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w87r Colts Offseason and Mock(Post Wentz deal, with Extensions)


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Concerned about DE. Getting rid of Houston, Autry and Muhammad  and resplacing with Hendrickson and a 5th round rookie scares me. Rather keep Muhammad and get rid on Walker. Also would rather have someone like Samuel rather than Aglohor. Really love the draft however. Would be a homerun!!

 

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10 minutes ago, hoosierhawk said:

Concerned about DE. Getting rid of Houston, Autry and Muhammad  and resplacing with Hendrickson and a 5th round rookie scares me. Rather keep Muhammad and get rid on Walker. Also would rather have someone like Samuel rather than Aglohor. Really love the draft however. Would be a homerun!!

 

Yeah, I hear you.

 

In retrospect, I shouldn't of went back and made that change.

 

 

I had Autry($6m) re-signed but changed it to Walker($4m) after I signed Hendrickson.

 

I will say at some point though, these young guys are gonna have to sink or swim.

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5 hours ago, w87r said:

Colts Cap Space:$43.6m(OtC)

(65 current active players)

Restructure Ryan Kelly - $6.75m savings

 

New Cap Space: $50.35m

 

Re-signings:

Dulin $850k ERFA

Stallworth $850k ERFA

Smith $850k ERFA

Walker $4m

Rhodes $9m

Carrie $1m

Hunt $1m

Odum $2.2m RFA original round tender(RoFR)

Pascal $2.2m RFA original round tender(RoFR)

Alie-Cox $2.2m RFA original round tender(RoFR)

 

10 players added(so 10x$780k(average est) =$7.8m)

 

Signings $24m - $7.8m(players that fall off top 51 salary cap) = $16.2m top 51 cap hit

 

New top 51 cap space: $34.15m

(75 players on roster)

 

Extensions:

Darius Leonard:(4 years $68.3m $41.3m guaranteed(2021 base + 2021 RB, 2022/2023 numbers))

2021:$3.42m base, $838k SB, $5m RB = $9.3m ~ guaranteed

2022:$5m base, $10m RB = $15m ~ guaranteed

2023: $10m base, $7m RB = $17m ~ guaranteed

2024: $12m base, $4m RB = $16m

2025: $11m base = $11m

 

Braden Smith:(4yrs $58.3m $33.3m guaranteed(2021 base + 2021 RB, 2022/2023 numbers))

2021: $2.43m base, $828k SB, $5m RB = $8.3m ~ guaranteed

2022: $8m base, $5m RB = $13m ~ guaranteed

2023: $7m base, $5m RB = $12m ~ guaranteed

2024: $6m base, $5m RB = $11m 

2025: $14m base = $14m

 

New Cap Space:$24.15m

 

Trades:

Jack Doyle to WFT for pick #114 - $4.35m savings(+$780k added to top 51) net top 51 savings $3.5m

 

New Cap Space:$27.65m

(74 players on roster)

 

Free Agents:

Nelson Agholor - $8m

Trey Hendrickson - $10m

 

2 players added $18m - 2 players drop off top 51 for $1.6 net cap hit $16.4m

 

New Cap Space:$11.25m

(76 players on roster)

 

NFL Draft:

#21 -($1.8m)-Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

#54 -($972k)-Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern

#114 -($775k)-Trey McKitty, TE, Georgia

#117 -($773k)-Quinn Meinerz, G, Wisconsin-Whitewater

#148 -($709k)-Elerson Smith, DE, Northern Iowa

#180 -($687k)-Austin Watkins, WR, UAB

#211 -($673k)-Leon O'Neal Jr., S, Texas A&M

 

2 draft picks come off of top 51 cap space for $2.8m - 2 players dropping off top 51 for $1.6m. Net top 51 cap hit is $1.2m. All other picks are off top 51 for now.

 

End Cap Space:$10m

(83 players on roster)

 

@NewColtsFan told you I would make a new one.

Es Muy Bueno

 

I hope the run on QBs, keeps Darrisaw on the board at 21. From the writeups I am seeing, he can play day one.

 

Greg Newsome seems like a perfect fit for this defense

 

I think we may be short a DE in your forecast as we are a bit light with 2 starting DEs leaving.

Turay as a starter makes me a bit nervous

 

I believe someone mentioned that we could recategorize the Buckner bonus and pick up an additional $10M (Ish)

 

Thanks for sharing, fun to read when not much is going on 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

Es Muy Bueno

 

I hope the run on QBs, keeps Darrisaw on the board at 21. From the writeups I am seeing, he can play day one.

 

Greg Newsome seems like a perfect fit for this defense

 

I think we may be short a DE in your forecast as we are a bit light with 2 starting DEs leaving.

Turay as a starter makes me a bit nervous

 

I believe someone mentioned that we could recategorize the Buckner bonus and pick up an additional $10M (Ish)

 

Thanks for sharing, fun to read when not much is going on 

 

 

Yeah in this instance, we would need our young DEs to take a step forward. As I posted a couple time I swapped out Autry and replaced him woth Walker at the end. Which I'm regretting a little.

 

As far as Buckner, there is no chance that is happening in my opinion. He is already underpaid based on his value and we want him to play for $7m this season? No dice.

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1 hour ago, w87r said:

Thanks,

 

Common theme of most my draft picks was Senior bowl appearance/performance.

 

Ballard seems to love him some senior bowl guys.

Speaking of Senior Bowl guys, what do you think about Nasirildeen, the S out of FSU? I know there is some injury history there, but that dude seems like a freak athlete for his size. Seems like he could be a potential TE neutralizer at LB/S/CB.

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21 minutes ago, Hark said:

Speaking of Senior Bowl guys, what do you think about Nasirildeen, the S out of FSU? I know there is some injury history there, but that dude seems like a freak athlete for his size. Seems like he could be a potential TE neutralizer at LB/S/CB.

Happy for the guy. He definitely has a place in thr league. Look forward to seeing where he ends up. Lots of potential

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57 minutes ago, w87r said:

Yeah in this instance, we would need our young DEs to take a step forward. As I posted a couple time I swapped out Autry and replaced him woth Walker at the end. Which I'm regretting a little.

 

As far as Buckner, there is no chance that is happening in my opinion. He is already underpaid based on his value and we want him to play for $7m this season? No dice.

According to one writer, Buckner would get exact same $$, he wouldnt lose a penny

 

It would just be converted....... let me find it again

 

Update

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/why-the-colts-should-restructure-deforest-buckner-e2-80-99s-contract/ar-BB1dD2Aj

 

 

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22 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

According to one writer, Buckner would get exact same $$, he wouldnt lose a penny

 

It would just be converted....... let me find it again

 

Update

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/why-the-colts-should-restructure-deforest-buckner-e2-80-99s-contract/ar-BB1dD2Aj

 

 

Yeah, he isn't going to lose a penny but this isn't just cut and dry. There is serious ramifications.

 

You add $4m a year to the next 3 years, when you are already going to have new big contracts on Leonard, Smith and Nelson.

 

It is a huge gamble of putting us in cap hell.

 

Then coupled with the thoughts in that article of all the pieces they could acquire. Sounds good till you actually look at the future ramifications of what that would mean. Ugly scene and players getting released because we are in bad cap shape.

 

If we were one of these teams up against the cap or over the cap, sure. As is, Buckner's contract is perfect right now and no need to increase it in future years where it is manageable now(Buckner's contract), and add it to our extensions and the Super team this article has us trying to sign.

 

Robinson + $15m+ future seasons

Henry + $10m+ future seasons

Lawson + $10m+ future seasons

Jackson + $7m + future seasons

Johnson + who knows on him

 

+42m future seasons w/o Johnson

 

+20-$24m Buckner

+ $15-$18m Leonard

+$15m Nelson

+$12m Smith

 

$69m future years

 

Wentz $25m future years

 

$136m on 10 players.

 

Not a recipe for success. That's how you end up in NO type situation in a couple years.

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Really well thought out. I also do agree with your points about giving Buckner a bone. Although that's one reason I would have concerns about spending FA money on a DE, but that is a relatively frugal decision to get Hendrickson at that price. 

 

I like your draft for the most part. But I'm on the opposite side of the fence when it comes to addressing LT and DE. With the already solid Oline you have, I'd be more apt to take a risk on a 2nd tier FA at LT like Cam Robinson at around the same price point. Bad teams have a way of making good players look worse than they really are. Fournette anyone? That and for my thinking it takes any LT some time to develop polish. This guy has an All-Pro ceiling. I'd rather get a guy like Paye with the 21st overall to plug into that 4-3. Veteran pass rushers are always high risk propositions, but at least you're not going after a 3-4 edge guy. And yeah Houston was good last year but... it's probably not worth the money. 

I am also not sold on Agholor. He drops too many balls. That can be corrected sometimes however. But, I'm of the same thinking in terms of spending at the position for a burner on the boundary. I wouldn't go after a guy like ARob. Marvin Jones might be a sneaky good pick up at around the same price, even though he's 31. He was Detroit's only real option last year and showed he can still stretch the field. Might not be a bad idea to pick up a veteran there for that young skill group.

 

That and... Rhodes. I'm sketchy on him although he is familiar with Eberflus' defense. Might not be a terrible idea but again the CB market this year has quite a bit on the bone and you're going to see a squeeze there in terms of market value. I would hate to see this team get bent over a barrel by Rhodes if he regresses back to his 18-19 form. But, if you can get value at the other slots it might not be a bad signing. 

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6 minutes ago, JoeThornburg said:

Really well thought out. I also do agree with your points about giving Buckner a bone. Although that's one reason I would have concerns about spending FA money on a DE, but that is a relatively frugal decision to get Hendrickson at that price. 

 

I like your draft for the most part. But I'm on the opposite side of the fence when it comes to addressing LT and DE. With the already solid Oline you have, I'd be more apt to take a risk on a 2nd tier FA at LT like Cam Robinson at around the same price point. Bad teams have a way of making good players look worse than they really are. Fournette anyone? That and for my thinking it takes any LT some time to develop polish. This guy has an All-Pro ceiling. I'd rather get a guy like Paye with the 21st overall to plug into that 4-3. Veteran pass rushers are always high risk propositions, but at least you're not going after a 3-4 edge guy. And yeah Houston was good last year but... it's probably not worth the money. 

I am also not sold on Agholor. He drops too many balls. That can be corrected sometimes however. But, I'm of the same thinking in terms of spending at the position for a burner on the boundary. I wouldn't go after a guy like ARob. Marvin Jones might be a sneaky good pick up at around the same price, even though he's 31. He was Detroit's only real option last year and showed he can still stretch the field. Might not be a bad idea to pick up a veteran there for that young skill group.

 

That and... Rhodes. I'm sketchy on him although he is familiar with Eberflus' defense. Might not be a terrible idea but again the CB market this year has quite a bit on the bone and you're going to see a squeeze there in terms of market value. I would hate to see this team get bent over a barrel by Rhodes if he regresses back to his 18-19 form. But, if you can get value at the other slots it might not be a bad signing. 

Appreciate the response.

 

 

Here is a little deeper dive into the LT and DE situation.

 

 

I feel a rookie 1st rounder would have a great shot at succeeding with Nelson next to him. The on the flip side, in this situation we already have a lot of young guys at DE, so adding another doesn't seem like the thing to do.

 

So I think pairing a rookie LT with Nelson amd a veteran DE with our young DEs makes sense.

 

I'm a little leary of Rhodes as well, but he did play pretty well last year. I almost traded our 2nd for Lattimore but pulled it back.

 

Agholor hasn't been to well received in this thread for sure. I've really been on that wagon more recently with the Wentz rumors. I think the connection is there and maybe any issues between Carson and him may be overblown?

 

I would be good with going after another option to, Corey Davis maybe, I like Jones as well.

 

I mocked us Cam Robinson a couple mocks ago, it wasn't that well received either. I do think he would be just fine there though.

 

I also think Hendrickson would be a great pickup, he has the size and length that Ballard likes a great motor.

 

Maybe the answer would be to go after both? Then draft a WR? 

 

 

Going to be a fun offseason, already has been for the last month with all the QB talk, now it's almost to official time. NFL offseason borders in season to me. I love it.

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26 minutes ago, w87r said:

Appreciate the response.

 

 

Here is a little deeper dive into the LT and DE situation.

 

 

I feel a rookie 1st rounder would have a great shot at succeeding with Nelson next to him. The on the flip side, in this situation we already have a lot of young guys at DE, so adding another doesn't seem like the thing to do.

 

So I think pairing a rookie LT with Nelson amd a veteran DE with our young DEs makes sense.

 

I'm a little leary of Rhodes as well, but he did play pretty well last year. I almost traded our 2nd for Lattimore but pulled it back.

 

Agholor hasn't been to well received in this thread for sure. I've really been on that wagon more recently with the Wentz rumors. I think the connection is there and maybe any issues between Carson and him may be overblown?

 

I would be good with going after another option to, Corey Davis maybe, I like Jones as well.

 

I mocked us Cam Robinson a couple mocks ago, it wasn't that well received either. I do think he would be just fine there though.

 

I also think Hendrickson would be a great pickup, he has the size and length that Ballard likes a great motor.

 

Maybe the answer would be to go after both? Then draft a WR? 

 

 

Going to be a fun offseason, already has been for the last month with all the QB talk, now it's almost to official time. NFL offseason borders in season to me. I love it.

You make great points all around. I get the Wentz-Agholor connection. It's really not a bad play if he can start looking the ball into his hands. That and those two only had that one year under Reich, but who knows. That could be the kind of reunion he needs to get just a little more disciplined. Kind of like.. hey you remember this? It proves to me you're thinking about the all around picture. The only reason I also suggested looking at Jones is because he's still hungry and could benefit in a similar way to a change of scenery from playing in two of the three worst dumpsters in the NFL. 

 

I also have to give you a nod for considering the veteran presence on both sides of the trench. Although I don't see Nelson being the guy to mentor and edge protector. He's brilliant at what he does. It's not that I would be against drafting talent at LT, but its also such a deep draft that you could even grab someone on Day 2 to go along with Paye. He's just got such brute force it could be a nightmare scenario along side Buckner. If you commit to Rhodes, then I could see taking a chance on a guy like Alaric Jackson in that slot too. He'd need to get better in the run game but he's a natural blindside protector. Might be able to get Robinson on a "prove it" type deal as well. 

The guy I would really want if you're talking about veteran DEs would be Yannick Ngakoue. I feel Baltimore is misusing him as an OLB and that's purely due to his weight. He proved in college that he's a beast as a 4-3 edge but.. that's college and that could turn out to be a double edged sword because you'd have to sign him away from teams that will want him in a 3-4. That would be the only guy I would think about converting.

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44 minutes ago, JoeThornburg said:

Although I don't see Nelson being the guy to mentor and edge protector.

Yeah, I wasn't really meaning Nelson as being a mentor, just the fact that he is an all pro and that should make a rookies job a little easier with that kind of talent next to him.

 

 

Ngakoue would be nice. Our DL would be dangerous, not sure we can afford him,  but I wouldn't be mad at all if we found a way to make it work.

 

 

And like I said I like Marvin Jones also, he would be a nice addition.

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