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Wildcard Colts at Bills: Matchup ranks, stats, schedule comp, poll, ++


Game Prediction  

51 members have voted

  1. 1. Game Prediction

    • Colts by 21 or more
    • Colts by 14-20
    • Colts by 7-13
    • Colts by 1-6
    • Tie
    • Bills by 1-6
      0
    • Bills by 7-13
    • Bills by 14-20
    • Bills by 21+
      0
  2. 2. How many yards does Allen throw for?

  3. 3. In your opinion, what is the biggest key to a win vs Buffalo

    • Limit Allen to under 300
    • Great Balance on O (250+ passing, 125+ rushing)
    • Great passing (300+ passing) by Rivers
    • Great running (150+ rushing) by Taylor and Hines

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  • Poll closed on 01/09/2021 at 06:00 PM

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33 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Way too much below, but summarized a decent amount for the lazy and non-stat heads. Enjoy.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

TLDR Summary 

 

Bills Defense
Decent overall, but not great in any facet. No player with over 5 sacks. They blitz at a top 10 rate yet only yeild an average sack %. They do get a fair amount of INTs, but no DB has the lion's share. White is very good CB and is headed to the PB along with Edmunds (LB). Vs the run, they did a good job of limiting Henry, but Tannehill threw 3 TDs against them. IIRC, they really sold out vs the run that game. NE rushed well against them both games. AZ also ran very well against them.

 

Bills Offense 
Great passing attack. Allen can deal it around, but he has two favs (Diggs and Beasley). One of the best WR units in the NFL for sure. They don't throw to TE or RB too much, and Allen can hurt you long or short. Diggs oblique injury could be huge. He said he was OK yesterday after missing Wendesday practice (he was LP Tuesday), but obliques can be tricky. Beasley, their WR2 missed last week's game, and was a DNP again Tuesday. Not too worried about the running game. Decent, but it's set up by the pass. They haven't had a 100 yard rusher all year in any games. Allen was the leading rusher 4 times...

 

Bills Special Teams
Roberts (Pro Bowl selection) and McKenzie are both electric as returners. Roberts has had achilles and back injuries lately, and McKenzie is on this week's injury report. Either can take it to the house at any time though. McKenzie took it to the house just last weekend.

-------------------------------------------------------------

 

Keys to the game on defense
Keep Allen under 300. All three losses have that in common. Allen will kill you long or short if you play too soft. I'm sure we'll play a decent amount of C2 zone to limit the deep stuff (which he's very good at), but if we give too much cushion, it could be a death sentence. IMO, Flus will have to gamble more this game. Blitz more, and play tighter zone and some man. Allen is 4th best completion % with a clean pocket, but drops to average when pressured. He also has one of the highest time to throws. We don't have to worry much about their run, so gambling a bit on pass D should be doable. If Diggs is at full force, that will limit their entire passing game IMO. If they are without Beasley, their short game will be impacted. McKenzie, also hobled now, caught 2 TDs in his place last week. Davis is their only WR taller than 6ft, but Allen loves all his short speedy guys. Need to be physical with these small WRs at the line and take them off their timing. If you let them get clean breaks from a ton of cushion, I just don't like our chances. It's also worth noting that Allen laid an egg vs a very bad pass D last year in the Wildcard (Houston's pass D was 29th).


Key to the game on offense
Balance is key. Bills are only 2-2 vs top 10 total Os. They are very good vs one dimentional passing Os, and OK vs teams with one dimentional rushing Os. They play mostly nickel (4-2-5) so Taylor should have success. They limited Henry, but Tannehill burned them for selling out. We need to do the same. Only one of their DBs is over 6 foot. Only one of the LBs (Edumunds) is over 6-1. Kill them with size, and give MAC, Pittman, and Doyle a good share of targets. They are good limiting deep shots, but we should be able to be successful short to intermediate. A deep shot or two should be early/timely and keep them from selling out too much. Send a speedy WR or Hines on a go route on 1st down or second and short to keep them on their heels. They blitz at a top 10 rate, so screens should be dialed up regularly. Mario Addison is a weakspot (DE), so I'd love to see both Hines and Taylor hit his edge. Both RBs should have success catching too. Hughes, their best DE, is the only DL that grades out well via PFF. I expect Taylor to do well rushing the interior, but Edmunds at MLB likely won't allow many long breaks.

-----------------------------------------------------

 

Bills Pro Bowlers (*starter)
Allen QB
Diggs* WR
Edmunds LB
White* CB
Roberts* Returns

-------------------------------------------------------------- 

 

Injury Report (starters)

 

Bills 
Diggs WR1 (oblique) - LP/DNP/LP - Questionable
Beasley WR2 (knee) - DNP/DNP/LP - Questionable
McKenzie WR/RS (Ankle) - LP/LP/FP - 
Feliciano RG (knee) - FP/FP/FP

 

Colts
Buckner (ankle) - DNP/DNP/LP - Questionable
Holden (ankel) - DNP/DNP/DNP - Out
RYS (concussion) - DNP/DNP/DNP - Out
Carrie (ankle/shoulder) - LP/FP/FP - 
Taylor (shoulder) - LP/LP/LP -
Willis (concussion) - FP/FP/FP

--------------------------------------------------------------

 

Unit Ranks and Team Stats - Colts


Offense
Total Yardage - 10th (378.1 ypg)
Total Points - 9th (28.2)
DVOA - 12th
FPI - 12th
Passing Yardage - 11th (253.3 pg)
Rushing Yardage - 11th (124.8 pg)
Rushing Attempts - 10th (28.7)
3rd Down % - 22nd (39.6%)
Red Zone % (TD) - 18th
Sack % - 3rd (3.7%)
INT % (best) - 14th (1.99%)
Time of Possession - 10th (30:58)
Run/Pass % - 44.5/55.5 (25th most passing)
Yards per Completion - 11th (10.9)
Yards per Attempt - 9th (7.3)
Time to Throw - 6th 2.52 secs (lowest)
OL Rank (PFF) - 7th

 

Defense
Total Yardage - 8th (332.1 pg)
Total Points - 10th (22.6 pg)
DVOA - 7th
FPI - 12th
Passing Yardage - 20th (241.6 pg)
Rushing Yardage - 2nd (90.5 pg)
3rd Down % - 19th (42.4%)
Red Zone % - 15th (61.5%)
Sack % - 11th (6.6%)
INT % - 8th (2.67%)
Blitz % - 31st (17.1%)
Pressure % - 13th (23.1%)
AVG Passer Rating Allowed - 12th (90.5)
Takeaways per Game - Tie 3rd (1.6 pg)

 

Misc & STs
SoS - 32nd
Total DVOA - 10th
Total FPI - 9th
ST DVOA - 10th
ST FPI - 8th
Non-Offesnive TDs per Game - 1st 0.4 pg
FG Attempts per Game - 4th (2.3)
FG Conversion - 14th (86.5%)
Punts per Game (most) - Tie 26th (3.1)
Punts Net Yard AVG - Tie 22nd (39.6)
Penalties per Game (least) - 19th (5.9)

Opponent Penalties per Game (most) - Tie 18th (5.4)
 

-----------------------------------------------------------

 

 Unit Ranks and Team Stats - Bills

 

Offense
Total Yardage - 2nd (396.4 ypg)
Total Points - 2nd (31.3)
DVOA - 5th
FPI - 4th
Passing Yardage - 3rd (288.8 pg)
Rushing Yardage - 20th (107.7 pg)
Rushing Attempts - 17th (25.7)
3rd Down % - 1st (49.7%)
Red Zone % (TD) - 13th
Sack % - 7th (4.3%)
INT % (best) - 11th (1.85%)
Time of Possession - 3rd (31:45)
Run/Pass % - 39.75/60.25 (13th most passing)
Yards per Completion - 7th (11.3)
Yards per Attempt - 4th (7.8)
Time to Throw - 39th (3.04 secs)
OL Rank (PFF) - 10th

 

Defense
Total Yardage - 14th (352.5 pg)
Total Points - 16th (23.4 pg)
DVOA - 12th
FPI - 6th
Passing Yardage - 13th (232.9 pg)
Rushing Yardage - 17th (119.6 pg)
3rd Down % - 13th (39.8%)
Red Zone % - 28th (65.5%)
Sack % - 14th (6.2%)
INT % - 9th (2.67%)
Blitz % - 8th (35.8%)
Pressure % - 23rd (21%)
AVG Passer Rating Allowed - 5th (86.9)
Takeaways per Game - Tie 3rd (1.6 pg)

 

Misc & STs
SoS - 20th
Total DVOA - 4th
Total FPI - 2nd
ST DVOA - 4th
ST FPI - 5th
Non-Offesnive TDs per Game - Tied (2nd-13th) 0.2 pg
FG Attempts per Game - 10th (2.1)
FG Conversion - 17th (82.4%)
Punts per Game (most) - 32nd (2.6)
Punts Net Yard AVG - 5th (44.0)
Penalties per Game (least) - 27th (6.4)
Opponent Penalties per Game (most) - Tie 18th (5.4)

-------------------------------------------------------

 

vs Same Opponents
Buffalo (Colts)
NYJ: W 27-17 / @W 18-10 (W 36-7)
@LVR: W 30-23 (@ W 44-27)
@TN: L 42-16 (@ W 34-17 / L 45-26)
PS: W 26-15 (@ L 28-24)

 

Note - We did as well or better vs every common opponent except Pitt, which was home for them, road for us, and we should have beaten....
-----------------------------------------------------

 

Schedule vs Top 10s

vs Top 10 Total Os
Colts - 5 (4-1)
Bills - 4 (2-2)
vs Top 10 Passing Os
Colts - 5 (5-0)
Bills - 3 (2-1)
vs Top 10 Rushing Os
Colts - 6 (3-3)
Bills - 5 (3-2)

 

vs Top 10 Total Ds
Colts - 3 (1-2)
Bills - 3 (3-0)
vs Top 10 Passing Ds
Colts - 3 (1-2)
Bills - 7 (6-1)
vs Top 10 Rushing Ds
Colts - 2 (0-2)
Bills - 2 (2-0)

 

Notes on Schedule
Colts - We're better playing against good Os, than good Ds. Colts are 4-1 vs top 10 Os, and 5-0 vs top 10 passing Os.
Bills - Bills have been great vs good Ds, but about average vs top 10 Os. 

--------------------------------------------------------------


Notable Individual Personnel 

 

Colts
Rivers QB
-Passing Yards - 10th
-Completion % - 8th
- Passer rating - 13th
- Deep ball attempts - 18th
- Air yards - 14th
- Money throws - 18th
- Danger plays - 17th
- Interceptable passes - 7th
- Accuracy rating - 7th
- True completion % - 2nd
- Deep ball completion % - 8th
- Pressured completion % - 6th
- Dropped passes - 28th (14)
Taylor RB1
- Rushing yards - 3rd
- Rushing AVG - 10th
- Catch % - 1st
Hines APB1/PR
- Recv Yards - 93rd (all positions)
- Catch % - 8th
- PR AVG - 8th
Hilton WR1
- Recv Yards - 43rd
- YPC - 34th
Pascal WR2
- Recv Yards  - 66th
- YPC - 22nd
Pittman WR3 
- Recv Yards - 89th
- YPC - 55th
- YAC per catch - 6th
MAC TE2
- YPC - 51st
- Catch % - 17th
Rodgers DB/R
- KO Return AVG - 3rd
Blankenship K
- FG % - 21st
Sanchez P
- Yards per Punt - 15th
Leonard WILL
- Tackles - 8th
- TFL - 66th
- PDs - 65th
- FFs - 14th
Walker - MIKE
- Tackles - 51st
Wills SS
- Tackles - 70th
- INTs - 41st
Moore NB
- Tackles - 79th
- PDs - 17th
- INTs - 7th
Okereke MIKE/SAM
- Tackles - 98th
Buckner 3T
- Sacks - 11th
- TFL - 27th
- FFs - 34th
Houston DE
- Sacks - 21st 
- TFL - 48th
Autry DE
- Sacks - 27th
- TFL - 37th
Rhodes CB
- PDs - 17th
- INTs - 41st
Carrie CB
- PDs - 51st
- INTs - 41st
RYS CB
- PDs - 65th
Blackmon S
-INTs - 41st
Odum - S/STs
- STs Tackles - 1st


Bills
Allen QB 
- Total passing yards - 5th
- Completions % - 4th
- Passer Rating - 4th
- Fumbles (most) - 6th
- Totals TDs - 2nd
- Money throws - 4th
- Danger plays - 2nd
- Air Yards - 3rd
- Interceptable passes - 8th
- Deep ball attempts - 6th
- Passing TDs - 5th
- Accuraccy rating - 17th
- RZ completion % - 21st
- Deep Ball completion % - 9th
- Pressured completion % - 14th
- Clean pocket completion % - 4th
- QB carries per game - 5th
- Dropped passes - 16th (19)
Singletary RB1
-Rushing Yards - 25th
- Rushing AVG - 28th
- Catch % - 31st
Diggs WR1
- Recv Yards - 1st
- YPC - 64th
- Catch % - 28th
- Drops - 12th
Beasley WR2
- Recv Yards - 23rd
- YPC - 73rd
- Catch % - 26th
Davis WR3
- Recv Yards - 75th
- YPC - 4th
Brown WR4
- Recv Yards - 97th
- YPC - 28th
McKenzie WR5/R
- Catch % - 3rd
Robers WR/R
- KO Return AVG - 1st
- PR AVG - 9th
- Fumbles - 39th
Knox TE
- YAC per catch - 4th
Bass - K
- FG % - 25th
Bojorquez - P
- Yards per Punt - 1st
Edmunds LB
- Tackles - 14th
Poyer S
- Tackles - 16th
- INTs - 41st
- FFs - 34th
Johnson CB
- Tackles - 49th
- PDs - 65th
Klein LB
- Tackles - 96th
- FFs - 34th
White CB
- PDs - 24th
- INTs - 16th
Wallas CB
- PDs 51st
- INTs - 41st
Marlowe S
- INTs - 41st


 

Thank you sir. You are a scholar and a gentleman 

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36 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Way too much below, but summarized a decent amount for the lazy and non-stat heads. Enjoy.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

TLDR Summary 

 

Bills Defense
Decent overall, but not great in any facet. No player with over 5 sacks. They blitz at a top 10 rate yet only yeild an average sack %. They do get a fair amount of INTs, but no DB has the lion's share. White is very good CB and is headed to the PB along with Edmunds (LB). Vs the run, they did a good job of limiting Henry, but Tannehill threw 3 TDs against them. IIRC, they really sold out vs the run that game. NE rushed well against them both games. AZ also ran very well against them.

 

Bills Offense 
Great passing attack. Allen can deal it around, but he has two favs (Diggs and Beasley). One of the best WR units in the NFL for sure. They don't throw to TE or RB too much, and Allen can hurt you long or short. Diggs oblique injury could be huge. He said he was OK yesterday after missing Wendesday practice (he was LP Tuesday), but obliques can be tricky. Beasley, their WR2 missed last week's game, and was a DNP again Tuesday. Not too worried about the running game. Decent, but it's set up by the pass. They haven't had a 100 yard rusher all year in any games. Allen was the leading rusher 4 times...

 

Bills Special Teams
Roberts (Pro Bowl selection) and McKenzie are both electric as returners. Roberts has had achilles and back injuries lately, and McKenzie is on this week's injury report. Either can take it to the house at any time though. McKenzie took it to the house just last weekend.

-------------------------------------------------------------

 

Keys to the game on defense
Keep Allen under 300. All three losses have that in common. Allen will kill you long or short if you play too soft. I'm sure we'll play a decent amount of C2 zone to limit the deep stuff (which he's very good at), but if we give too much cushion, it could be a death sentence. IMO, Flus will have to gamble more this game. Blitz more, and play tighter zone and some man. Allen is 4th best completion % with a clean pocket, but drops to average when pressured. He also has one of the highest time to throws. We don't have to worry much about their run, so gambling a bit on pass D should be doable. If Diggs is at full force, that will limit their entire passing game IMO. If they are without Beasley, their short game will be impacted. McKenzie, also hobled now, caught 2 TDs in his place last week. Davis is their only WR taller than 6ft, but Allen loves all his short speedy guys. Need to be physical with these small WRs at the line and take them off their timing. If you let them get clean breaks from a ton of cushion, I just don't like our chances. It's also worth noting that Allen laid an egg vs a very bad pass D last year in the Wildcard (Houston's pass D was 29th).


Key to the game on offense
Balance is key. Bills are only 2-2 vs top 10 total Os. They are very good vs one dimentional passing Os, and OK vs teams with one dimentional rushing Os. They play mostly nickel (4-2-5) so Taylor should have success. They limited Henry, but Tannehill burned them for selling out. We need to do the same. Only one of their DBs is over 6 foot. Only one of the LBs (Edumunds) is over 6-1. Kill them with size, and give MAC, Pittman, and Doyle a good share of targets. They are good limiting deep shots, but we should be able to be successful short to intermediate. A deep shot or two should be early/timely and keep them from selling out too much. Send a speedy WR or Hines on a go route on 1st down or second and short to keep them on their heels. They blitz at a top 10 rate, so screens should be dialed up regularly. Mario Addison is a weakspot (DE), so I'd love to see both Hines and Taylor hit his edge. Both RBs should have success catching too. Hughes, their best DE, is the only DL that grades out well via PFF. I expect Taylor to do well rushing the interior, but Edmunds at MLB likely won't allow many long breaks.

-----------------------------------------------------

 

Bills Pro Bowlers (*starter)
Allen QB
Diggs* WR
Edmunds LB
White* CB
Roberts* Returns

-------------------------------------------------------------- 

 

Injury Report (starters)

 

Bills 
Diggs WR1 (oblique) - LP/DNP/LP - Questionable
Beasley WR2 (knee) - DNP/DNP/LP - Questionable
McKenzie WR/RS (Ankle) - LP/LP/FP - 
Feliciano RG (knee) - FP/FP/FP

 

Colts
Buckner (ankle) - DNP/DNP/LP - Questionable
Holden (ankel) - DNP/DNP/DNP - Out
RYS (concussion) - DNP/DNP/DNP - Out
Carrie (ankle/shoulder) - LP/FP/FP - 
Taylor (shoulder) - LP/LP/LP -
Willis (concussion) - FP/FP/FP

--------------------------------------------------------------

 

Unit Ranks and Team Stats - Colts


Offense
Total Yardage - 10th (378.1 ypg)
Total Points - 9th (28.2)
DVOA - 12th
FPI - 12th
Passing Yardage - 11th (253.3 pg)
Rushing Yardage - 11th (124.8 pg)
Rushing Attempts - 10th (28.7)
3rd Down % - 22nd (39.6%)
Red Zone % (TD) - 18th
Sack % - 3rd (3.7%)
INT % (best) - 14th (1.99%)
Time of Possession - 10th (30:58)
Run/Pass % - 44.5/55.5 (25th most passing)
Yards per Completion - 11th (10.9)
Yards per Attempt - 9th (7.3)
Time to Throw - 6th 2.52 secs (lowest)
OL Rank (PFF) - 7th

 

Defense
Total Yardage - 8th (332.1 pg)
Total Points - 10th (22.6 pg)
DVOA - 7th
FPI - 12th
Passing Yardage - 20th (241.6 pg)
Rushing Yardage - 2nd (90.5 pg)
3rd Down % - 19th (42.4%)
Red Zone % - 15th (61.5%)
Sack % - 11th (6.6%)
INT % - 8th (2.67%)
Blitz % - 31st (17.1%)
Pressure % - 13th (23.1%)
AVG Passer Rating Allowed - 12th (90.5)
Takeaways per Game - Tie 3rd (1.6 pg)

 

Misc & STs
SoS - 32nd
Total DVOA - 10th
Total FPI - 9th
ST DVOA - 10th
ST FPI - 8th
Non-Offesnive TDs per Game - 1st 0.4 pg
FG Attempts per Game - 4th (2.3)
FG Conversion - 14th (86.5%)
Punts per Game (most) - Tie 26th (3.1)
Punts Net Yard AVG - Tie 22nd (39.6)
Penalties per Game (least) - 19th (5.9)

Opponent Penalties per Game (most) - Tie 18th (5.4)
 

-----------------------------------------------------------

 

 Unit Ranks and Team Stats - Bills

 

Offense
Total Yardage - 2nd (396.4 ypg)
Total Points - 2nd (31.3)
DVOA - 5th
FPI - 4th
Passing Yardage - 3rd (288.8 pg)
Rushing Yardage - 20th (107.7 pg)
Rushing Attempts - 17th (25.7)
3rd Down % - 1st (49.7%)
Red Zone % (TD) - 13th
Sack % - 7th (4.3%)
INT % (best) - 11th (1.85%)
Time of Possession - 3rd (31:45)
Run/Pass % - 39.75/60.25 (13th most passing)
Yards per Completion - 7th (11.3)
Yards per Attempt - 4th (7.8)
Time to Throw - 39th (3.04 secs)
OL Rank (PFF) - 10th

 

Defense
Total Yardage - 14th (352.5 pg)
Total Points - 16th (23.4 pg)
DVOA - 12th
FPI - 6th
Passing Yardage - 13th (232.9 pg)
Rushing Yardage - 17th (119.6 pg)
3rd Down % - 13th (39.8%)
Red Zone % - 28th (65.5%)
Sack % - 14th (6.2%)
INT % - 9th (2.67%)
Blitz % - 8th (35.8%)
Pressure % - 23rd (21%)
AVG Passer Rating Allowed - 5th (86.9)
Takeaways per Game - Tie 3rd (1.6 pg)

 

Misc & STs
SoS - 20th
Total DVOA - 4th
Total FPI - 2nd
ST DVOA - 4th
ST FPI - 5th
Non-Offesnive TDs per Game - Tied (2nd-13th) 0.2 pg
FG Attempts per Game - 10th (2.1)
FG Conversion - 17th (82.4%)
Punts per Game (most) - 32nd (2.6)
Punts Net Yard AVG - 5th (44.0)
Penalties per Game (least) - 27th (6.4)
Opponent Penalties per Game (most) - Tie 18th (5.4)

-------------------------------------------------------

 

vs Same Opponents
Buffalo (Colts)
NYJ: W 27-17 / @W 18-10 (W 36-7)
@LVR: W 30-23 (@ W 44-27)
@TN: L 42-16 (@ W 34-17 / L 45-26)
PS: W 26-15 (@ L 28-24)

 

Note - We did as well or better vs every common opponent except Pitt, which was home for them, road for us, and we should have beaten....
-----------------------------------------------------

 

Schedule vs Top 10s

vs Top 10 Total Os
Colts - 5 (4-1)
Bills - 4 (2-2)
vs Top 10 Passing Os
Colts - 5 (5-0)
Bills - 3 (2-1)
vs Top 10 Rushing Os
Colts - 6 (3-3)
Bills - 5 (3-2)

 

vs Top 10 Total Ds
Colts - 3 (1-2)
Bills - 3 (3-0)
vs Top 10 Passing Ds
Colts - 3 (1-2)
Bills - 7 (6-1)
vs Top 10 Rushing Ds
Colts - 2 (0-2)
Bills - 2 (2-0)

 

Notes on Schedule
Colts - We're better playing against good Os, than good Ds. Colts are 4-1 vs top 10 Os, and 5-0 vs top 10 passing Os.
Bills - Bills have been great vs good Ds, but about average vs top 10 Os. 

--------------------------------------------------------------


Notable Individual Personnel 

 

Colts
Rivers QB
-Passing Yards - 10th
-Completion % - 8th
- Passer rating - 13th
- Deep ball attempts - 18th
- Air yards - 14th
- Money throws - 18th
- Danger plays - 17th
- Interceptable passes - 7th
- Accuracy rating - 7th
- True completion % - 2nd
- Deep ball completion % - 8th
- Pressured completion % - 6th
- Dropped passes - 28th (14)
Taylor RB1
- Rushing yards - 3rd
- Rushing AVG - 10th
- Catch % - 1st
Hines APB1/PR
- Recv Yards - 93rd (all positions)
- Catch % - 8th
- PR AVG - 8th
Hilton WR1
- Recv Yards - 43rd
- YPC - 34th
Pascal WR2
- Recv Yards  - 66th
- YPC - 22nd
Pittman WR3 
- Recv Yards - 89th
- YPC - 55th
- YAC per catch - 6th
MAC TE2
- YPC - 51st
- Catch % - 17th
Rodgers DB/R
- KO Return AVG - 3rd
Blankenship K
- FG % - 21st
Sanchez P
- Yards per Punt - 15th
Leonard WILL
- Tackles - 8th
- TFL - 66th
- PDs - 65th
- FFs - 14th
Walker - MIKE
- Tackles - 51st
Wills SS
- Tackles - 70th
- INTs - 41st
Moore NB
- Tackles - 79th
- PDs - 17th
- INTs - 7th
Okereke MIKE/SAM
- Tackles - 98th
Buckner 3T
- Sacks - 11th
- TFL - 27th
- FFs - 34th
Houston DE
- Sacks - 21st 
- TFL - 48th
Autry DE
- Sacks - 27th
- TFL - 37th
Rhodes CB
- PDs - 17th
- INTs - 41st
Carrie CB
- PDs - 51st
- INTs - 41st
RYS CB
- PDs - 65th
Blackmon S
-INTs - 41st
Odum - S/STs
- STs Tackles - 1st


Bills
Allen QB 
- Total passing yards - 5th
- Completions % - 4th
- Passer Rating - 4th
- Fumbles (most) - 6th
- Totals TDs - 2nd
- Money throws - 4th
- Danger plays - 2nd
- Air Yards - 3rd
- Interceptable passes - 8th
- Deep ball attempts - 6th
- Passing TDs - 5th
- Accuraccy rating - 17th
- RZ completion % - 21st
- Deep Ball completion % - 9th
- Pressured completion % - 14th
- Clean pocket completion % - 4th
- QB carries per game - 5th
- Dropped passes - 16th (19)
Singletary RB1
-Rushing Yards - 25th
- Rushing AVG - 28th
- Catch % - 31st
Diggs WR1
- Recv Yards - 1st
- YPC - 64th
- Catch % - 28th
- Drops - 12th
Beasley WR2
- Recv Yards - 23rd
- YPC - 73rd
- Catch % - 26th
Davis WR3
- Recv Yards - 75th
- YPC - 4th
Brown WR4
- Recv Yards - 97th
- YPC - 28th
McKenzie WR5/R
- Catch % - 3rd
Robers WR/R
- KO Return AVG - 1st
- PR AVG - 9th
- Fumbles - 39th
Knox TE
- YAC per catch - 4th
Bass - K
- FG % - 25th
Bojorquez - P
- Yards per Punt - 1st
Edmunds LB
- Tackles - 14th
Poyer S
- Tackles - 16th
- INTs - 41st
- FFs - 34th
Johnson CB
- Tackles - 49th
- PDs - 65th
Klein LB
- Tackles - 96th
- FFs - 34th
White CB
- PDs - 24th
- INTs - 16th
Wallas CB
- PDs 51st
- INTs - 41st
Marlowe S
- INTs - 41st


 

Daggumit, That must have been some coffee!  Thank you for doing this 

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5 minutes ago, PRnum1 said:

Thank you sir. You are a scholar and a gentleman 

At your service sir. I know most don't enjoy deep dives on the factual/stats sides, but happy to make the few happy :thmup:

I simply prefer to go into games, especially playoffs, armed with a level of info.

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3 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

Daggumit, That must have been some coffee!  Thank you for doing this 

You're more than welcome. I started digging, and found more and more relevant stuff...... 2 big Yeti mugs last night, and a little more today lol.... I overstocked on SBs, and Costco's SB's roast..... My grinder has been busy like JT last week :headspin:

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While I know the stats are heavy for most, I recommend taking a look at both the same/common opponent section, along with record vs top 10s section

 

I found it very interesting.

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1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

Way too much below, but summarized a decent amount for the lazy and non-stat heads. Enjoy.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

TLDR Summary 

 

Bills Defense
Decent overall, but not great in any facet. No player with over 5 sacks. They blitz at a top 10 rate yet only yeild an average sack %. They do get a fair amount of INTs, but no DB has the lion's share. White is very good CB and is headed to the PB along with Edmunds (LB). Vs the run, they did a good job of limiting Henry, but Tannehill threw 3 TDs against them. IIRC, they really sold out vs the run that game. NE rushed well against them both games. AZ also ran very well against them.

 

Bills Offense 
Great passing attack. Allen can deal it around, but he has two favs (Diggs and Beasley). One of the best WR units in the NFL for sure. They don't throw to TE or RB too much, and Allen can hurt you long or short. Diggs oblique injury could be huge. He said he was OK yesterday after missing Wendesday practice (he was LP Tuesday), but obliques can be tricky. Beasley, their WR2 missed last week's game, and was a DNP again Tuesday. Not too worried about the running game. Decent, but it's set up by the pass. They haven't had a 100 yard rusher all year in any games. Allen was the leading rusher 4 times...

 

Bills Special Teams
Roberts (Pro Bowl selection) and McKenzie are both electric as returners. Roberts has had achilles and back injuries lately, and McKenzie is on this week's injury report. Either can take it to the house at any time though. McKenzie took it to the house just last weekend.

-------------------------------------------------------------

 

Keys to the game on defense
Keep Allen under 300. All three losses have that in common. Allen will kill you long or short if you play too soft. I'm sure we'll play a decent amount of C2 zone to limit the deep stuff (which he's very good at), but if we give too much cushion, it could be a death sentence. IMO, Flus will have to gamble more this game. Blitz more, and play tighter zone and some man. Allen is 4th best completion % with a clean pocket, but drops to average when pressured. He also has one of the highest time to throws. We don't have to worry much about their run, so gambling a bit on pass D should be doable. If Diggs is at full force, that will limit their entire passing game IMO. If they are without Beasley, their short game will be impacted. McKenzie, also hobled now, caught 2 TDs in his place last week. Davis is their only WR taller than 6ft, but Allen loves all his short speedy guys. Need to be physical with these small WRs at the line and take them off their timing. If you let them get clean breaks from a ton of cushion, I just don't like our chances. It's also worth noting that Allen laid an egg vs a very bad pass D last year in the Wildcard (Houston's pass D was 29th).


Key to the game on offense
Balance is key. Bills are only 2-2 vs top 10 total Os. They are very good vs one dimentional passing Os, and OK vs teams with one dimentional rushing Os. They play mostly nickel (4-2-5) so Taylor should have success. They limited Henry, but Tannehill burned them for selling out. We need to do the same. Only one of their DBs is over 6 foot. Only one of the LBs (Edumunds) is over 6-1. Kill them with size, and give MAC, Pittman, and Doyle a good share of targets. They are good limiting deep shots, but we should be able to be successful short to intermediate. A deep shot or two should be early/timely and keep them from selling out too much. Send a speedy WR or Hines on a go route on 1st down or second and short to keep them on their heels. They blitz at a top 10 rate, so screens should be dialed up regularly. Mario Addison is a weakspot (DE), so I'd love to see both Hines and Taylor hit his edge. Both RBs should have success catching too. Hughes, their best DE, is the only DL that grades out well via PFF. I expect Taylor to do well rushing the interior, but Edmunds at MLB likely won't allow many long breaks.

-----------------------------------------------------

 

Bills Pro Bowlers (*starter)
Allen QB
Diggs* WR
Edmunds LB
White* CB
Roberts* Returns

-------------------------------------------------------------- 

 

Injury Report (starters)

 

Bills 
Diggs WR1 (oblique) - LP/DNP/LP - Questionable
Beasley WR2 (knee) - DNP/DNP/LP - Questionable
McKenzie WR/RS (Ankle) - LP/LP/FP - 
Feliciano RG (knee) - FP/FP/FP

 

Colts
Buckner (ankle) - DNP/DNP/LP - Questionable
Holden (ankel) - DNP/DNP/DNP - Out
RYS (concussion) - DNP/DNP/DNP - Out
Carrie (ankle/shoulder) - LP/FP/FP - 
Taylor (shoulder) - LP/LP/LP -
Willis (concussion) - FP/FP/FP

--------------------------------------------------------------

 

Unit Ranks and Team Stats - Colts


Offense
Total Yardage - 10th (378.1 ypg)
Total Points - 9th (28.2)
DVOA - 12th
FPI - 12th
Passing Yardage - 11th (253.3 pg)
Rushing Yardage - 11th (124.8 pg)
Rushing Attempts - 10th (28.7)
3rd Down % - 22nd (39.6%)
Red Zone % (TD) - 18th
Sack % - 3rd (3.7%)
INT % (best) - 14th (1.99%)
Time of Possession - 10th (30:58)
Run/Pass % - 44.5/55.5 (25th most passing)
Yards per Completion - 11th (10.9)
Yards per Attempt - 9th (7.3)
Time to Throw - 6th 2.52 secs (lowest)
OL Rank (PFF) - 7th

 

Defense
Total Yardage - 8th (332.1 pg)
Total Points - 10th (22.6 pg)
DVOA - 7th
FPI - 12th
Passing Yardage - 20th (241.6 pg)
Rushing Yardage - 2nd (90.5 pg)
3rd Down % - 19th (42.4%)
Red Zone % - 15th (61.5%)
Sack % - 11th (6.6%)
INT % - 8th (2.67%)
Blitz % - 31st (17.1%)
Pressure % - 13th (23.1%)
AVG Passer Rating Allowed - 12th (90.5)
Takeaways per Game - Tie 3rd (1.6 pg)

 

Misc & STs
SoS - 32nd
Total DVOA - 10th
Total FPI - 9th
ST DVOA - 10th
ST FPI - 8th
Non-Offesnive TDs per Game - 1st 0.4 pg
FG Attempts per Game - 4th (2.3)
FG Conversion - 14th (86.5%)
Punts per Game (most) - Tie 26th (3.1)
Punts Net Yard AVG - Tie 22nd (39.6)
Penalties per Game (least) - 19th (5.9)

Opponent Penalties per Game (most) - Tie 18th (5.4)
 

-----------------------------------------------------------

 

 Unit Ranks and Team Stats - Bills

 

Offense
Total Yardage - 2nd (396.4 ypg)
Total Points - 2nd (31.3)
DVOA - 5th
FPI - 4th
Passing Yardage - 3rd (288.8 pg)
Rushing Yardage - 20th (107.7 pg)
Rushing Attempts - 17th (25.7)
3rd Down % - 1st (49.7%)
Red Zone % (TD) - 13th
Sack % - 7th (4.3%)
INT % (best) - 11th (1.85%)
Time of Possession - 3rd (31:45)
Run/Pass % - 39.75/60.25 (13th most passing)
Yards per Completion - 7th (11.3)
Yards per Attempt - 4th (7.8)
Time to Throw - 39th (3.04 secs)
OL Rank (PFF) - 10th

 

Defense
Total Yardage - 14th (352.5 pg)
Total Points - 16th (23.4 pg)
DVOA - 12th
FPI - 6th
Passing Yardage - 13th (232.9 pg)
Rushing Yardage - 17th (119.6 pg)
3rd Down % - 13th (39.8%)
Red Zone % - 28th (65.5%)
Sack % - 14th (6.2%)
INT % - 9th (2.67%)
Blitz % - 8th (35.8%)
Pressure % - 23rd (21%)
AVG Passer Rating Allowed - 5th (86.9)
Takeaways per Game - Tie 3rd (1.6 pg)

 

Misc & STs
SoS - 20th
Total DVOA - 4th
Total FPI - 2nd
ST DVOA - 4th
ST FPI - 5th
Non-Offesnive TDs per Game - Tied (2nd-13th) 0.2 pg
FG Attempts per Game - 10th (2.1)
FG Conversion - 17th (82.4%)
Punts per Game (most) - 32nd (2.6)
Punts Net Yard AVG - 5th (44.0)
Penalties per Game (least) - 27th (6.4)
Opponent Penalties per Game (most) - Tie 18th (5.4)

-------------------------------------------------------

 

vs Same Opponents
Buffalo (Colts)
NYJ: W 27-17 / @W 18-10 (W 36-7)
@LVR: W 30-23 (@ W 44-27)
@TN: L 42-16 (@ W 34-17 / L 45-26)
PS: W 26-15 (@ L 28-24)

 

Note - We did as well or better vs every common opponent except Pitt, which was home for them, road for us, and we should have beaten....
-----------------------------------------------------

 

Schedule vs Top 10s

vs Top 10 Total Os
Colts - 5 (4-1)
Bills - 4 (2-2)
vs Top 10 Passing Os
Colts - 5 (5-0)
Bills - 3 (2-1)
vs Top 10 Rushing Os
Colts - 6 (3-3)
Bills - 5 (3-2)

 

vs Top 10 Total Ds
Colts - 3 (1-2)
Bills - 3 (3-0)
vs Top 10 Passing Ds
Colts - 3 (1-2)
Bills - 7 (6-1)
vs Top 10 Rushing Ds
Colts - 2 (0-2)
Bills - 2 (2-0)

 

Notes on Schedule
Colts - We're better playing against good Os, than good Ds. Colts are 4-1 vs top 10 Os, and 5-0 vs top 10 passing Os.
Bills - Bills have been great vs good Ds, but about average vs top 10 Os. 

--------------------------------------------------------------


Notable Individual Personnel 

 

Colts
Rivers QB
-Passing Yards - 10th
-Completion % - 8th
- Passer rating - 13th
- Deep ball attempts - 18th
- Air yards - 14th
- Money throws - 18th
- Danger plays - 17th
- Interceptable passes - 7th
- Accuracy rating - 7th
- True completion % - 2nd
- Deep ball completion % - 8th
- Pressured completion % - 6th
- Dropped passes - 28th (14)
Taylor RB1
- Rushing yards - 3rd
- Rushing AVG - 10th
- Catch % - 1st
Hines APB1/PR
- Recv Yards - 93rd (all positions)
- Catch % - 8th
- PR AVG - 8th
Hilton WR1
- Recv Yards - 43rd
- YPC - 34th
Pascal WR2
- Recv Yards  - 66th
- YPC - 22nd
Pittman WR3 
- Recv Yards - 89th
- YPC - 55th
- YAC per catch - 6th
MAC TE2
- YPC - 51st
- Catch % - 17th
Rodgers DB/R
- KO Return AVG - 3rd
Blankenship K
- FG % - 21st
Sanchez P
- Yards per Punt - 15th
Leonard WILL
- Tackles - 8th
- TFL - 66th
- PDs - 65th
- FFs - 14th
Walker - MIKE
- Tackles - 51st
Wills SS
- Tackles - 70th
- INTs - 41st
Moore NB
- Tackles - 79th
- PDs - 17th
- INTs - 7th
Okereke MIKE/SAM
- Tackles - 98th
Buckner 3T
- Sacks - 11th
- TFL - 27th
- FFs - 34th
Houston DE
- Sacks - 21st 
- TFL - 48th
Autry DE
- Sacks - 27th
- TFL - 37th
Rhodes CB
- PDs - 17th
- INTs - 41st
Carrie CB
- PDs - 51st
- INTs - 41st
RYS CB
- PDs - 65th
Blackmon S
-INTs - 41st
Odum - S/STs
- STs Tackles - 1st


Bills
Allen QB 
- Total passing yards - 5th
- Completions % - 4th
- Passer Rating - 4th
- Fumbles (most) - 6th
- Totals TDs - 2nd
- Money throws - 4th
- Danger plays - 2nd
- Air Yards - 3rd
- Interceptable passes - 8th
- Deep ball attempts - 6th
- Passing TDs - 5th
- Accuraccy rating - 17th
- RZ completion % - 21st
- Deep Ball completion % - 9th
- Pressured completion % - 14th
- Clean pocket completion % - 4th
- QB carries per game - 5th
- Dropped passes - 16th (19)
Singletary RB1
-Rushing Yards - 25th
- Rushing AVG - 28th
- Catch % - 31st
Diggs WR1
- Recv Yards - 1st
- YPC - 64th
- Catch % - 28th
- Drops - 12th
Beasley WR2
- Recv Yards - 23rd
- YPC - 73rd
- Catch % - 26th
Davis WR3
- Recv Yards - 75th
- YPC - 4th
Brown WR4
- Recv Yards - 97th
- YPC - 28th
McKenzie WR5/R
- Catch % - 3rd
Robers WR/R
- KO Return AVG - 1st
- PR AVG - 9th
- Fumbles - 39th
Knox TE
- YAC per catch - 4th
Bass - K
- FG % - 25th
Bojorquez - P
- Yards per Punt - 1st
Edmunds LB
- Tackles - 14th
Poyer S
- Tackles - 16th
- INTs - 41st
- FFs - 34th
Johnson CB
- Tackles - 49th
- PDs - 65th
Klein LB
- Tackles - 96th
- FFs - 34th
White CB
- PDs - 24th
- INTs - 16th
Wallas CB
- PDs 51st
- INTs - 41st
Marlowe S
- INTs - 41st


 

Youve said everything ive been preaching my friend. Great job! As i said before i love what KC did against the Bills defensively and i think we should copy some of it. Youre right in line with my thinking. Allen will kill you if you allow free releases and tons of off coverage.

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13 minutes ago, krunk said:

Youve said everything ive been preaching my friend. Great job! As i said before i love what KC did against the Bills defensively and i think we should copy some of it. Youre right in line with my thinking. Allen will kill you if you allow free releases and tons of off coverage.

Yup. Need to interrupt the timing. I think it's #2 in terms of importance overall, and #1 purely from a D standpoint. Need to punch them in the mouth at the LOS. RYS is good at that and comes from a man system. We don't really use him like that, which has been part of his problems (playing off yet still trying to be a cover guy). With RYS out, assuming Moore will move to CB2 and Carrie to NB. I like Carrie at NB more than I like Moore going to CB2. Hope he's up for the task. He struggled a lot earlier in the year when we made that move. 

 

#1 overall from me is great balance on O. Hope Reich is up to the task. Need a few early well timed and unpredictable (1st down or 2nd and short) deep shots when they begin to cheat up, and overall great balance in play calling. If Reich is stubborn and slants one way (run or pass), I don't like our chances.

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Colts keys to victory...

Offense: The Bill's are gonna be ready for the run game. They will probably stack the box a lot and play press coverage to force Rivers to go deep. We should use the short pass game with screens, slants and outs to spread them out sideline to sideline. This will keep them wide to allow JT to have better lanes and beat the stacked front. We will need good balance with the pass and rush to win this. The Oline and receievers need to have a great blocking game, and Phil needs to read the field not force it.

Defense: We have a great run D and I believe we get it done there. We dont have the secondary to compete with their receivers. Flus may want to mix some press in to the D early and see how it goes. We dont want to play to soft of a zone and get carved up on 5 to 10 yard routes. Most importantly we win this by containing Allen in the pocket and not allowing him to extend plays with his legs. Got to bring some good blitzes and get to Allen early to rattle him and his psyche.

We win this game by dominating the trenches hands down. Got to control the clock and win the turn over battle.

 

Bold Prediction: I believe we shock the NFL and beat Allen up. We get a strip sack and pick. Colts win 26-20. 1 rushing TD. 1 receiving TD. With 3 Rodrigo FGs.

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16 minutes ago, TimetobringDfence! said:

Colts keys to victory...

Offense: The Bill's are gonna be ready for the run game. They will probably stack the box a lot and play press coverage to force Rivers to go deep. We should use the short pass game with screens, slants and outs to spread them out sideline to sideline. This will keep them wide to allow JT to have better lanes and beat the stacked front. We will need good balance with the pass and rush to win this. The Oline and receievers need to have a great blocking game, and Phil needs to read the field not force it.

Defense: We have a great run D and I believe we get it done there. We dont have the secondary to compete with their receivers. We win this by containing Allen in the pocket and not allowing him to extend plays with his legs. Got to bring some good blitzes and get to Allen early to rattle him and his psyche.

We win this game by dominating the trenches hands down. Got to control the clock and win the turn over battle.

 

Bold Prediction: I believe we shock the NFL and beat Allen up. We get a strip sack and pick. Colts win 26-20. 1 rushing TD. 1 receiving TD. With 3 Rodrigo FGs.

I agree with most of this, but have some different takes based on what I read, and knowing the Colts O and D like I do.

 

I do think the Bills will crowd the LOS some, but not as much as against some teams. They are in nickel about 70ish % of the time. I can see Reich trying to expose that with our running game when only 2 LBs (which is most of the time). And I think rushing the edge is the best way to expose that. Rivers is also one of the best in the league at throwing to different guys. We have 9 guys over 200 yards, 10 over 100. Note, Johnson was 7th on that list, and Wilkins 10th.

 

In short though, against Rivers, they can't do what they did vs the Pats and other teams, which is provide a bunch of help vs the #1 WR, or a guy like Eddleman on 3rd downs. They'll have to stay honest or Rivers will find another guy if they help too much. They do a great job in showing a bunch of different looks, and bring help from a lot of different places. Regardless, I think "size" is the best way to exploit that. I'd love to see a lot of 2 TE sets + Pittman. This would be an excellent game to take the training wheels off Patmon too. There's just no way their 5 little DBs can handle a bunch of 6-4+ guys. The only guy in their back 7 with good size if Edmunds who towers at 6-5 at ILB. But he can't cover multiple bigs.

 

I'm also not too worried about our OL this game. Their DL is just not that good. They blitz a lot, yet have a very average sack rate. That should open them up for the right play calls (that assumes Reich makes those calls and adjustments).

 

I agree we need pressure, but if you look at their losses, Buffalo had very few sacks. I do want to see more blitzing than our near league low 17%. That said, I think our DBs can do better than you think, IF ALLOWED to play tighter. Their WRs are small, and we need to smack them at the LOS and get them off their timing. Allen has almost a league high Time to Throw, and any disruption to the WRs, or early pressure will help. If we go soft and don't step up the blitz, he'll kill us. 

 

 

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Just don’t abandoned the run. Arizona was down 23-9 and kept pounding and won the game while rushing for over 210.

 

Want to win the game? Dominate.

Leonard and Buckner and Moore need to dominate on all three levels.

Rivers and Taylor and TY on O. Although I expect Pittman balls out in his first playoff game. 

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1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

I agree with most of this, but have some different takes based on what I read, and knowing the Colts O and D like I do.

 

I do think the Bills will crowd the LOS some, but not as much as against some teams. They are in nickel about 70ish % of the time. I can see Reich trying to expose that with our running game when only 2 LBs (which is most of the time). And I think rushing the edge is the best way to expose that. Rivers is also one of the best in the league at throwing to different guys. We have 9 guys over 200 yards, 10 over 100. Note, Johnson was 7th on that list, and Wilkins 10th.

 

In short though, against Rivers, they can't do what they did vs the Pats and other teams, which is provide a bunch of help vs the #1 WR, or a guy like Eddleman on 3rd downs. They'll have to stay honest or Rivers will find another guy if they help too much. They do a great job in showing a bunch of different looks, and bring help from a lot of different places. Regardless, I think "size" is the best way to exploit that. I'd love to see a lot of 2 TE sets + Pittman. This would be an excellent game to take the training wheels off Patmon too. There's just no way their 5 little DBs can handle a bunch of 6-4+ guys. The only guy in their back 7 with good size if Edmunds who towers at 6-5 at ILB. But he can't cover multiple bigs.

 

I'm also not too worried about our OL this game. Their DL is just not that good. They blitz a lot, yet have a very average sack rate. That should open them up for the right play calls (that assumes Reich makes those calls and adjustments).

 

I agree we need pressure, but if you look at their losses, Buffalo had very few sacks. I do want to see more blitzing than our near league low 17%. That said, I think our DBs can do better than you think, IF ALLOWED to play tighter. Their WRs are small, and we need to smack them at the LOS and get them off their timing. Allen has almost a league high Time to Throw, and any disruption to the WRs, or early pressure will help. If we go soft and don't step up the blitz, he'll kill us. 

 

 

I'm glad to hear you side of their D I honestly wasnt aware they are Nickle heavy with two linebackers. That pushes are need to run heavy. I am a little nervous about pressing to heavy and being beat deep. We get torched too often. I feel like if our dline doesn't get to Allen hard we wont slow them down. I read an article saying a smart move for us is to put our number 2 CB on Diggs close with a safety shadowing a few yards deeper. Allowing out 1 CB to take their 2 reciever on alone.

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Just now, TimetobringDfence! said:

I'm glad to hear you side of their D I honestly wasnt aware they are Nickle heavy with two linebackers. That pushes are need to run heavy. I am a little nervous about pressing to heavy and being beat deep. We get torched too often. I feel like if our dline doesn't get to Allen hard we wont slow them down. I read an article saying a smart move for us is to put our number 2 CB on Diggs close with a safety shadowing a few yards deeper. Allowing out 1 CB to take their 2 reciever on alone.

Either way I feel like if we game plan good, and Frank keeps Rivers in game management mindset we can win. I think Buckner and the D front will take care of business. I believe it comes down to if we can control the clock on offense by being the deceptive tortoise instead of trying to be the predictible rabbit.

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3 minutes ago, TimetobringDfence! said:

I'm glad to hear you side of their D I honestly wasnt aware they are Nickle heavy with two linebackers. That pushes are need to run heavy. I am a little nervous about pressing to heavy and being beat deep. We get torched too often. I feel like if our dline doesn't get to Allen hard we wont slow them down. I read an article saying a smart move for us is to put our number 2 CB on Diggs close with a safety shadowing a few yards deeper. Allowing out 1 CB to take their 2 reciever on alone.

It will be interesting to see Buffalo's strategy on D. They sold out vs TN and shut Henry down. Tannehill made them pay. They did the opposite vs Mahomes and Murray, and the RBs made them pay. Since we have a pretty balanced O (both units ranked 11th), not sure what Buf will do.

 

Regardless, I think it's a no brainer to given whoever is on Diggs some S help. Guessing we'll play a lot of nickel, probably the most we've played this year along with some Dime.

1 minute ago, TimetobringDfence! said:

Either way I feel like if we game plan good, and Frank keeps Rivers in game management mindset we can win. I think Buckner and the D front will take care of business. I believe it comes down to if we can control the clock on offense by being the deceptive tortoise instead of trying to be the predictible rabbit.

IMO, game manager mode is the worst thing we can do.

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1 hour ago, TheNextGM said:

Just don’t abandoned the run. Arizona was down 23-9 and kept pounding and won the game while rushing for over 210.

 

Want to win the game? Dominate.

Leonard and Buckner and Moore need to dominate on all three levels.

Rivers and Taylor and TY on O. Although I expect Pittman balls out in his first playoff game. 

 

I don't want to abandon the run either. TN had to, at least as part of the meat and potatoes compared to his normal carries. They made the right adjustments and killed them via Tannehill's efficiency, and Henry's RZ.

 

TY could have a nice game, but I'd dial up a lot of big sets to exploit their nickel D. I'd feed Pittman, MAC, and Doyle early and often. Those guys could knock their little DBs around. It would also be good for our running game (having those big guys in to block when not targeted). 

 

Roll Big on O... 

Smack their WRs on D...

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1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

I agree with most of this, but have some different takes based on what I read, and knowing the Colts O and D like I do.

 

I do think the Bills will crowd the LOS some, but not as much as against some teams. They are in nickel about 70ish % of the time. I can see Reich trying to expose that with our running game when only 2 LBs (which is most of the time). And I think rushing the edge is the best way to expose that. Rivers is also one of the best in the league at throwing to different guys. We have 9 guys over 200 yards, 10 over 100. Note, Johnson was 7th on that list, and Wilkins 10th.

 

In short though, against Rivers, they can't do what they did vs the Pats and other teams, which is provide a bunch of help vs the #1 WR, or a guy like Eddleman on 3rd downs. They'll have to stay honest or Rivers will find another guy if they help too much. They do a great job in showing a bunch of different looks, and bring help from a lot of different places. Regardless, I think "size" is the best way to exploit that. I'd love to see a lot of 2 TE sets + Pittman. This would be an excellent game to take the training wheels off Patmon too. There's just no way their 5 little DBs can handle a bunch of 6-4+ guys. The only guy in their back 7 with good size if Edmunds who towers at 6-5 at ILB. But he can't cover multiple bigs.

 

I'm also not too worried about our OL this game. Their DL is just not that good. They blitz a lot, yet have a very average sack rate. That should open them up for the right play calls (that assumes Reich makes those calls and adjustments).

 

I agree we need pressure, but if you look at their losses, Buffalo had very few sacks. I do want to see more blitzing than our near league low 17%. That said, I think our DBs can do better than you think, IF ALLOWED to play tighter. Their WRs are small, and we need to smack them at the LOS and get them off their timing. Allen has almost a league high Time to Throw, and any disruption to the WRs, or early pressure will help. If we go soft and don't step up the blitz, he'll kill us. 

 

 

Remember years ago when we had Ron Meeks and Leslie Frazier and we faced the Chargers at the RCA dome? We had those little DBs and Rivers, Vincent Jackson, and Chris Chambers killed us with all that height.

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11 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

It will be interesting to see Buffalo's strategy on D. They sold out vs TN and shut Henry down. Tannehill made them pay. They did the opposite vs Mahomes and Murray, and the RBs made them pay. Since we have a pretty balanced O (both units ranked 11th), not sure what Buf will do.

 

Regardless, I think it's a no brainer to given whoever is on Diggs some S help. Guessing we'll play a lot of nickel, probably the most we've played this year along with some Dime.

IMO, game manager mode is the worst thing we can do.

Rivers is great at reading the blitz, I just get worried about his deep throw accuracy if coverage is decent. He has a tendency to want to hit a big play when he shouldn't. I hope short to mid range throws along with a good run game controlling the clock will be enough to win. I dont like the idea of a shootout game.

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I think we are going to win the battle on both lines Offense and defense. You have a Bills D line that doesnt get much pressure going against a Colt line that doesnt give much pressure up. And when they resort to blitzing its going to put them in a predicament bc Rivers is rarely fooled by the Blitz.  Not only that but they arent even good stopping the run. Im optomistic that we will put together some nice drives that keep the Bills offense on the sideline. Which will help to maintain a reasonable score. When Buffalo is on offense i like our D line against theirs as well. If we can slow the release of their receivers we should get a few sacks and pressures.

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8 minutes ago, krunk said:

Remember years ago when we had Ron Meeks and Leslie Frazier and we faced the Chargers at the RCA dome? We had those little DBs and Rivers, Vincent Jackson, and Chris Chambers killed us with all that height.

I've always been a fan of attacking nickel/dime with bigs. Both in the passing and running game. Give me 2 TEs terrorizing the little guys with slants and on the perimeter, and TEs running a block on the edge to free JT or Hines for a long run.

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10 minutes ago, TimetobringDfence! said:

Rivers is great at reading the blitz, I just get worried about his deep throw accuracy if coverage is decent. He has a tendency to want to hit a big play when he shouldn't. I hope short to mid range throws along with a good run game controlling the clock will be enough to win. I dont like the idea of a shootout game.

Rivers doesn't throw deep much, but is top 10 in deep ball accuracy. I don't worry much early in games when we take a planned shot on early downs. I do worry late in games, when we're down, and behind the chains. He's much more successful when it's not obvious. 

 

Buffalo is not a team IMO where you can expect to have a low scoring slug fest. It certainly could turn out that way, but only if Allen is INT'd from us playing tight. And if we're true to form, we'll play soft a lot, and Allen will move the chains.... making us have to win it with O.

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2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I've always been a fan of attacking nickel/dime with bigs. Both in the passing and running game. Give me 2 TEs terrorizing the little guys with slants and on the perimeter, and TEs running a block on the edge to free JT or Hines for a long run.

I noticed the size of Buffalos guys almost immediately once i started looking at the team.

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5 minutes ago, krunk said:

I think we are going to win the battle on both lines Offense and defense. You have a Bills D line that doesnt get much pressure going against a Colt line that doesnt give much pressure up. And when they resort to blitzing its going to put them in a predicament bc Rivers is rarely fooled by the Blitz.  Not only that but they arent even good stopping the run. Im optomistic that we will put together some nice drives that keep the Bills offense on the sideline. Which will help to maintain a reasonable score. When Buffalo is on offense i like our D line against theirs as well. If we can slow the release of their receivers we should get a few sacks and pressures.

Slowing the release of WRs, is a big ask given how soft we play... I'd love to see us change that this game.

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5 minutes ago, krunk said:

I think we are going to win the battle on both lines Offense and defense. You have a Bills D line that doesnt get much pressure going against a Colt line that doesnt give much pressure up. And when they resort to blitzing its going to put them in a predicament bc Rivers is rarely fooled by the Blitz.  Not only that but they arent even good stopping the run. Im optomistic that we will put together some nice drives that keep the Bills offense on the sideline. Which will help to maintain a reasonable score. When Buffalo is on offense i like our D line against theirs as well. If we can slow the release of their receivers we should get a few sacks and pressures.

We match up with the Bill's better than most teams. Outside of our weaker pass coverage. We just need the Dline to counter that with containment and pressure.

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2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Rivers doesn't throw deep much, but is top 10 in deep ball accuracy. I don't worry much early in games when we take a planned shot on early downs. I do worry late in games, when we're down, and behind the chains. He's much more successful when it's not obvious. 

 

Buffalo is not a team IMO where you can expect to have a low scoring slug fest. It certainly could turn out that way, but only if Allen is INT'd from us playing tight. And if we're true to form, we'll play soft a lot, and Allen will move the chains.... making us have to win it with O.

Your take is spot on. I hope Buckner and the front seven find a way to keep Allen in the pocket as much as possible, while creating the pressure to collapse in on him. If we give him time he will carve our secondary up. 

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2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Slowing the release of WRs, is a big ask given how soft we play... I'd love to see us change that this game.

If Flus is smart he will incorporate more of it. Just like he did after that Jax loss. When we played Minn he had everybody pressed up at the line and we did much better. Im not even calling for more Man to Man. I just want more press coverage and slowing people down even if its zone coverage.

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17 minutes ago, TimetobringDfence! said:

Your take is spot on. I hope Buckner and the front seven find a way to keep Allen in the pocket as much as possible, while creating the pressure to collapse in on him. If we give him time he will carve our secondary up. 

I think our run D is good enough that we can gamble on the pass D a bit more. I'd like to see a bit more stunting in general, but also a bit more blitzing. 17% is just too low. Not saying go all in like Pitt or Balt, but need to be closer to the average. Their rush O is capable, but it's only decent when set up by the run. I don't see us selling out so much that it impedes our ability to stop the run. They just don't have real bruisers or home run threats. Singletary is breaking away at 4.66. He's productive, but no overly a pile mover either. Zack Moss is 4.6s too. 

15 minutes ago, krunk said:

If Flus is smart he will incorporate more of it. Just like he did after that Jax loss. When we played Minn he had everybody pressed up at the line and we did much better. Im not even calling for more Man to Man. I just want more press coverage and slowing people down even if its zone coverage.

Yet we came out last week playing tight, then went soft too early again and let them back in. I just don't get it.

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5 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Way too much below, but summarized a decent amount for the lazy and non-stat heads. Enjoy.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

TLDR Summary 

 

Bills Defense
Decent overall, but not great in any facet. No player with over 5 sacks. They blitz at a top 10 rate yet only yeild an average sack %. They do get a fair amount of INTs, but no DB has the lion's share. White is very good CB and is headed to the PB along with Edmunds (LB). Vs the run, they did a good job of limiting Henry, but Tannehill threw 3 TDs against them. IIRC, they really sold out vs the run that game. NE rushed well against them both games. AZ also ran very well against them.

 

Bills Offense 
Great passing attack. Allen can deal it around, but he has two favs (Diggs and Beasley). One of the best WR units in the NFL for sure. They don't throw to TE or RB too much, and Allen can hurt you long or short. Diggs oblique injury could be huge. He said he was OK yesterday after missing Wendesday practice (he was LP Tuesday), but obliques can be tricky. Beasley, their WR2 missed last week's game, and was a DNP again Tuesday. Not too worried about the running game. Decent, but it's set up by the pass. They haven't had a 100 yard rusher all year in any games. Allen was the leading rusher 4 times...

 

Bills Special Teams
Roberts (Pro Bowl selection) and McKenzie are both electric as returners. Roberts has had achilles and back injuries lately, and McKenzie is on this week's injury report. Either can take it to the house at any time though. McKenzie took it to the house just last weekend.

-------------------------------------------------------------

 

Keys to the game on defense
Keep Allen under 300. All three losses have that in common. Allen will kill you long or short if you play too soft. I'm sure we'll play a decent amount of C2 zone to limit the deep stuff (which he's very good at), but if we give too much cushion, it could be a death sentence. IMO, Flus will have to gamble more this game. Blitz more, and play tighter zone and some man. Allen is 4th best completion % with a clean pocket, but drops to average when pressured. He also has one of the highest time to throws. We don't have to worry much about their run, so gambling a bit on pass D should be doable. If Diggs is at full force, that will limit their entire passing game IMO. If they are without Beasley, their short game will be impacted. McKenzie, also hobled now, caught 2 TDs in his place last week. Davis is their only WR taller than 6ft, but Allen loves all his short speedy guys. Need to be physical with these small WRs at the line and take them off their timing. If you let them get clean breaks from a ton of cushion, I just don't like our chances. It's also worth noting that Allen laid an egg vs a very bad pass D last year in the Wildcard (Houston's pass D was 29th).


Key to the game on offense
Balance is key. Bills are only 2-2 vs top 10 total Os. They are very good vs one dimentional passing Os, and OK vs teams with one dimentional rushing Os. They play mostly nickel (4-2-5) so Taylor should have success. They limited Henry, but Tannehill burned them for selling out. We need to do the same. Only one of their DBs is over 6 foot. Only one of the LBs (Edumunds) is over 6-1. Kill them with size, and give MAC, Pittman, and Doyle a good share of targets. They are good limiting deep shots, but we should be able to be successful short to intermediate. A deep shot or two should be early/timely and keep them from selling out too much. Send a speedy WR or Hines on a go route on 1st down or second and short to keep them on their heels. They blitz at a top 10 rate, so screens should be dialed up regularly. Mario Addison is a weakspot (DE), so I'd love to see both Hines and Taylor hit his edge. Both RBs should have success catching too. Hughes, their best DE, is the only DL that grades out well via PFF. I expect Taylor to do well rushing the interior, but Edmunds at MLB likely won't allow many long breaks.

-----------------------------------------------------

 

Bills Pro Bowlers (*starter)
Allen QB
Diggs* WR
Edmunds LB
White* CB
Roberts* Returns

-------------------------------------------------------------- 

 

Injury Report (starters)

 

Bills 
Diggs WR1 (oblique) - LP/DNP/LP - Questionable
Beasley WR2 (knee) - DNP/DNP/LP - Questionable
McKenzie WR/RS (Ankle) - LP/LP/FP - 
Feliciano RG (knee) - FP/FP/FP

 

Colts
Buckner (ankle) - DNP/DNP/LP - Questionable
Holden (ankel) - DNP/DNP/DNP - Out
RYS (concussion) - DNP/DNP/DNP - Out
Carrie (ankle/shoulder) - LP/FP/FP - 
Taylor (shoulder) - LP/LP/LP -
Willis (concussion) - FP/FP/FP

--------------------------------------------------------------

 

Unit Ranks and Team Stats - Colts


Offense
Total Yardage - 10th (378.1 ypg)
Total Points - 9th (28.2)
DVOA - 12th
FPI - 12th
Passing Yardage - 11th (253.3 pg)
Rushing Yardage - 11th (124.8 pg)
Rushing Attempts - 10th (28.7)
3rd Down % - 22nd (39.6%)
Red Zone % (TD) - 18th
Sack % - 3rd (3.7%)
INT % (best) - 14th (1.99%)
Time of Possession - 10th (30:58)
Run/Pass % - 44.5/55.5 (25th most passing)
Yards per Completion - 11th (10.9)
Yards per Attempt - 9th (7.3)
Time to Throw - 6th 2.52 secs (lowest)
OL Rank (PFF) - 7th

 

Defense
Total Yardage - 8th (332.1 pg)
Total Points - 10th (22.6 pg)
DVOA - 7th
FPI - 12th
Passing Yardage - 20th (241.6 pg)
Rushing Yardage - 2nd (90.5 pg)
3rd Down % - 19th (42.4%)
Red Zone % - 15th (61.5%)
Sack % - 11th (6.6%)
INT % - 8th (2.67%)
Blitz % - 31st (17.1%)
Pressure % - 13th (23.1%)
AVG Passer Rating Allowed - 12th (90.5)
Takeaways per Game - Tie 3rd (1.6 pg)

 

Misc & STs
SoS - 32nd
Total DVOA - 10th
Total FPI - 9th
ST DVOA - 10th
ST FPI - 8th
Non-Offesnive TDs per Game - 1st 0.4 pg
FG Attempts per Game - 4th (2.3)
FG Conversion - 14th (86.5%)
Punts per Game (most) - Tie 26th (3.1)
Punts Net Yard AVG - Tie 22nd (39.6)
Penalties per Game (least) - 19th (5.9)

Opponent Penalties per Game (most) - Tie 18th (5.4)
 

-----------------------------------------------------------

 

 Unit Ranks and Team Stats - Bills

 

Offense
Total Yardage - 2nd (396.4 ypg)
Total Points - 2nd (31.3)
DVOA - 5th
FPI - 4th
Passing Yardage - 3rd (288.8 pg)
Rushing Yardage - 20th (107.7 pg)
Rushing Attempts - 17th (25.7)
3rd Down % - 1st (49.7%)
Red Zone % (TD) - 13th
Sack % - 7th (4.3%)
INT % (best) - 11th (1.85%)
Time of Possession - 3rd (31:45)
Run/Pass % - 39.75/60.25 (13th most passing)
Yards per Completion - 7th (11.3)
Yards per Attempt - 4th (7.8)
Time to Throw - 39th (3.04 secs)
OL Rank (PFF) - 10th

 

Defense
Total Yardage - 14th (352.5 pg)
Total Points - 16th (23.4 pg)
DVOA - 12th
FPI - 6th
Passing Yardage - 13th (232.9 pg)
Rushing Yardage - 17th (119.6 pg)
3rd Down % - 13th (39.8%)
Red Zone % - 28th (65.5%)
Sack % - 14th (6.2%)
INT % - 9th (2.67%)
Blitz % - 8th (35.8%)
Pressure % - 23rd (21%)
AVG Passer Rating Allowed - 5th (86.9)
Takeaways per Game - Tie 3rd (1.6 pg)

 

Misc & STs
SoS - 20th
Total DVOA - 4th
Total FPI - 2nd
ST DVOA - 4th
ST FPI - 5th
Non-Offesnive TDs per Game - Tied (2nd-13th) 0.2 pg
FG Attempts per Game - 10th (2.1)
FG Conversion - 17th (82.4%)
Punts per Game (most) - 32nd (2.6)
Punts Net Yard AVG - 5th (44.0)
Penalties per Game (least) - 27th (6.4)
Opponent Penalties per Game (most) - Tie 18th (5.4)

-------------------------------------------------------

 

vs Same Opponents
Buffalo (Colts)
NYJ: W 27-17 / @W 18-10 (W 36-7)
@LVR: W 30-23 (@ W 44-27)
@TN: L 42-16 (@ W 34-17 / L 45-26)
PS: W 26-15 (@ L 28-24)

 

Note - We did as well or better vs every common opponent except Pitt, which was home for them, road for us, and we should have beaten....
-----------------------------------------------------

 

Schedule vs Top 10s

vs Top 10 Total Os
Colts - 5 (4-1)
Bills - 4 (2-2)
vs Top 10 Passing Os
Colts - 5 (5-0)
Bills - 3 (2-1)
vs Top 10 Rushing Os
Colts - 6 (3-3)
Bills - 5 (3-2)

 

vs Top 10 Total Ds
Colts - 3 (1-2)
Bills - 3 (3-0)
vs Top 10 Passing Ds
Colts - 3 (1-2)
Bills - 7 (6-1)
vs Top 10 Rushing Ds
Colts - 2 (0-2)
Bills - 2 (2-0)

 

Notes on Schedule
Colts - We're better playing against good Os, than good Ds. Colts are 4-1 vs top 10 Os, and 5-0 vs top 10 passing Os.
Bills - Bills have been great vs good Ds, but about average vs top 10 Os. 

--------------------------------------------------------------


Notable Individual Personnel 

 

Colts
Rivers QB
-Passing Yards - 10th
-Completion % - 8th
- Passer rating - 13th
- Deep ball attempts - 18th
- Air yards - 14th
- Money throws - 18th
- Danger plays - 17th
- Interceptable passes - 7th
- Accuracy rating - 7th
- True completion % - 2nd
- Deep ball completion % - 8th
- Pressured completion % - 6th
- Dropped passes - 28th (14)
Taylor RB1
- Rushing yards - 3rd
- Rushing AVG - 10th
- Catch % - 1st
Hines APB1/PR
- Recv Yards - 93rd (all positions)
- Catch % - 8th
- PR AVG - 8th
Hilton WR1
- Recv Yards - 43rd
- YPC - 34th
Pascal WR2
- Recv Yards  - 66th
- YPC - 22nd
Pittman WR3 
- Recv Yards - 89th
- YPC - 55th
- YAC per catch - 6th
MAC TE2
- YPC - 51st
- Catch % - 17th
Rodgers DB/R
- KO Return AVG - 3rd
Blankenship K
- FG % - 21st
Sanchez P
- Yards per Punt - 15th
Leonard WILL
- Tackles - 8th
- TFL - 66th
- PDs - 65th
- FFs - 14th
Walker - MIKE
- Tackles - 51st
Wills SS
- Tackles - 70th
- INTs - 41st
Moore NB
- Tackles - 79th
- PDs - 17th
- INTs - 7th
Okereke MIKE/SAM
- Tackles - 98th
Buckner 3T
- Sacks - 11th
- TFL - 27th
- FFs - 34th
Houston DE
- Sacks - 21st 
- TFL - 48th
Autry DE
- Sacks - 27th
- TFL - 37th
Rhodes CB
- PDs - 17th
- INTs - 41st
Carrie CB
- PDs - 51st
- INTs - 41st
RYS CB
- PDs - 65th
Blackmon S
-INTs - 41st
Odum - S/STs
- STs Tackles - 1st


Bills
Allen QB 
- Total passing yards - 5th
- Completions % - 4th
- Passer Rating - 4th
- Fumbles (most) - 6th
- Totals TDs - 2nd
- Money throws - 4th
- Danger plays - 2nd
- Air Yards - 3rd
- Interceptable passes - 8th
- Deep ball attempts - 6th
- Passing TDs - 5th
- Accuraccy rating - 17th
- RZ completion % - 21st
- Deep Ball completion % - 9th
- Pressured completion % - 14th
- Clean pocket completion % - 4th
- QB carries per game - 5th
- Dropped passes - 16th (19)
Singletary RB1
-Rushing Yards - 25th
- Rushing AVG - 28th
- Catch % - 31st
Diggs WR1
- Recv Yards - 1st
- YPC - 64th
- Catch % - 28th
- Drops - 12th
Beasley WR2
- Recv Yards - 23rd
- YPC - 73rd
- Catch % - 26th
Davis WR3
- Recv Yards - 75th
- YPC - 4th
Brown WR4
- Recv Yards - 97th
- YPC - 28th
McKenzie WR5/R
- Catch % - 3rd
Robers WR/R
- KO Return AVG - 1st
- PR AVG - 9th
- Fumbles - 39th
Knox TE
- YAC per catch - 4th
Bass - K
- FG % - 25th
Bojorquez - P
- Yards per Punt - 1st
Edmunds LB
- Tackles - 14th
Poyer S
- Tackles - 16th
- INTs - 41st
- FFs - 34th
Johnson CB
- Tackles - 49th
- PDs - 65th
Klein LB
- Tackles - 96th
- FFs - 34th
White CB
- PDs - 24th
- INTs - 16th
Wallas CB
- PDs 51st
- INTs - 41st
Marlowe S
- INTs - 41st


 

Listen man, I’m too drunk to read this all.  Are we gonna win or not?

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After looking at all the numbers you listed EastStreet IMO we are not out matched like most of the media and a few forum members seem to think.

Especially when I look at the teams we both played. 

All I can really say is it's the playoffs. Anything can happen. 

Last year no one gave the Titans a chance against Baltimore and we know how that turned out. 

 

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6 minutes ago, SpanosSucks said:

Listen man, I’m too drunk to read this all.  Are we gonna win or not?

Sober up you lush (as I pour myself a coctail)..... 

 

Colts 34, Bills 30

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11 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I went Colts by 1-6, Allen will have between 250-299, and great balance on O. Great stuff as usual @EastStreet.

Thanks  brother.

 

Same as me on the poll stuff. 

6 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I have Colts 24-23.

I could see that if we INT Allen. I just don't see us being that aggressive with the DBs though. 

I'd take that though.

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17 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

After looking at all the numbers you listed EastStreet IMO we are not out matched like most of the media and a few forum members seem to think.

Especially when I look at the teams we both played. 

All I can really say is it's the playoffs. Anything can happen. 

Last year no one gave the Titans a chance in Baltimore and we know how that turned out. 

 

IIRC, I called the Balt/TN game last year as I thought it was a good matchup for TN. 

 

As far as this game goes, It's not a bad match up for us, but our Pass D is now ranked 20th, and their Pass O is ranked top 5... We have to beat them in the other areas. We have the O to do it, not sure we have the D to do it. But it's not a huge mismatch IMO. 

 

If you look at our common opponents, it doesn't look bad at all. The only thing that stinks, is that it's on the road. But with no fans, not so bad.

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