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What to learn from - Commonalities in the Bills 3 losses


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4 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

Any commonality on TO's?

in the game summaries, and passing specific in the stats area.

 

in short, 5 INTs over the 3 games for Allen, but overall not a huge delta vs the opponents.

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23 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

in the game summaries, and passing specific in the stats area.

 

in short, 5 INTs over the 3 games for Allen, but overall not a huge delta vs the opponents.

Need to be balanced,  force a couple turn overs and not turnover the ball

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41 minutes ago, zibby43 said:

Tangentially related:

 

Colts are 10-2 this year when forcing at least 1 turnover.

 

I think that will be a key to this game. 

That's what I have been thinking and sayin...........

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42 minutes ago, zibby43 said:

Tangentially related:

I grew up in the Willamette Valley of Oregon. There is a small town of "Tangent" where.....I kid you not......there is a sign post outside of town where there is an intersection between Tangent Lane, and Tangent Loop. I looked out my car window one day and stared at the sign post with the names juxtaposed. I think it was a self-actualizing moment. 

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2 hours ago, Four2itus said:

I grew up in the Willamette Valley of Oregon. There is a small town of "Tangent" where.....I kid you not......there is a sign post outside of town where there is an intersection between Tangent Lane, and Tangent Loop. I looked out my car window one day and stared at the sign post with the names juxtaposed. I think it was a self-actualizing moment. 

I am in Pa and we have towns named both “Intercourse” and “Blue Ball.”

 

I would assume growing up a young man in one is FAR more fun than the other, tho i can’t speak from experience as they are both about 2 hours away.

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3 hours ago, WoolMagnet said:

I am in Pa and we have towns named both “Intercourse” and “Blue Ball.”

 

I would assume growing up a young man in one is FAR more fun than the other, tho i can’t speak from experience as they are both about 2 hours away.


How far from Intercourse is Paradise?  (Do you have to pass Bird-in-Hand, PA?)

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1 hour ago, Smonroe said:


How far from Intercourse is Paradise?  (Do you have to pass Bird-in-Hand, PA?)

Yup.  They’re all in the same “neck of the woods.”  

Lancaster area.  Amish country.

 

on a side note ... i was getting a real kick out of listening to the electoral college confirmations the other night.  It literally had me laughing out loud.  Some of the names of the representatives...... hilarious.

I swear there was a Cameltoe in there.

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10 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Mr Obvious TLDR
1. Balance, and don't be stubborn - Run well if they focus on Rivers. Pass well if they focus on JT.
2. Keep Allen under 300


In short, on D, keeping Allen to under 300 was key to all 3 games. On O, each opponent exploited what Buffalo's D keyed on, and had pretty good balance. Vs TN, the Bills severely limited Henry, but Tannehill made them pay. Vs KC, they limited Mahomes to one of his lowest yardage games, but Edwards made them pay. Vs AZ, they made it difficult for Murray, but Drake had one of his best games. 

 

Common to all games
-Allen under 285 passing
-Allen under 45 rushing
-Buffalo RBs under 80
-Opponent total O 330+
-Opponent passing O 195+
-Opponent RB rushing O 95+
-Opponent total rushing O 139+

 

Game notes
Bills 16 at Titans 42 - Bills keyed on, and limited Henry to 57 yards. Henry still had 2 TDs. Selling out on Henry led to Tannehill being highly efficient with 195 yards and 3 TDs. TN limited Allen to 263 yards and 2 TDs, while INTing him twice. Buffalo won the time of possession battle 32:24/27:36, and Buffalo had 3 TOs. 

 

KC 26 at Bills 17 - Bills keyed in on, and limited Mahomes to only 225 yards. Mahomes was still efficient with 2 TDs and zero INTs. Edwards got off running for 161 yards. KC limited Allen to only 122 passing yards, and only 42 RB rushing yards. Both Diggs and Beasley were limited to sub 50 yards. KC won the time of possession battle 37:45/22:15, and TOs were even at one.

 

Bills 30 at AZ 32 - Bills keyed in on, and attempted to limit Murray. They did a decent job, but Drake had one of his best games rushing. Murray also rushed for 2 TDs, throwing for only 1. While Allen had 284 yards passing, he was INT'd twice, and the RBs only 53 yards. Time of possession was pretty even, and TOs were even at 2.


Allen Passing (yards/TDs/INTs/sacks)
@TN    263/2/2/1
KC        122/2/1/0
@AZ    284/2/2/0

 

Buff RBs Rushing
@TN    77
KC        42
@AZ    35

 

Allen Rushing
@TN    18
KC        42*
@AZ    38*

 

Diggs
@TN    106
KC        46
@AZ    93

 

Beasley
@TN    53
KC        45
@AZ    109

 

Total O Buf D allowed (yards/TDs)
@TN   334/6
KC       466/3
@AZ   462/3

 

Passing O Buf D allowed
@TN   195/3
KC       221/2
@AZ    236/1

 

Rushing O Buf D allowed (total rushing yards/RB yards/TDs)
@TN    139/97/3
KC        245/209/1
@AZ    217/156/2

 


 

Unfortunately, I think containing QBs is our biggest weakness.  

 

I think they should pretty much give up the run, and see if that can beat them with it..  Maybe even play a nickel package as the base defense, zone up and be aggessive in tackling the receiver in front.

 

 

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This could be a place for Blackmon to shine.  From what I'm reading the Bills tend to focus on short and intermediate passing.  

I think Blackmon has been nothing special for several games now, even a lability, but this might be the kind of team that can maximize his skillset.

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6 hours ago, WoolMagnet said:

I am in Pa and we have towns named both “Intercourse” and “Blue Ball.”

 

I would assume growing up a young man in one is FAR more fun than the other, tho i can’t speak from experience as they are both about 2 hours away.

In NC ... towns of “Erect” and “Climax.”

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If there's one thing this Offensive coaching staff has done, it's creating a balanced team. If they sell out to stop the run, Rivers will feast. If they sell out against the pass, the rookie will run all over them.

As long as Frank Reich doesn't overthink things, I don't see why the Colts can't move the ball against that defense.

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@EastStreet - the NFL has been a "what have you done for me lately" league. The last 6 games, that OL of the Bills has been a wall of a defense for Josh Allen and they have gotten key defensive players back in their line up after the Hopkins Hail Mary game before their bye week. I don't think they have lost a game since then. They have given up 18-19 points per game on defense since their bye week and their scheme has been pretty stingy vs the pass.

 

Ultimately, we have to play to our strengths of the run setting up the pass and not overdo anything and end up going out of character. In the playoffs, games are not lost before they are won, like Dungy used to say. Play disciplined football, don't turn it over by attempting risky throws, and play complementary football to keep the D's legs fresh and the D and ST doing their part with gaining field position. As long as we don't have huge lulls on offense or defense and play for 60 minutes, we will have a chance.

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1 hour ago, Dingus McGirt said:

In NC ... towns of “Erect” and “Climax.”

 

7 hours ago, WoolMagnet said:

I am in Pa and we have towns named both “Intercourse” and “Blue Ball.”

 

I would assume growing up a young man in one is FAR more fun than the other, tho i can’t speak from experience as they are both about 2 hours away.

Man, pioneers must have been all loved out by the time they got to Oregon. 5 miles from me is the town of Boring....not kidding.

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2 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

 

Man, pioneers must have been all loved out by the time they got to Oregon. 5 miles from me is the town of Boring....not kidding.

Boring, Oregon  That's something.  I'm from Boring.  Are you going to Boring today?  Have you ever been to Boring?

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5 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Boring, Oregon  That's something.  I'm from Boring.  Are you going to Boring today?  Have you ever been to Boring?

 

It is so boring that I am going to just spend my time boring in Boring. Oh well!!! :) 

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2 hours ago, Nickster said:

Unfortunately, I think containing QBs is our biggest weakness.  

 

I think they should pretty much give up the run, and see if that can beat them with it..  Maybe even play a nickel package as the base defense, zone up and be aggessive in tackling the receiver in front.

Nickel is really already our base. I don't think we're as high % as Buffalo, but we're very close. Haven't looked at the numbers this year, but last year we were 60+%.

 

We're not bad at containing QBs. LJ did have about 50 yards against us, but he was only 4.5 AVG. Our biggest weakness IMO is easily our soft zone. 

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41 minutes ago, chad72 said:

@EastStreet - the NFL has been a "what have you done for me lately" league. The last 6 games, that OL of the Bills has been a wall of a defense for Josh Allen and they have gotten key defensive players back in their line up after the Hopkins Hail Mary game before their bye week. I don't think they have lost a game since then. They have given up 18-19 points per game on defense since their bye week and their scheme has been pretty stingy vs the pass.

 

Ultimately, we have to play to our strengths of the run setting up the pass and not overdo anything and end up going out of character. In the playoffs, games are not lost before they are won, like Dungy used to say. Play disciplined football, don't turn it over by attempting risky throws, and play complementary football to keep the D's legs fresh and the D and ST doing their part with gaining field position. As long as we don't have huge lulls on offense or defense and play for 60 minutes, we will have a chance.

Since AZ, they beat 4 teams with losing records, an imploded Steelers team at home who has just lost to Washington the week before, and lost to Cinci the next week, and a Fitzmagic-less Dolphins at home. Not saying they are bad, but they played some bad teams, and the good teams they played had issues at the time.

 

Play to our strengths? Cold hard stats say we're ranked 11th in both passing and rushing (equal), and on D, our rush D is #2 while our pass D is 20th. 

 

Balance on O, stop being so soft on D..... 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Since AZ, they beat 4 teams with losing records, an imploded Steelers team at home who has just lost to Washington the week before, and lost to Cinci the next week, and a Fitzmagic-less Dolphins at home. Not saying they are bad, but they played some bad teams, and the good teams they played had issues at the time.

 

Play to our strengths? Cold hard stats say we're ranked 11th in both passing and rushing (equal), and on D, our rush D is #2 while our pass D is 20th. 

 

Balance on O, stop being so soft on D..... 

 

 

 

True. For a team that plays Cover 2, we sure do give up plenty of 20+ yard plays on pass defense, right? If I am not mistaken, we are bottom 10 in the league the last few games. 

 

https://www.nfl.com/videos/colts-vs-bills-preview-super-wild-card-weekend

 

Like I said in another thread, 3rd down D and O plus red zone D and O will be the key differences between winning and losing in this game, IMO.

 

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16 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Nickel is really already our base. I don't think we're as high % as Buffalo, but we're very close. Haven't looked at the numbers this year, but last year we were 60+%.

 

We're not bad at containing QBs. LJ did have about 50 yards against us, but he was only 4.5 AVG. Our biggest weakness IMO is easily our soft zone. 

I mean both in the running game and passing game, not neessarily containing them in the pocket but more like only hope to conain them thype of thing.  Good QBs tend to go off on us.  I am not really talking as much about downfield running.  Watson torched us breaking tackles with his eyes downfield both games.   Burrow, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Carr, all torched us and all performed above their averages in most categories.

 

What I mean by our post is our defensive strength is in the run game as long as Buck and Autry are not both out of the line up.  

 

Sure good QBs hurt everyone, but they are above their own averages against us.  It doesn't seem that the fact that we are very stout against the run game seems to help our defesne too much.


Matter a fact, I have come up with an unconventional theory.  I think the imbalance of our ability v. the run and pass actully hurts the D.  These QB oriented teams are simply putting the ball in the QBs hands and throwing all the time and our front 4 gets exhausted by half time.  In other words, I think it hurts us being so good v. the run.

 

Hell let's go dime base then.  I want to see them forced to run at least to see if it will work.

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2 hours ago, Nickster said:

This could be a place for Blackmon to shine.  From what I'm reading the Bills tend to focus on short and intermediate passing.  

I think Blackmon has been nothing special for several games now, even a lability, but this might be the kind of team that can maximize his skillset.

??? Allen is #6 in deep ball attempts and #3 in air yards.... 

 

Blackmon's performance on deep coverage has been shaky as a 90 year old on crack. I'm pretty worried about this area, which is why I think we need to increase the blitz %. I just hope the coaches have stressed being disciplined to him because you know Buf is watching the tape and have circled his name.

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31 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Boring, Oregon  That's something.  I'm from Boring.  Are you going to Boring today?  Have you ever been to Boring?

I always drive right past Boring.  Never get off Highway 26!

 

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4 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

??? Allen is #6 in deep ball attempts and #3 in air yards.... 

 

Blackmon's performance on deep coverage has been shaky as a 90 year old on crack. I'm pretty worried about this area, which is why I think we need to increase the blitz %. I just hope the coaches have stressed being disciplined to him because you know Buf is watching the tape and have circled his name.

"Much like KC with Mahomes, they would rather put the ball in Allen's hands more often.  Against Seattle, they actually set an NFL record for lowest percentage of rushing plays in the first half when they threw 28 times and only attempted 3 rushes.  They kind of repeated this against Denver when they only ran 5 times in the first half.  Jumped out to big leads against both teams. The Bills are an aggressive attacking team on both sides of the ball, but they typically don't really attack deep all that often. Instead, Allen will repeatedly look to get big chunk plays in the intermediate areas between 15-20 yards.  Don't get it wrong, we CAN attack deep, but most teams are so afraid of that, our WR have tons of separation when they threaten deep and then run comebacks."

 

I was going by this from a Bills fan.  I've not watched an entire Bills game in decades so I wouldn't know personally, but the numbers don't seem to support this quote I guess.   Maybe there's some context.

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10 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

??? Allen is #6 in deep ball attempts and #3 in air yards.... 

 

Blackmon's performance on deep coverage has been shaky as a 90 year old on crack. I'm pretty worried about this area, which is why I think we need to increase the blitz %. I just hope the coaches have stressed being disciplined to him because you know Buf is watching the tape and have circled his name.

Gosh East, I don't think blitzing this team very often is the answer.  Again, from what I've been reading about Buffalo I was under the impression that Allen is money v. the Blitz. 

 

I'm concerned with Blackmon's deep cover skills.  I think we are going to need more of a Hooker type of centerfielder out their, and let Blackmon play SS which is essentially in many cases the same postion that Leonard plays.  W and FS are pretty similar in a single high set.  

 

I think Blackmon's skillset is largely nullified playing too far from the LOS.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Nickster said:

"Much like KC with Mahomes, they would rather put the ball in Allen's hands more often.  Against Seattle, they actually set an NFL record for lowest percentage of rushing plays in the first half when they threw 28 times and only attempted 3 rushes.  They kind of repeated this against Denver when they only ran 5 times in the first half.  Jumped out to big leads against both teams. The Bills are an aggressive attacking team on both sides of the ball, but they typically don't really attack deep all that often. Instead, Allen will repeatedly look to get big chunk plays in the intermediate areas between 15-20 yards.  Don't get it wrong, we CAN attack deep, but most teams are so afraid of that, our WR have tons of separation when they threaten deep and then run comebacks."

 

I was going by this from a Bills fan.  I've not watched an entire Bills game in decades so I wouldn't know personally, but the numbers don't seem to support this quote I guess.   Maybe there's some context.

Bills throw it short or medium  range and their receivers  have big run after catch ability. So we need sound tackling.

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Just now, Nickster said:

"Much like KC with Mahomes, they would rather put the ball in Allen's hands more often.  Against Seattle, they actually set an NFL record for lowest percentage of rushing plays in the first half when they threw 28 times and only attempted 3 rushes.  They kind of repeated this against Denver when they only ran 5 times in the first half.  Jumped out to big leads against both teams. The Bills are an aggressive attacking team on both sides of the ball, but they typically don't really attack deep all that often. Instead, Allen will repeatedly look to get big chunk plays in the intermediate areas between 15-20 yards.  Don't get it wrong, we CAN attack deep, but most teams are so afraid of that, our WR have tons of separation when they threaten deep and then run comebacks."

 

I was going by this from a Bills fan.  I've not watched an entire Bills game in decades so I wouldn't know personally, but the numbers don't seem to support this quote I guess.   Maybe there's some context.

You said short to intermediate. The article says intermediate chunk (which is partially correct). Stats say he's top 10, almost top 5 in deep balls. He's 10th in big plays (>25 yards). 

 

I've watched a few games. He's well rounded and attacks 100% of the field. Perimeter and seam, short, intermediate, and deep. If you look at his WRs and their individual stats, you can see who gets what as the norm. 

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15 minutes ago, Nickster said:

I mean both in the running game and passing game, not neessarily containing them in the pocket but more like only hope to conain them thype of thing.  Good QBs tend to go off on us.  I am not really talking as much about downfield running.  Watson torched us breaking tackles with his eyes downfield both games.   Burrow, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Carr, all torched us and all performed above their averages in most categories.

 

What I mean by our post is our defensive strength is in the run game as long as Buck and Autry are not both out of the line up.  

 

Sure good QBs hurt everyone, but they are above their own averages against us.  It doesn't seem that the fact that we are very stout against the run game seems to help our defesne too much.


Matter a fact, I have come up with an unconventional theory.  I think the imbalance of our ability v. the run and pass actully hurts the D.  These QB oriented teams are simply putting the ball in the QBs hands and throwing all the time and our front 4 gets exhausted by half time.  In other words, I think it hurts us being so good v. the run.

 

Hell let's go dime base then.  I want to see them forced to run at least to see if it will work.

I'm sure we'll see a decent amount of Dime. Even if they do chose to run, their RBs are not world beaters, and they aren't fast. Productive to an extent, but not scary or capable of taking it to the house. So nothing a DB can't handle.

 

I'm bummed RYS is out. This is a game I think he'd play very well in. And it's likely that Moore moves to CB2, with Carrie to NB. Carrie is fine at NB, but Moore struggles at CB2. I just hope they allow him to play tight.

 

I think we'll definitely see more of Wilson, and perhaps Odum as well.

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17 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Gosh East, I don't think blitzing this team very often is the answer.  Again, from what I've been reading about Buffalo I was under the impression that Allen is money v. the Blitz. 

 

I'm concerned with Blackmon's deep cover skills.  I think we are going to need more of a Hooker type of centerfielder out their, and let Blackmon play SS which is essentially in many cases the same postion that Leonard plays.  W and FS are pretty similar in a single high set.  

 

I think Blackmon's skillset is largely nullified playing too far from the LOS.

Allen's completion % is great, but drops biggly to very average when under pressure. 

 

If we are playing C1 or C3 with single high, I'd agree Hooker is a much better option. I've said for a while, Blackmon could likely be PB/AP at SS. 

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11 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Allen's completion % is great, but drops biggly to very average when under pressure. 

 

If we are playing C1 or C3 with single high, I'd agree Hooker is a much better option. I've said for a while, Blackmon could likely be PB/AP at SS. 

What is PB/AP?

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I noticed in the Bills 3 losses they've scored less points than the opposition...

 

Seriously, good post @EastStreet. Strange to be having the conversations that I'm sure fans of previous opponents in the Manning era must have had. Keep the ball out his hands etc etc.

 

Saying that, didn't work too well for Miami that one time.

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32 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I'm sure we'll see a decent amount of Dime. Even if they do chose to run, their RBs are not world beaters, and they aren't fast. Productive to an extent, but not scary or capable of taking it to the house. So nothing a DB can't handle.

 

I'm bummed RYS is out. This is a game I think he'd play very well in. And it's likely that Moore moves to CB2, with Carrie to NB. Carrie is fine at NB, but Moore struggles at CB2. I just hope they allow him to play tight.

 

I think we'll definitely see more of Wilson, and perhaps Odum as well.

I agree about Rock, and I think he is salvagable as a slot corner if in fact his lack of speed prohibits him from being an effective outside corner. 


I'm totally biased because I've been involved with wrestling for decades, and I want him to be good because he is part of our wrestling cult.

 

But I really want to see him in a position to get legal  hands on people and beat the dog * out of them.

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58 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

True. For a team that plays Cover 2, we sure do give up plenty of 20+ yard plays on pass defense, right? If I am not mistaken, we are bottom 10 in the league the last few games. 

 

https://www.nfl.com/videos/colts-vs-bills-preview-super-wild-card-weekend

 

Like I said in another thread, 3rd down D and O plus red zone D and O will be the key differences between winning and losing in this game, IMO.

 

Alot of those plays are when we switch to man.  We are not good in man.

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20 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Allen's completion % is great, but drops biggly to very average when under pressure. 

 

If we are playing C1 or C3 with single high, I'd agree Hooker is a much better option. I've said for a while, Blackmon could likely be PB/AP at SS. 

 (Insert any QBs name here)  completion % is great, but drops biggly to very average when under pressure.

 

It's not so much completion % that is concerning to me, it's big plays v. Blitz.      It takes 10 Tua Tagavaialo passes to equal one 50 yd chunk. 

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12 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

I noticed in the Bills 3 losses they've scored less points than the opposition...

 

Seriously, good post @EastStreet. Strange to be having the conversations that I'm sure fans of previous opponents in the Manning era must have had. Keep the ball out his hands etc etc.

 

Saying that, didn't work too well for Miami that one time.

yeah, depending on the year, Peyton had some RB help though. 

i'm still a bit surprised how one dimensional, yet successful the Bills have been.

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