The Myth Behind Not Signing Andrew Luck Now

[FireJimCaldwell]

I guess that gets to the heart of the question. Would we sign him even if he was hurt?

That would depend on the nature of the injury. Too many hypotheticals in that ball park to being to discuss.

[Superman]

I don't see the advantage of signing him early. There's not too much to negotiate on his contract; I'm pretty certain his deal will look exactly like Cam Newton's did last year, with the exception of being worth slightly more overall. But his deal will probably be fully guaranteed, just like Cam's. Negotiations should be short and sweet, now that the precedent has been set. And I think that's true across the board.

As for him being able to get a copy of the playbook a few days early, I think that would have a minimal benefit to him. Matter of fact, I doubt we have a full playbook at this point. He's probably been going over film and doing things to prepare him for camp. He did work with Tom Moore for a few days. And I'm sure there's more. Giving him a playbook that will probably change in the coming months isn't that much of a benefit in comparison with the work he's already doing.

[Chris_21]

Colts want him. He wants to be a Colt. There is the rookie salary scale. Not as important to sign a guy in advance as in years past. I am sure they have started negotiating the parameters of a deal.

[jvan1973]

I guess that gets to the heart of the question. Would we sign him even if he was hurt?

What if there was a Brandon Burlsworth type of situation. Although highly unlikely, terrible things happen everyday.

[ColtsDude27]

Im new here and i know alot about the colts and i think they should sign him now because everyone knows we are going to draft him plus he has the same chance of getting injured after the draft

agree! we should just get it over with!

[CCH]

We need to sign him ASAP, especially now that we know he still has classes and will miss some time with the coaches. We need to get him a playbook as soon as we can.

[deedub75]

I guess that gets to the heart of the question. Would we sign him even if he was hurt?

We drafted a hurt Bob Sanders........

[Andy]

I haven't really read through this thread, so I don't know if anyone's pointed this out:

Even if Luck signs now, he still can't report until mid June.

[UndecidedFrog]

I think there is a risk of keeping the Colts' options open until after draft day to sign Luck.

The longer the team keeps Luck in the dark of its intention to draft him and to sign him, it provides more uncertainty to Luck, who may yearn for some closure and certainty at this time.

The longer the Colts keep their options open only equates to the longer Luck has to think about his options of doing an Eli or Elway. From my perspective, I see Mr. Irsay publicly state that the decision is still up in the air, and I see Luck publicly answer questions in interviews with the qualifier...If the Colts draft me,....pretty much to every question asked of him (see the Rick Reilly interview).

[shakedownstreet]

We drafted a hurt Bob Sanders........

big difference between a second round pick & the first pick overall

[andreaallennyc]

Let me be clear, I'm an Andrew Luck fan, totally. I think Andrew really isn't certain that the Colts are going to draft him and is probably doing a good job of not thinking about it ... He's pretty good at that and has no presumption in him. Personally, I wish the Colts would let him know. I think that would be respectful and that you should treat people with respect ... Especially if you are looking for him to spend his NFL lifetime with you. Andrew Luck will be respectful and totally decent about this all. It's highly unlikely he'll pull an Eli even if the Colts handle this badly. I don't necessarily think they need to sign him before the draft, but they could begin negotiations. If they treat it so much as just business and jerk him around, he'll be fine, but when he has a chance to become a FA, he might look at it in terms of business. Remember he stayed at Stanford to finish college and to be able to play with the class he came in with. Money was not an issue. If the Colts treat him well, he will not be out there playing games to get the very most money. He'll be smart but will weigh relationships and how he feels about the team. If I were the Colts, I would treat him really well ... It will pay off.

I think the delay in making a public decision is probably either 1) Irsay is enjoying the drama and the publicity or 2) Irsay is trying to give the GM and coaches the feeling that they really get to make this decision, assuming or at least hoping that they choose Luck. If so everyone is happy and the GM and coaches feel respected. If they choose RGIII, I think Irsay might overrule them. Anyway, I think Luck is the better QB and the better fit for the Colts. I think RGIII has tremendous promise and is a reasonalbe choice for and better fit with the Redskins and the DC area fans ... I think they'll have a lot more tolerance for prima donnas than Indianapolis (that is a compliment to Indianapolis).

You'll LOVE Andrew Luck ... He's an all around wonderful guy. You won't be able to resist being devoted fans.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I haven't really read through this thread, so I don't know if anyone's pointed this out:

Even if Luck signs now, he still can't report until mid June.

That has been lost on most.

[andreaallennyc]

That has been lost on most.

Why is it important that he can't report until June even if he's signed now. I don't understand why the report date would be a major consideratipn. But if it is, the dates you really want to consider are those in May for the rookie mini camp. I'm sure the Colts wouldn't want their rookis quarterback to miss that because his contract wasn't signed.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Why is it important that he can't report until June even if he's signed now. I don't understand why the report date would be a major consideratipn. But if it is, the dates you really want to consider are those in May for the rookie mini camp. I'm sure the Colts wouldn't want their rookis quarterback to miss that because his contract wasn't signed.

The fact of the matter is that it is too soon to sign him for the Colts to get a benefit out of doing so. There is no concern about not getting the contract signed. There is just no benefit in getting him inked right now, 20 some odd days in front of the draft. Andy was just pointing out that some feel that if he's signed right now he can start having study sessions with the OC or QBC and that is simply not the case. Outside of a couple of weekend camps, he's going to be in Stanford.

It's not about him not being signed. They'll sign him right before or right after the draft as they should.

[andreaallennyc]

The fact of the matter is that it is too soon to sign him for the Colts to get a benefit out of doing so. There is no concern about not getting the contract signed. There is just no benefit in getting him inked right now, 20 some odd days in front of the draft. Andy was just pointing out that some feel that if he's signed right now he can start having study sessions with the OC or QBC and that is simply not the case. Outside of a couple of weekend camps, he's going to be in Stanford.

It's not about him not being signed. They'll sign him right before or right after the draft as they should.

OK ... I knew you two weren't questionning the issue if signing him, just the timing. I think from a pure good business perspective, it would be good for them to start negotiating soon because you don't know whether it will take a couple of days or a longer. But like I said in an earlier post, I really don't think it's important for them to sign him now, I think at or after shortly draft day is fine. Certainly before the rookie mini camp, which is all he can attend until his finals are over in June. But I think it is shortsighted of them not to tell him. It's inconsiderate, if they have made up their minds, to subject someone to these games. Just because they can do it, doesn't mean they should.

[FireJimCaldwell]

OK ... I knew you two weren't questionning the issue if signing him, just the timing. I think from a pure good business perspective, it would be good for them to start negotiating soon because you don't know whether it will take a couple of days or a longer. But like I said in an earlier post, I really don't think it's important for them to sign him now, I think at or after shortly draft day is fine. Certainly before the rookie mini camp, which is all he can attend until his finals are over in June. But I think it is shortsighted of them not to tell him. It's inconsiderate, if they have made up their minds, to subject someone to these games. Just because they can do it, doesn't mean they should.

The negotiation shouldn't take that long at all. It's more of here is the deal, sign it. It certainly isn't like before the rookie salary structure, then the team could play Luck and RGIII against each other trying to get one to bite on a better deal for the team. The only question will be whether the Colts will fully guarantee it. Last year some teams did that with the rookies, some didn't. Polian refused to with Costanzo, a rookie tackle drafted in the first round last year, So the dollars and cents are all but finalized per the cba.

While the level of risk in signing him now is small, there is simply too much time left to do so now. If Irsay wants to convey to Luck he's going to be the #1 pick, then so be it.

[Dan]

So wait, why can't we do this:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/04/06/robert-griffin-iii-already-learning-redskins-offense/

[El Poonerator]

I honestly think the Colts are doing the responsible thing and weighing the options for both QBs. Rash decisions usually end in mistakes. I am a huge Luck backer and I think Grigson and Irsay are as well, but this is a potential make or break move. Can't blame them for taking their time on this.

[MEAT]

We drafted a hurt Bob Sanders........

Yes and he rarely changed.

[Dothraki]

So wait, why can't we do this:

http://profootballta...dskins-offense/

My thoughts exactly! What is stopping the Colts from getting an early start on teaching Luck the offense?

[haughvillian]

My thoughts exactly! What is stopping the Colts from getting an early start on teaching Luck the offense?

Because Grigs has to evaluate him up until they're on the clock. That's what he said...

[Phil J]

My thoughts exactly! What is stopping the Colts from getting an early start on teaching Luck the offense?

we have no idea whether or not they left a playbook with them in Palo Alto this past week. why not assume they did?

[Phil J]

Because Grigs has to evaluate him up until they're on the clock. That's what he said...

smoke screen.

[UndecidedFrog]

My thoughts exactly! What is stopping the Colts from getting an early start on teaching Luck the offense?

I think it could be one of these 2 possibilities:

1) The Colts really have not decided that Luck should be their pick.

2) The Colts have already decided that Luck will be their pick, but are holding off signing because of any one or combination of the following:

2a) They perceive that the risk of injury to Luck between now and draft day outweighs the benefit of ramping him up on the offense.

2b) They like to preserve the media attention on the owner of the team until the very last second

From my understanding of Luck's character, he would not consent to begin learning anything proprietary to any team, if they have not signed him. I may be wrong in this, but I hope I'm not.

[Superman]

I think there is a risk of keeping the Colts' options open until after draft day to sign Luck.

The longer the team keeps Luck in the dark of its intention to draft him and to sign him, it provides more uncertainty to Luck, who may yearn for some closure and certainty at this time.

The longer the Colts keep their options open only equates to the longer Luck has to think about his options of doing an Eli or Elway. From my perspective, I see Mr. Irsay publicly state that the decision is still up in the air, and I see Luck publicly answer questions in interviews with the qualifier...If the Colts draft me,....pretty much to every question asked of him (see the Rick Reilly interview).

I personally don't see any considerable likelihood of Luck pulling an Eli or an Elway.

[UndecidedFrog]

I personally don't see any considerable likelihood of Luck pulling an Eli or an Elway.

I think it is unlikely as well. However, if the Colts have not yet privately communicated that they will pick him to Luck, the probability increases, even if that increment is ever so small.

[Superman]

I think it is unlikely as well. However, if the Colts have not yet privately communicated that they will pick him to Luck, the probability increases, even if that increment is ever so small.

So if it goes from 0.1% to 1.0%, I think that's still not a reason to worry about signing him early.

I'm not against signing him early, I just don't get why it matters.

The incentive in years past was to negotiate with your guy to make sure you could reach terms with him, especially because the money could be so ridiculously insane. So when the Texans opened negotiations with Reggie Bush, and determined that he wanted way more money than they were willing to pay him, that helped them decide not to take him. They went and negotiated with Mario Williams, got more favorable numbers, and inked the deal. Same thing with Matt Stafford and the Lions; they wanted to make sure they could reach terms before they drafted him, and it allowed them to avoid a protracted negotiation or even a holdout with their first round draft pick.

That situation doesn't exist anymore. The money is determined by the CBA, as are the years and options. The only thing to be negotiated is the guaranteed money, and the precedent was set pretty easily and firmly by the Panthers and Cam Newton last year. There's really nothing to negotiate with the first overall pick. We'll give the first pick the same contract the Panthers gave Cam Newton last year, just for a little bit more money.

So, whether they sign him early or not, it doesn't matter.

[haughvillian]

Well, at least the Skins are publicly committing to RGIII! Even at their own risk I guess.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/04/06/robert-griffin-iii-already-learning-redskins-offense/

[UndecidedFrog]

So if it goes from 0.1% to 1.0%, I think that's still not a reason to worry about signing him early.

I'm not against signing him early, I just don't get why it matters.

The incentive in years past was to negotiate with your guy to make sure you could reach terms with him, especially because the money could be so ridiculously insane. So when the Texans opened negotiations with Reggie Bush, and determined that he wanted way more money than they were willing to pay him, that helped them decide not to take him. They went and negotiated with Mario Williams, got more favorable numbers, and inked the deal. Same thing with Matt Stafford and the Lions; they wanted to make sure they could reach terms before they drafted him, and it allowed them to avoid a protracted negotiation or even a holdout with their first round draft pick.

That situation doesn't exist anymore. The money is determined by the CBA, as are the years and options. The only thing to be negotiated is the guaranteed money, and the precedent was set pretty easily and firmly by the Panthers and Cam Newton last year. There's really nothing to negotiate with the first overall pick. We'll give the first pick the same contract the Panthers gave Cam Newton last year, just for a little bit more money.

So, whether they sign him early or not, it doesn't matter.

Please don't misunderstand me. I am not arguing signing him early or not.

I am arguing that the Colts, even if they do not sign him early, should at the very least tell Luck that he will be their choice privately. All it would take is a phone call from Mr, Irsay to Luck. I don't know if this has or has not already happened, obviously.

This will prevent the 0.1% from becoming anything more, and would show some consideration for the uncertainty and anxiety associated with a high draft prospect's feelings.

[haughvillian]

Well, at least the Skins are publicly committing to RGIII! Even at their own risk I guess.

http://profootballta...dskins-offense/

Add one more article to the opinion pages..

http://www2.timesdispatch.com/sports/2012/apr/06/tdsport01-colts-should-trust-their-luck-and-quiet--ar-1822606/

[Superman]

Please don't misunderstand me. I am not arguing signing him early or not.

I am arguing that the Colts, even if they do not sign him early, should at the very least tell Luck that he will be their choice privately. All it would take is a phone call from Mr, Irsay to Luck. I don't know if this has or has not already happened, obviously.

This will prevent the 0.1% from becoming anything more, and would show some consideration for the uncertainty and anxiety associated with a high draft prospect's feelings.

I think that's all kind of overstated, honestly. It wouldn't surprise me if the Colts have already intimated to Luck that they intend to pick him. And if they haven't already, they probably will before the draft. It's no big surprise.

But even if they don't, I don't think that Luck would be driven toward pulling an Eli because the Colts didn't swoon over him and roll out the red carpet weeks before the draft. I think the chances of that happening are highly unlikely, as mentioned before, and I don't think the Colts management should make that a part of their thought process at this point.

[UndecidedFrog]

I think that's all kind of overstated, honestly. It wouldn't surprise me if the Colts have already intimated to Luck that they intend to pick him. And if they haven't already, they probably will before the draft. It's no big surprise.

But even if they don't, I don't think that Luck would be driven toward pulling an Eli because the Colts didn't swoon over him and roll out the red carpet weeks before the draft. I think the chances of that happening are highly unlikely, as mentioned before, and I don't think the Colts management should make that a part of their thought process at this point.

I hope the Colts have more than intimated to Luck that he will be their choice.

I hope that Mr. Irsay has called Mr, Luck to tell him that the Colts intend to call his name as their #1 overall draft pick.

If the Colts have not already done this, I am not saying that Luck will go right ahead and do an Eli or Elway. I am saying that the chances (however incrementally small it may be) will be better that such an unlikely occurrence may happen. I would not want to increase (by any amount) those chances.

Consider the following:

1) The Colts have requested a private workout with Luck, which he has obliged.

2) The Colts have requested a private workout with RG3, which he has denied

3) The Redskins have their OC visiting RG3 multiple times between now and the draft.

4) and the Colts continue to say publicly that their decision is still up in the air.

I don't think Luck will do an Eli (no matter what happens or does not happen). However, I can only imagine what Luck may think of the Colts (or even the Redskins) organization given the above facts, if the Colts have not communicated to him already that he will be their pick.

[Flash7]

What could it hurt if they let it be known publically that they will draft Andrew Luck? It's clear that the Redskins have done this with RGIII. If people think that it will eliminate any offers for the first pick, the Colts already eliminated this as a possibility by releasing Manning. Currently our biggest need is a QB and that could be filled by Luck, one of the best prospects to come around in years. I go back to this, if they already know that they want to draft Luck, then go ahead and make it known. What do we gain by not doing this? We don't have to sign him for all of the mentioned reasons, but at least let Luck, the team, and the fans start to think ahead.

[Superman]

I hope the Colts have more than intimated to Luck that he will be their choice.

I hope that Mr. Irsay has called Mr, Luck to tell him that the Colts intend to call his name as their #1 overall draft pick.

If the Colts have not already done this, I am not saying that Luck will go right ahead and do an Eli or Elway. I am saying that the chances (however incrementally small it may be) will be better that such an unlikely occurrence may happen. I would not want to increase (by any amount) those chances.

Consider the following:

1) The Colts have requested a private workout with Luck, which he has obliged.

2) The Colts have requested a private workout with RG3, which he has denied

3) The Redskins have their OC visiting RG3 multiple times between now and the draft.

4) and the Colts continue to say publicly that their decision is still up in the air.

I don't think Luck will do an Eli (no matter what happens or does not happen). However, I can only imagine what Luck may think of the Colts (or even the Redskins) organization given the above facts, if the Colts have not communicated to him already that he will be their pick.

I don't think that should be a part of their thought process. I think the only thing that should matter right now should be getting the best player they can get. I'm sure they all believe that's Luck, and I think there's a 99.999% chance that Luck is the pick, regardless. I think Luck could get caught dancing shirtless on top of the Wall Street Bull, and the Colts would still pick him first overall. And I think that's the case because he's the best football player at the most important position in the sport (or sports period, if you ask me), and we need a player at that position. I think the decision was made before we cut Manning. I think it was made before the Combine when the Colts told Luck they didn't need to see him throw there.

However, if they are worried about making Luck feel good about this situation, then they are misdirecting their attention. This is a monumental decision that they have to get right, regardless of Luck's feelings. And how the Redskins are treating Griffin right now doesn't really matter. Luck will feel good when his name is called first. If he has a little bit of angst in the days and weeks before that, he'll get over it in about 3.4 seconds.

That said, I expect Irsay to call Luck at least a couple days before the draft and let him know that he'll be the pick. It wouldn't even surprise me for them to agree to terms before the draft. But here we are, three weeks before the draft, and if Irsay doesn't let Luck know what his decision is some time soon, I don't think Luck would decide to force his way out of Indy. That can't be on Irsay's radar right now.

[Superman]

By the way, if the Colts come out and announce now that Luck is the pick and they've agreed to terms, then fine. There's nothing wrong with that. I just don't think it matters.

[Warhorse]

Sarcasm on:

I am a little unsettled about the fact that my team has been turned upside down and I want....no I DEMAND....that the team either sign Luck or tell him he is our QB. That way I feel better about my life and I can begin to heal from this awful wrong the Colts have bestowed upon me.

Sarcasm Off.

[UndecidedFrog]

Sarcasm on:

I am a little unsettled about the fact that my team has been turned upside down and I want....no I DEMAND....that the team either sign Luck or tell him he is our QB. That way I feel better about my life and I can begin to heal from this awful wrong the Colts have bestowed upon me.

Sarcasm Off.

. Very good. I remember this to be very similar to some of the histrionics demonstrated about a month ago.

[funktacious2]

1) Do we even have a playbook yet to give him?

2) From what I've heard Andrew Luck's ability to remember call sheets, plays, etc... is insane. I think even if we wait to sign him when we draft him, he will learn the playbook in no time.

3) I had chicken and mashed potatoes for dinner, it was delicious. I would share, but I ate it all.

[UndecidedFrog]

1) Do we even have a playbook yet to give him?

2) From what I've heard Andrew Luck's ability to remember call sheets, plays, etc... is insane. I think even if we wait to sign him when we draft him, he will learn the playbook in no time.

3) I had chicken and mashed potatoes for dinner, it was delicious. I would share, but I ate it all.

Yes, I think it would be a good idea to wait until the Redskins share their playbook with Luck too, so that he can memorize that before becoming a Colt.

http://washington.cbslocal.com/2012/04/06/report-redskins-meeting-with-robert-griffin-iii-and-andrew-luck-before-draft/

[Dr. T]

I think it could be one of these 2 possibilities: 1) The Colts really have not decided that Luck should be their pick. 2) The Colts have already decided that Luck will be their pick, but are holding off signing because of any one or combination of the following: 2a) They perceive that the risk of injury to Luck between now and draft day outweighs the benefit of ramping him up on the offense. 2b) They like to preserve the media attention on the owner of the team until the very last second From my understanding of Luck's character, he would not consent to begin learning anything proprietary to any team, if they have not signed him. I may be wrong in this, but I hope I'm not.

There is one other insane possibility that Frog did not mention:

3) That the Colts are tying to get something out of the Skins because they know that they want RG3 so badly. Luck was probably told he would be the pick, but the Colts will threaten to pick RG3 anyway (AND PERHAPS EVEN GO THROUGH WITH IT: That's the scary part.) Then there is an immediate trade like what happened with Eli and Rivers. I seriously hope the Colts don't do this. What can we get from the Skins anyway? A third round pick??