Left Tackle(Leno,Fisher,Okung?)/Sam Tevi at LT (MERGE)

[Shive]

18 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

But if fisher is healthy by august like the reports say I’ll take him . In the playoffs a elite tackle vs a slightly above average guy will show up .

The dilemma is do we bank on Fisher recovering quick enough to not miss any/a significant amount of time and hope he's still able to play at a high level when he gets back? Or do we go with Leno that almost certainly guarantees an average to above average level of performance that, unless something happens between now and the start of TC, will be healthy to start the season?

 

High risk/High reward with Fisher.

Low risk/Medium reward with Leno.

 

Fisher playing at his prior high level is the absolute best case scenario with us, although not exactly likely with the injury he's recovering from. Even if physically recovered, the mental aspect typically adds an element of hesitancy that can be devastating for a player's performance, especially at a position like LT. If we go with Fisher, I don't think we'll get Fisher playing at a pre-injury level and with his recent string of significant injuries, I'm a bit wary of his ability to stay healthy at his age.

[csmopar]

1 hour ago, Shive said:

The dilemma is do we bank on Fisher recovering quick enough to not miss any/a significant amount of time and hope he's still able to play at a high level when he gets back? Or do we go with Leno that almost certainly guarantees an average to above average level of performance that, unless something happens between now and the start of TC, will be healthy to start the season?

 

High risk/High reward with Fisher.

Low risk/Medium reward with Leno.

 

Fisher playing at his prior high level is the absolute best case scenario with us, although not exactly likely with the injury he's recovering from. Even if physically recovered, the mental aspect typically adds an element of hesitancy that can be devastating for a player's performance, especially at a position like LT. If we go with Fisher, I don't think we'll get Fisher playing at a pre-injury level and with his recent string of significant injuries, I'm a bit wary of his ability to stay healthy at his age.

I have the same thought

[ColtsBlueFL]

17 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I have zero clue on ATs. 

 

I do have a good friend (my old racquetball and SB buddy) , who is a doctor (family, not sports surgeon) that has torn his own knee 3 times, about once a decade over 35 years. He said the surgery was like night and day better each time. 

 

Oh yes, knee reconstruction is so very much more complex (and has so many different types of injuries) than an Achilles tendon repair. Orthopaedic surgeons are always trying to improve procedures and outcomes in the knees, and they are still chasing the holy grail of finding ways to develop a reliable and cost-effective means of regenerating the knees articular cartilage.

 

Quote

 

So who do you think has a better success record with AT repairs. WRs, RBs, or OL?

 

Let's go the other way- I know two that don't. Running backs, and Linebackers. Especially Linebackers, as I show below.  Others are probably comparable to each other in both returning rate and performance level attained.

 

3 hours ago, coming on strong said:

But if fisher is healthy by august like the reports say I’ll take him . In the playoffs a elite tackle vs a slightly above average guy will show up .

 

I'm not counting on an August return, and if he does, it will likely be with a notable reduction in performance.

 

**In a new fairly recent study (Oct. 2017), they found almost 73% of players returned to the NFL after Achilles tendon repair (recently published study in Foot and Ankle International).**

 

“Achilles tendon injuries in the NFL are common season-ending injuries that require a surgical repair,” Joshua D. Harris, MD, told Healio.com/Orthopedics. “Our recent study of 95 NFL players showed that it was also a career-ending injury in nearly 28% of those analyzed. Although postoperative performance was worse in running backs and (especially) linebackers vs. pre-injury. Results showed that at a mean of 339.8 days after surgery, 71 NFL players were able to return to sport, 24 did not."

 

The reports of an August return was Kansas City GM Brett Veach painting a rosy picture-

 

"K.C. Chiefs general manager Brett Veach says left tackle Eric Fisher is expected back by mid-August."

 

In this article-

 

https://arrowheadaddict.com/2021/03/01/kc-chiefs-news-eric-fisher-injury-update-achilles-mid-august-return/

 

It also said in the article-

 

 

Here is the Veach proclamation,

 

“I think with that injury with the time leading up for the season, Rick has here a mid-August return. You know how that works, that’s always to be determined until the player actually reports back to camp and goes through the offseason to see where he is.”

 

10 days later, he releases both Eric Fisher and Mitch Schwartz. So does he have confidence in that August date now?

 

The latest study data above shows an average 340 days for (well, for 73% of them) a player to return to play.  Fisher was hurt Jan 29, 2021. A mid August return would place Fisher’s recovery timeline at approximately 225 days, or seven and a half months. 115 days ahead of the mean return time frame.

 

You believe what you want, but I know which side of the timeline scale I'm looking at.

 

 

 

[Zoltan]

2 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Oh yes, knee reconstruction is so very much more complex (and has so many different types of injuries) than an Achilles tendon repair. Orthopaedic surgeons are always trying to improve procedures and outcomes in the knees, and they are still chasing the holy grail of finding ways to develop a reliable and cost-effective means of regenerating the knees articular cartilage.

 

 

Let's go the other way- I know two two that don't. Running backs, and Linebackers. Especially Linebackers, as I show below.  Others are probably comparable to each other in both returning rate and performance level attained.

 

 

I'm not counting on an August return, and if he does, it will likely be with a notable reduction in performance.

 

**In a new fairly recent study (Oct. 2017), they found almost 73% of players returned to the NFL after Achilles tendon repair (recently published study in Foot and Ankle International).**

 

“Achilles tendon injuries in the NFL are common season-ending injuries that require a surgical repair,” Joshua D. Harris, MD, told Healio.com/Orthopedics. “Our recent study of 95 NFL players showed that it was also a career-ending injury in nearly 28% of those analyzed. Although postoperative performance was worse in running backs and (especially) linebackers vs. pre-injury. Results showed that at a mean of 339.8 days after surgery, 71 NFL players were able to return to sport, 24 did not."

 

The reports of an August return was Kansas City GM Brett Veach painting a rosy picture-

 

"K.C. Chiefs general manager Brett Veach says left tackle Eric Fisher is expected back by mid-August."

 

In this article-

 

https://arrowheadaddict.com/2021/03/01/kc-chiefs-news-eric-fisher-injury-update-achilles-mid-august-return/

 

It also said in the article-

 

 

Here is the Veach proclamation,

 

“I think with that injury with the time leading up for the season, Rick has here a mid-August return. You know how that works, that’s always to be determined until the player actually reports back to camp and goes through the offseason to see where he is.”

 

10 days later, he releases both Eric Fisher and Mitch Schwartz. So does he have confidence in that August date now?

 

The latest study data above shows an average 340 days for (well, for 73% of them) a player to return to play.  Fisher was hurt Jan 29, 2021. A mid August return would place Fisher’s recovery timeline at approximately 225 days, or seven and a half months. 115 days ahead of the mean return time frame.

 

You believe what you want, but I know which side of the timeline scale I'm looking at.

 

 

 

 

The only problem with these studies is the population they use, because of the 24 that did not return were they already on the roster bubble? were they practice squad? how many of the 95 players were NFL starters? 

It also goes with did they have the same surgery and/or surgeon?

 

Not trying to poke holes or say it won't take 340 days, which I tend to agree with having longer rehab times to reduce chance of re-injury. It's just hard to take these studies at face value.

 

[#12.]

On Rich Eisen, Frank said they wanted a tackle, had tackles in mind, Ballard was wheeling and dealing, but it never worked out.  It just didn't happen.

 

I can't see them rolling with Tevi.  They're making some move.

[CR91]

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Leno kind of threw a unexpected twist into the fisher thing. They are going to have to really think hard about taking someone who is durable and adequate over someone who is injured but has a higher ceiling.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, Zoltan said:

 

The only problem with these studies is the population they use, because of the 24 that did not return were they already on the roster bubble? were they practice squad? how many of the 95 players were NFL starters? 

It also goes with did they have the same surgery and/or surgeon?

 

Not trying to poke holes or say it won't take 340 days, which I tend to agree with having longer rehab times to reduce chance of re-injury. It's just hard to take these studies at face value.

 

 

The 28% not returning is just one factor. The more relevant factor at this point is the nearly 73% that do return, typically taking 340 days. It highlights how unlikely it is that Fisher returns in 2021. (Same for Dayo, by the way.)

[Zoltan]

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

The 28% not returning is just one factor. The more relevant factor at this point is the nearly 73% that do return, typically taking 340 days. It highlights how unlikely it is that Fisher returns in 2021. (Same for Dayo, by the way.)

 

Yeah I get that, I was just using the 24 as an example of some of the holes in the study, there's still questions about the other 73% and the 340 days. The easy is what were the differences in injuries, what type of procedure was used?, who did the procedure? Where did they go for physical therapy? how flexible were they before the injury? Did they go to pre-hab before the surgery? How committed to doing the rehab work? Heck you can add what type of diet are they on? (because certain foods can increase inflammation) I have worked in physical therapy and in orthopedics granted I haven't worked with athletes but I have seen what it takes to get back to normal and some work harder at it than others.

 

So with this relation to the population used it is hard to get a consistent one because it's such a small group and usually they use a wide time period so they can get a large enough population to get a good p-value. Most of these studies discuss this in the discussion portion of their papers. 

[Superman]

10 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

 

Yeah I get that, I was just using the 24 as an example of some of the holes in the study, there's still questions about the other 73% and the 340 days. The easy is what were the differences in injuries, what type of procedure was used?, who did the procedure? Where did they go for physical therapy? how flexible were they before the injury? Did they go to pre-hab before the surgery? How committed to doing the rehab work? Heck you can add what type of diet are they on? (because certain foods can increase inflammation) I have worked in physical therapy and in orthopedics granted I haven't worked with athletes but I have seen what it takes to get back to normal and some work harder at it than others.

 

So with this relation to the population used it is hard to get a consistent one because it's such a small group and usually they use a wide time period so they can get a large enough population to get a good p-value. Most of these studies discuss this in the discussion portion of their papers. 

 

All good points, but doesn't that illustrate the folly of assuming a player will have a non-typical recovery with a radically shortened timeframe?

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Ballard wouldn’t sign fisher if he thought he would miss the entire season. Players all heal different. Injuries are all different. It’s just one of those things we just have to wait and see. Dayo is here long term so chances are we take our time with him.

[Zoltan]

5 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

All good points, but doesn't that illustrate the folly of assuming a player will have a non-typical recovery with a radically shortened timeframe?

That's why I said I prefer longer time frames for rehabilitation, but if someone is ready for the next step let them take it. Them getting a medical check in with Fisher is a good first look at where he is at in his rehab and learn the answers to all those questions that I wrote down, which will allow the team doctors to make better estimates when he will be able to return and what shape he will be in when he is cleared to play.

 

So to answer about the radically shortened timeframe, us as fans don't have the information to know if it is a radically shortened time frame

[Myles]

58 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Leno kind of threw a unexpected twist into the fisher thing. They are going to have to really think hard about taking someone who is durable and adequate over someone who is injured but has a higher ceiling.

Yeah, seems like a tough choice.    I think, if I had to pick between the 2, I'd go with Leno.  

Fisher is better at full strength, but Leno is very good as well.  They've both made 1 pro bowl in their careers.   The are almost the same age - Leno 29, Fisher 30.  Leno has been more dependable over the years.  Leno has played in over 99% of the snaps the past 5 years.  Fisher missed 8 games in 2019 (core muscle injury) and then the tear last season.    I'd like to sign Leno to a 3-4 year deal.

[ColtsBlueFL]

5 hours ago, Zoltan said:

 

The only problem with these studies is the population they use, because of the 24 that did not return were they already on the roster bubble? were they practice squad? how many of the 95 players were NFL starters? 

 

The study actually had a 'matched control' group.

 

**

Abstract

Background: Achilles tendon injuries are common in sports, including football. The purpose of this study was to determine (1) return-to-sport rate in National Football League (NFL) players following Achilles tendon repair, (2) postoperative career length and games per season, (3) pre- and postoperative performance, and (4) postoperative performance compared with control players matched by position, age, years of experience, and performance.

 

Methods:

Publicly available records were used to identify NFL players who underwent Achilles tendon repair and matched controls were identified. Ninety-five players (98 surgeries) were analyzed (mean age 28.2 ± 2.8 years; mean 5.5 ± 2 .8 years in NFL at time of surgery). Demographic and performance data were collected. Comparisons between case and control groups and preoperative and postoperative time points were made using paired-samples Student t tests. **

 

@SteelCityColt could explain the statistical portion much better than I can.

 

Quote

It also goes with did they have the same surgery and/or surgeon?

 

There's really only two surgical methods used to stitch the tendon back together, I pointed them out in a previous post. Any (likely the team) orthopedic surgeon or foot/ankle specialist can do it.  Players pick special doctors, but people (everyday Joe and Jane's) can and do get non-surgical or operative Achilles repair as indicated by skilled orthopedic surgeons in their own town.

 

Quote

Not trying to poke holes or say it won't take 340 days, which I tend to agree with having longer rehab times to reduce chance of re-injury. It's just hard to take these studies at face value.

 

Feel free to read it, and critique the methods, data, and results if you wish.

 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318691345_Performance_and_Return_to_Sport_After_Achilles_Tendon_Repair_in_National_Football_League_Players

 

3 hours ago, Zoltan said:

Yeah I get that, I was just using the 24 as an example of some of the holes in the study,

 

The study is above, I think you should read it in its entirety then comment  Here's another performed from 2009-2014 that paints an even more grim picture.

                 v v v

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6415485/

 

"80 NFL players were identified as having primary Achilles tendon tears between the 2009 and 2014 seasons. RTP (return to play) was defined as playing in a regular season or postseason game following injury. Probability of RTP was modeled as a function of time after injury in Kaplan-Meier analysis with demographic variables assessed via generalized linear models. Twelve players (15%) experienced a subsequent Achilles tendon tear during or after the study period and were included in the overall RTP rate but were excluded from performance analyses owing to the confounding effects of an ipsilateral retear or contralateral tear."

 

** Conclusion:

Rate of RTP (return to play) following primary Achilles tendon tears may be lower than previously published. (not reflected in the above study though). However, for those able to return, performance only in the season immediately following injury appears to be affected; players return to preinjury levels if given the opportunity to play >1 season after injury. **

 

The interesting takeaway from them is in bold/italics.

 

Quote

there's still questions about the other 73% and the 340 days. The easy is what were the differences in injuries, what type of procedure was used?, who did the procedure? Where did they go for physical therapy? how flexible were they before the injury? Did they go to pre-hab before the surgery? How committed to doing the rehab work? Heck you can add what type of diet are they on? (because certain foods can increase inflammation) I have worked in physical therapy and in orthopedics granted I haven't worked with athletes but I have seen what it takes to get back to normal and some work harder at it than others.

 

I've mentioned this before- I feel the patient/athletes biological makeup and their dedication to rehab have a much bigger influence in RTP than the typical skill of a properly executed surgical repair.

 

Quote

So with this relation to the population used it is hard to get a consistent one because it's such a small group and usually they use a wide time period so they can get a large enough population to get a good p-value. Most of these studies discuss this in the discussion portion of their papers. 

 

They do what they can.

 

 

[Colt Overseas]

Stephen Holder doesn’t expect anything soon either. As a lot of people predicted, this was a ‘see how the rehab is going’ type visit.

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

5 minutes ago, Colt Overseas said:

Stephen Holder doesn’t expect anything soon either. As a lot of people predicted, this was a ‘see how the rehab is going’ type visit.

 

 

They very well might wait until the season gets closer. 

[richard pallo]

15 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

They very well might wait until the season gets closer. 

If they wait they certainly lose the chance to sign Leno.  He could be signed this coming week.  It wouldn't hurt to bring Leno in for a visit as well.  If we are not going to sign Fisher right away then I would expect a visit with Leno will be scheduled. 

[Superman]

1 hour ago, Zoltan said:

That's why I said I prefer longer time frames for rehabilitation, but if someone is ready for the next step let them take it. Them getting a medical check in with Fisher is a good first look at where he is at in his rehab and learn the answers to all those questions that I wrote down, which will allow the team doctors to make better estimates when he will be able to return and what shape he will be in when he is cleared to play.

 

So to answer about the radically shortened timeframe, us as fans don't have the information to know if it is a radically shortened time frame

 

The mean is 340 days, a return at 225 days is a radically shortened time frame. There are outliers, as with anything else. If you want a starter at LT in 2021, are you going to bet on the outlier, or the mean?

 

Like you said, I assume the longer time frame. I always do. It was shocking to me that Blackmon played in 2020, especially as early as he did, and he looked explosive. I assume he'll be 100% in 2021, and that's a good thing. But to me, he's an outlier.

[CR91]

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Fisher might be willing to wait until closer to the beginning of the season too because the more healthy he is the more money he might get.

[Hoose]

1 hour ago, richard pallo said:

If they wait they certainly lose the chance to sign Leno.  He could be signed this coming week.  It wouldn't hurt to bring Leno in for a visit as well.  If we are not going to sign Fisher right away then I would expect a visit with Leno will be scheduled. 

I agree. Waiting on Fisher is a fool’s errand if you believe Leno is a viable alternative. If the Colts don’t grab Leno, they either don’t believe he’s that good, or they’ve talked and Leno’s contract demands are over the top. Because from all I’ve read, Leno, on paper, appears more than adequate to man the LT slot. And as this conversation has shown, Fisher may never set foot on the field in 2021. Leno will have his suiters. The Colts will have to move decisively if they want him. I hope they do.

[cdgacoltsfan]

7 minutes ago, Hoose said:

I agree. Waiting on Fisher is a fool’s errand if you believe Leno is a viable alternative. If the Colts don’t grab Leno, they either don’t believe he’s that good, or they’ve talked and Leno’s contract demands are over the top. Because from all I’ve read, Leno, on paper, appears more than adequate to man the LT slot. And as this conversation has shown, Fisher may never set foot on the field in 2021. Leno will have his suiters. The Colts will have to move decisively if they want him. I hope they do.

Ballard needs to stop procasternating , get Leno in here and get a deal done. It's a huge position of need. Stop messing around Chris!!!

[chad72]

15 minutes ago, Hoose said:

I agree. Waiting on Fisher is a fool’s errand if you believe Leno is a viable alternative. If the Colts don’t grab Leno, they either don’t believe he’s that good, or they’ve talked and Leno’s contract demands are over the top. Because from all I’ve read, Leno, on paper, appears more than adequate to man the LT slot. And as this conversation has shown, Fisher may never set foot on the field in 2021. Leno will have his suiters. The Colts will have to move decisively if they want him. I hope they do.

 

Charles Leno is visiting the WFT. 

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/former-pro-bowl-offensive-tackle-022338908.html

 

[jimmy g]

3 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Charles Leno is visiting the WFT. 

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/former-pro-bowl-offensive-tackle-022338908.html

 

I hope they Colts haven't burned their bridge to Leno if Fisher's meds aren't good.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Leno isn’t going to WA until Monday. The colts have the info they need on fisher now. If Leno wanted to come and the colts reach out I am sure there aren’t any bridges burned. I am also sure Ballard is probably going over tape and asking himself is Leno better then Tevi? He might answer that with a no he isn’t. So waiting on fisher might be what Ballard does.

[ColtsBlueFL]

23 hours ago, EastStreet said:

So who do you think has a better success record with AT repairs. WRs, RBs, or OL?

 

Best data I've come across thus far-

 

 

For OL, the mean in this case is 342 days, plus or minus 98 days.  8 out of 13 (61.5%) returned to play, 5 ( 38.5% ) did not make it back.

 

 

[coming on strong]

9 hours ago, Shive said:

The dilemma is do we bank on Fisher recovering quick enough to not miss any/a significant amount of time and hope he's still able to play at a high level when he gets back? Or do we go with Leno that almost certainly guarantees an average to above average level of performance that, unless something happens between now and the start of TC, will be healthy to start the season?

 

High risk/High reward with Fisher.

Low risk/Medium reward with Leno.

 

Fisher playing at his prior high level is the absolute best case scenario with us, although not exactly likely with the injury he's recovering from. Even if physically recovered, the mental aspect typically adds an element of hesitancy that can be devastating for a player's performance, especially at a position like LT. If we go with Fisher, I don't think we'll get Fisher playing at a pre-injury level and with his recent string of significant injuries, I'm a bit wary of his ability to stay healthy at his age.

we have the depth to take the risk on fisher and the ceiling is way higher .the bears cut leno for a reason the chiefs cut fisher because he was injured .  imagine the colts line with a elite left tackle and nelson and kelly the line will be better than last year because AC was beat up .   fisher has the character ballard loves

[Zoltan]

3 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

The study actually had a 'matched control' group.

 

**

Abstract

Background: Achilles tendon injuries are common in sports, including football. The purpose of this study was to determine (1) return-to-sport rate in National Football League (NFL) players following Achilles tendon repair, (2) postoperative career length and games per season, (3) pre- and postoperative performance, and (4) postoperative performance compared with control players matched by position, age, years of experience, and performance.

 

Methods:

Publicly available records were used to identify NFL players who underwent Achilles tendon repair and matched controls were identified. Ninety-five players (98 surgeries) were analyzed (mean age 28.2 ± 2.8 years; mean 5.5 ± 2 .8 years in NFL at time of surgery). Demographic and performance data were collected. Comparisons between case and control groups and preoperative and postoperative time points were made using paired-samples Student t tests. **

 

@SteelCityColt could explain the statistical portion much better than I can.

 

 

There's really only two surgical methods used to stitch the tendon back together, I pointed them out in a previous post. Any (likely the team) orthopedic surgeon or foot/ankle specialist can do it.  Players pick special doctors, but people (everyday Joe and Jane's) can and do get non-surgical or operative Achilles repair as indicated by skilled orthopedic surgeons in their own town.

 

 

Feel free to read it, and critique the methods, data, and results if you wish.

 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318691345_Performance_and_Return_to_Sport_After_Achilles_Tendon_Repair_in_National_Football_League_Players

 

 

The study is above, I think you should read it in its entirety then comment  Here's another performed from 2009-2014 that paints an even more grim picture.

                 v v v

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6415485/

 

"80 NFL players were identified as having primary Achilles tendon tears between the 2009 and 2014 seasons. RTP (return to play) was defined as playing in a regular season or postseason game following injury. Probability of RTP was modeled as a function of time after injury in Kaplan-Meier analysis with demographic variables assessed via generalized linear models. Twelve players (15%) experienced a subsequent Achilles tendon tear during or after the study period and were included in the overall RTP rate but were excluded from performance analyses owing to the confounding effects of an ipsilateral retear or contralateral tear."

 

** Conclusion:

Rate of RTP (return to play) following primary Achilles tendon tears may be lower than previously published. (not reflected in the above study though). However, for those able to return, performance only in the season immediately following injury appears to be affected; players return to preinjury levels if given the opportunity to play >1 season after injury. **

 

The interesting takeaway from them is in bold/italics.

 

 

I've mentioned this before- I feel the patient/athletes biological makeup and their dedication to rehab have a much bigger influence in RTP than the typical skill of a properly executed surgical repair.

 

 

They do what they can.

 

 

First thanks for posting the article, here's just a couple things I noticed:

 

1. If you look at Figure 1 They used Achilles Repair Surgeries between 1958-2016, then excluded those that had inadequate statistical records, no NFL experience, less than 1 year of NFL experience, and less than one year follow up. leaving only 95 players and 98 surgeries. Surgeries have changed alot between that time

 

2. Then in the Data collection method, it's repeated in the discussion limitations but they had no access to what type of tear they had, what type of surgery they had, etc. 

Quote

Players in the NFL who sustained an Achilles tendon tear and underwent repair were evaluated (Figure 1). These players were identified through NFL team websites, publicly available Internet-based injury reports, player profiles and biographies, and press releases.

 

3. Also if you look at figure 3 it's interesting to see that Performance score for WR Post-surgery is higher than Pre-Surgery, which is an interesting anomaly that I'm surprised they didn't discuss in the discussion section.

 

4.As for the limitations discussed in the article

Quote

The use of public data limits the ability to obtain the severity of the injury and the exact operative procedure (open or percutaneous) being performed for Achilles tendon repair.

 

Inherent to this type of study, there are multiple unknown confounding variables such as pre-surgical course and no direct physical contact or medical records access to corroborate diagnosis. Other limitations

include the absence of patient-reported outcomes.

 

[Zoltan]

3 hours ago, Superman said:

 

The mean is 340 days, a return at 225 days is a radically shortened time frame. There are outliers, as with anything else. If you want a starter at LT in 2021, are you going to bet on the outlier, or the mean?

 

Like you said, I assume the longer time frame. I always do. It was shocking to me that Blackmon played in 2020, especially as early as he did, and he looked explosive. I assume he'll be 100% in 2021, and that's a good thing. But to me, he's an outlier.

 

It is outside the standard deviation for the median and for their OL numbers which were 341 with +/- of 98.1 but I wish they used newer data because as I pointed out above they used surgeries from 1958-2016, so it makes the data harder to use for players today. Not saying its bad data.

[coming on strong]

6 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Oh yes, knee reconstruction is so very much more complex (and has so many different types of injuries) than an Achilles tendon repair. Orthopaedic surgeons are always trying to improve procedures and outcomes in the knees, and they are still chasing the holy grail of finding ways to develop a reliable and cost-effective means of regenerating the knees articular cartilage.

 

 

Let's go the other way- I know two that don't. Running backs, and Linebackers. Especially Linebackers, as I show below.  Others are probably comparable to each other in both returning rate and performance level attained.

 

 

I'm not counting on an August return, and if he does, it will likely be with a notable reduction in performance.

 

**In a new fairly recent study (Oct. 2017), they found almost 73% of players returned to the NFL after Achilles tendon repair (recently published study in Foot and Ankle International).**

 

“Achilles tendon injuries in the NFL are common season-ending injuries that require a surgical repair,” Joshua D. Harris, MD, told Healio.com/Orthopedics. “Our recent study of 95 NFL players showed that it was also a career-ending injury in nearly 28% of those analyzed. Although postoperative performance was worse in running backs and (especially) linebackers vs. pre-injury. Results showed that at a mean of 339.8 days after surgery, 71 NFL players were able to return to sport, 24 did not."

 

The reports of an August return was Kansas City GM Brett Veach painting a rosy picture-

 

"K.C. Chiefs general manager Brett Veach says left tackle Eric Fisher is expected back by mid-August."

 

In this article-

 

https://arrowheadaddict.com/2021/03/01/kc-chiefs-news-eric-fisher-injury-update-achilles-mid-august-return/

 

It also said in the article-

 

 

Here is the Veach proclamation,

 

“I think with that injury with the time leading up for the season, Rick has here a mid-August return. You know how that works, that’s always to be determined until the player actually reports back to camp and goes through the offseason to see where he is.”

 

10 days later, he releases both Eric Fisher and Mitch Schwartz. So does he have confidence in that August date now?

 

The latest study data above shows an average 340 days for (well, for 73% of them) a player to return to play.  Fisher was hurt Jan 29, 2021. A mid August return would place Fisher’s recovery timeline at approximately 225 days, or seven and a half months. 115 days ahead of the mean return time frame.

 

You believe what you want, but I know which side of the timeline scale I'm looking at.

 

 

 

since we have a decent amount of money left over i would love for  the colts to sign both guys and have fisher for the playoffs .  on one year deals there is really no risk the money is off the books for next years big signings .  leno film in run blocking scares me but he looks good at pass blocking .  fisher was elite i think he can return and be fine even if its a couple games in .  i think the money the chiefs were paying fisher was the biggest reason and his age . If fisher was 26 he would of not been cut

[NewColtsFan]

2 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

since we have a decent amount of money left over i would love for  the colts to sign both guys and have fisher for the playoffs .  on one year deals there is really no risk the money is off the books for next years big signings .  leno film in run blocking scares me but he looks good at pass blocking .  fisher was elite i think he can return and be fine even if its a couple games in .  i think the money the chiefs were paying fisher was the biggest reason and his age . If fisher was 26 he would of not been cut

We have money, but not that kind of money.   Literally don’t have that kind of money.   We still have enough needs to deal with. 
 

Okus, players like Fisher and Leno don’t want to go to the same place.   They want opportunity as much as money.  
 

Whoever we sign between the two, if that player can’t go, then it’s time for Tevi or Davenport.   At some point, one of them is the next man up. 

[Superman]

17 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

 

It is outside the standard deviation for the median and for their OL numbers which were 341 with +/- of 98.1 but I wish they used newer data because as I pointed out above they used surgeries from 1958-2016, so it makes the data harder to use for players today. Not saying its bad data.

 

All that's good, the data is awesome, but we all know that 225 days to get back to play in the NFL is really, really aggressive.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Instead of arguing let’s just wait and see what happens. There has been players injure it in jan and be back week one. None of us know how bad it was or have access to medical reports. All we know is there is optimism he could be ready by week one. Just a hunch but OCT is probably more realistic. We probably don’t sign him until it get closer to the start of the season. The big question will they go after Leno or wait on Fisher to get healthier.

[MikeCurtis]

I wonder if this is a 'NO' to Fisher

 

The doctors reviewed, I am sure that they have spoken to the surgeon that did the work

 

They have a sense of when he will be available

 

I think the hopeful folks would believe the mid August date, but the medical community would seem to say otherwise

 

If they felt he was ready to go, they would probably push to close the deal so to speak.....

 

 

I wonder if they now take a meeting with Okung and Leno

 

Either would be better than Tevi

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Hopefully Jason has a update later. Colts may be fine with Tevi and just wait and see what happens with Fishers rehab as the season gets closer. Maybe Fisher and the colts have a verbal agreement for him to sign later ones he is further along in rehab. If they don’t pursue Leno that means they are probably looking at signing Fisher at a later date. If they pursue Leno that means fishers medicals weren’t good. I really think they might be willing to wait on fisher and maybe don’t see Leno as much of a upgrade over Tevi. 

[cdgacoltsfan]

4 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Hopefully Jason has a update later. Colts may be fine with Tevi and just wait and see what happens with Fishers rehab as the season gets closer. Maybe Fisher and the colts have a verbal agreement for him to sign later ones he is further along in rehab. If they don’t pursue Leno that means they are probably looking at signing Fisher at a later date. If they pursue Leno that means fishers medicals weren’t good. I really think they might be willing to wait on fisher and maybe don’t see Leno as much of a upgrade over Tevi. 

I've said it before and I'll say it again.When it comes to free agent top tier differece makers, Ballard is way too passive.Hes a good drafter and makes good trades but he's awful at FA. The Bucs and Chiefs are aggresive. Ballards phone is in airplane mode.

..

[ColtsBlueFL]

1 hour ago, Zoltan said:

 

It is outside the standard deviation for the median and for their OL numbers which were 341 with +/- of 98.1 but I wish they used newer data because as I pointed out above they used surgeries from 1958-2016, so it makes the data harder to use for players today. Not saying its bad data.

 

Did you compare that to this more recent study, conducted with 80 NFL players identified as having Achilles tendon tears between the 2009 and 2014 seasons?

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6415485/

 

Interested in your thoughts there as well...

 

This graph on performance pre-injury stuck out to me (Red vs. Blue) and their post surgery performance; for those the made it back.

 

N

 

6 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

Instead of arguing let’s just wait and see what happens.

 

 

No arguing here, just discussion that I'm certain the Colts medical teams/FO/Coaches are having... but they have even more information.

 

6 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

There has been players injure it in jan and be back week one. None of us know how bad it was or have access to medical reports.

 

 

Right. But we do know he had surgical repair (and that history is well known in the medical field, it's nothing new), and the Chiefs GM publicly told their fans he was on target for a mid-August return. Then, the player was outright released just 10 days later. 

 

6 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

All we know is there is optimism he could be ready by week one.

 

 

This reminds me of all the people that predicted Luck would always beat his injury return estimates (and there were many). And time after time, I felt he would not, as they were too 'rosy'.  My problem with Luck's RTP with his injuries is he ultimately even made my predictions seem over optimistic. But it's not his fault, it was his biologic makeup.

 

6 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

 

Just a hunch but OCT is probably more realistic.

 

That might be realistic... nobody knows right now or in the near future.

 

6 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

We probably don’t sign him until it get closer to the start of the season. The big question will they go after Leno or wait on Fisher to get healthier.

Good question.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

7 minutes ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

I've said it before and I'll say it again.When it comes to free agent top tier differece makers, Ballard is way too passive.Hes a good drafter and makes good trades but he's awful at FA. The Bucs and Chiefs are aggresive. Ballards phone is in airplane mode.

..

I can’t even really say that Leno is a upgrade. I don’t know enough about Tevi. It does seem that fans are exaggerating a little with how bad Tevi is.  Fisher won’t have many suitors with that Achilles. It might even benefit him to wait longer so he can get more money.

[Shive]

1 hour ago, coming on strong said:

we have the depth to take the risk on fisher and the ceiling is way higher .the bears cut leno for a reason the chiefs cut fisher because he was injured .  imagine the colts line with a elite left tackle and nelson and kelly the line will be better than last year because AC was beat up .   fisher has the character ballard loves

They cut him because they literally couldn't afford him. They didn't have the cap space to sign their draft picks, so they cut Leno and are banking on Jenkins to start this year. Ryan Pace is also not a good GM, so him making questionable personnel decisions is pretty well established. That's like saying there must have been something wrong with DeAndre Hopkins because the Texans traded him for beans. Sometimes teams are run poorly, make bad decisions, and force themselves into making other bad decisions because of their prior bad decisions.

 

Leno played really well last season, especially towards the end of the season. He's a solid upgrade over Tevi and presents a known performance level. We know that we will get average to above average play from day 1. With Fisher, we may get elite play or we may get bad play, and we have no idea when he'll actually be able to go.

 

This isn't directed at you, but I find it funny how so many people are ready to write off Parris Campbell as "injury prone" and yet are clamoring to sign a 30 year old LT coming off of a torn achilles and the year before that a torn core muscle that required surgery.

[richard pallo]

6 minutes ago, Shive said:

They cut him because they literally couldn't afford him. They didn't have the cap space to sign their draft picks, so they cut Leno and are banking on Jenkins to start this year. Ryan Pace is also not a good GM, so him making questionable personnel decisions is pretty well established. That's like saying there must have been something wrong with DeAndre Hopkins because the Texans traded him for beans. Sometimes teams are run poorly, make bad decisions, and force themselves into making other bad decisions because of their prior bad decisions.

 

Leno played really well last season, especially towards the end of the season. He's a solid upgrade over Tevi and presents a known performance level. We know that we will get average to above average play from day 1. With Fisher, we may get elite play or we may get bad play, and we have no idea when he'll actually be able to go.

 

This isn't directed at you, but I find it funny how so many people are ready to write off Parris Campbell as "injury prone" and yet are clamoring to sign a 30 year old LT coming off of a torn achilles and the year before that a torn core muscle that required surgery.

Great points on Leno.  And I read one of the reasons he improved towards the end of the season is the Bears moved their best OL Whitehair from center to LG his natural position.  I would bet Leno would be even better next to Q.