[PFF] Historical draft success for all 32 NFL teams (MERGE)

[stitches]

Here's a statistical analysis for return on investment of our draft picks done by PFF:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-historical-draft-success-for-all-32-nfl-teams

 

The analysis is based on PFF's WAR metric(wins above replacement). 

 

I won't quote the whole thing, but if you are interested, it's worth checking out the whole article with all explanations about their graphs. I will just post the main graphs with what they show... 

 

First... Total WAR added by those 4 classes since 2017:

 

 

Colts are at no. 11 in the league and the Chiefs are no. 1 thanks mainly to Mahomes. It's interesting to see that ALL of the teams with good young QBs drafted in that period are in the top 10 - Chiefs(Mahomes), Ravens(Lamar), Texans(Watson), Bills(Allen), Browns(Mayfield).

 

Also worth pointing out that the top 2 teams are the 2 teams in this year's Superbowl, which underlines the importance of the draft towards building a winning team. And the Texans' value is derived almost single-handedly by Watson - the picks other than Watson have contributed negative WAR combined for the Texans. 

 

The next graph is what PFF calls "draft consistency". It includes not just the WAR, but it weighs it based on draft position and on-field position. Here's where the Colts do very very well:

 

 

The Colts are the best team at draft consistency in the last 4 years. An interesting tidbit from the discussion in the article here is that Mahomes has had total WAR of 11 for those 4 years(best QB - 99.99 percentile drafted at no. 10), while the projected WAR for Nelson(best guard drafted in top 10 - 99.99 percentile) is just 1.6WAR. This just comes to show just how much more valuable QB is than even a generational guard. Here's what PFF writes about Colts' draft consistency and why they come 1st in that metric:

 

Quote

The Indianapolis Colts replace the Chiefs at the top due to an extremely high number of picks that landed in the 75th percentile. Coming back to our example of the Washington Football Team, we note that they were a top-10 draft team over the last four years when we measure consistency instead of overweighting the failure that was the Haskins pick. Their recent draft success is a reason why they are a good quarterback away from becoming an outstanding team.

 

The third graph is weighing the WAR production by round(the example given - top 10 pick succeeding in the 90th percentile usually gives you about 2.0 WAR, while 90th percentile success for a 7th round pick gives you just about 0.2WAR.). Dot's size indicates the weight(round) of each pick :

 

 

Colts again rank very well at no. 2 in the league here.  

 

And here's the last graph in which they take into account positional value:

 

Quote

 

As I have already mentioned, we described draft success as teams might think about it. When a guard at No. 6 becomes a three-time All-Pro player after three years, it’s as good a pick as one could imagine.

 

However, since offensive guards have relatively low value compared to other positions, Nelson lands in “only” the 93rd percentile when compared to the full distribution of all players selected in his range. Of course, this is still exceptional, but it’s a small difference and illustrates that the absolute ceiling for a top-10 guard seems to be the 93rd percentile. After all, it's hard to imagine a better guard than Quenton Nelson.

 

When we measure draft success by comparing each draft pick (non-quarterbacks) to the distribution of outcomes of all players drafted in the same range, we reward the selection of valuable positions. When doing this, we get a pretty good impression of why the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl.

 

 

Still the Colts rank in the top 5. 

 

And finally they ask the question - does that mean that certain GMs are better than others at evaluating draft eligible players and the answer is interesting... 

Quote

 

ARE SOME TEAMS BETTER AT EVALUATING COLLEGE PLAYERS?

The analysis we performed is purely descriptive — it explains what happened. The next questions pose themselves naturally: Does this mean Jason Licht and his scouts are superior talent evaluators? What about Chris Ballard or Mickey Loomis?

 

The answer to these questions is probably no.

 

 

You can read the rationale on the link above... 

[RollerColt]

For the last 4 years, our team has been the most consistent in drafting each year according to PFF:

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-historical-draft-success-for-all-32-nfl-teams

 

Essentially, the way it works is that we have consistently drafted successful players who rate high within their systems. 

[DougDew]

Interesting.  The Eagles are third from the bottom.  HOU is higher than us, and fifth from the top.

 

Tampa Bay is second.  I can't think of anybody they drafted outside of Evans.

[stitches]

Just now, DougDew said:

Interesting.  The Eagles are third from the bottom.  HOU is higher than us, and fifth from the top.

All of the value HOU has is from Deshaun Watson. They say in the article that all other picks combined have negative WAR value in their system. 

[DougDew]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

All of the value HOU has is from Deshaun Watson. They say in the article that all other picks combined have negative WAR value in their system. 

That's a crazy way to rank it.  One player should not skew the results that much.

 

If so, then Kyler Murray must be the reason AZ is the worst, like anybody with any sense thought he should be a number 1 pick in the first place, LOL.

[RollerColt]

3 minutes ago, DougDew said:

That's a crazy way to rank it.  One player should not skew the results that much.

 

If so, then Kyler Murray must be the reason AZ is the worst, like anybody with any sense thought he should be a number 1 pick in the first place, LOL.

It is, that's why they did the rankings in three separate ways. The first one goes off of player value, so of course Mahomes skyrockets the Chiefs to the top. I thought it was interesting though to see that although we haven't hit any "Mahomes" style home runs, we've been very consistent in drafting quality players. 

 

Also, I gotta agree about Kyler, and I like him a lot. 

[BlackTiger]

10 minutes ago, DougDew said:

If so, then Kyler Murray must be the reason AZ is the worst, like anybody with any sense thought he should be a number 1 pick in the first place, LOL.

This is based off of pff rating, and they had him pretty high last year.  I have not followed the rest of their picks closely though.  He had a high QB rating too

[DougDew]

12 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

It is, that's why they did the rankings in three separate ways. The first one goes off of player value, so of course Mahomes skyrockets the Chiefs to the top. I thought it was interesting though to see that although we haven't hit any "Mahomes" style home runs, we've been very consistent in drafting quality players. 

 

Also, I gotta agree about Kyler, and I like him a lot. 

Tampa Bay stood out to me.  They are second with no apparent stars that I can recall.  Brady, Gronk, and Suh were FAs.

 

I thought Murray is the classic case of a team riding the trendy hype wave of athleticism in a Qb, when being able to extend a play by running sideways is only a small part of playing the position. 

[DougDew]

9 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

This is based off of pff rating, and they had him pretty high last year.  I have not followed the rest of their picks closely though.  He had a high QB rating too

Ok.  Watson and Murray rated high, but the teams' draft prowess are polar opposite.  Something seems to be missing.

[RollerColt]

30 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Tampa Bay stood out to me.  They are second with no apparent stars that I can recall.  Brady, Gronk, and Suh were FAs.

 

I thought Murray is the classic case of a team riding the trendy hype wave of athleticism in a Qb, when being able to extend a play by running sideways is only a small part of playing the position. 

Tampa has been low key collecting a great overall team. There's a reason they're the champs, they just needed that lift from the QB. Can they sustain it for next year? There's a pretty good chance. 

[PureLuck]

1 hour ago, BlackTiger said:

This is based off of pff rating, and they had him pretty high last year.  I have not followed the rest of their picks closely though.  He had a high QB rating too

 

Arizona's poor WAR is all about the Josh Rosen pick in 2018, not about Kyler at all. I'm surprised Kyler doesn't have a positive impact that outweighs the negative impact of the Rosen pick though. Still, throwing away a top 10 pick on a QB doesn't bode well for a draft ranking ;)

[DougDew]

31 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

Tampa has been low key collecting a great overall team. There's a reason they're the champs, they just needed that lift from the QB. Can they sustain it for next year? There's a pretty good chance. 

I like Antoine Winfield Jr at FS.  They took him in the second round last spring and he contributed this year.  And their CB (Carlton Davis?) was another recent draft pick that starts in their secondary.  I think he has the length Ballard covets in CBs, but we didn't draft him.  If I'm thinking of the correct corner.

[PureLuck]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

Tampa Bay stood out to me.  They are second with no apparent stars that I can recall.  Brady, Gronk, and Suh were FAs.

 

I thought Murray is the classic case of a team riding the trendy hype wave of athleticism in a Qb, when being able to extend a play by running sideways is only a small part of playing the position. 

 

Devin White and Chris Godwin qualify as stars for me. Finding Godwin in round 3 at a position like WR that is very valuable helps a lot I would guess

[DougDew]

2 minutes ago, PureLuck said:

 

Arizona's poor WAR is all about the Josh Rosen pick in 2018, not about Kyler at all. I'm surprised Kyler doesn't have a positive impact that outweighs the negative impact of the Rosen pick though. Still, throwing away a top 10 pick on a QB doesn't bode well for a draft ranking ;)

Why would you be surprised?  

 

I'm the opposite. I'm surprised that Watson puts HOU very high when they have drafted so poorly.

 

The whole thing seems biased to me, trying to tell us we should look at football like we look at the NBA.

[DougDew]

Just now, PureLuck said:

 

Devin White and Chris Godwin qualify as stars for me. Finding Godwin in round 3 at a position like WR that is very valuable helps a lot I would guess

I think that's right.  I'm merely saying that I don't know TB's roster well enough.  I'm sure they have drafted well throughout the roster in the past 4 years.  Of course, that's one reason why they beat KC so badly.

[PureLuck]

1 minute ago, DougDew said:

Why would you be surprised?  

 

I'm the opposite. I'm surprised that Watson puts HOU very high when they have drafted so poorly.

 

The whole thing seems biased to me, trying to tell us we should look at football like we look at the NBA.

 

Because I think Kyler could be the real deal if the Cardinals find 1 or 2 competent linemen ^^

[Zoltan]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

Tampa Bay stood out to me.  They are second with no apparent stars that I can recall.  Brady, Gronk, and Suh were FAs.

 

I thought Murray is the classic case of a team riding the trendy hype wave of athleticism in a Qb, when being able to extend a play by running sideways is only a small part of playing the position. 

These are the players that really stood out to me in the last 4 drafts

2017

Round 3, No. 84: Chris Godwin Star WR

 

2018

Round 1, No. 12 overall: Vita Vea  DT Starter

Round 2, No. 38 overall: Ronald Jones II RB Split Backfield with Fournette

Round 2, No. 63 overall: Carlton Davis CB Starter

Round 3, No. 94: Alex Cappa Guard Starter

Round 4, No. 117 overall: Jordan Whitehead, S Starter

 

2019

Round 1, No. 5 overall: Devin White, LB Star player Starter

Round 2, No. 39 overall: Sean Bunting, CB Starter

Round 3, No. 94 overall: Jamel Dean, CB backup with meaningful snaps

Round 6, No. 208 overall: Scott Miller, WR good depth WR

 

2020

Round 1, No. 13 overall: Tristan Wirfs, OT Starter

Round 2, No. 45 overall: Antoine Winfield Jr., S Starter potential star safety

[stitches]

12 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

These are the players that really stood out to me in the last 4 drafts

2017

Round 3, No. 84: Chris Godwin Star WR

 

2018

Round 1, No. 12 overall: Vita Vea  DT Starter

Round 2, No. 38 overall: Ronald Jones II RB Split Backfield with Fournette

Round 2, No. 63 overall: Carlton Davis CB Starter

Round 3, No. 94: Alex Cappa Guard Starter

Round 4, No. 117 overall: Jordan Whitehead, S Starter

 

2019

Round 1, No. 5 overall: Devin White, LB Star player Starter

Round 2, No. 39 overall: Sean Bunting, CB Starter

Round 3, No. 94 overall: Jamel Dean, CB backup with meaningful snaps

Round 6, No. 208 overall: Scott Miller, WR good depth WR

 

2020

Round 1, No. 13 overall: Tristan Wirfs, OT Starter

Round 2, No. 45 overall: Antoine Winfield Jr., S Starter potential star safety

Yeah, their whole secondary is made out of drafted players. Plus some OL starters + Vita Vea + Godwin ... They pretty much fielded 10 starters in the Superbowl that were drafted by them in the last 4 years. Godwin alone is probably more valuable than both Leonard and Q

[Myles]

22 minutes ago, PureLuck said:

 

Arizona's poor WAR is all about the Josh Rosen pick in 2018, not about Kyler at all. I'm surprised Kyler doesn't have a positive impact that outweighs the negative impact of the Rosen pick though. Still, throwing away a top 10 pick on a QB doesn't bode well for a draft ranking ;)

Not me.   I think he will be a very good QB and for the most part he is already.    

But he was the #1 pick in the draft.   He's got a career record of 13-18-1.  Career rating of 90.9.  In 2020 he was 18th in the league in QB rating.  (I won't pretend I think QB rating accurately tells us how good a QB is.   It's just another number to bundle with others.  He hasn't led his team to a winning record in either of his seasons.  

Josh Rosen was a top 10 pic in the draft and I think he may be on the 49rs practice squad.  

[DougDew]

16 minutes ago, Zoltan said:

These are the players that really stood out to me in the last 4 drafts

2017

Round 3, No. 84: Chris Godwin Star WR

 

2018

Round 1, No. 12 overall: Vita Vea  DT Starter

Round 2, No. 38 overall: Ronald Jones II RB Split Backfield with Fournette

Round 2, No. 63 overall: Carlton Davis CB Starter

Round 3, No. 94: Alex Cappa Guard Starter

Round 4, No. 117 overall: Jordan Whitehead, S Starter

 

2019

Round 1, No. 5 overall: Devin White, LB Star player Starter

Round 2, No. 39 overall: Sean Bunting, CB Starter

Round 3, No. 94 overall: Jamel Dean, CB backup with meaningful snaps

Round 6, No. 208 overall: Scott Miller, WR good depth WR

 

2020

Round 1, No. 13 overall: Tristan Wirfs, OT Starter

Round 2, No. 45 overall: Antoine Winfield Jr., S Starter potential star safety

Yeah, Carlton Davis was the corner I was thing of.  I remember him from mock drafts that year.

 

We drafted Turay at 52 and then Lewis at 64, right behind Davis.

[chad72]

I also see how Aaron Rodgers has been stuck on a team with average at best drafting. 

[w87r]

20 hours ago, stitches said:

Godwin alone is probably more valuable than both Leonard and Q

 

If that's the case, throw these graphs in the garbage bin.

 

A guy who has (1) 1,000yd season and (0) 10td seasons, in 4 years, is more valuable than 2 multi time All Pros combined.

 

[NewColtsFan]

22 hours ago, stitches said:

Godwin alone is probably more valuable than both Leonard and Q

I don’t know why you felt the need to go there, but you did.   This is several bridges too far from reality.   Good luck selling this to anyone.    Astonishing. 
 

[stitches]

4 hours ago, w87r said:

 

If that's the case, throw these graphs in the garbage bin.

 

A guy who has (1) 1,000yd season and (0) 10td seasons, in 4 years, is more valuable than 2 multi time All Pros combined.

 

WRs are more valuable than guards and LBs. I was speculating about the numbers here because I don't know for sure . If someone has access to their stats, please share them. I wouldn't be surprised though. Godwin ranks very highly in their grading on which the WAR metric is partially based on so... They wrote in the article above that even though Q has been better player at his position he's bringing about the same value as Calvin Ridley who's not been as good as him but plays the more valuable position.  Calvin Ridley is ranked lower than Godwin by PFF. 

[stitches]

3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

I don’t know why you felt the need to go there, but you did.   This is several bridges too far from reality.   Good luck selling this to anyone.    Astonishing. 
 

I was talking in their system. I was adding to Zoltan responding to someone wondering why Tampa Bay is ranked so high(higher than the Colts). This is the reason. Drafted players at valuable positions performing well. 

[w87r]

15 minutes ago, stitches said:

WRs are more valuable than guards and LBs. I was speculating about the numbers here because I don't know for sure . If someone has access to their stats, please share them. I wouldn't be surprised though. Godwin ranks very highly in their grading on which the WAR metric is partially based on so... They wrote in the article above that even though Q has been better player at his position he's bringing about the same value as Calvin Ridley who's not been as good as him but plays the more valuable position.  Calvin Ridley is ranked lower than Godwin by PFF. 

Valuable position? What does it really mean?

 

Just going to throw this out there.

 

Godwin 4yr avg season stats:

61rec 880yds 6tds

 

TY Hilton 2020 stats:(down year)

56rec 762yds 5tds

 

Valuable position vs replaceable player

 

I would be more inclined to say it is way easier to find a WR to put up these very average numbers that Godwin has put up over the first 4 years of his career,(which is what your graphs show 4 years) than it is to find an All Pro Guard and All Pro LBer, let alone them combined.

 

27 WR's had that many yards or more this year, than Godwin avg season.

36 WR's had that many receptions or more this year, than Godwin avg season.

 

So you tell me who is more valuable/replaceable?

 

I actually liked your graphs but the statement that Godwin is more valuable than Q and DL combined is not a good one, and if that is what the graphs indicate, then it takes all the validity out of them.

 

And to be fair I like Godwin, but that statement you made, as NCF said, is just several bridges to far from reality.

[NewColtsFan]

36 minutes ago, stitches said:

I was talking in their system. I was adding to Zoltan responding to someone wondering why Tampa Bay is ranked so high(higher than the Colts). This is the reason. Drafted players at valuable positions performing well. 

Look...   I like Godman...   I really do.   But I looked him up this morning to double check.   In his 4 years with TB, he has one 1,000 yard season.  One.   And it wasn’t even this year.  His two other good seasons were both 840 yards.  
 

Does any of that sound like a guy who is more valuable than Leonard and Q....   together?!?   
Goodness, I don’t think he’s more valuable than either alone.   Certainly not together. 
 

Im impressed that Tampa has hit in such a large number of draft picks these last few days.   I’m even more impressed that guys like Fournette and Brown go there and buy-in.  Props to everyone at TB. 
 

I just think in your enthusiasm to say just how good Godwin is,  I think you went overboard to make a point.   That’s all.... 

[stitches]

8 minutes ago, w87r said:

Valuable position? What does it really mean?

It means it correlates better to winning/losing. Good players to winning, bad players to losing. 

8 minutes ago, w87r said:

Just going to throw this out there.

 

Godwin 4yr avg season stats:

61rec 880yds 6tds

 

TY Hilton 2020 stats:(down year)

56rec 762yds 5tds

 

Valuable position vs replaceable player

Irrelevant. Also, those are surface level stats, they don't tell you whether a player played well or bad. 

 

8 minutes ago, w87r said:

I would be more inclined to say it is way easier to find a WR to put up these very average numbers that Godwin has put up over the first 4 years of his career,(which is what your graphs show 4 years) than it is to find an All Pro Guard and All Pro LBer, let alone them combined.

 

27 WR's had that many yards or more this year, than Godwin avg season.

36 WR's had that many receptions or more this year, than Godwin avg season.

 

So you tell me who is more valuable/replaceable?

It's obvious that you it's harder to find all pro guard than a Godwin type receiver. There are only 4 guards every year with that accomplishment and at least about 10WRs with Godwin's season. This is NOT what valuable mean. It means what Godwin is giving you is more valuable for winning than what Nelson gives you. 

 

8 minutes ago, w87r said:

I actually liked your graphs but the statement that Godwin is more valuable than Q and DL combined is not a good one, and if that is what the graphs indicate, then it takes all the validity out of them.

 

And to be fair I like Godwin, but that statement you made, as NCF said, is just several bridges to far from reality.

They are not my graphs, they are PFF graphs. I'm not sure Q+DL combined are less valuable in their metric than Godwin, but I wouldn't be surprised if they are. Each of them individually I'm almost certain is less valuable in their metric than Godwin. I mean... it either is true or it's not. I made the qualifier of "probably" simply because I don't have the exact numbers, but if I had to guess in their metric Godwin is quite a bit more valuable than Q and DL individually and very possibly more valuable than them combined. 

[stitches]

7 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Look...   I like Godman...   I really do.   But I looked him up this morning to double check.   In his 4 years with TB, he has one 1,000 yard season.  One.   And it wasn’t even this year.  His two other good seasons were both 840 yards.  
 

Does any of that sound like a guy who is more valuable than Leonard and Q....   together?!?   
Goodness, I don’t think he’s more valuable than either alone.   Certainly not together. 
 

Im impressed that Tampa has hit in such a large number of draft picks these last few days.   I’m even more impressed that guys like Fournette and Brown go there and buy-in.  Props to everyone at TB. 
 

I just think in your enthusiasm to say just how good Godwin is,  I think you went overboard to make a point.   That’s all.... 

It doesn't matter what I think and my post was not about what I think. It was about what PFF's numbers likely are saying. You are doing the same thing w87r is doing with the raw numbers. They don't tell you the story of how good/valuable the player has been in PFF's system. Their grades and WAR derived from the grades should tell you whether he's more or less valuable. 

 

If you asked me whether I would trade DL+Q for Godwin my answer would be HELL NO. Now if you ask if I would trade one of them for Godwin... that might be worth a discussion. 

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

WRs are more valuable than guards and LBs. I was speculating about the numbers here because I don't know for sure . If someone has access to their stats, please share them. I wouldn't be surprised though. Godwin ranks very highly in their grading on which the WAR metric is partially based on so... They wrote in the article above that even though Q has been better player at his position he's bringing about the same value as Calvin Ridley who's not been as good as him but plays the more valuable position.  Calvin Ridley is ranked lower than Godwin by PFF. 

I’ve now seen this other post of yours  and thought I’d share some thoughts. 
 

If someone wanted to claim that Godman is better than Q or better than Leonard, I think that’s a debate you can have.   I personally wouldn’t be on that side, but you could have the debate.   
 

But once you made it Godwin better than Leonard AND Q, I think the debate was over before it started.  I think you’re giving too deep of a discount to the WILL and the LG, and giving too much value to WR.   
 

There’s only one Quenton Nelson.   There’s one of a small handful of Leonard’s, maybe 5?   But aren’t there dozens of very good receivers all over the NFL?   Dozens.  And if there are,  doesn’t that pretty much end the debate we're having?    That’s how this strikes me. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

3 minutes ago, stitches said:

It doesn't matter what I think and my post was not about what I think. It was about what PFF's numbers likely are saying. You are doing the same thing w87r is doing with the raw numbers. They don't tell you the story of how good/valuable the player has been in PFF's system. Their grades and WAR derived from the grades should tell you whether he's more or less valuable. 

 

If you asked me whether I would trade DL+Q for Godwin my answer would be HELL NO. Now if you ask if I would trade one of them for Godwin... that might be worth a discussion. 

Sometimes you have to go off your own knowledge and eye test and not go by any metric system or PFF, etc.. There is no way in hell I would trade Q or Leonard straight up for Godwin. Godwin is good but Q and Leonard are great at their respective positions.

[w87r]

7 minutes ago, stitches said:

Now if you ask if I would trade one of them for Godwin... that might be worth a discussion. 

[w87r]

23 minutes ago, stitches said:

They are not my graphs, they are PFF graphs.

Of course they are not your graphs, but this is your thread and you posted the graphs, hence why I said your graphs.

 

19 minutes ago, stitches said:

Now if you ask if I would trade one of them for Godwin... that might be worth a discussion. 

Back to this. I would like to see this in a thread with a poll.

 

 

Can't imagine too many people would take this stand. Would be intriguing to see though, no doubt.

 

 

Almost as bad as the argument that Godwin is "possibly" more valuable than both of them combined. I don't think there is a WR in the league I would trade for either of them, let alone Godwin.

 

22 minutes ago, stitches said:

They don't tell you the story of how good/valuable the player has been in PFF's system.

I've never really taken PFF rankings as the final say or anything, I enjoy looking at their ranking, but if this is their conclusion(Godwin is more valuable), then I will probably just not pay much attention to them anymore.

[stitches]

48 minutes ago, w87r said:

Of course they are not your graphs, but this is your thread and you posted the graphs, hence why I said your graphs.

 

Back to this. I would like to see this in a thread with a poll.

 

Can't imagine too many people would take this stand. Would be intriguing to see though, no doubt.

I know what the poll would say. That won't be shocking at all to me. Wouldn't make it right thought. 

 

Quote

Almost as bad as the argument that Godwin is "possibly" more valuable than both of them combined. I don't think there is a WR in the league I would trade for either of them, let alone Godwin.

I mean... OK, I guess... 

Quote

I've never really taken PFF rankings as the final say or anything, I enjoy looking at their ranking, but if this is their conclusion(Godwin is more valuable), then I will probably just not pay much attention to them anymore.

Why is that? Is it because it goes against your team/favorite players or because you have a good argument against it? OK let me put it like this. 

 

Forget about Q or DL. Lets divorce this from the Colts. What do you think are the most valuable positions in football? You can have players of the exact same quality at their own position, rank them by which ones you would take in a draft. 

 

I don't get why it's so hard to admit that WR is more valuable position than LB or G. This should be pretty non-controversial IMO. It doesn't mean the best guards or LBs in the league are garbage. They are awesome and DL and Q are awesome. The question is - how valuable are they? Compared to similarly ranked players of different positions? Or even slightly worse players at different more valuable positions? 

 

Lets say Q is the best guard in the league. Would you take him over Aaron Donald(the best DT in the league)? Would you take him over Mahomes(best QB in the league)? Would you take him over Khalil Mack(Nick Bosa, TJ Watt... whoever you consider best EDGE)? Would you take him over Devante Adams(or whoever you consider best WR in the leauge)? Ronnie Stanley(or whoever you think is best LT in the league)? etc...

 

For the record: I would take every single one of them over Q. And I love Q and I think he's amazing and the best thing that has happened to this franchise in the last 5 years... maybe more... maybe since drafting Luck... 

[w87r]

34 minutes ago, stitches said:

What do you think are the most valuable positions in football?

QB, LT, DE, DT, CB

 

Really depends on system after QB, LT, DE

 

WR is really low on the list. Ballard clearly seems to think this as well, as he seems to "value" the trenches way more than skill positions.

 

To me, value is placed on how easy it is to replace you. There are so many above average to good WRs(where I would put Godwin), there are so few All Pro Guards and LBs. In other words, Godwin is easier to replace, Nelson and Leonard, not so much. So in my opinion that makes them more valuable.

 

 

After those first 5 positions(3) listed above, I don't think there is much difference in positional breakdown, have to look at individual players impact on the game after that, despite position.

 

34 minutes ago, stitches said:

I don't get why it's so hard to admit that WR is more valuable position than LB or G. This should be pretty non-controversial IMO.

 

 

Ask the Ravens how important Ray Lewis was for them. I imagine they would say he was more valuable than anyone else on that team. Far more than Qadry Ismail.

 

The Colts had a ragtag squad of WRs, still went 11-5. It wasn't because our receivers were so valuable.

 

34 minutes ago, stitches said:

Forget about Q or DL. Lets divorce this from the Colts.

Why you're the one that brought them in the discussion, by saying Godwin is "probably" more valuable than both combined and that you would entertain the discussion on trading one of them for Godwin. 

 

 

 

EDIT: And it's a shame that, what I thought was a good thread, turned to something else after the bad take on Godwin vs Q/DL.

[2006Coltsbestever]

30 minutes ago, stitches said:

I know what the poll would say. That won't be shocking at all to me. Wouldn't make it right thought. 

 

I mean... OK, I guess... 

Why is that? Is it because it goes against your team/favorite players or because you have a good argument against it? OK let me put it like this. 

 

Forget about Q or DL. Lets divorce this from the Colts. What do you think are the most valuable positions in football? You can have players of the exact same quality at their own position, rank them by which ones you would take in a draft. 

 

I don't get why it's so hard to admit that WR is more valuable position than LB or G. This should be pretty non-controversial IMO. It doesn't mean the best guards or LBs in the league are garbage. They are awesome and DL and Q are awesome. The question is - how valuable are they? Compared to similarly ranked players of different positions? Or even slightly worse players at different more valuable positions? 

 

Lets say Q is the best guard in the league. Would you take him over Aaron Donald(the best DT in the league)? Would you take him over Mahomes(best QB in the league)? Would you take him over Khalil Mack(Nick Bosa, TJ Watt... whoever you consider best EDGE)? Would you take him over Devante Adams(or whoever you consider best WR in the leauge)? Ronnie Stanley(or whoever you think is best LT in the league)? etc...

 

For the record: I would take every single one of them over Q. And I love Q and I think he's amazing and the best thing that has happened to this franchise in the last 5 years... maybe more... maybe since drafting Luck... 

The problem with this post is, you named the best players at their positions to prove your point. Of course I would trade Q for Mahomes lol or maybe the best WR in the league. You posted earlier it could be a discussion to trade Q or Leonard for Godwin. No way nobody would do that. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

9 minutes ago, w87r said:

QB, LT, DE, DT, CB

 

Really depends on system after QB, LT, DE

 

WR is really low on the list. Ballard clearly seems to think this as well, as he seems to "value" the trenches way more than skill positions.

 

To me, value is placed on how easy it is to replace you. There are so many above average to good WRs(where I would put Godwin), there are so few All Pro Guards and LBs. In other words, Godwin is easier to replace, Nelson and Leonard, not so much. So in my opinion that makes them more valuable.

 

 

After those first 5 positions(3) listed above, I don't think there is much difference in positional breakdown, have to look at individual players impact on the game after that, despite position.

 

 

 

Ask the Ravens how important Ray Lewis was for them. I imagine they would say he was more valuable than anyone else on that team. Far more than Qadry Ismail.

 

The Colts had a ragtag squad of WRs, still went 11-5. It wasn't because our receivers were so valuable.

 

Why you're the one that brought them in the discussion, by saying Godwin is "probably" more valuable than both combined and that you would entertain the discussion on trading one of them for Godwin. 

 

 

 

EDIT: And it's a shame that, what I thought was a good thread, turned to something else after the bad take on Godwin vs Q/DL.

I would say QB. DE, and LT but between DE and LT it is a toss up. So we pretty much agree. Every once in a while you have a player like Q that comes along though and is just as valuable to your team than any player. Like you said about Ray Lewis, would anyone trade Ray Lewis for today's best WR, I wouldn't.

[stitches]

10 minutes ago, w87r said:

QB, LT, DE, DT, CB

 

Really depends on system after QB, LT, DE

 

WR is really low on the list. Ballard clearly seems to think this as well, as he seems to "value" the trenches way more than skill positions.

 

To me, value is placed on how easy it is to replace you. There are so many above average to good WRs(where I would put Godwin), there are so few All Pro Guards and LBs. In other words, Godwin is easier to replace, Nelson and Leonard, not so much. So in my opinion that makes them more valuable.

 

 

After those first 5 positions(3) listed above, I don't think there is much difference in positional breakdown, have to look at individual players impact on the game after that, despite position.

 

 

 

Ask the Ravens how important Ray Lewis was for them. I imagine they would say he was more valuable than anyone else on that team. Far more than Qadry Ismail.

 

The Colts had a ragtag squad of WRs, still went 11-5. It wasn't because our receivers were so valuable.

 

Let's just say I disagree, and I would put WR firmly somewhere among those other positions you listed after QB. Very possibly at no. 2 too.

10 minutes ago, w87r said:

Why you're the one that brought them in the discussion, by saying Godwin is "probably" more valuable than both combined and that you would entertain the discussion on trading one of them for Godwin. 

Yes, in PFF's system and it was me expanding on a response to someone wondering why Tampa bay is ranked this high and above us. This was part of my answer.

10 minutes ago, w87r said:

 

EDIT: And it's a shame that, what I thought was a good thread, turned to something else after the bad take on Godwin vs Q/DL.

It's not a "bad take". It was a guess about how PFFs WAR values them in order to rank Tampa bay over the Colts..

 

[w87r]

4 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

The problem with this post is, you named the best players at their positions to prove your point. Of course I would trade Q for Mahomes lol or maybe the best WR in the league. You posted earlier it could be a discussion to trade Q or Leonard for Godwin. No way anyone would do that. 

fixed it for you. No way nobody would do that, means somebody would. 

 

 

Anyway, like I listed above, I wouldn't trade Q for any WR in the league. 

 

Mahomes - clearly

Donald - no because we have Buckner, if not, yes

Mack or LT? That would be worth a discussion at least.

 

2 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I would say QB. DE, and LT but between DE and LT it is a toss up. So we pretty much agree. Every once in a while you have a player like Q that comes along though and is just as valuable to your team than any player. Like you said about Ray Lewis, would anyone trade Ray Lewis for today's best WR, I wouldn't.

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 minutes ago, w87r said:

fixed it for you. No way nobody would do that, means somebody would. 

 

 

Anyway, like I listed above, I wouldn't trade Q for any WR in the league. 

 

Mahomes - clearly

Donald - no because we have Buckner, if not, yes

Mack or LT? That would be worth a discussion at least.

 

Yeah I meant anyone  but we agree. Also I agree because we have Buck, I would not trade Nelson for Donald.