Doyel from indy star says we have spent the offseason getting worse

[NewColtsFan]

28 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

I can't read the article because of the paywall, so I am not sure what his arguments are, but below are mine.

 

Disclaimer: Even though I am not a Doyel fan, I am going to actually agree (to a degree) that his overall premise could be correct. Or better yet...that it was a lateral offseason with more likely risk than likely reward.

 

Going into this offseason, the Colts had gone 11-5 last season against the league's lowest SOS...including 1-5 against AFC playoff teams (after losing to BUF on WC weekend). 

 

During this offseason the Colts "lost" the following key players:

 

Phillip Rivers, QB1 (retired)

Anthony Costanzo, OT (retired)

Justin Houston, ER (FA)

Denico Autry, DE/DT (FA)

Trey Burton, TE/H-Back (FA)

Malik Hooker, S (FA)

Jacoby Brissett, QB2 (FA)

Anthony Walker, MLB (FA)

 

*Hilton is also likely on this list if not for Irsay stepping in. But he's still here for another year.

 

The major move they made was a trade for Carson Wentz. This has been rehashed over and over...but the fact remains that he is coming off a disastrous season. And while Rivers was a statue at his age, he still gave the Colts a top 10-15 performance at QB last year (albeit against by far the league's easiest SOS on offense).

 

Wentz could be better, but in his career, he has only surpassed that level of play once (2017). He did play with Reich that year...but that was four seasons ago and was one 12-game sample out of a 5-year career. So expecting anything more than a lateral performance at QB is probably too much. And given the season he just had, there is a chance they don't even get that. 

 

In FA prior to the draft, despite having top 5 cap space, the Colts did not replace/improve any of those other outgoing players. Instead, they tendered their current RFAs and invested in cheaper depth for the OL (OT and G) and DL (DE). That's not to say depth isn't important to have...it is. But it doesn't really help an 11-win team take a step forward...which is the premise here.

 

In the draft, they did replace many of those outgoing players. Drafting always has risk, but expecting these players to fill immediate needs on next year's team is especially a gamble. 

 

Ultimately, the offseason looks something like this:

 

Phillip Rivers, QB1 (retired)   Carson Wentz

Anthony Costanzo, OT (retired)   ???

Justin Houston, ER (FA)   Kwity Paye

Denico Autry, DE/DT (FA)   Dayo Odeyingbo 

Trey Burton, TE/H-Back (FA)   Kyler Granson 

Malik Hooker, S (FA)   Shawn/Sean Davis

Jacoby Brissett, QB2 (FA)   Jacob Eason or Sam Ehlinger

Anthony Walker, MLB (FA)   ???

 

Now there is definitely upside in these players for the future, and the Colts could definitely be a better team at some point in the future, but where can we definitely say this team improved for next season?

 

Especially when you consider...they added no immediate weapons for Wentz and the WR room that hasn't improved; there are still big question marks at LT (which could be taken care of shortly...or not); and question marks at LB depth and potentially even CB.

 

I know it's hard to impossible to address everything in one offseason, but I also don't think it's unfair to not be enamored with this offseason, given the expectations of this team.

 

I don’t object to anything you’re saying or anyone else is saying about not doing enough.   And too much lateral push, etc.

 

I think all the observations are mostly fair.

 

But to answer your specific question about where will we get better...   I’d say this...

 

The 2020 class should make the expected 2nd year leap.   So Pittman,  better.  Even Taylor, better.  Blackmon better.  All the Day 3 kids.

 

And the 2019 class should make a jump.  Rock, Ben, Paris and Okereke should get better.   Plus the Day 3 kids.

 

Even the 2018 class should improve in spots. Specifically,  Turay and Lewis. 
 

I believe the Colts are close to being the youngest team in the entire NFL.  The young kids SHOULD improve.  Ballard and Reich are banking on that.  The youth improving is THE key (along with Wentz) to another good season.  
 

Just wanted to address your question. 

[Myles]

I think the RB position is much better going into this season.

I think the WR position is much better going into this season.  

I think the QB position is a push.  

I think the D-line is a push.

I think TE is a push.

I think the O-line is worse at the moment.

 

[Nickster]

5 hours ago, stitches said:

The reality is... To a huge degree it will depend on Wentz. I think some of the most important positions got worse -LT, both EDGE positions possibly(at least for year 1). We got better at CB, TE. Overall I would say we are probably at about the same level,  with Wentz swinging it either way depending on how he pans out.

 

I'm not sure how we got better at TE.  Burton was a great blocker and I am not assuming this late round rookie will be better.

[Myles]

11 minutes ago, Nickster said:

I'm not sure how we got better at TE.  Burton was a great blocker and I am not assuming this late round rookie will be better.

Yeah, I'm not impressed with Granson.    I think TE position may be a push.  While Granson lacks the blocking skills of Burton he may make up for it some with his fresh legs.   I also think Mo will be incorporated into the offense more.  

[CoachLite]

I love it how fans like to prognosticate a team's future performance based on very limited information - and they are often very, very wrong. OK, maybe love is the wrong word. Unexplainable would be better.

[NewColtsFan]

55 minutes ago, Nickster said:

I'm not sure how we got better at TE.  Burton was a great blocker and I am not assuming this late round rookie will be better.

The TE is a 4th round player. 
 

The late round kid isn’t a TE.   He’s a WR, drafted to be a WR in the NFL. 
 

[Nickster]

2 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

The TE is a 4th round player. 
 

The late round kid isn’t a TE.   He’s a WR, drafted to be a WR in the NFL. 
 

OK 4th rounder.  It would be pretty shocking if he had better value than Burton this year.  The draftee is a poor blocker and TB was top tier.  So the rookie would have to put up eye popping catch stats to be better than Burton.  Not likely.  I'd buy you a Schlitz if it were the case.

[shasta519]

2 hours ago, ar7 said:

 

Yeah none of the local media guys seem to recognize that the team can and likely will get better from the improvement in the young players...guys like Pittman, Taylor, Blackmon, Willis, and Okereke. 

 

The depth at LT is certainly better. While losing AC sucked we also don't need to have an All-Pro level guy at every spot on the OL. With the other guys on that line they need the 5th guy to not be a liability. That might be Tevi or Holden at LT or it could involve moving Nelson or Smith to LT. They can still sign a veteran and I think that is their plan but even if they don't I don't think the LT spot will be an issue.

 

Wentz has the potential to make this offense more explosive as well. I didn't look at that trade and think it was a no brainer decision by any means. What I'll say about Wentz is only Ballard/Reich had the info to know whether that was a good bet to make. If they feel good about trading for Wentz then I am optimistic that it will work out. Time will tell though.

 

IMO...definitely not a no-brainer. The interesting part is the lack of activity on improving that side of the ball. Really the most underrated aspect of this offseason if you ask me. 

 

Because in a season where THIRTEEN QBs had a 70+ QBR...Wentz was at 49.7. 

 

Sure we can ignore that because of the issues in PHI...but the prior two seasons (2018-19), he averaged a 61.4 QBR. That would have been #21 in the pass-crazy NFL last season...just ahead of Mitch Trubisky and Daniel Jones.

 

Interestingly, one spot right ahead of that was Rivers (because he's a statue and doesn't run). But Rivers was also a pretty damn good passer last year...so he was still #12 in DVOA.

 

So basically, Rivers was a top 10-15 QB in a season where QBs were going crazy....while Wentz was a top 13-20 QB in DVOA in '18 and '19. So there's already a bit of a gap.

 

And Rivers' performance led to the Colts having the #12 offense overall (#16 passing offense) in DVOA (which adjusts for opponent). The last team to participate in (not win) a SB that was ranked outside #7 in offense DVOA was that 2015 DEN led by a ridiculous elite defense. That's also the last team to have a passing offense rated below #8.

 

Needless to say...they have to make a jump on offense somehow. But it's hard to imagine that Wentz alone makes that jump for them (especially since he might not even perform at the same level as Rivers). So if they thought they were improving QB, I really don't get why they wouldn't improve their weapons. 

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I have to say the Indy media on radio today has been nothing but a whine fest. 

[Catloaf]

I say this year so far we are looking slightly worse overall, primarily because of the talent lost.  If we sign Fisher or Villanueva as LT I believe overall we will be better.  A lot of it hinges now on QB play, LT play, and if our rookie D line can make an impact in a position that historically takes a couple years to develop unless you’re a stud like Buckner or Watt.

[shasta519]

31 minutes ago, Nickster said:

OK 4th rounder.  It would be pretty shocking if he had better value than Burton this year.  The draftee is a poor blocker and TB was top tier.  So the rookie would have to put up eye popping catch stats to be better than Burton.  Not likely.  I'd buy you a Schlitz if it were the case.

 

I agree...and Burton wasn't even any good last year. But he could block and he knew the system.

 

TEs typically don't make huge impacts as rookies. And that's especially true for a move TE or HBack like Granson...when he can't really block. I don't mind the pick...but pretty good chance this guy ends up in a gadget role.

 

The only TEs that make somewhat of an immediate impact are going to be generational prospects like Pitts that are a matchup nightmare from day one (obviously)...or true 3-down TEs that they can trust to plug and play right away (mostly because they can block). That was Friermuth in this draft...and they could have picked him. But even then, those guys will have a developmental curve as well...where they peak in years 2 and 3.

 

Because of all of this, I still imagine Ertz will be a Colt very soon.

 

 

 

 

[shasta519]

9 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

I have to say the Indy media on radio today has been nothing but a whine fest. 

 

That's the radio though. Haven't had a chance to listen to the podcasts yet...be interested to see if what they say about the draft.

[Nickster]

2 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

I agree...and Burton wasn't even any good last year. But he could block and he knew the system.

 

TEs typically don't make huge impacts as rookies. And that's especially true for a move TE or HBack like Granson...when he can't really block. I don't mind the pick...but pretty good chance this guy ends up in a gadget role.

 

The only TEs that make somewhat of an immediate impact are going to be generational prospects like Pitts that are a matchup nightmare from day one (obviously)...or true 3-down TEs that they can trust to plug and play right away (mostly because they can block). That was Friermuth in this draft...and they could have picked him. But even then, those guys will have a developmental curve as well...where they peak in years 2 and 3.

 

Because of all of this, I still imagine Ertz will be a Colt very soon.

 

 

 

 

We need some other playmakers.  No doubt.  

[Four2itus]

There is no salve for the self inflicted wounds fans incur from only recognizing additions and subtractions, and ignoring development. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

5 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

That's the radio though. Haven't had a chance to listen to the podcasts yet...be interested to see if what they say about the draft.

Funny thing is the guy you would expect to whine the most in Dakich has been the only one not whining.  How many times do people not listen to what Ballard says.

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, CoachLite said:

I love it how fans like to prognosticate a team's future performance based on very limited information - and they are often very, very wrong. OK, maybe love is the wrong word. Unexplainable would be better.

 

What is unexplainable? The information we have on the Colts (or other NFL teams) is always going to be limited...so of course people will be wrong. So should we just not prognosticate at all?

 

And what's considered very, very wrong? If someone said the Colt would go 13-3 with a trip to the AFCG last year...and someone else they would go 9-7 and just miss the playoffs...who is more wrong? 

 

I don't think anyone thinks this team is going to suddenly implode. People just want to see them be more than a WC team that goes one and done. And I can understand why some don't see how this offseason put them in that position.

 

 

 

 

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, Nickster said:

OK 4th rounder.  It would be pretty shocking if he had better value than Burton this year.  The draftee is a poor blocker and TB was top tier.  So the rookie would have to put up eye popping catch stats to be better than Burton.  Not likely.  I'd buy you a Schlitz if it were the case.

 

I don't know what to make of the new TE?    He put up very very impressive stats for a team that doesn't play the toughest schedule.

 

He wasn't my favorite TE candidate.    Mine went about 15 picks later.   But I don't get to make the call.   CB and Frank do and it sounds like this was a guy Frank wanted.     I may like my own opinion,  but I never substitute my opinion for CB and FR.   I just hope they're right.

[Nickster]

7 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I don't know what to make of the new TE?    He put up very very impressive stats for a team that doesn't play the toughest schedule.

 

He wasn't my favorite TE candidate.    Mine went about 15 picks later.   But I don't get to make the call.   CB and Frank do and it sounds like this was a guy Frank wanted.     I may like my own opinion,  but I never substitute my opinion for CB and FR.   I just hope they're right.

Yeah, I don't know much at all about college personnel, so I don't react too much to things, but I don't think this guy is being drafted to make the team immediately "better" as in he's going to walk in and be a better player than Burton.

 

All this supports a thread I put up and I think this is a make or break year for CB.  If Wentz isn't good and Paye and Dayo bust, I don't see a path to survival with all the contracts coming due and still no LT solution unless they really are planning to slide Q.

 

I am cautiuosly optimistic about Wentz, and I hope these Dends are studs but I am not overyly confident about any of it.  

[GoColts8818]

Greg Doyle gets paid to write overreaction attention seeking things so he’s just doing his job.  With that said I learned long ago not to depend on a columnist to form my opinion.  

[LJpalmbeacher2]

Just heard on JMV from Holder, I think... when asked if the colts are better or worse since the end of season he said "ask me in December ".

FWIW.   

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

22 minutes ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

Just heard on JMV from Holder, I think... when asked if the colts are better or worse since the end of season he said "ask me in December ".

FWIW.   

I can’t stand holders political tweets but I enjoy when he is on JMV. JMV is always whining about something and holder is always calm and explains why he shouldn’t be whining.

 

Nobody  ever knows how a draft has panned out for a couple years.

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, Four2itus said:

There is no salve for the self inflicted wounds fans incur from only recognizing additions and subtractions, and ignoring development. 

I don’t think anybody is ignoring it. But how do we quantify it? Player development is not necessarily linear (and definitely not even guaranteed). 
 

We can at least somewhat quantify an outgoing player’s production vs. an incoming player’s projection. And at the most basic level, compare an old roster to a new roster. This is all on paper...but that’s all we have at this point. 
 

In regards to player development, the same could be said about player regression too. Even players that do well aren’t guaranteed to stay at that level. And it doesn’t only happen to older players. It’s a pretty big reason the Colts have Wentz. 
 

 

 

 

[shasta519]

32 minutes ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

Just heard on JMV from Holder, I think... when asked if the colts are better or worse since the end of season he said "ask me in December ".

FWIW.   

That came from Holder? 
 

“Let’s see what happens” is about as close to a criticism you will get from him.

[shasta519]

2 hours ago, Wentzszn said:

Funny thing is the guy you would expect to whine the most in Dakich has been the only one not whining.  How many times do people not listen to what Ballard says.

I don’t listen to Dakich because I don’t like how he handles callers. But if I had to guess...since others are whining...it’s not cool to do so now.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

JMV is whining about the WR. I am like who you cutting if you draft another WR early. I like our Offense. With Wentz they should be even better.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

4 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

I don’t listen to Dakich because I don’t like how he handles callers. But if I had to guess...since others are whining...it’s not cool to do so now.

I normally don’t listen. I just wanted to get his take. He seemed to like what they did.

[Coltsman1788]

A little bit of heat is good for Ballard. He hasn’t gotten much yet. I’m sure he can handle it. When you preach building through the draft as much as he does yet are unable to fill what was perhaps the team’s biggest need then it can be expected. And yes...I know it just didn’t fall our way but that is the risk you take if you go draft heavy in your offseason approach. Nevertheless, I expect Ballard to adjust and find another solution to the problem. It is what he is good at. 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

39 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

That came from Holder? 
 

“Let’s see what happens” is about as close to a criticism you will get from him.

 

51 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

I can’t stand holders political tweets but I enjoy when he is on JMV. JMV is always whining about something and holder is always calm and explains why he shouldn’t be whining.

 

Nobody  ever knows how a draft has panned out for a couple years.

 

Sorry guys if I didn't make post more clear. The quote "ask me in December" came from Ballard not Holder. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

If we can get one of these vets that might actually be better in the short term then going through the rookie learning curve.

[NannyMcafee]

The Colts fan base has had Lombardi fever ever since 2006. I hate the idea of having to wait for talent to develop but we don't really have a choice. So why freak out? 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

3 minutes ago, NannyMcafee said:

The Colts fan base has had Lombardi fever ever since 2006. I hate the idea of having to wait for talent to develop but we don't really have a choice. So why freak out? 

We are still one of the youngest teams in the league. It’s not like our stars are pushing 30.

[JoeThornburg]

12 hours ago, Stephen said:

Don't  agree

My thoughts as well.

[Dingus McGirt]

1 hour ago, Coltsman1788 said:

A little bit of heat is good for Ballard. He hasn’t gotten much yet. I’m sure he can handle it. When you preach building through the draft as much as he does yet are unable to fill what was perhaps the team’s biggest need then it can be expected. And yes...I know it just didn’t fall our way but that is the risk you take if you go draft heavy in your offseason approach. Nevertheless, I expect Ballard to adjust and find another solution to the problem. It is what he is good at. 

How do you really know “it” didn’t fall the Colts way?  Maybe it went just as the Gm and HC wanted.  

[icf]

It's funny how some people are questioning how Doyle knows they've gotten worse without even playing a game...yet others here keep pointing out that they are better for some reason or another.  If one side of that equation is true then both are....nobody knows.

 

All anyone has is an opinion at this point.  Come December we can look back and the Colts will be better, the same, or worse then in 2020.

 

That said, if they start the season in 4 months with the same group at LT -- they're in trouble.

 

 

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

1 hour ago, Wentzszn said:

JMV is whining about the WR. I am like who you cutting if you draft another WR early. I like our Offense. With Wentz they should be even better.

 

You let the ghost continue to be a ghost on someone else's team. You're saying you wouldn't rather have a guy like Rondale Moore over Zach Pascal? Or Rashod Bateman or Terrace Marshall if you want a prototype WR. 

 

I don't understand how everyone thinks WR is anything but a weakness? They were marginal at best last year, this team was literally carried by Jonathan Taylor down the stretch. TY didn't show up til November, and is showing definite signs of aging, Parris Campbell can't stay upright, so you basically have Pittman as your only real mid-to-high end threat. We have no Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce, no Stefon Diggs, no Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. That's the theme for the teams that are legit SB contenders, they have elite playmakers. Bottomline is offense is gonna win you a SB, if you don't hit certain thresholds you just aren't getting there, and we aren't even sniffing those thresholds. 

 

Wentz struggled because he had no weapons, and now we aren't gonna make an effort to get him a top notch playmaker? Do they wanna kill this kid's career? If Parris Campbell does Parris Campbell things, and TY inevitably continues his decline, what are we really left with? Better give Jonathan Taylor 600 touches cuz that's the only chance we have at this stage of the game. 

[#12.]

1 hour ago, Coltsman1788 said:

A little bit of heat is good for Ballard. He hasn’t gotten much yet. I’m sure he can handle it. When you preach building through the draft as much as he does yet are unable to fill what was perhaps the team’s biggest need then it can be expected. 

 

Exactly.  How do you preach building trenches for five years and leave a gaping hole at LT?  Expect the criticism.

[Coltsman1788]

18 minutes ago, Dingus McGirt said:

How do you really know “it” didn’t fall the Colts way?  Maybe it went just as the Gm and HC wanted.  

I doubt their plan A was to wait till the 7th round to take an OT. When responding to a question in the presser about not taking an OT in the second round, Ballard said that several went off the board before their pick.  Cosmi went the pick right before. The draft broke favorably for us in the first round...not so much in the second but the Colts still believe they got a really good player in Dayo.  

[TaylorStillTruckedYou]

4 hours ago, Catloaf said:

I say this year so far we are looking slightly worse overall, primarily because of the talent lost.  If we sign Fisher or Villanueva as LT I believe overall we will be better.  A lot of it hinges now on QB play, LT play, and if our rookie D line can make an impact in a position that historically takes a couple years to develop unless you’re a stud like Buckner or Watt.

Sorry to have to use your post as an example, I just keep seeing similar things.  I see your insight though, but I just don't get why a bunch of people are acting like losing a single position, in this case LT is causing us to take this massive step back.  Castonzo was amazing in his time here, but we literally had someone come out of retirement and played decently well.  The panic that everyone is doing is a slightly a bit uncalled for.  (I don't consider your comment a panic btw lol just been seeing similar responses)

By the way, we did not lose our playoff game based on our LT.  We lost, because we could not get the other team off the field because we couldn't get to the QB.  Just saying

[Zoltan]

5 hours ago, Nickster said:

OK 4th rounder.  It would be pretty shocking if he had better value than Burton this year.  The draftee is a poor blocker and TB was top tier.  So the rookie would have to put up eye popping catch stats to be better than Burton.  Not likely.  I'd buy you a Schlitz if it were the case.

Sorry but Burton is not top tier, even at blocking if he was someone would have signed him for at least the veterans minimum. 

[Zoltan]

12 minutes ago, AddaiStillTruckedYou said:

Sorry to have to use your post as an example, I just keep seeing similar things.  I see your insight though, but I just don't get why a bunch of people are acting like losing a single position, in this case LT is causing us to take this massive step back.  Castonzo was amazing in his time here, but we literally had someone come out of retirement and played decently well.  The panic that everyone is doing is a slightly a bit uncalled for.  (I don't consider your comment a panic btw lol just been seeing similar responses)

By the way, we did not lose our playoff game based on our LT.  We lost, because we could not get the other team off the field because we couldn't get to the QB.  Just saying

 

I think it's that some fans see our former players with rose colored glasses, because of it no one except a flashy name can possible be better