Chiefs favored by 3 and books won't move it.

[dw49]

This is for all those that think lines simply move with the betting in an effort to balance the betting. As I've tried to explain numerous times , it's often not the way it works. The books are carrying a tremendous overload of bets on KC but the line has remained 3. Below is an article confirming that. There are a few books quoting 3.5 but most are still 3.  The reason for this is 3 is a bad number to move off and the oddsmakers do often gamble with a line they know will attract what they think is the losing side .


https://www.rotoworld.com/article/odds-and-ends/oddsmakers-betting-brady-amid-kc-wagers

[FortheWin]

This game is going to be a lot closer than people think. Vegas usually gets its right.

[DownHillRunner]

The Bucs have no chance if they don’t put any pressure on Mahomes and not let Tyreek burn them. 

[New Zealands #1 Colts Fan]

https://i.stuff.co.nz/sport/nfl/300222383/texan-flies-to-colorado-to-make-nz483-million-super-bowl-bet-on-his-phone

 

This story made our news cycle here in New Zealand

[chad72]

Just goes to show you people are not going to bet more against Brady who has never lost a SB by more than 4. It is that simple!!!

[Superman]

4 hours ago, chad72 said:

Just goes to show you people are not going to bet more against Brady who has never lost a SB by more than 4. It is that simple!!!

 

Lost to the Eagles by 8, but I agree, they don't want a big spread, especially against Brady.

[Superman]

8 hours ago, dw49 said:

This is for all those that think lines simply move with the betting in an effort to balance the betting. As I've tried to explain numerous times , it's often not the way it works. The books are carrying a tremendous overload of bets on KC but the line has remained 3. Below is an article confirming that. There are a few books quoting 3.5 but most are still 3.  The reason for this is 3 is a bad number to move off and the oddsmakers do often gamble with a line they know will attract what they think is the losing side .


https://www.rotoworld.com/article/odds-and-ends/oddsmakers-betting-brady-amid-kc-wagers

 

Agreed, the lines are about risk. In some matchups, the risk is best mitigated by having even money (or close to it) on both sides. In some matchups, they might feel it's less risky to have more money on one side than the other. 

 

This game is an anomaly in a lot of ways, most notably that there will be a limited amount of fans in the stands, and also by the fact that the the Bucs are playing at their home stadium. (Do they have to stay in a hotel for the week?)

 

Also, it's my understanding that big money tends to move in closer to game day.

[Patagonia Chris]

12 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

 

Also, it's my understanding that big money tends to move in closer to game day.

Sharp money usually comes in two waves...first being when the line opens, second being the morning of the game when lines open. No one has touched on this yet here, but the books are facing a MASSIVE liability on Bucs futures. A lot of the futures bets on the Bucs were written at 25-1 back when Brady announced he was going there. ESPN Chalk had an article a couple weeks back where the books said the best option for them would be the Chiefs winning the super bowl, in regards to futures. This probably plays into the line not moving much just as much as any other factor. Load up on the Chiefs and if they cover, so be it, it’s a 7 figure win the futures pool. Plus props will take in a ton of money as well. The best outcome for the books come Sunday will be the Chiefs winning the game but not covering, I would imagine.

[Nate!]

8 hours ago, Grigson's Gaffes said:

Sharp money usually comes in two waves...first being when the line opens, second being the morning of the game when lines open. No one has touched on this yet here, but the books are facing a MASSIVE liability on Bucs futures. A lot of the futures bets on the Bucs were written at 25-1 back when Brady announced he was going there. ESPN Chalk had an article a couple weeks back where the books said the best option for them would be the Chiefs winning the super bowl, in regards to futures. This probably plays into the line not moving much just as much as any other factor. Load up on the Chiefs and if they cover, so be it, it’s a 7 figure win the futures pool. Plus props will take in a ton of money as well. The best outcome for the books come Sunday will be the Chiefs winning the game but not covering, I would imagine.

Bingo.  Books have huge liability on a Bucs championship so seemingly pushing money to the Chiefs side to hedge.  Chiefs lose, books have all that chiefs money to pay out the Bucs championship folks.  

[chad72]

11 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Lost to the Eagles by 8, but I agree, they don't want a big spread, especially against Brady.

 

Thanks. For some reason, I thought it was 41-38 and not 41-33. It makes sense because Brady was trying for a Hail Mary at the end!!!

[FortheWin]

16 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Agreed, the lines are about risk. In some matchups, the risk is best mitigated by having even money (or close to it) on both sides. In some matchups, they might feel it's less risky to have more money on one side than the other. 

 

This game is an anomaly in a lot of ways, most notably that there will be a limited amount of fans in the stands, and also by the fact that the the Bucs are playing at their home stadium. (Do they have to stay in a hotel for the week?)

 

Also, it's my understanding that big money tends to move in closer to game day.

No hotel for the Bucs.  Also the Chiefs are flying in today. They did not want to come sooner because of Covid.

Very different type of SB this year for a lot of reasons.

[King Colt]

Expect at least one trick play by both teams.