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BProland's Updated Colts Mock (Post Wentz trade)


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Here is my latest Colts Mock Draft, with a few key Free Agent signings, since the Carson Wentz trade.

 

Free Agency

Indy resigns CB Xavier Rhodes - 2 years, 18 million (9/year)

Indy resigns WR TY Hilton - 2 years, 18 million (9/year)

Indy signs DE Carl Lawson - 4 years, 40 million (10/year)

Indy signs TE Jonnu Smith - 4 years, 34 million (8.5/year)

Indy signs WR Curtis Samuel - 3 years, 18 million (6/year)

 

Draft

Ballard trades 21st overall pick to Jax, for their 25h overall pick, and their 3rd round pick

 

Round 1 Pick 25 (JAX): Azeez Ojulari, DE/OLB, Georgia 
Round 2 Pick 22: Tyson Campell, CB, Georgia
Round 3 Pick 1 (JAX): Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame 
Round 4 Pick 22: Alim McNeill, DT, North Carolina State
Round 5 Pick 21: Amari Rodgers, WR, Clemson
Round 6 Pick 22: Landon Young, OT, Kentucky
Round 7 Pick 21: Robert Hainsey, OT/OG, Notre Dame

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I like the draft

 

But would the OT in round 1 or 2

 

Too important to miss on

 

You have $42.5 in FA signings ... Our cap is currently 43.6M

 

We will need at least 7-8M to sign our rookies and some room for mid season adds if there are injuries

 

I really think you may see some folks on the roster get extended

 

 

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I feel confident that Samuel gets more than 6 mil a year. 
 

No way in the world we get Jax 3rd rounder for them moving 4 spots. 
 

We draft a glaring need at LT before the 3rd round if not addressed in FA. Ballard literally preaches the trenches as a key importance. LT is rather important. Plus I doubt Eichenburg is there in the 3rd IMO. 
 

As previously said your FA signings put us out of money. That’s the opposite of a Ballard move. 

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15 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

A lot of rankings have him around the 75th best player, which would be 3rd round area. 

Who has that ranking?

 

For what it’s worth...   PFF, Kiper, McShay all have him in the 50’s. 
 

Jeremiah has him at 47.

 

The outlier is CBS which has yet to update their original ranking of 104.   But they will.

 

Im guessing you’re referring to the mock  draft simulators.   As I’ve often stated, none of them are very credible until April when much mire info is known.   Otherwise they’re mostly throwing darts and hoping...  

 

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3 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

I like the draft

 

But would the OT in round 1 or 2

 

Too important to miss on

 

You have $42.5 in FA signings ... Our cap is currently 43.6M

 

We will need at least 7-8M to sign our rookies and some room for mid season adds if there are injuries

 

I really think you may see some folks on the roster get extended

 

 

The trouble with these kind of mock drafts is you don't know who was taken before the pick and who was available.  So not sure how you can say you would have rather had a 1-2 rd OT or for that matter how BP came to the conclusion that Ojulari was even the best player on the board when the Colts picked.

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29 minutes ago, BluesGirl said:

The trouble with these kind of mock drafts is you don't know who was taken before the pick and who was available.  So not sure how you can say you would have rather had a 1-2 rd OT or for that matter how BP came to the conclusion that Ojulari was even the best player on the board when the Colts picked.

I take my hat off to the brave souls that do mock drafts on this board......

 

I REALLY think that we NEED an OT with the first or 2nd pick......  We have nada today for an important expensive position

 

We need the rookie wages

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Who has that ranking?

 

For what it’s worth...   PFF, Kiper, McShay all have him in the 50’s. 
 

Jeremiah has him at 47.

 

The outlier is CBS which has yet to update their original ranking of 104.   But they will.

 

Im guessing you’re referring to the mock  draft simulators.   As I’ve often stated, none of them are very credible until April when much mire info is known.   Otherwise they’re mostly throwing darts and hoping...  

 

Check Draftekk.

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11 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

Check Draftekk.

The only thing I use draftek for is to see the points value chart and see who is picking when in each round.   That is more technical and is not related to scouting. 
 

Im not aware they have any scouting expertise.   The people/websites I use and recommend all have a background in scouting.   They know football.    A few months ago these people had Eichenberg ranked around 105.   I predicted then it would not last long, and within a month or so that has happened.   
 

There are lots of websites that will do a Big Board.   They are not all created equal.   

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1 hour ago, MikeCurtis said:

I take my hat off to the brave souls that do mock drafts on this board......

 

I REALLY think that we NEED an OT with the first or 2nd pick......  We have nada today for an important expensive position

 

We need the rookie wages

 

 

 

I agree we need an OT.  But I will say that anyone that thinks CB is going to draft for need over BPA will be very disappointed in the draft.  I think/hope he will sign a vet OT 

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59 minutes ago, BluesGirl said:

I agree we need an OT.  But I will say that anyone that thinks CB is going to draft for need over BPA will be very disappointed in the draft.  I think/hope he will sign a vet OT 


Ok...   that’s an interesting position and certainly not unreasonable.   I can think of many high quality posters here who would agree with you.   
 

But how do we measure this?

 

Which position(s) could Ballard pick that would make someone say he clearly picked BPA over need?    Let’s say the first three rounds, and yes, I know we currently don’t have a 3rd round pick, but we might. 
 

Personally...   I don’t see us taking a QB in the first 3 rounds.   I don’t see us taking a running back with the first 3 rounds.   I don’t see us taking a DT with the first 3 rounds.  Nor do I see us taking a safety in the first 3 rounds. 
 

Otherwise...  OL, WR, and TE are all possible for me on off.   And DE and CB are possible on def.    I’m iffy on LB, could go either way.

 

Blue’s Girl, what do you say?

 

What does everyone else think?
 

 

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7 hours ago, BluesGirl said:

I agree we need an OT.  But I will say that anyone that thinks CB is going to draft for need over BPA will be very disappointed in the draft.  I think/hope he will sign a vet OT 

I think PURE BPA is a bit unrealistic

 

If BPA is a LG, RB, or C at 21, would we take them?

 

I dont believe so....

 

IMHO it becomes BPA ..........BUT........at a position of need.

 

If you have 5 needs, you pick the BPA of those needs

 

For example, in this draft,

If you have a need for LT, DE, CB, TE, and Pitts (TE) somehow slips to 21

 

To me.... you take Pitts because he is the BPA at a position of need, at 21 

(If thats the way CB "sees" the board)

 

I hope we come out of this draft with a starting LT, DE, CB, AND TE...... :)

 

OF COURSE that is a tall order.......That hope will probably NOT be realized..... so draft what we can,

and get FA to complete. The reality is, if we could get 2-3 actual starters, from this draft we would all be happy 

 

I see some seemingly good LT that should be around for us to draft, even up to pick 40 or so.

(my gut says we will try to find a trade partner to give us a very late 1st or very early 2nd for our 21st pick, as well as give us a late 3rd or early 4th)

 

I believe that there are some TEs or CBs that could start and contribute right away in the 2nd round

 

I think we may go developmental DE in later rounds. Which IMHO means that we need to get at least one DE FA to complete

 

It is always interesting this time of year ........

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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@NewColtsFan and @MikeCurtis    I say this because Ballard says this.     He says they set their board and draft from it. 

 

Their BPA will most often differ from probably everyone else's BPA. He sets his board with his eye on Special Payers and also  BPA at core positions  And of course they also have a variable in the equation for need.  So if 2 player are rated very close they would take the need player.  But otherwise its BPA on the Colts board.

 

For instance.  Many people didn't think we should have drafted Q.   While Oline was a need there were a lot of people that thought it was a reach but he was the BPA 

 

Braydon Smith?  

 

Leonard?    Not many saw this one coming.  I didn't even know who he was.  

 

Last yr.   How many saw the Colts using their two 2nd round picks on WR and RB?   

 

My guess is that even if they have a Safety ranked a lot higher than a OT they will take the safety.

 

 

So when I say something about these Mock drafts.  I do appreciate that people do them.  I read them all when I can. 

 

Without knowing who was taken with the 1st 20 picks its hard to say who the Colts would/should take without seeing who is available. 

 

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2017/4/5/15192468/chris-ballard-discusses-his-approach-to-the-nfl-draft-colts

 

Ballard's quote:

 

Quote

“We’ll never pass up a special player,” Ballard said. “We just, we won’t do that. And so to me, when you draft for need is when you get in problems. So every round, we’ll make sure we’re taking the best player in the round. Now there’s always core positions that you’re going to look for, pass rushers, tackles, corners, those are always going to be front-line positions and they’re going to go fast. I mean, those guys, they come off the board fast in the draft. But we’ll always be looking for those core positions and we’ll always, always be looking for the best player.”

 

Stampede Blue analysis 

Quote

 

There are two main things to point out from what Ballard said. First, he’s a BPA guy. He subscribes to the strategy of taking the best player available at his pick regardless of whether it fits the team’s need or not, because that’s how you often wind up with the best talent and players. This is the best strategy to have, but it depends largely on talent evaluation. A recent Colts example is this: if Phillip Dorsett is the best available player on your board at number 29 in 2015, the problem isn’t with the BPA approach but rather with the way the board was put together. So the BPA approach is a smart one, but you have to make sure that your board is aligned in the right way.

Second, Ballard emphasises a few “core positions” - which he highlighted as pass rushers, tackles, and corners, though there may be others too. But these are the positions that it seems Ballard will pay special attention to, and this could help break any close calls regarding the BPA approach. If two players on the board are closely rated and one is a core position while the other isn’t, then the core position would likely take priority. That’s because these are very important positions to have and, as a result, often hard to come by - thus the reason they go fast in the draft. So keep an eye on pass rushers, tackles, and corners for the Colts - two of which could be considered the team’s two biggest needs.

 

 

 

 

More analysis from Stampede Blue

Quote

So in short, Colts fans should expect Chris Ballard to employ a BPA approach to drafting with the Colts while keeping a focus on the core positions he mentioned. That’s not a bad strategy, as long as the evaluation leading up to the draft is good.

 

I won't be surprised with any pick that Ballard takes.  Even QB, if a top rated one on Ballards board falls to 21 

 

He's pretty transparent in what he does IMO.

 

 

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34 minutes ago, BluesGirl said:

 

 

I won't be surprised with any pick that Ballard takes.  Even QB, if a top rated one on Ballards board falls to 21 

 

He's pretty transparent in what he does IMO.

 

 

I dont disagree with the fact that Ballard has his own BPA list (That is usually different than what the fans list is)

 

We also know that he tends to favor building the lines

 

I WOULD be surprised if QB was the option at this point. First as I dont see anything "special" making it to pick 21

 

My ONLY point is that its NOT a pure BPA, 

 

Team Needs are taken into account in addition to BPA

 

They go together.....

 

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Here is my most updated version...

 

Ballard trades 21st overall pick to NO for their 28th overall, and late 2nd round pick. (They make a move up for Mac Jones or Trask in this scenario.) 

 

Round 1 Pick 28 (N.O.): Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

- I would love to get Horn as our future #1 corner on this team. He has some Gilmore to his game and is a big physical corner which Ballard will love. Corner is such a big need longterm as Rhodes is up in age and Rock is no sure thing to stick with the team for the long haul. 


Round 2 Pick 22: Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan

- Mayfield has the athleticism to play both RT and LT. He hopefully would be capable of challenging to start immediately at LT, and having Big Q next to him will help him out along the way.


Round 2 Pick 28 (N.O.): Joseph Ossai, DE/OLB, Texas

- A very good overall DE here, in the mold of a Justin Houston. He is great at setting the edge, along with getting pressure as well. He may never be a dominant pass rusher, but playing alongside Buckner will help him get his double digit sacks.


Round 4 Pick 22: Alim McNeill, DT, North Carolina State

- Yes we already have Grover Stewart at NT, but having another great player to rotate in with both Buckner and him would be beneficial. And forget about teams running on them in goal line situations with Stewart, McNeill, and Buckner all on the field. 

 

Round 5 Pick 21: Amari Rodgers, WR, Clemson

- Ballard always seems to draft at least one Senior Bowl player, and I have a feeling Rodgers could be one of those guys. He is sneaky in finding ways to get open and find holes in the defense. He would make for a good slot WR if Campbell can't stay healthy.

 
Round 6 Pick 21: Marlon Williams, WR, Central Florida 

- This guy reminds me of a poor man's AJ Brown. He has the size and after the catch ability to be a threat in the passing game.


Round 7 Pick 21: Robert Hainsey, OT/OG, Notre Dame

- Simply a depth pick here who can play both G and RT if desperate.

 

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