Colts still in talks with Houston and other Edge Rushers

[w87r]

2 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I'm sure you check this several times every day,  so I don't know that I'm about to tell you anything you don't already know...   

 

But.....     I just double checked the cap numbers.   I was curious based on your guesstimate. 

 

OverTheCap has us 2nd overall with $30.250, while Spotrac has us 5th at $27.250.   Both numbers roughly.   

 

And, interestingly enough,  both numbers were much larger when I woke up early today, 10-11a your time.    So, the daily reset figure happens after that.    Don't know if it's noon your time,  or 1p, or if it varies day to day?    I just know that early this morning the numbers were bigger.

 

I think for the first time in Ballard's time with the Colts we're going to be using much, much more of our cap space than ever before.    Typically we have left $50-$100m on the table as we rebuild.    Now,  I'm going to guess roughly $6-10m this year.

With the lower cap number, we're living in new neighborhood and this is what you have to do.

 

Yeah, they were higher when I looked earlier as well. Rhodes hadn't been figured in at that point, which now it has. I tried to reflect his contract in my estimates I posted.

 

Funny enough, my guesstimate split the 2 numbers.  You have them flip flopped though. Not that, that matters. I knew what you meant.

 

OtC has us at $27.2

Spotrac has us at $30.2

 

 

As per our conversation last week, I would go with the OtC number of $27m in cap space, for reasons mentioned in that post last week.(or when ever it was).

 

 

Edit:  yeah we will be going into the season with a lot less money than usual.

[EastStreet]

24 minutes ago, w87r said:

Yeah, they were higher when I looked earlier as well. Rhodes hadn't been figured in at that point, which now it has. I tried to reflect his contract in my estimates I posted.

 

Funny enough, my guesstimate split the 2 numbers.  You have them flip flopped though. Not that, that matters. I knew what you meant.

 

OtC has us at $27.2

Spotrac has us at $30.2

 

 

As per our conversation last week, I would go with the OtC number of $27m in cap space, for reasons mentioned in that post last week.(or when ever it was).

 

 

Edit:  yeah we will be going into the season with a lot less money than usual.

OTC has higher cap hits for several guys. TY, Stewart, Glow, ++

For example, ST shows TY as 8 flat, OTC shows 8.75

[w87r]

Just now, EastStreet said:

OTC has higher cap hits for several guys. TY, Stewart, Glow, ++

For example, ST shows TY as 8 flat, OTC shows 8.75

Yeah I broke it down on a different thread last week. Spotrac also has Tremon Smith listed for $1.025m for Colts(he signed with Texans)

 

Spotrac doesn't have Stallworth or Dulins contracts either.

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, w87r said:

Yeah I broke it down on a different thread last week. Spotrac also has Tremon Smith listed for $1.025m for Colts(he signed with Texans)

 

Spotrac doesn't have Stallworth or Dulins contracts either.

I always take the lower number lol. 

And I noticed the absence of Stallworth and Dulin too. I figured they would be the first ones added since the extension happened right after the season. 

Strange.. 

[w87r]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

I always take the lower number lol. 

And I noticed the absence of Stallworth and Dulin too. I figured they would be the first ones added since the extension happened right after the season. 

Strange.. 

Exactly my thoughts.(Stallworth and Dulin reported 1st)

 

 

I've always been avid Spotrac guy, some things this year has lead to me leaning toward OtC more.

 

 

Maybe should just go with my $28-$29m?

 

That $750k from TY,  not sure where that come a from? His contract seemed to be pretty straight forward at $8m with incentives.

[EastStreet]

5 minutes ago, w87r said:

Exactly my thoughts.(Stallworth and Dulin reported 1st)

 

I've always been avid Spotrac guy, some things this year has lead to me leaning toward OtC more.

 

Maybe should just go with my $28-$29m?

 

That $750k from TY,  not sure where that come a from? His contract seemed to be pretty straight forward at $8m with incentives.

I like ST a lot better than OTC. ST has better detail and I love the cut feature, as well as the breakdown on the far right. 

 

My guess on TY is that they are guestimating his incentives at 37.5%. For instance, 60 receptions for 700 would get him 8.75

[BProland85]

9 hours ago, EastStreet said:

If I were the GM lol, I'd sign Houston and draft Rousseau in the first. I'd sign Vil or Okunk and draft a T in the 2nd.

Agreed. I would also add Azeez Ojulari in that mix at DE round 1. He could certainly play DE in a 4-3.

[EastStreet]

Just now, BProland85 said:

Agreed. I would also add Azeez Ojulari in that mix at DE round 1. He could certainly play DE in a 4-3.

IMO, more a 3-4 fit at 6-2/245, and was a jack in UGA's 3-4

[w87r]

28 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I like ST a lot better than OTC. ST has better detail and I love the cut feature, as well as the breakdown on the far right. 

 

My guess on TY is that they are guestimating his incentives at 37.5%. For instance, 60 receptions for 700 would get him 8.75

Same, I still prefer Spotrac for the detail like you said. Just a few things have irked me a little this year.(Tremon Smith thing, lack of Stallworth/Dulin). OtC just seems to be a little more accurate right now.

 

 

As far as TY, those incentives are LTBE so that makes sense.

 

That is a little gray area though. (LTBE/NLTBE).

 

Although he only reached 1 of those numbers(700yds) last year but not the other(60rec). So it should actually be at $8.5m I would think?

 

It doesn't matter to much though, just thinking out loud.

[EastStreet]

5 minutes ago, w87r said:

Same, I still prefer Spotrac for the detail like you said. Just a few things have irked me a little this year.(Tremon Smith thing, lack of Stallworth/Dulin). OtC just seems to be a little more accurate right now.

 

 

As far as TY, those incentives are LTBE so that makes sense.

 

That is a little gray area though. (LTBE/NLTBE).

 

Although he only reached 1 of those numbers(700yds) last year but not the other(60rec). So it should actually be at $8.5m I would think?

 

It doesn't matter to much though, just thinking out loud.

Do the teams have to classify each tier of the incentive as LT or NLT? If they do, that would make it easy. Or if not, perhaps ST just applies a standard formula.

[NewColtsFan]

17 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

Agreed. I would also add Azeez Ojulari in that mix at DE round 1. He could certainly play DE in a 4-3.

You keep trying to pound a square peg into a round hole.   I would think if you went roster by roster, you’d find maybe one hand full of 4-3 DE’s at that size in the entire NFL.   And of them, most are just not very successful.  Ojulari is currently a 3-4 OLB. 

[w87r]

15 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Do the teams have to classify each tier of the incentive as LT or NLT? If they do, that would make it easy. Or if not, perhaps ST just applies a standard formula.

My take on it, is it usually resorts to prior season production. Like I said it is a little gray area though.

 

Here is my take on it.

 

TY -2019 stats-

56rec 762yds

 

Incentive levels 2020:

60,70 rec - $250k each level

80 rec - $500k

 

600,700,800,900 yds - $250k each level

 

So since TY only had 56 catches last year, neither one of those levels would be LTBE?

 

Since he had over 700yds last year, he would hit $500k on that incentive as LTBE?

 

$500k - LTBE

$1.5m NLTBE

 

 

Would like to get @Superman thoughts on this.

 

This is my take on it though.

[EastStreet]

4 minutes ago, w87r said:

My take on it, is it usually resorts to prior season production. Like I said it is a little gray area though.

 

Here is my take on it.

 

TY -2019 stats-

56rec 762yds

 

Incentive levels 2020:

60,70 rec - $250k each level

80 rec - $500k

 

600,700,800,900 yds - $250k each level

 

So since TY only had 56 catches last year, neither one of those would be LTBE

 

Since he had over 700yds last year, he would hit $500k on that incentive as LTBE?

 

$500k - LTBE

$1.5m NTLBE

 

 

Would like to get @Superman thoughts on this.

 

This is my take on it though.

I just googled and read a few things, all of which support your above.

The only thing I can speculate, is that they pro-rate, and assume a player plays 16 games. Had he played 16 with his avg, he would have hit 60 (rounded up). OR, they could have factored in 17 games this coming year and used that to prorate.

[richard pallo]

After seeing what Jaron Reed just signed for with the Chiefs; 1 year 5m guaranteed with a max of 7m I would think the remaining ER's would be quick to sign this week.  He 's an excellent player, 28 years old in his prime who was fine with this cheap one year prove it deal.  This shouldn't be too hard for Ballard to get the ER he wants.  I hope he moves quickly because I think a few of them will sign with a team this week.  

[w87r]

5 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I just googled and read a few things, all of which support your above.

The only thing I can speculate, is that they pro-rate, and assume a player plays 16 games. Had he played 16 with his avg, he would have hit 60 (rounded up). OR, they could have factored in 17 games this coming year and used that to prorate.

Yeah, with 17 games(most likely), good chance he hits those numbers, pending health. To assume TY is going to play 16/17 games is very speculative.

 

Definitely a gray area though, as speculation shouldn't be included. Should be raw numbers, but very inconsequential in grand scheme of things.

[w87r]

7 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

After seeing what Jaron Reed just signed for with the Chiefs; 1 year 5m guaranteed with a max of 7m I would think the remaining ER's would be quick to sign this week.  He 's an excellent player, 28 years old in his prime who was fine with this cheap one year prove it deal.  This shouldn't be too hard for Ballard to get the ER he wants.  I hope he moves quickly because I think a few of them will sign with a team this week.  

I imagine if we hear anything on our front this week, it would be a Houston signing.

 

I would be good with any news on that front though.

[EastStreet]

4 minutes ago, w87r said:

Yeah, with 17 games(most likely), good chance he hits those numbers, pending health. To assume TY is going to play 16/17 games is very speculative.

 

Definitely a gray area though, as speculation shouldn't be included. Should be raw numbers, but very inconsequential in grand scheme of things.

I'm happy with the logic "last year+1 game average" = LTBE

I think that's fair. I'd rather it be factored into 2021 than pushed to 22 anyway.

[BProland85]

23 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

You keep trying to pound a square peg into a round hole.   I would think if you went roster by roster, you’d find maybe one hand full of 4-3 DE’s at that size in the entire NFL.   And of them, most are just not very successful.  Ojulari is currently a 3-4 OLB. 

Didnt Carl Lawson play in a 4-3 in Cincy? Lawson is 6-2, 260 so Ojulari could most definitely also play at that size. 
 

I just go based off of who are the best pure pass rushers. Just because someone like Jaelen Philips may have better length to play DE in a 3-4, Ojulari is the better pure pass rusher who I believe could still succeed at his size once he added a little more weight. Oh and Freeney and Mathis weren’t exactly long DEs by any stretch either. 

[EastStreet]

Just now, w87r said:

I imagine if we hear anything on our front this week, it would be a Houston signing.

 

I would be good with any news on that front though.

 

10 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

After seeing what Jaron Reed just signed for with the Chiefs; 1 year 5m guaranteed with a max of 7m I would think the remaining ER's would be quick to sign this week.  He 's an excellent player, 28 years old in his prime who was fine with this cheap one year prove it deal.  This shouldn't be too hard for Ballard to get the ER he wants.  I hope he moves quickly because I think a few of them will sign with a team this week.  

 

I also saw some articles suggesting that the T market has now flattened, and Vil may now be looking at the 6-10 range, instead of the 15ish projected pre-FA. And Okung would be in the same boat if accurate. 

 

So sign me up for a DE + LT in the 6-8 range.

[w87r]

8 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I'm happy with the logic "last year+1 game average" = LTBE

I think that's fair. I'd rather it be factored into 2021 than pushed to 22 anyway.

Yeah, I agree.

 

As long as it is a per game average and not based on 16 games. Although it would end up being 16 games(15 last year + 1 for 17th game this year). Saying that though, that would likely push him to 60 rec 800yd levels, and $1m LTBE.

 

 

EDIT: actually with those projections he would be in at 59 rec and 800yds = $750k LTBE.

[w87r]

3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

 

I also saw some articles suggesting that the T market has now flattened, and Vil may now be looking at the 6-10 range, instead of the 15ish projected pre-FA. And Okung would be in the same boat if accurate. 

 

So sign me up for a DE + LT in the 6-8 range.

[EastStreet]

23 minutes ago, w87r said:

Boom brother. Make the call to Ballard and get it done.

[superrep1967]

3 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I would not doubt if his sack total decreased this year. 

That does not change the fact that your earlier assessment about last year's pass rush was incorrect.

 

And... if you want sack and pressure numbers to go up, you should be hoping for Flus to change his approach a bit. And it really didn't help that when we did blitz, one of our starting LBers (Oke) was almost completely worthless blitzing. Leonard, and Walker (who lost snaps to Oke) were much better. Now Walker is gone... 

You make good points we do need to blitz more but Flus refuses to do it very much maybe I'm expecting to much. 

[EastStreet]

21 minutes ago, superrep1967 said:

You make good points we do need to blitz more but Flus refuses to do it very much maybe I'm expecting to much. 

I just don't understand how Flus/Reich/Ballard can ignore the numbers. Especially after adding Buckner last year. A team that rushes 4 on a very very predictable basis is simply not going to be dynamic in the pass rush department. Then add in our very soft zone. We have to be the most conservative defense in the league. And teams ate us up the second half of the season. 

 

You're not expecting too much. I expect more too. 

[BluesGirl]

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

I just don't understand how Flus/Reich/Ballard can ignore the numbers. Especially after adding Buckner last year. A team that rushes 4 on a very very predictable basis is simply not going to be dynamic in the pass rush department. Then add in our very soft zone. We have to be the most conservative defense in the league. And teams ate us up the second half of the season. 

 

You're not expecting too much. I expect more too. 

Cover 2 defense is set up to get pressure using the front 4 and allowing the back 7 to cover.   Its not strange to me to not see a lot of blitzing.  It's not what this D is designed to do.       When Dungy was here we didn't blitz much either.  Obviously the pressure came from Freeney and Mathis which is what we are lacking. 

 

Another reason I rank ER over LT as a need. Not that I believe it needs to be forced at a particular pick like 21 or 54.  When we are on the clock if the BPA is an ER then take him, But if its a CB or TE then that needs to be the pick    And I still want Houston resigned.   

[NewColtsFan]

3 hours ago, BProland85 said:

Didnt Carl Lawson play in a 4-3 in Cincy? Lawson is 6-2, 260 so Ojulari could most definitely also play at that size. 
 

I just go based off of who are the best pure pass rushers. Just because someone like Jaelen Philips may have better length to play DE in a 3-4, Ojulari is the better pure pass rusher who I believe could still succeed at his size once he added a little more weight. Oh and Freeney and Mathis weren’t exactly long DEs by any stretch either. 

There are exceptions to every rule. 
 

Freeney and Mathis were drafted at the beginning of the Polian era, nearly 20 years ago.  Not sure why you’d think anything that happened 20 years ago is relevant today.

 

By now, all of should know the traits Ballard looks for.   And while Ojulari has the speed, quickness and athleticism Ballard likes, he also covets long, super fast first step.   So put Ojulari speed inside the body of Phillips or Rousseau. 

 

As for putting on weight...   it’s not always easy for speed guys who are freaky athletes to just out in 15 pounds and stay the same.   Some can.  But not everyone.   If it was just that easy to gain weight and not lose a step then everyone would do it. 
 

I’m not saying the Colts drafting him could 100 percent never happen.  I try not to use absolutes like never and always.   But almost no one here is talking about Ojulari as an option for us.   When most people mention him, it’s to say he’s NOT a scheme fit and NOT an option.  
 

Just food for thought. 

[Superman]

4 hours ago, w87r said:

My take on it, is it usually resorts to prior season production. Like I said it is a little gray area though.

 

Here is my take on it.

 

TY -2019 stats-

56rec 762yds

 

Incentive levels 2020:

60,70 rec - $250k each level

80 rec - $500k

 

600,700,800,900 yds - $250k each level

 

So since TY only had 56 catches last year, neither one of those levels would be LTBE?

 

Since he had over 700yds last year, he would hit $500k on that incentive as LTBE?

 

$500k - LTBE

$1.5m NLTBE

 

 

Would like to get @Superman thoughts on this.

 

This is my take on it though.

 

I haven't looked at this in the new CBA, but the previous rule was if a player hit the incentive in the previous season, it would be considered likely to be earned. LTBE counts against the cap proactively, NLTBE is a retroactive adjustment. The only prorated incentives would be per game bonuses. 

[w87r]

2 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I haven't looked at this in the new CBA, but the previous rule was if a player hit the incentive in the previous season, it would be considered likely to be earned. LTBE counts against the cap proactively, NLTBE is a retroactive adjustment. The only prorated incentives would be per game bonuses. 

Yeah, that's my current read on it. Thanks.

[shasta519]

12 hours ago, EastStreet said:

The pass rush itself was not terrible. We were 12th in total sacks. 

 

If anything, our issue is scheme, or play calling. We blitz at a near league low (17ish%). The league median is about 30%.. Top of the league is 40+%

 

The fact we blitz the 2nd least, but are almost top 10 in sacks, is actually pretty impressive.

 

On draft order, you're complaining about how our pass rush sucks, and want to give it less draft help than an OL who already has 3 pro bowl players. You're logic here is pretty rough.

It seems impressive until you look at the game logs. 

The Colts got their sacks in bunches against really bad OLs, including two OLs in their own division (that produced the 2nd and 3rd worst records this past seasons).

 

Nearly 2/3 of their team sacks came in (5) specific games (1x DET, 2x HOU, 2x JAC)...all bottom tier OLs (and in the case of HOU and JAC...bottom 5).

 

Not that they did this intentionally, but they essentially padded their pass rushing stats in these games. Houston, Autry and Buckner all followed this trend  as well. 

 

Not addressing it seems like it might backfire. Letting 2/3 best pass rushers go and not replace them seems like it will really backfire.

 

They also won’t have that ridiculously easy schedule again. So I would sign (2) of these vets AND draft Paye.

[hoosierhawk]

18 hours ago, EastStreet said:

His stats were actually a tiny bit down this year over his 2019 stats. He's a solid depth guy though. He's likely low priority. And if they are trying to resign Houston, and draft a DE, he might not be in the cards at all.

Don't know if his stats were down but felt he never took a play off when he was on the field and hustled constantly. Only 26 and I feel in spite of Stats that he has improved year to year. Might just be my perception but feel he has upside.

[NorthernColt]

11 hours ago, BProland85 said:

Didnt Carl Lawson play in a 4-3 in Cincy? Lawson is 6-2, 260 so Ojulari could most definitely also play at that size. 
 

I just go based off of who are the best pure pass rushers. Just because someone like Jaelen Philips may have better length to play DE in a 3-4, Ojulari is the better pure pass rusher who I believe could still succeed at his size once he added a little more weight. Oh and Freeney and Mathis weren’t exactly long DEs by any stretch either. 

Don't get me wrong, I like Ojulari as well, but the bolded is just wrong. Phillips is argubably the most polished pass rusher in the entire class. If he didnt have the concussion concerns he'd easily be DE1

[indyagent17]

I say bring Houston back for a season, Clowney is head case and I do not want him on this team. There are a few other big names but as said before he knows the system. I really feel DE will taken at #21 and OT in the second round 

[EastStreet]

10 hours ago, BluesGirl said:

Cover 2 defense is set up to get pressure using the front 4 and allowing the back 7 to cover.   Its not strange to me to not see a lot of blitzing.  It's not what this D is designed to do.       When Dungy was here we didn't blitz much either.  Obviously the pressure came from Freeney and Mathis which is what we are lacking. 

 

Another reason I rank ER over LT as a need. Not that I believe it needs to be forced at a particular pick like 21 or 54.  When we are on the clock if the BPA is an ER then take him, But if its a CB or TE then that needs to be the pick    And I still want Houston resigned.   

To start, let's take a year like 2008 when we were 12-4 and had a very good year, when Mathis (11.5 sacks) and Freeney (10.5) were both playing well. We were NOT top 10 in sacks. We were 17th. We had 30 sacks that year. We had 40 this year.

 

So given we had 33% more sacks this year, are we really lacking this year? The difference, if any, was we had a high octane offense those years.

 

I'd also point out we're playing a lot of r/l C3 these days, so we're not pure C2.

 

I'm not a pure PBA guy. It's BPA + need. If you have for instance equal, or near equal players, you take need. And IMO, based on what is being mocked, there will be near talented ERs, LTs, and CBs, right around 21. 

[chad72]

11 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

To start, let's take a year like 2008 when we were 12-4 and had a very good year, when Mathis (11.5 sacks) and Freeney (10.5) were both playing well. We were NOT top 10 in sacks. We were 17th. We had 30 sacks that year. We had 40 this year.

 

So given we had 33% more sacks this year, are we really lacking this year? The difference, if any, was we had a high octane offense those years.

 

I'd also point out we're playing a lot of r/l C3 these days, so we're not pure C2.

 

I'm not a pure PBA guy. It's BPA + need. If you have for instance equal, or near equal players, you take need. And IMO, based on what is being mocked, there will be near talented ERs, LTs, and CBs, right around 21. 

 

If we cannot win just by lining up rushing four, the sacks have to come from scheme and that will only take you so far. We need our guys like Lewis and Banogu to win more 1-on-1s this year, period, however can't go into the year relying on that without enough bodies added for DE.

[EastStreet]

4 hours ago, shasta519 said:

It seems impressive until you look at the game logs. 

The Colts got their sacks in bunches against really bad OLs, including two OLs in their own division (that produced the 2nd and 3rd worst records this past seasons).

 

Nearly 2/3 of their team sacks came in (5) specific games (1x DET, 2x HOU, 2x JAC)...all bottom tier OLs (and in the case of HOU and JAC...bottom 5).

 

Not that they did this intentionally, but they essentially padded their pass rushing stats in these games. Houston, Autry and Buckner all followed this trend  as well. 

 

Not addressing it seems like it might backfire. Letting 2/3 best pass rushers go and not replace them seems like it will really backfire.

 

They also won’t have that ridiculously easy schedule again. So I would sign (2) of these vets AND draft Paye.

 

What you are describing above happens every year. It's incredibly rare for a DL to have equal performances consistently throughout the schedule. DEs and DTs and high blitzing LBs pick up buckets of stats vs bad or hurt OLs. That's the way it always has been, and will continue. 

 

For instance, in Freeney's 2004 season where he had 16 sacks, there were 7 games he did not have a sack in. It happens, even in monster years. In Mathis's 19.5 sack year, even he had goose eggs in 25% of his game. But he was pretty consistent in the other 12 games

[BlackTiger]

14 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

So given we had 33% more sacks this year, are we really lacking this year? The difference, if any, was we had a high octane offense those years.

I noticed something looking at the year end numbers.  The overall sack numbers were not bad, but they didn't come against good teams.  The pass rush was a non factor against the Bills and Steelers, but they got home against the Jaguars and Texans.

 

I do think they need an upgrade in order to close out good teams reliably.

 

edit- looks like you mentioned this as I was typing

[EastStreet]

3 hours ago, hoosierhawk said:

Don't know if his stats were down but felt he never took a play off when he was on the field and hustled constantly. Only 26 and I feel in spite of Stats that he has improved year to year. Might just be my perception but feel he has upside.

I like him, and agree he's got high effort. He's just not to a level of talent though to be a priority right now given the market. 

[hoosierhawk]

8 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I like him, and agree he's got high effort. He's just not to a level of talent though to be a priority right now given the market. 

Is Houston worth 2 to 3 times as much? Just a question.

[EastStreet]

32 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

If we cannot win just by lining up rushing four, the sacks have to come from scheme and that will only take you so far. We need our guys like Lewis and Banogu to win more 1-on-1s this year, period, however can't go into the year relying on that without enough bodies added for DE.

 

We were in the top half of the league in sacks rushing 4, and blitzing 2nd lowest in the league. That screams the personnel was fine. I'm not saying we need to blitz league high 40ish%, but we need to be nearer the median.

 

I do agree we lacked rotational guys, but Houston and Autry were fine as primaries. Not elite, but highly productive given the situation/scheme.

[EastStreet]

16 minutes ago, hoosierhawk said:

Is Houston worth 2 to 3 times as much? Just a question.

Houston is worth 6-9ish. AQM 2-3ish IMO.