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Fisher Signing 1 Year Deal


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Let me get this straight, 9 mil is too much for a pro bowl LT at a spot of need?  Yes I understand healing, return to for etc but come on half a year of play would be market share at that price.  We had a player making way more than that last year who played like 5 snaps. Also if he would have signed with another team for that the same would have said Ballard too cheap to make that happen.  If all works out we can sign to additional years and he grows comfortable with this team win win situation.

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Just now, Superman said:

 

LOL

 

Still waiting on the details. Half of the $9.4m might be playing time bonuses, in which case this makes more sense. I'm not out on it, just don't think he'll be back in September, and if something goes wrong he might not play at all.

 

A two year deal would have more room for cap flexibility, and would give us a better market position, I think. 

I've been thinking about a way to break it down... 

 

What do you think is the probability distribution of his return? Where does it peak? Half-way through the season? Lets say it's right smack in the middle. If you are paying for half a season of a above average LT, you probably need to pay about 9-10M IF he keeps his level of play? Having in mind he was just checked by Colts doctors, I would say they probably think this is reasonable expectation. 

 

Now what do you think is the chance he keeps his level of play from the last several years(Lets say about AC level)? This is the real question here and I'm more worried on that axis of uncertainty than on whether he will be able to play at some point this year... 

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1 minute ago, Shepman said:

Let me get this straight, 9 mil is too much for a pro bowl LT at a spot of need?  Yes I understand healing, return to for etc but come on half a year of play would be market share at that price.  We had a player making way more than that last year who played like 5 snaps.

The nine million makes perfect sense if they expect him to miss playing time.

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2 minutes ago, Shepman said:

Let me get this straight, 9 mil is too much for a pro bowl LT at a spot of need?  Yes I understand healing, return to for etc but come on half a year of play would be market share at that price.  We had a player making way more than that last year who played like 5 snaps. Also if he would have signed with another team for that the same would have said Ballard too cheap to make that happen.  If all works out we can sign to additional years and he grows comfortable with this team win win situation.

 

That's a slightly binary, and slightly over simplified outline of the situation. I don't think anyone is saying it's too much for Fisher if he was starting Game 1 at his previous level of play. 

 

The question is when is he back, and at what level. The FO clearly have a level of confidence he will contribute in some way or shape this year, but the actual terms will give more insight into how confident they feel.

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5 minutes ago, JediXMan said:

I was hoping for a 2 year deal with Leno.  At least with him he starts right away. Man they must be confident he doesn’t a lot  any games and isn’t rusty.

I was hoping for the same thing.  

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1 minute ago, Nickster said:

I'm not disagreeing with you in the least on this topic.  

 

I guess I typed in the correct thing into GOOGLE.  Here is an article that probably pretty much answers why it's possible that this guy can play soon.   https://physicians.dukehealth.org/articles/new-achilles-tendon-rupture-repair-technique-saves-cost-time

 

I read that also. First saw it last week (either in the Dayo thread, or the previous LT thread), and saw it again today. It states they've made some advancements in the method used for the operation, which makes the procedure easier and faster, thereby saving money. It doesn't say those advancements have any impact on the patient's recovery. Maybe it reduces the risk of post-operative infection, but at this point in Fisher's recovery, that's not a major concern anyway as his wound should be mostly healed by now.

 

 

And maybe he's just a famously fast healer, and he'll be ready to go, and we call can laugh at my pessimism. I'd love that.

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2 hours ago, CR91 said:

Another one year deal. It's gonna be another busy off-season for the colts next year.

Fantastic,  a 1 years deal for a critical position and that player will likely not be available until late in the season.  May miss over half of the season with no guarantee he will ever be anything like his former self.  Sure, there are likely clauses to protect the Colts financially, but who is going to protect Wentz and the Colts season.  This is what you get when you wait until now....  ugly

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6 minutes ago, stitches said:

I've been thinking about a way to break it down... 

 

What do you think is the probability distribution of his return? Where does it peak? Half-way through the season? Lets say it's right smack in the middle. If you are paying for half a season of a above average LT, you probably need to pay about 9-10M IF he keeps his level of play? Having in mind he was just checked by Colts doctors, I would say they probably think this is reasonable expectation. 

 

Now what do you think is the chance he keeps his level of play from the last several years(Lets say about AC level)? This is the real question here and I'm more worried on that axis of uncertainty than on whether he will be able to play at some point this year... 

 

That's a reasonable way of looking at it. I think I would rather have spent less for a player with a higher floor (Leno presumably, or even Villanueva), especially on a one year deal.

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  Glad to see this but like many others there is a level of concern in regards to the injury.  I trust that Colts did all their due diligence and are expecting a full recovery and he will play sometime before mid season.

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11 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

I think I mis-remembered the table then, but you're right there was definite split. Did it define what it classed as a 'skill' position? I know a common long term effect of an achilles injury is a loss of explosiveness, which I can understand affecting say a RB/WR, but would equally think it applied to say a CB?

I'll try to find the article I was referring to.  I could be misrembering, but I do recall for sure that RBs were among if not the worst recovery rates.

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20 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

Only if they re-sign elsewhere and what we do in free agency.

  

 

Chances are really slim that we have anything other than very minor FA signings in 2022 . We have 3 star players that are needing extensions. Unless they walk , hard to imagine cap room for new FA players. So probably looking at a 3rd or 4th rounder if Fisher walks after  recovering  and playing well.

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2 hours ago, Smonroe said:

 

Why are you saying "strong chance"?  Just curious.  Is that based on past history of that injury or on a source?

 

 

 

This article gives a 9-month average recovery time for NFL players:

Epidemiology and Outcomes of Achilles Tendon Ruptures in the National Football League (sagepub.com)

 

This article gives a mean recovery time of 339.8 days:

Most football players returned to NFL after Achilles tendon repair (healio.com)

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2 hours ago, Superman said:

Such a weird deal. We're gonna pay him $9.4m to rehab his Achilles, and there's a strong chance he won't even play for us. 

 

Of course, the team and doctors know where he is. And maybe the deal is structured in a way that we're not on the hook if he can't go. But still... I'm on the fence on this one. Would have gone with a more reliable option.

My thoughts exactly

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I am guessing they have a good idea of where he is at with the injury rehab.  Leno was a good option and he seemed to be very interested. If they weren't comfortable enough with Fisher then I would think they would have just went after Leno....so I am going to trust Ballard here.

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14 minutes ago, Myles said:

I was hoping for the same thing.  


Best case scenario Tevi gets outplayed in training camp and preseason to the point they start someone else until Fisher arrives.

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8 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

As I take a step back and look what the Colts GM has done, I'm quite impressed. He took the two biggest areas of need, and took multiple shots at them. Perhaps not the exact shots some fans would have taken, but still, it was addressed....and certainly not ignored. 

 

To note?...a lot of complaining and hand wringing about not addressing the LT position, was simply emotional, and impatient. How many times must this be shown to fans? FA period does not end when the popular girls have all been asked to the dance. 

 

Ballard has assembled a lot of experience at the LT position for this upcoming season. Let's see how it plays out. I honestly don't care if Fisher only plays 6 games. He is a talented and experienced veteran who knows Frank and Chris. And, he is a one year expenditure. I see the makings of an oline in December, dipped in badassery. 

You mentioning him as a experienced vet will make him pretty valuable to help Tevi for whatever games he has to play.

Just now, JediXMan said:


Best case scenario Tevi gets outplayed in training camp and preseason to the point they start someone else until Fisher arrives.

The best case scenerio is Tevi plays great and maybe actually becomes the future LT.

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1 hour ago, chad72 said:

 

Will Holden would be the biggest competition, IMO. 

If that was the case then WHY did we sign BOTH Tevi and Davenport?   By the way, both of them got some guaranteed money.   The Colts don’t do that lightly. 

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6 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

I'm feeling apprehensive but hopeful this all works out. Until then, probably expect Tevi to take the snaps and start. 

 

This is the other element. I said before, during and after the draft that I think they're okay with Te'vi, if he has to start. The Fisher signing is kind of a bet that he'll get back and be able to play at a reasonably high level, but if he doesn't, they're okay with Te'vi. 

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42 minutes ago, Superman said:

One last thing, not necessarily directed at your post, is that last week I was accused in no uncertain terms of being a Ballard bootlicker who never disagrees with anything the team does. Today, I'm voicing my disagreement with this move, based on typical recovery for players with this injury, and every response is 'the team knows what they're doing.' Kind of ironic, IMO.

Hey, us bootlickers have to stick together!  lol.

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Regarding achilles recoveries, a few things stuck out to me:

1. After Ballard, drafted Dayo he addressed his achilles injury and referenced Mack's recovery.  He said Mack was ready to go at about the 7 month mark in his recovery

2. Brandon Brooks massive OG for Eagles tore his achilles in January a few years ago and was starting in week 1 the following season.

3. Derrick Johnson ex chiefs LB - 12/8/16 tore his achilles and was back practicing in training camp on approx 7/25.

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3 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

He has plenty of starts and started for us last season.

I wouldn't call 8 starts in 3 seasons plenty. 

 

Still, very limited action compared to Davenport and Tevi

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3 minutes ago, bertjones7 said:

Regarding achilles recoveries, a few things stuck out to me:

1. After Ballard, drafted Dayo he addressed his achilles injury and referenced Mack's recovery.  He said Mack was ready to go at about the 7 month mark in his recovery

2. Brandon Brooks massive OG for Eagles tore his achilles in January a few years ago and was starting in week 1 the following season.

3. Derrick Johnson ex chiefs LB - 12/8/16 tore his achilles and was back practicing in training camp on approx 7/25.

 

There's a lot we don't know - extent of the injury, etc.  Plus different people heal differently.

 

I don't think anyone would disagree that Ballard did his homework on this signing.  If the Colts think he will be playing by October (according to Holder), it's a great pickup.

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1 minute ago, jvan1973 said:

I wouldn't call 8 starts in 3 seasons plenty. 

 

Still, very limited action compared to Davenport and Tevi

Well you just asked if he had started and I proved he had. 

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55 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Now that this is out of the way I'm expecting a couple of extensions before the season starts.  This deal is very friendly.  I can now see us signing another FA or two if we want.  This puts Ertz on the radar if released. 

I hope you’re right, but my thought is the opposite might be true.   That we might make a move or two, but small.   And we’d more likely to sit and weight for the final cutdown date in September to see who becomes available? 

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29 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I read that also. First saw it last week (either in the Dayo thread, or the previous LT thread), and saw it again today. It states they've made some advancements in the method used for the operation, which makes the procedure easier and faster, thereby saving money. It doesn't say those advancements have any impact on the patient's recovery. Maybe it reduces the risk of post-operative infection, but at this point in Fisher's recovery, that's not a major concern anyway as his wound should be mostly healed by now.

 

 

And maybe he's just a famously fast healer, and he'll be ready to go, and we call can laugh at my pessimism. I'd love that.

superman GIF

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14 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

What makes you say that?   Has he ever been in an NFL game?

 

Started vs Steelers last season when Castanzo was banged up. Just going based on Colts history here.

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3 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Well you just asked if he had started and I proved he had. 

 

Fresh off making the majority of those starts, he couldn't stick with the Colts PS so I'm not sure you can read too much into it. Tevi has more pedigree as a true tenured starter than Holden and Davenport certainly, though mostly at RT IIRC.

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4 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I hope you’re right, but my thought is the opposite might be true.   That we might make a move or two, but small.   And we’d more likely to sit and weight for the final cutdown date in September to see who becomes available? 

 

I agree that they'll probably wait for cutdowns, but I won't be surprised if they pick up Ertz (assuming a cap friendly deal).  

 

He'd be a friendly target for Wentz and would fit into the offense in no time.  

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25 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

If that was the case then WHY did we sign BOTH Tevi and Davenport?   By the way, both of them got some guaranteed money.   The Colts don’t do that lightly. 

 

Oh sorry, definitely my bad. I totally glossed over Davenport. He had good results at LT when he played. Will Holden, in all fairness, he did fill in for Castanzo in the Steelers game last year, FWIW.

 

I came across this while checking Davenport's history with the Texans and this stood out to me:

 

https://www.battleredblog.com/2021/3/24/22348133/2021-nfl-free-agency-julien-davenport-expected-to-sign-with-the-indianapolis-colts

 

 

The following season, in 2018, the Texans trotted out Davenport at left tackle and Seantrel Henderson at right tackle. Henderson, who was bad and always injured, was predictably bad before he snapped his ankle in Houston’s Week One loss to the Patriots. This destroyed the Texans’ entire offensive line. Houston moved Davenport to right tackle, a position he’d never played before, and started rookie offensive lineman Martinas Rankin at left tackle after he missed the entirety of training camp. The results were disastrous. The Texans offensive line was beat around the edge snap after snap after snap. Eventually the Texans learned from their lesson and moved Davenport back to left tackle and placed Kendall Lamm at right tackle. Things got better after that. That being said, the Texans still stunted Davenport’s development and hurt his pass set by making him play a position he never played and never should have played.

 

Looks like Davenport is far more comfortable at LT based on this opinion piece.

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With so many in this thread screaming noooooo to Tevi playing at all, perhaps this would be a good time to insert this factoid here....

 

Last season, 2020, Sam Tevi started over 1,000 snaps for the Chargers and gave up the following....

 

*** 2 sacks

*** 4 penalties

 

That's it.   2 sacks, 4 penalties.   Yes, yes, I know all about his pff score.   It’s practically wall papered to this website now.  Just saying, playing with much better teammates and much better coaching, it’s not unreasonable to think Tevi might play better for the Colts than for the Chargers. 

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5 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

 

I agree that they'll probably wait for cutdowns, but I won't be surprised if they pick up Ertz (assuming a cap friendly deal).  

 

He'd be a friendly target for Wentz and would fit into the offense in no time.  

I’d love that too.   Though I suspect Philly will hold in to him till the cutdown hoping a team will trade for Ertz and the Eagles would finally get a pick. 

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4 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

With so many in this thread screaming noooooo to Tevi playing at all, perhaps this would be a good time to insert this factoid here....

 

Last season, 2020, Sam Tevi started over 1,000 snaps for the Chargers and gave up the following....

 

*** 2 sacks

*** 4 penalties

 

That's it.   2 sacks, 4 penalties.   Yes, yes, I know all about his pff score.   It’s practically wall peppered to this website now.  Just saying, playing with much better teammates and much better coaching, it’s not unreasonable to think Tevi might play better for the Colts than for the Chargers. 

 

I'm not saying it's the case here because I didn't watch any film on Tevi.  But I know for a fact that a lot of people pay more attention to stats than to how a player actually plays.

 

Classic case - A RB rushes 19 times for 20 yards.  His team is getting trounced and the other team puts in their subs.  At the end of a game he breaks a meaningless TD for 80 yards.  He has 20 carries for 100 yards - a great 5 YPC!

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