Trading down - PFN Mock Draft Simulator

[RNGDShobby]

Thought I'd run a bunch of simulations on PFN Mock Draft and see what/who we can get by trading down later into the 1st round.
Obviously the players available will be up in the air but some interesting results.

Players available listed first and then offers I received.

Vera Tucker, Paye, Cosmi, Ossai, Newsome II
21 <-> 28 & 60
21 & 127 <-> 27 & 58

Darrisaw, Ojulari, Ossai, Newsome II
21 <-> 29, Packers ‘22 2nd

Pitts, JOK, Cosmi, Ossai - note I wouldn't take any of these trades and would 100% draft Pitts.
21 <-> 26, Browns ‘22 2nd
21 & 248 <-> 24 & 87
21 & 165 <-> 28 & 60 Countered with no 165 and accepted.

Parsons, JOK, Paye, Cosmi, Ossai, Newsome II, Mayfield, Jenkins
21 <-> 26, 91 (Accepted and was able to pick Paye)

Ojulari, Paye, Cosmi, Ossai, Newsome II, Mayfield, Jenkins
21 & 127 <-> 22, Vikings ’22 2nd

Farley, Vera-Tucker, Paye, Cosmi, Newsome II, Mayfield, Jenkins
21 <-> 29, Packers ’22 2nd (accepted and selected Cosmi)

Darrisaw, Parsons, Vera-Tucker, Paye, Cosmi, Ossai, Mayfield, Jenkins
21 & 127 <-> 29, 62, Packers ’22 2nd, (Accepted and took Cosmi)
21 & 127 <-> 26, 59  (after accepting above, options were Cosmi, Ossai, Mayfield)

[MPStack]

[BluesGirl]

Getting Pitts would be a home run.   Not much possibility of it happening though.  

[OhioColt]

Here was my best trading on PFF:

 

IND trades back R1 with NYJ.  NYJ gets 21 and 206.  IND gets 23, 146, 186

IND trades back R1 with GB.  GB gets 23 via NYJ and 186 via NYJ.  IND gets 29 and 92

IND trades back R3 with BAL. BAL gets 92 via GB. IND gets 131 and 210

IND trades back R4 with DEN.  DEN gets 131 via BAL.  IND gets 152 and 191

 

Draft Picks:

 

29 

54 

127 

146 

152 

165 

191

210

248

[TheMose]

Only way Pitts drops that far is if its released that he was the Zodiac Killer all this time

[CoachLite]

On 3/29/2021 at 4:37 PM, RNGDShobby said:

Thought I'd run a bunch of simulations on PFN Mock Draft and see what/who we can get by trading down later into the 1st round.
Obviously the players available will be up in the air but some interesting results.
 

Please! Don't get me started! I like my life, with its free time. Many here are not familiar with the word "combinatorics" - the frustratingly complex game of "what-if". Before I retired, it is what I did for a living on big, honkin' computers. I figure we'll have all the answers by the first of May.

[chad72]

Yes, it is a fun exercise @RNGDShobby on that site, I like doing that too. 

 

This is what I ended up with several trade downs

 

37. Jayson Oweh, DE, Penn State

54. Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame

95. Payton Turner, DE, Houston

104. Chazz Surratt, LB, North Carolina

127. Jaelon Darden, WR, North Texas

137. Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford

150. Divine Deablo, S, Virginia Tech

156. Tre McKitty, TE, Georgia

165. Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest

189. Jonathan Marshall, DT, Arkansas

206. Justin Hilliard, LB, Ohio State

[stitches]

On 3/30/2021 at 1:37 AM, RNGDShobby said:

Thought I'd run a bunch of simulations on PFN Mock Draft and see what/who we can get by trading down later into the 1st round.
Obviously the players available will be up in the air but some interesting results.

Players available listed first and then offers I received.

Vera Tucker, Paye, Cosmi, Ossai, Newsome II
21 <-> 28 & 60
21 & 127 <-> 27 & 58

The best option is probably one of the trades, but I would definitely be tempted to just pick Paye here. 

 

On 3/30/2021 at 1:37 AM, RNGDShobby said:

Darrisaw, Ojulari, Ossai, Newsome II
21 <-> 29, Packers ‘22 2nd

Trade.

On 3/30/2021 at 1:37 AM, RNGDShobby said:

Pitts, JOK, Cosmi, Ossai - note I wouldn't take any of these trades and would 100% draft Pitts.
21 <-> 26, Browns ‘22 2nd
21 & 248 <-> 24 & 87
21 & 165 <-> 28 & 60 Countered with no 165 and accepted.

Pitts. 

On 3/30/2021 at 1:37 AM, RNGDShobby said:

Parsons, JOK, Paye, Cosmi, Ossai, Newsome II, Mayfield, Jenkins
21 <-> 26, 91 (Accepted and was able to pick Paye)

Trade or Paye

On 3/30/2021 at 1:37 AM, RNGDShobby said:

Ojulari, Paye, Cosmi, Ossai, Newsome II, Mayfield, Jenkins
21 & 127 <-> 22, Vikings ’22 2nd

Trade or Paye

On 3/30/2021 at 1:37 AM, RNGDShobby said:

 

Farley, Vera-Tucker, Paye, Cosmi, Newsome II, Mayfield, Jenkins
21 <-> 29, Packers ’22 2nd (accepted and selected Cosmi)

Farley or Paye or trade

On 3/30/2021 at 1:37 AM, RNGDShobby said:

Darrisaw, Parsons, Vera-Tucker, Paye, Cosmi, Ossai, Mayfield, Jenkins
21 & 127 <-> 29, 62, Packers ’22 2nd, (Accepted and took Cosmi)
21 & 127 <-> 26, 59  (after accepting above, options were Cosmi, Ossai, Mayfield)

Paye or Packers trade. 

[OhioColt]

10 hours ago, chad72 said:

Yes, it is a fun exercise @RNGDShobby on that site, I like doing that too. 

 

This is what I ended up with several trade downs

 

37. Jayson Oweh, DE, Penn State

54. Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame

95. Payton Turner, DE, Houston

104. Chazz Surratt, LB, North Carolina

127. Jaelon Darden, WR, North Texas

137. Paulson Adebo, CB, Stanford

150. Divine Deablo, S, Virginia Tech

156. Tre McKitty, TE, Georgia

165. Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest

189. Jonathan Marshall, DT, Arkansas

206. Justin Hilliard, LB, Ohio State

Now that is an impressive haul of draft picks.  Honestly how many did you have to override the system and force trades?

[chad72]

14 minutes ago, OhioColt said:

Now that is an impressive haul of draft picks.  Honestly how many did you have to override the system and force trades?

First one I initiated with the Eagles and then as my picks got closer, I got more trade offers (the system does that) and I kept piling them  

[OhioColt]

5 hours ago, chad72 said:

First one I initiated with the Eagles and then as my picks got closer, I got more trade offers (the system does that) and I kept piling them  

I realize we have the option to force trades or they like the proposed trade.  I tried to recreate at best could do with what you had done but had to force all my trades and was honest using Draftek trade chart.  Was still able to come up with 11 draft picks.

 

IND trades back with PHI.  PHI gets 21.  IND gets 37, 70, and 150

 

IND trades back with TB.  TB gets 70.  IND get 95 and 2022 R3P (insurance plan/added trade leverage since automatically losing 2022 2nd round pick, potentially a first for Wentz trade.  Since TB resigned key players expect them to be heavy favorites to repeat/win Super Bowl in 2022)

 

IND trades back with BAL.  BAL gets 96.  IND gets 104, 171, and 184 owe 4 to BaL

 

IND trades back with CIN.  CIN gets 171via BAL.  IND gets 190 and 202 (from MIA).  Figured that CIN-BAL rivalry would entice CIN to move up take BAL original pick.

 

DRAFT

 

37 via PHI 

54 

104 via BAL 

127 

150 via PHI 

165 

184 via BAL

190 via CIN 

202 via MIA/CIN 

206 

248 

[chad72]

5 hours ago, OhioColt said:

I realize we have the option to force trades or they like the proposed trade.  I tried to recreate at best could do with what you had done but had to force all my trades and was honest using Draftek trade chart.  Was still able to come up with 11 draft picks.

 

IND trades back with PHI.  PHI gets 21.  IND gets 37, 70, and 150

 

IND trades back with TB.  TB gets 70.  IND get 95 and 2022 R3P (insurance plan/added trade leverage since automatically losing 2022 2nd round pick, potentially a first for Wentz trade.  Since TB resigned key players expect them to be heavy favorites to repeat/win Super Bowl in 2022)

 

IND trades back with BAL.  BAL gets 96.  IND gets 104, 171, and 184 owe 4 to BaL

 

IND trades back with CIN.  CIN gets 171via BAL.  IND gets 190 and 202 (from MIA).  Figured that CIN-BAL rivalry would entice CIN to move up take BAL original pick.

 

DRAFT

 

37 via PHI 

54 

104 via BAL 

127 

150 via PHI 

165 

184 via BAL

190 via CIN 

202 via MIA/CIN 

206 

248 

Nicely done. 
 

I rejected all future year trades that the system offered me. Then the system adapted and I  did not have any picks beyond any initial pick in the 200s. So your haul of 11 picks plus future picks might actually be better.
 

I did not rely on any draft chart, if I was dropping a few spots and gaining a fourth or fifth rounder, I just took it once my traded pick was around the 3rd round because at that point, quantity mattered just as much as quality.  

[OhioColt]

17 hours ago, chad72 said:

Nicely done. 
 

I rejected all future year trades that the system offered me. Then the system adapted and I  did not have any picks beyond any initial pick in the 200s. So your haul of 11 picks plus future picks might actually be better.
 

I did not rely on any draft chart, if I was dropping a few spots and gaining a fourth or fifth rounder, I just took it once my traded pick was around the 3rd round because at that point, quantity mattered just as much as quality.  

Too much free time at work but enjoy expanding on your original idea.  Did have to bribe a few teams to make things happen but using the following chart am able to be realistic about the trades within a +/- https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

 

IND trades back with PHI.  PHI gets 21.  IND gets 37, 70, and 150

IND trades back with TB.  TB gets 70.  IND get 95 and 2022 R3P 

IND trades back with BAL.  BAL gets 95 and 206.  IND gets 104 and 131

IND trades back with CIN.  CIN gets 131 via BAL.  IND gets 149 and 202 (from MIA)

IND trades back with NYG.  NYG gets 149 via CIN.  IND gets 196 and 2022 R6P

IND trade back with SF.  SF gets 196 and 2022 R6P via NYG.  IND gets 230 and 2022 R5P

 

DRAFT

 

37 via PHI LT Liam Eichenberg

54 Edge Payton Turner / LB Nick Bolton / TE Pat Freiermuth

104 via BAL LB Monty Rice / CB Tay Gowan / CB Benjamin St-Juste / WR Nico Collins / CB Israel Mukamu

127 CB Benjamin St-Juste

150 via PHI WR Simi Fehoko / WR Dax Milne / T D’Ante Smith / S Damar Hamlin

165 CB Trill Williams / Edge Chauncey Golston

190 via CIN G David Moore

202 via MIA/CIN RB Elijah Mitchell / Edge Adetokunbo Ogundeji

230 via SF CB deommodore Lenoir

248 WR Josh Imatorbhebhe / G Tommy Kraemer

 

Future 2022 Draft Picks

R3P via TB

R5P via SF (traded R6P via NYG)

 

Bottom line able to get 10 draft picks plus 2 futures.  Not a bad draft class with some multiple options shown plus added compensation for losing next year's second (potentially first) round draft pick.

[OhioColt]

What can you say I just enjoying tinkering with the trades...

 

IND trades back with PHI.  PHI gets 21.  IND gets 37, 70, and 150 - force

IND trades back with TB.  TB gets 70.  IND get 95 and 2022 R3P - Y

IND trades back with NYJ.  NYJ gets 95 and 206 (not happy so add 248).  IND gets 107, 146, and 186 – Y

IND trades back with JAX.  JAX gets 150 via PHI.  IND gets 170 and 2022 R6P (6pts) – Y

IND trades back with GB.  GB gets 170 via CLV.  IND gets 173 and 256 - Y

IND trades back with CHI.  CHI gets 186.  IND gets 204 and 208 via SEA - Y

IND trades back with NO.  NO gets 208 via SEA/CHI.  IND gets 218 comp and 229 via JAX, and 255 - Y

 

DRAFT

 

37 via PHI

54 

107 via NYJ 

127 

146 via NYJ 

165 

173 via GB 

204 

218 via NO (comp) 

229 via JAX/NO

255 via NO 

256 via GB 

 

Future 2022 Draft Picks

R3P via TB

R6P via JAX

 

12 draft picks this year and 2 futures would be impressive to say the least if the Club somehow pulled this off

[chad72]

4 hours ago, OhioColt said:

What can you say I just enjoying tinkering with the trades...

 

IND trades back with PHI.  PHI gets 21.  IND gets 37, 70, and 150 - force

IND trades back with TB.  TB gets 70.  IND get 95 and 2022 R3P - Y

IND trades back with NYJ.  NYJ gets 95 and 206 (not happy so add 248).  IND gets 107, 146, and 186 – Y

IND trades back with JAX.  JAX gets 150 via PHI.  IND gets 170 and 2022 R6P (6pts) – Y

IND trades back with GB.  GB gets 170 via CLV.  IND gets 173 and 256 - Y

IND trades back with CHI.  CHI gets 186.  IND gets 204 and 208 via SEA - Y

IND trades back with NO.  NO gets 208 via SEA/CHI.  IND gets 218 comp and 229 via JAX, and 255 - Y

 

DRAFT

 

37 via PHI

54 

107 via NYJ 

127 

146 via NYJ 

165 

173 via GB 

204 

218 via NO (comp) 

229 via JAX/NO

255 via NO 

256 via GB 

 

Future 2022 Draft Picks

R3P via TB

R6P via JAX

 

12 draft picks this year and 2 futures would be impressive to say the least if the Club somehow pulled this off

 

Looks like when we both have the time, we like doing this stuff, lol.

 

You should do one without trading back the 1st and you will still end up with a nice haul. That is, of course, if you have the time.