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The reality of the Colts 2021 draft


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Like all radical draft fans, I scour the internet daily for interesting tidbits about the upcoming draft...especially where it pertains to my Colts. I have my theories, which are sometimes different f

I don't agree with this. The clear need is LT and pass rush. The colts have added depth, but not a single quality starter at either positions

I mean if we look at what Ballard has done, yea there are clear needs in the draft from what we see (LT and DE) and I'm sure he will get them filled via this years draft at some point (I mean I feel l

1. Good point on Mack. And CB is big on player development, and has said ad nauseam that he thinks pass rushers take a while to develop. He has a lot of young potential players he thinks could be gold. Remains to be seen if any of those FA DE's he didn't sign backfire in his face, one thing is for sure, none of them was at the level of #99

 

2. 100% nailed it. He is like a boa constrictor, patient as it gets. 

 

3. Exactly. He puts himself in a position for BPA, and this year he's signed some swing OTs in FA while knowing that it's a rich OT class. 

 

If i were betting, i'd put money on a trade down, unless a blue player drops to him.....which may happen.

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1 hour ago, Four2itus said:

Like all radical draft fans, I scour the internet daily for interesting tidbits about the upcoming draft...especially where it pertains to my Colts. I have my theories, which are sometimes different from my guesses, just like all of you might have. Here is a list of things I think I think. 

 

Rampant assumptions that are often falsehoods:

1) The Colts didn't do enough in FA. First of all, Free agency is neither won nor lost before the season has been executed to determine the success or failure of lost/acquired/or not acquired players. Let's take Mack for example. Some felt it was not money well spent to re-sign him. Goodness forbid... if Taylor went down and Mack saves the season for the RB position, it will look like a pretty astute signing. Right now, a lot of fans are feeling like the Colts did not address the pass rush in FA. This of course, ignores young players and their expected development. It also ignores what I will address in the next point....

 

2) Free Agency is done and over. The front office is working on FA 365 days a year. When the period opens for teams to (openly) sign the players they want, fans salivate over big names. First of all, the percentage of success on big name FA's is not so good. However, the percentage of success on value for big name FA's is down right horrid. I LOVE Ballard's seemingly relaxed approach to FA, even though in reality....it is not. It is calculated, cool blooded, and precise. He appears to have a great patience to only pay for players that will be a good value, while developing the players he has selected in the draft process. To further my comment in point #1, this season is quite unique. Because of Covid, the cap was much lower than earlier predictions, and there are teams that will have to make hard decisions both prior, during, and right after the draft. I'll bet CB has a target and a $$$/value on every single player that might get let go/cut here in the close future. The Colts may be done acquiring players other than the draft.......and they may not.

 

3) The Colts will take an olineman or pass rush with their first pick. They might. They might not. If you have been paying attention to what Ballard has said, and to what he has done, it's seems quite clear to me. He has put the team in a position to take the BPA. In my 4 decades of following the NFL, I have never seen a GM who is more transparent as to what he will do. First of all, he loves picks. He likes to trade picks for more picks. If there is a way he can create more with value...I expect he will. Next, he will not draft for need/now. He drafts BPA with the future in mind. Of course, I think we would all love seeing a top OT or Edge player fall, but I am not expecting it. QB, OT, and pass rush are what all teams want. That very well might push a quality WR, TE, CB, LB, or S to us at 21. 

 

 

I don't agree with this. The clear need is LT and pass rush. The colts have added depth, but not a single quality starter at either positions

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2 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

I don't agree with this. The clear need is LT and pass rush. The colts have added depth, but not a single quality starter at either positions

Are you saying "You" don't agree with my take...or you think I am off on Ballard's thinking?

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4 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

Are you saying "You" don't agree with my take...or you think I am off on Ballard's thinking?

 

I think the idea that we're going into the draft this year thinking BPA is incorrect. The colts have clear needs.

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6 minutes ago, CR91 said:

I don't agree with this. The clear need is LT and pass rush. The colts have added depth, but not a single quality starter at either positions

I usually say bpa, but we have one of the worst DE groups in the league and its not clear who the LT will be.  No guarantees with the 21st pick but they have to be looking into those spots this year

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I mean if we look at what Ballard has done, yea there are clear needs in the draft from what we see (LT and DE) and I'm sure he will get them filled via this years draft at some point (I mean I feel like Irsay has even been saying so the past month lol). But there are also times when Ballard surprises us because he sees past the current draft/season and sometimes to me almost knows that an injury is coming. For me I look at past drafts and think why did you draft him. 4-6 months later, I'm like, Ballard you genius you've done it again.

 

Examples for me are:

2018 draft, 2nd Round: Braden Smith G, right after he had just picked Nelson

2018 draft, 4th Round: Nyheim Hines RB, right after he had picked Mack the year before

2018 draft, 5th Round: Jordan Wilkins, he just picked a RB the round before

2019 draft, 3rd Round: Bobby Okereke, he had Leonard and Walker plus LBs the year before

2020 draft, 2nd Round: Jonathan Taylor, Mack had a great year before but we all know what happened at the start of the season

2020 draft, 3rd Round: Julian Blackmon, another S

2020 draft: 6th Round: Jordan Glasgow, another LB/S hyrbid, must be camp fodder...

 

And we all know how those turned out. All those picks to me above have been stellar performers or very solid contributors even though at the time we really couldn't see the need for needing them other just pure depth.


 

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Purely my opinion, but I think this year is a bit different. Of course nobody knows what will happen but overall my thoughts are.....

 

  1. Ballard will try to find a multiplier to turn his first two picks into 3 picks in the first 2 rounds. 
  2. I'd predict we sign a vet DE, be it Houston or some one else, and take a DE in the first two rounds. However you look at it, Ballard has not been successful in the DE space since he's come to Indy. Outside of FAs, he just hasn't found that much production. Right now the existing DEs on the roster are either ?s, tweeners, or second tier guys. 
  3. Assuming we don't sign a legit OL in FA, he has to take one in first two rounds. Maybe early third if he trades picks. 

All in all, our D wasn't near as good as our ranks suggested last year, at least on the pass D side. While some may be down on Houston and Autry, they had good production, and missing them doesn't make us better. And we can't go long with a guy like Tevi at LT and expect our O to be at the level (top 10ish) it was last year with a new QB to boot.

 

I'm still predicting DE and LT as the first two picks, even if we trade. The need is just vastly higher than other positions. 

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If a player they love falls, regardless of position, they will take him. 
 

I do expect that round 1 will be an Edge and round 2 will be a Tackle, but they won’t reach to far down their board.

 

For example, if they love Micah Parsons (just using him as an example) and he falls, I could see them taking him. Fill the holes later.

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8 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

I think the idea that we're going into the draft this year thinking BPA is incorrect. The colts have clear needs.

 And they haven’t had clear needs in previous drafts?

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9 hours ago, Four2itus said:

Like all radical draft fans, I scour the internet daily for interesting tidbits about the upcoming draft...especially where it pertains to my Colts. I have my theories, which are sometimes different from my guesses, just like all of you might have. Here is a list of things I think I think. 

 

Rampant assumptions that are often falsehoods:

1) The Colts didn't do enough in FA. First of all, Free agency is neither won nor lost before the season has been executed to determine the success or failure of lost/acquired/or not acquired players. Let's take Mack for example. Some felt it was not money well spent to re-sign him. Goodness forbid... if Taylor went down and Mack saves the season for the RB position, it will look like a pretty astute signing. Right now, a lot of fans are feeling like the Colts did not address the pass rush in FA. This of course, ignores young players and their expected development. It also ignores what I will address in the next point....

 

2) Free Agency is done and over. The front office is working on FA 365 days a year. When the period opens for teams to (openly) sign the players they want, fans salivate over big names. First of all, the percentage of success on big name FA's is not so good. However, the percentage of success on value for big name FA's is down right horrid. I LOVE Ballard's seemingly relaxed approach to FA, even though in reality....it is not. It is calculated, cool blooded, and precise. He appears to have a great patience to only pay for players that will be a good value, while developing the players he has selected in the draft process. To further my comment in point #1, this season is quite unique. Because of Covid, the cap was much lower than earlier predictions, and there are teams that will have to make hard decisions both prior, during, and right after the draft. I'll bet CB has a target and a $$$/value on every single player that might get let go/cut here in the close future. The Colts may be done acquiring players other than the draft.......and they may not.

 

3) The Colts will take an olineman or pass rush with their first pick. They might. They might not. If you have been paying attention to what Ballard has said, and to what he has done, it's seems quite clear to me. He has put the team in a position to take the BPA. In my 4 decades of following the NFL, I have never seen a GM who is more transparent as to what he will do. First of all, he loves picks. He likes to trade picks for more picks. If there is a way he can create more with value...I expect he will. Next, he will not draft for need/now. He drafts BPA with the future in mind. Of course, I think we would all love seeing a top OT or Edge player fall, but I am not expecting it. QB, OT, and pass rush are what all teams want. That very well might push a quality WR, TE, CB, LB, or S to us at 21. 

 


I simply love this post. 
 

Specific things I appreciate

1) Young player development. That is such a good point. It strikes me as entirely possible that they did not go for FA edge rusher because they want to see the growth from Turey and Banagu. 
 

2) Free agency is not over with. They will draft next week, assess their roster and add a few players. Houston,Kerrigan and Ingram will still be available next week if they deem their pass rush still needs something. I would think a vet QB is still very possible as well. 
 

3) I believe they will take a OT or DL with their first pick but not because those are the glaring needs but because the likelihood is there will be an available player highly rated on their board at one of those positions. However if a CB for example is the highest rated guy by a long shot, it will surprise me not at all that corner becomes the pick. 
 

Ballard and transparency - you are right on that.  He will hint at what is to come.  One of his core values is to build the lines on both sides of the ball. I will not be shocked if multiple players on the line are taken beyond just OT and DE. 
 

Anyway - well done. 
 

 

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8 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

I don't agree with this. The clear need is LT and pass rush. The colts have added depth, but not a single quality starter at either positions

Tackle is such a loaded position in this class though which means CB can probably find a starter right down to round 3 so it's not as if he absolutely has to pick one at the start. He has the flexibility.

Pass rush....how many quality starters are there in this draft class? Time will tell eventually but the main viewpoint right now by draftniks is that this is a weak class. i.e. CB doesn't have to force it. Again, he's in a position where he can go BPA.

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Things Chris Ballard has consistently done and, I assume, will continue to do:

1. Draft BPA for the Colts. This frequently does not match BPA for the national media. Need may play into this, but it's never the only factor.

2. Sign value free agents instead of big names. 

3. If the value is not there, trade down for more picks.

 

Things Chris Ballard does not do:

1. Spend "stupid" money for FA, especially if they are not his own players.

2. Overreach for draft picks because of need. 

3. Acquire players who do not fit with the culture of the Colts.

 

I am sure CB has players targeted at "need" positions as well as everywhere else and he will adjust based on how the draft falls. At the time, people thought Darius Leonard and Khari Willis were reaches and could have been picked later. I am hoping to see more players develop into what is needed this year, mainly Banogu and Turay, and even EJ Speed or Danny Pinter. 

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I think the BPA term is used to much.    Most GM's will draft the BPA for a "need" the team has.   Every team has several needs.   The Colts could use:

TE, LT, DE, CB and a few other spots.  If the best player available was a RB, the Colts would not draft him.  

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11 hours ago, harrisoncolts88 said:

I mean if we look at what Ballard has done, yea there are clear needs in the draft from what we see (LT and DE) and I'm sure he will get them filled via this years draft at some point (I mean I feel like Irsay has even been saying so the past month lol). But there are also times when Ballard surprises us because he sees past the current draft/season and sometimes to me almost knows that an injury is coming. For me I look at past drafts and think why did you draft him. 4-6 months later, I'm like, Ballard you genius you've done it again.

 

Examples for me are:

2018 draft, 2nd Round: Braden Smith G, right after he had just picked Nelson

2018 draft, 4th Round: Nyheim Hines RB, right after he had picked Mack the year before

2018 draft, 5th Round: Jordan Wilkins, he just picked a RB the round before

2019 draft, 3rd Round: Bobby Okereke, he had Leonard and Walker plus LBs the year before

2020 draft, 2nd Round: Jonathan Taylor, Mack had a great year before but we all know what happened at the start of the season

2020 draft, 3rd Round: Julian Blackmon, another S

2020 draft: 6th Round: Jordan Glasgow, another LB/S hyrbid, must be camp fodder...

 

And we all know how those turned out. All those picks to me above have been stellar performers or very solid contributors even though at the time we really couldn't see the need for needing them other just pure depth.


 


Ballard drafts 2-3 years down the line. So they were definitely needs...we just don’t see those future needs and/or aren’t privy to their true roster construction goals. 

 

But Smith was definitely not meant to be depth...he was drafted to be the starting RG.

 

Hines was drafted to add a pass-catching RB to the RBC they were building.

 

Okereke was drafted to take Walker’s spot because he didn’t fit the defense.

 

Taylor was drafted to make the offense more explosive. They talked about it all  that offseason...so taking a RB early shouldn’t have been the shock that it was...especially with Mack entering his final rookie deal season and missing 2-4 games per year. I don’t think Mack is supposed to still be here...he was supposed to have a good season and net a decent comp pick.

 

Similarly to Taylor and Oke, Blackmon was drafted to replace Hooker, who didn’t fit the defense and was supposed to net a comp pick in FA.

 

I think you might even see Ballard draft a S again this year, though it likely won’t in the first two rounds. But it could happen.

 

Really there are a few positions he could draft early. But I am certain they will take an OT at some point early.

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Ballard made the responsible decisions in FA period by filling holes that had blanks so if the draft totally fell apart, he could still field a team.  It wasn't really about getting better through free agency.  The OT signings are strictly backup material or being able to start someone come week 1.  

 

I don't think the quality of the free agents signed has any bearing on how much he's going to want to draft a LT.  And its a lot, IMO.

 

I also think he's going to want a plug n play DE.  No projects or ceiling guys but a day one starter who has experience in their college career.  Basham or Payton Turner fit that mold  They are the most like Autry, who left.  Choosing not to match Autry's contract tells me he's probably figuring on getting the replacement in the draft.  (maybe Lewis?...I doubt it) The other edge college candidates all seem to be replicates of Turay/Banogu, athletic and high ceiling but raw and with questions.

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12 minutes ago, shasta519 said:


Ballard drafts 2-3 years down the line. So they were definitely needs...we just don’t see those future needs and/or aren’t privy to their true roster construction goals. 

 

But Smith was definitely not meant to be depth...he was drafted to be the starting RG.

 

Hines was drafted to add a pass-catching RB to the RBC they were building.

 

Okereke was drafted to take Walker’s spot because he didn’t fit the defense.

 

Taylor was drafted to make the offense more explosive. They talked about it all  that offseason...so taking a RB early shouldn’t have been the shock that it was...especially with Mack entering his final rookie deal season and missing 2-4 games per year. I don’t think Mack is supposed to still be here...he was supposed to have a good season and net a decent comp pick.

 

Similarly to Taylor and Oke, Blackmon was drafted to replace Hooker, who didn’t fit the defense and was supposed to net a comp pick in FA.

 

I think you might even see Ballard draft a S again this year, though it likely won’t in the first two rounds. But it could happen.

 

Really there are a few positions he could draft early. But I am certain they will take an OT at some point early.

And by that measure, he's going to want to draft a replacement for Rhodes, Doyle, and possibly Glowinski (Pinter?).

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8 minutes ago, DougDew said:

And by that measure, he's going to want to draft a replacement for Rhodes, Doyle, and possibly Glowinski (Pinter?).

 

Definitely...which means CB, TE and OG are all potential options. The Colts have been connected to CBs, TEs like Tremble and even a G like Meinerz. Add in EDGE, OT, WR, LB, S and maybe even QB (though it would be really low on the list). 

 

Colts have many needs and and not many picks. And while it's very likely the Colts will trade back, I don't think they are going to be able to get many additional top 100 picks to address those "needs." 

 

So overall, I look for Ballard to trade back and target a couple of value picks on the first two days. And the trades they make will be focused on Day 3 capital and capital for next year. 

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45 minutes ago, Myles said:

I think the BPA term is used to much.    Most GM's will draft the BPA for a "need" the team has.   Every team has several needs.   The Colts could use:

TE, LT, DE, CB and a few other spots.  If the best player available was a RB, the Colts would not draft him.  

You say that, but tell me you would not want another Jonathon Taylor (or better) and then package Jordan Wilkins with pick(s) to add more picks to fill more holes. I am not saying that would happen. It's just never cut and dried. 

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If I recall I remember reading that team need is factored in to the BPA formula.  So we could take what the Colts have on their board as BPA and still be drafting a team need.  I don't see why those things are mutually exclusive.  Also by having that in the formula it takes a lot of emotional decision making out of the process. 

 

If there is a run on tackles in the first 20 picks I don't think we would reach for a lower rated tackle just because we need one.  I just don't think that is the way Ballard works.  The same with edge rushers - or any other player for that matter.  I think if Ballard doesn't see the value he is looking for at 21 he will try to trade down.

 

We tend to get focused on these positions of need and Ballard is constantly looking at how to improve every position on the team.  So if a guy they think is a great prospect is there at 21 and looks to have a much higher value than anyone else on Colts draft board I think they will take him regardless of immediate need.

 

Ballard knows that every position on the team could be 1 to 2 seasons away from needing replacement.  It's just the way the business works.  The churn on NFL rosters is fast and furious.  Sure you try to keep a core set of players that will be on the team for a while.  You don't want to develop great players and lose them all.  But the draft is the best way to be able to keep quality talent at an affordable price.  But part of that price is also taking the time to develop that talent.  

 

I am not trying to predict who we will draft as I have no idea.  I am just trying to think like Ballard.  

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1 minute ago, coltsfan1965 said:

You say that, but tell me you would not want another Jonathon Taylor (or better) and then package Jordan Wilkins with pick(s) to add more picks to fill more holes. I am not saying that would happen. It's just never cut and dried. 

Of course anything could happen, but that example would be very low odds.  

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17 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

Definitely...which means CB, TE and OG are all potential options. The Colts have been connected to CBs, TEs like Tremble and even a G like Meinerz. Add in EDGE, OT, WR, LB, S and maybe even QB (though it would be really low on the list). 

 

Colts have many needs and and not many picks. And while it's very likely the Colts will trade back, I don't think they are going to be able to get many additional top 100 picks to address those "needs." 

 

So overall, I look for Ballard to trade back and target a couple of value picks on the first two days. And the trades they make will be focused on Day 3 capital and capital for next year. 

I think Ballard sees the draft as a source for talent that needs to be replenished on a rotating basis.  He's bought two bendy edge guys in Turay and Ben in the recent past.  Whether or not they are playing up to projections doesn't matter.  You don't reload on a disappointment that quickly, so I would not expect him to look at bendy guys.  OTOH, Autry is gone, Sheard was gone, and Lewis is up for contract.  There needs to be another DE/DT tweener talent added before the third bendy guy is added.

 

Campbell and Pittman were taken recently.  He can't reload at the starting WR spots quite yet, so WR is a lower priority this draft, IMO.

 

He drafted Oke to replace Walker, and we don't need many LBs.  He's not going to look to replace Oke this draft, IMO.

 

I think he's going to look at LT, LDE (not necessarily light and bendy), TE, and CB.   I expect those 4 positions to be addressed.  A back end FS is not out of the question, but he may be looking at more of a cover 2 zone type than a cover 3 centerfielder. And Meinerz could be in play since he can also play C, somehing to think about if he thinks Kelly has durability issues.  RG/C would add versatility.

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13 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

I think the idea that we're going into the draft this year thinking BPA is incorrect. The colts have clear needs.

It doesn't mean he will force it with the 1st pick

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31 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I think Ballard sees the draft as a source for talent that needs to be replenished on a rotating basis.  He's bought two bendy edge guys in Turay and Ben in the recent past.  Whether or not they are playing up to projections doesn't matter.  You don't reload on a disappointment that quickly, so I would not expect him to look at bendy guys.  OTOH, Autry is gone, Sheard was gone, and Lewis is up for contract.  There needs to be another DE/DT tweener talent added before the third bendy guy is added.

 

Campbell and Pittman were taken recently.  He can't reload at the starting WR spots quite yet, so WR is a lower priority this draft, IMO.

 

He drafted Oke to replace Walker, and we don't need many LBs.  He's not going to look to replace Oke this draft, IMO.

 

I think he's going to look at LT, LDE (not necessarily light and bendy), TE, and CB.   I expect those 4 positions to be addressed.  A back end FS is not out of the question, but he may be looking at more of a cover 2 zone type than a cover 3 centerfielder.

I think this is pretty darned accurate. LDE may be a tackle who is a little light, but productive or a big linebacker who has rushed the passer a lot. TE will need to be addressed in some way even if MAC has a good year. CB loves LBs and Safeties, so never rule these out late second or third day. 

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36 minutes ago, coltsfan1965 said:

I think this is pretty darned accurate. LDE may be a tackle who is a little light, but productive or a big linebacker who has rushed the passer a lot. TE will need to be addressed in some way even if MAC has a good year. CB loves LBs and Safeties, so never rule these out late second or third day. 

Most teams think of TEs has either the big heavy blocker and possession guy, and the lighter receiver who can move.  I guess that role has now been labeled the 'move" TE.  Neither Doyle or MAC are that kind of TE, IMO.  Tommy Tremble can move better than both.  Ebron was the move TE, and Luck used him well in Franks O.

 

Doyle has said that he's going to retire after this season, and his replacement is already on the roster, MAC.  We need to reload talent there before its becomes a desperate need.

 

But Ballard can kick the need for a "move" TE down the road a couple of years if he signs or trades a late pick for Ertz.  So how he addresses TE in the draft this year is unclear.  LT and DE are pretty clear, IMO.

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No one wins the season in March or during the draft. In this age of instant gratification, we want to evaluate everything NOW. Many young players have make or break years. There will ALWAYS be question marks for any team going into a season. That is why it is short sighted to draft for now and not think a few years down the road. So, spot on, @Four2itus

 

One thing I can guarantee is that our cupboard of roster talent will be filled by the time the first game of the season is played. How and when, we just have to wait and see, trusting in Ballard. :) 

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25 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I think Ballard sees the draft as a source for talent that needs to be replenished on a rotating basis.  He's bought two bendy edge guys in Turay and Ben in the recent past.  Whether or not they are playing up to projections doesn't matter.  You don't reload on a disappointment that quickly, so I would not expect him to look at bendy guys.  OTOH, Autry is gone, Sheard was gone, and Lewis is up for contract.  There needs to be another DE/DT tweener talent added before the third bendy guy is added.

 

Campbell and Pittman were taken recently.  He can't reload at the starting WR spots quite yet, so WR is a lower priority this draft, IMO.

 

He drafted Oke to replace Walker, and we don't need many LBs.  He's not going to look to replace Oke this draft, IMO.

 

I think he's going to look at LT, LDE (not necessarily light and bendy), TE, and CB.   I expect those 4 positions to be addressed.  A back end FS is not out of the question, but he may be looking at more of a cover 2 zone type than a cover 3 centerfielder. And Meinerz could be in play since he can also play C, somehing to think about if he thinks Kelly has durability issues.  RG/C would add versatility.

 

Since FA didn't pan out for WR (like I had hoped)...I think it's definitely a bigger draft priority than we think (especially with the idea that the Colts are drafting not only for next season, but for the future). Look at context:

 

- Pitt had a good rookie season, but he has not emerged as a WR1 yet

- Hilton is on a one-year deal and probably won't be back next year

- Pascal is on a one-year tender and will be an UFA next offseason

- Campbell has been hurt for two years and has not proven to be reliable

- Patmon, Harris, etc. are unproven depth

 

If they like a WR in this draft...they should definitely take him.

 

But I also agree about TE. It's a huge need:

 

- Doyle is likely going to retire after this year

- MAC will be an UFA and is more of a TE2

- I can't even name the rest of the depth chart

 

Not only do I think they will draft a TE...they might not draft two. But the most likely situation will be that they draft a TE and then get Ertz from PHI.

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28 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Most teams think of TEs has either the big heavy blocker and possession guy, and the lighter receiver who can move.  I guess that role has now been labeled the 'move" TE.  Neither Doyle or MAC are that kind of TE, IMO.  Tommy Tremble can move better than both.  Ebron was the move TE, and Luck used him well in Franks O.

 

Doyle has said that he's going to retire after this season, and his replacement is already on the roster, MAC.  We need to reload talent there before its becomes a desperate need.

 

But Ballard can kick the need for a "move" TE down the road a couple of years if he signs or trades a late pick for Ertz.  So how he addresses TE in the draft this year is unclear.  LT and DE are pretty clear, IMO.

 

I wouldn't say it's clear...but I think I have a pretty good beat on it.

 

TEs take at least a year to develop, so I think they will look to draft a TE on late Day 2 (if he gets more draft capital) or early Day 3 (if they fall). Let him start developing into a TE1 role. I think Friermuth is the guy they want...but Tremble also seems like a good bet...as are McKitty and Long. 

 

And then to address the actual immediate TE need...they will get Ertz after June 1 when PHI can better eat the dead cap hit.

 

MAC will still have a role, but he's really not the short-intermediate option that Ertz/Doyle are. And after Doyle retires after this season...Ertz will assume his role going for the next couple of years as his career winds down. And MAC will either get a two-year extension or they will add cheap depth in FA.

 

At first glance, it might seem extreme to carry (4) TEs on the roster...but I think we are going to see a big bump in 12 personnel looks...which means they will need the depth.

 

The ultimate goal of the offense is to create something even better than the 2017 PHI offense. But not only are the Colts not there yet from a personnel standpoint...Wentz is also not there (given his recent play). And the last time Wentz was playing good football was the last four games of the 2019 season. During those four games, Jeffery and Agholor were both and Pederson ran the offense through his TEs and RBs. PHI ran 12 personnel 55%+ of the time in that 2019 season.

 

With a TE room that would include Ertz/Doyle/MAC/promising rookie and a RB room that includes Taylor/Hines...those pieces would be in place. And then as Wentz gets more acclimated and fixes his mechanics...they will open the offense more to include the deep ball and WRs.

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1 hour ago, shasta519 said:

 

Since FA didn't pan out for WR (like I had hoped)...I think it's definitely a bigger draft priority than we think (especially with the idea that the Colts are drafting not only for next season, but for the future). Look at context:

 

- Pitt had a good rookie season, but he has not emerged as a WR1 yet

- Hilton is on a one-year deal and probably won't be back next year

- Pascal is on a one-year tender and will be an UFA next offseason

- Campbell has been hurt for two years and has not proven to be reliable

- Patmon, Harris, etc. are unproven depth

 

If they like a WR in this draft...they should definitely take him.

 

But I also agree about TE. It's a huge need:

 

- Doyle is likely going to retire after this year

- MAC will be an UFA and is more of a TE2

- I can't even name the rest of the depth chart

 

Not only do I think they will draft a TE...they might not draft two. But the most likely situation will be that they draft a TE and then get Ertz from PHI.

You may be right about WR. 

 

But I think the way to improve the receiving corps is to get that dynamic TE ASAP.  Then Campbell can split time with TY, Pittman remain X, the move TE can split time with the slot, and then Pascal in the mix.  

 

The problem is if you draft a WR this year, where do you intend for him to play in the future?  Pittman has his role sewed up, IMO, so its either TY or slot.  

 

I think what Ballard wants is for Campbell to develop into TY, then find a slot later which is an easier lift.  In the meantime, feed the ball to Ertz or Tremble.

 

Besides, the WR crop of rookies are a bunch of smaller slot guys or TY clones, even outside receivers like Waddle and Devonta Smith are small guys.  No big strong fast guys like a AJ Brown or DK Metcalf.

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2 hours ago, DougDew said:

Most teams think of TEs has either the big heavy blocker and possession guy, and the lighter receiver who can move.  I guess that role has now been labeled the 'move" TE.  Neither Doyle or MAC are that kind of TE, IMO.  Tommy Tremble can move better than both.  Ebron was the move TE, and Luck used him well in Franks O.

 

Doyle has said that he's going to retire after this season, and his replacement is already on the roster, MAC.  We need to reload talent there before its becomes a desperate need.

 

But Ballard can kick the need for a "move" TE down the road a couple of years if he signs or trades a late pick for Ertz.  So how he addresses TE in the draft this year is unclear.  LT and DE are pretty clear, IMO.

When did Doyle say he was retiring after next season

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1 minute ago, jvan1973 said:

When did Doyle say he was retiring after next season

First post in the thread below.  Unless there is an update....

 

 

 

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I always live listening to him. Said there are multiple players they feel comfy at taking at 21. So if a bunch of them are there expect a trade back a few spots. I don’t think we will trade out of the first though.

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8 hours ago, jskinnz said:

I would think a vet QB is still very possible as well. 

Yes. I highly doubt the Colts enter the season with Wentz and an unproven one year player. I haven't really done the research, but I wonder who the vet might be....

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Just now, Four2itus said:

Yes. I highly doubt the Colts enter the season with Wentz and an unproven one year player. I haven't really done the research, but I wonder who the vet might be....

I doubt it will be a big vet. They aren’t going to want to compete with Eason. But I do think they might bring someone in to make sure Eason earns it. They have one other QB on the roster. From what I understand the media guys have mentioned the colts are fine with Eason and if he looks bad in the preseason there will be a vet that they can sign later.

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1 hour ago, BlackTiger said:

I don't think they did enough to be a contender.  I guess the OP has lower goals than I do

 

Free agency isnt over, but the good ones are gone

 

I would hazard an educated guess that the OP does not have lower goals than you. 

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