Stanford in the 2021 Draft....

[NewColtsFan]

 

This year,  perhaps more than any other year in my 9 years here as a member of Colts.com Stanford has more draft worthy players than I can recall.

 

And, for a variety of complicated reasons that I won't bore you with,  the football program has taken a very sharp downturn,  and it's not clear if or when we will ever be a very good program again.  

 

So, I thought I'd write small profiles of our Stanford kids....    this will be in order of how I think they will come off the board.    I will try to place them within 40 picks.   Normally I try for smaller windows than that,  but this year, with the impact on Covid on the scouting world,  anything is possible.....     So, here we go...

 

LT Walker Little

 

The kid was just born to play Left Tackle.   The consensus number one OT when he came out of HS,  as you know, due to injury,  Little hasn't played since September of 2019.   But PFF had a great, and I think telling stat....    in his last 6 starts of the 2018 season, and his one start in 2019,   Little allowed just one pressure.   That's it.    Others may test better,  others might be a little longer,  but the kid just plays at a very high level.   So, if you can deal with the fact that it will take some time for the rust to come off,  I think Little is a highly desirable LT candidate.   Could he go at the bottom of the first?   Yes,  but not likely.    Could he fall to the top of the 4th?   Yes, but not likely.   So, I think he's a clear Day 2 kid,  and the sweet spot for him would be pick 40-80.    Whether we trade out of the 1st and take him at the top of R2, or he somehow falls to pick 54,  I'd be thrilled if Little was our future LT.

 

QB Davis Mills

 

I admittedly haven't seen as much tape on Mills as I would've liked,  but Mills is one of my all-time Favorite Stanford QB's, and that's extremely high praise.   I've liked him since Stanford recruited him and he looked like a man against boys in High School.   Calm, poised, polished...   the game looks slow and almost easy to him.   he throws an extremely catchable ball.   Whether he's throwing short, medium or long,  he knows how to reach his receivers.    Mills was one of, if not, THE top HS QB when he came to Stanford.   Only injuries stopped him from playing more.  Assuming his injuries cleared by medicals,  a team would have to do a lot of projection (like with Little) as he only has 11 starts spread over 2 seasons.   That's roughly 40 percent of what teams ideally want from a college QB.    Most people wonder about Mac Jones and his 17 starts.   So, you'd have speculate that if he had played more,  we'd be talking about a first rounder.   Daniel Jeremiah called him the QB in this draft who WON'T be a first rounder,  and yet might still end up as an NFL starter.   Compared him that way to Kirk Cousins.   So, I'm projecting is 40 pick spread to be

pick 50-90.    While I love, LOVE DM,  I don't see him as a Colts QB.   I think we're invested in Eason, and I'm fine with that.

 

CB Paulsen Adebo

 

A year ago,  some mocks projected Adebo might be a first rounder corner in 2021.    I never thought that, but I certainly thought he'd be a Day 2 kid and likely a R2 kid all day long.   Yet,  in January, I saw mock after mock call him a Day 3 player likely R's 4-5.   And I wondered could sitting out the year have hurt the kid that much?    In his two years of starting (18 & 19)  Adedbo led ALL college CB's in passes defensed (8 interceptions and 30 breakups) and whoever was next was a distant second.    Isn't that what every teams wants in their corner?    Well, after PA tested very well at his pro day,  I'm now seeing Adebo typically mocked in the 3rd round.   OK,  so sitting out a year may cost the kid one round,  but it shouldn't cost him more than that.  He should go in the third round,  and I'm listing his 40 pick spread at 65-105.   (There are 105 picks this year through 3 rounds).   I think he'd be a perfect candidate for the Colts if we get a 3rd round pick.

 

WR Simi Fehoko

 

Simi was 6'4" and 185 when Stanford first recruited him.   He's leaving a year early and he's now 225.   So, he's now a big boy!   And even though he's really improved over his time, he's still very much a work in progress in need of polishing.   He'd likely be someone's 4th WR his first year...  then 3rd...   and then, maybe someone's starter.   I liken him a little to a poor man's Michael Pittman.   But MP is a little more polished and refined.    But he tested WAY better than expected,  much better than expected -- at least better than the Stanford fan base thought he would.   I've thought of him as a solid 4th round pick in this class,  but his pro day testing has edged him up some.   I'm seeing him mocked a lot now in the late 3rd.   So, my 40 pick range is 85-125.   I think he might be a candidate for the Colts in R3 or 4.

 

C Drew Dalman

 

A favorite in the Stanford community for a variety of reasons.   He's the son of a very popular former Stanford player,  Chris Dalman who also played center..   Chris had an 8-year NFL career and he's coached both at Stanford and at the High School Level.   He's now the Athletic Director of his former HS.   Both father and son are admired and respected.   But Drew is small by many NFL standards.  He's 6'3" and 295-300.  And he's got a smallish frame that might not allow for much growth.   Saw one write-up saying he'd be too small to be thought of as a starting NFL center for roughly half the teams in the league.   So, when you're only dealing with roughly 16 teams.  I think that drops him down at least a round or so.    My 40 pick spread for him is 125-165.   2nd half of R4 thru the top half of R5.  Nothing wrong with that.   But I don't think he'd be a candidate for the Colts.  Just too small.

 

Oddly enough,  Chad Reuter is highly in love with the Stanford 21 class.   He also mocked LB Curtis Robinson in R5, pick 169 and WR Connor Wedington in R6, pick 220.   Hey, I love my Stanford kids as much as anyone.   But I've tried to build my credibility on the subject by always being very careful with who I think is Colts-worthy player,  and who is just an undrafted free agent candidate.   And both of those kids should not be drafted any higher than R7, or taken as a free agent after the draft.   They're great special teamers,  but I don't see either doing any more than that.  If we sign either of those after the draft -- fine.    But otherwise....    sorry, but no.

 

Even more strange,  Reuter mocked the five Stanford top kids ALL on Day 2.   All in R's 2-3.   Little, Mills, Adebo, Fehoko and even Dalman,  all in R's 2 and 3.   Frankly, I was more than just a little surprised.   I just don't see it.    I'll be thrilled for those kids,  but I'm not expecting it.   I don't ever recall Reuter being this high on Stanford kids before.  I hope he's right,  but I don't think he is.

 

[Hoose]

Don’t you see Fehoko as a potential move TE? Speed, hands, can definitely get bigger. He’d be a fun player to watch as he grew into that role. 

[NewColtsFan]

3 minutes ago, Hoose said:

Don’t you see Fehoko as a potential move TE? Speed, hands, can definitely get bigger. He’d be a fun player to watch as he grew into that role. 

 

Honestly, not at all.   I see him as a big WR, just like the growing number of NFL WR's who are roughly 6'3" or 6'4" and 220-ish.    I don't think he should get any bigger.    He just needs more polish and more experience.   Think he could be a really good, really solid WR.  

[Hoose]

Time will tell. He has a chance to be a fine pro and should be fun to watch, whoever gets him. 

[aReggie7]

Thanks for the write up NCF. Lots of good Stanford guys in this draft.

 

I'm really intrigued by Little, Adebo, and Fehoko for the Colts. All seem like the type of prospects that Ballard likes.

 

It is going to be really interesting to see where Little ends up in general. I think his injury history is what will hold him back more so than sitting out due to Covid. Ballard has said before that the most important thing that is done at the combine is gathering the medical information so I'm interesting to see how/if no combine this year hurts guys with injury questions more so than in years past. 

[Defjamz26]

I can’t say any CB fits our zone system better than Adebo would. I just wonder if Ballard can look past the 31” arms. If we trade down he’s an ideal pickup in round 3.

[krunk]

18 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

This year,  perhaps more than any other year in my 9 years here as a member of Colts.com Stanford has more draft worthy players than I can recall.

 

And, for a variety of complicated reasons that I won't bore you with,  the football program has taken a very sharp downturn,  and it's not clear if or when we will ever be a very good program again.  

 

So, I thought I'd write small profiles of our Stanford kids....    this will be in order of how I think they will come off the board.    I will try to place them within 40 picks.   Normally I try for smaller windows than that,  but this year, with the impact on Covid on the scouting world,  anything is possible.....     So, here we go...

 

LT Walker Little

 

The kid was just born to play Left Tackle.   The consensus number one OT when he came out of HS,  as you know, due to injury,  Little hasn't played since September of 2019.   But PFF had a great, and I think telling stat....    in his last 6 starts of the 2018 season, and his one start in 2019,   Little allowed just one pressure.   That's it.    Others may test better,  others might be a little longer,  but the kid just plays at a very high level.   So, if you can deal with the fact that it will take some time for the rust to come off,  I think Little is a highly desirable LT candidate.   Could he go at the bottom of the first?   Yes,  but not likely.    Could he fall to the top of the 4th?   Yes, but not likely.   So, I think he's a clear Day 2 kid,  and the sweet spot for him would be pick 40-80.    Whether we trade out of the 1st and take him at the top of R2, or he somehow falls to pick 54,  I'd be thrilled if Little was our future LT.

 

QB Davis Mills

 

I admittedly haven't seen as much tape on Mills as I would've liked,  but Mills is one of my all-time Favorite Stanford QB's, and that's extremely high praise.   I've liked him since Stanford recruited him and he looked like a man against boys in High School.   Calm, poised, polished...   the game looks slow and almost easy to him.   he throws an extremely catchable ball.   Whether he's throwing short, medium or long,  he knows how to reach his receivers.    Mills was one of, if not, THE top HS QB when he came to Stanford.   Only injuries stopped him from playing more.  Assuming his injuries cleared by medicals,  a team would have to do a lot of projection (like with Little) as he only has 11 starts spread over 2 seasons.   That's roughly 40 percent of what teams ideally want from a college QB.    Most people wonder about Mac Jones and his 17 starts.   So, you'd have speculate that if he had played more,  we'd be talking about a first rounder.   Daniel Jeremiah called him the QB in this draft who WON'T be a first rounder,  and yet might still end up as an NFL starter.   Compared him that way to Kirk Cousins.   So, I'm projecting is 40 pick spread to be

pick 50-90.    While I love, LOVE DM,  I don't see him as a Colts QB.   I think we're invested in Eason, and I'm fine with that.

 

CB Paulsen Adebo

 

A year ago,  some mocks projected Adebo might be a first rounder corner in 2021.    I never thought that, but I certainly thought he'd be a Day 2 kid and likely a R2 kid all day long.   Yet,  in January, I saw mock after mock call him a Day 3 player likely R's 4-5.   And I wondered could sitting out the year have hurt the kid that much?    In his two years of starting (18 & 19)  Adedbo led ALL college CB's in passes defensed (8 interceptions and 30 breakups) and whoever was next was a distant second.    Isn't that what every teams wants in their corner?    Well, after PA tested very well at his pro day,  I'm now seeing Adebo typically mocked in the 3rd round.   OK,  so sitting out a year may cost the kid one round,  but it shouldn't cost him more than that.  He should go in the third round,  and I'm listing his 40 pick spread at 65-105.   (There are 105 picks this year through 3 rounds).   I think he'd be a perfect candidate for the Colts if we get a 3rd round pick.

 

WR Simi Fehoko

 

Simi was 6'4" and 185 when Stanford first recruited him.   He's leaving a year early and he's now 225.   So, he's now a big boy!   And even though he's really improved over his time, he's still very much a work in progress in need of polishing.   He'd likely be someone's 4th WR his first year...  then 3rd...   and then, maybe someone's starter.   I liken him a little to a poor man's Michael Pittman.   But MP is a little more polished and refined.    But he tested WAY better than expected,  much better than expected -- at least better than the Stanford fan base thought he would.   I've thought of him as a solid 4th round pick in this class,  but his pro day testing has edged him up some.   I'm seeing him mocked a lot now in the late 3rd.   So, my 40 pick range is 85-125.   I think he might be a candidate for the Colts in R3 or 4.

 

C Drew Dalman

 

A favorite in the Stanford community for a variety of reasons.   He's the son of a very popular former Stanford player,  Chris Dalman who also played center..   Chris had an 8-year NFL career and he's coached both at Stanford and at the High School Level.   He's now the Athletic Director of his former HS.   Both father and son are admired and respected.   But Drew is small by many NFL standards.  He's 6'3" and 295-300.  And he's got a smallish frame that might not allow for much growth.   Saw one write-up saying he'd be too small to be thought of as a starting NFL center for roughly half the teams in the league.   So, when you're only dealing with roughly 16 teams.  I think that drops him down at least a round or so.    My 40 pick spread for him is 125-165.   2nd half of R4 thru the top half of R5.  Nothing wrong with that.   But I don't think he'd be a candidate for the Colts.  Just too small.

 

Oddly enough,  Chad Reuter is highly in love with the Stanford 21 class.   He also mocked LB Curtis Robinson in R5, pick 169 and WR Connor Wedington in R6, pick 220.   Hey, I love my Stanford kids as much as anyone.   But I've tried to build my credibility on the subject by always being very careful with who I think is Colts-worthy player,  and who is just an undrafted free agent candidate.   And both of those kids should not be drafted any higher than R7, or taken as a free agent after the draft.   They're great special teamers,  but I don't see either doing any more than that.  If we sign either of those after the draft -- fine.    But otherwise....    sorry, but no.

 

Even more strange,  Reuter mocked the five Stanford top kids ALL on Day 2.   All in R's 2-3.   Little, Mills, Adebo, Fehoko and even Dalman,  all in R's 2 and 3.   Frankly, I was more than just a little surprised.   I just don't see it.    I'll be thrilled for those kids,  but I'm not expecting it.   I don't ever recall Reuter being this high on Stanford kids before.  I hope he's right,  but I don't think he is.

 

Little is good. I like!

[Fluke_33]

I’d love for little and fehoko.  I heard fehoko compared to metcalf but that may just be based on his recent 40 and his size.  Not sure if the comparison was meant to indicate draftability or expected production. 

[NewColtsFan]

For what it’s worth....   today, while double checking something at PFF,  I saw they have Fehoko as a high 4th round pick and Adebo was ranked........  126.   Middle of the 4th round. 
 

Either they think Paulson is just not all that, or, they don’t put much value on zone corners.   Otherwise, I don’t get that ranking at all......     

[Boondoggle]

Dalman is terrible.  But the others yeah I agree they have a lot of nice options in this draft.

 

Fehoko in particular I like.  Really nice size, smooth mover with good upside for a big guy in his route tree.  Physical too, sort of like a mini-TE underneath when he gets the ball.  He'd look really nice in this offense.

 

And Little might be something at OT.  The time he missed might make him slide but he's a quality prospect in a very, very strong class.

[Boondoggle]

Check his run with the ball at 2:35

 

[NewColtsFan]

This seems like a good place to tell my favorite Mills story, because it’s soooo bizarre.  (Though, it’s a little long...) 

 

Stanford plays UCLA this year.  Mills comes in to the game having thrown ZERO interceptions.  And that’s his history, he doesn’t throw many.

 

So, 3rd, quarter, Stanford leads by 7.  Mills throws a puck.   UCLA drives and scores, game tied.

 

Next series, FIRST play, Mills nit only throws another puck, it’s a Pick-6!   Stanford trails by 7. 
 

Next series, FIRST play, Mills throws yet ANOTHER pick.   UCLA drives and scores.  Stanford down by 14.

 

Three straight passes, on three straight drives, and three straight picks.  Not sure I’ve seen that in more than 50 years of following football.   How woukd Mills handle this? 

 

Now, if you just tuned in, Mills is not hanging his head.  No mopping on the sidelines.  If you just tuned in and couldn’t see the score, you couldn’t tell the disaster that Stanford had just gone through.

 

Down 14, and about 7 minutes to go, Mills leads Stanford back with two Kate touchdowns, including the last one inside a minute.  Game now tied and Mills still looks the same, cool, calm, collected. 
 

Stanford scores in the first OT, and the second OT.   Stanford comes from behind to win and Mills has this look as if to say...  “I told you, I got this.”

 

A really impressive talent. 

[NewColtsFan]

16 minutes ago, Boondoggle said:

Check his run with the ball at 2:35

 

Yeah, that poor corner surely got the worst of that. 

[NFLfan]

23 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

And, for a variety of complicated reasons that I won't bore you with,  the football program has taken a very sharp downturn,  and it's not clear if or when we will ever be a very good program again

 

I agree. That saddens me. Stanford has not done well with recruiting lately.

 

I'm hoping the Vikings use one of their many draft picks on Mills. I'm very high on him. He is not my favorite Stanford QB, as I was a big fan of Hogan (and Luck too, of course), but I would like to see him in a Vikings uniform.