Colts OL- Future Spending and Some Numbers

[TomDiggs 577]

Thought this might deserve a place for chat and discussion since I am seeing people say things about OL and future spending and not being able to afford big investments in free agents due to our upcoming extensions, etc. So wanted to lay out my thoughts after I have been dissecting this in my brain for a bit. lol. 

 

 

 

I would say a majority of our fan base has said something along the lines of:

 

"With the Nelson and Smith extensions coming and with having to pay Kelly, we probably invest in a 1st round LT to replace AC since we cannot spend big there and sink all of our cost in the OL"

 

On the surface that is sound logic. But dig in and we can absolutely spend big at LT if we really truly want to. 

 

Example:

 

How much were the cap charges for our OL in 2020?

 

AC- $17M

Q- $6.6M

Kelly- $15.4M

Glow- $6.9M

Smith- $2.0M

 

Total: $47.9M

 

This was with us also paying $52.8M to QBs in cap space.

 

So fast forward to this year:

 

Our top 4 cost $32.5M plus whatever we pay the LT

 

But here is the beauty.....Kelly's guaranteed money is over after this year and his base salaries drop. So in 2022 our cap hits are:

 

Kelly- $7.5M

Q- Fifth year option equal to the franchise tag based on provisions met....currently that is $14.5M....likely a bit higher next year.

 

At that point Glow is gone and Smith gets his new deal kicking in. Let's assume he gets one and it pays him around what a top-10 to top-5 RT makes....that's $8M-$10M a year....I say go with the high and figure $10M

 

We would be at $32M plus that LT plus a new RG

 

Basically if we had a second round RG penciled in at $1.5-$2M then our cap number for the OL wouldn't be much higher than 2020 was. 

 

Really our cap specialists (the Mike Bluems of the world) have us sitting pretty. if we stagger the extensions we can easily handle and manage the hit.

 

Q is likely gonna get around $18M or so a year on the new deal. Smith maybe $10M. Add them to Kelly and we are around $35-$38M. Add a young RG to that and it is $37-$40M.

 

That means that a $15-18M LT puts us in the ballpark of $50-55M downstream....which looks rough....but then you consider this:

 

We paid starting OL and QBs $100M in 2020. Wentz is gonna be a $25M guy if he hits....we can easily handle $50-$55M on the OL IFFFFF we want to. 

 

Factor in that w the new TV deal, 2022 or 2023 cap numbers could be anywhere from $220M-$230M and we are sitting pretty (even if the league has to borrow $10M or so per both years from future caps to make up for this year's artificially high cap level based on last year's revenue).

 

I say all this simply to say that if there is a great LT prospect at 21 then sure go for it. Helps us a lot and makes financial sense. But we can absolutely afford a top-notch LT in free agency if we want to. And if that deal is in the 3-4 year range it is even more manageable downstream.

 

Just food for thought . 

[AustinnKaine 364]

AC retiring might actually benefit the line. Also, no disrespect to 74 definitely the most underrated tackle to have played the last 10 years and deserves ring of honor imo. I'm just sayying that cap hit was heavy. If we can draft a young guy or pay a mid tier LT for a stop gap year I think that would be okay. Im imagining heavy run and heavy boot rollouts this year. So I don't think a top pass pro guy is required right now. Obviously we want to find our guy soon though. 56 deserves a running mate. 

[Nickster 932]

5 hours ago, AustinnKaine said:

AC retiring might actually benefit the line. Also, no disrespect to 74 definitely the most underrated tackle to have played the last 10 years and deserves ring of honor imo. I'm just sayying that cap hit was heavy. If we can draft a young guy or pay a mid tier LT for a stop gap year I think that would be okay. Im imagining heavy run and heavy boot rollouts this year. So I don't think a top pass pro guy is required right now. Obviously we want to find our guy soon though. 56 deserves a running mate. 

I think the run game will likely be better off with someone other than AC.  Voldheer looked better there when I watched the games.  I haven’t studied it or seen any breakdown of the two.

 

We were emasculated in pass pro without AC though.  The playbook was severely limited with non Voldheer replacements.

 

We need a league average type pass pro LT, but not as badly as last year with Rivers.  Wentz can roll and boot and pull the RPO and pick up yards himself.

 

it would be ideal not to have to pay big vet money to an LT.

[AustinnKaine 364]

5 hours ago, Nickster said:

I think the run game will likely be better off with someone other than AC.  Voldheer looked better there when I watched the games.  I haven’t studied it or seen any breakdown of the two.

 

We were emasculated in pass pro without AC though.  The playbook was severely limited with non Voldheer replacements.

 

We need a league average type pass pro LT, but not as badly as last year with Rivers.  Wentz can roll and boot and pull the RPO and pick up yards himself.

 

it would be ideal not to have to pay big vet money to an LT.

yeah we pretty much agree. I just don't want us to over extend. Tbh I think an average LT or a young LT with upside would be fine. Just someone clearly above Clark's level of skill. I wonder if we would ever resign Joe Haeg. 

[twfish 1,145]

I really really think we need to double down at LT this year in FA and the draft. With our new QB being so gun shy from pass rush i truly do believe it will be detrimental to keep him clean. Relying on a rookie to come in and play at a very high level can become a little unrealistic. We should sign somebody with a large front loaded contract this year (as to not cut into the dealings of everyone elses extensions) and draft a LT in the first our second let him get a feel for the game and then possibly trade the vet.

[BSteph1 49]

12 hours ago, TomDiggs said:

Thought this might deserve a place for chat and discussion since I am seeing people say things about OL and future spending and not being able to afford big investments in free agents due to our upcoming extensions, etc. So wanted to lay out my thoughts after I have been dissecting this in my brain for a bit. lol. 

 

 

 

I would say a majority of our fan base has said something along the lines of:

 

"With the Nelson and Smith extensions coming and with having to pay Kelly, we probably invest in a 1st round LT to replace AC since we cannot spend big there and sink all of our cost in the OL"

 

On the surface that is sound logic. But dig in and we can absolutely spend big at LT if we really truly want to. 

 

Example:

 

How much were the cap charges for our OL in 2020?

 

AC- $17M

Q- $6.6M

Kelly- $15.4M

Glow- $6.9M

Smith- $2.0M

 

Total: $47.9M

 

This was with us also paying $52.8M to QBs in cap space.

 

So fast forward to this year:

 

Our top 4 cost $32.5M plus whatever we pay the LT

 

But here is the beauty.....Kelly's guaranteed money is over after this year and his base salaries drop. So in 2022 our cap hits are:

 

Kelly- $7.5M

Q- Fifth year option equal to the franchise tag based on provisions met....currently that is $14.5M....likely a bit higher next year.

 

At that point Glow is gone and Smith gets his new deal kicking in. Let's assume he gets one and it pays him around what a top-10 to top-5 RT makes....that's $8M-$10M a year....I say go with the high and figure $10M

 

We would be at $32M plus that LT plus a new RG

 

Basically if we had a second round RG penciled in at $1.5-$2M then our cap number for the OL wouldn't be much higher than 2020 was. 

 

Really our cap specialists (the Mike Bluems of the world) have us sitting pretty. if we stagger the extensions we can easily handle and manage the hit.

 

Q is likely gonna get around $18M or so a year on the new deal. Smith maybe $10M. Add them to Kelly and we are around $35-$38M. Add a young RG to that and it is $37-$40M.

 

That means that a $15-18M LT puts us in the ballpark of $50-55M downstream....which looks rough....but then you consider this:

 

We paid starting OL and QBs $100M in 2020. Wentz is gonna be a $25M guy if he hits....we can easily handle $50-$55M on the OL IFFFFF we want to. 

 

Factor in that w the new TV deal, 2022 or 2023 cap numbers could be anywhere from $220M-$230M and we are sitting pretty (even if the league has to borrow $10M or so per both years from future caps to make up for this year's artificially high cap level based on last year's revenue).

 

I say all this simply to say that if there is a great LT prospect at 21 then sure go for it. Helps us a lot and makes financial sense. But we can absolutely afford a top-notch LT in free agency if we want to. And if that deal is in the 3-4 year range it is even more manageable downstream.

 

Just food for thought . 

The bigger issue is what free agent LT would you feel comfortable paying? Trent Williams, Alejandro Villanueva, and Russel Okung will all be 33 next year. We’ve seen first-hand how quickly injuries can accumulate for a big man on the wrong side of 30.

 

There’s an argument to be made that a guy like Williams might be more along the lines of Andrew Whitworth or Jason Peters, but at north of $60 million in guarantees it’s a pretty risky bet.

[Moosejawcolt 1,694]

12 hours ago, TomDiggs said:

Thought this might deserve a place for chat and discussion since I am seeing people say things about OL and future spending and not being able to afford big investments in free agents due to our upcoming extensions, etc. So wanted to lay out my thoughts after I have been dissecting this in my brain for a bit. lol. 

 

 

 

I would say a majority of our fan base has said something along the lines of:

 

"With the Nelson and Smith extensions coming and with having to pay Kelly, we probably invest in a 1st round LT to replace AC since we cannot spend big there and sink all of our cost in the OL"

 

On the surface that is sound logic. But dig in and we can absolutely spend big at LT if we really truly want to. 

 

Example:

 

How much were the cap charges for our OL in 2020?

 

AC- $17M

Q- $6.6M

Kelly- $15.4M

Glow- $6.9M

Smith- $2.0M

 

Total: $47.9M

 

This was with us also paying $52.8M to QBs in cap space.

 

So fast forward to this year:

 

Our top 4 cost $32.5M plus whatever we pay the LT

 

But here is the beauty.....Kelly's guaranteed money is over after this year and his base salaries drop. So in 2022 our cap hits are:

 

Kelly- $7.5M

Q- Fifth year option equal to the franchise tag based on provisions met....currently that is $14.5M....likely a bit higher next year.

 

At that point Glow is gone and Smith gets his new deal kicking in. Let's assume he gets one and it pays him around what a top-10 to top-5 RT makes....that's $8M-$10M a year....I say go with the high and figure $10M

 

We would be at $32M plus that LT plus a new RG

 

Basically if we had a second round RG penciled in at $1.5-$2M then our cap number for the OL wouldn't be much higher than 2020 was. 

 

Really our cap specialists (the Mike Bluems of the world) have us sitting pretty. if we stagger the extensions we can easily handle and manage the hit.

 

Q is likely gonna get around $18M or so a year on the new deal. Smith maybe $10M. Add them to Kelly and we are around $35-$38M. Add a young RG to that and it is $37-$40M.

 

That means that a $15-18M LT puts us in the ballpark of $50-55M downstream....which looks rough....but then you consider this:

 

We paid starting OL and QBs $100M in 2020. Wentz is gonna be a $25M guy if he hits....we can easily handle $50-$55M on the OL IFFFFF we want to. 

 

Factor in that w the new TV deal, 2022 or 2023 cap numbers could be anywhere from $220M-$230M and we are sitting pretty (even if the league has to borrow $10M or so per both years from future caps to make up for this year's artificially high cap level based on last year's revenue).

 

I say all this simply to say that if there is a great LT prospect at 21 then sure go for it. Helps us a lot and makes financial sense. But we can absolutely afford a top-notch LT in free agency if we want to. And if that deal is in the 3-4 year range it is even more manageable downstream.

 

Just food for thought . 

Where so u get that Smith will male 10 million a year? Have looked at the top  right tackle salaries? This Oline is bout to get very expensive. So alot of our cap will be in our Oline and a WSL. How will we invest in the skill positions?

[Myles 4,359]

Ideally getting a LT in the draft would be best, but the one's who are left at 21 may not be ready to start at a high level in the NFL.  

[Mackrel829 197]

21 minutes ago, twfish said:

I really really think we need to double down at LT this year in FA and the draft. With our new QB being so gun shy from pass rush i truly do believe it will be detrimental to keep him clean. Relying on a rookie to come in and play at a very high level can become a little unrealistic. We should sign somebody with a large front loaded contract this year (as to not cut into the dealings of everyone elses extensions) and draft a LT in the first our second let him get a feel for the game and then possibly trade the vet.

 

It will be detrimental to keep Carson Wentz clean?! I think you mean the exact opposite lol.

 

Other than that, I agree with you entirely. I think a league average LT in FA and a rookie at some point in the 1st or 2nd round is the way to go. Gives you maximum possible flexibility in the draft and provides some much needed depth.

[Superman 9,632]

13 hours ago, TomDiggs said:

We paid starting OL and QBs $100M in 2020. Wentz is gonna be a $25M guy if he hits....we can easily handle $50-$55M on the OL IFFFFF we want to. 

 

This is a good breakdown. The total resources on the OL can balance out, even with big money for Nelson.

[twfish 1,145]

41 minutes ago, Mackrel829 said:

 

It will be detrimental to keep Carson Wentz clean?! I think you mean the exact opposite lol.

 

Other than that, I agree with you entirely. I think a league average LT in FA and a rookie at some point in the 1st or 2nd round is the way to go. Gives you maximum possible flexibility in the draft and provides some much needed depth.

Hey...... words are hard....  

[stitches 8,703]

It's not that we CANNOT spend more on the OL... you can always spend more if you want. The question is whether it's prudent and whether it is a wise allocation of resources to have about 35% of your cap tied in just the OL when you have so many other positions that are in desperate need for upgrade. I also don't think Braden will get 10M. I think he will be closer to 20 than to 10 IMO. I can absolutely see him getting 16-17M if he hits free agency. 

 

But yeah... in general it will be all about prioritizing needs and allocating resources. If we don't spend cash we will likely need to spend draft capital on OT and that's valuable resource too... Lets see how Ballard balances this one out. 

[NewColtsFan 9,771]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

It's not that we CANNOT spend more on the OL... you can always spend more if you want. The question is whether it's prudent and whether it is a wise allocation of resources to have about 35% of your cap tied in just the OL when you have so many other positions that are in desperate need for upgrade. I also don't think Braden will get 10M. I think he will be closer to 20 than to 10 IMO. I can absolutely see him getting 16-17M if he hits free agency. 

 

But yeah... in general it will be all about prioritizing needs and allocating resources. If we don't spend cash we will likely need to spend draft capital on OT and that's valuable resource too... Lets see how Ballard balances this one out. 

Right tackles don’t make closer to 20 than 10.   None of them.   I’m not even sure any right tackle even makes $15 per.  If you have numbers that say otherwise, please show them.    I’d peg Smith around 12-14m per.  

[NewColtsFan 9,771]

2 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

[stitches 8,703]

26 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Right tackles don’t make closer to 20 than 10.   None of them.    If you have numbers that say otherwise, please show them.    I’d peg Smith around 12-14m per.  

Jack Conklin got 3/42 last year. Braden has been better than him at the same stage of their careers. + add jump in cap next year

Trent Brown got 6/66 last year. 16.5M average. Braden has been better than him. + add jump in cap next year

Lane Johnson was the highest paid OT in the league until recently and plays RT  4/72M, 18M average. 

 

Also, again... keep in mind the cap is very likely to explode again next year. 

[chad72 7,876]

26 minutes ago, stitches said:

Jack Conklin got 3/42 last year. Braden has been better than him at the same stage of their careers. + add jump in cap next year

Trent Brown got 6/66 last year. 16.5M average. Braden has been better than him. + add jump in cap next year

Lane Johnson was the highest paid OT in the league until recently and plays RT  4/72M, 18M average. 

 

Also, again... keep in mind the cap is very likely to explode again next year. 

 

I think they will settle around 4 years $65 mil. or something close.

[stitches 8,703]

32 minutes ago, stitches said:

Jack Conklin got 3/42 last year. Braden has been better than him at the same stage of their careers. + add jump in cap next year

Trent Brown got 6/66 last year. 16.5M average. Braden has been better than him. + add jump in cap next year

Lane Johnson was the highest paid OT in the league until recently and plays RT  4/72M, 18M average. 

 

Also, again... keep in mind the cap is very likely to explode again next year. 

correction here 4/66 for Trent Brown, not 6/66... 

[NewColtsFan 9,771]

29 minutes ago, stitches said:

Jack Conklin got 3/42 last year. Braden has been better than him at the same stage of their careers. + add jump in cap next year

Trent Brown got 6/66 last year. 16.5M average. Braden has been better than him. + add jump in cap next year

Lane Johnson was the highest paid OT in the league until recently and plays RT  4/72M, 18M average. 

 

Also, again... keep in mind the cap is very likely to explode again next year. 

Thanks for the numbers. 
 

I don’t think the cap will explode.  I think the cap is going to go up modestly.   The deal management worked out with the players was for the figures to be smoothed out over a number of years.   The numbers this year are actually higher than they technically should be based on what revenue was lost.   But neither side wanted the salary cap to drop too far.   So it’s actually a bit artificially high this year.   And while it should go up next year,  neither side wanted a spike the other direction either.  
 

If I had to give a wild guess for next year?  Back to around $200 +/-

[stitches 8,703]

11 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Thanks for the numbers. 
 

I don’t think the cap will explode.  I think the cap is going to go up modestly.   The deal management worked out with the players was for the figures to be smoothed out over a number of years.   The numbers this year are actually higher than they technically should be based on what revenue was lost.   But neither side wanted the salary cap to drop too far.   So it’s actually a bit artificially high this year.   And while it should go up next year,  neither side wanted a spike the other direction either.  
 

If I had to give a wild guess for next year?  Back to around $200 +/-

No idea what the number will be. I've seen estimates between 209M(spotrac) and 227.5M(OTC). Which would be pretty big jump in either case. That's like... between 16% and 26% jump. 

[Shafty138 1,495]

15 hours ago, AustinnKaine said:

AC retiring might actually benefit the line. Also, no disrespect to 74 definitely the most underrated tackle to have played the last 10 years and deserves ring of honor imo. I'm just sayying that cap hit was heavy. If we can draft a young guy or pay a mid tier LT for a stop gap year I think that would be okay. Im imagining heavy run and heavy boot rollouts this year. So I don't think a top pass pro guy is required right now. Obviously we want to find our guy soon though. 56 deserves a running mate. 

Ring of honor? Really ... He was good, but if AC is ring worthy, so are most above avg. Players.... Not much of a ring at that point.

[DattMavis 42]

I love olinemen in the draft. I would be fine if we draft both a LT and a RG in the first 4 rounds. I’d rather we look at CB and EDGE in free agency.

[jvan1973 5,610]

7 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Where so u get that Smith will male 10 million a year? Have looked at the top  right tackle salaries? This Oline is bout to get very expensive. So alot of our cap will be in our Oline and a WSL. How will we invest in the skill positions?

The best at their positions in the league.   Not average players

[jvan1973 5,610]

4 hours ago, Shafty138 said:

Ring of honor? Really ... He was good, but if AC is ring worthy, so are most above avg. Players.... Not much of a ring at that point.

He was as much a staple as Bill Brooks.   Not saying he should or shouldn't,  but AC was a stud and played his whole career here

[ar1888 42]

We also have to have future money for Darius Leonard at the same time as Nelson, and Smith. Im guessing we go LT early in the draft. Edge and WR in free agency. I just have the feeling it will be a second tier WR. 

[TomDiggs 577]

Again in terms of projecting values out, this all depends on how we see Braden Smith valued. 

 

I said to go high at $10M a year based on a few things:

 

1) If you asked many people is Braden Smith a top-5 RT, most would say no. I think he is. either way a top-5 RT slots in at an AAV of $10M a year right now

 

2) Most of the guys getting top $ at RT got that top dollar by getting it on the open market. Lane Johnson is the exception. However, the Eagles gave him that extension when there was originally talk about him moving to LT as Peters aged. The guys that signed extensions with their current teams got $10M a year or less. 

 

3) This is to say I think Smith can totally get over $10M a year if he hits the open market and wants to test the waters. However, if the Colts looked to extend him now and give him financial security as a 2nd round pick that has not made much money yet in his career and did so in a year where the cap came down and a lot of players are going to take less money if they are not a superstar, I think him signing a deal averaging $10M a year would be a win for him and the Colts

 

 

At the end of the day, my entire point of this thread was to simply point out that us investing $50-$55M in a starting OL out of a future cap of around $200-$220M is very, very doable and arguably reasonable in terms of how Ballard likes to build through the trenches. Having an OL tie up 25% of your cap and a combined OL and QB tie up less than 40% of your cap for the next 3-4 years is actually very, very reasonable.

 

I have admittedly been a big advocate for Trent Williams. He is aging, sure. But he has shown no signs at all of slipping. And he even has one less year of wear and tear on his body from sitting out a year with the whole tumor fiasco where Washington really didn't do right by him with their medical team. So would I throw a 4 year deal at him with big money where the only guaranteed money was paid out in the first two years and then there were salaries on the back end that can easily allow a cut if the performance dips? Absolutely.

 

Either way, this was really to just get our base chatting about all this since the canned narrative everyone is spitting out is the same narrative that is being fed to fans from the media that says "they'll have too much tied up in their OL with the extension for Kelly and the upcoming extensions for Nelson and Smith." I'm just saying if we managed things the way guys like Mike Bluem have been, then we can comfortably invest in a top FA  LT if we wanted to without it being overly painful downstream. 

[EastStreet 10,310]

22 hours ago, TomDiggs said:

Thought this might deserve a place for chat and discussion since I am seeing people say things about OL and future spending and not being able to afford big investments in free agents due to our upcoming extensions, etc. So wanted to lay out my thoughts after I have been dissecting this in my brain for a bit. lol. 

 

 

 

I would say a majority of our fan base has said something along the lines of:

 

"With the Nelson and Smith extensions coming and with having to pay Kelly, we probably invest in a 1st round LT to replace AC since we cannot spend big there and sink all of our cost in the OL"

 

On the surface that is sound logic. But dig in and we can absolutely spend big at LT if we really truly want to. 

 

Example:

 

How much were the cap charges for our OL in 2020?

 

AC- $17M

Q- $6.6M

Kelly- $15.4M

Glow- $6.9M

Smith- $2.0M

 

Total: $47.9M

 

This was with us also paying $52.8M to QBs in cap space.

 

So fast forward to this year:

 

Our top 4 cost $32.5M plus whatever we pay the LT

 

But here is the beauty.....Kelly's guaranteed money is over after this year and his base salaries drop. So in 2022 our cap hits are:

 

Kelly- $7.5M

Q- Fifth year option equal to the franchise tag based on provisions met....currently that is $14.5M....likely a bit higher next year.

 

At that point Glow is gone and Smith gets his new deal kicking in. Let's assume he gets one and it pays him around what a top-10 to top-5 RT makes....that's $8M-$10M a year....I say go with the high and figure $10M

 

We would be at $32M plus that LT plus a new RG

 

Basically if we had a second round RG penciled in at $1.5-$2M then our cap number for the OL wouldn't be much higher than 2020 was. 

 

Really our cap specialists (the Mike Bluems of the world) have us sitting pretty. if we stagger the extensions we can easily handle and manage the hit.

 

Q is likely gonna get around $18M or so a year on the new deal. Smith maybe $10M. Add them to Kelly and we are around $35-$38M. Add a young RG to that and it is $37-$40M.

 

That means that a $15-18M LT puts us in the ballpark of $50-55M downstream....which looks rough....but then you consider this:

 

We paid starting OL and QBs $100M in 2020. Wentz is gonna be a $25M guy if he hits....we can easily handle $50-$55M on the OL IFFFFF we want to. 

 

Factor in that w the new TV deal, 2022 or 2023 cap numbers could be anywhere from $220M-$230M and we are sitting pretty (even if the league has to borrow $10M or so per both years from future caps to make up for this year's artificially high cap level based on last year's revenue).

 

I say all this simply to say that if there is a great LT prospect at 21 then sure go for it. Helps us a lot and makes financial sense. But we can absolutely afford a top-notch LT in free agency if we want to. And if that deal is in the 3-4 year range it is even more manageable downstream.

 

Just food for thought . 

Purely my opinion, but I think Q gets 19-20M/year if the cap goes back to normal. 

 

Smith will easily get top 5 pay if he has another good year of grades, and I expect him to have his best year ever in 21. Top 5 pay ranges from 11-18M currently (will likely go up before Smith gets his contract), and I would expect him closer to the top of that range. And he's a much better RT than Kelly is a C IMO (and Kelly get 12.5M and is the top paid C), so just factor that, and Kelly's contract (those intra-team things will matter).

 

 

 

[Superman 9,632]

10 hours ago, stitches said:

Jack Conklin got 3/42 last year. Braden has been better than him at the same stage of their careers. + add jump in cap next year

Trent Brown got 6/66 last year. 16.5M average. Braden has been better than him. + add jump in cap next year

Lane Johnson was the highest paid OT in the league until recently and plays RT  4/72M, 18M average. 

 

Also, again... keep in mind the cap is very likely to explode again next year. 

 

Braden in 2020 was better than Brown and Conklin were in their contract years, but I don't know if that's what the negotiations are going to be based on. I think Conklin is a good comp for him, though. That $15-16m/year projection is probably good.

 

(I don't think Lane Johnson is a good comp, because of his age, the length of his contract, and the structure, which is heavily backloaded, including three * years, that bring the average up to $18m. His average cap hit before those last three years is $10.7m; it shoots up to $18m/year for 2026-28. The average over the life of the contract is more like $13m/year.)

 

But Conklin and Brown reached free agency, which impacts their market, so we should adjust for that if the Colts sign Smith a year early. Also, tacking on a multi year extension allows the Colts to spread out Smith's cap hits, reducing his average cap hits. So a four year extension with ~$64m in new money, but spread out over 2021-2025, actually works out to more like $13m/year, for cap purposes. And you can backload it to keep the cap hits a little lower the first two years, with some back end flexibility, which might be absorbed by an increasing cap in 2023 (conservatively, although probably more like 2022).

 

Same principle applies for Nelson, and Leonard. As it stands right now, I'm not worried about having to pay anyone else over the next two seasons. Wentz is under contract through 2024, and even if he's outstanding the soonest we'd be talking about an extension would be after 2022. Turay, Lewis, Campbell, Okereke, Ya-Sin, Willis, etc., all have a lot more to do before we start talking about paying them. 

 

So if the 2022 cap hits $210m (conservatively, I think), and we have Nelson at $20m/year (but averaged out at ~$16m), Smith at $13m/year, and Kelly's cap hit at $7.5m that year, and likely rookie contract replacements at LT and RG, we're talking about $40m in cap hits on the OL. That's less than 20% of the cap, not 35% like you mentioned earlier. Now if you want to sign Trent Williams or another highly paid LT, that changes things, but that's why I don't think we're going to be in the market for a big contract LT.

 

Edit: There's currently no market for a guard to make $20m/year. Highest paid guard is Brandon Brooks, at $14.1m/year. There are three left tackles making $20m/year (including Ronnie Stanley at $19.75m/year), then eight more tackles making between $14-18m/year, then Brooks. So even slotting Nelson at $20m/year, right now, is pretty aggressive. Could probably get him at $16m/year right now, I think.

[TomDiggs 577]

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

So if the 2022 cap hits $210m (conservatively, I think), and we have Nelson at $20m/year (but averaged out at ~$16m), Smith at $13m/year, and Kelly's cap hit at $7.5m that year, and likely rookie contract replacements at LT and RG, we're talking about $40m in cap hits on the OL. That's less than 20% of the cap, not 35% like you mentioned earlier. Now if you want to sign Trent Williams or another highly paid LT, that changes things, but that's why I don't think we're going to be in the market for a big contract LT.

Agreed on all this and the entire post really.

 

I will say that while I do not expect the Colts to go after a big name LT, i am in the camp that is entirely comfortable with them doing so. Even if it meant 35% of the cap on a line in the future as another poster mentioned. But that's just me. If I had a choice of whether to pay big money for a LT, DE/Edge or WR this off-season (which seem to be the markets with some names that could command the big money) then I would throw it at Trent Williams first even with his age. 

 

If I saw an other-worldly WR out there maybe i would change my tune. But if Allen Robinson is the closest thing to that, I don't want to pay him Hopkins, Thomas, Julio, etc money. 

 

I would love to spend on an edge that was a true difference-maker (even over a LT). They rarely hit the open market and seem to be harder to hit on when projecting in drafts. Not sure how many true difference makers will be out there. Ngakoue is really the only one i would go all out for based on talent, age, etc. 

 

In all honesty what I'd love to see is us use our cap space to extend guys and then to kill the middle market. 

 

If this is a season where experts expect the middle tier guys to struggle for deals and have to take one year "prove it" deals, i would love to own that market and get 5 or so good players rather than splurge on one great one.

 

 

[Superman 9,632]

5 minutes ago, TomDiggs said:

If this is a season where experts expect the middle tier guys to struggle for deals and have to take one year "prove it" deals, i would love to own that market and get 5 or so good players rather than splurge on one great one.

 

That's how we got Rhodes, right?

 

And Michael Bidwell just voiced that same thought today. He said he expects a lot of talent to change teams this season, primarily due to a bunch of teams needing to get under the cap. 

 

I'm not that concerned with WR, personally. I'd take Allen Robinson, but I don't think that's where I want to spend cap this year. 

[OhioColt 127]

I know I haven't been free to be online for a while but here goes.

 

The top LG makes $14.781 million and see Nelson looking at a 6 year deal around $99 million (16.5m)

 

The top RT makes $18 million year and see Smith getting a 6 year deal around $99 million as well (16.5m)

 

Not really worried about the contracts for Glowinksi nor Kelly.  Glowinski probably on a shorter lease to play and Kelly not far behind within next 2-4 year range suspect.  See us with a cheap rental in FA and draft a rookie LT.

[AustinnKaine 364]

19 hours ago, Shafty138 said:

Ring of honor? Really ... He was good, but if AC is ring worthy, so are most above avg. Players.... Not much of a ring at that point.

You're kidding right? So Chris Hinton is worthy but AC isn't?

[Myles 4,359]

Braden Smith allowed 1 QB hit and 0 sacks in 2020 with Rivers as QB.  

 

[#12. 1,130]

29 minutes ago, AustinnKaine said:

You're kidding right? So Chris Hinton is worthy but AC isn't?

 

Are you serious?  Hinton was a 7 time Pro Bowler, 5 time All Pro. 

 

Castonzo was a solid player, a solid player who got a little better with age.  AC was a good Colt, but should be replaceable with #21.

[jvan1973 5,610]

27 minutes ago, AustinnKaine said:

You're kidding right? So Chris Hinton is worthy but AC isn't?

Chris went to 7 Pro bowls and was all pro 4 times in Indy.    Plus,   the ring was pretty bare when he went up.   I have no problem with AC going up BTW 

[Myles 4,359]

I wouldn't put AC in the ring of honor.    I'm strict when it comes to that kind of stuff.  I cannot remember a time when people said that AC was one of the 3 best Colts players.

[AustinnKaine 364]

7 hours ago, jvan1973 said:

Chris went to 7 Pro bowls and was all pro 4 times in Indy.    Plus,   the ring was pretty bare when he went up.   I have no problem with AC going up BTW 

yeah but we all know AC is historically snubbed. 

[AustinnKaine 364]

8 hours ago, Myles said:

Braden Smith allowed 1 QB hit and 0 sacks in 2020 with Rivers as QB.  

 

yeah I think he is underrated too. 

[jvan1973 5,610]

15 minutes ago, AustinnKaine said:

yeah but we all know AC is historically snubbed. 

I don't disagree,   but Chris was better

[AustinnKaine 364]

36 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

I don't disagree,   but Chris was better

Yeah I don't think AC would have quite the amount of accolades but I feel like he has been one of the top colts for a long time. 

[jvan1973 5,610]

22 minutes ago, AustinnKaine said:

Yeah I don't think AC would have quite the amount of accolades but I feel like he has been one of the top colts for a long time. 

I love AC, but he isn't going on before Tarik Glenn