Mock Offseason 1.0

[tvturner]

I have the Colts being active and making bigger moves than normal this offseason. We haven't really had a quiet offseason in around a decade so that trend is gonna continue here. 

 

 

Colts needs: QB, LT, DE, WR, CB, LB, DT

 

In-house: $68.6 million

Restructure Ryan Kelly $6.75m in savings

 

Colts Free Agents: $75.3 million

 

Re-Sign:

TY Hilton $8 million/1 year

Hilton has expressed a desire to stay and based off of Irsay's tweets I think he's coming back. A one to two year deal around $8m makes sense to me, as Pittman is emerging and I have them selecting a WR in Round 1

 

Xavier Rhodes $16 million/2 years

Rhodes played like a top CB for us during his prove it deal and bringing him back would bolster a weak CB group. His market is hard to gauge but something around 8-10m seems likely.

 

Depth Signings: 

Al-Quadin Muhammad $1.5 million/1 year

TJ Carrie $1 million/1 year

 

 

RFAs: $56.3 million

Zach Pascal $2.2m

Ashton Dulin $850k

George Odum $2.2m

Mo Alie-Cox $2.2m

 

 

Trades: $49.4 million

QB Matthew Stafford $43m/2 years

In all likelihood Detroit gets a first rounder in return here but I have the Colts sending their '21 and '22 second rounders in return for him.

He's still a elite talent and trading for him opens up the playbook anymore and can have us as serious contenders for the Super Bowl in years to come.

 

 

Let Walk: 

Jacoby Brissett - No point in him returning as Eason takes the backup job.

Justin Houston - He was better in 2020 than most people think, but I have us going a different direction at DE when Free Agency opens.

Denico Autry - I also have us going a different direction here in Free Agency, he's been great but I think we can get better value.

Malik Hooker - He doesn't fit the scheme, doesn't want to be here, and deserves a team that shows off his abilities.

Tavon Wilson - We can find better depth at S.

Trey Burton - His replacement comes in FA.

Marlon Mack - CB made it pretty clear that we wouldn't be paying him this offseason.

Anthony Walker - He's expressed a desire to start and Ballard acknowledged that he'd be gone.

 

 

NFL Free Agency: $29.4 million

DE JJ Watt $24 million/2 years, $11m in 2021, $13m in 2022

This all depends on if Houston cuts him. We have a need at DE and Watt still plays at an elite level. Pairing him with Buckner on one side would be a fantastic 1-2 combo.

 

DE/DT Solomon Thomas $6 million/1 year

He tore his ACL and missed the entire season on top of being a disappointing 3rd overall pick. I think he still has a lot of talent and could benefit by taking a prove it deal in Indianapolis.

Watt/Buckner/Stewart/Thomas sounds incredible to me. 

 

TE Zach Ertz $7.5 million/1 year 

It sounds like Ertz is on the way out and if he gets cut, Indianapolis makes a lot of sense. With Burton on the way out, Ertz gets to reunite with Frank Reich and join a very talented TE group.

 

 

NFL Draft:

Trade 21 to New Orleans for 28 and 60

Trade 60 and 148 to Washington for 51

 

R1P28 - Rashod Bateman WR Minnesota

I'm not sure if Bateman falls here but he has All-Pro potential. He can play both the outside and in the slot at an effective level, is a great route runner, and is strong at the point of the catch.

Bateman joining an offense with Hilton, Pittman, Campbell, JT, Hines, Ertz, MAC, and Doyle would certainly give us an explosive boost.

 

R2P51 - Liam Eichenberg OT Notre Dame

Eichenberg could very well go in the first round but with the amount of picks in the first round that will be WR/OT, I can see him falling down into the second.

Notre Dame's track record of elite OL talent continues every year, and he's an instant plug at LT. Liam's a better at run blocker than pass blocker, and it's an area he'll have to improve in.

 

R3P84 - Paulson Adebo CB Stanford

Adebo burnt his draft stock by returning to Stanford and sitting out of the season. He was a projected late first rounder last year, and could go anywhere from the 2nd to the 4th. He's an outside corner and he's much better than Rock Ya-Sin. He's a physical guy and he's got great ball skills and can play both man/zone. He needs to improve as a run defender and can have trouble with the quicker WRs in the NFL.

 

R4P117 - Pete Werner LB Ohio State

Werner fits in our 4-3 and would take over Walker's role. He's a big hitter and an above average run defender. He can play zone at a comfortable level but gets stiff if he ever gets called to play man. It'd give us a great LB room, and make sure Okereke knows he's got competition for his job.

 

R6P180 - Shaka Toney DE Penn State

Toney is a pass rush designate, with a lean frame and a quick step. He's not ever gonna be a starter but can provide speed off the edge in a limited role.

 

R7P211 - Ryan Van Demark OT Connecticut

I'm not going to act like I know much about the late round offensive lineman, but I can't see Ballard taking a depth guy in the later rounds.

[BProland85]

I could get on board with this, but I’d rather have Jackson Carman at LT with the 60th pick and no trade up. 
 

And I’d like to see Ballard make a push to sign FA DE Carl Lawson who is still ascending over Solomon Thomas and Watt. Watt fits better in a 3-4 I feel. 

[DownHillRunner]

BProland: Bro have you been reading my mock? lol I like Jackson Carman as well. 

 

 

 

Paulson Adebo in the 3rd round would be a steal. He plays a lot like Jalen Ramsey. Regarding Houston and Watt. I just don't see the thinking of signing Watt when Houston had 8 sacks last season and Watt hasn't sniffed 8 or more sacks since 2018. Plus, Watt said he would like to play with his brothers in Pittsburgh. I like Ertz a lot, but according to one poster who replied to my mock, Ertz is on the decline smh. 

[Four2itus]

3 hours ago, tvturner said:

Re-Sign:

TY Hilton $8 million/1 year

I would guess that someone will throw more money than that at TY. 

[Smonroe]

I think you’re right, Detroit isn’t going to go for that trade.  It would be nice though!

 

Nice draft.

[DaColts85]

In regards to TY. He wants one last contract so I highly doubt he does any one year contract. Many mocks have us giving him a one year deal and I just don’t see it. 

[Hoose]

2 hours ago, Smonroe said:

I think you’re right, Detroit isn’t going to go for that trade.  It would be nice though!

 

Nice draft.

Two 2’s for Stafford? Can’t see that. Likely will take a 1 and future high pick. You should do a follow up mock with #21 sent to Detroit. This draft IS good though. 

[NorthernColt]

15 hours ago, tvturner said:

I have the Colts being active and making bigger moves than normal this offseason. We haven't really had a quiet offseason in around a decade so that trend is gonna continue here. 

 

 

Colts needs: QB, LT, DE, WR, CB, LB, DT

 

In-house: $68.6 million

Restructure Ryan Kelly $6.75m in savings

 

Colts Free Agents: $75.3 million

 

Re-Sign:

TY Hilton $8 million/1 year

Hilton has expressed a desire to stay and based off of Irsay's tweets I think he's coming back. A one to two year deal around $8m makes sense to me, as Pittman is emerging and I have them selecting a WR in Round 1

 

Xavier Rhodes $16 million/2 years

Rhodes played like a top CB for us during his prove it deal and bringing him back would bolster a weak CB group. His market is hard to gauge but something around 8-10m seems likely.

 

Depth Signings: 

Al-Quadin Muhammad $1.5 million/1 year

TJ Carrie $1 million/1 year

 

 

RFAs: $56.3 million

Zach Pascal $2.2m

Ashton Dulin $850k

George Odum $2.2m

Mo Alie-Cox $2.2m

 

 

Trades: $49.4 million

QB Matthew Stafford $43m/2 years

In all likelihood Detroit gets a first rounder in return here but I have the Colts sending their '21 and '22 second rounders in return for him.

He's still a elite talent and trading for him opens up the playbook anymore and can have us as serious contenders for the Super Bowl in years to come.

 

 

Let Walk: 

Jacoby Brissett - No point in him returning as Eason takes the backup job.

Justin Houston - He was better in 2020 than most people think, but I have us going a different direction at DE when Free Agency opens.

Denico Autry - I also have us going a different direction here in Free Agency, he's been great but I think we can get better value.

Malik Hooker - He doesn't fit the scheme, doesn't want to be here, and deserves a team that shows off his abilities.

Tavon Wilson - We can find better depth at S.

Trey Burton - His replacement comes in FA.

Marlon Mack - CB made it pretty clear that we wouldn't be paying him this offseason.

Anthony Walker - He's expressed a desire to start and Ballard acknowledged that he'd be gone.

 

 

NFL Free Agency: $29.4 million

DE JJ Watt $24 million/2 years, $11m in 2021, $13m in 2022

This all depends on if Houston cuts him. We have a need at DE and Watt still plays at an elite level. Pairing him with Buckner on one side would be a fantastic 1-2 combo.

 

DE/DT Solomon Thomas $6 million/1 year

He tore his ACL and missed the entire season on top of being a disappointing 3rd overall pick. I think he still has a lot of talent and could benefit by taking a prove it deal in Indianapolis.

Watt/Buckner/Stewart/Thomas sounds incredible to me. 

 

TE Zach Ertz $7.5 million/1 year 

It sounds like Ertz is on the way out and if he gets cut, Indianapolis makes a lot of sense. With Burton on the way out, Ertz gets to reunite with Frank Reich and join a very talented TE group.

 

 

NFL Draft:

Trade 21 to New Orleans for 28 and 60

Trade 60 and 148 to Washington for 51

 

R1P28 - Rashod Bateman WR Minnesota

I'm not sure if Bateman falls here but he has All-Pro potential. He can play both the outside and in the slot at an effective level, is a great route runner, and is strong at the point of the catch.

Bateman joining an offense with Hilton, Pittman, Campbell, JT, Hines, Ertz, MAC, and Doyle would certainly give us an explosive boost.

 

R2P51 - Liam Eichenberg OT Notre Dame

Eichenberg could very well go in the first round but with the amount of picks in the first round that will be WR/OT, I can see him falling down into the second.

Notre Dame's track record of elite OL talent continues every year, and he's an instant plug at LT. Liam's a better at run blocker than pass blocker, and it's an area he'll have to improve in.

 

R3P84 - Paulson Adebo CB Stanford

Adebo burnt his draft stock by returning to Stanford and sitting out of the season. He was a projected late first rounder last year, and could go anywhere from the 2nd to the 4th. He's an outside corner and he's much better than Rock Ya-Sin. He's a physical guy and he's got great ball skills and can play both man/zone. He needs to improve as a run defender and can have trouble with the quicker WRs in the NFL.

 

R4P117 - Pete Werner LB Ohio State

Werner fits in our 4-3 and would take over Walker's role. He's a big hitter and an above average run defender. He can play zone at a comfortable level but gets stiff if he ever gets called to play man. It'd give us a great LB room, and make sure Okereke knows he's got competition for his job.

 

R6P180 - Shaka Toney DE Penn State

Toney is a pass rush designate, with a lean frame and a quick step. He's not ever gonna be a starter but can provide speed off the edge in a limited role.

 

R7P211 - Ryan Van Demark OT Connecticut

I'm not going to act like I know much about the late round offensive lineman, but I can't see Ballard taking a depth guy in the later rounds.

I like it for the most part, but:

1. Stafford imo is going to cost more then that.

2. AQM is going to be able to command more then 1.5 on a one year.

3. Its suprising to be that you don't want to pay Houston, AQM, and especially Autry, but you'll give Thomas 6M, whos coming off a serious injury, and has been a bust this far.

4. IMO Trading down 7 spots in the first won't net you an extra 2nd rounder.

 

[stitches]

Really like this one. I too doubt we get Stafford for anything less than a 1st, but hey... if it happens that would be great. Love every single of your first 3 picks. Paulson Adebo was a great prospect, but last year was a down year for him so if we get him in the 3d that would be great. 

[Smonroe]

2 hours ago, stitches said:

Really like this one. I too doubt we get Stafford for anything less than a 1st, but hey... if it happens that would be great. Love every single of your first 3 picks. Paulson Adebo was a great prospect, but last year was a down year for him so if we get him in the 3d that would be great. 

 

The Detroit owners really like Stafford as a person and want to do good by him.  But they're not stupid and will not make a bad business decision.  

 

It's going to take our 1st and probably at least a 3.  And maybe something next year.  

[tvturner]

8 hours ago, NorthernColt said:

I like it for the most part, but:

1. Stafford imo is going to cost more then that.

2. AQM is going to be able to command more then 1.5 on a one year.

3. Its suprising to be that you don't want to pay Houston, AQM, and especially Autry, but you'll give Thomas 6M, whos coming off a serious injury, and has been a bust this far.

4. IMO Trading down 7 spots in the first won't net you an extra 2nd rounder.

 

AQM's market is unknown, I can realistically see him making anywhere from $1.5 to $3m at max

I think Watt is better than Houston, and Thomas has a ton of untapped upside, pairing him with Buckner again would be ideal. He was also one of my favorites prospects in the 2017 draft so it's a little biased

NO would be trading up for a QB, it's why I included the 2nd

[NewColtsFan]

14 hours ago, NorthernColt said:

I like it for the most part, but:

1. Stafford imo is going to cost more then that.

2. AQM is going to be able to command more then 1.5 on a one year.

3. Its suprising to be that you don't want to pay Houston, AQM, and especially Autry, but you'll give Thomas 6M, whos coming off a serious injury, and has been a bust this far.

4. IMO Trading down 7 spots in the first won't net you an extra 2nd rounder.

 

 

Great post!    Each point is spot on.

 

Regarding point 4...

 

When we traded down two years ago,  we dropped from pick 26 to pick 46.     Pick 34 which we used on Rock was more payout from the Nelson deal.     So, we had to drop 20 picks to get a FUTURE second round pick,  not a pick the same year.

So, yes,  dropping down 7 spots does not get you a #2, unless some team is beyond desperate.

 

Other than that...

 

!.   is correct.

2.  Is correct.

3.  is spot on.   Plus it's hard to see anyone paying Solomon that much coming off that injury.   I don't think he'd get that much if he had not gotten injury.    I think he gets signed by someone for maybe $2-3 mill --- tops.

 

[#ThisRide]

My prediction at WR in free agency is that they go after Josh Reynolds. Perfect type of Ballard move. On the rise talent that another team doesn’t have room for or is considered excess at that position but is ready to take next step and entering  prime.  And doesn’t impact cap at a position Ballard doesn’t place high value cap dollars on