A Hoose Mock with one major trade

[Hoose]

I’m in the camp where Ballard will trade down in the first round  to get another pick. The question is always how far down to go. Here, I’m proposing an unusual swap where the Colts gain a 3rd round pick both in ‘21 and ‘22. 
Trade with Miami: Colts give up # 21 and 54. Miami trades # 36, 50, and 81 plus a 2022 3rd round pick. A 4th round pick this year would be a pretty even points value swap of picks, but because it’s next year, the pick flips to a 3rd rounder. 

The Draft:

#36: Payton Turner, DE, Hou

#50: Pat Friermuth, TE, Penn St.

#81: Spencer Brown, LT, N. Iowa

Round 4: Marquez Stevenson, WR, Hou

Round 5: Derrick Barnes, LB, Purdue

Round 6: Deommodore Lenoir, CB, Ore.

Round 7: Israel Mukuamu, S/CB, S. Car.

[Hoose]

No feedback? Just 5 days before the draft? Good, bad or ugly, hopefully I’ll hear something back. 

[LiveAndLetAddai]

 So you want to trade out of the 1st, and lose the 5th year rookie option, to gain 2 3rds and move up 4 spots in the 2nd?

[Hoose]

20 minutes ago, WentzinRome said:

 So you want to trade out of the 1st, and lose the 5th year rookie option, to gain 2 3rds and move up 4 spots in the 2nd?

Yup. I gain two third round picks. 

[Hoose]

2 minutes ago, Hoose said:

Yup. I gain two third round picks. 

Look at it this way. The Colts get back a well positioned third round pick this year, have two second round picks plus move up a little in the second from their own slot, and gain a solid pick for 2022 when they likely have no first rounder. It’s one way to get picks but not the only way. Any thoughts on the players drafted?

[LiveAndLetAddai]

5 minutes ago, Hoose said:

Yup. I gain two third round picks. 

 So you give up more value than you receive then.  A 1st rounder has a much higher grade than 2 3rds, and of course, the 5th year rookie option.  I personally don't like it, but I respect your work.  Thanks for clarifying. 

[LiveAndLetAddai]

1 minute ago, Hoose said:

Look at it this way. The Colts get back a well positioned third round pick this year, have two second round picks plus move up a little in the second from their own slot, and gain a solid pick for 2022 when they likely have no first rounder. It’s one way to get picks but not the only way. Any thoughts on the players drafted?

 If the players you picked are there, nice job.  I would rather get my LT or CB at 21 as one of them will be there.

[Hoose]

You’re forgetting the first second rounder. Add in the three picks from Miami this year and a third next year and the Colts come out ahead. Not drastically but they certainly don’t lose value. 

[Hoose]

1 minute ago, WentzinRome said:

 If the players you picked are there, nice job.  I would rather get my LT or CB at 21 as one of them will be there.

I certainly get that. But staying at 21 likely means no way to get an extra Day 2 pick. That was the premise of my draft. And I personally believe that Ballard will seriously entertain a fair option to get that third round pick back. But we’ll see. 

[LiveAndLetAddai]

1 minute ago, Hoose said:

You’re forgetting the first second rounder. Add in the three picks from Miami this year and a third next year and the Colts come out ahead. Not drastically but they certainly don’t lose value. 

  I have no problem trading down in the 1st, but you lose value by accepting lesser talent in the 3rd as compensation.  There is a reason that players are graded by round for a reason.  I am not a fan of trading down in the 1st if you do it below 20, as you will most likely get a 3rd that is almost a 4th.

Just now, Hoose said:

I certainly get that. But staying at 21 likely means no way to get an extra Day 2 pick. That was the premise of my draft. And I personally believe that Ballard will seriously entertain a fair option to get that third round pick back. But we’ll see. 

 I would rather get my "guy" than worry about a 3rd.

 

[MikeCurtis]

First off......I like Payton .... ALOT

 

But I think that you have him a  bit early

 

I like Pat - ALOT

 

I think that we need to be grabbing a Tackle at the second pick

 

Spencer MAY be a LT, but more people see him as a RT

 

This draft fills some holes, with some players I like, but the LT spot needs more attention

[funktacious2]

This is one of those drafts that I would be down with IF we really believe Brown can become a future starter. I'll commend you for going against the grain though and not just going some combination of DE and OT 1-2. I like the players, but I would just have to trust in Ballard with a draft like this because Turner seems possibly early, and OT seems addressed late.

[NewColtsFan]

3 hours ago, Hoose said:

No feedback? Just 5 days before the draft? Good, bad or ugly, hopefully I’ll hear something back. 

 

 

I think it's way, way too big for both teams    Without even looking at how the points might factor in,  I don't think Miami would want to do this.     They're collecting picks, and they be losing 4 premium picks over two drafts to collect two premium picks in this draft.    I think it's way too rich for the Dolphins.  

 

As for the Colts...  the one issue that jumped out at me was Freirmuth at pick 50.   He might last until then, but I don't see it happening.    I think he's highly likely to go before then.    And if he does,  was the trade really worth it?

[Hoose]

40 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

 

I think it's way, way too big for both teams    Without even looking at how the points might factor in,  I don't think Miami would want to do this.     They're collecting picks, and they be losing 4 premium picks over two drafts to collect two premium picks in this draft.    I think it's way too rich for the Dolphins.  

 

As for the Colts...  the one issue that jumped out at me was Freirmuth at pick 50.   He might last until then, but I don't see it happening.    I think he's highly likely to go before then.    And if he does,  was the trade really worth it?

These are fair comments. From both teams’ perspectives. If you’re Miami you obviously do this only if there is an impact player you badly want that you know has no chance lasting until the second round. If you’re the Colts you do it because you’re fairly confident of getting two players you want that will be there early and mid 2nd round. AND you get that elusive third round pick in the middle of the round instead of at the end of round 3 as most have speculated a trade would bring. Three very good picks. 
I think Payton Turner has a chance to be there at 54, but he could also go early round 2. He’s a rising choice. I think Friermuth is very similar to Turner. And I think Brown has a very good chance to be on Ballad’s  radar due to his Sr. Bowl performance, his off the charts RAS number, and his incredible size. He’s a LT and a potential monster. 
Thanks to you and others for weighing in. It’s no fun to do ‘em if nobody comments! 

[coltsfan40]

18 hours ago, Hoose said:

I’m in the camp where Ballard will trade down in the first round  to get another pick. The question is always how far down to go. Here, I’m proposing an unusual swap where the Colts gain a 3rd round pick both in ‘21 and ‘22. 
Trade with Miami: Colts give up # 21 and 54. Miami trades # 36, 50, and 81 plus a 2022 3rd round pick. A 4th round pick this year would be a pretty even points value swap of picks, but because it’s next year, the pick flips to a 3rd rounder. 

The Draft:

#36: Payton Turner, DE, Hou

#50: Pat Friermuth, TE, Penn St.

#81: Spencer Brown, LT, N. Iowa

Round 4: Marquez Stevenson, WR, Hou

Round 5: Derrick Barnes, LB, Purdue

Round 6: Deommodore Lenoir, CB, Ore.

Round 7: Israel Mukuamu, S/CB, S. Car.

Love your draft especially rd 3 pick a lot of teams want this guy ! Look at Horseshoeheros article about this young man !! He isn't just numbers so great his play backs it up ! Great job !

[tvturner]

Payton Turner at 36 is a nightmare selection

[polk_high_allstar]

22 hours ago, WentzinRome said:

 So you give up more value than you receive then.  A 1st rounder has a much higher grade than 2 3rds, and of course, the 5th year rookie option.  I personally don't like it, but I respect your work.  Thanks for clarifying. 

Brought up the 5th year option up in a post a few days ago.  I feel like the standard trade chart everybody bases their "value" on doesn't take this into account.  Based on the standard chart the difference between the last pick in the 1st and the first pick in the 2nd is only 10 points.  Having that 5th year option is worth way more then that.  

[LiveAndLetAddai]

40 minutes ago, polk_high_allstar said:

Brought up the 5th year option up in a post a few days ago.  I feel like the standard trade chart everybody bases their "value" on doesn't take this into account.  Based on the standard chart the difference between the last pick in the 1st and the first pick in the 2nd is only 10 points.  Having that 5th year option is worth way more then that.  

Thank you Mr. Bundy!

[polk_high_allstar]

6 minutes ago, WentzinRome said:

Thank you Mr. Bundy!

Yes Sir.

 

4 touchdowns in a single game!

[LiveAndLetAddai]

1 hour ago, polk_high_allstar said:

Yes Sir.

 

4 touchdowns in a single game!

I thought it was 6