Drafting a QB - Risky Path

[MikeCurtis]

I see many of the draft "experts" talk about what the Colts will do in the draft.

 

The draft process on the QB position, even with all the improved scouting techniques is a highly flawed .

 

If you look at history some interesting facts come out. Drafting a QB in the first round is a high risk endeavor 

 

In the past 9 Years 20 QBs have been drafted in the first round.  I wanted to come up with some metrics to see the % that have worked out with the team that they drafted them

 

I am "measuring" the results with the simple question,

 

Would the NFL team make the same draft decision, at their position in that years draft, in hindsight - Its a YES/NO decision

 

For the ones that are still TBD (last few years) I counted these as YES. The selection of Goff as a "NO" is not that he is a horrible QB, but a simple question.... If you could do the pick again would you take Goff at number 1 overall.....  my guess is the Rams would have gone another way

 

2012 Draft Round 1

1st Andrew Luck - YES

2nd Robert Griffin - NO

8th Ryan Tannehil - NO

22nd Brandon Wheedon - NO

 

2013 Draft Round 1

16th EJ Manuel - NO

 

2014 Draft Round 1

3rd Pick Blake Bortles - NO

22nd Johnny Manziel - NO

 

2015 Draft Round 1

1st - Jameis Winston - NO

2nd Marcus Marriota  - NO

 

2016 Draft Round 1

1st Jared Goff - NO

2nd Carson Wentz - YES

22nd Paxton Lynch - NO

 

2017 Draft Round 1

2nd Mitch Trubiski - NO

10th Pat Mahomes - YES

12th Deshaun Watsun - YES

 

2018 Draft Round 1

1st Baker Mayfield - YES

3rd Sam Darnold - NO

7th Josh Allen - YES

10th Josh Rosen - NO

32nd Lamar Jackson - YES

 

With this data, drafting a QB in the first round is a 30% hit rate

 

The folks that want to give up 2 or 3 first round picks to move up to get Fields or Wilson may want to think deeper on this

 

From my perspective, and looking at the analytics it would appear that drafting the best BPA OL, DL , CB, or even WR,  available at 21 is the safest approach

 

And going with an extremely low risk/ low cost FA (Winston) or if the deal is decent, offering a trade to get Matthew Stafford. (Stafford route is my first choice), but I wouldnt want to  get fleeced in the trade.

 

If the right LT isnt there at 21, there are a few FA OTs that we could pick up

 

 

 

Let me know your thoughts...........

 

 

 

[John Hammonds]

Ballard preaches it.  I've advocated it for years.  Just because you need a quarterback doesn't necessarily means that you just go out and draft a quarterback.  He's the next best guy.  He's available at our next pick.  So take him.  Right?  NO!  You gotta do your research.  And if you love every single thing about him, you move mountains to take him.  If he's just the next guy, and you need a quarterback, don't take him based on those reasons alone.

 

I can't help but add commentary to each of the QB picks in your list.  Data analysis is what I do for a living, so, it's just in my nature.

 

2012 Round 1

1st Andrew Luck YES - The highest graded QB coming out of college since Peyton.  And played like it too.  Until injuries sustained from both a bad OL and being Superman caught up with him.

2nd Robert Griffin III NO - Incredibly talented.  More so than Luck.  What they didn't tell us was that he was made of delicate crystal.  Shatter on impact.  Any impact.  Any.

8th Ryan Tannehill NO - He didn't strike me as worth drafting this high.  But you know how it is.  Miami needed a quarterback.  Glad he found success with the Titans eventually.

22 Brandon Weedon NO - What can I say?  It's the Browns.  The guy was 28 years old.  That's when you are in your NFL prime.  And he wasn't already better than the other QB's coming out?  And his career would last all of 15 minutes due to his age alone?  Why???  Oh yeah, I forgot.  It's the Browns.  And the Browns needed a quarterback.

 

2013 Round 1

16th E J Manuel NO - The 2013 draft was pretty bad, top to bottom.  Manuel was the best of a very poor quarterback group.  Hey, guess what?  The Bills needed a quarterback.  Guess what they did?

 

2014 Round 1

3rd Blake Bortles NO - Let's see.  This guy is tall, big, and plays at a small school.  That automatically makes him Ben Roethlisberger, right?  The Jags certainly though so.  In case you didn't know, no, it doesn't.

22 Johnny Manziel NO - It's the Browns again.  This guy's off-field issues screamed stay away.  Many teams didn't even have him on their boards.  But, he was exciting.  And the Browns needed a quarterback.  Yeah, whatever.

 

2015 Round 1

1st Jameis Winston NO - He was very talented.  And he was from a nearby school.  Why wouldn't the Bucs take him?  And for a while, it seemed like a good pick.  But he never could get out of trying to do too much, and throwing as many INT's as TD's.

2nd Marcus Mariota NO - I liked him.  I really did.  Calm poise, decent arm, good school program.  What they tried to tell us (and I didn't listen) was that his calm was so calm that he really wasn't much of a leader.  Or a producer, it turns out.

 

2016 Round 1

1st Jared Goff NO - I felt this entire QB draft was an attempt to put as much hype into the players as they could.  I wasn't a fan of any of them.  At least Goff came from a big school program, right?

2nd Carson Wentz YES - I was not high on him.  North Dakota State?  What was his competition level?  Who did he ever play?  I'm glad he found the success he did in the NFL.  But I definitely thought Philly pulled a blunder.

22nd Paxton Lynch NO - Ok, I kinda liked the guy.  But I usually like players with more pluck than talent.  After Peyton left, the Broncos definitely needed a quarterback, and thought this seat-of-your-pants player could develop into something.  He didn't.

 

2017 Round 1

2nd Mitch Trubisky NO - The red flags were there to see.  He'd only played 13 games.  At North Carolina, no less.  What are you doing trading up into the 2nd pick to get him?  Oh yeah.  The Bears needed a quarterback.  This is the kind of move that gets a GM fired.

10th Patrick Mahomes YES - I wasn't high on him.  We'd already seen joystick QB's come and go.  They'd have great success in college, but just couldn't translate to the NFL.  Boy, was I wrong!  Good for the Chiefs for seeing what I could not.  And picking a QB when they already had one.

12th Deshawn Watson YES - He was my favorite in this class.  I don't care what deficiencies he may have.  He played the best team in the nation, twice, beating them once, and seriously performing well the other time.  Yes, yes, a thousand times yes.

 

2018 Round 1

1st Baker Mayfield YES - I was against this pick.  It's the Browns again.  Picking a guy that looks better on TV than he does on the field.  I'm glad for the Browns that this guy worked out.  I still don't think he's worth a #1 overall.  But it worked.  Good for them.

3rd Sam Darnold NO - It's hard to say whether Darnold's performance is due to playing for the Jets, playing for Adam Gase, or both.  I sure would like to say that it's not simply because he's a bust.  I thought he was the best of the group.  I hope the USC Golden Boy gets out of NY and gets a better shot.

7th Josh Allen YES - Ok, I'll admit it.  I thought this baby faced QB wasn't as talented as he turned out to be.  He was my choice for bust in this group.  Didn't turn out that way.  Good for him.

10th Josh Rosen NO - He was the true bust.  But he didn't project that way.  He was smart.  And talented.  Was he truly that bad in Phoenix?  Or did they just not give him a chance, and went after the shiny new thing the following year?  His inability to win the starting job in Miami kinda says it all.  No, he's a bust.

32nd Lamar Jackson YES - Seriously.  A hyped up joystick QB from Louisville of all places, looking like the second coming of Michael Vick, without Vick's rocket arm.  I didn't believe.  And yet, it's working for Baltimore.  At least enough to let go of Joe Flacco.  Please note - in this year's playoffs, the two joystick QB's both sustained injuries due to their play style.

 

[richard pallo]

Great analysis I do say.  Out of all of the QB's you assigned a NO to the only ones I would be interested in for the Colts would be Tannehill and Darnold.  No chance on Tannehill of course.  The second team was the charm for him.  Darnold YES.  I believe he is truly a victim of his circumstances.  Bad coaching and a bad team.  Even with that albatross he as shown some flashes.  That's why I would like him to be our QB if we don't get Stafford.  Our team is trying to win a SB now.  That was evident with the Rivers and Buckner acquisitions.  We drafted our project QB last year with Eason.  All reports point to giving that choice at least one more year.  So this talk of moving up to draft another rookie QB doesn't make sense to me given our current roster.  To me that signals rebuild and I don't think we are in rebuild mode.  If we did that you can pretty much forget about us attracting any FA's that are looking for a SB contending team.  The Robinson and Godwins of the world to name a few.  Their 1st choice will be to a team with a proven QB that is close to a SB.  That's why using our draft capital to acquire a veteran makes the most sense with our current roster.  And that's what I think Ballard is going to do.  GM's and coaches are judged on their won lost records and playoff appearances.  So far so good for Ballard and Reich.  Risking a step back and another lost year with a rookie QB doesn't sound like an approach I can see them making.  I see them as low risk high reward type of guys.  We shall see.  But I am expecting a new veteran QB to lead our team at the start of FA. 

[RNGDShobby]

If CB wants to trade up for a QB, he's likely going to need to go to 8 or higher. JAX (1), NYJ (2), ATL (4), DET (7) and CAR (8) all either ARE in the market, or COULD be in the market for a QB. 
According to Draftek Pick Value Chart, we barely have the capital in this draft to get up to 8. 
I generally put the following years picks a round back on this years value (i.e. 1st overall pick  in 2022 equal to 1st pick 2nd round this year) so if we add our 2021 1st and 2022 1st (likely reasonably early ~8th) and 2021 3rd, we might just be able to do it.
I do see a world where those teams mentioned (other than JAX) go in different directions...
JAX - Lawrence 
NYJ - Sewell
ATL - Paye
DET - Parsons 
CAR - Surtain 

Which drops Fields to SF, Wilson to WAS and Lance to CHI. 

Of course, this is highly unlikely because there aren't 32 Chris Ballard's as GM's and the rest of them will all reach like zombies.

If anything, it's going to be a fun off-season. I hope we get a LT in FA and leave the QB to the draft. But like CB says... get the RIGHT one.

Thanks for putting up with my ramblings 

[crazycolt1]

Personally I think the future QB is already on the roster in Eason.

To be honest we don't have a clue on his abilities in the NFL. He has all the physical tools.

In this offense he wouldn't have to be superman to be successful. 

I am pretty sure Ballard will pull some surprises out of his little black book. He seems to do that every season so far. 

[MikeCurtis]

27 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Personally I think the future QB is already on the roster in Eason.

To be honest we don't have a clue on his abilities in the NFL. He has all the physical tools.

In this offense he wouldn't have to be superman to be successful. 

I am pretty sure Ballard will pull some surprises out of his little black book. He seems to do that every season so far. 

Hey man..

 

I hope that you are right

 

If he would have had a camp this past year, Eason MIGHT have been ready

 

My hope is he has someone to compete against or if we bring in a FA that can Play for 3-5 years, he can hold a clipboard and be the next starting QB

 

 

[MikeCurtis]

1 hour ago, RNGDShobby said:

If anything, it's going to be a fun off-season. I hope we get a LT in FA and leave the QB to the draft. But like CB says... get the RIGHT one.

Thanks for putting up with my ramblings 

Unless of Fields  slips to 15 ish (I doubt it) I dont think we are going QB  in round 1 this year.... we are WAY TOO FAR back to trade up

Also

Lance had ONE year of college ball against 2nd level teams..... He isnt starting on a win now ready team at leaset for 1-2 years

[stitches]

It IS risky. But the alternative is very likely worse. Also, keep in mind that in a lot of cases the teams that draft high are teams with weak management or coaching or both or bad structure to support a young QB. IMO we have very good roster base and good management to support a QB. A young QB will rarely have better team to get inserted in than us. Usually 11 win teams don't need QBs. 

 

BTW, you can do the exact same exercise with every single other position in the 1st round and you will get very similar results. So the reality is... drafting any position is risky. but drafting QB has the highest potential return on investment BY A HUGE margin. 

[MikeCurtis]

6 minutes ago, stitches said:

It IS risky. But the alternative is very likely worse. Also, keep in mind that in a lot of cases the teams that draft high are teams with weak management or coaching or both or bad structure to support a young QB. IMO we have very good roster base and good management to support a QB. A young QB will rarely have better team to get inserted in than us. Usually 11 win teams don't need QBs. 

I think that we might see some players like Trask and Mac Jones slide to the second round.... either could be an option for the Colts.    But..... I think they would not be a good pick in round 1    

[stitches]

14 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

I think that we might see some players like Trask and Mac Jones slide to the second round.... either could be an option for the Colts.    But..... I think they would not be a good pick in round 1    

Kind of agree on Jones and Trask, I wouldn't draft them in R1. But if Ballard drafts one of them, I won't throw a fit over it and will be willing to let it play out and see how it goes. 

[RNGDShobby]

12 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

I think that we might see some players like Trask and Mac Jones slide to the second round.... either could be an option for the Colts.    But..... I think they would not be a good pick in round 1    

Trask definitely I think. Jones possibly. Other QB needy teams further down like WFT and CHI could grab him.

[RNGDShobby]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

Kind of agree on Jones and Trask, I wouldn't draft them in R1. But if Ballard drafts one of them, I won't throw a fit over it and will be willing to let it play out and see how it goes. 

We're lucky in that we have learnt to trust Ballard. He's been unlucky with retirements. If he grabs Jones at 21 I won't be mad, I'm higher on him than most. Trask not so much. Really looking forward to the first 2 weeks of March which is when he normally makes his trade moves.

[MikeCurtis]

7 minutes ago, RNGDShobby said:

We're lucky in that we have learnt to trust Ballard. He's been unlucky with retirements. If he grabs Jones at 21 I won't be mad, I'm higher on him than most. Trask not so much. Really looking forward to the first 2 weeks of March which is when he normally makes his trade moves.

I guess I dont see that Jones or Trask are significantly better than Eason.

 

All 3 need time to develop, though its said that Jones is closer to play

 

Do we start the year with Eason and Jones (or Trask)?

 

We would be throwing away this year

 

Id really like a vet 

 

But your point is sound.... I think Ballard will scout as much as possible to lower his chance at failure.

 

 

[coltsfanmurf]

8 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

I see many of the draft "experts" talk about what the Colts will do in the draft.

 

The draft process on the QB position, even with all the improved scouting techniques is a highly flawed .

 

If you look at history some interesting facts come out. Drafting a QB in the first round is a high risk endeavor 

 

In the past 9 Years 20 QBs have been drafted in the first round.  I wanted to come up with some metrics to see the % that have worked out with the team that they drafted them

 

I am "measuring" the results with the simple question,

 

Would the NFL team make the same draft decision, at their position in that years draft, in hindsight - Its a YES/NO decision

 

For the ones that are still TBD (last few years) I counted these as YES. The selection of Goff as a "NO" is not that he is a horrible QB, but a simple question.... If you could do the pick again would you take Goff at number 1 overall.....  my guess is the Rams would have gone another way

 

2012 Draft Round 1

1st Andrew Luck - YES

2nd Robert Griffin - NO

8th Ryan Tannehil - NO

22nd Brandon Wheedon - NO

 

2013 Draft Round 1

16th EJ Manuel - NO

 

2014 Draft Round 1

3rd Pick Blake Bortles - NO

22nd Johnny Manziel - NO

 

2015 Draft Round 1

1st - Jameis Winston - NO

2nd Marcus Marriota  - NO

 

2016 Draft Round 1

1st Jared Goff - NO

2nd Carson Wentz - YES

22nd Paxton Lynch - NO

 

2017 Draft Round 1

2nd Mitch Trubiski - NO

10th Pat Mahomes - YES

12th Deshaun Watsun - YES

 

2018 Draft Round 1

1st Baker Mayfield - YES

3rd Sam Darnold - NO

7th Josh Allen - YES

10th Josh Rosen - NO

32nd Lamar Jackson - YES

 

With this data, drafting a QB in the first round is a 30% hit rate

 

The folks that want to give up 2 or 3 first round picks to move up to get Fields or Wilson may want to think deeper on this

 

From my perspective, and looking at the analytics it would appear that drafting the best BPA OL, DL , CB, or even WR,  available at 21 is the safest approach

 

And going with an extremely low risk/ low cost FA (Winston) or if the deal is decent, offering a trade to get Matthew Stafford. (Stafford route is my first choice), but I wouldnt want to  get fleeced in the trade.

 

If the right LT isnt there at 21, there are a few FA OTs that we could pick up

 

 

 

Let me know your thoughts...........

 

 

 

 

 

Isn't 7 out of 20 35% and not 30%?  I get what you're saying though and I completely agree.  Sorry, just my OCD at work...plus I am a numbers guy as well.  Great post though!! 

[OhioColt]

Figured the Colts would wait and go after QB Kellen Mond in Rd 3-4.  Seems most everyone wants to swap Brissett for another mediocre QB and draft another one to boot.  Look around the league it is full of average QBs.  We’ve all been spoiled by greatness and seeing the end of careers of the greats like Rivers, Brees, Rodgers and Brady.

[Smoke317]

Trade up for Fields & we’re contending with the Chiefs & Bills for AFC supremacy the next decade and a half. 

[richard pallo]

4 minutes ago, Smoke317 said:

Trade up for Fields & we’re contending with the Chiefs & Bills for AFC supremacy the next decade and a half. 

Smoke, what are you smoking?  lol

[Smoke317]

28 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Smoke, what are you smoking?  lol

Nothing at the moment. But why wouldn’t the Colts, a team with an NFL leading 6 All Pros, not be contenders with a young stud dual threat QB like Fields?  Didn’t take Mahomes or Watson long to have impact.  It won’t take Fields long either.  I’ve been watching video of Lawrence. He has serious bust potential. He’s good but nowhere near the can’t miss prospect they make him out to be.  Let the Jags take him. If we’re smart, we move up and get Fields and let them continue their rivalry.  And just like in high school and college, Fields will outplay Lawrence when it matters most and the Colts will be the benefactors. 

[Dingus McGirt]

8 minutes ago, Smoke317 said:

Nothing at the moment. But why wouldn’t the Colts, a team with an NFL leading 6 All Pros, not be contenders with a young stud dual threat QB like Fields?  Didn’t take Mahomes or Watson long to have impact.  It won’t take Fields long either.  I’ve been watching video of Lawrence. He has serious bust potential. He’s good but nowhere near the can’t miss prospect they make him out to be.  Let the Jags take him. If we’re smart, we move up and get Fields and let them continue their rivalry.  And just like in high school and college, Fields will outplay Lawrence when it matters most and the Colts will be the benefactors. 

Not so sure, sir.  This isn't college.

48 minutes ago, Smoke317 said:

Trade up for Fields & we’re contending with the Chiefs & Bills for AFC supremacy the next decade and a half. 

This.  Because our luck with OSU players is awesome.

[Dingus McGirt]

I hope Ballard and Reich's well-documented man-love of Brissett doesn't wreck the Colts for several more years.

 

[Smoke317]

24 minutes ago, Dingus McGirt said:

Not so sure, sir.  This isn't college.

This.  Because our luck with OSU players is awesome.

It’s a new “Day” at Ohio State.  Fields is better than all of their previous prospects. Leaps and bounds better IMO.  Fields & Ryan Day start a new era for OSU QB’s & players.  I just see Fields being the star QB of this draft class.  Wilson a sleeper for next best if his shoulder and body can hold up to NFL hits. 

[shasta519]

I mean...you could create a narrative like this at any position. We know that Ballard isn’t going to just trade up for a QB just to do it...like some of those teams have. It’s going to be his guy. So we just have to trust the process...and not the percentages. 
 

Besides, I am more interested in recent history...where the hit % is much higher. NFL offenses now employ many of the same concepts as college offenses...and therefore the transition will be easier. 
 

The alternative is to pick up a vet and hope to have an elite defense...which isn’t a likely scenario. I think it’s much more likely to draft a QB who can lead a top 5 offense than build a balanced team that is good enough to win a SB without a top 5 offense.

 

 

[Moosejawcolt]

On 1/23/2021 at 2:29 PM, crazycolt1 said:

Personally I think the future QB is already on the roster in Eason.

To be honest we don't have a clue on his abilities in the NFL. He has all the physical tools.

In this offense he wouldn't have to be superman to be successful. 

I am pretty sure Ballard will pull some surprises out of his little black book. He seems to do that every season so far. 

I agree the more I think bout it. I think Detroit is going to want at least a 1st for a guy they dont want. Even though the Colts went 11 and 5, they have holes to fill

[OhioColt]

9 hours ago, Smoke317 said:

It’s a new “Day” at Ohio State.  Fields is better than all of their previous prospects. Leaps and bounds better IMO.  Fields & Ryan Day start a new era for OSU QB’s & players.  I just see Fields being the star QB of this draft class.  Wilson a sleeper for next best if his shoulder and body can hold up to NFL hits. 

Fields will be another washed up clipboard carrying QB within 3-5 years.  He just isn’t pro level.

[crazycolt1]

On 1/23/2021 at 4:41 PM, MikeCurtis said:

I think that we might see some players like Trask and Mac Jones slide to the second round.... either could be an option for the Colts.    But..... I think they would not be a good pick in round 1    

If they are not good enough to be a 1st rounder why would they even be picked by Ballard?

We need a future franchise QB,

Does either one shown they have that ability?

Do I know?  No. 

 

[Smoke317]

8 minutes ago, OhioColt said:

Fields will be another washed up clipboard carrying QB within 3-5 years.  He just isn’t pro level.

What about him isn’t pro level?  Bigger arm and more accurate than Lawrence.  I pray that he drops any and we go up and get him.  We’ll be competing with the Chiefs for AFC Supremacy within 2 years (and I’m not ruling out next year).

[OhioColt]

Just now, Smoke317 said:

What about him isn’t pro level?  Bigger arm and more accurate than Lawrence.  I pray that he drops any and we go up and get him.  We’ll be competing with the Chiefs for AFC Supremacy within 2 years (and I’m not ruling out next year).

Living in Ohio and the general concerns regarding Fields pretty much same thing.  He just doesn’t have it to make it in the NFL as a QB.

[Smoke317]

1 minute ago, OhioColt said:

Living in Ohio and the general concerns regarding Fields pretty much same thing.  He just doesn’t have it to make it in the NFL as a QB.

General concerns but you can’t mention anything specific...  Funny that’s the kind of criticism Fields has been receiving since outshining Lawrence (again).  Seems agenda driven.  From what I’ve seen from watching most of his throws and games is that he can make every NFL throw.  Every.  Elite level accuracy to all levels of the field.  Add in his mobility and toughness and I don’t see what the kid is missing. People say he holds the ball too long (I’ve noticed the same from watching Lawrence & Wilson when no one is open).  All the young QB’s can get better at that. 
 

I see Fields as a better passing Deshaun Watson.  Reich would have Fields, Taylor, Hines, Pittman, Campbell & TY lighting the league up next year.  And I did say TY.  Fields has the arm strength to get TY back to being an effective deep threat.  Fields deep strikes to Olave look like Luck & TY.  Wouldn’t take long for those 2 to develop deep chemistry.  
 

I think Fields has a bright NFL future ahead of him.  If he’s gone early, like he should be, I’d settle for Zach Wilson or Trey Lance in that order. Hard pass on Mac Jones & Trask.  We might as well give Eason a shot before we settle for either of those two or a proven bum like Darnold.

[Stoney]

On 1/23/2021 at 10:02 AM, MikeCurtis said:

I see many of the draft "experts" talk about what the Colts will do in the draft.

 

The draft process on the QB position, even with all the improved scouting techniques is a highly flawed .

 

If you look at history some interesting facts come out. Drafting a QB in the first round is a high risk endeavor 

 

In the past 9 Years 20 QBs have been drafted in the first round.  I wanted to come up with some metrics to see the % that have worked out with the team that they drafted them

 

I am "measuring" the results with the simple question,

 

Would the NFL team make the same draft decision, at their position in that years draft, in hindsight - Its a YES/NO decision

 

For the ones that are still TBD (last few years) I counted these as YES. The selection of Goff as a "NO" is not that he is a horrible QB, but a simple question.... If you could do the pick again would you take Goff at number 1 overall.....  my guess is the Rams would have gone another way

 

2012 Draft Round 1

1st Andrew Luck - YES

2nd Robert Griffin - NO

8th Ryan Tannehil - NO

22nd Brandon Wheedon - NO

 

2013 Draft Round 1

16th EJ Manuel - NO

 

2014 Draft Round 1

3rd Pick Blake Bortles - NO

22nd Johnny Manziel - NO

 

2015 Draft Round 1

1st - Jameis Winston - NO

2nd Marcus Marriota  - NO

 

2016 Draft Round 1

1st Jared Goff - NO

2nd Carson Wentz - YES

22nd Paxton Lynch - NO

 

2017 Draft Round 1

2nd Mitch Trubiski - NO

10th Pat Mahomes - YES

12th Deshaun Watsun - YES

 

2018 Draft Round 1

1st Baker Mayfield - YES

3rd Sam Darnold - NO

7th Josh Allen - YES

10th Josh Rosen - NO

32nd Lamar Jackson - YES

 

With this data, drafting a QB in the first round is a 30% hit rate

 

The folks that want to give up 2 or 3 first round picks to move up to get Fields or Wilson may want to think deeper on this

 

From my perspective, and looking at the analytics it would appear that drafting the best BPA OL, DL , CB, or even WR,  available at 21 is the safest approach

 

And going with an extremely low risk/ low cost FA (Winston) or if the deal is decent, offering a trade to get Matthew Stafford. (Stafford route is my first choice), but I wouldnt want to  get fleeced in the trade.

 

If the right LT isnt there at 21, there are a few FA OTs that we could pick up

 

 

 

Let me know your thoughts...........

 

 

 

Scared money dont make money. Most the guys on here that are a yes, I predicted would be a yes. Besides RG3 & Winston.. and RG3 only because injuries..otherwise he was legit. Wilson & Lance I'm predicting to both be a yes.. they just have "it" Fields I'm predicting to be a no. Really when you look at this list.. I think most people would be able to predict it. I was shocked when the Bears took biscuit over Watson. I was shocked when Lamar wasnt taken until 32. I thought Rosen at 10 was a joke. I thought Allen shouldve went before Darnold. I thought Wentz was miles better than Goff. Tannehill was a WR turned QB. I knew he would struggle.

 

Really if u do your homework it's not that hard to know.. I still think Jordan Love will be legit. GMs just get caught up on combine numbers.

[crazycolt1]

On 1/24/2021 at 11:48 AM, Dingus McGirt said:

I hope Ballard and Reich's well-documented man-love of Brissett doesn't wreck the Colts for several more years.

 

Just how did Brissett wreck the Colts this year? 

He done exactly what was ask of him. 

Your over reaction is noted. 

[Dingus McGirt]

1 minute ago, crazycolt1 said:

Just how did Brissett wreck the Colts this year? 

He don't exactly what was ask of him. 

Your over reaction is noted. 

 

1 minute ago, crazycolt1 said:

Just how did Brissett wreck the Colts this year? 

He don't exactly what was ask of him. 

Your over reaction is noted. 

As is your snarky comment, sir.

[crazycolt1]

3 minutes ago, Dingus McGirt said:

 

As is your snarky comment, sir.

What about my snarky comment was wrong? 

You say Brissett wrecked the Colts so lets hear your reasons. 

Like I said, Brissett done what was ask of him and he did it well. 

He was a team leader. 

He is off the books now as far as having starters pay so can't complain about that.

He is not under contract so can't complain about that either. 

I guess if he is signed under a back up contract you could complain about that I suppose. 

[Dingus McGirt]

2 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

What about my snarky comment was wrong? 

You say Brissett wrecked the Colts so lets hear your reasons. 

Like I said, Brissett done what was ask of him and he did it well. 

He was a team leader. 

He is off the books now as far as having starters pay so can't complain about that.

He is not under contract so can't complain about that either. 

I guess if he is signed under a back up contract you could complain about that I suppose. 

You are correct sir.  My mistake was saying 'several "more" years.

[danlhart87]

The rewards of drafting a QB high far outweigh the risks

[Four2itus]

On 1/23/2021 at 1:22 PM, stitches said:

BTW, you can do the exact same exercise with every single other position in the 1st round and you will get very similar results.

Not necessarily so. Here is an article done in 2015 spanning 25 years. 

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

[crazycolt1]

52 minutes ago, Dingus McGirt said:

You are correct sir.  My mistake was saying 'several "more" years.

I was more just being a tad bit sarcastic than making an issue.

Personally, I highly doubt he will be resigned. 

With that said, no one really knows what scenarios could go down as far as he is concerned. 

 

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

On 1/23/2021 at 10:02 AM, MikeCurtis said:

I see many of the draft "experts" talk about what the Colts will do in the draft.

 

The draft process on the QB position, even with all the improved scouting techniques is a highly flawed .

 

If you look at history some interesting facts come out. Drafting a QB in the first round is a high risk endeavor 

 

In the past 9 Years 20 QBs have been drafted in the first round.  I wanted to come up with some metrics to see the % that have worked out with the team that they drafted them

 

I am "measuring" the results with the simple question,

 

Would the NFL team make the same draft decision, at their position in that years draft, in hindsight - Its a YES/NO decision

 

For the ones that are still TBD (last few years) I counted these as YES. The selection of Goff as a "NO" is not that he is a horrible QB, but a simple question.... If you could do the pick again would you take Goff at number 1 overall.....  my guess is the Rams would have gone another way

 

2012 Draft Round 1

1st Andrew Luck - YES

2nd Robert Griffin - NO

8th Ryan Tannehil - NO

22nd Brandon Wheedon - NO

 

2013 Draft Round 1

16th EJ Manuel - NO

 

2014 Draft Round 1

3rd Pick Blake Bortles - NO

22nd Johnny Manziel - NO

 

2015 Draft Round 1

1st - Jameis Winston - NO

2nd Marcus Marriota  - NO

 

2016 Draft Round 1

1st Jared Goff - NO

2nd Carson Wentz - YES

22nd Paxton Lynch - NO

 

2017 Draft Round 1

2nd Mitch Trubiski - NO

10th Pat Mahomes - YES

12th Deshaun Watsun - YES

 

2018 Draft Round 1

1st Baker Mayfield - YES

3rd Sam Darnold - NO

7th Josh Allen - YES

10th Josh Rosen - NO

32nd Lamar Jackson - YES

 

With this data, drafting a QB in the first round is a 30% hit rate

 

The folks that want to give up 2 or 3 first round picks to move up to get Fields or Wilson may want to think deeper on this

 

From my perspective, and looking at the analytics it would appear that drafting the best BPA OL, DL , CB, or even WR,  available at 21 is the safest approach

 

And going with an extremely low risk/ low cost FA (Winston) or if the deal is decent, offering a trade to get Matthew Stafford. (Stafford route is my first choice), but I wouldnt want to  get fleeced in the trade.

 

If the right LT isnt there at 21, there are a few FA OTs that we could pick up

 

 

 

Let me know your thoughts...........

 

 

 

i agrre dont draft a qb in the first