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Dratek NFL Trade Value Chart (2 models) is now UPDATED!


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This happened in the last 24 hours or so...   Draftek, using projections from OverTheCap.com has predicted the compensatory picks in R's 3-7.

 

I'm not sure if this includes bonus picks awarded for teams who lost Coaches of Color to other franchises.   Was that supposed to kick in this year or next?    I don't see that reflected yet.

 

So, that may be still in the pipeline.

 

Either way.....   take a look.    There is also a simple click to look at what is being called a newer or more frequently used model known as the Rich Hill model.   It appears to be endorsed by Bill Belichick.      It is, what it is.....    same idea and concept,  just somewhat different point valuations.    Worth taking a look. 

 

Enjoy!

 

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=ind

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4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

This happened in the last 24 hours or so...   Draftek, using projections from OverTheCap.com has predicted the compensatory picks in R's 3-7.

 

I'm not sure if this includes bonus picks awarded for teams who lost Coaches of Color to other franchises.   Was that supposed to kick in this year or next?    I don't see that reflected yet.

 

So, that may be still in the pipeline.

 

Either way.....   take a look.    There is also a simple click to look at what is being called a newer or more frequently used model known as the Rich Hill model.   It appears to be endorsed by Bill Belichick.      It is, what it is.....    same idea and concept,  just somewhat different point valuations.    Worth taking a look. 

 

Enjoy!

 

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=ind

 

Based on this, we can actually get the Browns' 1st rounder No.26 and pick No.91 for our pick No.21 if we move back just 5 spots, I like it :) 

 

I have read Rich Hill's articles on PatsPulpit. He is good with numbers. Of course, there will always be a Patriots bias on a Patriots SB Nation article, especially when there are gray areas for interpretation but the quality of his numbers he puts out is a good one. Similarly, I like Scott Kacsmar articles too. 

 

Ultimately, in trades, two hands need to be willing to clap based on a value agreed. The rest is pundit and draft day fan speak fodder.

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It feels like every team nowadays should have their own proprietary draft trade chart. Their analytics departments must have enough information to build better representation of what good value should be for certain picks. Football perspective has their own chart too based on AV:

http://www.footballperspective.com/draft-value-chart/

 

It's interesting just how different they are - the Jimmy Johnson one and the one based on AV. If you believe one(FP) rather than the other(JJ) you can make a killing by trading down a ton.

 

Here's how they differ(I normalized it to the top value - 3000). Here's how different/similar they are:

 

0VjFlE2.png

 

In reality there isn't much of a difference between the old Jimmy Johnson chart and the new Rich Hill chart. In the grand scheme of things they are almost identical. The big difference is with the Football Perspective chart, which values picks outside the top 10 much higher than the other 2 charts... look at the difference there... This is huge. There is TONS of value to be gained by trading down if your team believes something closer to the football perspective value chart vs the other two. 

 

Even though, it's probably not perfect, I tend to lean towards the Football perspective chart being more representative of the actual value of the picks. And Rich Hill is probably my least favorite one because it looks like it overvalues top 10-20 picks even more than Jimmy Johnson. 

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4 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

Based on this, we can actually get the Browns' 1st rounder No.26 and pick No.91 for our pick No.21 if we move back just 5 spots, I like it :) 

 

I have read Rich Hill's articles on PatsPulpit. He is good with numbers. Of course, there will always be a Patriots bias on a Patriots SB Nation article, especially when there are gray areas for interpretation but the quality of his numbers he puts out is a good one. Similarly, I like Scott Kacsmar articles too. 

 

Ultimately, in trades, two hands need to be willing to clap based on a value agreed. The rest is pundit and draft day fan speak fodder.

Your points are key.    It takes two.   The other side has to agree to terms.    And that’s often much harder than it might seem.   But unless someone we love falls,  I see Ballard wanting to trade back and trying to replenish that traded 3rd round pick. 
 

Id love to see that happen....

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3 hours ago, stitches said:

It feels like every team nowadays should have their own proprietary draft trade chart. Their analytics departments must have enough information to build better representation of what good value should be for certain picks. Football perspective has their own chart too based on AV:

http://www.footballperspective.com/draft-value-chart/

 

It's interesting just how different they are - the Jimmy Johnson one and the one based on AV. If you believe one(FP) rather than the other(JJ) you can make a killing by trading down a ton.

 

Here's how they differ(I normalized it to the top value - 3000). Here's how different/similar they are:

 

0VjFlE2.png

 

In reality there isn't much of a difference between the old Jimmy Johnson chart and the new Rich Hill chart. In the grand scheme of things they are almost identical. The big difference is with the Football Perspective chart, which values picks outside the top 10 much higher than the other 2 charts... look at the difference there... This is huge. There is TONS of value to be gained by trading down if your team believes something closer to the football perspective value chart vs the other two. 

 

Even though, it's probably not perfect, I tend to lean towards the Football perspective chart being more representative of the actual value of the picks. And Rich Hill is probably my least favorite one because it looks like it overvalues top 10-20 picks even more than Jimmy Johnson. 

I always assumed that while these charts are good as a baseline, that they can't be static. Every draft class is different, and you would have to increase or decrease value based on how you place players in tiers.

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Just now, ColtV said:

I always assumed that while these charts are good as a baseline, that they can't be static. Every draft class is different, and you would have to increase or decrease value based on how you place players in tiers.

Yep, I've been thinking about that too. Making adjustments based both on your evaluation of the class and the picks you have and on your own roster might be a good idea. I wonder if NFL teams actually do this. Some probably do it, but I have a sneaky suspicion that most don't. 

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7 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

Based on this, we can actually get the Browns' 1st rounder No.26 and pick No.91 for our pick No.21 if we move back just 5 spots, I like it :) 

 

I have read Rich Hill's articles on PatsPulpit. He is good with numbers. Of course, there will always be a Patriots bias on a Patriots SB Nation article, especially when there are gray areas for interpretation but the quality of his numbers he puts out is a good one. Similarly, I like Scott Kacsmar articles too. 

 

Ultimately, in trades, two hands need to be willing to clap based on a value agreed. The rest is pundit and draft day fan speak fodder.

the similar move I mentioned before was #21 to Green Bay for #29 and #93--I suspect they might be even more interested in moving up than Cleveland. If nothing else, that move would give them a better opportunity.....to not draft a WR again (DWS)

 

I think the Saints would also be interested in moving up but IIRC they don't have a 3rd this year--maybe #21 for #28 and a 2022 2nd rounder? That might really pay off, especially if Brees retires and Winston takes over, in which case I could see the Saints finishing a good deal lower in 2021 than they did this past season.

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5 minutes ago, poilucelt said:

the similar move I mentioned before was #21 to Green Bay for #29 and #93--I suspect they might be even more interested in moving up than Cleveland. If nothing else, that move would give them a better opportunity.....to not draft a WR again (DWS)

 

I think the Saints would also be interested in moving up but IIRC they don't have a 3rd this year--maybe #21 for #28 and a 2022 2nd rounder? That might really pay off, especially if Brees retires and Winston takes over, in which case I could see the Saints finishing a good deal lower in 2021 than they did this past season.

Watch Packers trade up for QB 

Rodgers be like

 

are you kidding me the office GIF

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2 hours ago, poilucelt said:

the similar move I mentioned before was #21 to Green Bay for #29 and #93--I suspect they might be even more interested in moving up than Cleveland. If nothing else, that move would give them a better opportunity.....to not draft a WR again (DWS)

 

I think the Saints would also be interested in moving up but IIRC they don't have a 3rd this year--maybe #21 for #28 and a 2022 2nd rounder? That might really pay off, especially if Brees retires and Winston takes over, in which case I could see the Saints finishing a good deal lower in 2021 than they did this past season.

 

For that reason, I hope Jaylen Waddle drops to #21 and the Packers or some other team like the Ravens in need of a WR do move up. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, chad72 said:

 

For that reason, I hope Jaylen Waddle drops to #21 and the Packers or some other team like the Ravens in need of a WR do move up. 

 

 

the only thing more surprising than Waddle dropping to #21 would be Green Bay then moving up to #21 and actually drafting a WR

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13 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

For that reason, I hope Jaylen Waddle drops to #21 and the Packers or some other team like the Ravens in need of a WR do move up. 

 

 

If he drops that far then he would most likely be the BPA and a steal for the Colts . I would draft him not trade that pick away.    

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Well and there's always good ol' supply and demand.  In drafts like potentially the 2021, people might think it'd take mortgaging the next 3 drafts to get Trevor Lawrence and that might be true if he were the only true 1st round prospect.  But teams these days seem to be getting better at developing QB talent, at least in the short term - we'll see how well that translates to longer term development and staying power for guys like Justin Herbert or Lamar Jackson.  Not to mention health, it could be that the expected QB lifespan is shortened by 5 years given how dual threat QBs are used.  But I digress back to draft value...

 

The #1 pick might be 5,000 points if there were teams to get in a bidding war over the #1 spot.  But there are, for now, 3-5 QBs who could easily be drafted in the top 10, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that QBs go 1-2-3.  Depending on how teams feel about their staff and the prospect, The #1 pick loses some value, I think.  Especially when you consider that there's no such thing as a can't miss prospect, let alone QB.  Maybe a GM who's desparate might go all in.  It really just goes to show that the best teams are those that move up and down the draft and maximize value based on whatever their own scales tell them.

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23 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

For that reason, I hope Jaylen Waddle drops to #21 and the Packers or some other team like the Ravens in need of a WR do move up. 

 

 

Dude seriously? Ha!! We are in need of a WR.... :facepalm: ..............:lol:

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3 minutes ago, Indeee said:

Dude seriously? Ha!! We are in need of a WR.... :facepalm: ..............:lol:

I don't think WR is that big of a need. We could realistically sign Agholor and draft someone on day 3 and I would be fine.

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3 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

I don't think WR is that big of a need. We could realistically sign Agholor and draft someone on day 3 and I would be fine.

Sure... If we get WR or 2 in FA I agree. If not they are coming via draft as they are important...

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