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1 hour ago, Myles said:

Overwhelming support for Stafford.

I'm a little surprised at the votes for Eason.  He's a total unknown and the Colts need a proven QB.   I say that because they have a good O-line and a good defense.   Almost everywhere else they a in pretty good shape and have the cap space to fix a few of those spots in free agency.  

I have no idea on Eason, but I ‘hope’ he is the guy.  I agree they need a proven guy, so if they roll with Eason, I trust that Ballard and company like what they see in him and feel he can get the job done.  I don’t believe they’d throw him out there otherwise.  Saves us draft capital for other needs while continuing to build around a young guy with a young team.  Certainly wishful thinking and more of a ‘if they go with it, I agree with it’ answer, but it would be the best scenario.

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8 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Fair enough. No one thought Mahomes would be what he is right now. Right coaching, right system, right supporting cast.

 

We sure don't have the offensive playmakers with wow factors that Mahomes is surrounded with to embellish any new QB drafted with such a cost, there is that too. Dodds and Ballard probably believe in the Seahawks way more than the Chiefs way, based on how they have drafted OL and Defense in Round 1, though it is slightly changing with early Round 2 picks in Pittman and Taylor. Still, nothing like a Hill or Kelce. 

Good points all.  Like you, I don't see Ballard willing to commit such a chunk of draft capital to the land of the unknowns...but I also think he's more ready than ever to capitulate a bit on his public statements that it's about the team not the QB.  I'll bet in meetings with Irsay, Ballard and Dodds are ready to admit that you don't beat Mahomes, Allen, etc in the playoffs unless you can close...it's not just about scoring enough points to win, it's the probability of scoring at winning time.  They can replace Luck's productivity, pretty much did with an efficient year from Rivers, but they are nowhere near Luck's closing ability.  That guy had an unbelievable 4Q win rate....

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1 hour ago, Myles said:

Is that what you would hook your cart to?    You are a football fan, so you must know from watching games that Tebow, Bortles and Mariotta are nowhere near Staffords level.  

I’d actually rather not hook my cart to any of the names listed.  And I do think that Stafford is more talented and statistically better than all those guys.  Yet after a decade he’s never really accomplished much of anything.  He’s got a lot of 4th quarter comebacks and garbage time stats.  Tells me he’s good at getting down and then building up momentum against prevent defenses and pulling out some late victories.  
 

Kinda like Rivers did against the Bengals last season (our only win where Rivers passed on more than 60% of the play calls).  But he couldn’t work that magic against winning teams.  I expect the same from Stafford.  We’ll beat the bums.  He may actually lose a couple of those judging by his track record (pass happy Rivers only lost to the Jags).  But when it comes time to play the top teams I just don’t think he gets us pass the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Dolphins, Browns, or Steelers.  
 

I can see us regressing to 8-8 or 9-7 with Stafford (very easily could have happened last year if we didn’t pull out 2 miracles against Houston).  That would truly be a wasted season whereas a season like that could be considered successful with a rookie earning his stripes.  If Stafford could recognize (unlike Rivers) that we need to be more of a running team and don’t need him to play the hero then I’d be interested in Stafford for the right price.  I just think the price will be too high for a classic underachieving QB. 

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I vote for Sam Ehlinger.  TX Longhorn

 

Just look up his stats.....

 

Career Stats

 

STATS CMP  ATT  CMP% YDS    AVG TD INT LNG RTG 

2020  194    322  60.2      2,566  8.0   26    5    78  150.7

2019   296   454   65.2     3,663  8.1   32   10  75    151.8

2018  275    425   64.7     3,292  7.7   25     5   48  146.8

2017  158    275    57.5    1,915  7.0   11     7   90   124.1 

 

 

JK

 

 

 

 

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47 minutes ago, ztboiler said:

Good points all.  Like you, I don't see Ballard willing to commit such a chunk of draft capital to the land of the unknowns...but I also think he's more ready than ever to capitulate a bit on his public statements that it's about the team not the QB.  I'll bet in meetings with Irsay, Ballard and Dodds are ready to admit that you don't beat Mahomes, Allen, etc in the playoffs unless you can close...it's not just about scoring enough points to win, it's the probability of scoring at winning time.  They can replace Luck's productivity, pretty much did with an efficient year from Rivers, but they are nowhere near Luck's closing ability.  That guy had an unbelievable 4Q win rate....

 

Based on that, I definitely do not want Rodgers. He is such a front runner and has very few 4th qtr. comebacks in his career, not even half as much as Brees, Brady or Peyton. No wonder when he went down 10-28 vs Brady, he couldn't come back. Things happen in games, they don't always go as planned, so deficits are bound to happen and like you said, the QB needs to win in the 4th qtr.

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59 minutes ago, Smoke317 said:

I’d actually rather not hook my cart to any of the names listed.  And I do think that Stafford is more talented and statistically better than all those guys.  Yet after a decade he’s never really accomplished much of anything.  He’s got a lot of 4th quarter comebacks and garbage time stats.  Tells me he’s good at getting down and then building up momentum against prevent defenses and pulling out some late victories.  
 

Kinda like Rivers did against the Bengals last season (our only win where Rivers passed on more than 60% of the play calls).  But he couldn’t work that magic against winning teams.  I expect the same from Stafford.  We’ll beat the bums.  He may actually lose a couple of those judging by his track record (pass happy Rivers only lost to the Jags).  But when it comes time to play the top teams I just don’t think he gets us pass the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Dolphins, Browns, or Steelers.  
 

I can see us regressing to 8-8 or 9-7 with Stafford (very easily could have happened last year if we didn’t pull out 2 miracles against Houston).  That would truly be a wasted season whereas a season like that could be considered successful with a rookie earning his stripes.  If Stafford could recognize (unlike Rivers) that we need to be more of a running team and don’t need him to play the hero then I’d be interested in Stafford for the right price.  I just think the price will be too high for a classic underachieving QB. 

 

The year Stafford went to the playoffs, 2014 as a wild card:

 

The Lions defense finished second in the NFL in total defense, surrendering just 300.9 yards per game. They also finished third in points per game defense, giving up just 17.6 points a game while leading the NFL in rushing defense, yielding just 69.3 rush yards per game.

 

They were a bottom 5 rushing offense:

 

https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/offense/rushing/2014/reg/all

 

They were a Top 12 passing offense:

 

https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/offense/passing/2014/reg/all

 

This tells me that when you give the right defensive supporting cast, even without a solid run game, Stafford can get you to the playoffs. Add in the OL and rushing support we give him, I would have to project a better outcome. You have to remember, he went to an 0-16 Detroit Lions team when he was drafted in 2009. 

 

2010 - Bottom 10 rushing

2011 - Bottom 4 rushing

2012 - Bottom 10 rushing

2013 - 16th rushing

2014 - Bottom 5 rushing

2015 - Last rushing

2016 - Bottom 3 rushing

2017 - Bottom rushing

2018 - Bottom 10 rushing

2019 - Bottom 12 rushing

 

As you know, rushing is a factor of both RBs and OL, and game script is dictated by how good your D is for the rush to be a factor. Detroit defense has ranked bottom 2 both of the last 2 years, so you have to realize that has mattered too. If you have Megatron, you are damned if you do, and damned if you don't w.r.t throwing it to him in double coverage. Sometimes, it is easier to have lesser names to spread it around, IMO.

 

You have to consider all of this to get the whole picture. Of course Ballard and Reich will take all the history available while making this decision as well.

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17 minutes ago, jchandler7 said:

1. Watson (pipedream due to division)

2. Stafford (my choice on poll)

3. Trade up for Lance or Wilson

4. Last resort = Eason as starter & Winston or Fitzmagic as backup/mentor/emergency.

I agree. If we trade a first for Darnold I will be ticked off

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3 hours ago, BProland85 said:

If Stafford truly is going to cost a 1st plus more, I’d rather use that draft capital to get our longterm franchise guy by trading up in the draft. Fields and Lance could be had. 

 

You're not moving into the top 10 with #21 and a 2022 3rd. Not even close.

 

I'd much rather trade a 1st and a 3rd for a guy that we know is good than two 1sts, a 3rd and maybe more for a guy that might be good eventually, and will almost certainly not be good next season.

 

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3 hours ago, BProland85 said:

If Stafford truly is going to cost a 1st plus more, I’d rather use that draft capital to get our longterm franchise guy by trading up in the draft. Fields and Lance could be had. 

Odds are good that it will cost more to trade up for guys like Fields or Lance than it will to trade for Stafford. 
 

Plus there’s the factor that the team wants a quarterback who can help them win now.  Most rookie draft picks can’t do that. 

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42 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Based on that, I definitely do not want Rodgers. He is such a front runner and has very few 4th qtr. comebacks in his career, not even half as much as Brees, Brady or Peyton. No wonder when he went down 10-28 vs Brady, he couldn't come back. Things happen in games, they don't always go as planned, so deficits are bound to happen and like you said, the QB needs to win in the 4th qtr.

I think that’s the pivot point.  Ballard will be conservative about giving up draft capital and defer to roster building until he sees the kind of closing abilities he had in Luck.  Rare.

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1 hour ago, DougDew said:

I vote for Sam Ehlinger.  TX Longhorn

 

Just look up his stats.....

 

Career Stats

 

STATS CMP  ATT  CMP% YDS    AVG TD INT LNG RTG 

2020  194    322  60.2      2,566  8.0   26    5    78  150.7

2019   296   454   65.2     3,663  8.1   32   10  75    151.8

2018  275    425   64.7     3,292  7.7   25     5   48  146.8

2017  158    275    57.5    1,915  7.0   11     7   90   124.1 

 

 

JK

 

 

 

 

Don't mess with Texas 

Mac Jones

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I think the ideal situation is going into next year with Stafford/Eason combination.  They have similar games, similar 40 yard times.  Eason could learn a lot from him.  I have argued that Eason has as much POTENTIAL as any QB in this draft save Trevor Lawrence.  Potential being the key word.  He could be a bust. But I think he has just as much excelling as Trey Lance, who played less college games as Eason did and is from a small school.

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59 minutes ago, lennymoore24 said:

I think the ideal situation is going into next year with Stafford/Eason combination.  They have similar games, similar 40 yard times.  Eason could learn a lot from him.  I have argued that Eason has as much POTENTIAL as any QB in this draft save Trevor Lawrence.  Potential being the key word.  He could be a bust. But I think he has just as much excelling as Trey Lance, who played less college games as Eason did and is from a small school.

Agreed 100%.  Or Ryan/Eason. 

 

The timeline of the two vet Qbs retiring about the time Eason can take over makes too much sense.  Its one reason why Wentz isn't a great piece...too young.  

 

Its also why I would not spend high draft capital on a WR, still have to see Parris.  So a vet Qb and a vet WR to take over for TY (if we don't resign him) makes the most sense for getting more wins next year and still keeping the stream of players flowing through the roster over time.

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12 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Agreed 100%.  Or Ryan/Eason. 

 

The timeline of the two vet Qbs retiring about the time Eason can take over makes too much sense.  Its one reason why Wentz isn't a great piece...too young.  

 

Its also why I would not spend high draft capital on a WR, still have to see Parris.  So a vet Qb and a vet WR to take over for TY (if we don't resign him) makes the most sense for getting more wins next year and still keeping the stream of players flowing through the roster over time.

Matt Ryan isn't leaving Atlanta

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3 hours ago, shasta519 said:

Zach Wilson is the sure thing. Sam Darnold is the gamble.

 

I don't see Stafford being the difference in a SB team...unless Ballard goes all in with other moves. But he can't do that with Stafford getting $30M and the Colts losing early draft capital.

 

Was Darnold a 'sure thing' coming out? I don't remember.

 

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3 hours ago, Smoke317 said:

I’d actually rather not hook my cart to any of the names listed.  And I do think that Stafford is more talented and statistically better than all those guys.  Yet after a decade he’s never really accomplished much of anything.  He’s got a lot of 4th quarter comebacks and garbage time stats.  Tells me he’s good at getting down and then building up momentum against prevent defenses and pulling out some late victories.  
 

Kinda like Rivers did against the Bengals last season (our only win where Rivers passed on more than 60% of the play calls).  But he couldn’t work that magic against winning teams.  I expect the same from Stafford.  We’ll beat the bums.  He may actually lose a couple of those judging by his track record (pass happy Rivers only lost to the Jags).  But when it comes time to play the top teams I just don’t think he gets us pass the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Dolphins, Browns, or Steelers.  
 

I can see us regressing to 8-8 or 9-7 with Stafford (very easily could have happened last year if we didn’t pull out 2 miracles against Houston).  That would truly be a wasted season whereas a season like that could be considered successful with a rookie earning his stripes.  If Stafford could recognize (unlike Rivers) that we need to be more of a running team and don’t need him to play the hero then I’d be interested in Stafford for the right price.  I just think the price will be too high for a classic underachieving QB. 

Just so I understand...youre saying the Lions this year are as good as the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Dolphins, Browns, or Steelers if only Stafford played better in the first 3 quarters before garbage time when he shows up?

 

If not, then its sounds like you'd agree the Lions TEAM isnt on the level of Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Dolphins, Browns, or Steelers but you still expect Stafford to soundly beat them by himself and you  blame him if he cant do it. Also, if he does win it its only because the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Dolphins, Browns, or Steelers let him win by playing prevent defense.

 

Soo....what do you expect him to do to satisfy you? Win every game by himself, inspite of his team, but he can only be effective in the first 3 quarters so as not to win a comeback because those dont count as wins because the other team isnt trying to win anymore.

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35 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

Matt Ryan isn't leaving Atlanta

We talked about this last year.  

 

Another contract year off of the books.  He's getting closer....closer....closer.

 

I think ownership has officially said that they will entertain offers for both Julio Jones and Ryan.  Being able to get it done is another thing.

 

Georgia son Fields would look good in a Falcons Uni.

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45 minutes ago, Mitch Connors said:

Why is Stafford a short term solution? You guys realize he's a year older than Luck right?

So if Luck coming back was an option we'd say no because we need to start over with a long-term guy and Luck is too old?

That's why he is the perfect replacement.  We get to start off where we are supposed to be.

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15 minutes ago, Mitch Connors said:

Just so I understand...youre saying the Lions this year are as good as the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Dolphins, Browns, or Steelers if only Stafford played better in the first 3 quarters before garbage time when he shows up?

 

If not, then its sounds like you'd agree the Lions TEAM isnt on the level of Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Dolphins, Browns, or Steelers but you still expect Stafford to soundly beat them by himself and you  blame him if he cant do it. Also, if he does win it its only because the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Dolphins, Browns, or Steelers let him win by playing prevent defense.

 

Soo....what do you expect him to do to satisfy you? Win every game by himself, inspite of his team, but he can only be effective in the first 3 quarters so as not to win a comeback because those dont count as wins because the other team isnt trying to win anymore.

Basically what I’m saying is that Stafford is who he is just like Rivers is what we saw last season.  I can see Stafford performing similarly to Rivers.  We’ll come in with a gameplan of pounding the rock against the better teams.  Either through audibles (Rivers style) or poor early performance (Stafford style) we’ll get behind and abandon the running game.  
 

Stafford may throw for 300 yards against tough competition but it’ll be inefficient and we’ll ultimately lose games to the top teams in the AFC.  He’ll do ok against the poor teams (maybe not as good as Rivers 7-1) but struggle beating the top teams if we have to lean on him to carry the load.  If Stafford could come in and accept that we don’t need him to be a savior, I’d be more open to trading for him.  Our OLine, Taylor, & Hines are the engines powering this ship.  We just need him to steer it.  
 

Make the big throws when needed but ultimately lean on our OLine and the running game.  That’s why I think young mobile QB’s like Fields or Wilson could be effective right out of the gate.  Because both would add another dimension (QB runs) to make our backs even more dynamic. We could be top 3-5 in rushing.  Then the deep chunk passing plays to be had off run pass option.

 

A trend of teams moving up to get their young QB’s has started (Mahomes, Allen, Mayfield, Jackson & Herbert were all traded up for).  Also, Lawrence, Burrow, Tua, potentially Watson and Fields or Lawrence will be all competing in the AFC.  2 of those names potentially in our division. We can’t be the only team without a young QB trying to compete in the AFC.

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7 hours ago, Mackrel829 said:

Stafford for #21 and maybe another pick up to a 3rd next year would be my ideal scenario. Anything more than that and I like it less.

 

Agree 100% with this

 

My list in Order

1- Stafford

2 -Winston

3 - Wentz

4 - Darnold

5 - Garapolo

6 - Dalton

 

IMHO relying on Eason is sort of like driving to Ohio from Texas with 4 bald tires.  You MIGHT make it, but why would you try??

 

 EAson may end up being awesome, but its too early to toss him out there....  Darnold, Garapolo or Dalton could play at a higher level than Brissett.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Smoke317 said:

A trend of teams moving up to get their young QB’s has started (Mahomes, Allen, Mayfield, Jackson & Herbert were all traded up for).  Also, Lawrence, Burrow, Tua, potentially Watson and Fields or Lawrence will be all competing in the AFC.  2 of those names potentially in our division. We can’t be the only team without a young QB trying to compete in the AFC.

Justin Herbert wasn't traded up for, the Dolphins had the #5 pick and drafted Tua, and the Chargers held the next pick by virtue of their 5-11 record the season prior. They later admitted that had the Dolphins passed on Tagovailoa, they would've selected him with the #6 pick so basically they were okay with selecting either one.

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6 hours ago, DougDew said:

We talked about this last year.  

 

Another contract year off of the books.  He's getting closer....closer....closer.

 

I think ownership has officially said that they will entertain offers for both Julio Jones and Ryan.  Being able to get it done is another thing.

 

Georgia son Fields would look good in a Falcons Uni.

A dead cap hit of 40 million.   No way they can trade him

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32 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

A dead cap hit of 40 million.   No way they can trade him

If they trade him after June 1st, they can save $23m in cap space this season. Take a big dead cap hit next year.

 

Dead cap:

2021:$17.9m

2022:$26.5m

 

 

Not ideal, but they could move on if they want to.

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