Ballard trading back

[Defjamz26]

Ballard is a wheeling’, dealin, son of a gun. You can best believe he will likely trade down. What I expect is a slight trade down in the 1st to pick up a 4th and some change, which he’ll then package to move into the 3rd. 

[danlhart87]

4 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Ballard is a wheeling’, dealin, son of a gun. You can best believe he will likely trade down. What I expect is a slight trade down in the 1st to pick up a 4th and some change, which he’ll then package to move into the 3rd. 

A trade down with Browns would net us a 4th 

[harrisoncolts88]

I think I've started telling myself that Ballard will do both types of trades we've seen from him (I mean isn't this what we love during draft season, being armchair GM). I can see Ballard trading a good ways back and going all the way to the top of the second round, getting a third a maybe a 4th/5th as well. Then taking that 4th/5th rounder obtained and moving up from pick 54 like he did with getting Taylor last year.

 

And with this 3 picks, take Liam Eichenberg (OT), Pat Freiermuth (TE), and Jordan Smith (DE)

[poilucelt]

9 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Ballard is a wheeling’, dealin, son of a gun. You can best believe he will likely trade down. What I expect is a slight trade down in the 1st to pick up a 4th and some change, which he’ll then package to move into the 3rd. 

theoretically he should be able to get better than a 4th--the example I listed earlier was a trade w/ Green Bay where CB sends them #21 in exchange for #29 and #93

[Nate!]

Seems like a Ballard move to do this.  If have no LT by draft time and a solid LT is there, would be hard to imagine a trade back but just never know.  Remember when Sweat dropped and they traded back when could’ve used someone like Sweat (still could!).

[Defjamz26]

9 hours ago, poilucelt said:

theoretically he should be able to get better than a 4th--the example I listed earlier was a trade w/ Green Bay where CB sends them #21 in exchange for #29 and #93

I would be fine with that, but Greenbay would likely be moving up for an OT that we could probably use ourselves. Question is would the risk be worth the reward in that scenario.

[poilucelt]

10 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

I would be fine with that, but Greenbay would likely be moving up for an OT that we could probably use ourselves. Question is would the risk be worth the reward in that scenario.

personally I think GB might be more interested in moving up for a WR

 

it's looking more and more like the 3 OTs who are considered sure-fire 1st rounders (Sewell, Slater and Darrisaw) may all be gone by #21. I've seen Jenkins mocked before #21 as well (and after #21). I've even seen one mock that has Radunz going at #20. Most of the other OTs I've seen mocked more often in Round Two than in Round One.

 

If one of the 3 sure-fire OTs falls to #21 I assume Ballard might keep the pick and draft that guy. If one or more of the Round One quality edge guys falls to #21 I could see Ballard picking him. If Jaycee Horn falls to #21 I could see Ballard picking him as well.

 

If none of the guys Ballard really likes (more than others he could get in Round Two) falls to #21, I could see him either trading down farther in Round One or trading down into Round Two.

 

And if I can put on my Captain Obvious uniform for a second, I think whatever free agents Ballard manages to sign will speak volumes about what he intends to do in the draft.

[stitches]

On 2/20/2021 at 10:55 PM, NewColtsFan said:

 

I think the odds are far better than 50/50 to trading down.

 

To gain a Day 2 pick, we will have to trade OUT of the 1st round.

 

These would be the probable options:

 

Colts 21 (800) trade with NY Jets  34 (560) and 66 (260)

 

Colts 21 (800) trade with ATL  35 (550) and 68 (250)

 

Colts 21 (800) trade with PHI  37 (530) and 69 (245)  and 164 (24.5)

 

Colts 21 (800) trade with CIN  38 (520) and 70 (240)  and  132 (40)

 

Colts 21 (800) trade with CAR 39 (510) and 73 (225) and 134 (39.5)

 

Colts 21 (800) trade with DEN 40 (500) and 71 (235) and 135 (38.5)

 

Some of these are not exact,  but they're close enough to likely get a deal.   But the key is the other team has to want to give up that much in order to do a deal.    It takes two....

Yeah, those are all nice options. I would do pretty much any of them. 

 

For whatever it's worth it... I was thinking... the third this year doesn't hurt a ton... but... 1st or 2nd next year would hurt. Is it possible we actually do a trade similar to the one with Washington where we got mid-second and future second. Maybe Ballard aims at next year draft compensation rather than this year. But I definitely could see him trading down from 21. 

 

This #21 is very intriguing to me simply because we know something about it before we even enter the draft - we know Ballard refused to include it in trade talks for two different QBs. This sounds to me like it should mean something. He has a specific plan for it, but I don't know what it is.

Is it trading back?

Is it selecting a specific player that's not likely to go much further down or does he like a group of players in that range that are not likely to fall down?

Is it potentially trading #21 for a another high end player(similar to last year trade for Buckner) - maybe he's had talks with a team for another star and they have some tentative agreement on a trade but are waiting for some things to play out before making the deal?

 

No idea... many guesses here, but #21 is definitely one to watch. Something is up with it IMO. 

[Defjamz26]

On 2/21/2021 at 6:43 PM, poilucelt said:

personally I think GB might be more interested in moving up for a WR

 

it's looking more and more like the 3 OTs who are considered sure-fire 1st rounders (Sewell, Slater and Darrisaw) may all be gone by #21. I've seen Jenkins mocked before #21 as well (and after #21). I've even seen one mock that has Radunz going at #20. Most of the other OTs I've seen mocked more often in Round Two than in Round One.

 

If one of the 3 sure-fire OTs falls to #21 I assume Ballard might keep the pick and draft that guy. If one or more of the Round One quality edge guys falls to #21 I could see Ballard picking him. If Jaycee Horn falls to #21 I could see Ballard picking him as well.

 

If none of the guys Ballard really likes (more than others he could get in Round Two) falls to #21, I could see him either trading down farther in Round One or trading down into Round Two.

 

And if I can put on my Captain Obvious uniform for a second, I think whatever free agents Ballard manages to sign will speak volumes about what he intends to do in the draft.

Working on my post Wentz Mock draft and how does this sound:

 
Colts send Jack Doyle and number 21 to Greenbay and get pick 29 and 92 back? Greenbay is in win now mode and Tunyan is their starting TE. They trade up and get either a WR like Bateman and Tony (jumping the Ravens and Bills) or can take an OT like Jenkins. Colts can take Cosmi or Eichenberg.

[DougDew]

14 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Working on my post Wentz Mock draft and how does this sound:

 
Colts send Jack Doyle and number 21 to Greenbay and get pick 29 and 92 back? Greenbay is in win now mode and Tunyan is their starting TE. They trade up and get either a WR like Bateman and Tony (jumping the Ravens and Bills) or can take an OT like Jenkins. Colts can take Cosmi or Eichenberg.

No team is giving up a draft pick for Doyle.  Not that you're saying it directly, but others have.

 

I like the trade up scenario by GB for Toney.  I think they need help at WR and Toney is the kind of player that could make an impact day 1 with his speed.

[Defjamz26]

3 minutes ago, DougDew said:

No team is giving up a draft pick for Doyle.  Not that you're saying it directly, but others have.

 

I like the trade up scenario by GB for Toney.  I think they need help at WR and Toney is the kind of player that could make an impact day 1 with his speed.

They’re really giving up their 3rd for #21. Doyle is really just a way to sweeten the deal and a salary dump by the Colts. 

[poilucelt]

6 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Working on my post Wentz Mock draft and how does this sound:

 
Colts send Jack Doyle and number 21 to Greenbay and get pick 29 and 92 back? Greenbay is in win now mode and Tunyan is their starting TE. They trade up and get either a WR like Bateman and Tony (jumping the Ravens and Bills) or can take an OT like Jenkins. Colts can take Cosmi or Eichenberg.

I mentioned earlier (as an example of moving down in Round One) #21 going to GB for #29 and #93--the Colts shouldn't need to include a player since moving up 8 picks in the 1st round is at least as valuable as pick #93.

[NewColtsFan]

6 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Working on my post Wentz Mock draft and how does this sound:

 
Colts send Jack Doyle and number 21 to Greenbay and get pick 29 and 92 back? Greenbay is in win now mode and Tunyan is their starting TE. They trade up and get either a WR like Bateman and Tony (jumping the Ravens and Bills) or can take an OT like Jenkins. Colts can take Cosmi or Eichenberg.

I don’t think Doyle moves the needle in any trade.   Not going into his age 31 season and with his history of injuries. 

 

I do like the idea of trading back and taking an OT like who you mentioned.  That is, unless we settle our OT situation in free agency which I think we might.   50/50?  

[Defjamz26]

1 hour ago, poilucelt said:

I mentioned earlier (as an example of moving down in Round One) #21 going to GB for #29 and #93--the Colts shouldn't need to include a player since moving up 8 picks in the 1st round is at least as valuable as pick #93.

Sounds good. How does it work out In regards to the trade value chart though?

 

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

I don’t think Doyle moves the needle in any trade.   Not going into his age 31 season and with his history of injuries. 

 

I do like the idea of trading back and taking an OT like who you mentioned.  That is, unless we settle our OT situation in free agency which I think we might.   50/50?  

I was thinking that you might be able to get Samuel Cosmi a little later and since Darrisaw (who I really like) might be gone before our pick, we could trade back and still be in good shape.

[NewColtsFan]

1 minute ago, Defjamz26 said:

Sounds good. How does it work out In regards to the trade value chart though?

 

I was thinking that you might be able to get Samuel Cosmi a little later and since Darrisaw (who I really like) might be gone before our pick, we could trade back and still be in good shape.

Yup...   my thought too.  
 

I think we pre-arrange a tentative trade.   If X is on the board, no trade, we draft the player.   But if X is taken we make the trade back and take the pick.   Find a player we like at the back of the first or top of the second. 

[poilucelt]

On 2/23/2021 at 6:19 PM, Defjamz26 said:

Sounds good. How does it work out In regards to the trade value chart though?

 

I was thinking that you might be able to get Samuel Cosmi a little later and since Darrisaw (who I really like) might be gone before our pick, we could trade back and still be in good shape.

the trade value (Rich Hill version) is #21 = 261 and #29 + #92 = 246

 

on the "old" (J. Johnson) chart, #21 = 800 and #29 + #92 = 772

 

I've seen Cosmi mocked late 1st to early 2nd, so he might still be there at #29 or even #34 (if Ballard were to trade down w/ the Jets like I posted earlier). I agree that Sewell, Slater and probably Darrisaw will go before #21 but I can't get a good feel for where T. Jenkins is likely to go. And the majority of mocks I've seen have Eichenberg lasting until the 2nd round FWIW.

[Hoose]

On 2/20/2021 at 3:45 PM, poilucelt said:

I still like the hypothetical trades I proposed a few days ago:

 

#21 to NYJ for #34 and #66 OR

 

#21 to ATL for #35 and #68

 

Ballard gets back a 3rd rounder and I feel confident a really promising OT prospect will still be there at either #34 or #35. Cynically speaking, I also like the prospect of picking in Round Two before Howie does. If the Jets didn't want to give up #66, I'd make a counter offer: #21 for their #34, #86 and #129.

I like a Jets trade as you noted above IF they hang with Darnold (which they might). They will need to get him some more weapons. I’d expect them to trade out of the second spot with someone like Atlanta, who could well be looking to find Ryan’s replacement. They could still get a stud LT at 4 like Sewell and use 21 for an impact WR. They would have received another high  Day 2 pick from Atlanta ( and more ) making their own 3rd round pick less critical. 

[poilucelt]

20 hours ago, Hoose said:

I like a Jets trade as you noted above IF they hang with Darnold (which they might). They will need to get him some more weapons. I’d expect them to trade out of the second spot with someone like Atlanta, who could well be looking to find Ryan’s replacement. They could still get a stud LT at 4 like Sewell and use 21 for an impact WR. They would have received another high  Day 2 pick from Atlanta ( and more ) making their own 3rd round pick less critical. 

when I think Ballard might trade down in a given draft, I look for teams with multiple later round picks. IIRC this year the Jets have 2 Round 3 picks as well as 2 in Round Five. The picks are now #66 & #87, and #130 & #138 (but I think New England also had to forfeit a 3rd round pick, so some of those numbers may be off by one spot).

 

That's why if I were Ballard and the Jets hypothetically  wanted #21 (maybe they wouldn't, given that they already have 2 first round picks) I'd ask for #34 and #66 in return, and if Douglass wouldn't agree to that, I'd ask for #34, #87 and #130.

 

IIRC Minnesota, Washington, Detroit and Cleveland also now have multiple 3rd round picks.

[danlhart87]

Would you guys consider a trade back to top of 2nd that would bring us a 22 2 as well 

[NewColtsFan]

3 hours ago, danlhart87 said:

Would you guys consider a trade back to top of 2nd that would bring us a 22 2 as well 

When we traded back a few years ago and hit a future 2 in the next draft...   we dropped 20 spots.    
 

We might not need to drop quite as much this year...   we’re picking 21 this year.   That year we were set to pick 26, and dropped 20 spots to 46. 
 

Finding a team to trade you two 2’s for your one is very hard to do.   Most teams won’t. 

[danlhart87]

2 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

When we traded back a few years ago and hit a future 2 in the next draft...   we dropped 20 spots.    
 

We might not need to drop quite as much this year...   we’re picking 21 this year.   That year we were set to pick 26, and dropped 20 spots to 46. 
 

Finding a team to trade you two 2’s for your one is very hard to do.   Most teams won’t. 

Chances are high Colts won't have a 22 1st so if Ballard pulls this off and snatches a top pick near the 2nd would be great 

[NewColtsFan]

2 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

Chances are high Colts won't have a 22 1st so if Ballard pulls this off and snatches a top pick near the 2nd would be great 

I’m with ya...   and I’m not saying it can’t or won’t happen.   Only that it’s very hard.  
 

I saw an article earlier this week about NFL people wondering which draft picks are valuable?   2021?   Or maybe 2022?    There was no consensus.   Just a lot of thinking out loud....

[poilucelt]

19 hours ago, danlhart87 said:

Would you guys consider a trade back to top of 2nd that would bring us a 22 2 as well 

I'd consider it if it were with a team that I thought would finish 2022 near the bottom of the league. In part it would depend on how comparatively deep I felt the 2021 and 2022 drafts were, especially in Rounds 3-5.

[AwesomeAustin]

Really depends what position they are targeting. If it’s a LT or DE maybe it’s best to get him in the first so there is the fifth year option.  Trading back does get us more picks but I think this roster needs a couple more impact players instead of average ceiling types. More likely to get that in the 1st. 

[poilucelt]

37 minutes ago, AwesomeAustin said:

Really depends what position they are targeting. If it’s a LT or DE maybe it’s best to get him in the first so there is the fifth year option.  Trading back does get us more picks but I think this roster needs a couple more impact players instead of average ceiling types. More likely to get that in the 1st. 

IIRC Leonard, Pittman and Taylor were all impactful 2nd rounders--I think Ballard strongly feels that, in most years, there are about 18-20 "true" first round guys and after that there's not much qualitative difference between a guy picked at, say, #28 or #30 versus a guy picked at, say, #35 or #40.

 

But given the Colts' positional needs, and what the first 20 picks are likely to be this time around, Ballard may well also feel pretty confident that an OT or DE or CB he really likes will fall to #21--in which case I don't think he trades down this year unless some other GM just blows him away with an offer too good to pass up.

[AwesomeAustin]

1 hour ago, poilucelt said:

IIRC Leonard, Pittman and Taylor were all impactful 2nd rounders--I think Ballard strongly feels that, in most years, there are about 18-20 "true" first round guys and after that there's not much qualitative difference between a guy picked at, say, #28 or #30 versus a guy picked at, say, #35 or #40.

 

But given the Colts' positional needs, and what the first 20 picks are likely to be this time around, Ballard may well also feel pretty confident that an OT or DE or CB he really likes will fall to #21--in which case I don't think he trades down this year unless some other GM just blows him away with an offer too good to pass up.

I’m hoping there is a run on QBs and WRs pushing lineman down to us.  

[poilucelt]

35 minutes ago, AwesomeAustin said:

I’m hoping there is a run on QBs and WRs pushing lineman down to us.  

if Mac Jones is REALLY moving up like some say, that's 5 Round One QBs. There are at least 4-5 sure-fire WRs (including Pitts, who IMO is more of an over-sized WR than a true TE), 3 probable Round One CBs, possibly as many as 5 DEs, 3-4 LBs and likely one DT.

 

And at least 3 OTs (4 if you include Jenkins) and 1-2 OGs. So it's certainly possible someone CB really likes will still be there at #21.

[MikeCurtis]

On 2/22/2021 at 7:05 AM, stitches said:

Y

 

This #21 is very intriguing to me simply because we know something about it before we even enter the draft - we know Ballard refused to include it in trade talks for two different QBs. This sounds to me like it should mean something. He has a specific plan for it, but I don't know what it is.

Is it trading back?

Is it selecting a specific player that's not likely to go much further down or does he like a group of players in that range that are not likely to fall down?

Is it potentially trading #21 for a another high end player(similar to last year trade for Buckner) - maybe he's had talks with a team for another star and they have some tentative agreement on a trade but are waiting for some things to play out before making the deal?

 

No idea... many guesses here, but #21 is definitely one to watch. Something is up with it IMO. 

IMHO, they have a player or 2 that they think may fall to 21

 

My hope is (and maybe the Colts) Darrisaw is there parked at 21,  if not then Paye DE from Michigan  

 

Both are day 1 starters and may just be BPA (or close) at 21

 

My belief is that both will be gone by 21.  I just dont see Ballard using that pick to trade up. 

(Maybe I will be wrong)

 

If the player in mind is gone, (whether its my pick or not) I see a trade happening

 

A trade to an early 2nd round (or later 1st) pick may still yield a starting OT

 

 

 

 

[stitches]

8 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

IMHO, they have a player or 2 that they think may fall to 21

 

My hope is (and maybe the Colts) Darrisaw is there parked at 21,  if not then Paye DE from Michigan  

 

Both are day 1 starters and may just be BPA (or close) at 21

 

My belief is that both will be gone by 21.  I just dont see Ballard using that pick to trade up. 

(Maybe I will be wrong)

 

If the player in mind is gone, (whether its my pick or not) I see a trade happening

 

A trade to an early 2nd round (or later 1st) pick may still yield a starting OT

 

The more I watch players in this draft the more I like the players in that range. Darrisaw, Paye, Rousseau, Bateman. Jaycee Horn is my new favorite and I would absolutely take him at 21 if he's there. I think he will be a steal there. 

 

I'm always up for a trade down too... I think we are in a good position overall. 

[MikeCurtis]

3 minutes ago, stitches said:

The more I watch players in this draft the more I like the players in that range. Darrisaw, Paye, Rousseau, Bateman. Jaycee Horn is my new favorite and I would absolutely take him at 21 if he's there. I think he will be a steal there. 

My first thought is LT or DE, but would say that at least so far the early draft of Rock at CB hasnt gone well

 

We still dont have an answer long term at CB, (Maybe Tell steps up into the role)

 

I do believe that our CBs will look better if we have a little better rush on the edges......

 

With at least one glaring hole on the OL and one glaring hole on the DL, it will be interesting to see how CB addresses this draft

 

Does he stay with his mantra of "lines first" or does he get more of a pure BPA, which could include WRs, TEs, S, and CBs that 

would surprise many (or some) fans  

 

 

 

[danlhart87]

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/lists/2021-nfl-draft-colts-mock-edge-free-agency/

 

Would any of you do this trade?