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BR Best move of 2021: Colts trade for Wentz


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That might be your perspective....   but if you believe in the combination of Reich and Ballard then I’d say Wentz might still be bad,  but I wouldn’t say he could “easily be bad”.   I’d say possible,

Patrick Mahomes is a regressing QB. He threw for 5,097 yds and 50 TD in 2018. Last year he threw for 4,740 yds and only 38 TDs. Can't dispute he's not regressing as the statistics back up my opinion.

Colts are very likely NOT getting the 2017 version of Wentz. If that player was a real possibility....PHI wouldn't have drafted Hurts and definitely would have acquiesced Wentz's request to be traded.

2 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:

It all depends on whether we have the 2018 Wentz or the 2020 Wentz

I expect somewhere in the middle and will gradually get better 

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6 hours ago, danlhart87 said:

How do you figure?

Giving up what we did was a possible steal 

Because the version of Wentz we traded for isn't the version everybody acts like he is

 

He could easily be bad and still end us losing our first rounder 

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19 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

That might be your perspective....   but if you believe in the combination of Reich and Ballard then I’d say Wentz might still be bad,  but I wouldn’t say he could “easily be bad”.   I’d say possible, but not likely. 
 

Reich brought out the best in Luck in one season when AL had almost no training camp. 
 

Reich brought out Rivers to one of his best seasons in his career in another year with no off-season and minimal camp. 
 

Reich helped JB to a decent first half until he got hurt.   So there is a track record of success for Frank.    There’s reason for some cautious optimism for Reich and Wentz that goes beyond just being a Colts fan. 

He was the 2nd worst starter in the league last year and has regressed for 3 straight years, it's highly possible

 

AL and Phillip were both better QBs than him

 

Brissett played safe football and was extremely average 

 

There's room for optimism but not for a guy who has been regressing at the most important position in football for years now

 

Sure, Frank has a decent track record but this is more Wentz' problem than any coach

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10 minutes ago, tvturner said:

He was the 2nd worst starter in the league last year and has regressed for 3 straight years, it's highly possible

 

AL and Phillip were both better QBs than him

 

Brissett played safe football and was extremely average 

 

There's room for optimism but not for a guy who has been regressing at the most important position in football for years now

 

Sure, Frank has a decent track record but this is more Wentz' problem than any coach

It doesn’t matter that Luck and Rivers were better.  Neither had good circumstances in their respective years.   Luck coming off surgery and no off-season.   Rivers coming off his worst year and no off-season.   
 

I have no idea what your last sentence means?   Ballard and Wentz have likely looked at every play in Wentz’s career.  They believe they can restore him physically and mentally.  They’ve invested enough that it’s on them to create success.   Again, if you believe in Reich and Ballard then you believe they can get Wentz back to where he once was.   It may not fully happen in 2021,  but it likely should by 2022.    That’s the other perspective. 

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6 hours ago, tvturner said:

He was the 2nd worst starter in the league last year and has regressed for 3 straight years, it's highly possible

 

AL and Phillip were both better QBs than him

 

Brissett played safe football and was extremely average 

 

There's room for optimism but not for a guy who has been regressing at the most important position in football for years now

 

Sure, Frank has a decent track record but this is more Wentz' problem than any coach

How can you say he has regressed the last three years. 2019 he threw for 4039 yards  27tds and only 7 picks. 2018 he threw for 3074 yards 21 tds and only 7 picks. 2017 he threw for 3296 yards 33 tds and only 7 picks. So your opinion is not accurate. Minus last year and his rookie year i would love to see him perform the stats he has the previous 3  years 

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7 hours ago, tvturner said:

Because the version of Wentz we traded for isn't the version everybody acts like he is

 

He could easily be bad and still end us losing our first rounder 

And he could easily be 2017 level. We don’t know and you don’t know either. Let’s not be negative for no reason. 

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38 minutes ago, Indyfan4life said:

And he could easily be 2017 level. We don’t know and you don’t know either. Let’s not be negative for no reason. 


There is plenty of reason to be negative about Wentz.  He was just shipped out of town after a bad season with varying reports of him not being a leader or taking coaching. I personally think the Colts stole him and will be super bowl contenders. Considering we had a generational talent retire out of nowhere and two years later we have a QB capable of MVP play...the future looks great to me.  We shouldn’t ignore the fact Wentz needs to play better than he was.  A lot riding on this move and I can see how those who don’t believe in Wentz think it’s terrible. This whole thing could go south and need rebuilt in two years and cost Ballard and Reich their jobs....I don’t think it will happen but it’s still very possible. 

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7 hours ago, tvturner said:

He was the 2nd worst starter in the league last year and has regressed for 3 straight years, it's highly possible

 

AL and Phillip were both better QBs than him

 

Brissett played safe football and was extremely average 

 

There's room for optimism but not for a guy who has been regressing at the most important position in football for years now

 

Sure, Frank has a decent track record but this is more Wentz' problem than any coach

Looking at Philly's last 3 years I'd say their entire roster regressed not just Wentz and IMO his regression had more to do with the cast around him. They seemed to have more injuries than a lot of other teams for some reason. His receiving corp and oline took a major toll and he still put up decent numbers until last season. Think they also had a mess of a coaching staff the last couple years too. And again IMO Doug Pederson didn't do him any favors with the play calling making him throw 50+ times a game considering the oline and WR's were such weaknesses.

 

I think we will all be pleasantly surprised with Wentz play this season with the cast surrounding him and Frank's play calling.

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Reports about Wentz not being  a leader are overrated IMO. The criticism was from a couple disgruntled players (one of them no longer on the team). According to an Eagles fan I know, the players were upset that Wentz didn't hang out with them at parties and bars, he preferred spending time with his family.  I think that Wentz will do well in Indy. 

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2 hours ago, Knuckles79 said:

How can you say he has regressed the last three years. 2019 he threw for 4039 yards  27tds and only 7 picks. 2018 he threw for 3074 yards 21 tds and only 7 picks. 2017 he threw for 3296 yards 33 tds and only 7 picks. So your opinion is not accurate. Minus last year and his rookie year i would love to see him perform the stats he has the previous 3  years 

I was about to chime in with the same.  4039 yards, 27TD's, 7 INT's is regressing?    I throw last season out the window because the Eagles were a bad team for any QB to manage.  

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11 hours ago, tvturner said:

Because the version of Wentz we traded for isn't the version everybody acts like he is

 

He could easily be bad and still end us losing our first rounder 


The truth is; nobody knows for sure how well Carson Wentz will play over the next few years. We just don’t know for certain. Therefore, taking a hard stance on either side is premature. We can all say; I “think” this or I “think” that. We have a right to have a gut feeling about something. However, there is no crystal ball. 
 

That said, we gave up very little for Carson Wentz (in terms of expected capital for a possible franchise quarterback). The dots could end up connecting all sorts of different ways, but they sure look promising for the Colts to have scored huge in this trade. If not then we lose a 3rd and a 2nd round pick. This was certainly worth the gamble for what could turn into a 10 plus year franchise quarterback. 
 

I think what often gets missed is what I refer to as the Miami Dolphins syndrome. They have had good teams, but couldn’t find the franchise quarterback they needed. Therefore, they would be sitting in the middle of the draft; and be in a bad draft position to move up and get one (unless they wanted to trade the farm away like the 49ers did). We have been in a similar situation over the past couple of years. This trade offers us a great opportunity to avoid consistently staying stuck in the middle of each draft and needing a quarterback. 

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For what the Colts gave up, they got a QB with career numbers:

68 games played

63% completions

113 TD's

50 INT's

248 yards per game

 

Seems the Colts did extremely well. 

 

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15 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:


The truth is; nobody knows for sure how well Carson Wentz will play over the next few years. We just don’t know for certain. Therefore, taking a hard stance on either side is premature. We can all say; I “think” this or I “think” that. We have a right to have a gut feeling about something. However, there is no crystal ball. 
 

That said, we gave up very little for Carson Wentz (in terms of expected capital for a possible franchise quarterback). The dots could end up connecting all sorts of different ways, but they sure look promising for the Colts to have scored huge in this trade. If not then we lose a 3rd and a 2nd round pick. This was certainly worth the gamble for what could turn into a 10 plus year franchise quarterback. 
 

I think what often gets missed is what I refer to as the Miami Dolphins syndrome. They have had good teams, but couldn’t find the franchise quarterback they needed. Therefore, they would be sitting in the middle of the draft; and be in a bad draft position to move up and get one (unless they wanted to trade the farm away like the 49ers did). We have been in a similar situation over the past couple of years. This trade offers us a great opportunity to avoid consistently staying stuck in the middle of each draft and needing a quarterback. 

 

Plus, if we win the division, there is a good chance this trade will look better and better as the most likely pick the Eagles will get would be somewhere in the late 20s, IMO.

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10 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Plus, if we win the division, there is a good chance this trade will look better and better as the most likely pick the Eagles will get would be somewhere in the late 20s, IMO.

It would be nice to win the SB and they end up with 32.  Most likely it will be in the 20’s somewhere.

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10 minutes ago, Wentzszn said:

It would be nice to win the SB and they end up with 32.  Most likely it will be in the 20’s somewhere.

 

...and in the current NFL, you are not going to land a franchise QB picking in the 20s. You may get lucky with a later round pick that exceeds projected expectations but a talent like Aaron Rodgers does not last till the 20s nowadays sitting and waiting for his name to be called, maybe a Johnny Manziel type might still. :) 

 

Packers have been aggressive lately though, moving up for Jaire Alexander, moving up for Darnell Savage and even moving up a tad bit for Jordan Love.

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4 hours ago, Knuckles79 said:

How can you say he has regressed the last three years. 2019 he threw for 4039 yards  27tds and only 7 picks. 2018 he threw for 3074 yards 21 tds and only 7 picks. 2017 he threw for 3296 yards 33 tds and only 7 picks. So your opinion is not accurate. Minus last year and his rookie year i would love to see him perform the stats he has the previous 3  years 

 

Colts are very likely NOT getting the 2017 version of Wentz. If that player was a real possibility....PHI wouldn't have drafted Hurts and definitely would have acquiesced Wentz's request to be traded. 

 

And your opinion about regression is actually probably inaccurate. The majority of stats point to major regression since 2017. Here are the stats (in order from 2017 to 2020):

 

Completion % (downward)

 60.2%; 69.6%; 63.9%; 57.4%

 

TD % (downward)

7.5% 5.2%, 4.4%, 3.7%

 

Y/A (downward)

7.5; 7.7; 6.7; 6.0

 

AY/A (downward)

8.3; 7.9; 7.0; 5.2

 

Passer Rating (downward)

101.9; 102.2; 93.1; 72.8

 

QBR (downward)

78.5; 62; 62.8; 49.6

 

DVOA (downward)

23.8% (6th); 8.1% (13th); 0.1% (20th); -35.9% (34th)

 

DYAR (downward)

1,047 (8th); 545 (14th); 486 (18th); -780 (36th)

 

EPA/play (dowward)

.257 (2nd); .133 (13th); .093 (20th); -.054 (31st)

 

The efficiency stats (QBR, DVOA, DYAR, EPA/play) are especially discouraging. But even if you throw out last year as if it didn't happen (and won't happen again)...and he gets back to some version of 2018-2019...that is a middle of the pack NFL starting QB (not even an upgrade over Rivers). Hard to imagine the Colts winning a SB with that QB. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

...and in the current NFL, you are not going to land a franchise QB picking in the 20s. You may get lucky with a later round pick that exceeds projected expectations but a talent like Aaron Rodgers does not last till the 20s nowadays sitting and waiting for his name to be called, maybe a Johnny Manziel type might still. :) 

 

yep.   Ballard may have just rescued the Colts from having to sit in QB purgatory for years.   The team is too good to win less than 6 games and get a top 5 pick.   

 

I think Wentz, in the next 5 years, will be right about at his career numbers in this offense.  This include his horrible season last year.

 

26 TD's

11 INT's

63% completions

4000 yards

250 yards rushing

 

I will take that.    

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5 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

Colts are very likely NOT getting the 2017 version of Wentz. If that player was a real possibility....PHI wouldn't have drafted Hurts and definitely would have acquiesced Wentz's request to be traded. 

 

And your opinion about regression is actually probably inaccurate. The majority of stats point to major regression since 2017. Here are the stats (in order from 2017 to 2020):

 

Completion % (downward)

 60.2%; 69.6%; 63.9%; 57.4%

 

TD % (downward)

7.5% 5.2%, 4.4%, 3.7%

 

Y/A (downward)

7.5; 7.7; 6.7; 6.0

 

AY/A (downward)

8.3; 7.9; 7.0; 5.2

 

Passer Rating (downward)

101.9; 102.2; 93.1; 72.8

 

QBR (downward)

78.5; 62; 62.8; 49.6

 

DVOA (downward)

23.8% (6th); 8.1% (13th); 0.1% (20th); -35.9% (34th)

 

DYAR (downward)

1,047 (8th); 545 (14th); 486 (18th); -780 (36th)

 

EPA/play (dowward)

.257 (2nd); .133 (13th); .093 (20th); -.054 (31st)

 

The efficiency stats (QBR, DVOA, DYAR, EPA/play) are especially discouraging. But even if you throw out last year as if it didn't happen (and won't happen again)...and he gets back to some version of 2018-2019...that is a middle of the pack NFL starting QB (not even an upgrade over Rivers). Hard to imagine the Colts winning a SB with that QB. 

 

 

 

It could be a swing and a miss, or a resurgence to a 2018 level Wentz for starters. You have to believe in what Frank has done with other QBs to hope for a potential ceiling of 2017 with maybe a floor of 2018. It is make or break for Wentz for sure the next 2 years for his future in this league. 

 

Just like with rookie QBs, you'd rather swing and miss than not swing at all. 

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1 minute ago, chad72 said:

 

It could be a swing and a miss, or a resurgence to a 2018 level Wentz for starters. You have to believe in what Frank has done with other QBs to hope for a potential ceiling of 2017 with maybe a floor of 2018. It is make or break for Wentz for sure the next 2 years for his future in this league. 

Reich made Rivers numbers improve.

Completion % - From 66% to 68%

TD and INT - From 23/20 to 24/11

Rating - From 88.5 to 97.0

Record - From 5-11 to 11-5

 

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48 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:


The truth is; nobody knows for sure how well Carson Wentz will play over the next few years. We just don’t know for certain. Therefore, taking a hard stance on either side is premature. We can all say; I “think” this or I “think” that. We have a right to have a gut feeling about something. However, there is no crystal ball. 
 

That said, we gave up very little for Carson Wentz (in terms of expected capital for a possible franchise quarterback). The dots could end up connecting all sorts of different ways, but they sure look promising for the Colts to have scored huge in this trade. If not then we lose a 3rd and a 2nd round pick. This was certainly worth the gamble for what could turn into a 10 plus year franchise quarterback. 
 

I think what often gets missed is what I refer to as the Miami Dolphins syndrome. They have had good teams, but couldn’t find the franchise quarterback they needed. Therefore, they would be sitting in the middle of the draft; and be in a bad draft position to move up and get one (unless they wanted to trade the farm away like the 49ers did). We have been in a similar situation over the past couple of years. This trade offers us a great opportunity to avoid consistently staying stuck in the middle of each draft and needing a quarterback. 

 

I don't know if I would call it a "great" opportunity...though it is an opportunity. They only avoid that situation if Wentz is great or terrible (so bad that he drags the entire team down). The middle ground likely puts the Colts exactly in the same spot they are now...and have been the past two years. With a QB not good enough to win a SB and with a team that is not bad enough to draft high enough to get one (if Ballard was even willing to roll that dice). Except they won't even have a 1st round pick next year if Wentz plays 70%+ of the snaps...so there really is no opportunity to even get a QB if that happens...and then they are really stuck...and will have to just run it back.

 

You are right though...that no one knows how well he will do. But the stats definitely tell one story. 

 

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5 hours ago, AwesomeAustin said:


There is plenty of reason to be negative about Wentz.  He was just shipped out of town after a bad season with varying reports of him not being a leader or taking coaching. I personally think the Colts stole him and will be super bowl contenders. Considering we had a generational talent retire out of nowhere and two years later we have a QB capable of MVP play...the future looks great to me.  We shouldn’t ignore the fact Wentz needs to play better than he was.  A lot riding on this move and I can see how those who don’t believe in Wentz think it’s terrible. This whole thing could go south and need rebuilt in two years and cost Ballard and Reich their jobs....I don’t think it will happen but it’s still very possible. 

 

I agree with your general position. I think Wentz will play well and the trade will end up being a good to very good move. However, I don't agree with your last statement, specifically that the team might need to be rebuilt in two years.

 

Even if Wentz doesn't pan out, we only have up a third and a future first. If Wentz really doesn't pan out, it won't even be that. I don't see why that means the whole thing would need to be rebuilt. We'd just be back to square one - a very good, balanced roster without a QB. 

 

It would make far more sense to maintain the roster and just continue looking for a QB option.

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4 hours ago, teganslaw said:

Reports about Wentz not being  a leader are overrated IMO. The criticism was from a couple disgruntled players (one of them no longer on the team). According to an Eagles fan I know, the players were upset that Wentz didn't hang out with them at parties and bars, he preferred spending time with his family.  I think that Wentz will do well in Indy. 

Of course he wants to home to play with his Goldens 

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1 hour ago, chad72 said:

 

It could be a swing and a miss, or a resurgence to a 2018 level Wentz for starters. You have to believe in what Frank has done with other QBs to hope for a potential ceiling of 2017 with maybe a floor of 2018. It is make or break for Wentz for sure the next 2 years for his future in this league. 

 

Just like with rookie QBs, you'd rather swing and miss than not swing at all. 

 

Obviously Frank's a good QB coach...but this QB whisperer narrative seems like a bit of a stretch. Rivers and Luck were already great QBs. JB is not even a good QB after two years with Reich. And his work with Wentz spans 13 great games in 2017...after a poor rookie season. All of the sample sizes are really small...and full of context.

 

But I will say this again...if Reich is truly a QB whisperer...then drafting a QB is 1000% the route this team should go. Then you don't have to resurrect some QB's career while he's already under a big contract...you can instead mold a cheap high upside talent from the draft and built an immediate SB window. And with Reich being the QB whisperer that he is...you don't necessarily need to draft a QB in the top 5...you can find one late in the 1st round or maybe even on Day Two.

 

But my (lack of) hope for a 2017 resurgence really doesn't have much to do with Reich. I just don't think he is that player anymore. Injuries and hits take a toll. Not to mention QBs can develop really bad habits over time.

 

And I think even using 2018 as a baseline could even be too lofty of an expectation...but we will see. He still has a gun for an arm...so that's not changing.

 

I agree with taking a swing...but I think there is a good chance they are looking for the FB on 2-2 and are going to get a curve ball. At least with a rookie...you are still early in the count and might see one. Or something like that.

 

 

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38 minutes ago, Mackrel829 said:

 

I agree with your general position. I think Wentz will play well and the trade will end up being a good to very good move. However, I don't agree with your last statement, specifically that the team might need to be rebuilt in two years.

 

Even if Wentz doesn't pan out, we only have up a third and a future first. If Wentz really doesn't pan out, it won't even be that. I don't see why that means the whole thing would need to be rebuilt. We'd just be back to square one - a very good, balanced roster without a QB. 

 

It would make far more sense to maintain the roster and just continue looking for a QB option.

 

I think the only way it's not a 1st is if Wentz gets hurt. They aren't going to bench their starting QB to save a 1st round pick. He still gives them their best chance to win...and the optics of that would be terrible. 

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54 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

I don't know if I would call it a "great" opportunity...though it is an opportunity. They only avoid that situation if Wentz is great or terrible (so bad that he drags the entire team down). The middle ground likely puts the Colts exactly in the same spot they are now...and have been the past two years. With a QB not good enough to win a SB and with a team that is not bad enough to draft high enough to get one (if Ballard was even willing to roll that dice). Except they won't even have a 1st round pick next year if Wentz plays 70%+ of the snaps...so there really is no opportunity to even get a QB if that happens...and then they are really stuck...and will have to just run it back.

 

You are right though...that no one knows how well he will do. But the stats definitely tell one story. 

 


That’s a very negative take on it. You’re seeing the extremes of this going bad. Which is possible. Not likely, but possible. The same could also be said about the extreme positive outcomes. The guy hasn’t even thrown a football in a Colts uniform yet.

 

At this moment, the only quarterback in this draft that I would absolutely take over Wentz is Trevor. I think Zach Wilson or Wentz would be a good debate. However, it’s not even close for me with Wentz vs quarterbacks 3 and lower. That’s my opinion. 

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1 hour ago, Mackrel829 said:

 

I agree with your general position. I think Wentz will play well and the trade will end up being a good to very good move. However, I don't agree with your last statement, specifically that the team might need to be rebuilt in two years.

 

Even if Wentz doesn't pan out, we only have up a third and a future first. If Wentz really doesn't pan out, it won't even be that. I don't see why that means the whole thing would need to be rebuilt. We'd just be back to square one - a very good, balanced roster without a QB. 

 

It would make far more sense to maintain the roster and just continue looking for a QB option.


Im saying that as a worst case scenario if Wentz bombs and the Colts have a losing record the next two years. That would be 4yrs since Luck retired and 6yrs total under this regime.  Very good chance Irsay cleans house.  Don’t think this will happen but would not surprise me a bit if that’s the way it went down if nothing pans out. 

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28 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:


That’s a very negative take on it. You’re seeing the extremes of this going bad. Which is possible. Not likely, but possible. The same could also be said about the extreme positive outcomes. The guy hasn’t even thrown a football in a Colts uniform yet.

 

At this moment, the only quarterback in this draft that I would absolutely take over Wentz is Trevor. I think Zach Wilson or Wentz would be a good debate. However, it’s not even close for me with Wentz vs quarterbacks 3 and lower. That’s my opinion. 

Not sure I agree with it being negative if the statistics back up his opinion...

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2 minutes ago, tvturner said:

Not sure I agree with it being negative if the statistics back up his opinion...


The statistics also have a logical explanations that have been rehashed several times over.  It’s not like this all happened in a vacuum. There were several causes and effects. 
 

I do not agree with the premise that Carson Wentz has steadily declined. In 2019, the season prior to last (less than 2 years ago), Wentz threw for over 4,000 yards, 27 TD passes, against 7 interceptions. What Colt fan wouldn’t take that every year? Unfortunately things don’t work that way, because as I mentioned above, this does not all happen in a vacuum. 
 

What happened to the Eagles in 2020 was incredible. Football is a team sport, and most teams can overcome losing a couple of starters. Only the 49ers lost more players to injury in 2020 than the Eagles. 
 

Look at this bloodbath....

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/phi/2020_injuries.htm
 

The Eagles had a lot of problems, and it was very clear that Wentz was trying to do too much. His mechanics got sloppy and he was throwing up prayers to receivers who weren’t good at coming down with 50/50 balls. 
 

Think about what happened to Peyton Manning in 2001. We suffered some injuries (including Edgerrin against KC). Peyton finished the year with 26 TDs and 23 INTs. Did Peyton regress? Mentally he was done, and we know this because he admitted it (later). I remember watching the 49ers game and Peyton was throwing up prayer after prayer. Some of his throws seemed like he didn’t even give a crap. He was checked out. That was a very hard season for him. He even thought about quitting football. His words. 
 

Look, we haven’t even seen Carson Wentz throw a single pass in a Colts uniform. He had 1 bad year, and it was a tough situation. We live and we learn. Just like Peyton did and 3 years later he set the NFL record with 49 TD passes. 
 

We know what Wentz can be when he is at the top of his game. He has shown all of us what he is capable of. If we get anything close to his best, that’s going to be one heck of a trade for the Colts. 

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1 hour ago, shasta519 said:

 

Obviously Frank's a good QB coach...but this QB whisperer narrative seems like a bit of a stretch. Rivers and Luck were already great QBs. JB is not even a good QB after two years with Reich. And his work with Wentz spans 13 great games in 2017...after a poor rookie season. All of the sample sizes are really small...and full of context.

 

But I will say this again...if Reich is truly a QB whisperer...then drafting a QB is 1000% the route this team should go. Then you don't have to resurrect some QB's career while he's already under a big contract...you can instead mold a cheap high upside talent from the draft and built an immediate SB window. And with Reich being the QB whisperer that he is...you don't necessarily need to draft a QB in the top 5...you can find one late in the 1st round or maybe even on Day Two.

 

But my (lack of) hope for a 2017 resurgence really doesn't have much to do with Reich. I just don't think he is that player anymore. Injuries and hits take a toll. Not to mention QBs can develop really bad habits over time.

 

And I think even using 2018 as a baseline could even be too lofty of an expectation...but we will see. He still has a gun for an arm...so that's not changing.

 

I agree with taking a swing...but I think there is a good chance they are looking for the FB on 2-2 and are going to get a curve ball. At least with a rookie...you are still early in the count and might see one. Or something like that.

 

 

 

I'll take a swing at the bold....

 

Not only is it NOT 1,000 %,  it's not even close.    It's closer to ZERO percent.

 

It's been posted here several times now, but perhaps you've missed it?   ESPN's Field Yates noted it right after we traded for Wentz.    That in an 8 year window, from 2009 thru 2016, NFL teams drafted 22 QBs in the first round.    Now that Goff and Wentz have been traded,  exactly none of those 22 quarterbacks are still with the team that drafted them.   ZERO.    I'm guessing Ballard knows this.

 

That's a pretty crushing number.   Don't think there's much of a comeback to ZERO.    People here love to talk about making a big trade,  drafting your Quarterback and living happily ever after.    Turns out,  the opposite is true.

 

So, we'd trade up to get a guy who the odds say is not going to work out for the Colts.    And to get a QB that may not be able to to make the playoffs, much less a deep run.    And we have a WIN-NOW team.    We are built to go now.   Even Irsay says this publicly.   Ballard too.

 

As for taking a QB later, and Frank can just do his wonders, or work his magic.   Aren't you the guy who writes about not having a QB that is good enough to win a SB.    And suddenly Frank, the guy who you think can't do anything with Wentz is going to elevate some 2nd round QB to a SB QB?     I don't think that makes any sense.    Frank and Ballard think Wentz is the guy and you're telling them they're wrong.    Even if I didn't like Wentz,  I don't think I'd be telling them they're putting their trust in the wrong QB.    That just seems.....   strange.   This is the guy they wanted.    And they got him at a reasonable cost.   Better to lose a 3 and a 1,  then to lose at least 3 number 1's, plus, plus, plus.   

 

You saw what SF paid to move up from 12 to 3?    Imagine the cost to move up from 21 to 4?    It's almost inconceivable.  And to take whoever is the best QB on the board?    

 

I've said since the Day we traded for Wentz.....    there is no guarantee this works out.   But I think there's reason for cautious optimism.   Modest optimism.    But even if this doesn't, the franchise isn't devastated by what we gave up.   We're not wiped out by the loss of those two picks.    We can still go after someone else.   So, I see mostly upside,  and very little downside.

 

Of course,  as always,  your mileage may vary.

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I don’t get the thinking that Wentz is going to bomb. Great oline and 3 great RB. A good core of WR. A coach in Reich that has already worked with him.  There is no reason to think Wentz is going to bomb. A lot of crap would have to happen for that to happen. 
 

Reich made Luck  better. He got a good half season from Brissett until teams figured him out. Rivers had a great year too.

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3 hours ago, shasta519 said:

 

I don't know if I would call it a "great" opportunity...though it is an opportunity. They only avoid that situation if Wentz is great or terrible (so bad that he drags the entire team down). The middle ground likely puts the Colts exactly in the same spot they are now...and have been the past two years. With a QB not good enough to win a SB and with a team that is not bad enough to draft high enough to get one (if Ballard was even willing to roll that dice). Except they won't even have a 1st round pick next year if Wentz plays 70%+ of the snaps...so there really is no opportunity to even get a QB if that happens...and then they are really stuck...and will have to just run it back.

 

You are right though...that no one knows how well he will do. But the stats definitely tell one story. 

 

The stats on that ***Eagles*** team tells one story.  I believe he is on a better Colts team that will tell a different story (good for us).

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16 hours ago, tvturner said:

He was the 2nd worst starter in the league last year and has regressed for 3 straight years, it's highly possible

 

AL and Phillip were both better QBs than him

 

Brissett played safe football and was extremely average 

 

There's room for optimism but not for a guy who has been regressing at the most important position in football for years now

 

Sure, Frank has a decent track record but this is more Wentz' problem than any coach

The entire Philadelphia Eagles team has regressed during that same span. That is not the team that won it all n 2017, not even close. Also, Doug Pederson is a great guy and all, but he showed after running that team for 5 years that he's not "that guy" either. We don't see people roasting tires to get out of their driveway to go sign the guy for another head coaching gig. He's another one of those Reid tree offensive guys who got a head coaching job and flubbed it up (Childress) after everyone who was good there left and got gigs elsewhere (Reich).

 

People are blaming this on Wentz way too much. He was trying to play hero ball last year and nearly got killed again doing it. If you look at his film objectively, he does have some quirks, mostly with his footwork, but the guy is brilliant at reading the field when he's not getting his head torn off.

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