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One issue about Free Agency has caught my eye....


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A number of websites have projected the size of the free agent contracts.    On PFF,  they will even show you their comparisons and the math used to make the final prediction for years and dollars.

 

BUT....

 

No where am I seeing anything that reflects the fact that teams are dealing with a lowered salary cap,  and they're all going to have roughly $15 million less to spend.   

I don't see any predictions that reflect that world.    Seems counter-intuitive to me.    With all the talk we've all read about how the middle class players are going to bear the burden of smaller contracts,  I'm not seeing that anywhere in these predictions.     And frankly,  I don't understand it?

 

If you didn't know about how Covid has hurt the NFL,  you couldn't tell by the salary predictions anywhere.    To me,  it reads pretty much as business as usual.

 

So.....   is it just me?     Or has anyone else noticed this?     Your thoughts?

 

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The only thing I would say is - I'm not sure if they take it into account. It's possible they do and their numbers still come out like this... no idea. 

 

I really really want to see what happens IRL though. Is the low and midmarket the only ones that get affected or will the top FAs suffer some depressed market too? No idea... but if the top of the market suffers, I wouldn't mind it if we actually spend big now and do it long-term so we can use the current lower pricetag in future years when the cap will normalize. 

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I agree with you @NewColtsFan 

 

They don’t appear to change the thought for the market value and assume many players will be paid the same I guess. Again to me the top tier guys will take a slight hit as well but middle guys will for sure I believe. If we resign Hilton or Houston/Autry I think it’s for a lot lower than expected because Ballard let’s them test the market. Rhodes might be in the same situation. It will very interesting the next few weeks for sure. 

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This will be the weirdest FA the NFL has seen in a long time. You will see most players take a 1 year deal so they can cash out more in 2022 when/if the cap situation goes back to normal and most teams will have more money to spend. This is the year you want to be a team in the hunt for a SB cause these players will want to play for a winner for that one year. 

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I think they are kind of in a tough spot. They have been doing projections for market values for years now and it is expected of them at this point. Unfortunately we are in uncharted waters with the cap going down instead of up, with no real idea how GMs are going to value players, both as a whole and individually. I think the websites just stuck to what theyve always done and used the same method of determining market value for a player (which is largely based on recent historical contracts for similarly aged players of the same position) because to do otherwise is fairly impossible given the data they have to work with. 

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NCF, I’ve been wondering the same thing. I suspect that the sites are all stuck in the past valuation mode. Because no one know what to make of this unprecedented cap situation. 
Me: I agree with the idea that we’ll see a load of one year deals as the players and agents try to bridge their way to better times. That means some great deals for the teams with a little cap space, but fewer long term building blocks. 

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