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How you feel about Ballards approach to FA


Nesjan3

How you feel about Ballards approach to FA  

116 members have voted

  1. 1. How do you feel about Ballards approach to FA?

    • We are loaded in cash and have a team ready to make a run Ballard is asleep at the wheel (Angry)
      11
    • We have good draft picks that need to get paid, Ballard has built this team through the draft thus far, he will continue to do so. (Happy)
      84
    • Other, add your answer in the comments
      21


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3 hours ago, Superman said:

I picked Happy, but wanted to add that I could get behind him being a little more aggressive for needed positions. To be clear, he's done that plenty, including 2020 when he signed Rivers and traded for Buckner. It would have been nice to see a swing at edge this year, though.

 

However, it was pretty obvious that they weren't going to spend big this offseason. Shrinking cap, lots of FAs to try to retain, and pending extensions for young players. The writing was on the wall as early as last offseason.

 

I picked 'Other' for the very same reason because I was happy about the Buckner and Wentz trade dabbling while I am not so thrilled about not enough swings at the pass rusher or TE position. 

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22 minutes ago, Mackrel829 said:

 

Yes. Again, no one is disputing that. My assertion, once more, is that sack numbers for individual players do not reliably correlate to pass rush performance for those individual players.

 

I.e. Bud Dupree had more sacks last season than Carl Lawson. That doesn't mean that Bud Dupree is a better pass rusher than Carl Lawson.

The top 2 in sacks last season were:

TJ Watt

Aaron Donald

Does that mean that they are 2 of the best in the NFL.   Yes, it sure does.

 

I think we both mostly agree.   I really just disagreed with your comment "they are very unreliable" as to sacks.    

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23 minutes ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

We are 5 years into that 3 year rebuild. Wash...rinse...repeat.


The 3 year rebuild was with a franchise QB (A. Luck) to be fair. 
 

Not making excuses for Ballard, but three QB’s in 4 seasons and 2 playoff appearances ain’t bad. 
 

Now, if the Colts were to miss the playoffs the next couple seasons, then I’d start thinking it’s time for a change.

 

I think the average tenure for a GM is roughly 5 years. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, Scott Pennock said:

Building thru the draft and sprinkling in a veteran or two free agents to fill in the blanks is always the best way to build a team - unless you suck at drafting, which Chris Ballard does not.

 

He addressed the most glaring need for the team and that is a Franchise QB. I don't care about the lackluster year Wentz had last year, he is a franchise type QB and that will bear itself out over the next few years. He did it without giving up a player and without major draft capitol - compared to the rest of the QB trades.

 

He has addressed either depth or starting OLine with a flurry of free agent signings in Hunt (C/G), Sam Jones (OG), Chris Reed (OG), Jake Benzinger (OT), Julien Davenport (OT), Elijah Nkansah (OT), Sam Tevi (OT), and Casey Tucker (OT) since the end of the season. It's important to remember that an olineman is fickle and can be great for one team and suck for another depending on the linemates, coaches and scheme. 

 

I will not fall into the trap of saying he did not focus on edge rushers I just think some didn't match what we want motor wise, or perhaps locker room presence wise........and of course most were overpaid to begin with.  I am inclined to think that after Lewis's resurgence last year he feels he can handle left end with Banogu as the designated rusher. On the right side Muhammed plays the run pretty darn well so he likely could start and Turay is the designated rusher. I know that sounds like an unproven commodity but they have to prove it sometime with more PT/Snaps. The draft will likely bring us one (likely to compete as a starter) or two (likely a skills guy that needs coaching up) to fill in the blanks. I would not overlook that Houston could be brought back as a rotational piece, or a Kerrigan could still be brought in as well as a situational guy. I'd be happy adding those two to what we have plus a stud rookie.

 

Bringing Xavier back was huge as it gives CB and company an opportunity to draft a projectable CB prospect that may not be ready to start now, but in a year or two. Plus, that gives a mental boost to the other young guys which will give them more confidence in refining their abilities. 

 

So essentially Chris Ballard and company has put themselves in a position to draft best available player instead of forcing a CB, or a DE or an OT. Will they draft those three positions, absolutely they will. But if a TE they want is available in a certain round they can draft that TE versus forcing one of the other 3 spots. I have full confidence that Ballard will have another solid draft and will come out smelling like roses once again.

Since it wouldn't let me edit - there is another dlineman on the roster from last year name Kameron Cline whose athletic profile at 6'4" and 283 lines up very favorably with Buckner's. 

 

Buckner                    Cline

5.05 40                      4.90 40

21 reps                      20 reps

32" vertical                32" vertical

116 long jump           114 long jump

4.47 shuttle                4.15 shuttle

7.51 3-cone                7.10 3-cone

 

The innate athletic ability is there, technique wise he was likely way behind based off of where they attended college so it was good that he 'redshirted' last year (except for 1 game - 2 tackles).

 

He was a DE in college that they had at DT for us, but, he could potentially fill that Autry role based off of his size and skillset. 

 

Could be another reason why the FO didn't pull the trigger on a high priced free agent when they like what they have in house? You can say he was on the PS all year, blah, blah, blah.......baseball teams have rookies come up that played only in the minors and play well - no real difference.

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1 hour ago, Mackrel829 said:

Fair enough. I've not seen any of your previous comments on this so I appreciate the (repeated) explanation.

 

Lawson's not on the level of Joey Bosa, and I'm certainly not arguing that he is. He's more than 50% of Joey Bosa though, which is why I contend that his contract is reasonable. He's not a top 5 edge rusher, but he's not getting paid like one. He's getting paid like a top 10ish guy, which is exactly what I think he is. That's far and away better than anyone we have on the roster will even come close to.

 

In a vacuum, I'd take Bosa at $25m vs Lawson $15m. In our specific situation this off-season, I think Lawson was by far the best option available, and would have been an excellent addition.

 

I don't think Lawson's a top ten edge. He gets a lot of pressures, and there's value in that, but top guys also sack the QB. 

 

I wouldn't pay Lawson $15m/year because I think he's far more replaceable than a top edge player. (By the way, I think Bosa's contract is kind of outrageous, but the cap is set to explode so the Chargers are biting the bullet.) He's a good player, better than anyone we have on the edge, but still not a good enough pass rusher for what he's getting.

 

All JMO.

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1 hour ago, chad72 said:

 

I picked 'Other' for the very same reason because I was happy about the Buckner and Wentz trade dabbling while I am not so thrilled about not enough swings at the pass rusher or TE position. 

 

TEs got a lot of money this year.

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42 minutes ago, Myles said:

The top 2 in sacks last season were:

TJ Watt

Aaron Donald

Does that mean that they are 2 of the best in the NFL.   Yes, it sure does.

 

I think we both mostly agree.   I really just disagreed with your comment "they are very unreliable" as to sacks.    

 

Watt and Donald consistently put up big sack numbers so that changes the conversation slightly. Look at 3, 4, and 5 on that list and my point is better illustrated.

 

I think we'd all agree that Trey Hendrickson, Haason Reddick, and Zadarious Smith aren't among the top 5 edge rushers in the league but they all finished top 5 in sacks.

 

It's very likely that at least two of those players will heavily regress in terms of their sack numbers even if other numbers - such as pass rush win rate and pressures - stay the same. That's why sacks are somewhat unreliable. They can be unstable and flukey, much like touchdowns.

 

The edge class in this year's draft is also a good illustration, which is why I mentioned Rousseau earlier. He finished with 19.5 sacks (iirc), which is pretty outrageous. If we value sacks highly as a statistic, he should be going top 10 no question. A lot of draft analysts have him falling to the bottom of the first round, and even into the second as the 5th-ish best edge rusher in th class because a lot of factors contributed to that sack production and the number probably isn't representative of his true performance as a pass rusher.

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3 hours ago, BlackTiger said:

They have plenty to sign Nelson, Smith and Leonard next year, and then some

 

I dont think anyone expected a big spending spree, but the team actually looks worse than last year


I disagree. The team is going to be more dynamic. Carson Wentz adds another element to the offense. He has a strong arm and can make the throws that the aging Rivers just couldn’t make. Timing and ball placement was always Rivers game, but he was clearly much slower as he got older. I also think that TY will have a much better year; due to Pittman emerging and having a QB that can throw it 70 plus yards down the field.  
 

I think people are overlooking how big the Carson Wentz trade is. Normally a team has to go through a devastating season to get a QB of that caliber. We got him for a late 3rd and a late 1st (but only if he is worth it). If Wentz was in the 2021 Draft, he would probably go top 3. 
 

I do agree that we have a couple of holes to fill. The obvious ones are LT and DE. I am not sold that we absolutely need a corner this year. It would be nice to grab one though. 
 

I don’t think the Colts have many weaknesses. That said, there is still work to do in the draft and with some lower level free agency signings. 
 

I wouldn’t rule out a trade either. For example; I think the Ertz to Indy rumors have a lot of fuel. We could probably get him for a 4th or 5th... Or just wait until he is cut. I have a feeling that we are at the top of his list, if he does become a free agent. 
 

We just need to be patient and see what the roster looks like in training camp. Enjoy the ride, because it will make the success so much more fulfilling. I like what I am seeing so far. This team is building something very special. Our defense reminds me a lot of what the Ravens defense looked like in the late 90’s, before they became great. 

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2 minutes ago, Mackrel829 said:

The edge class in this year's draft is also a good illustration, which is why I mentioned Rousseau earlier. He finished with 19.5 sacks (iirc), which is pretty outrageous. If we value sacks highly as a statistic, he should be going top 10 no question. A lot of draft analysts have him falling to the bottom of the first round, and even into the second as the 5th-ish best edge rusher in th class because a lot of factors contributed to that sack production and the number probably isn't representative of his true performance as a pass rusher.

 

I mean, we don't scout box scores. Projecting how a player will perform in the future is not just based on statistical analysis, especially when projecting a college player to the NFL. 

 

We agree that sacks are unreliable in a lot of cases, while pressures tend to be more stable. But we can't just replace sacks analysis with pressure analysis, because there's a ton of context missing when considering pressure stats alone.

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9 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't think Lawson's a top ten edge. He gets a lot of pressures, and there's value in that, but top guys also sack the QB. 

 

I wouldn't pay Lawson $15m/year because I think he's far more replaceable than a top edge player. (By the way, I think Bosa's contract is kind of outrageous, but the cap is set to explode so the Chargers are biting the bullet.) He's a good player, better than anyone we have on the edge, but still not a good enough pass rusher for what he's getting.

 

All JMO.

 

I think the Jets could have a nasty D-Line next year and beyond, especially if they draft an edge at #23.

 

Lawson, Williams, Rankins, Rousseau/Oweh/Paye/Ojulari, etc.

 

Your point about the cap exploding is another reason that I hoped Ballard would feel comfortable spending on a guy. $15m for Lawson by next off-season and beyond is going to look absolutely fine. Extra cap space means plenty of money to resign our own guys too. 

 

I understand your perspective, however, and appreciate the discussion.

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6 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I mean, we don't scout box scores. Projecting how a player will perform in the future is not just based on statistical analysis, especially when projecting a college player to the NFL. 

 

We agree that sacks are unreliable in a lot of cases, while pressures tend to be more stable. But we can't just replace sacks analysis with pressure analysis, because there's a ton of context missing when considering pressure stats alone.


Agreed. I do think that Polian had a good way of using college stats though. Especially, when players stack multiple years together with great college stats. For example; Dwight Freeney. If Freeney didn’t have the great college production then Polian would have never drafted him in the first round. 

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1 hour ago, MPStack said:


The 3 year rebuild was with a franchise QB (A. Luck) to be fair. 
 

Not making excuses for Ballard, but three QB’s in 4 seasons and 2 playoff appearances ain’t bad. 
 

Now, if the Colts were to miss the playoffs the next couple seasons, then I’d start thinking it’s time for a change.

 

I think the average tenure for a GM is roughly 5 years. 
 

 

If you're close ,You have to take chances to get to the next level....the Bills did it...the Bucs did it. Ballard is too conservative.

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11 minutes ago, Mackrel829 said:

Your point about the cap exploding is another reason that I hoped Ballard would feel comfortable spending on a guy. $15m for Lawson by next off-season and beyond is going to look absolutely fine. Extra cap space means plenty of money to resign our own guys too. 

 

It would have meant a significant departure in the way the Colts structure contracts. I didn't see that happening, but yeah, they could have spent more this year and still had cap space to keep their young guys, if they wanted to make that adjustment to the way they do business.

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3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

It would have meant a significant departure in the way the Colts structure contracts. I didn't see that happening, but yeah, they could have spent more this year and still had cap space to keep their young guys, if they wanted to make that adjustment to the way they do business.

 

He traded a first round pick for Buckner last off-season and then paid him $84m.

 

It's not like Ballard hasn't spent when he felt the guy was worth it. I guess he just agrees with you that Lawson isn't worth it rather than with me that he is lol.

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Just now, Mackrel829 said:

 

He traded a first round pick for Buckner last off-season and then paid him $84m.

 

It's not like Ballard hasn't spent when he felt the guy was worth it. I guess he just agrees with you that Lawson isn't worth it rather than with me that he is lol.

 

I'm not talking about pay, I'm talking about contract structure. The Colts don't use backloaded contracts with big signing bonuses and low initial cap hits, which is what it would have taken to get a big signing this year. 

 

Buckner didn't get a signing bonus. He got a roster bonus, and his Year 1 cap hit was $23m. 

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3 minutes ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

If you're close ,You have to take chances to get to the next level....the Bills did it...the Bucs did it. Ballard is too conservative.


This will probably ruffle some feathers, but I don’t think the Colts are close to being SB contenders yet and actually may take a step back in 2021.

 

I won’t disagree with you on Ballard being conservative. Doesn’t make him a bad GM and having three starting QB’s in 4 seasons isn’t ideal. 
 

He’s a pretty good GM, but I do think he gets a little to much praise at times. 
 

1 playoff victory in 4 seasons. I’m sure if Luck was still QB things would be different, but that’s water under the bridge.

 

Bottom line if Ballard is going to build through the draft, he needs to draft better. 


A lot of 2nd Rd picks have under performed and that’s on Ballard. 
 

Just my 2 cents. 

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1 hour ago, MPStack said:


This will probably ruffle some feathers, but I don’t think the Colts are close to being SB contenders yet and actually may take a step back in 2021.

 

I won’t disagree with you on Ballard being conservative. Doesn’t make him a bad GM and having three starting QB’s in 4 seasons isn’t ideal. 
 

He’s a pretty good GM, but I do think he gets a little to much praise at times. 
 

1 playoff victory in 4 seasons. I’m sure if Luck was still QB things would be different, but that’s water under the bridge.

 

Bottom line if Ballard is going to build through the draft, he needs to draft better. 


A lot of 2nd Rd picks have under performed and that’s on Ballard. 
 

Just my 2 cents. 

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

 

Ballard is forcing himself to have a GREAT draft year after year because of his stubbornness in free agency.

 

He has shown he is willing to make a move if needed (Buckner, Wentz). But he is not willing to over pay a single dollar (Autry) (Almost Hilton) and sometimes it creates a big hole like there currently is at defensive line.

 

He was so stubborn this free agency that I almost think he doesn’t believe the team is SB ready yet and wants to play the wait and see approach with Wentz.

 

This team has not improved from last years team on paper. Colts haven’t won the AFC South since 2014 and have only won 1 playoff game with Ballard as GM....

 

I like Ballard but get gets ALOT of praise for not a lot of success.

 

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29 minutes ago, bravo4460 said:

He has shown he is willing to make a move if needed (Buckner, Wentz). But he is not willing to over pay a single dollar (Autry) (Almost Hilton) and sometimes it creates a big hole like there currently is at defensive line.

 

He was so stubborn this free agency that I almost think he doesn’t believe the team is SB ready yet and wants to play the wait and see approach with Wentz.

 

This team has not improved from last years team on paper. Colts haven’t won the AFC South since 2014 and have only won 1 playoff game with Ballard as GM....

 

Some of you guys act like losing Autry is equal to the Raiders trading Khalil Mack. Autry was average, and he'll be 31 years old before the season starts. 

 

I do think they want to wait and see on Wentz, which makes sense. But if Wentz works like they hope, this team is definitely better than last year's team.

 

And judging a GM by playoff wins and division titles without acknowledging the bad roster/coaching in Year 1, or the QB carousel ever since, is intellectually dishonest.

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1 hour ago, MPStack said:


This will probably ruffle some feathers, but I don’t think the Colts are close to being SB contenders yet and actually may take a step back in 2021.

 

I won’t disagree with you on Ballard being conservative. Doesn’t make him a bad GM and having three starting QB’s in 4 seasons isn’t ideal. 
 

He’s a pretty good GM, but I do think he gets a little to much praise at times. 
 

1 playoff victory in 4 seasons. I’m sure if Luck was still QB things would be different, but that’s water under the bridge.

 

Bottom line if Ballard is going to build through the draft, he needs to draft better. 


A lot of 2nd Rd picks have under performed and that’s on Ballard. 
 

Just my 2 cents. 

I agree. I don't see one area that the Colts got better at this off season and that includes QB. That fact plus a much tougher schedule doesn't bode well for the Colts in 2021.

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16 minutes ago, cdgacoltsfan said:

I agree. I don't see one area that the Colts got better at this off season and that includes QB. That fact plus a much tougher schedule doesn't bode well for the Colts in 2021.

 

We have the youngest roster in the league, and a lot of them are on the upswing of their career. Therefore we don't have to sign a bunch of FA players to improve because the roster is improving as the young roster develops.

 

But I also believe Wentz is an upgrade over Rivers, just for the fact we can do more on offense with Wentz like run a QB sneak or play-action or roll outs, etc.

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6 hours ago, Nickster said:

I think that people are over bullish on the state of this franchise in the future with the whole be patient thing.  We lack at the most expensive positions.  Our stars at less expensive positions are coming up for massive massive pay raises.  I am not confident that when the bill comes due after next season, we will have talent in place in premium postions that is cost effective so that we can sign our non premium studs.

 

If Wentz becomes a dependable star I think we are in decent shape.  If not, I think all the In Ballard We Trust stuff will look pretty silly.  

I think the guy has gotten us competitve with all the obstacles he's faced, but as if today, I think we are a worse team than last year.  If Wentz isn't really good (and I lean he will be BTW), he won't be as good as Rivers.  I like Taylor now, but he's still just a RB and isn't going to run us to a title.  That hasn't happened since Emmitt Smitt or so.  

 

I have a lot of doubts about this franchise going forward.  But then hey, I'm a lifelong Cub Fan and always expect the worst possible outcome.

ballards record of 32 and 32 for 4 years is just average , we lack playmakers, bucs went out and got some last season and it worked for them

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35 minutes ago, DEFENSE said:

ballards record of 32 and 32 for 4 years is just average , we lack playmakers, bucs went out and got some last season and it worked for them

 

This story that Bucs won the Super Bowl by FA is overblown. Aside from Tom Brady, most of their starting players and playmakers were drafted, only two starters were FA pick ups on defense (Suh, and JPP) then on offense it's 4 (Stinnie, Jensen, Brady, Gronk or Brown depending on two TE set or 3 WR).

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

 

This story that Bucs won the Super Bowl by FA is overblown. Aside from Tom Brady, most of their starting players and playmakers were drafted, only two starters were FA pick ups on defense (Suh, and JPP) then on offense it's 4 (Stinnie, Jensen, Brady, Gronk or Brown depending on two TE set or 3 WR).


Bucs GM Jason Litcht has done a really nice job since taking over a 2-14 Bucs team in 2014. And for the most part he has drafted well. 

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We're too passive in free agency for my taste but it does seem to be a mindset amongst Colts fans to focus almost exclusively on drafting and resigning so perhaps its more of a "Colts" thing rather than a "Ballard" thing.

 

To me, focusing purely on the draft is difficult when the "lifespan" of a player career is so short and there's so many key positions in today's NFL. By the time you've got to a stage where you've filled all the holes the players at from the start of that process are past their peak, expensive or even retiring. 

 

Secondly you need to maximise on the use of resources and having a massive chunk of cap sat there puts us at a competitive disadvantage. 

 

When you advocate for being a bit more aggressive in free agency people seem to take it like you want to blow everything.....but there is a middle ground. You can't tell me that there aren't at least a couple of higher priced players available in free agency over these last few years that wouldn't have made better. So what's wrong with paying the market rate for them?

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16 hours ago, MPStack said:


The 3 year rebuild was with a franchise QB (A. Luck) to be fair. 
 

Not making excuses for Ballard, but three QB’s in 4 seasons and 2 playoff appearances ain’t bad. 
 

Now, if the Colts were to miss the playoffs the next couple seasons, then I’d start thinking it’s time for a change.

 

I think the average tenure for a GM is roughly 5 years. 
 

 


+
 

And just think about how smart he has been throughout the quarterback saga. He has tactfully not married himself to any QB. Even with Wentz; he is not married. Smart man. 
 

=Longevity. 

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6 hours ago, ClaytonColt said:

We're too passive in free agency for my taste but it does seem to be a mindset amongst Colts fans to focus almost exclusively on drafting and resigning so perhaps its more of a "Colts" thing rather than a "Ballard" thing.

 

To me, focusing purely on the draft is difficult when the "lifespan" of a player career is so short and there's so many key positions in today's NFL. By the time you've got to a stage where you've filled all the holes the players at from the start of that process are past their peak, expensive or even retiring. 

 

Secondly you need to maximise on the use of resources and having a massive chunk of cap sat there puts us at a competitive disadvantage. 

 

When you advocate for being a bit more aggressive in free agency people seem to take it like you want to blow everything.....but there is a middle ground. You can't tell me that there aren't at least a couple of higher priced players available in free agency over these last few years that wouldn't have made better. So what's wrong with paying the market rate for them?

you hit it spot on, ballards method is just spinning tires, going no where to win a superbowl or even our division, his dollar general method has turned us into just an average team, with a roster filled with just average talent and few playmakers and game changers

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@ this point, if CB tells our fanbase to drink bleach, I'ma drink bleach. In Ballard I trust. Man is simply better at his job than the rest. And it's not fair to use Super Bowls solely to quantify this... our franchise quarterback abruptly retired two years ago, and we haven't had a franchise guy since up until now. Sometimes I get antsy and want us to be more aggressive, but then I remember that he's smarter than me.

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21 minutes ago, DEFENSE said:

you hit it spot on, ballards method is just spinning tires, going no where to win a superbowl or even our division, his dollar general method has turned us into just an average team, with a roster filled with just average talent and few playmakers and game changers

  Average? Few playmakers? Are we watching the same team? Are not Darius Leonard, Bobby Okereke, Kenny Moore, Xavier Rhodes, Johnathan Taylor, Julian Blackman, Deforest Buckner, Grover Stewart, Quentin Nelson, Jack Doyle, Micheal Pittman and Neihem Hines playmakers?

   The Colts are above average in tackling and are well disciplined.

 Maybe they don’t have a “superstar receiver” (which may be a result of the play calling to spread the ball around), but their receivers are pretty solid.

  They have guys that haven’t reached their prime yet and if you consider guys coming back from injury (Mack, Campbell) and players getting another year’s experience and with a good draft, this team is far from average.

   

 

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