Adam Schefter: 49ers will take Mac Jones at 3

[Boondoggle]

I think it's Jones for a couple reasons.

 

First, the 9ers don't need to play mind games here.  Smoke screen has zero purpose.  Top two QBs should be Lawrence then Wilson.  If one of those two fall the 9ers win the lottery.

 

Second Jones is a very good pocket QB who is more advanced than usual due to the offense at Bama and his talents of reading quickly and making good decisions.  Those talents are not in vogue in the media but look how effective good pocket QBs still are in the playoffs.  Getting to the level of mastery needed to be a difference maker from the pocket is a long road, but if you hit on one of those guys you get a long career and a ton of wins from him.  So you sacrifice the highlight plays big deal.  

 

Supply and demand are so out of whack with QBs in fact that the NFL has started to do what college teams were forced to do by the NFL drafting their QBs every year: build around athleticism.  But that doesn't mean you still can't win with a pocket QB.  I  wouldn't be too quick to call the 9ers crazy here.  If they hit on Jones they'll look like geniuses for taking a guy who is an excellent QB.  If not they'll be mocked in the media for reaching.  Bottom line is whether the guy fits your system and what you want from the QB position, and whether he's a top competitor IMO.

[danlhart87]

19 minutes ago, Boondoggle said:

I think it's Jones for a couple reasons.

 

First, the 9ers don't need to play mind games here.  Smoke screen has zero purpose.  Top two QBs should be Lawrence then Wilson.  If one of those two fall the 9ers win the lottery.

 

Second Jones is a very good pocket QB who is more advanced than usual due to the offense at Bama and his talents of reading quickly and making good decisions.  Those talents are not in vogue in the media but look how effective good pocket QBs still are in the playoffs.  Getting to the level of mastery needed to be a difference maker from the pocket is a long road, but if you hit on one of those guys you get a long career and a ton of wins from him.  So you sacrifice the highlight plays big deal.  

 

Supply and demand are so out of whack with QBs in fact that the NFL has started to do what college teams were forced to do by the NFL drafting their QBs every year: build around athleticism.  But that doesn't mean you still can't win with a pocket QB.  I  wouldn't be too quick to call the 9ers crazy here.  If they hit on Jones they'll look like geniuses for taking a guy who is an excellent QB.  If not they'll be mocked in the media for reaching.  Bottom line is whether the guy fits your system and what you want from the QB position, and whether he's a top competitor IMO.

I think Jones has the skills to succeed in SF. So many people want a guy these days who can make plays outside the pocket but like I said Jones certainly has the ability to make a name for himself. I just hope and pray no rookie QB goes to Chicago.

[stitches]

@Superman @danlhart87 For whatever it's worth, Justin Fields just jumped in the lead as the favorite to be picked at 3, by Vegas sports books. 

 

Also, Benjamin Allbright is hearing the same. Allbright has been incredibly reliable reporter in my experience.

 

 

[chad72]

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/pff-grade-counters-narrative-justin-fields-one-read-quarterback

 

https://www.49erswebzone.com/articles/146013-former-nfl-explains-criticisms-justin-fields-potential-49ers/

 

https://www.nfl.com/videos/pff-s-chahrouri-it-s-patently-ridiculous-to-think-mac-jones-goes-ahead-of-justin

 

 

Just read these articles and watch the last video and make your own objective evaluation.  

 

In that last video, he talks about that post throw to Olave that Fields made vs Clemson in the football playoffs semi-finals for a TD (he made another similar post throw as well in that game), the same throw Garropolo missed to Emmanuel Sanders in the SB vs the Chiefs, and makes a valid point that Shanahan is not going to skim over that.

[chad72]

16 hours ago, danlhart87 said:

I think Jones has the skills to succeed in SF. So many people want a guy these days who can make plays outside the pocket but like I said Jones certainly has the ability to make a name for himself. I just hope and pray no rookie QB goes to Chicago.

 

Yes Jones does. I think the 49ers are built to succeed and Kyle Shanahan has made pocket QBs like Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan, and a partially mobile Jimmy G work. He has also seen RGIII up close and personal, though RGIII was a run first QB but Shanahan got some worldly production out of him also utilizing play action to the fullest giving Alfred Morris an NFL rushing title, which he hasn't done much with Jimmy G banged up most of the time. Fields is not a run first QB, but when plays break down, his ceiling is going to be higher than that of Jones. Their floors could be the same, I believe but Fields doesn't have first round WRs or OL around him, IMO, and that has to be factored in for more tight window throws past the first read, which, contrary to the narrative, Mac Jones did not fare well.

 

The bottom line is Kyle Shanahan has gotten the best out of every QB he has coached and with all things equal at the floor level, he might go with someone that gives him a higher ceiling. 

 

The Tom Brady / Peyton Manning type of pocket QBs do not come around often. Tom Brady practiced and played in cold weather, in Michigan and NE, and was/is one of the best cold weather strong armed QBs to ever play, IMO, other than maybe Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, Mahomes will get there (because he is still a pass first QB). We all saw Peyton's ducks wobble in wind more. To equate a 'Bama college QB that is a Florida kid, and has been in warm weather all throughout his life to Tom Brady and think he will have even a part of such success as some of the best pocket QBs is a HUGE stretch. 

 

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

How in the world does anyone think Mac Jones is the 3rd best QB coming out? That is funny. I have him 5th. Not a knock on Jones because I think he will be good but 3rd??

1. Lawrence

2. Wilson

3. Fields

4. Lance

5. Jones here

-I would take Lance over Jones. I am not so sure I wouldn't take Lance over Fields but I will stick with that list.

[Superman]

18 hours ago, danlhart87 said:

Jones gets far too much hate here. He isn't gonna blow teams away but it is possible to have success from the pocket. 

 

I have no hate for Jones. Just seems like the consensus 5th best QB in this draft, a guy who would probably get drafted in the 12-18 range in most year. So the Niners giving up multiple picks for Jones is weird. This is the team that manipulated the Bears into trading up one spot for Trubisky.

 

I'll say the same thing I said about the Bears moving up in 2017. If the QB they draft winds up being a really good QB for the next decade, then they'll have no regrets. But if not, this is the kind of thing that gets coaches and GMs fired.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

@Superman @danlhart87 For whatever it's worth, Justin Fields just jumped in the lead as the favorite to be picked at 3, by Vegas sports books. 

 

Also, Benjamin Allbright is hearing the same. Allbright has been incredibly reliable reporter in my experience.

 

 

 

That's weird, because I read something over the weekend that said it will NOT be Fields.

 

Here it is: 

https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/nfl_insider_guarantees_qb_justin_fields_will_not_be_drafted_by_49ers/s1_127_34666031

[2006Coltsbestever]

I voted Mac Jones because that is what a lot of people are saying but I would take Fields or Lance if I was the 49ers. 

[stitches]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

That's weird, because I read something over the weekend that said it will NOT be Fields.

 

Here it is: 

https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/nfl_insider_guarantees_qb_justin_fields_will_not_be_drafted_by_49ers/s1_127_34666031

I don't know what to think. Purely scheme-wise and experience with simialar offense-wise IMO Lance makes the most sense... but I can see Shannahan liking Fields in that same role too. 

 

That's the weirdest of smokescreen/smoke signals I've seen recently in the draft. 

 

Also, for whatever it's worth I don't trust Lombardi.

 

In essence... right now I don't trust many. I don't think anyone has a source. Just a thought exercise - who do you think knows right now? Do you think the whole coaching staff, scouts, FO people on 49ers know? I don't think so. IMO the circle of people in the know right now is extremely limited. Shannahan, Lynch and Jed York maybe? 

 

IMO all those "sources" are not people in the know. It all started with reports from Jeremiah and Schefter about OTHER TEAMS believing it was Mac Jones. And it snowballed from there. I honestly don't think anyone has a source with actual information. IMO it's all conjecture based on faulty assumptions.

 

It's so weird. Every single respected analysts pretty much has the opinion - I wouldn't pick Jones over Fields/Lance, but this seems to be the rumor. This makes no sense to me. I have seen one(!!!) analyst with any credibility - Simms, who likes Jones over Fields/Lance and would actually get behind such a move. Everybody else is on the opposite side... why do they believe it then? No idea. 

 

I've been following several mock drafts with insiders for the teams making the picks for the respective teams. The highest Jones was picked in any of them was to the Bears at 20. Noone wants Jones. But we are hearing he's going no. 3. Makes no sense.

 

I guess, we will see in 10 days time or thereabout.

[chad72]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

I have no hate for Jones. Just seems like the consensus 5th best QB in this draft, a guy who would probably get drafted in the 12-18 range in most year. So the Niners giving up multiple picks for Jones is weird. This is the team that manipulated the Bears into trading up one spot for Trubisky.

 

I'll say the same thing I said about the Bears moving up in 2017. If the QB they draft winds up being a really good QB for the next decade, then they'll have no regrets. But if not, this is the kind of thing that gets coaches and GMs fired.

 

Exactly!!! It is just that the eye tests and a lot of stats for most of us tell a different story in the Mac Jones vs Fields vs Lance cases than the media narrative for Mac Jones being a 49er.

[chad72]

18 minutes ago, stitches said:

I don't know what to think. Purely scheme-wise and experience with simialar offense-wise IMO Lance makes the most sense... but I can see Shannahan liking Fields in that same role too. 

That's the weirdest of smokescreen/smoke signals I've seen recently in the draft. 

 

I think Kyle Shanahan is a good enough play caller that will make both Jones and Fields work for him just as he would with Lance. Ultimately, their decision becomes a make or break because of the draft capital they have given up to go get one that they think will make a difference and not have been available at No.12.

 

No matter who goes to SF will have a good record, the question will be if they can put them over the hump come playoff time. I don't think Jimmy G can.

[DaColts85]

1 minute ago, chad72 said:

 

Exactly!!! It is just that the eye tests and a lot of stats for most of us tell a different story in the Mac Jones vs Fields vs Lance cases then the media narrative for Mac Jones being a 49er.

Based on stats Mac Jones is above all. Career stats I’ll give Fields the nod. Lance has a potential high ceiling but eye test and stats he isn’t above either IMO. Not currently. 

[chad72]

1 minute ago, DaColts85 said:

Based on stats Mac Jones is above all. Career stats I’ll give Fields the nod. Lance has a potential high ceiling but eye test and stats he isn’t above either IMO. Not currently. 

 

This is an important one for me that says otherwise. Playing with first round WRs hasn't tested Jones with tight windows as much, IMO. 

 

 

 

[DaColts85]

Regardless of the move up if you are drafting a QB in the top 10 and he is a bust you should lose your job because that’s a huge setback for a team. Not just the 49ers but any team that takes a QB. Shanahan likes to run the West Coast offense and with that having a mobile QB helps so Fields makes more sense to me. But if he wants a pure pocket passer Jones fits the bill. 

[DaColts85]

1 minute ago, chad72 said:

 

This is an important one for me that says otherwise. Playing with first round WRs hasn't tested Jones with tight windows as much, IMO. 

 

 

 

I mean that’s a good stat but I can show multiple others to make Jones look good. Or Lance. Regardless last years stats like I said were in Jones’ benefit. 

[chad72]

3 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

Regardless of the move up if you are drafting a QB in the top 10 and he is a bust you should lose your job because that’s a huge setback for a team. Not just the 49ers but any team that takes a QB. Shanahan likes to run the West Coast offense and with that having a mobile QB helps so Fields makes more sense to me. But if he wants a pure pocket passer Jones fits the bill. 

 

True. Both Fields and Jones have the "Buckeye QBs and Alabama QBs don't do well in the NFL" going against them. But then, hey, you draft the player, not their school history.

[DaColts85]

Just now, chad72 said:

 

Both Fields and Jones have the "Buckeye QBs and Alabama QBs don't do well in the NFL" going against them. But then, hey, you draft the player, not their school history.

And this is my belief. The whole Jones was a Bama QB so he has this and that I think is terrible. 

[chad72]

5 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

And this is my belief. The whole Jones was a Bama QB so he has this and that I think is terrible. 

 

Sometimes, I wish GMs could make an evaluation without names involved.

 

Player A vs Player B - Advanced stats and metrics vs elite competition, supporting cast, X factors, coachability, intelligence, longevity of stats, measurables etc. and then get the name revealed to them as to who player A or player B is after they make their decision in a vacuum.  

[DaColts85]

3 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Sometimes, I wish GMs could make an evaluation without names involved.

 

Player A vs Player B - Advanced stats and metrics vs elite competition, supporting cast, X factors, coachability, intelligence, longevity of stats, measurables etc. and then get the name revealed to them as to who player A or player B is after they make their decision in a vacuum.  

I completely agree with this. It would change people’s outlook for sure. Specially using all the metrics you mentioned. I think what has moved Jones up the board so much was the Senior bowl. He showed how coachable he was and that he can make any throw. Rhule loved him after that week. 

[stitches]

4 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

I think Kyle Shanahan is a good enough play caller that will make both Jones and Fields work for him just as he would with Lance. Ultimately, their decision becomes a make or break because of the draft capital they have given up to go get one that they think will make a difference and not have been available at No.12.

 

No matter who goes to SF will have a good record, the question will be if they can put them over the hump come playoff time. I don't think Jimmy G can.

The whole thing with Shannahan's system is that it simplifies and makes life easier for whoever the QB is. It creates tons and tons of open throws and usually all the QB needs to do is make a simple read on a secondary defender(or dropping LB). That's the reason why he made players like Nick Mullens, Matt Schaubb, CJ Beathard look good in stretches. That's why Kirk Cousins and Jimmy G, both of whom lack playmaking ability have looked like average to above average QBs in that system. But at the same time Shannahan himself chose to move on from Jimmy G. I just have no idea why he would give up on Garropolo and trade 3 1sts +3d in order to get a QB who in one of the better outcome scenarios will be about what Garropolo is now. I think Shannahan wants more and he knows that with his system AND with added playmaking and running threat from a dynamic QB, his offense will be unstoppable.

 

Like I said before... he gave up a 2nd and a 4th for the Jimmy Gs and Kirk Cousins' of the world. Do you know who his team gave up 3 1st round picks + for? Robert Griffin III. And he looked amazing with Shannahan before he got hit by injuries.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

I don't know what to think. Purely scheme-wise and experience with simialar offense-wise IMO Lance makes the most sense... but I can see Shannahan liking Fields in that same role too. 

 

That's the weirdest of smokescreen/smoke signals I've seen recently in the draft. 

 

Also, for whatever it's worth I don't trust Lombardi.

 

In essence... right now I don't trust many. I don't think anyone has a source. Just a thought exercise - who do you think knows right now? Do you think the whole coaching staff, scouts, FO people on 49ers know? I don't think so. IMO the circle of people in the know right now is extremely limited. Shannahan, Lynch and Jed York maybe? 

 

IMO all those "sources" are not people in the know. It all started with reports from Jeremiah and Schefter about OTHER TEAMS believing it was Mac Jones. And it snowballed from there. I honestly don't think anyone has a source with actual information. IMO it's all conjecture based on faulty assumptions.

 

It's so weird. Every single respected analysts pretty much has the opinion - I wouldn't pick Jones over Fields/Lance, but this seems to be the rumor. This makes no sense to me. I have seen one(!!!) analyst with any credibility - Simms, who likes Jones over Fields/Lance and would actually get behind such a move. Everybody else is on the opposite side... why do they believe it then? No idea. 

 

I've been following several mock drafts with insiders for the teams making the picks for the respective teams. The highest Jones was picked in any of them was to the Bears at 20. Noone wants Jones. But we are hearing he's going no. 3. Makes no sense.

 

I guess, we will see in 10 days time or thereabout.

 

Who thought Trubisky was the best QB in the 2017 draft? He went #2, ahead of Mahomes and Watson (not to mention Jamal Adams, Marlon Humphrey, and TJ Watt). And they moved up to get him.

 

You might be right that it's just a bunch of conjecture that snowballed to the point that it's now being taken as fact. But, Schefter said these words: "It will be Mac Jones." He's since kind of walked that back, leaving room for something else to happen. So who knows?

 

End of the day, the Niners might have played everyone and intend to take someone else. Maybe they did have Jones penciled in, but weren't set on it and have now reached a different conclusion. But I don't think this idea came from pure speculation on the part of uninformed people. It's still weird that, if they had Mac Jones as their guy, they felt the need to move up for him. 

 

Edit: I'm also going to stop acting like the Niners don't know what they're doing. If we assume that they have NOT decided on Jones, they are handling their evaluation masterfully, including making specific suggestions to these QBs on what they should do before and during their pro days, and I think they're going to have more than enough information to make up for the weird 2020 college season. That includes on Trey Lance, who only played one game last year.

[Superman]

17 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Sometimes, I wish GMs could make an evaluation without names involved.

 

Player A vs Player B - Advanced stats and metrics vs elite competition, supporting cast, X factors, coachability, intelligence, longevity of stats, measurables etc. and then get the name revealed to them as to who player A or player B is after they make their decision in a vacuum.  

 

 

Draft season is crazy, and I think it affects our perception of how teams evaluate players. They start with the tape, they stick to the tape, and they finish with the tape. That definitely will involve some bias. On the latest "With the Next Pick," Ed Dodds says 'I need a break before we watch a West Coast player...' Scouts and staff will have preconceptions that are hard to overcome. 

 

But I don't think any GM or high ranking personnel staff are making decisions primarily on the basis of pre-generated reports. They probably do make decisions influenced by their pre-established biases. But I don't think 'he played at Bama' is as big of a deal as people think.

[chad72]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

 

Draft season is crazy, and I think it affects our perception of how teams evaluate players. They start with the tape, they stick to the tape, and they finish with the tape. That definitely will involve some bias. On the latest "With the Next Pick," Ed Dodds says 'I need a break before we watch a West Coast player...' Scouts and staff will have preconceptions that are hard to overcome. 

 

But I don't think any GM or high ranking personnel staff are making decisions primarily on the basis of pre-generated reports. They probably do make decisions influenced by their pre-established biases. But I don't think 'he played at Bama' is as big of a deal as people think.

 

Like the "QBs with red hair don't succeed in the NFL" thing that came out when Andy Dalton was drafted. 

[Superman]

1 minute ago, chad72 said:

 

Like the "QBs with red hair don't succeed in the NFL" thing that came out when Andy Dalton was drafted. 

 

I can't think of a better example.

[stitches]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Who thought Trubisky was the best QB in the 2017 draft? He went #2, ahead of Mahomes and Watson (not to mention Jamal Adams, Marlon Humphrey, and TJ Watt). And they moved up to get him.

 

You might be right that it's just a bunch of conjecture that snowballed to the point that it's now being taken as fact. But, Schefter said these words: "It will be Mac Jones." He's since kind of walked that back, leaving room for something else to happen. So who knows?

 

End of the day, the Niners might have played everyone and intend to take someone else. Maybe they did have Jones penciled in, but weren't set on it and have now reached a different conclusion. But I don't think this idea came from pure speculation on the part of uninformed people. It's still weird that, if they had Mac Jones as their guy, they felt the need to move up for him. 

That's the thing... even if they absolutely loved Mac Jones. NOONE else seems to love him. Why give up so much to do that trade? If you are worried for the Lions or Panthers... just do the trade that Miami did to no. 6 to secure him. 

 

Also, about Schefter. I want you to go back and look at how he's framing it. He's not presenting it as a sourced information. This is NOT a report from Schefter. 

 

Here's Schefter from April 6th:

 

"I think... I believe... I believe"... there is no mention of sourced information anywhere.

 

Here's Schefter last year at about the same time:

https://247sports.com/Article/Adam-Schefter-NFL-Draft-2020-no-surprise-Justin-Herbert-ahead-of-Tua-Tagovailoa-Alabama-Crimson-Tide-Oregon-Ducks--146037580/

 

He thought Miami was going to pick Justin Herbert 2 weeks before the draft. Unless those people have a source with direct information ... I will just choose to not believe them. IMO about a day or two before the draft there is likely to be a true leak(like the Baker Mayfield leak) when the owners get involved in final approvement of the pick and they decide to tell their relatives and someone leaks it. Until then, IMO unless explicitly stated by a reliable reporter(Schefter would count as one... just... right now he's conjecturing, not sourcing his guesses), I would choose to believe they know nothing and are just guessing. 

[stitches]

20 hours ago, danlhart87 said:

Jones gets far too much hate here. He isn't gonna blow teams away but it is possible to have success from the pocket. 

Just... take a step back and look what you are describing. "Not gonna blow teams away" ... "but it is possible to have success from the pocket". Just around the Senior Bowl I started warming up to Mac Jones and I thought he was the best QB at the Senior Bowl by some margin. I like him. I think he can be a Jimmy G/Kirk Cousins type in the right system. But you don't pay 3 first round picks + for that. You don't blow up your draft for 3 years in the future for "not gonna blow teams away" QB. You do that for a QB who you think has the chance to be special. I don't see Mac Jones in that light. 

 

 

[Superman]

3 minutes ago, stitches said:

That's the thing... even if they absolutely loved Mac Jones. NOONE else seems to love him. Why give up so much to do that trade? If you are worried for the Lions or Panthers... just do the trade that Miami did to no. 6 to secure him. 

 

Also, about Schefter. I want you to go back and look at how he's framing it. He's not presenting it as a sourced information. This is NOT a report from Schefter. 

 

Here's Schefter from April 6th:

 

"I think... I believe... I believe"... there is no mention of sourced information anywhere.

 

Here's Schefter last year at about the same time:

https://247sports.com/Article/Adam-Schefter-NFL-Draft-2020-no-surprise-Justin-Herbert-ahead-of-Tua-Tagovailoa-Alabama-Crimson-Tide-Oregon-Ducks--146037580/

 

He thought Miami was going to pick Justin Herbert 2 weeks before the draft. Unless those people have a source with direct information ... I will just choose to not believe them. IMO about a day or two before the draft there is likely to be a true leak(like the Baker Mayfield leak) when the owners get involved in final approvement of the pick and they decide to tell their relatives and someone leaks it. Until then, IMO unless explicitly stated by a reliable reporter(Schefter would count as one... just... right now he's conjecturing, not sourcing his guesses), I would choose to believe they know nothing and are just guessing. 

 

Listen to this clip, which starts a few seconds before the one you shared.

 

 

I don't remember him sounding as definitive about Herbert/Tua last season. He did say they'd both go high, and ultimately, they did. Tua to Miami was always the favorite pick, but there were some questions. His comment about Mac Jones sounds different to me.

 

He could be wrong, and again he kind of backed down a few days later. But "it will be Mac Jones" was a definitive sounding statement that he made, and then he went on to state some scenarios that could happen. It was still pretty strong sounding.

[stitches]

9 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Listen to this clip, which starts a few seconds before the one you shared.

 

 

I don't remember him sounding as definitive about Herbert/Tua last season. He did say they'd both go high, and ultimately, they did. Tua to Miami was always the favorite pick, but there were some questions. His comment about Mac Jones sounds different to me.

 

He could be wrong, and again he kind of backed down a few days later. But "it will be Mac Jones" was a definitive sounding statement that he made, and then he went on to state some scenarios that could happen. It was still pretty strong sounding.

Yes it sounded very definitive. BUT... he's still not presenting it as sourced information. There is still a lot of "I believe" and none of "Sources are telling me" . This is the thing. I absolutely allow him to have his opinions and to make conjectures based on what he's hearing around the league. I still don't believe it until he says it's source with direct knowledge that's telling him this. Maybe I get proven wrong in 10 days... who knows...  

 

This IMO is a problem with those huge insiders who I think have great sources and great success when actually reporting news - the problem of people parsing their opinions as news. I don't fault people because they are used to hearing news from those reporters, but when they are put in a position where they don't have direct info, I would be doubly careful to make sure people know they are presenting an opinion rather than inside information. 

 

I don't think it serves Schefter or anyone well to present this strong of an opinion as certainty and news. What happens now if 49ers pick someone else? Does Schefter lose credibility? Or does he just weasel out of it by saying - well things changed in those 2 weeks? 

[Superman]

18 minutes ago, stitches said:

Yes it sounded very definitive. BUT... he's still not presenting it as sourced information. There is still a lot of "I believe" and none of "Sources are telling me" . This is the thing. I absolutely allow him to have his opinions and to make conjectures based on what he's hearing around the league. I still don't believe it until he says it's source with direct knowledge that's telling him this. Maybe I get proven wrong in 10 days... who knows...  

 

The thing about it is that Schefter doesn't just make stuff up. He might be wrong, he might have made a premature declaration, whatever, but it wasn't just his own speculation with no basis in reality. Especially not the way he said it.

 

If he said this about Justin Fields, we'd barely bat an eye. It's because we're convinced it's a mistake that there's so much trouble accepting it.

[stitches]

5 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

The thing about it is that Schefter doesn't just make stuff up. He might be wrong, he might have made a premature declaration, whatever, but it wasn't just his own speculation with no basis in reality. Especially not the way he said it.

 

If he said this about Justin Fields, we'd barely bat an eye. It's because we're convinced it's a mistake that there's so much trouble accepting it.

So how would we know? If he was just speaking freely (and carelessly) about his informed opinion? Or was it a sourced information? I guess if they pick Mac Jones I would believe it was actually sourced information... but what happens if it's someone else? Would you think he was just presenting an opinion? Or would you think he presented sourced information and things just changed in the last 2-3 weeks? Would the 49ers trade 3 firsts + 3d not knowing who they are picking and changed their mind in the meantime... I don't believe that. I think they knew exactly who they were trading up for. 

[chad72]

Ultimately, I don't want to see Justin Fields as a Patriot, that is all I care.  

[Superman]

On 4/19/2021 at 9:55 AM, stitches said:

So how would we know? If he was just speaking freely (and carelessly) about his informed opinion? Or was it a sourced information? I guess if they pick Mac Jones I would believe it was actually sourced information... but what happens if it's someone else? Would you think he was just presenting an opinion? Or would you think he presented sourced information and things just changed in the last 2-3 weeks? Would the 49ers trade 3 firsts + 3d not knowing who they are picking and changed their mind in the meantime... I don't believe that. I think they knew exactly who they were trading up for. 

 

I think Schefter does a reasonably good job of presenting his opinions as just opinion, and he presents rumors and uncertain information accordingly as well. Lots of 'I think,' 'I'm hearing,' 'I've been told,' 'the feeling is,' etc... 

 

Here, he said: "It will be Mac Jones." Came across different to me. Then he kind of couched it a few days later, making me think maybe there was room for things to change, he didn't mean for it to sound as definitive as it did, whatever.

 

I think there was plenty of room for things to change. The Justin Fields epilepsy news is one thing; whether teams knew about that before the last few days is unknown, but they know now. If the Niners were on the fence prior to having that information, that could push their decision in one direction or the other.

 

Also, it's very possible that they moved up knowing they'd have their pick of whatever three QBs are still there at #2. Maybe they already knew the Jets were going with Wilson, but either way, going up to #3 gave them the peace of mind to know that they could get whichever guy they like out of the Fields, Lance and Jones. Maybe they had a favorite already, but I doubt they had their minds made up one way or the other. They just knew they wanted a QB, and #3 was as high as they could get.

[Superman]

Also, just because I'm starting to feel some kind of way about this, Mac Jones is getting short changed these days. He's a really good prospect, and people are treating him like he's an unathletic bum with no arm.

 

Blake Bortles went #3 in 2014. Sam Darnold went #3, and Josh Rosen went #10 in 2018. None of them were unable to succeed due to athletic shortcomings. Mac Jones tested just as good, if not better, than all of them. (Bortles was actually pretty good as a scrambler, despite his mediocre testing.) I already used the Jared Goff comparison; he went #1 in 2016, and went to the SB in 2018. Mac Jones tested as good as Goff.

 

He doesn't have super speed or quickness, but he's not stuck in mud. He moves well enough to stay alive in the pocket, and he has enough movement ability to scramble when needed. He doesn't have a cannon of an arm, but his arm is not deficient. He's very good from the pocket, he processes well, not a one-read thrower, very accurate, and tough. 

 

If Bortles, Darnold and Goff could go top five in the last 7 years, so can Mac Jones. Of course, he needs to be better than them to live up to that draft status, but again, their issues weren't about lacking athleticism. 

 

Just saying, again, the anti-Mac stuff is getting a little overboard. I like Fields and Lance better, but Mac Jones being desirable isn't entirely outrageous.

[stitches]

19 minutes ago, Superman said:

Also, just because I'm starting to feel some kind of way about this, Mac Jones is getting short changed these days. He's a really good prospect, and people are treating him like he's an unathletic bum with no arm.

 

Blake Bortles went #3 in 2014. Sam Darnold went #3, and Josh Rosen went #10 in 2018. None of them were unable to succeed due to athletic shortcomings. Mac Jones tested just as good, if not better, than all of them. (Bortles was actually pretty good as a scrambler, despite his mediocre testing.) I already used the Jared Goff comparison; he went #1 in 2016, and went to the SB in 2018. Mac Jones tested as good as Goff.

 

He doesn't have super speed or quickness, but he's not stuck in mud. He moves well enough to stay alive in the pocket, and he has enough movement ability to scramble when needed. He doesn't have a cannon of an arm, but his arm is not deficient. He's very good from the pocket, he processes well, not a one-read thrower, very accurate, and tough. 

 

I don't care how he tested (especially this year, when all those pro-day tests are under serious question)... I care how he plays and how he looks on tape. Players that didn't test off-the-charts are some of the best playmakers in football - Mahomes ran 4.82 with 30 inch vertical. I'd take him over any of the best athletes in the league making plays on the move. With that said... I don't see Mac Jones in similar light even though they tested very similarly. I don't think he's stuck in mud in the pocket. But I do not think he has enough mobility to scramble when needed. He will be one of the worst scrambling starting QBs in the league IMO. I think him scrambling will be extremely rare in the league. I just don't think he has the mobility and physical talent to do it while launching the ball downfield. 

 

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If Bortles, Darnold and Goff could go top five in the last 7 years, so can Mac Jones. Of course, he needs to be better than them to live up to that draft status, but again, their issues weren't about lacking athleticism. 

 

Just saying, again, the anti-Mac stuff is getting a little overboard. I like Fields and Lance better, but Mac Jones being desirable isn't entirely outrageous.

I like him too. But there are levels to this thing. I like him as a late first-second round QB. I think he can be a good productive QB in the right system(Shannahan system for example). I don't like him enough to give up 3 1st round picks + 3d for him, though. This is my whole contention here. He's just not THAT type of player IMO. Lance and Fields are. 

[Superman]

34 minutes ago, stitches said:

I don't care how he tested (especially this year, when all those pro-day tests are under serious question)... I care how he plays and how he looks on tape. Players that didn't test off-the-charts are some of the best playmakers in football - Mahomes ran 4.82 with 30 inch vertical. I'd take him over any of the best athletes in the league making plays on the move. With that said... I don't see Mac Jones in similar light even though they tested very similarly. I don't think he's stuck in mud in the pocket. But I do not think he has enough mobility to scramble when needed. He will be one of the worst scrambling starting QBs in the league IMO. I think him scrambling will be extremely rare in the league. I just don't think he has the mobility and physical talent to do it while launching the ball downfield. 

 

I like him too. But there are levels to this thing. I like him as a late first-second round QB. I think he can be a good productive QB in the right system(Shannahan system for example). I don't like him enough to give up 3 1st round picks + 3d for him, though. This is my whole contention here. He's just not THAT type of player IMO. Lance and Fields are. 

 

I don't get this. First, if you're skeptical of the pro day numbers, then just throw out all of this year's testing. I think that's unreasonable. If you want to bump him up a tenth of a second, that still puts him in the same range as those other guys.

 

Second, watching him play, he has more than adequate movement ability. This has become a meme. He's not Fields or Lance. But even in today's NFL, you don't have to be freakishly athletic to play QB at a high level. He's athletic enough. Another one. 

 

We agree, if I identified Jones as "my guy" in this draft, I wouldn't be moving up to #3 for him. But he's a different kind of prospect than Lance and Fields, and as much as there is to like about those guys, they have question marks of their own. And if they were to struggle in the NFL, it wouldn't be the first time that a tools-y athletic QB prospect fell short of expectations. But I'm not taking issue with Lance or Fields, at all. They should be ranked high this year.

 

Just pointing out, again, that some of the Mac Jones coverage is unfair. He's being written off as an unathletic, physical dud, and that's nonsense. He has similar or better physical ability as several other guys who have gone top five in recent seasons. Dwayne Haskins and Teddy Bridgewater were physically uninspiring. Mac Jones is a good enough athlete to play NFL QB.

 

It's fair to say he'll be overdrafted if he goes in the top ten. I'm disagreeing with the idea that he's not gifted enough to play well. 

[stitches]

16 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't get this. First, if you're skeptical of the pro day numbers, then just throw out all of this year's testing. I think that's unreasonable. If you want to bump him up a tenth of a second, that still puts him in the same range as those other guys.

I don't completely write them off, but I'm highly skeptical of them, especially when they don't match the tape. And with Jones they don't. In my opinion. 

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Second, watching him play, he has more than adequate movement ability. This has become a meme. He's not Fields or Lance. But even in today's NFL, you don't have to be freakishly athletic to play QB at a high level. He's athletic enough. Another one. 

You can find the odd play here and there by pretty much any QB, where makes a play with his feet. Even the least athletic QBs in the league have some base level of athleticism to even reach that level and in perfect of circumstances, when the defense takes a bad angle or whiffs on a tackle you can look mobile. This is not the norm for Jones. Those types of plays are the exception when the pocket collapses. 

 

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We agree, if I identified Jones as "my guy" in this draft, I wouldn't be moving up to #3 for him. But he's a different kind of prospect than Lance and Fields, and as much as there is to like about those guys, they have question marks of their own. And if they were to struggle in the NFL, it wouldn't be the first time that a tools-y athletic QB prospect fell short of expectations. But I'm not taking issue with Lance or Fields, at all. They should be ranked high this year.

Agree. Being an athletic QB doesn't guarantee success and being non-athletic doesn't doom you. 

 

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Just pointing out, again, that some of the Mac Jones coverage is unfair. He's being written off as an unathletic, physical dud, and that's nonsense. He has similar or better physical ability as several other guys who have gone top five in recent seasons. Dwayne Haskins and Teddy Bridgewater were physically uninspiring. Mac Jones is a good enough athlete to play NFL QB.

He's good enough athlete to play NFL QB. He's not good enough athlete to make plays out of structure and on the move consistently. Which doesn't mean he won't be a good QB... but it means he won't make those types of plays if/when needed. 

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It's fair to say he'll be overdrafted if he goes in the top ten. I'm disagreeing with the idea that he's not gifted enough to play well. 

I don't think we disagree on that. I think he's gifted enough to play well... I don't think he's athletically gifted to be an off-structure playmaker with any sort of consistency in the league. 

[Superman]

17 hours ago, stitches said:

I don't completely write them off, but I'm highly skeptical of them, especially when they don't match the tape. And with Jones they don't. In my opinion. 

You can find the odd play here and there by pretty much any QB, where makes a play with his feet. Even the least athletic QBs in the league have some base level of athleticism to even reach that level and in perfect of circumstances, when the defense takes a bad angle or whiffs on a tackle you can look mobile. This is not the norm for Jones. Those types of plays are the exception when the pocket collapses. 

 

Agree. Being an athletic QB doesn't guarantee success and being non-athletic doesn't doom you. 

 

He's good enough athlete to play NFL QB. He's not good enough athlete to make plays out of structure and on the move consistently. Which doesn't mean he won't be a good QB... but it means he won't make those types of plays if/when needed. 

I don't think we disagree on that. I think he's gifted enough to play well... I don't think he's athletically gifted to be an off-structure playmaker with any sort of consistency in the league. 

 

We disagree on how well he'll do as an off structure playmaker, but probably not by much. It's not his biggest strength, but he does have some ability in that regard.

 

What I really disagree with is the way he's talked about. It's not just 'he isn't as athletic as the other four guys going in the first round.' It's turned into 'he's not athletic at all.' Rather than saying he's a good prospect who has some high level traits, it's starting to sound like he just can't play and shouldn't be drafted at all, let alone in the first round.

 

It might just be the silliness of draft coverage getting to me. 

[John Hammonds]

@Superman I think your earlier comparison is probably the most appropriate.  If Mac Jones is drafted at #3, he will be the Mitch Trubisky of the 2021 draft.  A QB that has no business being drafted in the top 5 picks, but somebody traded up to take him anyway.  I sure hope John Lynch doesn't eventually lose his job over this.  (If it happens)

[Superman]

2 hours ago, John Hammonds said:

@Superman I think your earlier comparison is probably the most appropriate.  If Mac Jones is drafted at #3, he will be the Mitch Trubisky of the 2021 draft.  A QB that has no business being drafted in the top 5 picks, but somebody traded up to take him anyway.  I sure hope John Lynch doesn't eventually lose his job over this.  (If it happens)

 

Five of these QBs are going high in this draft, in the top 10 I think. Two of them are likely going to be busts, one will be meh, and two will be good. So there's at least a 60% chance that any of them fail to meet expectations. That's always the case with QBs that go high in the draft.

 

However, Jones' profile doesn't suggest that he'll have a problem performing in the NFL. Trubisky was inaccurate, had inconsistent mechanics, wasn't great from the pocket, struggled pre/post snap. None of that is true of Jones.