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Fisher Signing 1 Year Deal


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2 hours ago, csmopar said:

Well we would keep our 1 next year.... maybe that’s the plan 

Not entirely true. It’s also a cap hit issue too. A lot of teams exhausted all methods possible to reduce their cap hits and that was before the draft. 

still if a elite tackle is available teams would cut players to get him signed its a extremely hard position to find . there are many teams still in need . 

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7 hours ago, Superman said:

 

What difference does it make what they expect? What actually happens is what matters. And Fisher playing in 2021 is very much up in the air. For him to play by the end of September would make him a major outlier.

What recent players have actually taken over a year to return from a torn Achilles? I can't think of any in recent memory. The timeline is pretty consistently around 9 months for guys now.

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1 minute ago, BlueCollarColts said:

What recent players have actually taken over a year to return from a torn Achilles? I can't think of any in recent memory. The timeline is pretty consistently around 9 months for guys now.

 

For example... ?

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2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Weren't you just voicing disagreement with the Colts moves in the 'are they falling behind thread' last week?

yes i was but this forum convinced me that ballard ranks with the elite gms

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10 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

For example... ?

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214687320300054

 

They've done studies on it. TL;DR, out of a sample size of 13: 2 failed to recover. Those that recovered had an average time of about 10 months. Now this is a study on basketball players, which requires a lore more movement and planting than an offensive tackle in football would require and is a more common injury in the sport as a result. I would assume the results would be slightly more promising for football lineman. 

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4 minutes ago, BlueCollarColts said:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214687320300054

 

They've done studies on it. TL;DR, out of a sample size of 13: 2 failed to recover. Those that recovered had an average time of about 10 months. Now this is a study on basketball players, which requires a lore more movement and planting than an offensive tackle in football would require and is a more common injury in the sport as a result. I would assume the results would be slightly more promising for football lineman. 

 

Thanks for posting. I feel compelled to point out that this article doesn't show anything about players returning to play after just nine months. 

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3 hours ago, shasta519 said:

 

Even setting aside Mack, who is on a cheap flyer contract, the odds that Dayo and Fisher both RTP is ~53%. That's quite the gamble for a $9.5M and a 2nd round pick.

 

 

You really can't use the RTP rate that way because of confounding variables that are within the population used, for example not all those players were starters or high draft picks, and how many of those players were already on the roster bubble.

In my research class we talk about the miss use of study results and how someone will grab one statistic and make wild claims from it (You see it alot in nutrition research and fad diets).

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1 hour ago, Wentzszn said:

Pats source is clearly Ballard lol. He is right here though. It’s a long season.  It actually provides some insurance also if Tevi can’t cut it. 
 

 

Pat have golf-glove tan on that pale-looking left hand?

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52 minutes ago, BlueCollarColts said:

What recent players have actually taken over a year to return from a torn Achilles? I can't think of any in recent memory. The timeline is pretty consistently around 9 months for guys now.

 

Finish the conclusion so that the end result is clear for everybody. The only study recently that evaluated those with an average 9 months to return to sport also concluded this-

 

"While the incidence of Achilles tendon ruptures in NFL players, especially in the preseason, has increased substantially, more players are returning to play after injury and with better post-injury performance as compared to the previous two decades. These injuries should still be considered potentially career-altering as 26% of players never return to play after Achilles tendon ruptures and there is still a net decrease in power-ratings (performance) by 22% for those who do return."

 

I ask, is a 75% to 80% Eric Fisher better than a 95%-99% Tevi?  I'm curious.  I hope so.

 

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4 hours ago, richard pallo said:

2nd best news of the day. That's what we are looking for.  A legitimate reason for optimism. 

Some around here won’t like the sound of this.

  They’ll have to put effort into finding another complaint to whine about.

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3 hours ago, Nesjan3 said:

Ballards really rolling the dice, LT and a 2nd round pick both coming off Achilles injuries which used to be a career ender no doubt about it, and Wentz who may or may not get back to winning football.

 

I wouldnt be surprised if we regress slightly this year, these moves could work out long term though if both guys recover from their injuries and Wentz settles in to his new team.

You forgot Mack.

Every pick and sign is a risk.  Coming off an injury of any kind is only one of a multitude of risks.

  The way Ballard is frugal, in general, with picks, cap $, etc, i find it hard to believe he would throw all that conservative nature out the window if he didnt feel really good about the potential and risk.

  We sit around like we know better than a man who has literal experts in the medical community to advise him.  Its kinda funny.

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8 hours ago, Mitch Connors said:

I love the signing for the obvious potential he brings but...anytime I see a timeline with the Colts and an injury I cringe. Based on the Colts saying mid-September Im expecting him game 5 of 2027 

Julian Blackmon ring a bell?  Former #1 overall pick in a position of need and all we can do is complain?

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Competing thoughts

  • Injury aside, he was the best option
  • Injury and age make this an uber dice roll
  • from all the timelines and data I've read here and other places, just can't see September happening. Hope I'm wrong.
  • 9.4 seemed high to me given the situation. Hope it's heavy on conditions (games played).
  • Feels like Ballard's past with him had a decent impact to the decision. Not sure it that's a good thing. 

 

My meaningless prediction, he misses at least the first 4-6 games.

 

Anyway see contract terms?

 

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7 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

You forgot Mack.

Every pick and sign is a risk.  Coming off an injury of any kind is only one of a multitude of risks.

  The way Ballard is frugal, in general, with picks, cap $, etc, i find it hard to believe he would throw all that conservative nature out the window if he didnt feel really good about the potential and risk.

  We sit around like we know better than a man who has literal experts in the medical community to advise him.  Its kinda funny.

 

I agree that we should accept the fact that Ballard has some good docs advising him.

 

This doesn't have the feel of a conservative or frugal move though. More money than I thought given the circumstance, and he's taking a Vegas dice roll that Fisher recovers quickly. 

 

Mack was a cheap sign for depth at RB. Pure luxury IMO. Fisher wasn't cheap, and expected to man one of our most important positions. It'll make things interesting that's for sure.

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5 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Competing thoughts

  • Injury aside, he was the best option
  • Injury and age make this an uber dice roll
  • from all the timelines and data I've read here and other places, just can't see September happening. Hope I'm wrong.
  • 9.4 seemed high to me given the situation. Hope it's heavy on conditions (games played).
  • Feels like Ballard's past with him had a decent impact to the decision. Not sure it that's a good thing. 

 

My meaningless prediction, he misses at least the first 4-6 games.

 

Anyway see contract terms?

 

  • Injury aside, he was the best option - Yes, former #1 overall pick and we have depth to get by the first 2-4 games.
  • Injury and age make this an uber dice roll.  1yr deal for a former #1 overall pick = a great talent added to our already line.
  • from all the timelines and data I've read here and other places, just can't see September happening. Hope I'm wrong. - Were built to win regardless in the first 2-4 games but not long term.  We will be okay.
  • 9.4 seemed high to me given the situation. Hope it's heavy on conditions (games played). - Again, a former #1 overall pick just got added to our already #1 OL in the NFL.  Were lucky it didn't cost us $20 MIL to be honest!  Imagine today how PATRICK MAHOMES feels that the #1 threat to his team just signed their LT over injury issues.  I guarantee it doesn't sit well with him.
  • Feels like Ballard's past with him had a decent impact to the decision. Not sure it that's a good thing. - See above
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1 hour ago, BlueCollarColts said:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214687320300054

 

They've done studies on it. TL;DR, out of a sample size of 13: 2 failed to recover. Those that recovered had an average time of about 10 months. Now this is a study on basketball players, which requires a lore more movement and planting than an offensive tackle in football would require and is a more common injury in the sport as a result. I would assume the results would be slightly more promising for football lineman. 

I don't think basketball players are hit by 300 pound men all game and used as a tackling sled. It seems to me there would be much more wear and tear on an OT's Achilles than a baseball player.

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1 minute ago, ColtJax said:

I don't think basketball players are hit by 300 pound men all game and used as a tackling sled. It seems to me there would be much more wear and tear on an OT's Achilles than a baseball player.

 

I think the reasoning is there is much more stress with all the jumping in basketball. I read that the "vertical " stress in BB is greater than the "horizontal " stress inFB.

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We should just accept the fact the day we live in with modern medicine there isn't many injuries out there that are more than 8 months recovery.  I get compound fractures and staff infections but actual muscle or tendon tears are repairable in todays medicine!!!

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9 minutes ago, BornHoosier said:
  • Injury aside, he was the best option - Yes, former #1 overall pick and we have depth to get by the first 2-4 games.
  • Injury and age make this an uber dice roll.  1yr deal for a former #1 overall pick = a great talent added to our already line.
  • from all the timelines and data I've read here and other places, just can't see September happening. Hope I'm wrong. - Were built to win regardless in the first 2-4 games but not long term.  We will be okay.
  • 9.4 seemed high to me given the situation. Hope it's heavy on conditions (games played). - Again, a former #1 overall pick just got added to our already #1 OL in the NFL.  Were lucky it didn't cost us $20 MIL to be honest!  Imagine today how PATRICK MAHOMES feels that the #1 threat to his team just signed their LT over injury issues.  I guarantee it doesn't sit well with him.
  • Feels like Ballard's past with him had a decent impact to the decision. Not sure it that's a good thing. - See above

Chiefs just replaced him with a younger (by 5 years) Orlando Brown who grades high, and added Joe Thuney at LG, another stud. I guarantee you Mahomes is fine with what has transpired lol. And we're not the #1 threat to KC right now. 

 

Yes Fisher was a #1 pick, but he's 30, and recovering from a major injury. He's also had some up and down years. 

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1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

Thanks for posting. I feel compelled to point out that this article doesn't show anything about players returning to play after just nine months. 

I did say *around* 9 months, there are various studies but most of them place the ballpark around there. 10 months is a possibility but from everything I have read on Fisher he's ballparked at August (7 months which I would find hard to believe unless the GM just meant limited practice) to October (which would be about 9 months in his case).

 

Regardless, the Colts very clearly felt good about where his rehab progress is and about his ability to play football in 4-5 months. 

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1 hour ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Finish the conclusion so that the end result is clear for everybody. The only study recently that evaluated those with an average 9 months to return to sport also concluded this-

 

"While the incidence of Achilles tendon ruptures in NFL players, especially in the preseason, has increased substantially, more players are returning to play after injury and with better post-injury performance as compared to the previous two decades. These injuries should still be considered potentially career-altering as 26% of players never return to play after Achilles tendon ruptures and there is still a net decrease in power-ratings (performance) by 22% for those who do return."

 

I ask, is a 75% to 80% Eric Fisher better than a 95%-99% Tevi?  I'm curious.  I hope so.

 

A 100% Tevi might be slightly better than a 75% Fisher (going based off their careers) but I think the goal is a 75% Fisher is going to be closer to 90% Fisher by the time the playoffs roll around. I don't think anyone is expecting Fisher to be his old self from Day 1, but where he is a few months after returning you'd hope is at a better place than he is when he immediately returns.

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26 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

One year deals aren’t risky to me. 

The deal in itself isn't the risk. Hedging your bets on Fisher playing this year and playing at a high level is the risk. There's a possibility that there's a setback and we never see him on the field for us, leaving us to field Tevi, Davenport, or Holden at LT all season long. Maybe he does come back, but is not close to where he was before and becomes a liability on our OL. There's a lot of risk in this move and the 1 year deal isn't it.

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Just now, Wentzszn said:

Still not risky. It’s off the books anyway.

9.5 million isn't the risk.   The fact he may never play is the risk.   I don't care about the money.  It isn't mine

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3 minutes ago, Shive said:

The deal in itself isn't the risk. Hedging your bets on Fisher playing this year and playing at a high level is the risk. There's a possibility that there's a setback and we never see him on the field for us, leaving us to field Tevi, Davenport, or Holden at LT all season long. Maybe he does come back, but is not close to where he was before and becomes a liability on our OL. There's a lot of risk in this move and the 1 year deal isn't it.

If that happens it happens. Only person out the money is Irsay. Taking a risk on Fisher is good insurance. No matter how many games he plays. 

1 minute ago, jvan1973 said:

9.5 million isn't the risk.   The fact he may never play is the risk.   I don't care about the money.  It isn't mine

Irsay is the only one that is losing money. It isn’t stopping us from signing anyone we want and it’s off the books if it doesn’t work out.  I think of it as added insurance in a long season.

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1 minute ago, Wentzszn said:

If that happens it happens. Only person out the money is Irsay. Taking a risk on Fisher is good insurance. No matter how many games he plays. 

What if it's zero?   That sounds like a terrible insurance policy.  

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1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

Chiefs just replaced him with a younger (by 5 years) Orlando Brown who grades high, and added Joe Thuney at LG, another stud. I guarantee you Mahomes is fine with what has transpired lol. And we're not the #1 threat to KC right now. 

 

Yes Fisher was a #1 pick, but he's 30, and recovering from a major injury. He's also had some up and down years. 

A couple 3rd round picks that didn't get a 2nd contract yay I'm glad Mahomes is fine with that!  If our Colts are not the #1 threat to the Chiefs, who is?  Buffalo?  Tennessee?  Baltimore?  We went into the playoffs w/o a LT and the WORST coaching experience in the history of the NFL, missed kicks (AGAIN) but somehow still had the game in our hands to the very end only to be defeated from everything already mentioned.  No Turray = NO pass rush no matter how many ALL PROS we have in Buckner or Leonard just doesn't matter unless we get to the QB and we clearly did not.  This staff took notice and that is why they invested our first 2 picks on DL pass rushers no matter the cost.  This staff had a clear cut back up plan if the draft didn't offer our #1 need in LT and they addressed it by a former #1 overall pick that should be healthy come OCT.  A steal in my book and finally this staff went after the big fish on the market vs what many here call CAMP FODDER.  Project this team come Jan and I think you will be happy with the outcome.  30yrs old is nothing vs all other options.

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3 minutes ago, Shive said:

The deal in itself isn't the risk. Hedging your bets on Fisher playing this year and playing at a high level is the risk. There's a possibility that there's a setback and we never see him on the field for us, leaving us to field Tevi, Davenport, or Holden at LT all season long. Maybe he does come back, but is not close to where he was before and becomes a liability on our OL. There's a lot of risk in this move and the 1 year deal isn't it.

 

Exactly this.

 

That being said, Villanueva was gone and depending who you listen to we either did or didn't have any interest. Some people said we had possible interest in Leno. Maybe we did, maybe we did not.

 

I saw nothing linking us at all to interest in a guy like Okung.

 

So to me if the option is "Sign Fisher and hope for the best" or "Stay with what we have and just roll w/ Tevi, Davenport, Holden" then this signing is a home run.

 

I think the only issue is our fans looking through the prism of "Risky signing or Fisher instead of a steady Leno". There-in lies the rub. If we really did pick Fisher over Leno then I agree w some fans being concerned on the risk/reward factor especially with only a 1 year deal where some of that year could be missed.

 

If we really truly were never going to pay what it would take to bring Leno in or we did not have nearly as strong of interest in Leno as some hoped or as we showed in Fisher, then this Fisher deal was a big win rather than just sitting on what we had.

 

I wonder if we will ever know the true interest in Leno or what any discussion w his camp were like if they occurred. 

 

 

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40 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

I agree that we should accept the fact that Ballard has some good docs advising him.

 

This doesn't have the feel of a conservative or frugal move though. More money than I thought given the circumstance, and he's taking a Vegas dice roll that Fisher recovers quickly. 

 

Mack was a cheap sign for depth at RB. Pure luxury IMO. Fisher wasn't cheap, and expected to man one of our most important positions. It'll make things interesting that's for sure.

The Mack comment was just to point out it was 3 with achilles, not two.  It had no other connection with Dayo or Fisher.

 

  I’m looking at it this way.  Ballard has been working this since FA... really before that.  FA didnt pan out for a starter at LT  which happens.  But we may have the beat depth this year than we’ve had for a long time.  And ALL across the line.  So then  The draft fell the way it did.  I can understand that.  Meanwhile Ballrd has still been working it.  Fisher?  Leno?   The history he has is a good thing.  It always is.  You know them better, in all ways.  
  Ballard felt “good enuff” to take the risk, cuz if it hits...... bang!   
And i have a feeling Ballard is gonna still be looking to improve our “plan B” if Fisher is slow to return.  Cuts will offer some help as well I’m sure.  I’m not sure Fisher is the last addition/change to the OL mix.

Just having Him in the building could help at the position as well.  Lots of knowledge , vet leadership, and dudes respect him.

  Who knows what could happen, bit I’m more comfortable today than yesterday about the LT position. Hoping for the best.

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7 minutes ago, Shive said:

The deal in itself isn't the risk. Hedging your bets on Fisher playing this year and playing at a high level is the risk. There's a possibility that there's a setback and we never see him on the field for us, leaving us to field Tevi, Davenport, or Holden at LT all season long. Maybe he does come back, but is not close to where he was before and becomes a liability on our OL. There's a lot of risk in this move and the 1 year deal isn't it.

Lets just say Fisher doesn't come back 100% healthy until playoffs.  If we can somehow still manage to make the playoffs with our star studded roster and add a talent like Fisher for the playoffs, isn't that the risk you take?  Again, this is the least likely scenario that he returns in Jan opposed to Sept/Oct.  All I read for months is I hope the colts sign Eric Fisher, a former #1 overall pick and then all the doom and gloom.  

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8 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

If that happens it happens. Only person out the money is Irsay. Taking a risk on Fisher is good insurance. No matter how many games he plays. 

I literally just said money isn't the risk here.

 

Essentially we are saying that we are ok with starting Tevi all season long and if by some chance Fisher is back and ready to play, we'll get higher level LT play for a portion of the season.

 

A positive is that if Fisher comes back and is still able to play at a high level, we might be able to parlay that into a multi year deal and have LT locked up for another 2-3 years.

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