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Left Tackle(Leno,Fisher,Okung?)/Sam Tevi at LT (MERGE)


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46 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Did you compare that to this more recent study, conducted with 80 NFL players identified as having Achilles tendon tears between the 2009 and 2014 seasons?

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6415485/

 

Interested in your thoughts there as well...

 

Haven't started the paper yet but the purpose sounded really interesting thanks for the share. Gonna read it after dinner

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21 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

 By a coach or team front office guy? 


And just before said #1 overall pick and 8 year vet was cut from their team?

 

" It was on the internet... it has to be true. "

Most likely false information spread by Fishers agent who has the most to gain by having a gullible team sign Fisher to a big contract and expecting him to come back in 7 months.

 

So Fishers agent spreads the false information through his channels. Next thing you know Dan durkin tweets it as "official information".

 

So yes now its on the internet so it must be true.

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23 minutes ago, PRnum1 said:

Most likely false information spread by Fishers agent who has the most to gain by having a gullible team sign Fisher to a big contract and expecting him to come back in 7 months.

 

So Fishers agent spreads the false information through his channels. Next thing you know Dan durkin tweets it as "official information".

 

So yes now its on the internet so it must be true.

Actually no. The chiefs said the same thing in March before he was cut. It came directly from the GM and coach.

 

I don’t know why everyone is arguing about this. Ballard isn’t going to sign him if he isn’t going to play this year.

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1 hour ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Did you compare that to this more recent study, conducted with 80 NFL players identified as having Achilles tendon tears between the 2009 and 2014 seasons?

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6415485/

 

Interested in your thoughts there as well...

 

 

Interesting read, while they didn't find too much statistical significance in their experiment and some of their wording seemed weird. Here's some parts that either surprised me or thought was worth sharing

 

Quote

Players who returned had significantly higher mean BMIs than those who did not (32.54 vs 30.14; P 1⁄4 .012). However, this difference was due to the positional composition of the groups—that is, the group that returned had a greater proportion of unskilled position players (ie, linemen, who tend to have higher BMIs)

Quote

The percentages of unskilled, skilled, and special teams players who were able to RTP were 75.0%, 52.8%, and 100%

 

The fact they found that players with higher BMI/unskilled positions (OL, DL) had a better chance to return to play over skilled positions, surprised me a bit because I figured it would be harder for players that are heavier to return.

 

Quote

"McCullough et al examined only athletes treated by the senior author using a mini-open repair technique; thus, their relatively higher reported RTP rate of 78% may have been affected by selection bias and cofounding factors."

 

"a study of NFL players who underwent mini-open repairs, McCullough et al23 found that the mean time to RTP was 8.9 months. The current study reports the longest recovery time for this population: 11.90 months"

 

This was at the end of the article and now I'll have to find this other study to see why players that underwent mini-open repairs with the senior author had such a shorter return to play time haha

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@ColtsBlueFL

 

Thought you might be interested in this article it was written by a surgeon on a series of case studies of 9 patients, the level of evidence is lower than the previous studies but it gives a more in-depth look because the surgeon was able to get approval to share more information

 

image.png.846b03f6e7a7429882316b8c812f3fea.png

 

https://www.orthosportskansascity.com/mini-open-repair-of-achilles-rupture-in-the-national-football-league/ 

 

Edit: Picture is very blurry so its figure 1 in the link

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9 hours ago, Myles said:

Yeah, seems like a tough choice.    I think, if I had to pick between the 2, I'd go with Leno.  

Fisher is better at full strength, but Leno is very good as well.  They've both made 1 pro bowl in their careers.   The are almost the same age - Leno 29, Fisher 30.  Leno has been more dependable over the years.  Leno has played in over 99% of the snaps the past 5 years.  Fisher missed 8 games in 2019 (core muscle injury) and then the tear last season.    I'd like to sign Leno to a 3-4 year deal.

Have you seen Leno play much? I have seen him a lot and he’s not all that great. The Bears don’t think so either since they let him walk and drafted his replacement and put all their eggs on the rookie.

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10 minutes ago, Blueblood23 said:

Have you seen Leno play much? I have seen him a lot and he’s not all that great. The Bears don’t think so either since they let him walk and drafted his replacement and put all their eggs on the rookie.

Nobody is saying Leno is great but he is average to above average and healthy. He would be an upgrade at LT compared to we have now that is for sure. Can't be picky. 

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7 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Nobody is saying Leno is great but he is average to above average and healthy. He would be an upgrade at LT compared to we have now that is for sure. Can't be picky. 

How long did we keep Le'Raven Clark on the team? Would Leno AND Fisher be a smart move?

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8 hours ago, Blueblood23 said:

Have you seen Leno play much? I have seen him a lot and he’s not all that great. The Bears don’t think so either since they let him walk and drafted his replacement and put all their eggs on the rookie.

 

Had Leno been available at the start of free agency, few would have been interested, but circumstances have obviously changed.  Tevi's film is not good.  He's below average.  He's not a starting NFL LT.  Over the course of a 17 game season, the difference between Tevi and an average-to-above average starting NFL LT in Leno would be quite noticeable.

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8 hours ago, Blueblood23 said:

Have you seen Leno play much? I have seen him a lot and he’s not all that great. The Bears don’t think so either since they let him walk and drafted his replacement and put all their eggs on the rookie.

They cut him because they are way over the cap

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Lets look at Leno a bit more

 

Villinueva had a PFF Ranking at 74.6

Anthony Cantstandya had a PFF Ranking of 73.4

Leno had a PFF Ranking of 74.6

 

Leno isnt an ALL PRO..... I get it..... but he isnt far off of other LTs that we were clamoring for

 

Leno also..... started EVERY GAME for 5 years.......  Thats big

 

Leno is better than Tevi..... if I am Wentz and there is choice between these two, I am standing on the table shouting "LENO!"

 

As mentioned, Leno would get a "boost" to play better because the line stunts Q is going to hold his own

 

The Colts need to get thru this coming year at LT.

Leno isnt the long term answer (I dont think) But he is good enough to play LT on this line, for this year.

 

If we play a team with a dominant RDE, you chip the guy, or have a large number of plays where the the TE blocks. 

 

A good running attack also helps slow down the pass rush

 

 

I started out wanting Fisher, and they may work something out for the long run, but Leno seems to be someone that we can plug in and go

With all the research pointing to a 11-12 months on a full recovery, for Fisher, I think the Colts may let him pass

How do you pay the guy for this year, if he isnt playing?

 

Tough calls..... I hope W.T.H. will not sign Leno.

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41 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

They cut him because they are way over the cap

That may be, but why cut one of the most prized positions on a team when he wasn’t all that expensive? It would make sense to cut Nick Foles to save bucks if Leno was as good as some think.

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9 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Nobody is saying Leno is great but he is average to above average and healthy. He would be an upgrade at LT compared to we have now that is for sure. Can't be picky. 

If Leno is an upgrade then I question why the team signed all these other guys that really can’t play. They aren’t any better than Clark. Should have drafted one rather than signing up quantity over quality.

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58 minutes ago, Blueblood23 said:

That may be, but why cut one of the most prized positions on a team when he wasn’t all that expensive? It would make sense to cut Nick Foles to save bucks if Leno was as good as some think.

You do have a point. Because they signed Dalton I don’t know how much Foles is making though.

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16 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

You do have a point. Because they signed Dalton I don’t know how much Foles is making though.

He makes $6.7m and has a dead cap hit of over $14m.

 

So no they don't really have a point and their post is more uninformed than the other one they had and that one was pretty bad.

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On 5/7/2021 at 2:36 AM, JoeThornburg said:

Right man. I get that. How many of these teams though are gonna pitch him RT money? Villanueva just got RT money and is all butthurt about it now. Not that I don't blame him but he's talking smack about the wrong people.

LT, RT money it's all getting more blurred IMO. It just comes down to best terms overall. We'll be paying Smith top 5 RT money shortly, but it'll be likely Top 10 LT as well. And a guy who can play both sides blurs things more. 

 

Anyone who test the market, and signs a contract, doesn't really have a reason to be butthurt lol. 100% their choice. This year, not as much $ available so it impacts what teams can do and what players get. 

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22 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Oh yes, knee reconstruction is so very much more complex (and has so many different types of injuries) than an Achilles tendon repair. Orthopaedic surgeons are always trying to improve procedures and outcomes in the knees, and they are still chasing the holy grail of finding ways to develop a reliable and cost-effective means of regenerating the knees articular cartilage.

 

 

Let's go the other way- I know two that don't. Running backs, and Linebackers. Especially Linebackers, as I show below.  Others are probably comparable to each other in both returning rate and performance level attained.

 

 

I'm not counting on an August return, and if he does, it will likely be with a notable reduction in performance.

 

**In a new fairly recent study (Oct. 2017), they found almost 73% of players returned to the NFL after Achilles tendon repair (recently published study in Foot and Ankle International).**

 

“Achilles tendon injuries in the NFL are common season-ending injuries that require a surgical repair,” Joshua D. Harris, MD, told Healio.com/Orthopedics. “Our recent study of 95 NFL players showed that it was also a career-ending injury in nearly 28% of those analyzed. Although postoperative performance was worse in running backs and (especially) linebackers vs. pre-injury. Results showed that at a mean of 339.8 days after surgery, 71 NFL players were able to return to sport, 24 did not."

 

The reports of an August return was Kansas City GM Brett Veach painting a rosy picture-

 

"K.C. Chiefs general manager Brett Veach says left tackle Eric Fisher is expected back by mid-August."

 

In this article-

 

https://arrowheadaddict.com/2021/03/01/kc-chiefs-news-eric-fisher-injury-update-achilles-mid-august-return/

 

It also said in the article-

 

 

Here is the Veach proclamation,

 

I think with that injury with the time leading up for the season, Rick has here a mid-August return. You know how that works, that’s always to be determined until the player actually reports back to camp and goes through the offseason to see where he is.”

 

10 days later, he releases both Eric Fisher and Mitch Schwartz. So does he have confidence in that August date now?

 

The latest study data above shows an average 340 days for (well, for 73% of them) a player to return to play.  Fisher was hurt Jan 29, 2021. A mid August return would place Fisher’s recovery timeline at approximately 225 days, or seven and a half months. 115 days ahead of the mean return time frame.

 

You believe what you want, but I know which side of the timeline scale I'm looking at.

 

 

 

good stuff CBFL

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3 hours ago, CoachLite said:

How long did we keep Le'Raven Clark on the team? Would Leno AND Fisher be a smart move?

To answer your question, yes. I hope we sign 1 of the 2. It is a position that needs upgrading, have to protect Wentz the best we can.

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16 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Best data I've come across thus far-

 

GKjUe0Y.jpg

 

For OL, the mean in this case is 342 days, plus or minus 98 days.  8 out of 13 (61.5%) returned to play, 5 ( 38.5% ) did not make it back.

 

 

Thanks CBFL. Great stuff.

What would also be very interesting, is to see the age breakout of those that returned, and those that didn't. And in general, the age breakout of recovery time periods. 

 

Not asking you to go digging, just a comment.

 

Overall, OL looks to be 2nd worst RTS%, which was thinking given the weight factor.

 

In general about our situation, like I said earlier this week, I just don't like the thought of signing Fisher unless it's very conditional around guarantees (and that's just part of the equation). It's just a tough situation all around. The FO has to considering 1) the pure need, and 2) the financial impact when thinking about his recovery time and chances of playing again. Given his age and the RTS %, this makes me like Fisher even less. It's likely great leverage for Leno. 

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2 hours ago, Blueblood23 said:

That may be, but why cut one of the most prized positions on a team when he wasn’t all that expensive? It would make sense to cut Nick Foles to save bucks if Leno was as good as some think.

Leno had a dead cap of 2.3 million. 

Foles is over 10 million

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45 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

To answer your question, yes. I hope we sign 1 of the 2. It is a position that needs upgrading, have to protect Wentz the best we can.

Fisher could be a smart move, we'd feel about Leno after a few weeks like we did about Samson Satele. He's bad. Ask a Bears fan. 

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1 hour ago, w87r said:

He makes $6.7m and has a dead cap hit of over $14m.

 

So no they don't really have a point and their post is more uninformed than the other one they had and that one was pretty bad.

Thanks. Yeah that wouldn’t make sense.

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14 hours ago, Wentzszn said:

I can’t even really say that Leno is a upgrade. I don’t know enough about Tevi. It does seem that fans are exaggerating a little with how bad Tevi is.  Fisher won’t have many suitors with that Achilles. It might even benefit him to wait longer so he can get more money.

 

IMO, Leno or a healthy Fisher would be as good or better than AC. Tevi is a several tiers below all of them. I know ratings aren't everything, but... they aren't that far off.

 

AC 73.4

Leno 74.6

Fisher 80.0

Tevi 52.9

 

I'd also consider the following

  • AC had Q beside him, and a quick trigger QB with great TtT (time to throw) and scheme that kept him looking better than he really was.  Rivers was near the best/lowest all year in that category. 
  • Fisher had an extremely mobile QB that kept that sack numbers down. 50+ pressures were tagged to Mahomes himself (rather than the OL). Also, KC had one of the lowest run %s (bottom 5), while Indy had a top 10%.
  • Chicago believe it or not, was near identical to KC in run/pass %. And Whitehair was one of the best LGs in the league after moving from OC to LG late. I'm sure Leno's ratings went up after the Whitehair shift. Before that move, Leno was the only decent guy on the left and teams were trying to kill them on that side from what I read.
  • Tevi was part of the worst OL in the league... 

Just in terms of overall OL ranks, here's how the teams (for those Ts) ranked.

 

Indy (AC) - 7th, which was a step back from 2019

Chiefs (Fisher) - 11th

Bears (Leno) - 20th

Chargers (Tevi) - 32nd

 

11 hours ago, Blueblood23 said:

Have you seen Leno play much? I have seen him a lot and he’s not all that great. The Bears don’t think so either since they let him walk and drafted his replacement and put all their eggs on the rookie.

Bears were negative cap. They specifically drafted LT so they could cut him and free up space. I'm not saying Leno is great, but he wasn't bad. He's above average and was anchoring a left side for two poor QBs, next to a poor LG (most of the year until Whitehair slid over), for a team that passed 6th most in the league.

 

1 hour ago, Blueblood23 said:

If Leno is an upgrade then I question why the team signed all these other guys that really can’t play. They aren’t any better than Clark. Should have drafted one rather than signing up quantity over quality.

We signed a bunch of extraneous guys every year. More this year because AC is gone, and we let some other bad depth players go. Tevi is an upgrade to Clark. There's no mystery why we signed a lot of guys. Most will be gone by the end of camp.

 

Clark I believe is still unsigned if that tells you anything. I know he visited the Bills last month, but don't think he's signed anywhere.

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2 hours ago, Blueblood23 said:

That may be, but why cut one of the most prized positions on a team when he wasn’t all that expensive? It would make sense to cut Nick Foles to save bucks if Leno was as good as some think.

From what I read the decision on who to cut came down to Leno or Jimmy Graham.  They decided to keep Graham for now.  They needed cap space. 

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36 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

From what I read the decision on who to cut came down to Leno or Jimmy Graham.  They decided to keep Graham for now.  They needed cap space. 

That says all one needs to know about Leno. Cut a left tackle and keep an aging non productive tight end.

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5 minutes ago, Blueblood23 said:

That says all one needs to know about Leno. Cut a left tackle and keep an aging non productive tight end.

They drafted his replacement in Jenkins.  The choice was easy after that.

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4 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

 

Lets look at Leno a bit more

 

Villinueva had a PFF Ranking at 74.6

Anthony Cantstandya had a PFF Ranking of 73.4

Leno had a PFF Ranking of 74.6

 

Leno isnt an ALL PRO..... I get it..... but he isnt far off of other LTs that we were clamoring for

 

Leno also..... started EVERY GAME for 5 years.......  Thats big

 

Leno is better than Tevi..... if I am Wentz and there is choice between these two, I am standing on the table shouting "LENO!"

 

As mentioned, Leno would get a "boost" to play better because the line stunts Q is going to hold his own

 

The Colts need to get thru this coming year at LT.

Leno isnt the long term answer (I dont think) But he is good enough to play LT on this line, for this year.

 

If we play a team with a dominant RDE, you chip the guy, or have a large number of plays where the the TE blocks. 

 

A good running attack also helps slow down the pass rush

 

 

I started out wanting Fisher, and they may work something out for the long run, but Leno seems to be someone that we can plug in and go

With all the research pointing to a 11-12 months on a full recovery, for Fisher, I think the Colts may let him pass

How do you pay the guy for this year, if he isnt playing?

 

Tough calls..... I hope W.T.H. will not sign Leno.

i watched  some of lenos film at pass blocking he seems just as good as AC was .  the problem i see is his run blocking is very bad and way worse than ACs . the colts being a run first team and having a bad run blocker scares me .

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16 minutes ago, Blueblood23 said:

That says all one needs to know about Leno. Cut a left tackle and keep an aging non productive tight end.

It's bang for the buck, or in this case, cut for the buck. 

It was simply better to cut Tevi when you can get a guy like Jenkins and have him on the cheap for 4-5 years.

 

Keep in mind the Bears drafted Kmet at TE in the 2nd round last year. He's their future, but Graham still had almost twice as many yards as him in 2020. Wouldn't be surprised if they waived/cut Graham during camp if they like one of their other TEs. Graham's leadership and experience though is nice to have around. 

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2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

Fisher had better surrounding OL as well, and a much better QB of evading pressure.

What some people fail to realize, playing by Nelson will make Leno even better. Leno didn't play with anyone near as great Nelson when he was in Chicago.

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1 hour ago, The Fish said:

Fisher could be a smart move, we'd feel about Leno after a few weeks like we did about Samson Satele. He's bad. Ask a Bears fan. 

Then again, perhaps we gave up on Denzelle Good too soon?

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1 hour ago, The Fish said:

Fisher could be a smart move, we'd feel about Leno after a few weeks like we did about Samson Satele. He's bad. Ask a Bears fan. 

I disagree, the Bears had a mediocre O.Line as a whole, Leno would flourish playing with Nelson and Kelly, JMO. That is like a QB who has been average his whole career then all of the sudden you give him Reggie Wayne, that QB would be good at that point. It's not like Leno can't play, he isn't bad, he is average at worse which is better at LT than who we have now.

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1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

What some people fail to realize, playing by Nelson will make Leno even better. Leno didn't play with anyone near as great Nelson when he was in Chicago.

Whitehair slid over from OC to LG late in the season IIRC, and Whitehair did well, and I think I read Leon's grades went up too. 

 

13 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

i watched  some of lenos film at pass blocking he seems just as good as AC was .  the problem i see is his run blocking is very bad and way worse than ACs . the colts being a run first team and having a bad run blocker scares me .

I'd love to see the breakdown of PFF run block and pass block grades for each, and also how Leno looked in both after the Whitehair move to LG. I'm going to bet Leno's grades went up in both regards.

 

AC was not great at run blocking. Our rush success rate over AC was 60% in 2019, and declined to 47% in 2020. Not horrible by any means, but a big decline. 

 

As far as efficiency running over LT in 2020, from Sharp... These are team stats over LT.. 

 

Leno - 50%

AC - 47%

Tevi - 43%

Fisher - 37%

 

 

A quick look at team Pass Block and Run Block win rates.... 

 

PBWR

6. Kansas City Chiefs, 63%

12. Indianapolis Colts, 60%

15. Chicago Bears, 58%

31. Los Angeles Chargers, 47%

 

RBWR

8. Indianapolis Colts, 72%

12. Chicago Bears, 71%

31. Kansas City Chiefs, 67%
32. Los Angeles Chargers, 67%

 

 

4 minutes ago, JediXMan said:

I’m not really a fan of PFF as others. It has it’s flaws and shouldn’t be all people compare players to.

 

PFF is only an indicator, but it's better typically than the ol uniformed eye test lol. I included Nextgen pass block and run block win rates above too, as well as Sharp's rushing success rate or efficiency.

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2 hours ago, The Fish said:

Fisher could be a smart move, we'd feel about Leno after a few weeks like we did about Samson Satele. He's bad. Ask a Bears fan. 

Comparing anyone who has been at least ok like Leno has been for the last 6 years, to a complete disaster like Satele is extremely harsh. 

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4 minutes ago, Les Poulains said:

Comparing anyone who has been at least ok like Leno has been for the last 6 years, to a complete disaster like Satele is extremely harsh. 

Comparing Satele to a baked potato would be extremely harsh. 

 

Potatoes do not deserve that kind of abuse.

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40 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

Fisher had better surrounding OL as well, and a much better QB of evading pressure.

 

  It made our o-line look much better in pass blocking that Rivers got rid of the _____ ball. See Smith.

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41 minutes ago, CoachLite said:

Then again, perhaps we gave up on Denzelle Good too soon?

We definitely did.  He asked to be traded for his own reasons.  We accommodated and he 's having a solid career with the Raiders.  

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4 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

  It made our o-line look much better in pass blocking that Rivers got rid of the _____ ball. See Smith.

Yup. Rivers had great time to throw. His anticipation and quick reads pre-snap have always been great.

 

Wentz went from 2.71 (decent) in 2019, to 2.91 (poor) in 2020. For reference, he was 2.72 in 2017.

 

I'm good with 2.7 or below. When you get around 2.8 or higher, it makes it really hard on your OL.

 

JB was 2.93 in 2019 FWIW.

 

IMO, Reich will keep it conservative with a lot of short to intermediate stuff like he did with Rivers, and Wentz's time to throw will be mid 2.6s to mid 2.7s. 

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