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Excited for the Wentz to TY connection!!


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1 hour ago, Zoltan said:

The talk about being excited about his massive arm, makes me think Hilton was getting frustrated with Rivers lack of zip on his throws

Nah. Rivers led WRs pretty good. If there's an issue, it's TY's lack of separation. He hasn't been top 50 in separation the last two years. IIRC, he was ranked around 90th in 2020. 

 

TY still runs great routes, and gets good "last cut" separation, but he's just not getting speed-separation like he used to out wide. He's best in the seam vs LBs, which is why I'd love to see him run more from the slot. He ran less from the slot last year (13ish%) than he did in 2019 (18ish%).

 

I really really hope Campbell can stay healthy and start working out wide this year.

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5 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Nah. Rivers led WRs pretty good. If there's an issue, it's TY's lack of separation. He hasn't been top 50 in separation the last two years. IIRC, he was ranked around 90th in 2020. 

 

TY still runs great routes, and gets good "last cut" separation, but he's just not getting speed-separation like he used to out wide. He's best in the seam vs LBs, which is why I'd love to see him run more from the slot. He ran less from the slot last year (13ish%) than he did in 2019 (18ish%).

 

I really really hope Campbell can stay healthy and start working out wide this year.

Yep.  Campbell should be penciled in to take over TYs role, and TY should finish his career more as a slot receiver.  If we draft any receiver other than a move TE, it should be with the idea that we will need a part time slot guy next season and a full timer in 2022.  

 

I hope Campbell does not let down that plan.

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7 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Yep.  Campbell should be penciled in to take over TYs role, and TY should finish his career more as a slot receiver.  If we draft any receiver other than a move TE, it should be with the idea that we will need a part time slot guy next season and a full timer in 2022.  

 

I hope Campbell does not let down that plan.

I really think TY could extend his career a few years moving to slot. His vertical seam routes in general were very effective, and his horizontal and sit-down routes in the seam got plenty of separation. Out wide, he's just not that affective against good CBs unless he's running comebacks or back shoulders. His size didn't hurt him when he had more speed, but now it's just getting tougher and tougher on the outside. 

 

If Reich were willing to go deep more, I'd love to see us use a speedy deep specialist more. I think Harris might be able to handle that role, or even a guy later in the draft. Doubt it happens, as I just don't think Reich cares for 9 routes that much.

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1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

Nah. Rivers led WRs pretty good. If there's an issue, it's TY's lack of separation. He hasn't been top 50 in separation the last two years. IIRC, he was ranked around 90th in 2020. 

 

TY still runs great routes, and gets good "last cut" separation, but he's just not getting speed-separation like he used to out wide. He's best in the seam vs LBs, which is why I'd love to see him run more from the slot. He ran less from the slot last year (13ish%) than he did in 2019 (18ish%).

 

I really really hope Campbell can stay healthy and start working out wide this year.

Think about his QB the last two years, Brissett wouldn't throw until he saw them open which was usually to late allowing the CB to close separation and I remember throughout the season Hilton would make his cut be open but Rivers ball arriving late (due to it moving slow) to Hilton allowing the CB to recover and close the distance. I think we can all admit that Rivers and Hilton were never on the same page, and Rivers preference is bigger WRs who can grab a 50/50 ball which isn't Hilton's game.

 

I remember we had this separation talk before during the season, and I can't remember when do they measure separation? it's when the ball arrives to the WR right?

 

Edit: I got sidetracked as I was typing lol, anyways I think with Wentz's game/stronger arm fits better with Hilton, and he can potentially have a resurgent year

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20 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

Think about his QB the last two years, Brissett wouldn't throw until he saw them open which was usually to late allowing the CB to close separation and I remember throughout the season Hilton would make his cut be open but Rivers ball arriving late (due to it moving slow) to Hilton allowing the CB to recover and close the distance. I think we can all admit that Rivers and Hilton were never on the same page, and Rivers preference is bigger WRs who can grab a 50/50 ball which isn't Hilton's game.

 

I remember we had this separation talk before during the season, and I can't remember when do they measure separation? it's when the ball arrives to the WR right?

 

Edit: I got sidetracked as I was typing lol, anyways I think with Wentz's game/stronger arm fits better with Hilton, and he can potentially have a resurgent year

IDK man. I watched every game last year, and several twice. TY simply isn't get a lot of separation (unless he's running in the seam). Compare the other WRs to TY. Here's all the pass catchers from 2020, and I included TY's from 2019 too.

 

TY20 - 1.26

TY19 - 1.5

PC20 - 2.11

MP20 - 1.58

ZP20 - 1.16

MJ20 - 1.64

DH20 - 1.4

JD20 - 1.2

MAC20 - 1.57

TB20 - 1.11

 

It looks pretty much like my eyes thought across the board. Looking at River's advanced stats,.... River's "on target" and "bad throw" %s weren't bad. Both Brady and Mahomes had higher bad throw %s than Rivers. Along with my eyes, there just really isn't a stat out there that supports placing the blame on Rivers (over TY).

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4 hours ago, EastStreet said:

IDK man. I watched every game last year, and several twice. TY simply isn't get a lot of separation (unless he's running in the seam). Compare the other WRs to TY. Here's all the pass catchers from 2020, and I included TY's from 2019 too.

 

TY20 - 1.26

TY19 - 1.5

PC20 - 2.11

MP20 - 1.58

ZP20 - 1.16

MJ20 - 1.64

DH20 - 1.4

JD20 - 1.2

MAC20 - 1.57

TB20 - 1.11

 

It looks pretty much like my eyes thought across the board. Looking at River's advanced stats,.... River's "on target" and "bad throw" %s weren't bad. Both Brady and Mahomes had higher bad throw %s than Rivers. Along with my eyes, there just really isn't a stat out there that supports placing the blame on Rivers (over TY).

I saw ever game as well. 
I mean stats aren’t everything like I said with the separation stat if it’s at the point of the catch a slow ball can make separation look worse than it actually was because it’s giving the CB time to recover. 
 

what’s considered a bad throw for their percentage? If he’s on target but it’s late to the WR and the CB breaks it up how does that show in the stat of on target. 
 

But I don’t think either of us will change eachothers mind because I think we have had this conversation and it’s all in the past anyways. 

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1 hour ago, Zoltan said:

I saw ever game as well. 
I mean stats aren’t everything like I said with the separation stat if it’s at the point of the catch a slow ball can make separation look worse than it actually was because it’s giving the CB time to recover. 
 

what’s considered a bad throw for their percentage? If he’s on target but it’s late to the WR and the CB breaks it up how does that show in the stat of on target. 
 

But I don’t think either of us will change eachothers mind because I think we have had this conversation and it’s all in the past anyways. 

Instead of trying to split the atom on how stats are measured, let's keep it simple and just apply basic logic. 

 

  • Should we not expect a 31 year old to lose speed?
  • Should we not expect a tiny guy who's losing his speed, to struggle getting the same separation he relied on all these years?
  • Even if you disagree with the majority of fans (who think he's slowed), wouldn't the trained eyes of the coaches know better? And if TY still had it (and Rivers was at fault), wouldn't TY get a better/longer deal than 1 year / 8M?
  • Should we believe TY's stats are simply wrong, while most of the other pass catchers are grading better at separation while getting the same balls, by the same QB? Are stats out to get TY, or is Philip just bad throwing to TY and good to everyone else?

And nobody saying Rivers is great. But simply other pass catchers are grading better with Rivers, than TY. TY relied on his speed all these years (along with route running). He's losing that speed, and now has to rely on route running (for tough yards) and mismatches (seam and bad DBs) for the majority of his highlights. There's no mystery here. It's just getting harder for him. I really hope he can squeeze one more 1000 yard season out for the Colts. 

 

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11 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Instead of trying to split the atom on how stats are measured, let's keep it simple and just apply basic logic. 

 

Well if you are going to use stats to make a point, yes it is important how they are measured. So now that you aren't using them I'm guessing my point on separation stat was true.

 

-My last post on the subject

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WR is rarely about one guy. Has TY slowed a bit? I'm sure he has. However, we were hoping last year that Campbell or someone else could truly "stretch the field" and open up spots for TY and others. Our receivers are good, but adding someone with more downfield speed or someone who could demand more double teams or at least their best corner would help everyone, especially TY. 

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On 4/10/2021 at 3:33 PM, JediXMan said:

I’m excited for his connection with Big Mo. Similar to Luck Wentz loves his TEs and hopefully he gets more involved on offense.

I would like to seem Mo get more balls thrown his way.   Reich doesn't seem to feel the same way.

I'm more excited to see the Wentz to Campbell and Pittman connection than the Wentz to Hilton connection.

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8 minutes ago, Myles said:

I would like to seem Mo get more balls thrown his way.   Reich doesn't seem to feel the same way.

I'm more excited to see the Wentz to Campbell and Pittman connection than the Wentz to Hilton connection.

I think Reich would like to see that also, but it's a matter of Mo getting open and Wentz looking for him. I would love for Mo to get mismatches with either a bigger LB he can outrun or a smaller LB or DB he can run over. 

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On 4/10/2021 at 1:17 PM, DougDew said:

Yep.  Campbell should be penciled in to take over TYs role, and TY should finish his career more as a slot receiver.  If we draft any receiver other than a move TE, it should be with the idea that we will need a part time slot guy next season and a full timer in 2022.  

 

I hope Campbell does not let down that plan.

I've pretty much given up on Campbell. I think he's just got the injury bug..... For some reason he just seems susceptible to injury.

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Just now, Patrick Miller said:

I've pretty much given up on Campbell. I think he's just got the injury bug..... For some reason he just seems susceptible to injury.

 

I don't know about his other seasons but last year was a freak injury. Safety basically speared his knees with awful tacking technique. Majority of WR's would suffer knee damage from this.

 

1273761639-1-850x560.jpeg

 

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On 4/11/2021 at 10:33 AM, Zoltan said:

Well if you are going to use stats to make a point, yes it is important how they are measured. So now that you aren't using them I'm guessing my point on separation stat was true.

 

-My last post on the subject

My pivot away from stats was only because you doubt them (I don't). Both stats and logic suggest TY is slowing. An overwhelming number of fans agree. And his contract duration and amount support it too. Your suggestion that my using logic instead of stats (that you can't even respond to) supports your point is a massive fail in simple logic.

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On 4/10/2021 at 11:17 PM, EastStreet said:

Instead of trying to split the atom on how stats are measured, let's keep it simple and just apply basic logic. 

 

  • Should we not expect a 31 year old to lose speed?
  • Should we not expect a tiny guy who's losing his speed, to struggle getting the same separation he relied on all these years?
  • Even if you disagree with the majority of fans (who think he's slowed), wouldn't the trained eyes of the coaches know better? And if TY still had it (and Rivers was at fault), wouldn't TY get a better/longer deal than 1 year / 8M?
  • Should we believe TY's stats are simply wrong, while most of the other pass catchers are grading better at separation while getting the same balls, by the same QB? Are stats out to get TY, or is Philip just bad throwing to TY and good to everyone else?

And nobody saying Rivers is great. But simply other pass catchers are grading better with Rivers, than TY. TY relied on his speed all these years (along with route running). He's losing that speed, and now has to rely on route running (for tough yards) and mismatches (seam and bad DBs) for the majority of his highlights. There's no mystery here. It's just getting harder for him. I really hope he can squeeze one more 1000 yard season out for the Colts. 

 

TY will have a better statistical year this year than last.   Carson can throw the deep ball

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3 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

TY will have a better statistical year this year than last.   Carson can throw the deep ball

Rivers was 8th in deep ball accuracy last year so hard to say he was bad. 

 

To me, it's not "Carson can throw the deep ball", it's how much "deep" will Reich allow. And it's not like Wentz has been great deep. He was 28th last year, and 19th the year before. 

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