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Are the Colts falling behind?


bluephantom87

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Now that the dust has settled on the 2021 draft do you think the Colts have closed the gap in the AFC among the title contenders? I ask this question because Ballard chooses to build mostly through the draft so his margin for error is slim and his success rate for those picks need to be higher at this point (year 5) to leapfrog some of the elite in the AFC to reach a SB.

 

By most accounts for the upcoming 2021 season through FA and the draft teams like the Chiefs, Bills, Steelers, Ravens and Titans have been aggressive and have gotten even better on paper by adding some playmakers at the SKILL positions and by addressing set needs. While young ultra talented teams like the Browns and Dolphins are closing fast.

 

I personally did not like the Colts draft this year and many sites thought they did a lot of reaching, had some head scratchers and didn't address their biggest need at LT in a very deep and talented field. Is Ballard starting to show that he's "overrated" with the hype or is he simply a guy who can put together a SOLID team at best and give good sound bites? I'm starting to feel the latter.

 

Seems like Ballard is using the Polian blueprint (build through the draft with limited FA use) which led Polian all the way to Canton. Over the years Polian drafted either special or HOF players at the SKILL position spots. With those type of players on a solid or above average team it usually gets you to the big dance or close to it. Polian did it with Buffalo, got an expansion team (Carolina) one game away from a SB, won 2 Grey Cups with 2 different teams in the Canadian league and built the one of the winningest teams of the decade in Indy.

 

As his tenure in Indy ended Polian's last few drafts started becoming what many would classify as reaches (injured players/low talent) and his I know more than you attitude started hurting the team. All came full circle once Peyton got hurt and you saw on FULL display how far the talent level had dropped. Ballard has had NONE of Bill's prior success as a gm because this is his first run yet I feel he's already drinking his own Kool-aid. Yes he has put together a "solid" team but the Colts are not elite and the gap is widening in the AFC. I guess in another 6 yrs we'll be ready at this pace BUT the rest of the NFL will not sit pat and wait.

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Its a challenge. 

 

Its not something that was unexpected.  When you have to replace a QB, a LT, a#1WR, a #1pass rusher, maybe a corner, these expensive positions are hard to replace in less than several years.  

 

This treading water was going to happen.  Saw it 3 to 4 years ago.

 

We knew AC and TY were going to get old.  We knew we have never had a pass rusher since Mathis or a corner since Vontae.  Then other players either didn't work out or left.

 

But, maybe the new players will work out fine and the Colts will advance.  We'll see.

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It's going to depend on a lot of things.

 

#1: Carson Wentz. People forget we just picked up a new QB who can play like a top 5 QB(or like a bottom 10 QB at his worst). If he plays to his potential, that will cover a lot of holes itself. We already have a lethal RB trio. 
 

Second: WR group: 

 

The Colts, IMO, believe Hilton can get back to being a top 20-25 WR this year with Wentz at the helm. They also believe Campbell has had freak injuries(he has), and can be a huge contributor in this offense. Pittman has shown he has a lot of promise, and I think they believe so too. Pascal is an AMAZING fourth option IMO. Phenomenal run blocker & is just as consistent as they come.
 

Third: Our young pass rushers:

 

It's all going to depend on the improvement at DE. This position is what causes the most disruption to QB's, and we lacked a consistent pass rush off either edge last year. 
If Turay finally stays healthy, we will have a 8 sack a year guy right there. Lewis, per Ballard's words, is expected to play a larger role this year. Paye & Dabo are going to be huge down the stretch IMO. This is an even LONGER season now. Muhammad and Isaac Rochelle are now the veterans at EDGE & I think they have a lot of potential to take a leap themselves with a larger role. 
 

 

 

I'm not overly worried about LT at this point. If we were in that bad of shape, we would push to sign Fisher or Alejandro V. Okung is out there too for competition. People are freaking out about LT, but the reality is, I trust Tevi more than any tackle that was available at 54 & beyond Week 1. Tevi isn't great, but he could be a lot worse. MANY rookie LT's struggle mightily their first year. 

 

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22 minutes ago, bluephantom87 said:

 

 

I personally did not like the Colts draft this year and many sites thought they did a lot of reaching, had some head scratchers and didn't address their biggest need at LT in a very deep and talented field. Is Ballard starting to show that he's "overrated" with the hype or is he simply a guy who can put together a SOLID team at best and give good sound bites? I'm starting to feel the latter.

 

 

Overall, I like the draft.  Getting Paye at 21 was unexpected by all.  I like the second round pick as well.   Huge long armed player

We will see how Wentz performs.   You start with a "solid" team before you can go anywhere else.   You act like that is a negative.  

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Personally, I want to have a GM who drinks his own Kool-Aid. You have to believe in your plan and can't second guess everything because Mel Kiper or USA Today or half the fans on this forum don't agree with it. I understand that there is a huge desire for NFL content online and on TV so guys like Kiper, and Jeremiah, and Prisco have to give out draft grades the second that Mr. Irrelevant finishes crossing the stage. But let's be honest, can you really judge what a draft class is going to do before they have even signed their rookie contracts much less step foot on the field? Let's not forget that with our 3rd round pick (and probable 1st next yr) we picked up our starting QB. I think if Wentz plays like he did previously for Reich that will cover some the perceived deficiencies on the OL. I'll admit I'm not high on the idea of Tevi starting at LT, but I think that if he is the starter that being beside Big Q is going to help make him better. I think we should at least let the guys hit the field for practice or two before we judge this class.

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Wentz as a Colt is a complete unknown.  Could he come in, out of the gate, and play to Phil's level?  Yes.  The problem is losing Castonzo is now huge.  If the O-line drops off some, if the running game drops off some, playing at that level is no longer good enough.  You won't be able to run the ball and game manage victories like you did for much of 2020.  With trying to rehabilitate Wentz and considering what you have as a WR corps, you need the elite O-line to make it work, to make a playoff run in 2021.

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1 minute ago, AwesomeAustin said:

Rivers, Houston and Autry didn’t get it done.  We have replaced them with younger players with more upside. Time for our staff to get to work. 

yes they need to make great decisions on personal and play calling if we are going to compete for our division, tougher schedule this season and tenn and jax are much improved

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The goal is to win the division first.  The Colts now play in a division with three good QBs (assuming Watson stays in Houston) and the best running back in football.  Being able to control the line of scrimmage on defense is going to be huge for the Colts vs these teams.  Ballard took guys who if they pan out should give the Colts the best d-line in the division to go with the best o-line in the division.  You will win a lot of games in the NFL with that.  

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48 minutes ago, Indyfan4life said:

I'm calling it now. There will be at least 10 more posts about the draft before preseason starts,

Agreed. To be fair the saying on here has been; "dont worry that the Colts did nothing in FA, Ballard will fix it in the draft."

Now the saying is "dont worry about the draft Ballard will fix it during FA."

I'm worried next the saying will be; "Don't worry about 2021, Ballard will fix it in 2022."

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1 minute ago, GoColts8818 said:

The goal is to win the division first.  The Colts now play in a division with three good QBs (assuming Watson stays in Houston) and the best running back in football.  Being able to control the line of scrimmage on defense is going to be huge for the Colts vs these teams.  Ballard took guys who if they pan out should give the Colts the best d-line in the division to go with the best o-line in the division.  You will win a lot of games in the NFL with that.  

yes a lot of ifs with unproven talent, not going to be easy

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52 minutes ago, Myles said:

Overall, I like the draft.  Getting Paye at 21 was unexpected by all.  I like the second round pick as well.   Huge long armed player

We will see how Wentz performs.   You start with a "solid" team before you can go anywhere else.   You act like that is a negative.  

 

Hey Myles... I also like the Paye pick but that was about all. I just didn't feel any of the other the picks will help get us to that elite status or help close the gap with the top teams in the AFC. Drafting an edge rusher coming off an achilles tear (will he be the same?) who might not even play till 2022 with your 2nd pick is VERY dicey especially when this was such a deep and talented draft at offensive tackle.

 

No that's not a negative to be a solid team IF you're content with maybe making the playoffs as a lower seed but if you're competing to hoist that Lombardi solid is not good enough.

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2 minutes ago, Mitch Connors said:

Agreed. To be fair the saying on here has been; "dont worry that the Colts did nothing in FA, Ballard will fix it in the draft."

Now the saying is "dont worry about the draft Ballard will fix it during FA."

I'm worried next the saying will be; "Don't worry about 2021, Ballard will fix it in 2022."

In fairness, he fixed most of the obvious holes with the draft

 

And, to be perfectly honest, no one knows how a draft will fall exactly till AFTER the draft

 

A good LT prospect MIGHT have slid within range of the 54th

 

Remember 

There are FAs with decent players still available (just fewer)

There will be LTs that will become available via future draft picks if we want to go that route

There MAY be a decent LT that is cut that could be an improvement over Tevi, become available at final cuts

 

We arent done IMHO

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1 hour ago, Myles said:

Overall, I like the draft.  Getting Paye at 21 was unexpected by all.  I like the second round pick as well.   Huge long armed player

We will see how Wentz performs.   You start with a "solid" team before you can go anywhere else.   You act like that is a negative.  

Unexpected... nah I had it pegged in January :P though it was more hopeful thinking than prediction lol

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Falling behind what/who? 

 

I feel like all anyone cares about is whether the team drafted players at positions of perceived need. 

 

The LT situation is way overblown. The Colts could start the worst LT in the league and still have a top ten OL. We picked up guys off the street late in the season last year, and still had good line play. They have a great stable of backs, TEs who can block, a QB who can move, and a coaching staff that promotes a line-friendly passing attack. I'd rather have a rock solid LT, but the freak-out over LT has become outrageous. And that's without acknowledging that just plugging a name at that position doesn't mean we have a rock solid LT. 

 

 

It's cool to not love this draft. I don't know that I like it at this point. But acting like the team is falling apart is getting old.

 

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Just now, Superman said:

Falling behind what/who? 

 

I feel like all anyone cares about is whether the team drafted players at positions of perceived need. 

 

The LT situation is way overblown. The Colts could start the worst LT in the league and still have a top ten OL. We picked up guys off the street late in the season last year, and still had good line play. They have a great stable of backs, TEs who can block, a QB who can move, and a coaching staff that promotes a line-friendly passing attack. I'd rather have a rock solid LT, but the freak-out over LT has become outrageous. And that's without acknowledging that just plugging a name at that position doesn't mean we have a rock solid LT. 

 

 

It's cool to not love this draft. I don't know that I like it at this point. But acting like the team is falling apart is getting old.

 

Seth Meyers Thank You GIF by Late Night with Seth Meyers

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2 hours ago, bluephantom87 said:

Now that the dust has settled on the 2021 draft do you think the Colts have closed the gap in the AFC among the title contenders? I ask this question because Ballard chooses to build mostly through the draft so his margin for error is slim and his success rate for those picks need to be higher at this point (year 5) to leapfrog some of the elite in the AFC to reach a SB.

 

By most accounts for the upcoming 2021 season through FA and the draft teams like the Chiefs, Bills, Steelers, Ravens and Titans have been aggressive and have gotten even better on paper by adding some playmakers at the SKILL positions and by addressing set needs. While young ultra talented teams like the Browns and Dolphins are closing fast.

 

I personally did not like the Colts draft this year and many sites thought they did a lot of reaching, had some head scratchers and didn't address their biggest need at LT in a very deep and talented field. Is Ballard starting to show that he's "overrated" with the hype or is he simply a guy who can put together a SOLID team at best and give good sound bites? I'm starting to feel the latter.

 

Seems like Ballard is using the Polian blueprint (build through the draft with limited FA use) which led Polian all the way to Canton. Over the years Polian drafted either special or HOF players at the SKILL position spots. With those type of players on a solid or above average team it usually gets you to the big dance or close to it. Polian did it with Buffalo, got an expansion team (Carolina) one game away from a SB, won 2 Grey Cups with 2 different teams in the Canadian league and built the one of the winningest teams of the decade in Indy.

 

As his tenure in Indy ended Polian's last few drafts started becoming what many would classify as reaches (injured players/low talent) and his I know more than you attitude started hurting the team. All came full circle once Peyton got hurt and you saw on FULL display how far the talent level had dropped. Ballard has had NONE of Bill's prior success as a gm because this is his first run yet I feel he's already drinking his own Kool-aid. Yes he has put together a "solid" team but the Colts are not elite and the gap is widening in the AFC. I guess in another 6 yrs we'll be ready at this pace BUT the rest of the NFL will not sit pat and wait.

I don't think the colts are falling behind.  You reference Polian and like Polian drafts, everyone hated them until the players played.  

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You have a new QB who was one of the worst QBs in the league last year and a hole at LT.  You have a rookie and Rochell replacing Houston and and Autry.  Honestly, you have no idea what you have until you see it on the field.  Like Ballard says, it's year-to-year.  Could the Colts fall off from last year?  Of course they could.

 

The whole "We still have four good offensive linemen" is another thing that sounds good, but how many teams make it through a season healthy on the OL?  An injury or two and suddenly you have two or three good O-linemen.  Regardless, as it stands, your O-line is worse.  Hopefully Fisher can help.  We'll see.

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1 hour ago, Superman said:

Falling behind what/who? 

 

I feel like all anyone cares about is whether the team drafted players at positions of perceived need. 

 

The LT situation is way overblown. The Colts could start the worst LT in the league and still have a top ten OL. We picked up guys off the street late in the season last year, and still had good line play. They have a great stable of backs, TEs who can block, a QB who can move, and a coaching staff that promotes a line-friendly passing attack. I'd rather have a rock solid LT, but the freak-out over LT has become outrageous. And that's without acknowledging that just plugging a name at that position doesn't mean we have a rock solid LT. 

 

 

It's cool to not love this draft. I don't know that I like it at this point. But acting like the team is falling apart is getting old.

 

 

Don't put words in my mouth!!! I NEVER said the team is FALLING APART! As a matter of fact I said the team was solid. The question I had was post draft since the Colts were a minor player in FA and placed more stock in the draft. Did they do enough to overtake some of the top teams in the AFC or are they falling further behind them.

 

Now what I'm tired of is some of the blind followers of Ballard who act like he can do no wrong and that some of his moves are BEYOND question. He's solid like the team he's built but he hasn't earned the free pass yet. 

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3 minutes ago, bluephantom87 said:

 

Don't put words in my mouth!!! I NEVER said the team is FALLING APART! As a matter of fact I said the team was solid. The question I had was post draft since the Colts were a minor player in FA and placed more stock in the draft. Did they do enough to overtake some of the top teams in the AFC or are they falling further behind them.

 

Now what I'm tired of is some of the blind followers of Ballard who act like he can do no wrong and that some of his moves are BEYOND question. He's solid like the team he's built but he hasn't earned the free pass yet. 

 

Let's stop talking past each other, then. Because I am NOT a blind follower of anyone. And I didn't say you said the team was falling apart, but that's the general tone of a 'are we falling behind' thread, and that's the general tone of your OP.

 

So what are you actually saying? What's the problem you're so concerned with on May 3? 

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17 minutes ago, #12. said:

The whole "We still have four good offensive linemen" is another thing that sounds good, but how many teams make it through a season healthy on the OL?  An injury or two and suddenly you have two or three good O-linemen.  Regardless, as it stands, your O-line is worse.  Hopefully Fisher can help.  We'll see.

 

Injury can happen to any team, at any position. Obviously an early evaluation of the OL is based on the idea that your projected starters are healthy. But if we're talking about depth, it's hard not to see that the team has more depth at OL this year than it did last year. The problem is that people don't like the depth players (probably because PFF says they aren't good). 

 

It's also ironic to say 'what about injuries?' and then point to Eric Fisher as the answer.

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To be quite honest, even if we had drafted differently we still wouldn't be past some of the premier talent like the Chiefs. At least not yet. Getting a LT would have been nice, sure. But would that position be the game changer to get us past them? Or even the Bills if we're being honest? 

 

It might be another year before we see how our additions pan out. But if we've got the edge rushers right this time, then we might all be pleasantly surprised. 

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6 minutes ago, DEFENSE said:

not talking about the draft of coarse they are unproven, talking about ballard not getting proven vet elite talent

 

You can't make free agents sign here. Ballard makes smart, cap friendly deals that will allow us to keep proven vet elite talent like Buckner, Leonard, and Nelson. 

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3 hours ago, bluephantom87 said:

Now that the dust has settled on the 2021 draft do you think the Colts have closed the gap in the AFC among the title contenders? I ask this question because Ballard chooses to build mostly through the draft so his margin for error is slim and his success rate for those picks need to be higher at this point (year 5) to leapfrog some of the elite in the AFC to reach a SB.

 

By most accounts for the upcoming 2021 season through FA and the draft teams like the Chiefs, Bills, Steelers, Ravens and Titans have been aggressive and have gotten even better on paper by adding some playmakers at the SKILL positions and by addressing set needs. While young ultra talented teams like the Browns and Dolphins are closing fast.

 

I personally did not like the Colts draft this year and many sites thought they did a lot of reaching, had some head scratchers and didn't address their biggest need at LT in a very deep and talented field. Is Ballard starting to show that he's "overrated" with the hype or is he simply a guy who can put together a SOLID team at best and give good sound bites? I'm starting to feel the latter.

 

Seems like Ballard is using the Polian blueprint (build through the draft with limited FA use) which led Polian all the way to Canton. Over the years Polian drafted either special or HOF players at the SKILL position spots. With those type of players on a solid or above average team it usually gets you to the big dance or close to it. Polian did it with Buffalo, got an expansion team (Carolina) one game away from a SB, won 2 Grey Cups with 2 different teams in the Canadian league and built the one of the winningest teams of the decade in Indy.

 

As his tenure in Indy ended Polian's last few drafts started becoming what many would classify as reaches (injured players/low talent) and his I know more than you attitude started hurting the team. All came full circle once Peyton got hurt and you saw on FULL display how far the talent level had dropped. Ballard has had NONE of Bill's prior success as a gm because this is his first run yet I feel he's already drinking his own Kool-aid. Yes he has put together a "solid" team but the Colts are not elite and the gap is widening in the AFC. I guess in another 6 yrs we'll be ready at this pace BUT the rest of the NFL will not sit pat and wait.


Well, I have my own share of concerns about the draft.  And, had I been in the draft room, I probably would’ve been very vocal about addressing LT (or at least TE) before doubling up on DE - with an injured guy, no less.

 

But here’s the thing about opinions — mine, yours, Mel Kiper’s, Colin Cowherd’s, Doyel’s, PFF’s....heck, even Chris Ballard’s and Bill Polian’s:  most of them are closer to garbage than gospel.

 

Don’t get me wrong:  not all opinions are created equal.  In terms of football, I learned that lesson the hard way in the 1999 draft.  I thought Polian had lost his mind.  But it didn’t take long for me to realize why he’s paid to manage a football team and most of us (myself included) merely pay to watch them.

 

So, everybody’s got an opinion about how we did in the draft.  Most of them aren’t even worth listening to.  And, now that it’s in the books, absolutely none of them will have any meaning as to how things pan out.

 

Mock drafts are fun, but no more than that.  Post-draft grades, same.  Only “redrafts”, done years later, bear any resemblance to reality - for obvious reasons.

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1 hour ago, #12. said:

You have a new QB who was one of the worst QBs in the league last year and a hole at LT.  You have a rookie and Rochell replacing Houston and and Autry.  Honestly, you have no idea what you have until you see it on the field.  Like Ballard says, it's year-to-year.  Could the Colts fall off from last year?  Of course they could.

 

The whole "We still have four good offensive linemen" is another thing that sounds good, but how many teams make it through a season healthy on the OL?  An injury or two and suddenly you have two or three good O-linemen.  Regardless, as it stands, your O-line is worse.  Hopefully Fisher can help.  We'll see.

Exactly. 

Right now, today LT is a weakness compared to years past.  Still a solid unit, but if a injury or even two and our previous strength will be a weakness.

 

With the lack of Off season/FA improvement we needed the draft to be our influx of talent to gain on Chiefs,Pat's, Bills etc... but the draft looks like it will not narrow the gap and since the end of the playoff loss the gap looks increased.

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1 hour ago, DEFENSE said:

not talking about the draft of coarse they are unproven, talking about ballard not getting proven vet elite talent

You realize that is hard to do because once teams have proven elite talent they don’t let it go very often and when they do it costs a kings ransom.  That’s why good teams grow their own like the Colts have done under Ballard.

 

Also Buckner says hi.

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I feel like the Colts entered this offseason with a chance to add a few pieces at DE and WR that would help them take the next step towards becoming a Super Bowl contender. There were several proven free agents available.  Just looking at edge for example,   Ngokoue could have been had at a reasonable price. But  Ballard opted to play the long game, sign some of his own and rely on the draft. While we appear to have drafted two good edge prospects in Kwity and Dayo, they will take time to develop and in the case of Dayo might not contribute immediately. While this may work out in the long run...it has less immediate impact than signing a couple of already proven edge players to bolster the pass rush.
 

We didn’t seriously pursue some of the big name wide receivers in free agency opting to bring back T.Y. and sticking mostly to the same receiving core as last year. Any improvement will have to come from the development and improvement of Pittman, Campbell, etc. or a  pleasant surprise from the 7th rounder Strachman. 

 

Thus, while the Colts may have improved themselves incrementally in some respects...they have not done so enough in my opinion to separate themselves from the throng of other good AFC teams for next season.  Are we any better than the Titans, Browns, Dolphins, or Bills?  No...Not definitively at least.  As a fringe playoff team last season...our margin for error is a slim one in the increasingly competitive AFC. 
 

Throw in the fact that we really don’t know what Wentz we will get in 2021 and it is hard to confidently say that the Colts should be expected to be Super Bowl contenders. We are in the mix for playoffs and the division. But the Super Bowl remains a goal that seems to be visualized as a future attainment by Ballard.  Rather than going all in to maximize a window of opportunity and become a clear cut favorite like Tampa Bay has done, he prefers striving for sustainable competitiveness to provide multiple opportunities to hopefully be in the mix for one.  

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Titans already had one of their picks arrested for serious domestic violence.  Was their 4th rounder.  He looks done.  Last year their first round OT selection is already out of the league leading them to have to chase another OT in the 2nd this year.

 

It’s fun to speculate and talk, but time will tell who improved or who bombed.   
 

on the record as have said elsewhere, I would’ve went Darrisaw for sure, but can’t hate too much on the Paye pick.  Castonzo was out in the playoffs, and Left Tackle protection had zero to do with why Colts lost. Three all pros on the OL.  I think the OL will be fine barring an injury curse, but if that occurs, unlikely a rookie LT cures that.

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2 hours ago, Coltsman1788 said:

 Rather than going all in to maximize a window of opportunity and become a clear cut favorite like Tampa Bay has done, he prefers striving for sustainable competitiveness to provide multiple opportunities to hopefully be in the mix for one.  

 

Tampa Bay is a great example of building through the draft, look at their recent draft history they have done very well aside from Brady most of their key contributors are drafted and developed.

 

Edit: Sorry I misread your post 

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29 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

 

Tampa Bay is a great example of building through the draft, look at their recent draft history they have done very well aside from Brady most of their key contributors are drafted and developed.

 

Edit: Sorry I misread your post 

And they continued to stock up on this past draft. It took them a while but that patience eventually paid off. I hope eventually we will see that same type of success in a few years.

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5 hours ago, Coltsman1788 said:

I feel like the Colts entered this offseason with a chance to add a few pieces at DE and WR that would help them take the next step towards becoming a Super Bowl contender. There were several proven free agents available.  Just looking at edge for example,   Ngokoue could have been had at a reasonable price. But  Ballard opted to play the long game, sign some of his own and rely on the draft. While we appear to have drafted two good edge prospects in Kwity and Dayo, they will take time to develop and in the case of Dayo might not contribute immediately. While this may work out in the long run...it has less immediate impact than signing a couple of already proven edge players to bolster the pass rush.
 

We didn’t seriously pursue some of the big name wide receivers in free agency opting to bring back T.Y. and sticking mostly to the same receiving core as last year. Any improvement will have to come from the development and improvement of Pittman, Campbell, etc. or a  pleasant surprise from the 7th rounder Strachman. 

 

Thus, while the Colts may have improved themselves incrementally in some respects...they have not done so enough in my opinion to separate themselves from the throng of other good AFC teams for next season.  Are we any better than the Titans, Browns, Dolphins, or Bills?  No...Not definitively at least.  As a fringe playoff team last season...our margin for error is a slim one in the increasingly competitive AFC. 
 

Throw in the fact that we really don’t know what Wentz we will get in 2021 and it is hard to confidently say that the Colts should be expected to be Super Bowl contenders. We are in the mix for playoffs and the division. But the Super Bowl remains a goal that seems to be visualized as a future attainment by Ballard.  Rather than going all in to maximize a window of opportunity and become a clear cut favorite like Tampa Bay has done, he prefers striving for sustainable competitiveness to provide multiple opportunities to hopefully be in the mix for one.  

 

Excellent post.

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