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Are the Colts falling behind?


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On 5/6/2021 at 10:39 AM, EastStreet said:

Current Vegas Win totals (o/u).....

 

Colts - 10

Titans - 9.5

Jags - 6.5

Texans - 4.5

 

--------------------------

My opinion

Colts 10

Titans 9

Jags 8

Texans 8 (assuming Watson stays), 4 if he leaves

 


I think you’re a little to high on both Jags and Texans. Both still have many glaring holes. Having said that no matter how bad the Jags are they seem to play us tough lol.

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On 5/7/2021 at 8:35 AM, 07dleigh said:

Let's assume what I think we should assume: 

-We get at least average QB play from Wentz (We should assume this because he's only had one bad season and has been a top 3-8 QB all the others) (Wentz at his "average" is already more dynamic than Rivers)

-We have a healthy JT/Mack combo

-We sign a LT that gives us at least average LT play

-Kwity/Turay are at least average 

-Campbell.... well... yeah nevermind LOL

 

Tell is back giving us more depth/flexibility, Blackmon is second year and is a bonafide playmaker. Did we lose vets? yes. Are we more dynamic? yes.

 

I think the floor is the slightest bit lower and I think the ceiling is a lot higher. I mean if we get 2019 Wentz, we're going to the SB. I do NOT get why I'm reading that we apparently suck now :facepalm:

 

- Getting average play from Wentz is a fair assumption, but he has not been a top 3-8 QB in all of his other seasons but last year. He has only been a top 3-8 QB once in his career...2017. Setting aside his rookie season, he was top 10-12 (2018), top 15-20 (2019) and then last year. 

 

- Wentz is definitely more dynamic than Rivers, but we can't assume average play from Wentz will be an improvement over Rivers...because Rivers was a pretty damn good passer last season. He finished #8 in EPA/play and #12 in DVOA...much better than 2019 Wentz.

 

- Not to call out Blackmon, but he was mentioned here. Yes, he made some great plays early on...but other than the pretty fluky fumble against GB...he didn't even get his hand on a pass over the past 10 games (no INTs or PDs). Far from a bonafide anything at this point...but a promising player.

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1 hour ago, JediXMan said:


I think you’re a little to high on both Jags and Texans. Both still have many glaring holes. Having said that no matter how bad the Jags are they seem to play us tough lol.

 

I think those are numbers from the sportsbooks. W/L totals are typically conservative on the high end and the low end. Very hard to predict an NFL team winning 13+ games...and even more difficult to predict a team winning 4 or less. 

 

I could definitely see JAC scraping together a 7-10 record...maybe even 8-9. They have a new HC, a franchise QB prospect and a pretty strong group of playmakers on offense.

 

The latest number I saw for HOU was 3.5 though. But even with their turmoil, it's tough to bet on a team going 3-14 or worse over the course of a season.

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On 5/6/2021 at 11:05 AM, MPStack said:


I doubt the FO would pull the plug on Wentz, if the Colts aren’t playing well. And I do think, it’s a real possibility the Colts play worse in 2021. However, they won’t give up on Wentz after just one season. How well the Colts play in 2021, will heavily depend-on Wentz. Are the Colts getting the 2017 version of Wentz is the question. :dunno: That was four years ago. 
 

 

 

Yeah...Wentz would have to be hurt to not be playing. How could you spin benching Wentz to save your 1st round pick...not only to your fans but the locker room as well? Not only does it show that you made a big mistake, but it also shows you care more about draft picks than a vet QB...or about putting the team in the best position to win. 

 

The optics on that are terrible. And if they wouldn't bench JB in the back half of the 2019 season...they aren't benching a more accomplished QB...especially for a guy like Eason or Ehlinger.

 

I think the only way they move on from him would be some type of unfortunate bad injury (which hopefully doesn't happen). 

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21 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

I think those are numbers from the sportsbooks. W/L totals are typically conservative on the high end and the low end. Very hard to predict an NFL team winning 13+ games...and even more difficult to predict a team winning 4 or less. 

 

I could definitely see JAC scraping together a 7-10 record...maybe even 8-9. They have a new HC, a franchise QB prospect and a pretty strong group of playmakers on offense.

 

The latest number I saw for HOU was 3.5 though. But even with their turmoil, it's tough to bet on a team going 3-14 or worse over the course of a season.


I need to get used to 17 games. So 7-8 games is still in the realm of possibility. Having said that I still think they’ll struggle with Trevor.  That Defense will be bad. Also many holes at TE/WR. Being a rookie QB with no reliable TE is not a good recipe. It’s so bad they’re working out 34 year old Tebow lol.

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8 hours ago, JediXMan said:


I think you’re a little to high on both Jags and Texans. Both still have many glaring holes. Having said that no matter how bad the Jags are they seem to play us tough lol.

If TL works out, the sky is the limit for that O. 3 very good WRs, now they have a star RB who can run and catch. If Walker Little is a hit, the OL will be much improved as the season progresses. They need help at TE. Not sure Tebow is the answer lol. 

 

The D still needs help, but they've got some good pieces and a lot of the rooks from last year should take a nice jump. They added two nice DBs this draft too.

 

Jags were also hit hard by injury last year. Top 5 in man games lost. In short, things could click very well for them as the season progresses.

 

Texans fell apart in several areas last season. Not sure they will fall apart again like last year. But yes, maybe 8 is high. They should trade Watson and start over IMO.

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On 5/3/2021 at 10:31 AM, bluephantom87 said:

Ballard has had NONE of Bill's prior success as a gm because this is his first run yet I feel he's already drinking his own Kool-aid. Yes he has put together a "solid" team but the Colts are not elite and the gap is widening in the AFC. I guess in another 6 yrs we'll be ready at this pace BUT the rest of the NFL will not sit pat and wait.

I agree that at the end Polian was just trying to outhink the field and led to some crappy draft choices, however, in 1998 he took Peyton instead of Leaf and then in 1999 he took James instead of Williams - two of the best choices ever considering what everyone was saying at the time.

 

As far as Ballard is concerned, his building through the draft with shrewd free agent signings has proven to be successful. Imagine if Luck had not unexpectantly retired you would be singing a VERY different tune my friend. His roster building coupled with Lucks talent would mean we'd be playing in, or for, the big dance every year. The fact of the matter is we are on QB number 4 in his tenure with the hopes that he will return to his top ten level of play and lead this roster to the promised land.

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