How Free Agency is affecting the Colts.

[Mackrel829]

Thought it might be fun/useful to look at deals around the league and see what they suggest about the market for the Colts free agents.

 

For example, Jarrad Davis just got $7m from the Jets. I've said that I think Anthony Walker could get $7-9m a year from someone, and I see no reason to change my opinion based on this deal. I don't think Ballard would be willing to pay Walker that when he'd be a depth LB for the most part.

 

Similarly, Nelson Agholor just got $13m a year from the Patriots. Agholor and TY are fairly similar players in terms of skill set and ideal usage. Agholor is younger, but TY has been more productive for a longer period. Corey Davis is a less analogous comparison, but he got $12.5 a year from the Jets. Based on TY's circumstances last season, it's probably fair to assume that his market might be somewhere around $10m, which is in line with the predictions of many here.

 

Of course, a number of these early signings have been made by teams that have money to spend. As these teams spend themselves out, the market will inevitably slow and prices will generally decrease. Something to bear in mind whilst looking around the league at other deals.

[chad72]

Let Walker go and trade for C J Mosley from the Jets for a 4th and take on his contract, you won't get anyone better with a 4th round pick for that MLB position.

 

Then, I'd wait till week 2 for buy low candidates like Melvin Ingram and Carlos Dunlap that fit our system. Focus on re-signing Xavier Rhodes and Justin Houston, and then go from there. Let the dust settle and maybe Trent Williams and Hunter Henry will come within striking range??? Or Riley Reiff??

 

Still lots of good players available.

[Mackrel829]

56 minutes ago, chad72 said:

Let Walker go and trade for C J Mosley from the Jets for a 4th and take on his contract, you won't get anyone better with a 4th round pick for that MLB position.

 

Then, I'd wait till week 2 for buy low candidates like Melvin Ingram and Carlos Dunlap that fit our system. Focus on re-signing Xavier Rhodes and Justin Houston, and then go from there. Let the dust settle and maybe Trent Williams and Hunter Henry will come within striking range??? Or Riley Reiff??

 

Still lots of good players available.

 

Isn't Moseley on crazy money? Not sure on the specifics of his contract in terms of guaranteed money but he's still got a few years left on that big deal he signed.

 

I've not really considers Melvin Ingram but think he could actually be a really good fit. Could be good value.

 

And I'd be more than happy to sign Reiff.

 

Not looking to turn this into anothet 'who do you want in free agency' thread though. It's more to use deals from around the league to track the markets of our own free agents.

[JackOLantin]

4 hours ago, Mackrel829 said:

Thought it might be fun/useful to look at deals around the league and see what they suggest about the market for the Colts free agents.

 

For example, Jarrad Davis just got $7m from the Jets. I've said that I think Anthony Walker could get $7-9m a year from someone, and I see no reason to change my opinion based on this deal. I don't think Ballard would be willing to pay Walker that when he'd be a depth LB for the most part.

 

Similarly, Nelson Agholor just got $13m a year from the Patriots. Agholor and TY are fairly similar players in terms of skill set and ideal usage. Agholor is younger, but TY has been more productive for a longer period. Corey Davis is a less analogous comparison, but he got $12.5 a year from the Jets. Based on TY's circumstances last season, it's probably fair to assume that his market might be somewhere around $10m, which is in line with the predictions of many here.

 

Of course, a number of these early signings have been made by teams that have money to spend. As these teams spend themselves out, the market will inevitably slow and prices will generally decrease. Something to bear in mind whilst looking around the league at other deals.

Makes sense to me, be great to bring TY back but seems everyone's getting paaaaaid! TYs up there in age so that should be in our favour!

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

the top tier playmaking talent is gone, now we are getting into the just average run of the mill talent, our owner friendly dollar general gm may pick up some lesser talent here, but he likes to save his cap for what i dont know

[Myles]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

Let Walker go and trade for C J Mosley from the Jets for a 4th and take on his contract, you won't get anyone better with a 4th round pick for that MLB position.

 

Then, I'd wait till week 2 for buy low candidates like Melvin Ingram and Carlos Dunlap that fit our system. Focus on re-signing Xavier Rhodes and Justin Houston, and then go from there. Let the dust settle and maybe Trent Williams and Hunter Henry will come within striking range??? Or Riley Reiff??

 

Still lots of good players available.

Henry just signed a $37 contract with the Pats.

7 minutes ago, DEFENSE said:

the top tier playmaking talent is gone, now we are getting into the just average run of the mill talent, our owner friendly dollar general gm may pick up some lesser talent here, but he likes to save his cap for what i dont know

Probably in order to sign our own.  I'm glad he's not wasting our cap space on 2 or 3 players.

[NewColtsFan]

9 minutes ago, DEFENSE said:

the top tier playmaking talent is gone, now we are getting into the just average run of the mill talent, our owner friendly dollar general gm may pick up some lesser talent here, but he likes to save his cap for what i dont know

You don’t know?

 

Darius Leonard.

Braden Smith.

Nahem Hines.

Quinton Nelson

 

[crazycolt1]

19 minutes ago, DEFENSE said:

the top tier playmaking talent is gone, now we are getting into the just average run of the mill talent, our owner friendly dollar general gm may pick up some lesser talent here, but he likes to save his cap for what i dont know

[ProblChld32]

2 hours ago, chad72 said:

Let Walker go and trade for C J Mosley from the Jets for a 4th and take on his contract, you won't get anyone better with a 4th round pick for that MLB position.

 

Then, I'd wait till week 2 for buy low candidates like Melvin Ingram and Carlos Dunlap that fit our system. Focus on re-signing Xavier Rhodes and Justin Houston, and then go from there. Let the dust settle and maybe Trent Williams and Hunter Henry will come within striking range??? Or Riley Reiff??

 

Still lots of good players available.

Hunter signed with Patriots 

[r a y s k i]

47 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

You don’t know?

 

Darius Leonard.

Braden Smith.

Nahem Hines.

Quinton Nelson

 

It still baffles me that people don't get this

[BlackTiger]

4 minutes ago, rayski said:

It still baffles me that people don't get this

I think most people do get that, but some of us also believe we need to do more than sign our own to make a run at anything.  We dont have tons of cash to throw around, but we need a player or two that moves the needle

[r a y s k i]

Just now, BlackTiger said:

I think most people do get that, but some of us also believe we need to do more than sign our own to make a run at anything.  We dont have tons of cash to throw around, but we need a player or two that moves the needle

I get that and I think CB has proved that he will spend picks or money when it is justified. The end of the day what he wants to achieve is a long lasting elite franchise, which takes time and discipline, at least that's my view on it, CB deserves the benefit of the doubt. 

 

I'd say we haven't missed out on anyone huge that is worth the money they got, most were slightly above average guys who had a decent contract year and getting PAID big times.

[jshipp23]

53 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

You don’t know?

 

Darius Leonard.

Braden Smith.

Nahem Hines.

Quinton Nelson

 

You realize the cap is gonna explode next year  with new TV deal?.. 50 million or maybe even more..We will have plenty of $$ to resign our guys, thats a weak excuse..

[r a y s k i]

5 minutes ago, jshipp23 said:

You realize the cap is gonna explode next year  with new TV deal?.. 50 million or maybe even more..We will have plenty of $$ to resign our guys, thats a weak excuse..

Who out there who got paid is actually worth the money they got. Maybe Hunter, still liability injury wise.I don't think we missed out on anyone yet. But signing FAs isn't just black and white and CB understands this. We are a young team, loads of young dudes on cheap contracts, if you bring someone in on huge money, you better make sure that he fits the culture and will deliver, like Buckner did. CB puts a huge emphasis on the cohesiveness of our unit.

 

 

[NewColtsFan]

3 minutes ago, jshipp23 said:

You realize the cap is gonna explode next year  with new TV deal?.. 50 million or maybe even more..We will have plenty of $$ to resign our guys, thats a weak excuse..

No it’s not.   Ballard has never spent wildly the first few days.   And he never will.   And no one knows what next years number is going to be.   Teams haven’t even been able to figure out how many tickets they can sell yet.   Yes, the cap will go up, but no one knows how much?   

[BlackTiger]

1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:

Is free agency ending at the end of today?

 

I appreciate that you’re new here,  but this reaction has happened the last 4 years now.

I've been lurking here for a while, this isn't new to me.  Also on reddit which is a lot more impatient than this site.

 

I get that CB is patient and has a good track record in the draft.  We also have not won anything big with him either, he might have to change the script at some point to make a run at something beyond the division.

 

You can give him the benefit of the doubt because Luck retired, but I am past that.  Id like to see more results.  I know they went 11-5, they also had a weak SoS and lost to afc playoff teams 

[jshipp23]

1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:

No it’s not.   Ballard has never spent wildly the first few days.   And he never will.   And no one knows what next years number is going to be.   Teams haven’t even been able to figure out how many tickets they can sell yet.   Yes, the cap will go up, but no one knows how much?   

Several experts have said it will balloon with next TV deal next year, and its artificially low this year cause of the pandemic....It will go up 40-50 million next year minimum....

[Myles]

5 minutes ago, jshipp23 said:

Several experts have said it will balloon with next TV deal next year, and its artificially low this year cause of the pandemic....It will go up 40-50 million next year minimum....

Until that is known, a wise GM doesn't spend what would take him anywhere near the cap.

[Nate!]

10 minutes ago, jshipp23 said:

Several experts have said it will balloon with next TV deal next year, and its artificially low this year cause of the pandemic....It will go up 40-50 million next year minimum....

Will go up but we don’t know exacts now.  Also borrowed from future years for this year to make it artificially higher.    What if we spend next year on even better players?   Don’t think blowing our cash all this year is automatically a great move.  Still haven’t seen anything that has me concerned with Colts approach so far

[ManningsArmy]

The Patriots are reloading.  I fear they are once again the team to beat in the AFC

 

Go Colts!

[shasta519]

4 minutes ago, jshipp23 said:

Several experts have said it will balloon with next TV deal next year, and its artificially low this year cause of the pandemic....It will go up 40-50 million next year minimum....

 

Yeah...do we think these teams, many led by smart FO execs, would be throwing around this money around if there wasn't going to be some huge increase shortly? Look at BB in NE...or teams that were supposedly WAY over the cap limit.

 

Admittedly, I had way overestimated the byproduct of COVID on this offseason. Where was the supposed bloodbath of players getting released? It's pretty clear that COVID was merely hiccup for the NFL...and they plan to be back to printing money by this time next year. 

[coming on strong]

Ballard will get some players he wants to wait until the players get slightly cheaper 

[BlackTiger]

I know we come off as impatient, but we are an nfl fan base... This isn't a zen class to see how calm and patient we can all be.

 

I think we need pass rush and they are disappearing off the market quickly.  It will be hard to close out good teams if we don't upgrade there, and the draft isn't looking good.

 

Hotish take?  I would be ok with letting Smith go if thats what it takes to clear up room for an edge

[TheNextGM]

I know we have to look forward and plan for contracts for Q and Maniac and Others but I’m shocked Colts haven’t added an edge or tackle yet.. still lots of time to go but those, along with WR, are the biggest weaknesses on the roster. Can’t add all three with a first round pick. 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

1 hour ago, DEFENSE said:

 our owner friendly dollar general gm may pick up some lesser talent here, but he likes to save his cap for what i dont know

 

Bitcoin 

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

3 minutes ago, TheNextGM said:

I know we have to look forward and plan for contracts for Q and Maniac and Others but I’m shocked Colts haven’t added an edge or tackle yet.. still lots of time to go but those, along with WR, are the biggest weaknesses on the roster. Can’t add all three with a first round pick. 

and as each hour passes the talent level declines

[BlackTiger]

28 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Is free agency ending at the end of today?

Are there any edge rushers left that would move the needle?  If so will we even sign them?

[BlackTiger]

Just now, NewColtsFan said:

You're defending a fan base

Every nfl fan base is like this

[jshipp23]

6 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

You’re the original pie in the sky guy.   Everything is so certain with you.  Sign this guy, draft this player, make this trade.   Everything is so easy and obvious to you.  Too bad the real world doesn’t work that way. 
 

Oh....   welcome back.   I’m sure you’ll be here  thru the draft....    have fun!      

Just like when I said draft T.J. Watt, Desmond King, and D.K. Metcalf...

[LJpalmbeacher2]

So what if the Cap Balloons up in the upcoming seasons?.....it's not going to affect the colts much.....it's just more money for other teams to give to players.

[BlackTiger]

5 minutes ago, jshipp23 said:

Just like when I said draft T.J. Watt, Desmond King, and D.K. Metcalf...

I was hoping for Watt and Metcalf myself.  I realize other teams passed on these guys, but Campbell over DK was a head scratcher to me.

 

TJ was high on my list too, Hooker was a one year wonder and not even a premium position.  Ballard is a good GM, but some people act like hes above criticism(especially on reddit)

[NewColtsFan]

4 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

Are there any edge rushers left that would move the needle?  If so will we even sign them?

I don’t know.   I suspect there are under the radar guys on the Autry level.   But two years ago we signed Houston two weeks after FA opened and as it turned out, Houston recorded the second most sacks of any edge player in that FA class.  No one would’ve predicted that then.   Free Agency is a weird funny beast. 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

Every year, this time of year, these threads are the same...... a few showing disappointment not signing big FA's..... some saying other teams are foolishly spending too much to justify colts not spending.... and the wise ones,lol, who say officially FA hasn't even begun yet so why be already so disappointed. 

[shasta519]

10 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

I know we come off as impatient, but we are an nfl fan base... This isn't a zen class to see how calm and patient we can all be.

 

I think we need pass rush and they are disappearing off the market quickly.  It will be hard to close out good teams if we don't upgrade there, and the draft isn't looking good.

 

Hotish take?  I would be ok with letting Smith go if thats what it takes to clear up room for an edge

 

Well to be fair...

 

On the first day of the legal tampering period in 2020...the Colts traded the #13 pick to SF for DeFo and then signed him to a massive deal.

 

On the first day of the legal tampering period in 2019, the Colts sign Devin Funchess.

 

There's been some recent precedent for a big move to be made by now. 

[BlackTiger]

Just now, shasta519 said:

 

Well to be fair...

 

On the first day of the legal tampering period in 2020...the Colts traded the #13 pick to SF for DeFo and then signed him to a massive deal.

 

On the first day of the legal tampering period in 2019, the Colts sign Devin Funchess.

 

There's been some recent precedent for a big move to be made by now. 

 I have not forgotten about that.  I realize its early but there were some edge rushers on the market that might have been an upgrade, but they are already gone.

 

I'm not doom and gloom, just thinking we need more to make a run at the Chiefs and maybe Bills

[NewColtsFan]

7 minutes ago, jshipp23 said:

Just like when I said draft T.J. Watt, Desmond King, and D.K. Metcalf...

TJ Watt is a 3-4 OLB, he does not fit our defense.   He didn’t before the draft or now. 
 

King is a small corner.  We have one with Moore.  Ballard prefers taller corners.   And practically the entire NFL passed on Metcalf not once, but twice!  
 

No member of this community has made more predictions than you.  Congrats on the ones you got right.  But for every one you got right, you probably have a dozen or more completely wrong.  You have a habit of forgetting those.  How convenient.  

[AustexColt]

I am feeling positive ALREADY because we resolved the biggest FA question:  Carson Wentz is going to be our QB, have a healthy salary cap and Ballard pulling the trigger. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

6 minutes ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

Every year, this time of year, these threads are the same...... a few showing disappointment not signing big FA's..... some saying other teams are foolishly spending too much to justify colts not spending.... and the wise ones,lol, who say officially FA hasn't even begun yet so why be already so disappointed. 

I am not so much disappointed but with Autry gone I am just nervous what our pass rush is going to look like. Hopefully Ballard has something up his sleeve.

[shasta519]

6 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

I was hoping for Watt and Metcalf myself.  I realize other teams passed on these guys, but Campbell over DK was a head scratcher to me.

 

TJ was high on my list too, Hooker was a one year wonder and not even a premium position.  Ballard is a good GM, but some people act like hes above criticism(especially on reddit)

 

This forum is much more objective overall than the Colts sub reddit...but that mindset is still prevalent here at times. 

 

And when you are critical of something, you are often yelling into the void...or met with emojis (which far better than the downvote party that awaits you on the sub reddit IMO). 

 

I have been critical of the Funchess signing, the JB deal, passing on Sweat in the draft and the Wentz trade. That seems like a lot...but when you look at those moves holistically...I don't think it's unreasonable at all to question or have concerns about them. But at the time, it sure felt that way...and still does.

[shasta519]

9 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

 I have not forgotten about that.  I realize its early but there were some edge rushers on the market that might have been an upgrade, but they are already gone.

 

I'm not doom and gloom, just thinking we need more to make a run at the Chiefs and maybe Bills

 

My point was more that, if anything, we should have expected by now, based on recent history. So it's fair to be a bit disappointed it hasn't happened.