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Almost every FA contract he signs is a 1-year deal. I don't mind the "prove-it" approach, but what happens when most of the players play better than expected??

 

For example, this is a breakdown of all of our expected FA's next year:


 

RB:

Marlon Mack

Nyheim Hines

Jordan Wilkins

 

WR: 
TY Hilton

Zach Pascal

 

TE: Moe-Allie Cox

 

OT: Eric Fisher

Braeden Smith

Sam Tevi

Julian Davenport

 

OG: Mark Glowinski

Will Holden

C: Joey Hunt

 

DE: Isaac Rochell

Al-Muhammed

Kameko Turay

 

DT: Tyquan Lewis

Taylor Stallworth


LB: Zaire Franklin

Matthew Adams

 

CB:

Xavier Rhodes

TJ Carrie

 

S:

Sean Davis

George Odum

Rolan Mulligan 

 

 

 

That is literally 80% of our depth players & 20% of our starters up for a new contract. The stars will obviously be resigned. However, I can't remember an off-season with so many FA's save the 2012 re-build.

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Random thoughts:

How many even make the team?

How many get traded?

How many get injured?

What's the strength of the FA market next year?

What's the strength of the Draft next year?

Comp Picks.

'Better than expected' doesn't mean irreplaceable.

 

There's a price to be paid for having a better roster. It'll work itself out.

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Part of it is about this specific off-season with the all the depressed market and much less money available than previously expected. On one side - teams don't have the money to give and on the other hand players prefer to take one year deals and wait for the market to normalize next year and test FA with more teams willing to give them more lucrative deals. 

 

On a Ballard-specific note - he doesn't like giving long-term money for pieces that are not key building blocks of this team. Even when he's given 3 year deals in the past, most of them have had an out after year 1 with little or no dead money on the cap if we choose to cut the player. 

 

The one year deals have another plus too - they turn into potential compensatory picks if they perform and we are unable to re-sign them. 

 

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Feel like it comes down to comp picks.  The guys real good FA's we have will resign.  The others go out to the market and see what their value is fairly quickly.  Also gives us a lot of flexibility going from year to year with good cap management.  Look at how many teams are having to cut guys just so they can get under the cap.

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46 minutes ago, polk_high_allstar said:

Feel like it comes down to comp picks.  The guys real good FA's we have will resign.  The others go out to the market and see what their value is fairly quickly.  Also gives us a lot of flexibility going from year to year with good cap management.  Look at how many teams are having to cut guys just so they can get under the cap.

That's what I assume it comes down to as well. I'm not in complete disagreement with it, but it feels as if there is going to be a lot of pressure to fill depth and some starter roles every off-season under this formula. 

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Gives you more options, if a guy plays well and you let him walk it helps with comp picks. Or you get to re evaluate the following season!

 

no need to bloat the roster with contracts longer than needed! 

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6 hours ago, Colts1324 said:

 

Almost every FA contract he signs is a 1-year deal. I don't mind the "prove-it" approach, but what happens when most of the players play better than expected??

 

For example, this is a breakdown of all of our expected FA's next year:


 

RB:

Marlon Mack

Nyheim Hines

Jordan Wilkins

 

WR: 
TY Hilton

Zach Pascal

 

TE: Moe-Allie Cox

 

OT: Eric Fisher

Braeden Smith

Sam Tevi

Julian Davenport

 

OG: Mark Glowinski

Will Holden

C: Joey Hunt

 

DE: Isaac Rochell

Al-Muhammed

Kameko Turay

 

DT: Tyquan Lewis

Taylor Stallworth


LB: Zaire Franklin

Matthew Adams

 

CB:

Xavier Rhodes

TJ Carrie

 

S:

Sean Davis

George Odum

Rolan Mulligan 

 

The biggest thing is he has guys in this list that will be resigned and others that he will fill with other random FA’s and draft picks. Braden Smith will be signed. Hines might be depending on price and Mack and Wilkins I see being replaced with depth pick-ups and Deon that we just grabbed as a UDFA. Other guys like majority of the o line guys will be signed based on fit and progression I think but still with cheap contracts. Lewis/Turay/Muhammad/Rochell are all looking at performance based stuff IMO. If they show up they can get the next contract. With this list I mainly see Lewis and either Rochell or Muhammad. Turay is an outlier. A huge year could get him money from someone else. With our draft we have already started to replace guys IMO. 
 

LB’s and S’s look to be easily replaced with other options. Odum could have another solid year and want more than what we offer. I hope we keep him because he is a ST ace. 
 

Rhodes and Hilton to me are gone. They are good locker room guys that allow others to have a year to get better but I highly doubt we bring them back. 
 

If cap jumps to 200+ million next year we can resign are guys and have money for depth and stay under cap still as we like to do. Ballard plays it smart and will get some comp picks next year IMO. 

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13 hours ago, Colts1324 said:

Almost every FA contract he signs is a 1-year deal. I don't mind the "prove-it" approach, but what happens when most of the players play better than expected??

 

For example, this is a breakdown of all of our expected FA's next year:


 

RB:

Marlon Mack

Nyheim Hines

Jordan Wilkins

 

WR: 
TY Hilton

Zach Pascal

 

TE: Moe-Allie Cox

 

OT: Eric Fisher

Braeden Smith

Sam Tevi

Julian Davenport

 

OG: Mark Glowinski

Will Holden

C: Joey Hunt

 

DE: Isaac Rochell

Al-Muhammed

Kameko Turay

 

DT: Tyquan Lewis

Taylor Stallworth


LB: Zaire Franklin

Matthew Adams

 

CB:

Xavier Rhodes

TJ Carrie

 

S:

Sean Davis

George Odum

Rolan Mulligan 

 

 

 

That is literally 80% of our depth players & 20% of our starters up for a new contract. The stars will obviously be resigned. However, I can't remember an off-season with so many FA's save the 2012 re-build.

 

OK......

 

You've conflated two issues in this post, and moved the goal-line in the process.

 

Your headline says "Why does Ballard love 1-year deals"...     and you list a large bunch of players who have received one-year deals.

 

But you've also lumped in with them, a bunch of players who are NOT one 1-year deals.    They are on the last year of their rookie contract.    Their 4-year rookie contract.    That's entirely DIFFERENT.   You listed, Hines, Wilkins, Smith, Turay, Lewis,  Adams and Franklin.   That's 7 players who are on the last year of their 4-year rookie contract.   You even included Glowinski, who is on the last year of his 3-year deal that Ballard signed him to.    8 players.   And they've all been lumped in with guys who got 1-year deals.

 

The reasons for all the 1-year deals are several.    One, 1-year deals keep motivation high.   Two,  1-year deals can be done with players at a young age because you have contractual leverage, like with Pascal and MAC and Odoms.    Three,  one year deals during this current strange Covid time is because the salary cap has gone down,  no one is quite sure how much it will go up next year?   So, better to do a one-year deal and then figure things out in a year or so when we all have a better idea on what the 22 cap will be and even the 23 cap.    Four,  things are going to get complicated, financially speaking, when we sign guys like Q, Darius and Braden to their Big Deals.   Plus, by then we might be talking about extending Wentz.   All that will be a big factor on our long-term approach to the team.

 

 

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All good posts on here. Essentially, the 1 year deal allows Ballard some flexibility and doesn't marry him to any individual player. If they do well, he can give them a new deal, if they don't... he can let them walk without any major repercussions (like paying a team to take them off our hands). 

 

Our main core of players will have their major deals worked out, and then the supporting players will be rotated in on a (possible) yearly basis.  

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21 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

OK......

 

You've conflated two issues in this post, and moved the goal-line in the process.

 

Your headline says "Why does Ballard love 1-year deals"...     and you list a large bunch of players who have received one-year deals.

 

But you've also lumped in with them, a bunch of players who are NOT one 1-year deals.    They are on the last year of their rookie contract.    Their 4-year rookie contract.    That's entirely DIFFERENT.   You listed, Hines, Wilkins, Smith, Turay, Lewis,  Adams and Franklin.   That's 7 players who are on the last year of their 4-year rookie contract.   You even included Glowinski, who is on the last year of his 3-year deal that Ballard signed him to.    8 players.   And they've all been lumped in with guys who got 1-year deals.

 

The reasons for all the 1-year deals are several.    One, 1-year deals keep motivation high.   Two,  1-year deals can be done with players at a young age because you have contractual leverage, like with Pascal and MAC and Odoms.    Three,  one year deals during this current strange Covid time is because the salary cap has gone down,  no one is quite sure how much it will go up next year?   So, better to do a one-year deal and then figure things out in a year or so when we all have a better idea on what the 22 cap will be and even the 23 cap.    Four,  things are going to get complicated, financially speaking, when we sign guys like Q, Darius and Braden to their Big Deals.   Plus, by then we might be talking about extending Wentz.   All that will be a big factor on our long-term approach to the team.

 

 

Excellent point. I didn't mean for it to come off as if I didn't know WHY he loves one-year deals as the title screams. More so, our off-seasons are going to potentially consist of a lot of tough decisions due to the fact that so many of our players will be FA's every year. 
 

I do appreciate the in-depth answer.

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56 minutes ago, Colts1324 said:

Excellent point. I didn't mean for it to come off as if I didn't know WHY he loves one-year deals as the title screams. More so, our off-seasons are going to potentially consist of a lot of tough decisions due to the fact that so many of our players will be FA's every year. 
 

I do appreciate the in-depth answer.

Yes....    our next office-season is going to be very strange and difficult.   Honestly,  it might make this off-season seem like a piece of cake.    
 

And you’re right, lots and lots of tough choices.  We may have to let go of players that today might seem inconceivable.  There are stories hinting that the expected big rise in the salary cap next season is not going to happen.  It will likely now happen in 2023, but not 2022. 
 

If memory serves....

The 2020 Salary Cap was $198m.

The 2021 Salary Cap is now $185m.

The word now is the 2022 SC will be $203m, a raise, but much lower than originally thought.

 

The big bump won’t hit until 2023 when new TV money fully kicks in. 

 

If all of this is true, decisions may have gotten much harder.   That said, this applies to all teams, and the advantage typically goes to teams with the most money AND the best front office. 
 

PS — Thanks for taking my post constructively the way it was intended and not personally.   Much appreciated. 

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On 5/10/2021 at 4:23 PM, JackOLantin said:

Gives you more options, if a guy plays well and you let him walk it helps with comp picks. Or you get to re evaluate the following season!

 

no need to bloat the roster with contracts longer than needed! 

Agreed

 

In many cases (Not all), it gives the player and the team BOTH better long term options

 

Its really the best case on Fisher

 

How do you evaluate the long term value on Fisher?

 

Some people say 50/50 to getting to prior level of ability, other people say 70% chance

 

Whichever you believe in, its still a big question

 

Fisher at 100% is worth 14-17 Mil per year

 

Fisher at 75% is worth less, maybe 3-5 Mill less

 

Fisher and the Colts dont know the level he can play

 

 

 

 

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13 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Yes....    our next office-season is going to be very strange and difficult.   Honestly,  it might make this off-season seem like a piece of cake.    
 

And you’re right, lots and lots of tough choices.  We may have to let go of players that today might seem inconceivable.  There are stories hinting that the expected big rise in the salary cap next season is not going to happen.  It will likely now happen in 2023, but not 2022. 
 

If memory serves....

The 2020 Salary Cap was $198m.

The 2021 Salary Cap is now $185m.

The word now is the 2022 SC will be $203m, a raise, but much lower than originally thought.

 

The big bump won’t hit until 2023 when new TV money fully kicks in. 

 

If all of this is true, decisions may have gotten much harder.   That said, this applies to all teams, and the advantage typically goes to teams with the most money AND the best front office. 
 

PS — Thanks for taking my post constructively the way it was intended and not personally.   Much appreciated. 


CORRECTION:  I’m now reading the 2021 Salary Cap is $182.5m.   I thought it had been bumped up to $185m.   Apparently not. 

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