Contract Value for Big Q, Leonard, and Braden Smith

[runthepost 805]

Although these 3 players will be free agents next year, the contracts of these free agents below will forecast what it may cost to resign our players. Note the values are predictions for contracts that will be given.

Lavonte David (ILB) *3yrs 40-50M

Brandon Scherff (G) *5yrs 75-85M

Taylor Moton (RT)     *4yrs 65-72M

I understand David and Leonard play 2 different positions and schemes but the APY may be a starting point.

[jvan1973 5,602]

19 minutes ago, runthepost said:

Although these 3 players will be free agents next year, the contracts of these free agents below will forecast what it may cost to resign our players. Note the values are predictions for contracts that will be given.

Lavonte David (ILB) *3yrs 40-50M

Brandon Scherff (G) *5yrs 75-85M

Taylor Moton (RT)     *4yrs 65-72M

I understand David and Leonard play 2 different positions and schemes but the APY may be a starting point.

The colts have the 5th year on Q

[indyagent17 810]

That is why being a GM in the NFL requires patience and skill. Its going to cost to keep them but it is very necessary 

 

[CurBeatElite 1,342]

53 minutes ago, runthepost said:

Although these 3 players will be free agents next year, the contracts of these free agents below will forecast what it may cost to resign our players. Note the values are predictions for contracts that will be given.

Lavonte David (ILB) *3yrs 40-50M

Brandon Scherff (G) *5yrs 75-85M

Taylor Moton (RT)     *4yrs 65-72M

I understand David and Leonard play 2 different positions and schemes but the APY may be a starting point.

 

I understand that G's typically make less than tackles in the NFL.  That said, I find it hard to believe Q will get a smaller contract than Smith as Q is a 3x 1st team all-pro and 3x pro-bowler, whereas Smith is a very solid RT, but not widely considered the best in the league at his position.  Of course if they move Q to LT and he excels, that totally changes the scenario.  Additionally, Scherff is 29 and has been named 1st team all-pro 1x over a longer career than Q.  Q is 24 and has been named to 3 consecutive 1st team all-pro.  The fact that he's 5 years younger and has a better resume leads me to believe he'll be getting more $ than Scherff.

 

Also, I expect Leonard to set the market.  Lavonte David is good and all, but he was a 1st team all pro in 2013, and a 2nd team all-pro in 2016 and 2020.  He's also 31 years old.  Leonard is 25 and the only other LBer in the NFL who has been an all-pro the past 3 years is Bobby Wagner.  Wagner at age 31 is making $18 mill per year... unless he gets hurt, my guess is a 26 year old Leonard will be looking at atleast that, if he has his 4th consecutive all-pro year, I'm thinking he'll be looking at $20 mil/year (so if L. David gets 3 years $40-50 mil, Leonard would be getting 3 years $54-60 Mil).

[Shepman 164]

Unfortunately we are going to be losing some good to great players over time as the wallet just won't be big enough.  On a positive note we should start getting draft compensation for their big signings.

[Mackrel829 197]

Give them all whatever they want. This was Ballard's plan from the very beginning. Draft well, and save your cap space to pay your own guys.

 

Some are expecting big splashes in FA this year but I think we'll see more of the same. I see one big signing - probably a pass rusher - and value deals beyond that to save money for guys like this.

[CurBeatElite 1,342]

2 minutes ago, Mackrel829 said:

Give them all whatever they want. This was Ballard's plan from the very beginning. Draft well, and save your cap space to pay your own guys.

 

Some are expecting big splashes in FA this year but I think we'll see more of the same. I see one big signing - probably a pass rusher - and value deals beyond that to save money for guys like this.

 

Exactly.. I think Ballard wants to keep our core of 'irreplaceable' guys together.  These are guys that are either absolute studs (e.g., Leonard and Q) or guys who play at high levels at positions which are not easily replaced (e.g., Stewart, Smith).  Then, he's willing to save $ by letting guys who are replaceable (either, they are slightly above average players or play positions which can be easily replaced in the draft or by cheaper FAs - an example of guys who played at a high-level but in positions which can be replaced easily would be Anthony Walker or Marlon Mack, both of whom I expect to be gone after this season and being replaced by guys who are still on rookie contracts).  

[Wentzszn 10,410]

I won’t be shocked if smith and Leonard are signed before the season starts.

[Moosejawcolt 1,694]

4 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

I won’t be shocked if smith and Leonard are signed before the season starts.

I keep my options open. I dont know how they can afford to pay all three. Especially when 2 of the three r going to want huge money for positions that have lesser value than other more important positions 

[BlueShoe 846]

All I have to say about paying Q is.....
 

 

[NewColtsFan 9,734]

1 hour ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I keep my options open. I dont know how they can afford to pay all three. Especially when 2 of the three r going to want huge money for positions that have lesser value than other more important positions 

These positions have lesser value to YOU.  They do not have lesser value to Ballard, Reich, the coordinators, and their teammates. 

[Moosejawcolt 1,694]

2 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

These positions have lesser value to YOU.  They do not have lesser value to Ballard, Reich, the coordinators, and their teammates. 

We shall c

[NewColtsFan 9,734]

24 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

We shall c

 

So....    you think we're going to trade one or more of them?

 

We're not going to let them walk for nothing.

 

How would Ballard explain trading one or more of the best players on his team?     You think we'll get equal value in return?

 

It would be a disaster in the locker room, where Ballard has made the culture of the team a priority.    He'd be blowing that up.

 

You seem to think there's only one blueprint toward building a successful team.    And that Ballard is unaware of it, and is going to have to scramble to fix what he has broken.

 

I don't think you're about as off course as you can be....

 

[Wentzszn 10,410]

Looks like Darius might be signed to a extension tomorrow. Jason from for the Colture said Darius fans will be happy tomorrow and Darius tweeted this out.

 

 

[Orioles22 297]

That would be one less thing to worry about if Leonard signs and get us closer to knowing what kind of money we'll have for free agents.

If you can lock in Leonard, along with Buckner, Stewart and Moore already under contract, you'd have the defense set by adding Lawson and someone like Lattimore.

[Zoltan 749]

22 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Looks like Darius might be signed to a extension tomorrow. Jason from for the Colture said Darius fans will be happy tomorrow and Darius tweeted this out.

 

 

Well deserved, if it is a new contract

[Wentzszn 10,410]

If it is a extension I am going to assume Smith won’t be far behind. 

[Zoltan 749]

The only contract that I am scared to see will be Nelson's new contract. It is well deserved but it will be hard to give huge money to a guard. Going from the mindset that you are paying premium for a nonpremium position. Which I do think there is a solid argument that Guard is the 3 or 4 most important lineman position behind Center, and Left tackle and maybe right tackle.

 

But  Like I said the guy has earned the contract

[NewColtsFan 9,734]

3 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

If it is a extension I am going to assume Smith won’t be far behind. 

Yup!   Precisely!   That’s how this works.  

[Zoltan 749]

I imagine Big Qs extension will look like Zack Martins 6 year, $84,000,000 contract, including a $20,000,000 signing bonus, $40,000,000 guaranteed

[Moosejawcolt 1,694]

48 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

So....    you think we're going to trade one or more of them?

 

We're not going to let them walk for nothing.

 

How would Ballard explain trading one or more of the best players on his team?     You think we'll get equal value in return?

 

It would be a disaster in the locker room, where Ballard has made the culture of the team a priority.    He'd be blowing that up.

 

You seem to think there's only one blueprint toward building a successful team.    And that Ballard is unaware of it, and is going to have to scramble to fix what he has broken.

 

I don't think you're about as off course as you can be....

 

Bellichek. Graded a player put a price tag on that postion and would not budge. He lost and traded players. Never heard of his locker room imploding and it worked out fine for him.

Just now, Zoltan said:

I imagine Big Qs extension will look like Zack Martins 6 year, $84,000,000 contract, including a $20,000,000 signing bonus, $40,000,000 guaranteed

Scary eh....

[Moosejawcolt 1,694]

5 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

The only contract that I am scared to see will be Nelson's new contract. It is well deserved but it will be hard to give huge money to a guard. Going from the mindset that you are paying premium for a nonpremium position. Which I do think there is a solid argument that Guard is the 3 or 4 most important lineman position behind Center, and Left tackle and maybe right tackle.

 

But  Like I said the guy has earned the contract

U had me agreeing with me till your last sentence lol

[Zoltan 749]

1 minute ago, Moosejawcolt said:

U had me agreeing with me till your last sentence lol

 

Well that's the hard part because I can't see us letting him walk or trading him, he is the heart of the offense

[NewColtsFan 9,734]

7 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Bellichek. Graded a player put a price tag on that postion and would not budge. He lost and traded players. Never heard of his locker room imploding and it worked out fine for him.

Scary eh....

I think you’re going to be stunned.   Don’t know if you saw that there's supposed to be a big announcement tomorrow from Leonard.  The expectation is the announcement of his new contract. 
 

Of the three, he’d be the most likely not to get a big expensive deal.  Quinton and Smith will get theirs as they play the OL.   Q might not get his until next year, but he WILL get his. 

 

So, you’re going to be 0 for 3 soon enough. 
 

Be prepared for disappointment. 
 

[AwesomeAustin 711]

They are 3 of our top 6 players. You have to pay them.  You don’t get better by letting your best players walk.  

[Colts1324 474]

5 years/90 million, 46 guaranteed

[Stoney 72]

3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

These positions have lesser value to YOU.  They do not have lesser value to Ballard, Reich, the coordinators, and their teammates. 

No, he’s not wrong. He’s saying if you’re breaking the bank for players, you hope it’s for positions like QB, DE, LT, CB. Unfortunately we haven’t found any superstars at those positions in the draft yet so paying big for a LG & RT will have to do for now. I would break the bank for Big Q any day of the week tho.. even tho he’s a G he still completely transforms the line.

[NewColtsFan 9,734]

25 minutes ago, Stoney said:

No, he’s not wrong. He’s saying if you’re breaking the bank for players, you hope it’s for positions like QB, DE, LT, CB. Unfortunately we haven’t found any superstars at those positions in the draft yet so paying big for a LG & RT will have to do for now. I would break the bank for Big Q any day of the week tho.. even tho he’s a G he still completely transforms the line.

Of course he’s wrong.   There isn’t one blueprint for success.   There are various ways to succeed.   
 

Is it always wrong to take a guard in the first round?   Belichick did when he drafted Logan Mankins.    KC doesn’t have a first round wide receiver.   How is that possible, they’ve been to the last two Super Bowls.   When Carolina was very good a few years ago,  both their corners were Day 3 guys.   In fact at the height of the Legion of Boom, both if their corners were Day 3 guys.  Sherman and Browner.   Pittsburgh and Green Bay have both known great success.   I don’t think either has had a first round WR during the eras of Rogers and Roethlisberger.   
 

There are all sorts of examples of different ways to win.   The idea that there is a one size fits all blue print for success is folly. 
 

 

[2006Coltsbestever 22,585]

16 minutes ago, Stoney said:

No, he’s not wrong. He’s saying if you’re breaking the bank for players, you hope it’s for positions like QB, DE, LT, CB. Unfortunately we haven’t found any superstars at those positions in the draft yet so paying big for a LG & RT will have to do for now. I would break the bank for Big Q any day of the week tho.. even tho he’s a G he still completely transforms the line.

It depends on how great the player is at his respective position. For example Lawrence Taylor was a pass rushing LB (OLB) and I would pay him/keep him over any QB that isn't in the top 5 and QB is the important position on the field. Who would you break the bank for, between Big Q and a QB like Jimmy G or Jameis Winston who are average QB's? Outside of Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady, Jackson, and Watson there are definitely players that play LB or Guards that are more valuable than some QB's, DE's, LT's, etc..

[Mackrel829 197]

2 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

It depends on how great the player is at his respective position. For example Lawrence Taylor was a pass rushing LB (OLB) and I would pay him/keep him over any QB that isn't in the top 5 and QB is the important position on the field. Who would you break the bank for, between Big Q and a QB like Jimmy G or Jameis Winston who are average QB's? Outside of Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady, Jackson, and Watson there are definitely players that play LB or Guards that are more valuable than some QB's, DE's, LT's, etc..

 

This.

 

People are placing far too much stock in the cliche that guards are less valuable. The average guard is less valuable than the average tackle, but the best guard in the league is way more valuable than like 90% of the NFL.

[Wentzszn 10,410]

So Zach Hicks says today’s news on Leonard is not about a extension. Maybe something WWE related.

[2006Coltsbestever 22,585]

18 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

So Zach Hicks says today’s news on Leonard is not about a extension. Maybe something WWE related.

[stitches 8,666]

50 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

So Zach Hicks says today’s news on Leonard is not about a extension. Maybe something WWE related.

 

 

 

 

[lollygagger8 3,402]

21 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

 

 

 

 

Excellent concept and proud of him for doing that. 

 

Not the greatest name though.....even if that is his nickname. 

[NewColtsFan 9,734]

1 hour ago, Chloe6124 said:

So Zach Hicks says today’s news on Leonard is not about a extension. Maybe something WWE related.

Does anyone think DL would be announcing a foundation if he didn’t have assurances that he’d be with the Colts for years to come?   
 

That’s my story and I’m sticking to it!    

[shasta519 3,061]

Right now, those three cost ~$13M/year. After this, they will cost 4x that amount.

 

They deserve it...and will get it...but the cap situation is going to get very complicated with a QB under contract as well (if Wentz pans out). I don't envy Ballard and Bluem here.

 

Me personally...I would be very interested in at least finding out what type of premium draft capital I might be able to get for one of those players. Not saying I am looking to trade them at all...but there's more than one way to play it going forward and Ballard will explore options. It is just very difficult to outspend every team on the OL and carry a top 10 QB salary (if Wentz plays well enough to get extended) for an extended period.

 

 

[TomDiggs 543]

9 hours ago, shasta519 said:

Right now, those three cost ~$13M/year. After this, they will cost 4x that amount.

 

They deserve it...and will get it...but the cap situation is going to get very complicated with a QB under contract as well (if Wentz pans out). I don't envy Ballard and Bluem here.

 

Me personally...I would be very interested in at least finding out what type of premium draft capital I might be able to get for one of those players. Not saying I am looking to trade them at all...but there's more than one way to play it going forward and Ballard will explore options. It is just very difficult to outspend every team on the OL and carry a top 10 QB salary (if Wentz plays well enough to get extended) for an extended period.

 

 

 

This is a very solid point. That said we are also going to see cap savings compared to years past at key positions.

 

Example:

 

2020:

 

QB- Rivers ($25M)

OC- Kelly ($15.4M)

DT- Buckner ($23.4M)

 

Total- $63.8M

 

2022:

 

QB- Wentz ($22M)

OC- Kelly ($7.5M)

DT- Buckner ($16.0M)

 

Total- $45.5M

 

And that does not even count the $21M+ in cap space that comes as Jacoby is gone and the $14.5M from Hilton, etc.

 

All I am getting at is that Big Q, Leonard and Smith can make a combined $50M-$52M annually and our overall cap charge would look similar in 2022 to what it was in 2021 just with the cap savings in 2022 from QB, Center and 3-tech DT alone. 

 

What I do think is important for fans to consider is that because f the downstream effects, we will continue to see the Colts add maybe 1-2 key pieces in FA per off-season and will not see us splurge anytime soon even if we are close to a big contending window. 

 

The better we draft, the more we have to pay our own eventually. But it is a good problem to have. 

[Superman 9,561]

11 hours ago, shasta519 said:

Right now, those three cost ~$13M/year. After this, they will cost 4x that amount.

 

They deserve it...and will get it...but the cap situation is going to get very complicated with a QB under contract as well (if Wentz pans out). I don't envy Ballard and Bluem here.

 

Me personally...I would be very interested in at least finding out what type of premium draft capital I might be able to get for one of those players. Not saying I am looking to trade them at all...but there's more than one way to play it going forward and Ballard will explore options. It is just very difficult to outspend every team on the OL and carry a top 10 QB salary (if Wentz plays well enough to get extended) for an extended period.

 

Not sure why the bolded is relevant. They're on cost controlled rookie contracts.

 

I also don't understand why people seem eager to get rid of good, young players after three seasons. You draft well, develop well, then don't reap the benefits of your work?

[runthepost 805]

9 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Not sure why the bolded is relevant. They're on cost controlled rookie contracts.

 

I also don't understand why people seem eager to get rid of good, young players after three seasons. You draft well, develop well, then don't reap the benefits of your work?

Imagine this forum if we had a QB of Mahomes level making 40 + million

[shasta519 3,061]

9 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Not sure why the bolded is relevant. They're on cost controlled rookie contracts.

 

I also don't understand why people seem eager to get rid of good, young players after three seasons. You draft well, develop well, then don't reap the benefits of your work?

The rookie deal amount isn’t relevant...but it’s meant to show the jump...which is definitely relevant. 
 

We aren’t talking about one player...it’s (3) players. And when you are suddenly paying x times more for the same handful of players...it has an impact on the cap and roster construction (things like efficiency, positional spending and surplus value). And for a forward-thinking GM like Ballard, I imagine those are important aspects. 
 

But I actually said I was not “eager” to trade anyone. I am just open to it if helps balance out cap and roster construction, along with providing premium draft capital that can help the team replace those players or address other areas. 
 

I would guess the number of GMs that actually trade players heading into their second contracts have a much more specific analysis (GMs like Lynch, Grier, Douglas and BB...to name a few). 
 

In my (admittedly novice) opinion, it just seems like having 5 players (out of 51) take up more than half of the cap space is a potentially untenable situation over time.