Colts were planning to trade up before trading for Wentz?

[RollerColt]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

I think at minimum — especially this first year — Wentz should return to 18/19 levels (top-12ish).   Then hopefully, in 22, he returns to his best form.   
 

It’s not that he’ll be surrounded by better players, but I hope he’ll be in a better support system, from the coaching staff to the locker room, our culture, will be what does the trick. 
 

That’s my hope...  

How a player fits within the scheme, and how they work within an organization is so underrated. 
 

[Moosejawcolt]

7 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

Honestly, I dont always beleive Ballard. He likes to hoard draft picks and moving up to the top 5 per say would have cost a fortune. To me thry r just trying to sell how fortunate they were in getting Wentz. Basically a saviour. That being said, I was all for thr Wentz trade.

[Moosejawcolt]

6 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

I assume the suite us from Frank, and frankly, I’m just not buying it.   If they were going to trade up, they would have preferred a more proven veteran over a rookie.  You know, like Matt Stafford.

 

Theyve been talking all off-season that this is a team ready to WIN NOW!   You typically don’t with a rookie.   Guys like Andrew Luck are the exception to the rule. 
 

Sorry, not buying what Frank is selling. 

For once we agree..lol

[Moosejawcolt]

5 hours ago, Happy2BeHere said:

I would have traded up with the Jets at #2 for a ransom and grab Zach Wilson from BYU, that kid is going to be an absolute baller in the NFL

Do u know what that would have cost? U r talking at least 2 1st rounders and possibly  3 because the Colts r so far back

 

[The Peytonator]

I’m glad we didn’t go the trade up route because the only guy I’d have wanted is Wilson and that would have cost a stupid amount. Free agency would have most likely played out a lot different and I think we’d have seen a serious offer at Trent Williams and some receiving threats. Defense would have been an even more band aid unit than it’s looking as it is. 

[The Peytonator]

Just now, The Peytonator said:

I’m glad we didn’t go the trade up route because the only guy I’d have wanted is Wilson and that would have cost a stupid amount. Free agency would have most likely played out a lot different and I think we’d have seen a serious offer at Trent Williams and some receiving threats. Defense would have been an even more band aid unit than it’s looking as it is. 
 

Also I don’t think @stitches should be so lambasted for seeing a step back next year. That’s the nature of the game. Our already weak edge game has gone down to non existent. Obviously we’ll bring some guys in but they’ll be off the scrap heap and day two or later rookies. 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

5 hours ago, danlhart87 said:

Guess that just leaves the best in the class Mac Jones 

 

 

No, cause I said wasn't crazy about the Bama QB 

[AwesomeAustin]

I believe what he is saying.  Ballard and Reich knew they needed to do something. Going after a proven veteran was the smart play.  I think they stole Wentz for a 1st and a 3rd. Getting anyone of his caliber would have cost multiple 1st round picks and probably the 3rd rounder as well. That would have depleted the resources for the future. Ballard has said multiple times this team isn’t about one player.  I suspect their will be a trade back in the next two drafts to pick up more draft capital so they can keep stocking the shelves. 

[Valpo2004]

14 hours ago, stitches said:

Price for trading up vs price for Wentz. IMO you can probably get in range for one of Fields or Lance if you really wanted. But then again... I don't think the price for trading up would be prohibitive if you truly love the QB you are going for.

 

If you package give away a 1st round pick plus spend the first round pick on the QB you could maybe move up that high.  **Maybe**  There would be a bidding war so you never know.

 

The draft capital we gave away for Wentz is much much smaller than it would have taken to get a QB in the draft.  And we still have our first round pick to get a LT or a DE.  

 

 

 

 

[Valpo2004]

11 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Honestly, I dont always beleive Ballard. He likes to hoard draft picks and moving up to the top 5 per say would have cost a fortune. To me thry r just trying to sell how fortunate they were in getting Wentz. Basically a saviour. That being said, I was all for thr Wentz trade.

 

I don't think it would have been his preference but it would have forced his hand a bit.  

 

A year ago he traded a first round pick and signed Deforest Buckner to a huge contract.  So I don't think he's afraid of making a big move if he think's it's what's best for the team, but obviously trading away a lot of draft picks is something he would rather avoid, hence the trade for Wentz.

 

 

[stitches]

21 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

If you package give away a 1st round pick plus spend the first round pick on the QB you could maybe move up that high.  **Maybe**  There would be a bidding war so you never know.

 

The draft capital we gave away for Wentz is much much smaller than it would have taken to get a QB in the draft.  And we still have our first round pick to get a LT or a DE.  

 

Yeah, for sure... there is uncertainty in going into the draft without being somewhere in the top 5, but there are uncertainties with the Wentz thing too. There are different positives and negatives in either path... I just like the positives vs risks in going for the draft better.  

[Valpo2004]

4 minutes ago, stitches said:

Yeah, for sure... there is uncertainty in going into the draft without being somewhere in the top 5, but there are uncertainties with the Wentz thing too. There are different positives and negatives in either path... I just like the positives vs risks in going for the draft better.  

 

I disagree, the risks here are lower on both ends.  Draft players are total unknowns. . . especially if you get someone like Lance who played 1 full season at a FCS school.  Granted it was a great season but that's it.

 

Wentz has produced in the NFL and was a franchise quarterback until he had a really terrible year last year.  Other franchise QB's have had terrible years.  Rivers had one his last year with the chargers.  Threw more picks than Wentz did.  Andrew Luck had a terrible year I think in 2015, only played in 7 games but was terrible in those 7 games.  If you remember right Matt Hasselbeck came in and looked better than Luck.  

[stitches]

6 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

I disagree, the risks here are lower on both ends.  Draft players are total unknowns. . . especially if you get someone like Lance who played 1 full season at a FCS school.  Granted it was a great season but that's it.

 

Wentz has produced in the NFL and was a franchise quarterback until he had a really terrible year last year.  Other franchise QB's have had terrible years.  Rivers had one his last year with the chargers.  Threw more picks than Wentz did.  Andrew Luck had a terrible year I think in 2015, only played in 7 games but was terrible in those 7 games.  If you remember right Matt Hasselbeck came in and looked better than Luck.  

I disagree the draft players are total unknowns. There is plenty of tape on most of them to know what you are getting as traits and attributes. From then on it's on Ballard and Reich to figure out if they have it all up there and put it all together. 

 

I also disagree about Luck vs Wentz comparison. With Luck there were clear physical/injury reasons for his bad season. With Wentz it's much more on his own decisionmaking and stubborness, as well as his reported inability to take on coaching. I had zero doubts Luck will be good as long as he gets physically right. I have no idea what to think about Wentz. He has both mechanical and mental issues with his game and what is much worse - possibly he isn't receptive to hard coaching that might help him fix some of those issues. Can he do it? Sure... but it definitely is not as certain as many seem to think. I think there are very pronounced risks with Wentz. And you are paying both picks and 25M a year for him. 

 

I think the risks with the rookie QBs are similar but you are paying them a lot less and to a huge degree they are a blank canvas you can develop as you see fit. Rookie at pick 7 for example gets about one quarter of Wentz' salary. You can allocate that extra money too help your QB with weapons or protection or even with defensive impact players if you want.

[AwesomeAustin]

27 minutes ago, stitches said:

I disagree the draft players are total unknowns. There is plenty of tape on most of them to know what you are getting as traits and attributes. From then on it's on Ballard and Reich to figure out if they have it all up there and put it all together. 

 

I also disagree about Luck vs Wentz comparison. With Luck there were clear physical/injury reasons for his bad season. With Wentz it's much more on his own decisionmaking and stubborness, as well as his reported inability to take on coaching. I had zero doubts Luck will be good as long as he gets physically right. I have no idea what to think about Wentz. He has both mechanical and mental issues with his game and what is much worse - possibly he isn't receptive to hard coaching that might help him fix some of those issues. Can he do it? Sure... but it definitely is not as certain as many seem to think. I think there are very pronounced risks with Wentz. And you are paying both picks and 25M a year for him. 

 

I think the risks with the rookie QBs are similar but you are paying them a lot less and to a huge degree they are a blank canvas you can develop as you see fit. Rookie at pick 7 for example gets about one quarter of Wentz' salary. You can allocate that extra money too help your QB with weapons or protection or even with defensive impact players if you want.

I take the reports of Wentz not being receptive to hard coaching with a grain of salt.  First, Pederson was fired so obviously was doing enough wrong for the team to think they are better off without them. 2nd, most people don’t respond well to “hard coaching”.  I try to never yell or lose my cool with my employees.  Yeah, they usually get in line and do exactly what I want for that situation but it’s only temporary. Eventually they will become disgruntled and won’t respond to any kind of coaching.  It’s the job of leaders to find a style that works for each individual to maximize their abilities.  Being a hard butt never works long term. 

[The Fish]

14 hours ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

 

 

It woulda been fun having a Top Rook but highly doubt we could've traded up for Wilson or Fields. Even Lance might have been too pricey and not crazy bout settling for the QB from Bama.

 

We should be  probably better off short term with Wentz rather than a rookie, anyway, and Wentz is not old, he's in his prime if plays like he did before 2020....and I think he will.

So I think we should have good QB play from Wentz for a number of seasons.

 

I just hope he has some playmaking weapons to throw to.

Mitchel Trubisky 

 

 

I'm not sorry we're not getting a rookie QB. I think the first guy off the board is going to be legit. The rest. I think people are talking themselves into hoping the other 3 guys can do it. The odds are they can't.

 

Wentz has done it before. That's the selling point. 

[Valpo2004]

23 minutes ago, stitches said:

I disagree the draft players are total unknowns. There is plenty of tape on most of them to know what you are getting as traits and attributes. From then on it's on Ballard and Reich to figure out if they have it all up there and put it all together. 

 

I also disagree about Luck vs Wentz comparison. With Luck there were clear physical/injury reasons for his bad season. With Wentz it's much more on his own decisionmaking and stubborness, as well as his reported inability to take on coaching. I had zero doubts Luck will be good as long as he gets physically right. I have no idea what to think about Wentz. He has both mechanical and mental issues with his game and what is much worse - possibly he isn't receptive to hard coaching that might help him fix some of those issues. Can he do it? Sure... but it definitely is not as certain as many seem to think. I think there are very pronounced risks with Wentz. And you are paying both picks and 25M a year for him. 

 

I think the risks with the rookie QBs are similar but you are paying them a lot less and to a huge degree they are a blank canvas you can develop as you see fit. Rookie at pick 7 for example gets about one quarter of Wentz' salary. You can allocate that extra money too help your QB with weapons or protection or even with defensive impact players if you want.

 

I think you are putting too much stock into media reports.   They love to pile on to QB's when they are playing bad.  When the team is losing and/or the QB is playing bad suddenly he's a terrible person who won't listen to coaches, doesn't get along with teammates, think's he's better than everyone else . . . and he probably hates puppies as well.  

 

I don't think Frank would have ok'd the trade for Wentz if he wasn't receptive to his coaching.  

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

5 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

I think you are putting too much stock into media reports.   They love to pile on to QB's when they are playing bad.  When the team is losing and/or the QB is playing bad suddenly he's a terrible person who won't listen to coaches, doesn't get along with teammates, think's he's better than everyone else . . . and he probably hates puppies as well.  

 

I don't think Frank would have ok'd the trade for Wentz if he wasn't receptive to his coaching.  

Yep Phili media is bad. I don’t believe a word of it. Everything that has always been said about Wentz is how much of a great guy he is. Now they lose and he is a terrible person. Don’t believe it.

[stitches]

Just now, Valpo2004 said:

 

I think you are putting too much stock into media reports.   They love to pile on to QB's when they are playing bad.  When the team is losing and/or the QB is playing bad suddenly he's a terrible person who won't listen to coaches, doesn't get along with teammates, think's he's better than everyone else . . . and he probably hates puppies as well.  

 

I don't think Frank would have ok'd the trade for Wentz if he wasn't receptive to his coaching.  

OK... let me revisit my question and ask you for your answer then. What do you think are the chances that:

-Wentz returns to his MVP level of play?

-Wentz returns to his 2018-2019 level of play(around top 12-15 QB)?

-Wentz continues to spiral our of control and fails with us(i.e. doesn't finish his contract with the Colts)?

 

[Nesjan3]

Yea im definitely not a fan of trading up. The hit rate on Quarterbacks in the top 20 is a scary low percentage in the last 30 years. I also am not a huge fan of Wentz, if he plays anything like last year its going to be a long season. I am however a fan of Ballard and trust what he is doing. I fully believe if Wentz fails him and Reicht are gone.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

There is a quote from Reich from one of the media interviews he mentions his in 2019 Wentz carried the eagles on his back. 

[Valpo2004]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

OK... let me revisit my question and ask you for your answer then. What do you think are the chances that:

-Wentz returns to his MVP level of play?

-Wentz returns to his 2018-2019 level of play(around top 12-15 QB)?

-Wentz continues to spiral our of control and fails with us(i.e. doesn't finish his contract with the Colts)?

 

 

MVP level - 20%

2018-2019 - 60%

Failure - 20%

 

I base that on Frank Reich.  Luck played better under him.  JB played better under him, Rivers played better under him.  

[Mitch Connors]

19 hours ago, stitches said:

I can't read their minds and there is still plenty of time to sign players but IMO if we don't make serious additions/re-signings to our passrush and LT and weapons it will be very hard not to take a step back no matter whether they expect it or not.

 

At this current moment with this current roster (even expecting some useful additions from the draft) I don't think it's unreasonable to expect us taking a step back. I personally would take the under on 11 wins pretty easily.

 

100% agree. Its ok to not make a splash on big names in FA but this team is losing starters with no line-of-sight to replace them with superior talent. I'm not sure how that leads to anything other than regression. 

[OffensivelyPC]

4 hours ago, stitches said:

I disagree the draft players are total unknowns. There is plenty of tape on most of them to know what you are getting as traits and attributes. From then on it's on Ballard and Reich to figure out if they have it all up there and put it all together.  

And that's why I think we've got a better chance with getting more return on investment with Wentz.  Frank's done it with Wentz already.  Not sayiing he can't do it with a rookie, but the thing about rookie QBs (or really any NFL player), there's an element of development that rests solely with the player and whether they can turn into an effective QB.  Some do, but the majority don't, and it never becomes apparent to us until he's benched or replaced.  Sometimes a draft pick doesn't work out.  The odds of drafting a QB that pans out in my eyes are worse than the odds of Wentz being back with Frank Reich pan out.  And that's, in large part, because Wentz and Frank have done it before. 

 

Quote

I think the risks with the rookie QBs are similar but you are paying them a lot less and to a huge degree they are a blank canvas you can develop as you see fit. Rookie at pick 7 for example gets about one quarter of Wentz' salary. You can allocate that extra money too help your QB with weapons or protection or even with defensive impact players if you want.

Eh, but how much are you paying to move up to 7?  That's gotta be at least #21, a future first, a second and maybe another pick.  But I think at the endo f the day, it ends up being a wash or perhaps even more expensive salary cap-wise because now let's say you sign a couple of above average FAs on offense and/or defense to help your 7th overall QB.  You're still spending $25 million per year.  Giving up high picks, which have the highest possible chance to help at several positions of need makes it just that much more likely that you have to fill those positions of need in free agency.  I mean, maybe you hit on those positions of need, LT, DE, CB, possibly WR with Day 2 and 3 draft picks but the odds of doing that, and hitting on the QB you pick cannot be any better than the odds of trading Wentz and still having the Day 1 and Day 2 draft capital to use on those draft needs and Wentz playing at a level he's already done under his current coach.

[shasta519]

5 hours ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

I disagree, the risks here are lower on both ends.  Draft players are total unknowns. . . especially if you get someone like Lance who played 1 full season at a FCS school.  Granted it was a great season but that's it.

 

Wentz has produced in the NFL and was a franchise quarterback until he had a really terrible year last year.  Other franchise QB's have had terrible years.  Rivers had one his last year with the chargers.  Threw more picks than Wentz did.  Andrew Luck had a terrible year I think in 2015, only played in 7 games but was terrible in those 7 games.  If you remember right Matt Hasselbeck came in and looked better than Luck.  

 

Luck was hurt though. He came back on a regimen the following season and balled out. Then got his shoulder fixed (sort of)...and came back and balled out again...except this time in Reich's scheme. 

 

Rivers was just old...and therefore had a much stronger track record. Getting him back to being a top 10-15 QB was not some miracle. But to do it...they basically stopped throwing downfield.

 

Wentz is different. His regression last season was in a season where he did not get hurt...and he doesn't have a true track record like Rivers (or even Luck did). He is not ascending...and he wasn't prior to last season. 

 

He will certainly be an outlier in that he played worst football in his 5th season than he did as a rookie. It is more logical to me that he intentionally tanked his way out of PHI than that this past season was just some unfortunate blip and he's still a great QB. But I am willing to see it play out first.

 

But QBs ascend into their prime and there is still considerable upside for them as they get near it. For nearly all of them, that is going to be the best football they will ever play (except for the GOATs).

 

But because younger QBs often don't perform well in the playoffs immediately (it can take years)...teams take advantage of the rookie deal and load up the roster to compensate and hope they can built a strong-enough team that can win the playoffs...and maybe even a SB. 

 

And then the hope is that your QB develops into a QB that can lead a team (through the regular season and the playoffs) and win the SB, thus extending the competitive window indefinitely, despite the hefty contract. 

 

This is what makes a guy like Mahomes so incredible. He has shattered that mold. But you can't get a guy like Mahomes (or even a great young QB) without trading up. 

 

The way I see it...the Colts bypassed the QB rookie deal window and went straight to the part where the franchise QB is in his prime and supposed to be able to lead a team to a SB. And we don't even know if Wentz can be that guy. And either does the org...or else they wouldn't have made that pick conditional upon his PT.

 

[Happy2BeHere]

17 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Do u know what that would have cost? U r talking at least 2 1st rounders and possibly  3 because the Colts r so far back

 

I feel it’s worth it. QB is the most important position on the field. 

[shasta519]

4 hours ago, stitches said:

OK... let me revisit my question and ask you for your answer then. What do you think are the chances that:

-Wentz returns to his MVP level of play?

-Wentz returns to his 2018-2019 level of play(around top 12-15 QB)?

-Wentz continues to spiral our of control and fails with us(i.e. doesn't finish his contract with the Colts)?

 

 

Didn't ask me...but I will chime in:

 

1) 0-5% he is the same player he was in 2017. I won't say it can't happen, but I think it's an incredibly slim chance. And I am saying this as someone who thought Wentz was awesome in 2017. He had the big arm, was very mobile, fearless, etc. But he also led the league in 3rd and long conversion rates, which is not something that is typically sustainable. Not to mention the high TD %.

 

But he suffered not one, but two, major injuries that forced him to go to IR in consecutive seasons. And if you watch his 2017-18 tape vs. his 2019 tape...he doesn't move as well. I just don't think he is that 2017 player anymore. And if he was...there is no way that PHI acquiesces his request to be traded. The situation would be very similar to what HOU was doing (prior to the recent allegations).

 

2) 60-70% chance he returns to his 2019 tape...probably 20-30% he returns to his 2018 tape. We already know that Reich is going to adjust the offense to his strengths. He did this with Luck (coming off the shoulder surgery), JB (with his limitations) and Rivers (with his limitations). He is going to take the same approach with Wentz (and he has even hinted at this in interview...about playing complementary football). I think Ertz will be a Colt soon to give Wentz a familiar target and that Reich will look to implement some version of PHI's late 2019 offense that heavily involved TEs and RBs (when Agholor and Alshon went down). That was the last time that Wentz had any success. I don't like it...because we didn't trade for him to simplify the offense like that...but I think it's an inevitability to protect their investment and ensure he doesn't crash and burn right away. And then as the season goes on, the playbook will open up. 

 

3) 30-40% chance it doesn't work out. I do doubt he will crash and burn like last season, but while the mechanical stuff can be worked on, that doesn't mean it will correct itself. If it starts creeping up in games, and he starts making awful decisions and poor passes, I don't think the leash will be super long, though much longer than if he was still in PHI. Not to mention another big injury is not out of the question...which would effectively end the experiment as well.

 

 

[shasta519]

14 minutes ago, Happy2BeHere said:

I feel it’s worth it. QB is the most important position on the field. 

 

By far. Especially if you want to win a SB. A QB on a rookie deal gives X more chances at that as well. Wentz could do that...but the Colts don't get the benefit of developing him and having his cheap rookie deal. And his current contract will most certainly increase in the coming years if he does in fact stick around. When the cap shoots up, Wentz is not going to be still making $25M/year.

 

What's weird is that...for as much confidence as people have in Ballard...they sure seem to be awfully leery of the risks involved in  him making a trade up for a QB. And I don't really see why.

 

The entire debate on trading up revolves around one question...did you get a guy that you can win a SB with?

 

If the answer is yes...then the draft capital doesn't really matter because QB is that valuable.

 

And if the answer is no...you weren't winning a SB anyways because you don't have the QB...so the draft capital doesn't really matter as much either.

 

 

 

[stitches]

2 hours ago, OffensivelyPC said:

And that's why I think we've got a better chance with getting more return on investment with Wentz.  Frank's done it with Wentz already.  Not sayiing he can't do it with a rookie, but the thing about rookie QBs (or really any NFL player), there's an element of development that rests solely with the player and whether they can turn into an effective QB.  Some do, but the majority don't, and it never becomes apparent to us until he's benched or replaced.  Sometimes a draft pick doesn't work out.  The odds of drafting a QB that pans out in my eyes are worse than the odds of Wentz being back with Frank Reich pan out.  And that's, in large part, because Wentz and Frank have done it before. 

Fair enough. But wouldn't the same be valid for a rookie QB too? Frank has done it with a rookie QB before too and developed him to a very high level by year 2 of his career.

Quote

Eh, but how much are you paying to move up to 7?  That's gotta be at least #21, a future first, a second and maybe another pick.  But I think at the endo f the day, it ends up being a wash or perhaps even more expensive salary cap-wise because now let's say you sign a couple of above average FAs on offense and/or defense to help your 7th overall QB.  You're still spending $25 million per year.  Giving up high picks, which have the highest possible chance to help at several positions of need makes it just that much more likely that you have to fill those positions of need in free agency.  I mean, maybe you hit on those positions of need, LT, DE, CB, possibly WR with Day 2 and 3 draft picks but the odds of doing that, and hitting on the QB you pick cannot be any better than the odds of trading Wentz and still having the Day 1 and Day 2 draft capital to use on those draft needs and Wentz playing at a level he's already done under his current coach.

Again, there definitely are pluses and minuses to either approach. Draft picks are uncertain not just at the QB position. The picks you are losing trying to trade up for the QB won't hit 100%... they will have about the same success rate as every other position. The chance is half of them bust. That's why IMO it's probably better to have the extra 20M every year(probably 2 proven starters) rather than 50% chance of a starting LT or 50% chance of a starting CB or whatever position you pick with this extra pick.(because remember - Wentz is coming at a price too - 3d and very likely future 1st, you still have to pay those picks).

 

Lets say the choice is

-Wentz for 25M for 4 years and costing 1st and 3d

-rookie QB for about 6-7M a year for 4 years and costing you 2 1sts and a 3d(that's practically the trade that both Houston and the Chiefs made for Watson and Mahomes)

 

In essence you are sacrificing 1 first rounder for 4 years of extra 18-19M capspace. That is if you think the chance of the guy you draft succeeding is about the same as the chance Wentz succeeds(and I think the chances are similar). To me the choice is easy really.

[Dogg63]

MVP level - 0%

2018-2019 - 70%

Failure - 30%

 

I don't think he can be amazing, but he might be top 6-15 with the right scheme. I'm not convinced he's fixable.

[ColtStrong2013]

On 3/22/2021 at 3:30 PM, CR91 said:

 

I'd take the over. You are acting like the players we lost were like all-pro players. They were either older, expandable, or not worth bringing back. Am I concerned about edge? Of course, but we need to finally look at what we have with our young pass rushers and who knows we can always bring Houston back.

this... 

 

we didn’t get much pass rush as it was last season. Kemoko after returning looked promising (for what it was worth). I think a full healthy offseason will show big results (Robert Mathis agrees). We are clearly going to draft a pass rusher early next month. Whether first or second round, it’s going to likely happen. We’ll keep adding young, long and athletic pass rushers and build from the inside out with Buckner wrecking havoc at the 3 technique. This team is so young, I don’t know how anyone could not think they will only continue getting better. We improved the QB room last year and it resulted in more wins. In my opinion, Rivers was limited which limited Frank’s playbook. Carson Wentz opens the whole damn thing up. I would put money on 10.5 over. Will it happen? Who knows, they have to compete each week and put together wins. But for one to say they are clearly worse off, I’m not seeing it. 

[ColtStrong2013]

17 hours ago, Dogg63 said:

MVP level - 0%

2018-2019 - 70%

Failure - 30%

 

I don't think he can be amazing, but he might be top 6-15 with the right scheme. I'm not convinced he's fixable.

How can you say you don’t think he can be amazing when he was exactly that with Frank as OC in 2017 prior to IR? 
 

could he fail? Absolutely. Could he be an MVP level with this roster? Absolutely! Rivers had a noodle arm and threw for 4k... Frank is going to RPO, have a top 5 rushing attack, and speed all over the field catching passes from a guy who has a hell of an arm. Wentz just has to perform. He’s legit in the best situation possible.   

[Dogg63]

1 hour ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

How can you say you don’t think he can be amazing when he was exactly that with Frank as OC in 2017 prior to IR? 

@shasta519 said it very well, so I'll just quote his thinking rather than re-create my similar train of thought. Difference being, I am a smidge more convinced than shasta that Wentz can no longer be that 2017 guy:

 

20 hours ago, shasta519 said:

1) 0-5% he is the same player he was in 2017. I won't say it can't happen, but I think it's an incredibly slim chance. And I am saying this as someone who thought Wentz was awesome in 2017. He had the big arm, was very mobile, fearless, etc. But he also led the league in 3rd and long conversion rates, which is not something that is typically sustainable. Not to mention the high TD %.

 

But he suffered not one, but two, major injuries that forced him to go to IR in consecutive seasons. And if you watch his 2017-18 tape vs. his 2019 tape...he doesn't move as well. I just don't think he is that 2017 player anymore. And if he was...there is no way that PHI acquiesces his request to be traded. The situation would be very similar to what HOU was doing (prior to the recent allegations).

 

[shasta519]

35 minutes ago, stitches said:

Fair enough. But wouldn't the same be valid for a rookie QB too? Frank has done it with a rookie QB before too and developed him to a very high level by year 2 of his career.

Again, there definitely are pluses and minuses to either approach. Draft picks are uncertain not just at the QB position. The picks you are losing trying to trade up for the QB won't hit 100%... they will have about the same success rate as every other position. The chance is half of them bust. That's why IMO it's probably better to have the extra 20M every year(probably 2 proven starters) rather than 50% chance of a starting LT or 50% chance of a starting CB or whatever position you pick with this extra pick.(because remember - Wentz is coming at a price too - 3d and very likely future 1st, you still have to pay those picks).

 

Lets say the choice is

-Wentz for 25M for 4 years and costing 1st and 3d

-rookie QB for about 6-7M a year for 4 years and costing you 2 1sts and a 3d(that's practically the trade that both Houston and the Chiefs made for Watson and Mahomes)

 

In essence you are sacrificing 1 first rounder for 4 years of extra 18-19M capspace. That is if you think the chance of the guy you draft succeeding is about the same as the chance Wentz succeeds(and I think the chances are similar). To me the choice is easy really.

 

To add...I don't think it will be $18-19M for all 4 years. If Wentz plays well, the Colts will commit to him with a big deal that will pay him relative to other good QBs in the NFL. So it's probably like $18-19M for two seasons and then $28-30M for two more seasons. However, some of that would offset with an early extension for a QB on a rookie deal...but it's still a massive difference. That difference is a legit stud at another position...if you are willing to spend it. And you aren't very likely to get an elite stud drafting late in the 1st round. 

 

I think the other angle is the upside. A rookie QB is all tools and upside. And Reich is widely-regarded as a great QB coach. So I would absolutely want to use that unique advantage with a rookie QB...that he can mold into a top 5-10 QB. 

[ColtStrong2013]

1 hour ago, Dogg63 said:

@shasta519 said it very well, so I'll just quote his thinking rather than re-create my similar train of thought. Difference being, I am a smidge more convinced than shasta that Wentz can no longer be that 2017 guy:

 

 

Andrew luck’s best year statistically was in this offense after multiple injuries... so I disagree thoroughly on the injury aspect that he can’t have similar success.
 

The arm strength is still there. The ability to make all the throws is there. 
 

If he isn’t as mobile, I trust Frank will put him in the right spots to reach his potential, as he did with Rivers last year. Rivers potential last season was reached, maybe even eclipsed. 
 

I’m not saying he will be there. But to say 0% chance or a minuscule chance of him being great again is a baseless opinion. He was a top tier qb out of college, and has performed at mvp level before in this league... with a very similar roster makeup and now with the same offensive coach. Philadelphia was a hot mess. Indianapolis is not. 

[RollerColt]

I’m willing to give Carson a chance. From a scouting perspective he’s what you want in a QB: 6’5, 237 lbs, strong arm, a lifelong learner. 
 

If he stays humble, listens to Frank and accepts advise I don’t see why he can’t reach ‘18, ‘19 levels. There will be a growing and adapting period at the beginning of the year, it will take some patience.