How you feel about Ballards approach to FA

[Myles]

3 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

Yeah they are and just like the Buccaneers they are also spread out not all in one Free agency, slowly adding a few FA when it makes sense to fill holes but focusing on truly building the team through the draft.  you can't trap yourself in the thinking that more always mean better, because as we all know teams that do a lot of FA signings historically have a losing record. 

I'm not saying you are wrong, I just don't know if that's true.   I know teams that do allot of FA signings often come up short of expectations.  

[Zoltan]

3 minutes ago, Myles said:

I'm not saying you are wrong, I just don't know if that's true.   I know teams that do allot of FA signings often come up short of expectations.  

I'll look for it but someone awhile back had a stat to back that phrase up, but you are right to question it without evidence/proof.

[ClaytonColt]

9 minutes ago, Myles said:

I'm not saying you are wrong, I just don't know if that's true.   I know teams that do allot of FA signings often come up short of expectations.  

Causation or correlation though? 

 

Bad teams will have the most salary cap in general so the free agents that chase the $ will likely tie themselves to those teams.

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

8 hours ago, shasta519 said:

I chose "Other." Mostly because it's not exclusive to FA...but also because disagreeing with Ballard’s FA/offseason approach does not equate to being some “angry” fan. You can definitely disagree without being angry. Being "angry" or upset implies that you are irrational.

 

Ballard likes the draft. So does every other NFL team. They all want to hit on draft picks or use them as capital to hit on other players. And these discussions always end up with people equating spending cap space to "sacrificing the future." The way teams manipulate the cap shows how much of a sacrifice there truly is (or isn't shall I say). Besides, you can't really sacrifice what you don't use anyways.

 

And due to the CBA structure with rookie deals (and just the general injury risk of football), the NFL actually now revolves around competitive windows. If you think your team has SB potential (like Reich has said), then you are just doing yourself a disservice by being prudent.

 

If you truly want to plan for long-term success in the future...either tank a season to get a top pick...or pony up draft capital to move up...and get a young QB in the draft and pray he’s elite. That’s really the only way you can actually plan for success in the future. Everything else is about maximizing competitive windows...rookie deals, player's primes, etc.

 

Also, we are still waiting for the proof that this way is the "right way." Going to take a lot more than winning (11) games against the weakest schedule in the NFL...and a WC weekend loss. They have Wentz now...so this season should serve as proof one way or the other.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

well said, great post, 

[BlueShoe]

10 hours ago, DEFENSE said:

you hit it spot on, ballards method is just spinning tires, going no where to win a superbowl or even our division, his dollar general method has turned us into just an average team, with a roster filled with just average talent and few playmakers and game changers

And.... A big miss on that one. 

 

 

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

7 hours ago, richard pallo said:

The trade for Wentz signaled to me that we are still trying to win it all now.  Just like last year when we signed an aging Rivers and traded for Buckner.  We passed on moving up for a QB with pick 13 and we did it again by trading for Wentz and keeping pick 21.  This is not a wait and see year to see how Wentz performs.  They feel Reich can get Wentz back to his old self immediately.  Just like last year with Rivers.  His interceptions plummeted.  It's amazing what a QB can do with a great OL and a few playmakers.  Even an old QB.  GM's and HC's don't have 10 year contracts to win a SB. There is only one I know of and that's getting a little precarious now.  Ballard has done a good job holding the key components from last years team to this years team.  Although Houston still sits out there.  With Wentz he should even be more anxious to add a couple of key missing pieces.  He was his old self in not spending big in FA.  So that leaves the draft and trades.  He could still surprise us with a trade of our 1st or 2nd pick for a ER for example like he did with Buckner last year.  And of course Ertz is still waiting in the wings.  I am of the belief that Ballard has a few more moves to make that might surprise us.  I don't think he is going to just count on the draft to save the day and the season.  Wentz can't be the only significant move.  Not after what he did last year with the Buckner trade.  I think there is more to come.  JMO

 

i sure hope so

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

i cant believe how many forum members are happy with ballards 32 and 32 record since he took over, now in year 5 of his dollar general method. just walking in place, going no where

[danlhart87]

1 minute ago, DEFENSE said:

i cant believe how many forum members are happy with ballards 32 and 32 record since he took over, now in year 5 of his dollar general method. just walking in place, going no where

I'm perfectly fine with Ballard's approach to build through draft. 

 

Hendrickson had 1 great year and just got 15m for example (others were overpaid too)

 

Happens every year players have elite contract years and are overpaid tremendously.

[Moosejawcolt]

9 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I'd just like to point out that the Bucs hadn't even made the playoffs before 2020 under Licht's watch. Six years, five losing seasons, 14 games under .500. He drafted Noah Spence and Justin Evans in the 2nd (for all the 'Ballard misses 2nd rounders' folks), Roberto Aguayo in the 3rd (yes, a kicker). He has his hits, for sure, but before 2020, he was a mediocre GM with a mediocre record, over six seasons. And that's after drafting a would-be franchise QB.

 

Then Tom Brady comes to town, they win the SB, and now Jason Licht is the model GM in everyone's eyes, and we're nitpicking Chris Ballard because the Colts have only won one playoff game in four seasons.

One could argue that's all the Bush were missing was a franchise qb. The talent was there. They just needed a qb to being it all together.

[Four2itus]

This bulletin just in............

 

Dee....dee...dee....de,de,......dee....dee....

 

Every year in the NFL their are 31 failures at GM.....if you let SB wins be your filter.

 

If, however, you let improvement in development, average age of players on the roster, and future salary ramifications be your filter, you might just enjoy what is happening. Of course, never stand in the line of sight between a disappointed fan, and their rhetoric. 

[JediXMan]

My biggest fear is if we don’t upgrade edge rush properly,  we’ll be at the bottom 10 in sacks, pressure and QB hits.

[JoeThornburg]

Other. My opinion is mixed. On one hand, the guys he did resign (Rhodes, Hilton) made sense at the price he got them for and they are resident to the system. Plus, the depth signings he made were very well thought out. Depth signings are more important than people may realize. If you have a talented player that can be serviceable at more than one position in a back up role that is a win for building a solid roster. The Davis deal is a perfect example of that, although most seem to think that means Hooker's departure is a foregone conclusion. He's also an extremely gifted athlete.

 

On the other hand, notwithstanding the looming extensions for some other key players, I'm quite surprised he didn't try to push his advantage a little more this year since he simply had more options on the table than most of the league in free agency. Feels like a lost opportunity that he didn't do anything to address needs in terms of the pass rush with his 1st round pick at #21 and no third rounder to trade after the Wentz deal. Not that Buckner and Wentz were insignificant or passive/dismissive additions by any means, but this is the NFL. If you have an advantage, use it. Pull the trigger when the opportunity is there rather than hold off until tomorrow when the window is closed.

[HectorRoberts]

I’m happy with our current situation I would like to see a villianuva signing as insurance but besides that I’m pretty content with the course we’re on

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

 

 

too slow on the trigger and too afraid to take a risk spells average talent

[Moosejawcolt]

2 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

One could argue that's all the Bush were missing was a franchise qb. The talent was there. They just needed a qb to being it all together.

God, I really have to spell check before completing a thought lol.

[Superman]

2 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

One could argue that's all the Bush were missing was a franchise qb. The talent was there. They just needed a qb to being it all together.

 

One could make that argument. They'd be wrong, IMO. The Bucs added several contributing players in 2020, not just Brady. It was also Bruce Arians' second season, so that's a major contributing factor beyond Licht's team building. They weren't getting incrementally better in previous seasons, they were stagnant. And they drafted a would-be franchise QB who didn't work out. Licht did not intend to have a six year build, which is why the QB and the coach were replaced.

 

And let's say, for argument's sake, that this angle is legitimate. That would suggest that the ideal team building approach, as exemplified by the Bucs, is a seven year process. It would mean you should not expect ANY success for the first six years, and maybe you'll get a pay off after that. If that's the case, Ballard's Colts are far ahead of that pace, are they not?

 

The Bucs are an(other) example that there's nothing wrong with adding players in FA. They're also an(other) example that just being active in FA isn't enough to build a winning team (Suh, JPP, Curry, etc.) Attempting to make anything more of their approach is, IMO, a stretch.

 

One last thing on Ballard: He is more conservative than most, for better or worse. This frustrated me about Polian, who eventually just disregarded FA altogether (especially after the Corey Simon ordeal). So far, Ballard is not that conservative, but he is more restrictive in his process and approach. Still, he traded a first for Buckner, and paid him $84m, and he paid Rivers $25m; without those two moves, do the Colts have a winning season in 2020? Not to mention the auxiliary additions that were a great value for the team, like Rhodes, Burton, etc.

 

And this season, he traded TWO picks for Wentz, along with his $25m/year. This move was unprecedented for Ballard, on two counts. 1) It's the only transaction in which Ballard has traded away two picks, 2) It's the only transaction in which Ballard has traded away a future pick. (Correct me if I'm wrong on either count.) 

 

My point on Ballard is that he's not so conservative that he won't take a big swing or two when he sees the opportunity to do so, as long as he thinks it's right. I am not arguing that he is infallible, or that no one should ever disagree with him. Time will tell how good of a GM he is. I'm just pointing out, again, that he's obviously a principled and disciplined decision maker, so maybe we collectively can stop expecting him to make huge splash moves.

[Les Poulains]

I generally think Ballard's coherent, but this offseason what we've done makes a lot less sense. Lots of guys that signed this summer will look cheap in the future because of the lower cap and we had two important positions of need we've not yet adequately filled, which is what you're supposed to use FA for.

 

That means it's way more likely we have to pigeonhole ourselves into drafting for need which is meant to be the exact opposite of what he would want to do. So thus far imo, it's not been super logical. 

[Myles]

11 hours ago, DEFENSE said:

i cant believe how many forum members are happy with ballards 32 and 32 record since he took over, now in year 5 of his dollar general method. just walking in place, going no where

You are not happy with a 32 and 32 record from a team that was void of talent at most positions and had almost no depth when Ballard started.   Also an injured QB who decided to quit the game.

I'm pretty thrilled.   The future looks bright.  

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

8 hours ago, Les Poulains said:

I generally think Ballard's coherent, but this offseason what we've done makes a lot less sense. Lots of guys that signed this summer will look cheap in the future because of the lower cap and we had two important positions of need we've not yet adequately filled, which is what you're supposed to use FA for.

 

That means it's way more likely we have to pigeonhole ourselves into drafting for need which is meant to be the exact opposite of what he would want to do. So thus far imo, it's not been super logical. 

missed  a chance to improve the roster, seems afraid to pull the trigger

[BigO]

1 hour ago, Myles said:

You are not happy with a 32 and 32 record from a team that was void of talent at most positions and had almost no depth when Ballard started.   Also an injured QB who decided to quit the game.

I'm pretty thrilled.   The future looks bright.  

Man I would like to work for you if you are happy with a .500 record!

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

if ballard is going to rely on the draft he needs to draft better, his 2019 draft was a disaster, how did he not take aj brown?

[Myles]

19 minutes ago, DEFENSE said:

if ballard is going to rely on the draft he needs to draft better, his 2019 draft was a disaster, how did he not take aj brown?

If you are going to cherry-pick, you can make any GM look bad.

[Myles]

25 minutes ago, BigO said:

Man I would like to work for you if you are happy with a .500 record!

It has to do with circumstances.  Ballard was given a bad set of circumstances.

 

If I purchased Blockbuster and made it into a profitable company, even though  it wasn't a top video outlet, I'd consider myself having done a good job.  Ballard inherited Blockbuster and turned it into the 11th best in the industry.  Just going off the Colts draft position.   

[ClaytonColt]

13 hours ago, danlhart87 said:

I'm perfectly fine with Ballard's approach to build through draft. 

 

Hendrickson had 1 great year and just got 15m for example (others were overpaid too)

 

Happens every year players have elite contract years and are overpaid tremendously.

It's a fair point but what about the "draft and retain" similarities.

 

Hendrickson getting $15m a year or Grover getting $10. The ridiculousness is pretty close.

[Dingus McGirt]

1 hour ago, DEFENSE said:

missed  a chance to improve the roster, seems afraid to pull the trigger

We get it.  You don't like CB.  Please put your little drum away now.

[BlackTiger]

On 4/6/2021 at 1:37 PM, Myles said:

I don't think it looks worse.  Not all that improved though.   The RB position is as solid as you can get.   The WR position is solid.   Depth has been addressed on the O-line and D-lines.   Rhodes is back at CB and safety depth/starter has been added.   The QB position has been addressed.  

We lost AC and Houston and have the same RB and WRs as last year

 

I was higher on Phil last year than I am on Wentz now.  Tbh I am skeptical of Carson 

[Myles]

9 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

We lost AC and Houston and have the same RB and WRs as last year

 

I was higher on Phil last year than I am on Wentz now.  Tbh I am skeptical of Carson 

Not really the "same" RB's.   Taylor was new and raw early last year.   Of course Mack missed the season last year.  I think the RB's are incredibly solid.  

Wr's are the same except Pittman will be better.  I'm also excited to have Campbell back.   

 

As far as Wentz, I'll copy what I posted in another thread.

 

I think Wentz, in the next 5 years, will be right about at his career numbers in this offense.  This include his horrible season last year.

 

26 TD's

11 INT's

63% completions

4000 yards

250 yards rushing

 

I will take that. 

 

Reich made Rivers numbers improve.

Completion % - From 66% to 68%

TD and INT - From 23/20 to 24/11

Rating - From 88.5 to 97.0

Record - From 5-11 to 11-5

[Dogg63]

1 hour ago, BlackTiger said:

I was higher on Phil last year than I am on Wentz now.  Tbh I am skeptical of Carson 

yep same here, wentz is a real crap shoot imo

[Four2itus]

3 hours ago, Dingus McGirt said:

We get it.  You don't like CB.  Please put your little drum away now.

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

do any of the elite talent really want to play for the dollar general gm?

[shasta519]

4 hours ago, ClaytonColt said:

It's a fair point but what about the "draft and retain" similarities.

 

Hendrickson getting $15m a year or Grover getting $10. The ridiculousness is pretty close.

 

If Ballard had signed Hendrickson for $15M or Lawson or whomever...it would be regarded as a great deal, if not a steal. There would be articles on Stampede Blue about that player is just tapping into some elite All-Pro upside.

 

 

 

 

[BlackTiger]

1 hour ago, Myles said:

Not really the "same" RB's.   Taylor was new and raw early last year.   Of course Mack missed the season last year.  I think the RB's are incredibly solid.  

Wr's are the same except Pittman will be better.  I'm also excited to have Campbell back.   

 

As far as Wentz, I'll copy what I posted in another thread.

 

I think Wentz, in the next 5 years, will be right about at his career numbers in this offense.  This include his horrible season last year.

 

26 TD's

11 INT's

63% completions

4000 yards

250 yards rushing

 

I will take that. 

 

Reich made Rivers numbers improve.

Completion % - From 66% to 68%

TD and INT - From 23/20 to 24/11

Rating - From 88.5 to 97.0

Record - From 5-11 to 11-5

You are assuming a lot of people will be better than they were last year.  I think we down graded at three most important spots, qb, lt and De

 

Wentz especially needs to make a big leap.  His career numbers look a lot better than he was on the field last year

 

 

[Myles]

35 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

You are assuming a lot of people will be better than they were last year.  I think we down graded at three most important spots, qb, lt and De

 

Wentz especially needs to make a big leap.  His career numbers look a lot better than he was on the field last year

 

 

You must admit that the Eagles were a cluster-F@#$ team last season.   

I actually think we up graded at QB.   Wentz is mobile and can throw the deep ball.

 

Of course I think Pittman, Campbell, Taylor and Mach will be better this year.   You don't?

[Nickster]

11 minutes ago, Myles said:

You must admit that the Eagles were a cluster-F@#$ team last season.   

I actually think we up graded at QB.   Wentz is mobile and can throw the deep ball.

 

Of course I think Pittman, Campbell, Taylor and Mach will be better this year.   You don't?

IMO Taylor will be better than he was throughout the year, but probably won't improve much form his last month or so.  Teams did not have to concern themselves with the running game too much last year for the 1st 2/3 of the year.  I don't think anyone is going to run any team to a title anytime soon.  The rules of the game diminish it's importance.  His relative ineffectiveness in the 1st half didn't cause our record to be poor, so I'm not sure this improves us all that much. 

 

I really liked Mack.  Ideally he and Taylor complement each others skills sets almost perfectly.  Each man's strenghts seems to be the other man's weaknesses. The Achilles doesn't engender any confidence in me.  If he's good, it will be the first guy in NFL history to produce at RB after that injury.

 

Pitt will likely be better, but I don't see him as an alpha receiver, and I don't think many projected him that way.  He looks smooth in the open field, but his route running is suspect and I don't recall any go up and get it from the dude.  I like him and we could see a sizeable leap in production, but there are many variables there.

 

Campbell.  Like him too, but they used Pitt on crossers like they wanted to use PC.  Will he stay on the field?  

 

Pitt and PCs production is going to be a function of Wentz.  I liked the deal.  I think it's worth the risk, but him being as good as PR is certainly not a certainty IMO.  I think Rivers production last year is severerly underrated by most on this board.  He really carried the team IMO under some very difficult circumstances with personnel in and out of the lineup.  He's an HOFer and his decision making and release was Manning like.

 

As it stands, we have no LT and no real DE rushing threat. I can't even imagine that we address those to the level we had last year in this draft with the picks we have available to us.  If Ballard pulls that off, good on him.  I also think the posters here have historically underrated AC.  We will almost certainly not get the kind of pass pro from whomever replaces him, but will probably have better run blocking.  AC was ppor there last year. 

 

I am not confident in our secondary, especailly with the pass rushing situation so unsettled.

Our schedule should be more daunting.

 

I am still very unsure what direction this team will go. Neither Bullish or Bearish.  

[Superman]

2 hours ago, shasta519 said:

 

If Ballard had signed Hendrickson for $15M or Lawson or whomever...it would be regarded as a great deal, if not a steal. There would be articles on Stampede Blue about that player is just tapping into some elite All-Pro upside.

 

 

Not by all. I said before FA that I didn't want either of them for big money.

[Zoltan]

3 hours ago, DEFENSE said:

do any of the elite talent really want to play for the dollar general gm?

 

Honestly, I don't think Ballard wants to bring in an elite talent that's looking for a pay day. So the point maybe moot

[JoeThornburg]

36 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

 

Honestly, I don't think Ballard wants to bring in an elite talent that's looking for a pay day. So the point maybe moot

Well that's what you really have to watch out for with pass rushers on contract years. That is why I would have leaned more toward signing a veteran LT, as they tend to age more gracefully. Your best bet historically is to get a young pass rusher on a rookie deal. It's a proven strategy backed up by numbers. They are just more productive their first few years in the league and then categorically fall off after that. Of course there will be outliers in that spread but you're always rolling the dice on a big money pass rusher unless you work with that player day in and day out. I know people were upset about letting Autry walk but he fits that description. It's no different than a running back in their 30's.

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

the great gms who build great teams dont limit the team to just the draft and low dollar talent, they use any avenue they can to put above average talent on the field. that is why some teams never reach the next level.

[JoeThornburg]

51 minutes ago, DEFENSE said:

the great gms who build great teams dont limit the team to just the draft and low dollar talent, they use any avenue they can to put above average talent on the field. that is why some teams never reach the next level.

It does take both. Pittsburgh is another team that tends to do this, though they do draft very well (except whiffing on Lamar Jackson). Shocked everyone when they traded for Fitzpatrick and also traded up to grab Bush. Both great moves though.

[Moosejawcolt]

22 hours ago, Superman said:

 

One could make that argument. They'd be wrong, IMO. The Bucs added several contributing players in 2020, not just Brady. It was also Bruce Arians' second season, so that's a major contributing factor beyond Licht's team building. They weren't getting incrementally better in previous seasons, they were stagnant. And they drafted a would-be franchise QB who didn't work out. Licht did not intend to have a six year build, which is why the QB and the coach were replaced.

 

And let's say, for argument's sake, that this angle is legitimate. That would suggest that the ideal team building approach, as exemplified by the Bucs, is a seven year process. It would mean you should not expect ANY success for the first six years, and maybe you'll get a pay off after that. If that's the case, Ballard's Colts are far ahead of that pace, are they not?

 

The Bucs are an(other) example that there's nothing wrong with adding players in FA. They're also an(other) example that just being active in FA isn't enough to build a winning team (Suh, JPP, Curry, etc.) Attempting to make anything more of their approach is, IMO, a stretch.

 

One last thing on Ballard: He is more conservative than most, for better or worse. This frustrated me about Polian, who eventually just disregarded FA altogether (especially after the Corey Simon ordeal). So far, Ballard is not that conservative, but he is more restrictive in his process and approach. Still, he traded a first for Buckner, and paid him $84m, and he paid Rivers $25m; without those two moves, do the Colts have a winning season in 2020? Not to mention the auxiliary additions that were a great value for the team, like Rhodes, Burton, etc.

 

And this season, he traded TWO picks for Wentz, along with his $25m/year. This move was unprecedented for Ballard, on two counts. 1) It's the only transaction in which Ballard has traded away two picks, 2) It's the only transaction in which Ballard has traded away a future pick. (Correct me if I'm wrong on either count.) 

 

My point on Ballard is that he's not so conservative that he won't take a big swing or two when he sees the opportunity to do so, as long as he thinks it's right. I am not arguing that he is infallible, or that no one should ever disagree with him. Time will tell how good of a GM he is. I'm just pointing out, again, that he's obviously a principled and disciplined decision maker, so maybe we collectively can stop expecting him to make huge splash moves.

Good points