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Colts Trade for Wentz (details in first post)


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I am never playing poker with Ballard. My god that's a steal.

Long time Eagles fan, here is my rundown on Carson Wentz. I'll start with Wentz the person/teammate. Through 2018 he was widely considered a great guy, great teammate, hard worker. Then out of t

From Adam Schefter: Philadelphia has agreed to trade Carson Wentz to the Indianapolis Colts in exchange for a 2021 third-round pick and a conditional 2022 second-round pick that could turn into a firs

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I'm more happy we can check the QB box now and move on, than anything else. I called a conditional pick, and hoped Ballard would stick to his guns. While I don't like the thought of giving up a future 1st round pick, I'm pretty OK with this.

 

We're protected if he gets injured the first 2/3rds of the season, and that's pretty big. We're not really protected if he is just mediocre or can't get it together. If that's the case, he can always be benched, which would surprise me even if he were very mediocre.

 

I'm really happy with just a 3rd this year though. My hope is he's fixable, and this looks like a super bargain next year when we're giving up a 1st.

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1 hour ago, dw49 said:

 

I think Philly did just fine too. Unless Wentz is injured or plays horribly , he's pretty much a cinch to play 75% of the plays. That is If he plays just decently and is healthy . The Colts would need to sit him the last 4 games in order to keep next year's compensation at a 2nd rounder. Colts should have a roster good enough to be in contention after game 12 even with unspectacular QB play. So IMO , it's pretty much a 2021 3rd and 2022 first unless he get's hurt or benched for Eason. 

Hopefully they sit him in the 4th quarter when the Colts are either winning big or losing big.  Get's Eason some game time and gives us an inch if we need it later in the season if Wentz gets hurt.

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1 minute ago, Superman said:

@csmopar

 

This was your post from the other thread:

 

I crossed out 2 and 3 because I don't think they're still relevant. Now that we did the trade and we know the cost, what would it take for you to think he's good enough for the Colts to contend with him?

 

And do you think the Colts can get that kind of performance out of him?

I would be happy if A: He stays healthy, B: if he cuts the INTs down to at least his 2018/2019 seasons/ C: If he can perform top 15 as far as QBs go this season.   If he can do that, I think he could get us the division title back and make a playoff run. But I also think thats the best case right now.

 

Do I think they can, yes, to be honest.  I think the Colts staff have that ability and it think the supporting casts around him are better than what he's had since at least 2018. 

 

I will add, I think Ballard pulled off a steal here. A big one. Worst case is best case no matter which way the season goes.  We lose our first next year if he balls out, if he doesn't and is benched, we keep our first and it only costs us 2, day 2 picks overall.  

3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I'm more happy we can check the QB box now and move on, than anything else. I called a conditional pick, and hoped Ballard would stick to his guns. While I don't like the thought of giving up a future 1st round pick, I'm pretty OK with this.

 

We're protected if he gets injured the first 2/3rds of the season, and that's pretty big. We're not really protected if he is just mediocre or can't get it together. If that's the case, he can always be benched, which would surprise me even if he were very mediocre.

 

I'm really happy with just a 3rd this year though. My hope is he's fixable, and this looks like a super bargain next year when we're giving up a 1st.

Agreed

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2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I'm more happy we can check the QB box now and move on, than anything else. I called a conditional pick, and hoped Ballard would stick to his guns. While I don't like the thought of giving up a future 1st round pick, I'm pretty OK with this.

 

We're protected if he gets injured the first 2/3rds of the season, and that's pretty big. We're not really protected if he is just mediocre or can't get it together. If that's the case, he can always be benched, which would surprise me even if he were very mediocre.

 

I'm really happy with just a 3rd this year though. My hope is he's fixable, and this looks like a super bargain next year when we're giving up a 1st.

We are kind of protected if he is mediocre. At that point he probably would get benched and not get the snaps for the eagles to get that first.

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I hope it works out, what will out team look like next year, will Hilton & Doyle still be in Indy, who will be the LT? If we are in the playoff picture in December it worked out, If fans are coming to games in December with Ryan Grigson's face with the caption "miss me yet" then we know it didn't work out.

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4 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

We are kind of protected if he is mediocre. At that point he probably would get benched and not get the snaps for the eagles to get that first.

 

I think we are married to Wentz for at least two years.

 

If it doesn't work out we can get rid of him in the 3rd year I believe.

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1 minute ago, horseshoepower said:

, If fans are coming to games in December with Ryan Grigson's face with the caption "miss me yet" then we know it didn't work out.

Even if this doesn't work out, that wont be happening.

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7 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

We're protected if he gets injured the first 2/3rds of the season, and that's pretty big. We're not really protected if he is just mediocre or can't get it together. If that's the case, he can always be benched, which would surprise me even if he were very mediocre.

 

Mediocre is probably worst case scenario, because he won't get benched if he's decent but we're not winning. Let's say he has a 2020 Stafford season, and we're 8-8, that would suck.

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3 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I'm really surprised the conditions are based on playing time. If Wentz is good, we'll be giving up a first in 2022.

he doesn't necessarily have to be "good" he just has to take 75% of the offensive snaps

 

so theoretically he could have a meh season, Colts finish somewhere around 8-8, miss the playoffs, and not have a 1st rounder in 2022

 

not likely (thankfully) but at least possible

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1 hour ago, indyagent17 said:

You have to love Ballard to stick to his guns. He did not give up too much for Wentz. Worst case is a first round pick in 2022 IF Wentz plays well or leads us to the playoffs. I get a feeling Ballard will trade back in the draft to get another 3rd round pick for next year.  Now if we go OT there are several solid players so I could see us trading back and still get one of those. I think we now have the potential of franchise QB assuming he can stay healthy. He has all the physical tools to be great he just needs to free up space between his ears.

 

I agree with this. I think the chances of Ballard trading back from #21 just skyrocketed. As you say, there appear to be a number of good options at OT this year, so it's possible we could get a QB and a left tackle, and still get back some portion of the picks that we just traded away.

 

Ballard is a freakin' genius, man. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

What eagles players are excited for him to leave?

 

I want to make sure we are reading this the right way. Those players are happy that he is leaving Philly because they know how much of a crapshoot the organization has become. Not because they are happy to get him off the team because he was a detriment.

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5 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

We are kind of protected if he is mediocre. At that point he probably would get benched and not get the snaps for the eagles to get that first.

Nah. Doubt he's benched for being mediocre. His cut off would be more or less 12 games. Let's say we're 6 and 6, and playing very conservative (run heavy) to win games while Wentz is simply inconsistent and in the 15-25 range in most stat categories. That would be mediocre, but I don't see Frank giving up on him at that point. Even if we were 5-7, doubt they'd pull the trigger.

 

IMO, even a low ceiling guy like JB can go 6-6. I'd bet Fitzmagic and several others could go at least 6-6. In other words, with the OL, running game, conservatives scheme, defense, etc., this team is built well and a lot of QBs should be able to go at least .500.

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1 minute ago, csmopar said:

heres a question, if you're ballard, do you trade back in round 1 this year for a round 1 next year?

I think it depends how many good players are still on the board when the Colts pick comes around.

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1 minute ago, csmopar said:

heres a question, if you're ballard, do you trade back in round 1 this year for a round 1 next year?

 

It's hard to get a 1st round pick by just trading back out of the first round when you are in the later half of the first round.

 

I would say no, you grab your left tackle with that pick unless there is an elite pass rusher still on the board than try and get your left tackle with the 2nd.  

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7 minutes ago, csmopar said:

I would be happy if A: He stays healthy, B: if he cuts the INTs down to at least his 2018/2019 seasons/ C: If he can perform top 15 as far as QBs go this season.   If he can do that, I think he could get us the division title back and make a playoff run. But I also think thats the best case right now.

 

Do I think they can, yes, to be honest.  I think the Colts staff have that ability and it think the supporting casts around him are better than what he's had since at least 2018. 

 

I will add, I think Ballard pulled off a steal here. A big one. Worst case is best case no matter which way the season goes.  We lose our first next year if he balls out, if he doesn't and is benched, we keep our first and it only costs us 2, day 2 picks overall.  

 

Fair enough.

 

I can't speak to his mindset, but I know physically, his footwork and decision making were problematic in 2020, downright bad at times. 

 

I look at JB's footwork in 2017, and compare it with his footwork in 2019. Leaps and bounds better. Reportedly, Marcus Brady was instrumental in JB's improved footwork. Now, he's the OC. New QB coach is Scott Milanovich, who has helped awful passers like Bortles and Minshew look like serviceable NFL QBs, including an AFCCG season from Bortles in 2017. He coached Marcus Brady at QB in the CFL. He coached Anthony Calvillo in the CFL, who was a pretty dynamic passer by CFL standards. I don't know what to say about Press Taylor as a coach, reports are mixed, but he was with Wentz during his high times in Philly. And of course, Reich, who worked closely with Wentz as he improved his footwork in his first two seasons.

 

A lot of these guys worked with Luck in 2018, when he changed his style to be a decisive passer, and had the most efficient season of his career.

 

So I feel confident that the Colts have a good enough staff to help Wentz work on his physical issues, his command of the offense, and his decision making on the field.

 

It's unknown, but it's a pessimistic approach to assume that Wentz will be bad in 2021 because he was bad in 2020. Not saying that's your approach, but it seems like everything negative about Wentz is based pretty heavily on 2020.

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8 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Mediocre is probably worst case scenario, because he won't get benched if he's decent but we're not winning. Let's say he has a 2020 Stafford season, and we're 8-8, that would suck.

Yup. IMO, he'd have to be incredibly bad to get benched before game 12. Given the investment, Reich's past with him, and just our QB situations in general, it's even hard to see them abandoning him by game 12 even if he's borderline bad (not even really mediocre). 

 

PS... The other thread is locked now, but still interested in your feedback on the 2 Qs I asked (on Sirianni).

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21 minutes ago, PRnum1 said:

 

I think we are married to Wentz for at least two years.

 

If it doesn't work out we can get rid of him in the 3rd year I believe.



If he's a bust , we can cut him after 2021 with no cap hit ... I believe .

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4 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

PS... The other thread is locked now, but still interested in your feedback on the 2 Qs I asked (on Sirianni).

 

You mind posting me a link so I don't have to try to find it? 

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1 hour ago, indyagent17 said:

You have to love Ballard to stick to his guns. He did not give up too much for Wentz. Worst case is a first round pick in 2022 IF Wentz plays well or leads us to the playoffs. I get a feeling Ballard will trade back in the draft to get another 3rd round pick for next year.  Now if we go OT there are several solid players so I could see us trading back and still get one of those. I think we now have the potential of franchise QB assuming he can stay healthy. He has all the physical tools to be great he just needs to free up space between his ears.

My understanding is that the 2022 pick becomes a #1 if Wentz takes 75% of the 2021 snaps, whether he "plays well" or not. So it is at least possible for the Colts & Wentz to miss the playoffs next season and then not have a 1st round pick. Unlikely, I'd have to think, but at least theoretically possible. Maybe that condition allows Roseman to partially "save face" with the Philly media?

 

if Ballard trades back from #21 he should definitely get more than a future 3rd---like, for example, a 2nd this year, maybe even a #2 and #3 this year, perhaps at a minimum a #2 this year and #3 next year.

 

and you're correct IMO about very promising OTs still being there in Round 2---possibly Radunz, Cosmi, Leatherwood, Little, etc

 

if Ballard could manage to sign Hunter Henry then the need for a downfield receiver diminishes somewhat--he could still find a speed guy in the 2nd or even 3rd Rounds. He could also find a promising cornerback in Round 2 even after the "top tier" of guys (Surtain, Farley, Horn) are gone in Round 1.

 

I assume CB will also at least consider signing a backup QB, unless he feels Eason is truly ready now to be that guy.

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8 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

It's hard to get a 1st round pick by just trading back out of the first round when you are in the later half of the first round.

 

I would say no, you grab your left tackle with that pick unless there is an elite pass rusher still on the board than try and get your left tackle with the 2nd.  

Just from a capital perspective, our 1st is worth two mid 2nds, or a very late 1st, and late 2nd. If we're talking future picks, a pick today is worth more than the one tomorrow, so our return would likely be hire. And then depending on the team wanting our 1st, their level want/need factors. Are they desperate? Every draft somebody gives up way to much from a pure capital perspective, to go get the guy they want. 

 

It's a deep T draft. With Nelson at LG, there's less of a true need to go 1st round for a LT.

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I am good with it. On the surface...it's much more of a compromise...than a steal.

 

The Colts assume risk...trading for a player who has ended on up IR twice (in 4 seasons)...and who was benched last season. So if he doesn't meet that 75% snap threshold...it's not a huge surprise.

 

And if that happens...that he gets hurt or is benched...then it's not a very good deal just because they "only" have to give up a 2nd round pick now. They are still out (2) Day Two picks.

 

So it we are being objective...for this to be a good deal...the Colts have to give up that 1st round pick next season. Any scenario (for this year) where they don't...then it's not a good deal. It's sort of a catch 22 in that way...and a good compromise on the part of Ballard and Roseman.

 

But it can become a steal if Wentz gets back to his 2017 performance.

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3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Just from a capital perspective, our 1st is worth two mid 2nds, or a very late 1st, and late 2nd. If we're talking future picks, a pick today is worth more than the one tomorrow, so our return would likely be hire. And then depending on the team wanting our 1st, their level want/need factors. Are they desperate? Every draft somebody gives up way to much from a pure capital perspective, to go get the guy they want. 

 

It's a deep T draft. With Nelson at LG, there's less of a true need to go 1st round for a LT.

 

We could maybe push it back into the 2nd but I think the identity of our team is going to center around a good OL.  If we don't get a LT than we put that identity at risk.

 

I suppose we could get one in FA to kick the can down the road so to speak, but if it's a deep LT draft, why wait?  

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1 minute ago, jvan1973 said:

No cap hit after this year according to sportrac

 

If you read on overthecap, part of the 2022 salary becomes guaranteed in March of this year.  So it's not guaranteed now but it will be in a few weeks.

 

That said we could still cut ties with him if he was that bad and gain back some cap space.  

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Bringing in Phil was a success, but it's good to once again have some mobility in the red zone. It will also be nice to have the quick out and WR screen game back.  Phil's ball took so damn long to make it out there that, after a certain point, they seemed scared to throw it.

 

 

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