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Any news on Houston?


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20 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

 

My question is are we trying to resign Houston?

I don't have twitter but I saw on the board we had Kenny Moore doing all these tweets about Rhodes and Hilton, when we were trying to resign them but I haven't heard anything from any source about trying to resign Houston. 

 

Unless I have missed something which is completely possible

 

No idea - this is almost a month old. It makes it seem like Ballard did acknowledge Houston could definitely play.

 

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2021/03/12/colts-justin-houstons-age-inconsistency-make-free-agency-tough/6877176002/

 

https://ugawire.usatoday.com/2021/03/30/report-indianapolis-colts-interested-in-bringing-back-uga-great-justin-houston-georgia-football-news/

 

 

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On 4/6/2021 at 7:12 AM, BlueShoe said:

 

I think we can both agree that Houston started the season better than he finished. And that is my point. He did fade down the stretch. It happens with older players. 

Sorry, no, not agreeing. We had a weak schedule, especially early in the year. We also played bad OLs. 

 

Even though pure stats don't support your narrative, you want to dismiss some late games, while putting weight on the first four games which were 2 of the worst teams in the league, and against OLs ranked no better than 20th. You have yet to provide any quantitative data to support your opinion. Just he played "better" vs early teams. Well, most players would look better vs NYJ and Jax.

 

Houston may have been inconsistent at times, but the majority of his stats came the second half of the season vs Houston, and first half vs poor teams with poor OLs. If you look at most DEs, you'll find that most have better stats vs bad teams and bad OLs. It's a natural thing. Houston's stats are somewhat predictive if you look at the team played, and OL ranking.

 

What you can't dismiss, is his top 10 status in PRWR, which is a season long metric. He fell out of the top 10 mid season ish, and regained top 10 status late in the year (maybe even the last weak).

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2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Sorry, no, not agreeing. We had a weak schedule, especially early in the year. We also played bad OLs. 

 

Even though pure stats don't support your narrative, you want to dismiss some late games, while putting weight on the first four games which were 2 of the worst teams in the league, and against OLs ranked no better than 20th. You have yet to provide any quantitative data to support your opinion. Just he played "better" vs early teams. Well, most players would look better vs NYJ and Jax.

 

Houston may have been inconsistent at times, but the majority of his stats came the second half of the season vs Houston, and first half vs poor teams with poor OLs. If you look at most DEs, you'll find that most have better stats vs bad teams and bad OLs. It's a natural thing. Houston's stats are somewhat predictive if you look at the team played, and OL ranking.

 

What you can't dismiss, is his top 10 status in PRWR, which is a season long metric. He fell out of the top 10 mid season ish, and regained top 10 status late in the year (maybe even the last weak).


Well I guess it’s settled then. We disagree. 

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1 hour ago, BlueShoe said:


Well I guess it’s settled then. We disagree. 

 

How about we take a very simple mathematical look at this based on pressures vs OL rank.

To keep it simple, I use a point range based on OL rank.

 

OL Rank: Points per pressure

1-4: 8
5-8: 7
9-12: 6
13-16: 5
17-20: 4
21-24: 3
25-28: 2
29-32: 1

 

 

Game # / Team / Pressures / OL Rank / Points
1 / Jax / 4 / 22 / 12
2 / Min / 1 / 26 / 2
3 / NYJ / 1 / 29 / 1
4 / Chi / 3 / 20 / 12
5 / Cle / 1 / 1 / 8
6 / Cin / 0 / 30 / 0
7 / Det / 1 / 13 / 5
8 / Bal / 0 / 16 / 0
Total 1st Half Pressure Score - 40


9 / Ten / 1 / 15 / 5
10 / GB / 1 / 2 / 8
11 / Ten / 1 / 15 / 5
12 / Hou / 5 / 23 / 15
13 / LVR / 0 / 24 / 0
14 / Hou / 5 / 23 / 15
15 / Pit / 0 / 17 / 0
16 / Jax / 1 / 22 / 3
Total 2nd Half Pressure Score - 51

 

Post Season / Buf / 3 / 10 / 18

 

So 51 points in the second half vs 40 in the 1st half. Then a bonus 18 points in the last game in the postseason.

 

 

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8 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

How about we take a very simple mathematical look at this based on pressures vs OL rank.

To keep it simple, I use a point range based on OL rank.

 

OL Rank: Points per pressure

1-4: 8
5-8: 7
9-12: 6
13-16: 5
17-20: 4
21-24: 3
25-28: 2
29-32: 1

 

 

Game # / Team / Pressures / OL Rank / Points
1 / Jax / 4 / 22 / 12
2 / Min / 1 / 26 / 2
3 / NYJ / 1 / 29 / 1
4 / Chi / 3 / 20 / 12
5 / Cle / 1 / 1 / 8
6 / Cin / 0 / 30 / 0
7 / Det / 1 / 13 / 5
8 / Bal / 0 / 16 / 0
Total 1st Half Pressure Score - 40


9 / Ten / 1 / 15 / 5
10 / GB / 1 / 2 / 8
11 / Ten / 1 / 15 / 5
12 / Hou / 5 / 23 / 15
13 / LVR / 0 / 24 / 0
14 / Hou / 5 / 23 / 15
15 / Pit / 0 / 17 / 0
16 / Jax / 1 / 22 / 3
Total 2nd Half Pressure Score - 51

 

Post Season / Buf / 3 / 10 / 18

 

So 51 points in the second half vs 40 in the 1st half. Then a bonus 18 points in the last game in the postseason.

 

 

 

I gave you the opportunity to just disagree and move on... But you want to continue this discussion. I have data that supports what my eyes showed me from Justin Houston last year. 

 

PFF saw it the same way I did...

 

Justin Houston, DE, Indianapolis Colts

 

Snap %
58.9%

 

Grade Thru Quarter 1
73.6

 

Grade Thru Quarter 2
62.6

 

Grade Thru Quarter 3
64.4

 

Grade Thru Quarter 4
63.5

 

Career Grade
87.1

 

 

Justin Houston faded in the second half of the season... Period! And every quarter of last year was below his career average rating. You can continue this conversation. Attack my view... Attack PFF's view... Knock yourself out. Have a Good Day. :) 

 

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Bottom line, for the 50-60% snap rate that Houston plays, coming off an inconsistent year where he was off his consistent years, Ballard is hesitant to fork over too much money, I am guessing.

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26 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I gave you the opportunity to just disagree and move on... But you want to continue this discussion. I have data that supports what my eyes showed me from Justin Houston last year. 

 

PFF saw it the same way I did...

 

Justin Houston, DE, Indianapolis Colts

 

Snap %
58.9%

 

Grade Thru Quarter 1
73.6

 

Grade Thru Quarter 2
62.6

 

Grade Thru Quarter 3
64.4

 

Grade Thru Quarter 4
63.5

 

Career Grade
87.1

 

 

Justin Houston faded in the second half of the season... Period! And every quarter of last year was below his career average rating. You can continue this conversation. Attack my view... Attack PFF's view... Knock yourself out. Have a Good Day. :)

 

LOL..... 

 

So what did I say.... His performance would correspond to the quality of teams we faced, and their OL ranking.... 

So would you like me to quantify or average out team records and OL ranks by quarter...

 

Anyone can see we played the poorest teams, and the poorest OLs, on average in the 1st quarter.... 

 

And even with that, his production (not PFF) was better, later..... lol

 

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With all the Houston talk, It should be a no brainer we bring him back at least for 1 year at around 8 or 9 mill and guarantee his money. He was 2nd on the team in sacks with 8 only behind our best defensive player Buckner who had 9.5. In an area everyone in here knows we are weak at = pass rusher/getting pressure on the QB, how could anyone not want him back for 1 year? He is older but who cares, he is still good and bringing him back for 1 year would help the team no matter how one would look at it. Until we figure out a long term solution for pass rusher, then he is the best option for now.

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44 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

LOL..... 

 

So what did I say.... His performance would correspond to the quality of teams we faced, and their OL ranking.... 

So would you like me to quantify or average out team records and OL ranks by quarter...

 

Anyone can see we played the poorest teams, and the poorest OLs, on average in the 1st quarter.... 

 

And even with that, his production (not PFF) was better, later..... lol

 

 

If you want to agree that Justin Houston was a starting caliber player against the first 4 teams we played, and the final 12 games he was a backup caliber player then PFF would agree with you. PFF is actually being a little more harsh on him than I was... But after looking at this in more detail... Maybe it was slightly worse than I originally thought. 

 

PFF Player Grading Scale:
100-90 Elite 
89-85 Pro Bowler 
84-70 Starter (Justin Houston 1st quarter of 2020)
69-60 Backup (Justin Houston 2nd thru 4th quarter of 2020)
59-0 Replaceable

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16 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

With all the Houston talk, It should be a no brainer we bring him back at least for 1 year at around 8 or 9 mill and guarantee his money. He was 2nd on the team in sacks with 8 only behind our best defensive player Buckner who had 9.5. In an area everyone in here knows we are weak at = pass rusher/getting pressure on the QB, how could anyone not want him back for 1 year? He is older but who cares, he is still good and bringing him back for 1 year would help the team no matter how one would look at. Until we figure out a long term solution for pass rusher, then he is the best option for now.

 

I would not give Justin Houston 8-9 million a year. Chris Ballard is calling the shots, so we will see. I don't think Ballard will do that, unless we get desperate... To me that is way too much for a guy who has reached the point of his career where he is a rotational player. Just my 2 cents worth...

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1 minute ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I would not give Justin Houston 8-9 million a year. Chris Ballard is calling the shots, so we will see. I don't think Ballard will do that, unless we get desperate... To me that is way too much for a guy who has reached the point of his career where he is a rotational player. Just my 2 cents worth...

He made 12 mill last year, if you pay him 8 that is a 4 million dollar paycut lol. Without him QB's will have all day to throw unless Ballard comes up with a miracle in the draft. Having said that, it is a bad year for pass rushers coming out and we need to take a LT at #21 in reality.

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On 4/7/2021 at 2:17 PM, richard pallo said:

I couldn't agree more.  This is the perfect storm for us to sign him.  Houston made 12m last year and Clowney made 13m.  There is no way either of them is going to hit those numbers again.  So now you have a 32 yr old vs a 28 yr old ER.  Houston is the easy, cheaper complacent choice of going with what you know and HOPING for a repeat of last year.  Clowney is the more aggressive choice an attempt to improve your team with a player teams have to game plan for.  A younger player with more upside.  Both will make less than what they made last year so he will not break the bank for us.  But he could be another difference maker on defense.  The cost is no longer prohibitive and the reward could be huge.  I think it's time for Ballard to take another swing.  It worked with Rhodes it can work with Clowney too.  Now the price is right. 

Im not against Clowney, but he is not the long term answer.

 

He might fill a role of rotational player which DOES have some value, but after reading more on the guy, the knee issue may be worse, and a reason that no one has really made a strong play for him 

 

If healthy, what he does bring is excellent run support, first and foremost

 

However, I would hate to waste 6-8M for a guy that seems to spend more time on the medical table vs the playing field 

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28 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

With all the Houston talk, It should be a no brainer we bring him back at least for 1 year at around 8 or 9 mill and guarantee his money. He was 2nd on the team in sacks with 8 only behind our best defensive player Buckner who had 9.5. In an area everyone in here knows we are weak at = pass rusher/getting pressure on the QB, how could anyone not want him back for 1 year? He is older but who cares, he is still good and bringing him back for 1 year would help the team no matter how one would look at it. Until we figure out a long term solution for pass rusher, then he is the best option for now.

Im with you on this.....  Houston seems to be a no brainer if the price is right,

and at this point is the best (for the Colts) FA DE available

 

But.....  I would lower his snap count to keep him fresh, WHILE we develop at least ONE new rookie DE

 

Im not giving up on Turay and Banagu yet either....  I thought Turay was doing better at the end of the season

 

 

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11 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

If you want to agree that Justin Houston was a starting caliber player against the first 4 teams we played, and the final 12 games he was a backup caliber player then PFF would agree with you. PFF is actually being a little more harsh on him than I was... But after looking at this in more detail... Maybe it was a slightly worse than I originally thought. 

 

PFF Player Grading Scale:
100-90 Elite 
89-85 Pro Bowler 
84-70 Starter (Justin Houston 1st quarter of 2020)
69-60 Backup (Justin Houston 2nd thru 4th quarter of 2020)
59-0 Replaceable

I've posted a lot of PFF stats over the years. If you believe the scale, then you believe Ryan Kelly isn't a starter either. Or Autry. Or Doyle. Or Pittman. Or Stewart. Or Okereke. Or Walker. Or Blackmon.

 

Heck, Leonard, our 3 time all pro LB is barely a starter lol. 

 

Houston... top 10 in pass rush win rate. Tied for 11th in DE sacks... but hey, you stand firm with your PFF lol. 

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23 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I've posted a lot of PFF stats over the years. If you believe the scale, then you believe Ryan Kelly isn't a starter either. Or Autry. Or Doyle. Or Pittman. Or Stewart. Or Okereke. Or Walker. Or Blackmon.

 

Heck, Leonard, our 3 time all pro LB is barely a starter lol. 

 

Houston... top 10 in pass rush win rate. Tied for 11th in DE sacks... but hey, you stand firm with your PFF lol. 

I have never been a fan of PFF but not a fan of a lot of systems. Take QB rtg for example. In 2012, RG3 had a QB rating of 102.4 and Andrew Luck's was 76.5. Was RG3 better? The answer is easy, no and RG3 had a very good season as a rookie but Luck threw for more yards and TD's and won more games. I remember RG3 fan boys over at ESPN were clinging to QB rtg everytime I would say Luck was better. Going by QB rtg, it would make it seem RG3 was way better, very flawed much like PFF in certain area's. Houston should be brought back, end of story unless Ballard has a miracle up his sleeve lmao . Not for 12 Mill but 8 is about right, JMO.

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9 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I have never been a fan of PFF but not a fan of a lot of systems. Take QB rtg for example. In 2012, RG3 had a QB rating of 102.4 and Andrew Lucks's was 76.5. Was RG3 better? The answer is easy, no and RG3 had a very good season as a rookie but Luck threw for more yards and TD's and won more games. I remember RG3 fan boys over at ESPN were clinging to QB rtg everytime I would say Luck was better. Going by QB rtg, it would make it seem RG3 was way better, very flawed much like PFF in certain area's. Houston should be brought back, end of story unless Ballard has a miracle up his sleeve lmao . Not for 12 Mill but 8 is about right, JMO.

 

What's funny is he hangs his hat on PFF ratings, but even PFF valuates Houston at 9M a year, and predicts he'll get 18M over 2 years.

 

I follow all the rating systems. They are indicators to me, not gospel. 

 

When PFF says one thing, but stats, ESPN analytics, and Nextgen stats say another, I typically ignore the outlier... which in this case is PFF.

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33 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

Im not against Clowney, but he is not the long term answer.

 

He might fill a role of rotational player which DOES have some value, but after reading more on the guy, the knee issue may be worse, and a reason that no one has really made a strong play for him 

 

If healthy, what he does bring is excellent run support, first and foremost

 

However, I would hate to waste 6-8M for a guy that seems to spend more time on the medical table vs the playing field 

Clowney has a better chance of being the long term answer than Houston does.  And no one is counting on Houston to be that long term answer either.  Houston is a rotational guy and Clowney might be as well.  Even if we sign Clowney do you think Ballard is going to say problem solved.  I hardly doubt it.  He will be looking for more ER help regardless.  At least with Clowney you get a younger player with more upside.  If his knee has healed and he's cleared to play I say give him a shot.  Even if he costs a little more than Houston.  Ballard is sitting in the batters box.  He's a good hitter.  Take a big swing here.  You might get the home run.  You can still draft another ER from this so so group.  BTW Houston hasn't caved in and signed like Rhodes and TY.  Must be an offer that a team leader is really not happy with.  If Ballard's not careful he could lose his chance to even resign Houston.  It's starting to look like he's willing to let him walk like Autry.  We will see. 

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10 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Clowney has a better chance of being the long term answer than Houston does.  And no one is counting on Houston to be that long term answer either.  Houston is a rotational guy and Clowney might be as well.  Even if we sign Clowney do you think Ballard is going to say problem solved.  I hardly doubt it.  He will be looking for more ER help regardless.  At least with Clowney you get a younger player with more upside.  If his knee has healed and he's cleared to play I say give him a shot.  Even if he costs a little more than Houston.  Ballard is sitting in the batters box.  He's a good hitter.  Take a big swing here.  You might get the home run.  You can still draft another ER from this so so group.  BTW Houston hasn't caved in and signed like Rhodes and TY.  Must be an offer that a team leader is really not happy with.  If Ballard's not careful he could lose his chance to even resign Houston.  It's starting to look like he's willing to let him walk like Autry.  We will see. 

 

IMO, there are like 4 guys (all aging vets) we could sign. Clowney and Houston obviously, but Smith and Ingram are still available too. Give me one of those, and a DE in the 1st please.

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2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

IMO, there are like 4 guys (all aging vets) we could sign. Clowney and Houston obviously, but Smith and Ingram are still available too. Give me one of those, and a DE in the 1st please.

I agree we need to sign one of the veteran ER's for sure.  Has to happen.  I can't see a DE with the 1st pick though.  I think the LT is most important position to fill next to QB.  ER third.  I would rather fill the LT spot at this time when the class is so strong and not have to worry about it for a decade.  JMO

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1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

I've posted a lot of PFF stats over the years. If you believe the scale, then you believe Ryan Kelly isn't a starter either. Or Autry. Or Doyle. Or Pittman. Or Stewart. Or Okereke. Or Walker. Or Blackmon.

 

Heck, Leonard, our 3 time all pro LB is barely a starter lol. 

 

Houston... top 10 in pass rush win rate. Tied for 11th in DE sacks... but hey, you stand firm with your PFF lol. 

 

I watch the games and let my eyes tell me the story. I have been involved with football since the 80's, and the value of experience is a real thing. That said, I check all types of stats to get a feel for things too. I don't always 100% agree with PFF, but I think overall they do a good job. It is interesting how they grade players. 

 

Kelly was banged up last year and that did impact his production. I actually agree that PFF was probably too harsh on him though. However according to PFF, he did post a good 3rd quarter. By the way, I predicted we would draft Kelly in the first round long before anyone else did. Took a lot of heat on this board for it too. I am not worried at all about him. He is a stud. 

 

Autry was an average (or below average) player last year. I am not sure what so many people see great in him. Don't get me wrong, he has made some nice plays for us, and he was a good pickup by Ballard. I am not upset that he is no longer with us though. 

 

Doyle was banged up a lot last year too, and PFF got it right; he had a down year. I think he will bounce back though, and he had some nice moments last year.

 

Pittman didn't really hit his stride until later in the year. Obviously an injury set him back. I expect him to play well in 2021, and I believe his PFF grade will improve too. 

 

According to PFF, Stewart actually had a good 2nd quarter of 2021. I think he played a lot better than PFF graded him. I think it is funny that his Madden rating shot up around 20 points or so after we extended him. 

 

I think Okereke struggled mostly because he was splitting time with Walker. And I also think that PFF was a little harsh on his grade. But he did struggle at times last year. That said, he ended with a better PFF rating than Walker. I think sometimes it's hard for fans to admit that a player or position on their team didn't play well. We did not get good play from our MLB's last year. It was obvious by watching the games. I just call it like I see it. Don't be surprised if we take a MLB higher than expected (if the right player is there). 

 

Blackmon had some really nice plays, but he struggled, especially when we left him single high. He took a lot of bad angles and just read the play wrong at times. He has tremendous athletic ability; there is no doubt. He will learn and he will get better. However, PFF saw him out of position a lot, and so did I. That should improve with experience. Keep in mind, we did not expect him to play as early as he did. That was never the game plan. But injuries happen, and we had to put him in there. Considering the circumstances, he more held his own, and showed us some great potential. However, it was also his first NFL season so there is a learning curve. 

 

You said that Leonard was barely a starter in the PFF rankings. That is false. The first half of the season PFF ranked Leonard near Pro Bowl level. However, his play did drop a bit throughout the season and he ended with a 78.7 rating. I think a lot of this had to do with our poor MLB play. It appeared to me that Leonard was overcompensating at times, for our weakness at MLB. Leonard was out of position to make a play more last year than I have ever seen him. And remember this is Leonard standards so it wasn't all them time, but more than I am accustomed to seeing from him. It is a team sport, and as much we want to isolate players, it is not 100% possible unless we know everything the coaches know. I am not concerned about Leonard. My track record on his skill set is well documented on this board, long before we ever drafted him. I was the first one singing his praises, and was very surprised when the Steelers didn't draft him in the first round. 

 

I think PFF is being a little harsh on Houston, but his rating did not surprise me. It is not far from what my eyes told me. 

 

It has been nice chatting/debating with you, and it might take a bit for me to respond. I have some things I need to take care of. I will probably only be in browsing (and short/quick response) mode on the board for most of the day. 

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1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

 

What's funny is he hangs his hat on PFF ratings, but even PFF valuates Houston at 9M a year, and predicts he'll get 18M over 2 years.

 

I follow all the rating systems. They are indicators to me, not gospel. 

 

When PFF says one thing, but stats, ESPN analytics, and Nextgen stats say another, I typically ignore the outlier... which in this case is PFF.

You're being mean again East.  

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1 hour ago, richard pallo said:

Clowney has a better chance of being the long term answer than Houston does.  And no one is counting on Houston to be that long term answer either.  Houston is a rotational guy and Clowney might be as well.  Even if we sign Clowney do you think Ballard is going to say problem solved.  I hardly doubt it.  He will be looking for more ER help regardless.  At least with Clowney you get a younger player with more upside.  If his knee has healed and he's cleared to play I say give him a shot.  Even if he costs a little more than Houston.  Ballard is sitting in the batters box.  He's a good hitter.  Take a big swing here.  You might get the home run.  You can still draft another ER from this so so group.  BTW Houston hasn't caved in and signed like Rhodes and TY.  Must be an offer that a team leader is really not happy with.  If Ballard's not careful he could lose his chance to even resign Houston.  It's starting to look like he's willing to let him walk like Autry.  We will see. 

You are correct NEITHER is the long term answer......   I think we need to keep bringing in DEs in the draft to try and find the RIGHT- LONG TERM answer....

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1 hour ago, MikeCurtis said:

You are correct NEITHER is the long term answer......   I think we need to keep bringing in DEs in the draft to try and find the RIGHT- LONG TERM answer....

I agree we do need to bring in DE's through the draft but I don't think this is the draft to do it especially if we stand pat and don't trade back.  Personally I wouldn't take a ER with our 1st rd or 2nd rd pick if we stay there.  Once the best couple of ER prospects get drafted early I'm staying away from them.  Too many concerns for me.  Maybe in the 3rd if we some how acquire an extra pick.  I'm going LT then WR/TE or CB with our 2nd pick.  WR is also a deep class and we could use help at WR and TE considering TY's age and contract as well as Doyles.  I would rather draft another weapon for Wentz because the odds of TY or Doyle returning are slim after this year.  I trust Ballard to find us a FA corner if need be down the road but I would draft one as well.  I see us drafting further back in the coming years so our eventual ER might just come from the trade path like Buckner.  In the mean time we sign another veteran ER and hope our current young guys develop.  

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1 hour ago, richard pallo said:

I agree we do need to bring in DE's through the draft but I don't think this is the draft to do it especially if we stand pat and don't trade back.  Personally I wouldn't take a ER with our 1st rd or 2nd rd pick if we stay there.  Once the best couple of ER prospects get drafted early I'm staying away from them.  Too many concerns for me.  Maybe in the 3rd if we some how acquire an extra pick.  I'm going LT then WR/TE or CB with our 2nd pick.  WR is also a deep class and we could use help at WR and TE considering TY's age and contract as well as Doyles.  I would rather draft another weapon for Wentz because the odds of TY or Doyle returning are slim after this year.  I trust Ballard to find us a FA corner if need be down the road but I would draft one as well.  I see us drafting further back in the coming years so our eventual ER might just come from the trade path like Buckner.  In the mean time we sign another veteran ER and hope our current young guys develop.  

Its not a knockout draft for DE, I will give you that

 

But I DO like Perkins, Sample, Smith, Basham, Weaver.....  (Among others)

 

They dont HAVE to be all pro, just help take an average pass rush up a notch or two......

 

That would help the WHOLE team defense

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2 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

Its not a knockout draft for DE, I will give you that

 

But I DO like Perkins, Sample, Smith, Basham, Weaver.....  (Among others)

 

They dont HAVE to be all pro, just help take an average pass rush up a notch or two......

 

That would help the WHOLE team defense


Correct. It’s not a great draft for 4-3 DE’s. However, of the Day 2 candidates, Basham is the one I’d be most interested in. 

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1 hour ago, BlueShoe said:


Correct. It’s not a great draft for 4-3 DE’s. However, of the Day 2 candidates, Basham is the one I’d be most interested in. 

No more Bashams needed as cousin Tarell didn’t turn out so well. Lol

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12 hours ago, richard pallo said:

I agree we need to sign one of the veteran ER's for sure.  Has to happen.  I can't see a DE with the 1st pick though.  I think the LT is most important position to fill next to QB.  ER third.  I would rather fill the LT spot at this time when the class is so strong and not have to worry about it for a decade.  JMO

There are several Ts I'd be fine with in the 2nd. It's a good year to take advantage of the depth of the class.

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12 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I watch the games and let my eyes tell me the story. I have been involved with football since the 80's, and the value of experience is a real thing. That said, I check all types of stats to get a feel for things too. I don't always 100% agree with PFF, but I think overall they do a good job. It is interesting how they grade players. 

 

Kelly was banged up last year and that did impact his production. I actually agree that PFF was probably too harsh on him though. However according to PFF, he did post a good 3rd quarter. By the way, I predicted we would draft Kelly in the first round long before anyone else did. Took a lot of heat on this board for it too. I am not worried at all about him. He is a stud. 

 

Autry was an average (or below average) player last year. I am not sure what so many people see great in him. Don't get me wrong, he has made some nice plays for us, and he was a good pickup by Ballard. I am not upset that he is no longer with us though. 

 

Doyle was banged up a lot last year too, and PFF got it right; he had a down year. I think he will bounce back though, and he had some nice moments last year.

 

Pittman didn't really hit his stride until later in the year. Obviously an injury set him back. I expect him to play well in 2021, and I believe his PFF grade will improve too. 

 

According to PFF, Stewart actually had a good 2nd quarter of 2021. I think he played a lot better than PFF graded him. I think it is funny that his Madden rating shot up around 20 points or so after we extended him. 

 

I think Okereke struggled mostly because he was splitting time with Walker. And I also think that PFF was a little harsh on his grade. But he did struggle at times last year. That said, he ended with a better PFF rating than Walker. I think sometimes it's hard for fans to admit that a player or position on their team didn't play well. We did not get good play from our MLB's last year. It was obvious by watching the games. I just call it like I see it. Don't be surprised if we take a MLB higher than expected (if the right player is there). 

 

Blackmon had some really nice plays, but he struggled, especially when we left him single high. He took a lot of bad angles and just read the play wrong at times. He has tremendous athletic ability; there is no doubt. He will learn and he will get better. However, PFF saw him out of position a lot, and so did I. That should improve with experience. Keep in mind, we did not expect him to play as early as he did. That was never the game plan. But injuries happen, and we had to put him in there. Considering the circumstances, he more held his own, and showed us some great potential. However, it was also his first NFL season so there is a learning curve. 

 

You said that Leonard was barely a starter in the PFF rankings. That is false. The first half of the season PFF ranked Leonard near Pro Bowl level. However, his play did drop a bit throughout the season and he ended with a 78.7 rating. I think a lot of this had to do with our poor MLB play. It appeared to me that Leonard was overcompensating at times, for our weakness at MLB. Leonard was out of position to make a play more last year than I have ever seen him. And remember this is Leonard standards so it wasn't all them time, but more than I am accustomed to seeing from him. It is a team sport, and as much we want to isolate players, it is not 100% possible unless we know everything the coaches know. I am not concerned about Leonard. My track record on his skill set is well documented on this board, long before we ever drafted him. I was the first one singing his praises, and was very surprised when the Steelers didn't draft him in the first round. 

 

I think PFF is being a little harsh on Houston, but his rating did not surprise me. It is not far from what my eyes told me. 

 

It has been nice chatting/debating with you, and it might take a bit for me to respond. I have some things I need to take care of. I will probably only be in browsing (and short/quick response) mode on the board for most of the day. 

Leonard ended the season with a 72.6, barely above the 70 starter threshold. 

 

Okereke didn't struggle because he split time with Walker. Oke has always struggled vs the run, and those are the snaps Walker typically was in for. This year though, he struggled vs the pass too, unlike his rook season. He also is abysmal when asked to blitz. If anything, he struggled more because his snap share increased.

 

As far as injuries are concerned, all players deal with injuries. Kelly has never graded well in PFF. He's never graded 75 or above. His grade last year was only a few points hire than 2020. 

 

At the end of the day, you were hanging your hat on PFF. PFF has never really graded OL or front 7 players well. Now your making excuses for PFF. And when presented with pure productivity stats that tell a different story, or other stat providers like ESPN analytics and Nextgen, you fall back to the eye test. Well, on field production of 8.5 sacks (11th among starting DEs) should translate to eye test lol. 

 

And back to PFF. You said Houston is not worth 9M/y... yet that is exactly where PFF valuates him (18M over 2 years). So is PFF right on their grade, but wrong on their valuation? lol.

 

And given all the choices, if you don't to resign Houston, what is your plan? Sign Clowney, who graded slightly above the 70 starter mark, but is an inferior pass rusher? Or just rely on unproven guys already on the roster.

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12 hours ago, Nickster said:

You're being mean again East.  

I don't think he realizes that I've posted quarterly and year end PFF grade threads for the entire roster lol... 

 

Those mean stats. That evil logic.

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5 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I don't think he realizes that I've posted quarterly and year end PFF grade threads for the entire roster lol... 

 

Those mean stats. That evil logic.

It’s not always what we say East.  It’s, you know , how.

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Per Rotoworld 

Ravens are scheduled to host free agent Justin Houston.

Houston, 32, hasn't received much interest in a deep free agent class, primarily keeping in touch with Indy after he notched his lowest sack total (8) since 2017 with the team as a rotational player last year. Baltimore is flush with depth but could deploy Houston exclusively on third down, making it an enticing destination for any one-year 'prove it' deal.

 

I expect movement one way or another will happen soon.

 

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11 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Leonard ended the season with a 72.6, barely above the 70 starter threshold. 

 

Okereke didn't struggle because he split time with Walker. Oke has always struggled vs the run, and those are the snaps Walker typically was in for. This year though, he struggled vs the pass too, unlike his rook season. He also is abysmal when asked to blitz. If anything, he struggled more because his snap share increased.

 

As far as injuries are concerned, all players deal with injuries. Kelly has never graded well in PFF. He's never graded 75 or above. His grade last year was only a few points hire than 2020. 

 

At the end of the day, you were hanging your hat on PFF. PFF has never really graded OL or front 7 players well. Now your making excuses for PFF. And when presented with pure productivity stats that tell a different story, or other stat providers like ESPN analytics and Nextgen, you fall back to the eye test. Well, on field production of 8.5 sacks (11th among starting DEs) should translate to eye test lol. 

 

And back to PFF. You said Houston is not worth 9M/y... yet that is exactly where PFF valuates him (18M over 2 years). So is PFF right on their grade, but wrong on their valuation? lol.

 

And given all the choices, if you don't to resign Houston, what is your plan? Sign Clowney, who graded slightly above the 70 starter mark, but is an inferior pass rusher? Or just rely on unproven guys already on the roster.

 

So you only use PFF when it supports point of view? If not then you find something else that supports your point of view. Got it. I use data (and my eyes) that helps form a conclusion; not already have a predetermined conclusion and cherry pick data that supports it. 

 

I never hung my hat on PFF. You can keep saying I did, but it doesn't make it true. PFF is one tool that is used by many people, and I have repeatedly pointed out that PFF is not a one-stop-shop. Nice try though; to change the narrative of the conversation. 

 

Justin Houston is negotiating with Baltimore. Why? To be a third down specialist. Why would teams only be looking at him to be a third down specialist? Because that is where his career is now. That's what he is, and the market is telling us that. His snap count has declined every year for the past 4 years. If he were a top tier edge rusher then he would have already been signed. I'd be very surprised if he gets 9 million a year. Anything is possible, but I think his value is more around 4-6 million per year. Some team will probably offer him more and hopefully it is not us. And he will probably only get a 1 year deal (or a 2 year deal that could easily turn into a 1 year deal.) 

 

Bottom line is Justin Houston had 3.5 sacks in the first 4 games of the season compared to only a half of a sack in his last four games of the regular season. He added a half of a sack in the playoffs. Statistically he started the season with better production than he finished. 

 

Would I sign him? Doesn't really matter what anyone on this board would do. It is up to Chis Ballard. If I were Ballard, then I would probably offer him 5 or 6 million for 1 year. That's probably what he did too. Bottom line, he is not going to line up and consistently play all 3 downs anymore. He does bring leadership and the ability to rush the quarterback on 3rd down. That has some value, but in my mind it's not worth 9 million a year. 

 

You can't manufacture DE's. As Pagano once said, they're not falling out of trees. I would look for DE's in the draft; 1st, 2nd, and 3rd day. I would continue to develop the players we have.  I would also continue to look at free agency after the draft. Logic says all of those things are in Ballard's plans. I am sure he has some targets. 

 

I am not a fan of signing Clowney, because of his injury history. Like I said, no one on this board is calling the shots. 

 

We don't know how offseason training will go this year, and reps could be limited. We need to get our younger DE's, (including possible draft picks) the most reps we can get. Turay was showing some great potential until his unfortunate leg injury. My eyes tell me that he was playing much better towards the end of the season. It would be great if he could get back to where he was before the injury. Can't bank on that but it is plausible. 

 

There is no magic wand on how to fix the issue at DE. Re-signing Justin Houston as a third down specialist doesn't even come close to fixing the issue. 

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1 hour ago, BlueShoe said:

 

So you only use PFF when it supports point of view? If not then you find something else that supports your point of view. Got it. I use data (and my eyes) that helps form a conclusion; not already have a predetermined conclusion and cherry pick data that supports it. 

Like I've said above/earlier, it's (PFF) an indicator, not gospel, and I use all indicators (ESPN Analytics, Nextgen, basic and adv stats). You're basically ignoring everything other than PFF. 

 

Quote

 

I never hung my hat on PFF. You can keep saying I did, but it doesn't make it true. PFF is one tool that is used by many people, and I have repeatedly pointed out that PFF is not a one-stop-shop. Nice try though; to change the narrative of the conversation. 

You made an assertion that was only supported by PFF, and ignored the most basics of stats. I even linked stats to opponent OL rank, and you ignored that. I'm not changing the narrative. The fact is still the same. Houston's productivity didn't drop as you assert. His production was actually better the second half of the year, and the second half opponents had a better average w/l record, and a higher OL ranking. I'm still waiting for you to explain those points away.

 

BTW, I haven't come close to changing the narrative. I've been consistent, and overly repetitive.

Quote

 

Justin Houston is negotiating with Baltimore. Why? To be a third down specialist. Why would teams only be looking at him to be a third down specialist? Because that is where his career is now. That's what he is, and the market is telling us that. His snap count has declined every year for the past 4 years. If he were a top tier edge rusher then he would have already been signed. I'd be very surprised if he gets 9 million a year. Anything is possible, but I think his value is more around 4-6 million per year. Some team will probably offer him more and hopefully it is not us. And he will probably only get a 1 year deal (or a 2 year deal that could easily turn into a 1 year deal.) 

LOL...

 

First of all, Houston isn't visiting the Ravens until Tuesday. Doubt they are negotiating anything at all yet. He's also supposed to visit the Texans. Baltimore wouldn't sign him till after the draft anyway, when it won't count against their comp picks.

 

Second... Houston was a rotational guy for us as well. He played less than 60% of the snaps. Nobody is arguing that Houston is a young or 3 down guy. 

 

 

Quote

 

Bottom line is Justin Houston had 3.5 sacks in the first 4 games of the season compared to only a half of a sack in his last four games of the regular season. He added a half of a sack in the playoffs. Statistically he started the season with better production than he finished. 

lol.. again....

 

2 of the teams we played the first 4 games WERE THE 2 WORST TEAMS IN THE NFL.

and 

None of the first four teams had OLs ranked better than 20th.

 

And again... the last half of the season he had more production, vs better teams, and better OLs.

 

And.... he had 3 pressures vs Buffalo in his last game , the 10th best OL in the league, which is at minimum 10 spots better than any team we played in the first four weeks.

 

And... if you want to look just at his last 4 games and his first four games..... , he had 9 total pressures last four, the same as his pressure total in the first four... 

 

How can you logically dismiss OL ranking in this discussion? or quality of opponent? I get it, PFF... and your eyes.. lol

Quote

 

Would I sign him? Doesn't really matter what anyone on this board would do. It is up to Chis Ballard. If I were Ballard, then I would probably offer him 5 or 6 million for 1 year. That's probably what he did too. Bottom line, he is not going to line up and consistently play all 3 downs anymore. He does bring leadership and the ability to rush the quarterback on 3rd down. That has some value, but in my mind it's not worth 9 million a year. 

 

You can't manufacture DE's. As Pagano once said, they're not falling out of trees. I would look for DE's in the draft; 1st, 2nd, and 3rd day. I would continue to develop the players we have.  I would also continue to look at free agency after the draft. Logic says all of those things are in Ballard's plans. I am sure he has some targets. 

 

I am not a fan of signing Clowney, because of his injury history. Like I said, no one on this board is calling the shots. 

 

We don't know how offseason training will go this year, and reps could be limited. We need to get our younger DE's, (including possible draft picks) the most reps we can get. Turay was showing some great potential until his unfortunate leg injury. My eyes tell me that he was playing much better towards the end of the season. It would be great if he could get back to where he was before the injury. Can't bank on that but it is plausible. 

 

There is no magic wand on how to fix the issue at DE. Re-signing Justin Houston as a third down specialist doesn't even come close to fixing the issue. 

 

If signing Houston doesn't come close to fixing the DE issue (by the way, nobody is saying that's all we need to do), not signing him simply makes the DE issue worse. He and Clownery are the best FAs available/left, so one has to assume you're good with rolling the dice on Rochelle, Turay, Banogu, etc., and taking a guy in the draft that will need a year or two. Got it. Good plan.

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I am not into stats either. I like the eye test and really only care if  we win or lose. Not into all the finer details. Stats are only a small portion of determining if someone is good at football. It’s way to black and white for me. So many other things determine the success of a player.

 

Ballard wants to get younger on the line but I really think we need to bring back Houston. 

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8 hours ago, cjrichard said:

Per Rotoworld 

Ravens are scheduled to host free agent Justin Houston.

Houston, 32, hasn't received much interest in a deep free agent class, primarily keeping in touch with Indy after he notched his lowest sack total (8) since 2017 with the team as a rotational player last year. Baltimore is flush with depth but could deploy Houston exclusively on third down, making it an enticing destination for any one-year 'prove it' deal.

 

I expect movement one way or another will happen soon.

 

I do as well. I am hopeful that he re-signs with the Colts though.

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