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If Ballard trades up, which QB should he select?


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Justin Fields - "It's what Fields has largely done best. There are instances of overconfidence in his arm and continuing to quicken his process beyond the first read is a needed point of emphasis for Fields to stay "on schedule" and keep his sack totals down, but that is inevitably going to be part of his game that his pro team will have to be ready to live with in the same way it it true for quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson and others. Their play can be a double-edged sword at times and so it will be for Fields, who is every bit as physically gifted as those previously mentioned named passers. Fields will need to arrive to a destination that embraces his ability to win with his legs and the QB run game or else run the risk of a bumpy road early on as a starting NFL quarterback; but if he is paired with a head coach or offensive coordinator who can pull the best parts of his college game and implement them in the NFL, Fields has the potential to splash early."

 

 

Trey Lance - "Trey Lance has aligned in the pistol, the gun, and has shown the ability to run the offense from under center. He plays the position with good athleticism, as evidenced by his ability to get out of the pocket and extend plays with his legs. Even within the pocket, his mobility and footwork seemed to have developed. Because he is a threat to move the chains with his legs, he needs to be accounted for in the zone-read game. As a passer, he seems to be able to generate velocity on his throws, which is critical for playing in the elements. He has also shown some touch and accuracy down the field on his deep throws. He needs to continue to develop the subtle nuances of the position to continue to maximize his natural talent as a passer."

 

 

Zach Wilson - "Zach Wilson plays the game with good athleticism overall, as evidenced by his ability to escape and evade pressure both in and out of the pocket. This athleticism makes him a viable threat in the zone-read, giving opponents another thing to defend. In the passing game, he has made tremendous strides since the 2019 season. Some of these feats are “rare.” In fact, his ability to throw the ball with timing and anticipation is elite. His production in the clutch has been money in several instances in 2020. He plays with the poise and moxie reminiscent of a high NFL draft pick."

 

 

 

 

 

My only gripe with Lance is his inability to make tight NFL throws because receivers are not going to always be wide open in the NFL. There were times I saw him throw to receivers with a defender nowhere in sight. I know a lot of people are high on Justin Fields because of his comparisons to Russ but and while I love Zach Wilson he has some maturity issues that need to be fixed. 

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  • DownHillRunner changed the title to If Ballard trades up, which QB should he select?
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Living in Ohio and hearing that Fields should of stayed in college another year.  Risk/Reward with Fields but I don't see him as a team fit with the Colts as a dual threat QB not what we normally go after.

 

Not as high on Lance either.  If had to choose a QB from this draft class give me Wilson or Jones without trading up.

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Realistically, these guys are all out of reach.  We have a serious disadvantage at 21, compared to other teams that may want to trade up from earlier in the draft (like NE at 15 or SF at 12).  Not to mention the high # of QB-needy teams in the Top 10 (Jax, NYJ, Atl., Car., Den, and maybe even Det/Mia/Philly) - you’d have to offer a ton to get out in front of all that.  I’m more interested in analysis of the next tier - Jones and Trask.  What do we expect out of those two, and when is a fair place to draft them?

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1 hour ago, Archer said:

Realistically, these guys are all out of reach.  We have a serious disadvantage at 21, compared to other teams that may want to trade up from earlier in the draft (like NE at 15 or SF at 12).  Not to mention the high # of QB-needy teams in the Top 10 (Jax, NYJ, Atl., Car., Den, and maybe even Det/Mia/Philly) - you’d have to offer a ton to get out in front of all that.  I’m more interested in analysis of the next tier - Jones and Trask.  What do we expect out of those two, and when is a fair place to draft them?

Correct.  That's why it makes more sense to trade 21 for a veteran like Carr or Cousins.  Even if we have to include another pick in the trade.  Much cheaper with a bigger bang for the buck so to speak.  

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2 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

That's why it makes more sense to trade 21 for a veteran like Carr or Cousins.

Might be hard to get them, both of those teams would be trading a good starter just to be in the position we are in now.  That would make things easy but i dont see why they would want to do that to themselves unless we blow them away with a trade

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23 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

Might be hard to get them, both of those teams would be trading a good starter just to be in the position we are in now.  That would make things easy but i dont see why they would want to do that to themselves unless we blow them away with a trade

There is already a thread about Cousins being available and a couple of articles reporting Carr could be available.  Those teams would use our pick to move up and get a QB or trade for Watson for example.  Not out of the realm of possibility.  So we get a QB and they get our picks to help them acquire their target.  I like it.  

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9 hours ago, DownHillRunner said:

Justin Fields - "It's what Fields has largely done best. There are instances of overconfidence in his arm and continuing to quicken his process beyond the first read is a needed point of emphasis for Fields to stay "on schedule" and keep his sack totals down, but that is inevitably going to be part of his game that his pro team will have to be ready to live with in the same way it it true for quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson and others. Their play can be a double-edged sword at times and so it will be for Fields, who is every bit as physically gifted as those previously mentioned named passers. Fields will need to arrive to a destination that embraces his ability to win with his legs and the QB run game or else run the risk of a bumpy road early on as a starting NFL quarterback; but if he is paired with a head coach or offensive coordinator who can pull the best parts of his college game and implement them in the NFL, Fields has the potential to splash early."

 

 

Trey Lance - "Trey Lance has aligned in the pistol, the gun, and has shown the ability to run the offense from under center. He plays the position with good athleticism, as evidenced by his ability to get out of the pocket and extend plays with his legs. Even within the pocket, his mobility and footwork seemed to have developed. Because he is a threat to move the chains with his legs, he needs to be accounted for in the zone-read game. As a passer, he seems to be able to generate velocity on his throws, which is critical for playing in the elements. He has also shown some touch and accuracy down the field on his deep throws. He needs to continue to develop the subtle nuances of the position to continue to maximize his natural talent as a passer."

 

 

Zach Wilson - "Zach Wilson plays the game with good athleticism overall, as evidenced by his ability to escape and evade pressure both in and out of the pocket. This athleticism makes him a viable threat in the zone-read, giving opponents another thing to defend. In the passing game, he has made tremendous strides since the 2019 season. Some of these feats are “rare.” In fact, his ability to throw the ball with timing and anticipation is elite. His production in the clutch has been money in several instances in 2020. He plays with the poise and moxie reminiscent of a high NFL draft pick."

 

 

 

 

 

My only gripe with Lance is his inability to make tight NFL throws because receivers are not going to always be wide open in the NFL. There were times I saw him throw to receivers with a defender nowhere in sight. I know a lot of people are high on Justin Fields because of his comparisons to Russ but and while I love Zach Wilson he has some maturity issues that need to be fixed. 

If the rumours are true and the Colts were in on Stafford and have shown interest to acquire Wentz. I think  that tells u what they may think of this class minus Lawrence.

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3 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

There is already a thread about Cousins being available and a couple of articles reporting Carr could be available.  Those teams would use our pick to move up and get a QB or trade for Watson for example.  Not out of the realm of possibility.  So we get a QB and they get our picks to help them acquire their target.  I like it.  

I guess those just seem fishy to me, like the "reports" about Luck coming back.  The 49ers have higher picks and a QB to trade in return too, it will be hard to match them 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

If the rumours are true and the Colts were in on Stafford and have shown interest to acquire Wentz. I think  that tells u what they may think of this class minus Lawrence.

Not really. It’ll cost way less in terms of draft picks (or so we thought with Stafford) to get Wentz then it will to get Lance, so it’s not hard to see why they might be interested. But price is irrelevant now after the Stafford trade. He went for two firsts and a player, Watson will go for 3 firsts and more, and moving up will cost multiple first too so there’s no way to really avoid paying up for an elite QB it seems. Wentz may be the only one because the Eagles may need to give up picks to essentially do a salary dump, but it’s still a lot of actual money you’d have to pay him.

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Just now, Defjamz26 said:

Not really. It’ll cost way less in terms of draft picks (or so we thought with Stafford) to get Wentz then it will to get Lance, so it’s not hard to see why they might be interested. But price is irrelevant now after the Stafford trade. He went for two firsts and a player, Watson will go for 3 firsts and more, and moving up will cost multiple first too so there’s no way to really avoid paying up for an elite QB it seems. Wentz may be the only one because the Eagles may need to give up picks to essentially do a salary dump, but it’s still a lot of actual money you’d have to pay him.

Ballard kind of % himself in the foot. He publicly says he doesnt know if Eason is ready to b a back up. Not smart. Now teams can squeeze him.

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Fields is the best prospect out of those 3 QB’s.  Even better than Lawrence if you look at their numbers (whether it’s accuracy, NFL tight window throws, or progressing to 2nd - 4th reads).  People keep saying that Fields is a 1 read QB.  I checked the PFF stats and they showed he went to his 2nd, 3rd, & 4th read way more than Lawrence.  Also his accuracy when going through his progressions (past his 1st read) was top 3 in the nation.  I didn’t even see Lawrence on the list.

 

So if Fields has put up better numbers across all metrics than Lawrence the supposed best can’t miss prospect since Luck, Manning, & Elway (let some tell it) then what does that make Fields?  Add in the fact that he played tougher competition and not one of his receivers or tight ends will be drafted in the first 4 rounds of the draft since he’s been playing.  That tells me that he’s doing more (or the same) with less than guys like Lawrence, Burrow, Tua, or Mac Jones.  Those 3 all had receivers taken in the first 2 rounds.

 

People keep trying to find ways to tear the guy down but the numbers and performance says different. Fields is the best QB in the draft.  I see a more accurate Deshaun Watson.  Pair Fields with Reich, Taylor, and Hines and I like our chances of winning the division next year and for many years to come afterwards.  I can also see Wilson stepping in and having some success as well.  Not as much as Fields because I think Fields running is dynamic and makes us extremely dangerous. Lance I think would struggle early.  He may need a couple years to get up to speed.  Fields & Wilson can win right away just like Luck, RG3, & Russell Wilson.  Also Watson (a lesser overall prospect coming out than Fields) went 11-5 his 2nd year in the league.  

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21 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

If the rumours are true and the Colts were in on Stafford and have shown interest to acquire Wentz. I think  that tells u what they may think of this class minus Lawrence.

Tells me they didn’t think they could get up high enough to get Fields or Wilson.  Don’t sleep on us still finding a way to go get one of those two.

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Just now, Smoke317 said:

Tells me they didn’t think they could get up high enough to get Fields or Wilson.  Don’t sleep on us still finding a way to go get one of those two.

Maybe Ballard is a little scares to put his stamp on the team? He knows he will finally be judged if he picks a rookie and he busts. Getting other teams left overs allows him more time in the GM chair. 

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If Trask or Jones falls to No.21 and you feel good about developing them without further pick loss, I'd say go for it. You can still get a veteran like Fitzpatrick or Foles to hold the fort for 1 year and let both the drafted QB and Eason fight it out for backup reps. Give them plenty of playing time during pre-season and see who handles pressure and the offense best.

 

Maybe schedule a pre-season game with a team that does enough blitzing (like Saints or Ravens) and give all QBs plenty of practice going against that. I doubt teams have the luxury of staying vanilla too much if there are only 2 pre-season games.

7 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Maybe Ballard is a little scares to put his stamp on the team? He knows he will finally be judged if he picks a rookie and he busts. Getting other teams left overs allows him more time in the GM chair. 

 

Not if they crash and burn too. My question is, why not both? Draft one and get a vet, let Eason fight with the drafted QB for back up reps.

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16 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Maybe Ballard is a little scares to put his stamp on the team? He knows he will finally be judged if he picks a rookie and he busts. Getting other teams left overs allows him more time in the GM chair. 

That’s an interesting point. Definitely something to think about.  But there’s maybe a flip side to that.  If Ballard brings in a rookie it does put his stamp on the team and it also puts serious pressure on Reich.  If Reich (the QB whisperer like some think he is) can’t get the most out of a Fields or Wilson then maybe that opens the door for Ballard to find a different coach (Ryan Day a very respected offensive mind was even rumored for the Jags job)?  Would make a lot of sense to get him and pair him with Fields.  
 

I could see Frank pushing the veteran QB angle over having to groom a young QB who could lead to his firing if it doesn’t work outearly.  Maybe that’s why we keep hearing Frank asking Peyton about veteran QB’s and not Ballard?  Just heard Orlovsky on ESPN say he talked to a current coach for 20 plus minutes about Wentz and if he thought he could be salvaged?

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24 minutes ago, Smoke317 said:

Tells me they didn’t think they could get up high enough to get Fields or Wilson.  Don’t sleep on us still finding a way to go get one of those two.

Especially if one or both fall to around pick 7. They can certainly deal up for that pick. If KC can jump up to 10 from 27 by giving up their 1st, next year's 1st, and a 3rd, Ballard can do it as well. 

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11 minutes ago, Smoke317 said:

That’s an interesting point. Definitely something to think about.  But there’s maybe a flip side to that.  If Ballard brings in a rookie it does put his stamp on the team and it also puts serious pressure on Reich.  If Reich (the QB whisperer like some think he is) can’t get the most out of a Fields or Wilson then maybe that opens the door for Ballard to find a different coach (Ryan Day a very respected offensive mind was even rumored for the Jags job)?  Would make a lot of sense to get him and pair him with Fields.  
 

I could see Frank pushing the veteran QB angle over having to groom a young QB who could lead to his firing if it doesn’t work outearly.  Maybe that’s why we keep hearing Frank asking Peyton about veteran QB’s and not Ballard?  Just heard Orlovsky on ESPN say he talked to a current coach for 20 plus minutes about Wentz and if he thought he could be salvaged?

Honestly, I believe more in Franks abiltiy to develop a qb then Ballards abiltiy to draft one. Luck had his best year under Frank. I beleive Frank squeezed everything he could out of Brissett.  Rivers had a good year. 

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10 hours ago, OhioColt said:

Living in Ohio and hearing that Fields should of stayed in college another year.  Risk/Reward with Fields but I don't see him as a team fit with the Colts as a dual threat QB not what we normally go after.

 

Not as high on Lance either.  If had to choose a QB from this draft class give me Wilson or Jones without trading up.

 

Wilson has a chance to be the best QB in this class. I don't know if his maturity issues are true or not but if he cleans that up he could be a superstar. I see a lot of those Mahomes type throws from him. 

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10 hours ago, OhioColt said:

Living in Ohio and hearing that Fields should of stayed in college another year.  Risk/Reward with Fields but I don't see him as a team fit with the Colts as a dual threat QB not what we normally go after.

 

Not as high on Lance either.  If had to choose a QB from this draft class give me Wilson or Jones without trading up.

Of course the people in Ohio want him to stay another year.  He’s the best QB Ohio State has ever had and they know they can potentially win a championship with him.  There’s no reason for him to stay though.  His numbers scream top 5 pick.  And he’s a perfect fit for the Colts system. Frank has been saying he wants a top 5 rushing team to go with our top rated OLine.  A dual threat QB is perfect to help accomplish that.  Also a dual threat QB gives you so many more options in the red zone.

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45 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Honestly, I believe more in Franks abiltiy to develop a qb then Ballards abiltiy to draft one. Luck had his best year under Frank. I beleive Frank squeezed everything he could out of Brissett.  Rivers had a good year. 

Luck was already stamped as damn good or even great before Frank became coach.  I’m sure he helped him grow some but he didn’t develop Luck.  He didn’t develop Phillip either.  I like Frank as a coach.  He’s had Luck & Rivers and 1 year of Brisset. But over these 3 years, he has the same record as Matt Nagy who had Trubisky and Foles playing QB for him.  Maybe Frank helped in Wentz development?  
 

Regardless, I don’t trust Frank as a coach or QB whisperer over Ballard’s ability as a GM and he and his staff’s ability to draft a QB.  The only issue I’ve seen with Ballard and the draft is drafting DLineman or corners.  Everything else has had a pretty decent success rate. So we should look for D Linemen and Corners in free agency.  The rest (including a QB) I trust Ballard and his staff to make the right choice. 

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1 hour ago, BProland85 said:

Especially if one or both fall to around pick 7. They can certainly deal up for that pick. If KC can jump up to 10 from 27 by giving up their 1st, next year's 1st, and a 3rd, Ballard can do it as well. 

 

The problem is that team was Buffalo Bills in 2017 and they did not have a trade like the Stafford trade happen in that same off season to mess things up in terms of QB trade value. 4 years is a while ago still, and our move up would also scream desperation, to be taken advantage of in this unpleasant QB trade environment this year.

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My preferences right now go Wilson->Fields or Lance -> trade down/out -> Mac Jones 

 

I think all of the first 3 options would be great QB prospects to get and develop and I would cheer Ballard on if he decides to go get any of them(almost regardless of the price). They all are modern day QBs that can make plays not just in structure but out of structure and on the move too. And if we are not getting any of them, I would like us to trade down or out of the 1st round with the compensation being future picks that we can use next year to draft a QB. 

 

I can be talked into Mac Jones... but... I don't see high upside with him. I agree with Greg Cosell who said his ceiling is someone like Kirk Cousins... and I see the exact same thing. 

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Finally...a question I know the answer to. It's Zach Wilson...and not even close. 


Wilson has the highest PFF grade ever of any non Power-5 QB....at 95.4. That was .4 off the Power 5 record...at 95.8.

 

The Power 5 record is Mac Jones...who has thrown to 4 1st round WRs...with Metchie likely being the 5th in 2022. 

 

Wilson had ridiculous accuracy last year...and it wasn't from short throws. His air yards/attempt was 12.3 yards lol. That was more than 1 yard further than his yards/attempt.

 

He throws like Mahomes and Rodgers. Not saying he's that good...but he can throw the deep ball like that...it something to behold. And if the Colts can trade up and get him...he will be the second-best QB in Colts history by 2030. And he will have more rings than PFM. I am not %ting. Ballard should have no problem selling future draft picks to get that man on a cheap rookie deal.

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6 hours ago, Archer said:

Realistically, these guys are all out of reach.  We have a serious disadvantage at 21, compared to other teams that may want to trade up from earlier in the draft (like NE at 15 or SF at 12).  Not to mention the high # of QB-needy teams in the Top 10 (Jax, NYJ, Atl., Car., Den, and maybe even Det/Mia/Philly) - you’d have to offer a ton to get out in front of all that.  I’m more interested in analysis of the next tier - Jones and Trask.  What do we expect out of those two, and when is a fair place to draft them?

It can, and does, get done when teams are motivated.  Where do you think KC traded form to grab Kermit? That wasn't long ago....

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2 hours ago, DownHillRunner said:

 

Wilson has a chance to be the best QB in this class. I don't know if his maturity issues are true or not but if he cleans that up he could be a superstar. I see a lot of those Mahomes type throws from him. 


I think Wilson has the biggest range between ceiling and floor among Wilson/Fields/Lance.
 

Lance is the farthest away from his ceiling but looks to have a Kapernick-esque floor due to his size, running ability, and arm strength.

 

Wilson has great tape this year but a slight body type for the position. He’s already had surgery on his throwing hand and a torn labrum in each shoulder — with the one on his throwing arm also requiring surgery. SLAP injuries in particular are a big red flag for a QB.

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2 minutes ago, BSteph1 said:


I think Wilson has the biggest range between ceiling and floor among Wilson/Fields/Lance.
 

Lance is the farthest away from his ceiling but looks to have a Kapernick-esque floor due to his size, running ability, and arm strength.

 

Wilson has great tape this year but a slight body type for the position. He’s already had surgery on his throwing hand and a torn labrum in each shoulder — with the one on his throwing arm also requiring surgery. SLAP injuries in particular are a big red flag for a QB.

 

The surgeries are concerning...but look what he is doing AFTER them. He has a cannon. 


He has a slight frame right now...but Mahomes was about 225 when he was a prospect. I think Wilson could add 20 lbs. 

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57 minutes ago, BSteph1 said:


I think Wilson has the biggest range between ceiling and floor among Wilson/Fields/Lance.
 

Lance is the farthest away from his ceiling but looks to have a Kapernick-esque floor due to his size, running ability, and arm strength.

 

Wilson has great tape this year but a slight body type for the position. He’s already had surgery on his throwing hand and a torn labrum in each shoulder — with the one on his throwing arm also requiring surgery. SLAP injuries in particular are a big red flag for a QB.

Good post. I worry about the shoulder and slight frame with Wilson as well.  Combined with his size.  Luck looked like he lost some zip on his passes late in his last season.  I like Wilson’s game.  From the games of his I’ve watched, he can make all of the throws. 


I just wonder if his arm strength & accuracy will hold up through a 16 game NFL season & a few playoff games?  I’d be scared running the read option with him and risking that shoulder.  He can spin it though.  Different arm angles.  Throws on the move.  
 

As far as accurate NFL caliber throws in tight windows I’ve got Wilson & Fields far in front of Lance.  And Lawrence too if being honest. 

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55 minutes ago, Shafty138 said:

It can, and does, get done when teams are motivated.  Where do you think KC traded form to grab Kermit? That wasn't long ago....

Fair enough.  However, it seems way too far fetched for us from where we are.  I’ve seen nothing to suggest Ballard would part with the assets (particularly draft picks) to move up that far.  He’s gonna play it cool and pick up the best veteran QB that is available.  SF could be an interesting option - they could deal us Garoppolo and use our 1st to help move up 5 spots to Detroit’s pick (which should net them Lance).

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4 hours ago, Smoke317 said:

Luck was already stamped as damn good or even great before Frank became coach.  I’m sure he helped him grow some but he didn’t develop Luck.  He didn’t develop Phillip either.  I like Frank as a coach.  He’s had Luck & Rivers and 1 year of Brisset. But over these 3 years, he has the same record as Matt Nagy who had Trubisky and Foles playing QB for him.  Maybe Frank helped in Wentz development?  
 

Regardless, I don’t trust Frank as a coach or QB whisperer over Ballard’s ability as a GM and he and his staff’s ability to draft a QB.  The only issue I’ve seen with Ballard and the draft is drafting DLineman or corners.  Everything else has had a pretty decent success rate. So we should look for D Linemen and Corners in free agency.  The rest (including a QB) I trust Ballard and his staff to make the right choice. 

 

You didn't see the difference in Luck's approach under Reich? Yeah, that's a bit of an untruth.

Rivers was who he was, what development did you want from a 60year old QB? He put up one of the best seasons in Colts QB history, what more would you want? In San Diego, he though enough about Reich to want to play for him and only him later in his career.

Fair to call out Reich (and Ballard) on their overall record but context is important and truth too.

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1 hour ago, Shafty138 said:

It can, and does, get done when teams are motivated.  Where do you think KC traded form to grab Kermit? That wasn't long ago....

I agree and think it's doable.

The problem though is that the QB market this season is incredible. There are a good number of teams who need QBs, I dont remember the last time so many teams went into the off season with such obvious needs at the position. Also, the cost of doing business may be excessive.

 

Still, CB has said he thinks this year's class has some good QBs. I dont think he will shirk from spending. Lets see where some of these vets end up, and watch draft day closely. Beyond all the talk, when the draft unfolds, things generally have a way of being a bit unpredictable. If the top 4 picks go and there's still a good QB that Ballard adores available, i bet he starts trying to pull the trigger. My eye is on the Bengals pick or Detroit's pick.....depending on how the draft shakes out.

 

Also, because of how adept this staff has shown themselves to be at drafting, i wouldn't worry too much about giving up two ones. They can always trade down from 53 and stack picks.

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9 hours ago, Archer said:

Realistically, these guys are all out of reach.  We have a serious disadvantage at 21, compared to other teams that may want to trade up from earlier in the draft (like NE at 15 or SF at 12).  Not to mention the high # of QB-needy teams in the Top 10 (Jax, NYJ, Atl., Car., Den, and maybe even Det/Mia/Philly) - you’d have to offer a ton to get out in front of all that.  I’m more interested in analysis of the next tier - Jones and Trask.  What do we expect out of those two, and when is a fair place to draft them?

Trask would be best. People are  to hung up on mobility 

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