Predict the odd team out (Merge)

[TheNextGM]

10 minutes ago, Lancer1 said:

That would be the case even if all those teams won, as long as Tennessee loses and they'll be playing the same time as us.

Very little chance Tennessee loses.

I was saying if Miami or Cleveland loses, Colts will know for sure win and they are in. Would give them a boost.

[lollygagger8]

Colts 

[luv_pony_express]

31 minutes ago, Lancer1 said:

I wonder if these oddsmakers are betting their own money, or simply "speculating".

 

Are you suggesting oddsmakers have an agenda -- I mean, other than establishing realistic odds?

 

Obviously, odds will adjust if/when the news does.  But it's hardly just the oddsmakers who seem to believe that PIT will rest their starters.  A number of stories are out there to that effect.

[Lancer1]

7 minutes ago, TheNextGM said:

Very little chance Tennessee loses.

I was saying if Miami or Cleveland loses, Colts will know for sure win and they are in. Would give them a boost.

I think the opportunity to win the AFC South & a home playoff game would give them a bigger boost, and as close to beating us as Houston came twice, I'm definitely not counting them out.

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

4 hours ago, pacolts56 said:

The Texans are playing for pride ..... 

 

Deshaun Watson and Co. stun Tennessee.... and we beat the Jags and win the AFC South.

 

 

 

 

I have a feeling this is how it goes down!

[Lancer1]

9 minutes ago, luv_pony_express said:

 

Are you suggesting oddsmakers have an agenda -- I mean, other than establishing realistic odds?

 

Obviously, odds will adjust if/when the news does.  But it's hardly just the oddsmakers who seem to believe that PIT will rest their starters.  A number of stories are out there to that effect.

I consider all those stories as mere speculation, and will continue to unless I hear it being said by Art Rooney II, Kevin Colbert or Mike Tomlin.

[Lancer1]

3 minutes ago, Horse Shoe Heaven said:

I have a feeling this is how it goes down!

I do too - can you imagine the lift our guys would get if in the 3rd Quarter they look up at the scoreboard and it reads something like “Houston 45, Tennessee 21”? 

[IinD]

Sucks to get this far into the season and potentially not make it in, but nothing we can do.

 

Let's hope it isn't the last game of the year.

[holeymoley99]

Tenn D is bad, Watson did a lot vs us and we are a much better squad all the way around then Tenn. Last night knowing a win clinched vs a Green bay squad we beat Houston couldnt do a thing, they quit in fact.

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

3 hours ago, Stephen said:

That would be the worse case scenario. The other would  be if everything  goes right and the jags beat us

That ain't happening, several Colts already talking about this being a revenge game, plus the bad taste in there mouth from the Pitt game. I believe the Colts are going to kick the % out of Jacksonville!! How this rest of the games shake out IDK but my guess is someone losses & Colts get in!! Hopefully Tenn. Just got a feeling Houston does us a solid!!

[GRUMPY OLD MAN]

4 hours ago, Stephen said:

They still have no run game.  Can't  understand  how we lost to them

i can, we quit running the ball

[NewColtsFan]

For what it’s worth....    the computer analysis shows the Colts STILL with an 80 percent chance of making the post-season.

 

We need to win, while just ONE of FOUR teams has to lose.   Ten, Balt, Cle, or Miami.  
The two who are favored NOT to make it are the Dolphins or the Browns.   They both have much, MUCH lower odds of making the playoffs. 

Did I mention our odds are 80 percent?

Miami’s odds are 35 percent.

Cleveland's odds 24 percent. 
 

If your response is “who cares, we’re just going to lose in the post-season” then I can’t help you.  

[Orioles22]

1 hour ago, Lancer1 said:

They almost beat us twice, losing both games on ill timed fumbles from our 2 yard line – with Watson under center and Watt on defense,  I give Houston a good chance to beat anyone they play, especially a divisional rival.

That's exactly how I feel. I just hope they are at full strength.

[coltsva]

The odds are fine and dandy, but there are other variables at play here:

pitt resting starters?

bills resting starters? 

texans sitting Watson?

 

although I think Bengals give Ravens a fight, I’d hate to rely on that being the best chance for a loss

 

 

 

 

[chad72]

Hey, by game time, we will know where the Dolphins, Browns and Ravens stand. I for once am glad we are in the 4:25 pm ET slot.

[coltsva]

4 minutes ago, chad72 said:

Hey, by game time, we will know where the Dolphins, Browns and Ravens stand. I for once am glad we are in the 4:25 pm ET slot.

Right with you on this!

[The Fish]

6 minutes ago, coltsva said:

The odds are fine and dandy, but there are other variables at play here:

pitt resting starters?

bills resting starters? 

texans sitting Watson?

 

although I think Bengals give Ravens a fight, I’d hate to rely on that being the best chance for a loss

 

 

 

 

Correct and I saw a thread breaking down chances that didn't reflect the 80% number that's out there, it was more like 18% chance at the 4, 23% for the 5. Not that it matters so much what the odds are on this. 

 

There's a real chance they lost their playoff game yesterday. I know my mood about it reflects it..

 

 

[coltsva]

1 minute ago, The Fish said:

Correct and I saw a thread breaking down chances that didn't reflect the 80% number that's out there, it was more like 18% chance at the 4, 23% for the 5. Not that it matters so much what the odds are on this. 

 

There's a real chance they lost their playoff game yesterday. I know my mood about it reflects it..

 

 

Same here, and the sinking feeling that the opportunity is gone (even though it’s not), is going to increase each day. 
 

probably a good thing, because by Sunday I’ll be prepared for all 5 teams winning.

[luv_pony_express]

5 minutes ago, coltsva said:

The odds are fine and dandy, but there are other variables at play here:

pitt resting starters?

bills resting starters? 

texans sitting Watson?

 

although I think Bengals give Ravens a fight, I’d hate to rely on that being the best chance for a loss

 

 

 

 

What are the odds the Texans would sit Watson?  I guess more than zero.  But how much more?

[Indeee]

The locks, IMO

 

1) Browns beat Steelers. Tomlin rests starters especially Ben.

2) Colts beat Jags.

3) Ravens beat Cincy.

 

The unsure...

 

1) Titans/Texans will be the real toss up here.

 

2) Miami beats Buffalo if Fitz starts, loses if Tua starts. Bills rest their starters though.

 

It's a hard call.....

[danlhart87]

Just now, luv_pony_express said:

What are the odds the Texans would sit Watson?  I guess more than zero.  But how much more?

https://dknation.draftkings.com/2020/12/28/22203304/deshaun-watson-injury-game-status-week-17-fantasy-football-texans-vs-dolphins

[danlhart87]

I don't understand the notion that Bills or Steelers would rest starters.

 

Makes no sense

[Indeee]

1 minute ago, danlhart87 said:

I don't understand the notion that Bills or Steelers would rest starters.

 

Makes no sense

Steelers already get home game as does the Bills. Bills will lock #2 seed after they beat new England tonight

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 minutes ago, Indeee said:

Steelers already get home game as does the Bills. Bills will lock #2 seed after they beat new England tonight

Nobody locks a two seed in.

[Indeee]

Just now, Chloe6124 said:

Nobody locks a two seed in.

I thought Bills could. Oh well. I still think the starters rest for the Steelers and Bills.  Definitely the Steelers. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

19 minutes ago, chad72 said:

Hey, by game time, we will know where the Dolphins, Browns and Ravens stand. I for once am glad we are in the 4:25 pm ET slot.

It will make the jags game so much more enjoyable if we know a win and we are in.

Just now, Indeee said:

I thought Bills could. Oh well. I still think the starters rest for the Steelers and Bills.  Definitely the Steelers. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

No with a win tonight bills and Steelers are both 12-3.

[Myles]

1 minute ago, Indeee said:

Steelers already get home game as does the Bills. Bills will lock #2 seed after they beat new England tonight

A home game in the second round is on the table.  That will be enough to get them to play to win.   

We'll see about tonight.  Division games are never a given.  

If the Bills lose tonight, both the Bills and the Steelers will be playing their starters.

[coltsva]

7 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

I don't understand the notion that Bills or Steelers would rest starters.

 

Makes no sense

It’s not what I would want my team to do. But I could see the Steelers thinking rest is more important than seeding. I’d be a bit surprised if the Bills did it. 

[holeymoley99]

Line just came out on Bills vs Phins.    Buffalo favored by 1.5 points 

 

If you bet Miami,Tenn,Clev and Balt parlay which is the lethal combo for Colts you get 2.76-1 odds so the wise guys saying 73.3 % chance Colts get in with win which is within margin CBS Sports and ESPN are saying

[Lancer1]

56 minutes ago, Indeee said:

The locks, IMO

 

1) Browns beat Steelers. Tomlin rests starters especially Ben.

2) Colts beat Jags.

3) Ravens beat Cincy.

 

The unsure...

 

1) Titans/Texans will be the real toss up here.

 

2) Miami beats Buffalo if Fitz starts, loses if Tua starts. Bills rest their starters though.

 

It's a hard call.....

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/miami-dolphins/fl-sp-dolphins-raiders-folo-sunday-20201227-r2uyndjm45dqdmrqssfq5yhjou-story.html

 

Coach Flores announced after Saturday night’s game that Tagovailoa would start against the Bills. I’m sure the Bills will prepare to face both him, and their old QB “Fitzmagic” because if Buffalo is able to stymie Tua like Vegas did, I have no doubt they’ll pull him in favor of Ryan and hope he can rescue victory yet again.

[Fluke_33]

1 hour ago, Chloe6124 said:

Nobody locks a two seed in.

a squirrel preparing for winter might.  sorry!

[Lancer1]

46 minutes ago, Myles said:

A home game in the second round is on the table.  That will be enough to get them to play to win.   

We'll see about tonight.  Division games are never a given.  

If the Bills lose tonight, both the Bills and the Steelers will be playing their starters.

I predict they'll both play their starters regardless of tonight's results - If Buffalo wins, they'll still need to win next weekend to secure #2 and if they don't Pittsburgh would be in a prime spot to claim it themselves.

48 minutes ago, coltsva said:

It’s not what I would want my team to do. But I could see the Steelers thinking rest is more important than seeding. I’d be a bit surprised if the Bills did it. 

I'd be surprised if either team did it. Just imagine the heat Tomlin would take if he "rested" his players, losing 4 out of 5 as a result and the Steelers came out as flat in the playoff game as they did yesterday, and got run off the field and eliminated in a humiliating fashion? 

 

From 11-0 to 12-4 then 1 & done in the Wild Card round? Stuff like that can get a coach fired, especially one who missed the postseason the last 2 years.

[Myles]

6 minutes ago, Lancer1 said:

I predict they'll both play their starters regardless of tonight's results - If Buffalo wins, they'll still need to win next weekend to secure #2 and if they don't Pittsburgh would be in a prime spot to claim it themselves.

I'd be surprised if either team did it. Just imagine the heat Tomlin would take if he "rested" his players, losing 4 out of 5 as a result and the Steelers came out as flat in the playoff game as they did yesterday, and got run off the field and eliminated in a humiliating fashion? 

 

From 11-0 to 12-4 then 1 & done in the Wild Card round? Stuff like that can get a coach fired, especially one who missed the postseason the last 2 years.

Yep, neither team will rest their players.

[Bert Johns]

As of now the Colts need help getting into the playoffs in week 17. How many team that we need help from are going to rest players?. Steelers play the Browns. I can see the Steelers resting players. The Dolphins play the Bills. I also can see the Bills resting players. The Ravens play the Bengals and the Bengals won't rest players but they a playing a qb carousel with Joe Burrow out for the season. Last but not least Titans play the Texans. The Texans will be full go but are we resting our playoffs hope on the Texans. God I hope not. Teams already in get nothing for being the #2 seed this year so resting players will be like the#2 seed by week. Only the #1 seed get the by and that's the Chiefs in the AFC.

[Bert Johns]

Forgot to say Colt need to wings the jags first

[Bert Johns]

Beat not wing. Phone does it's own thing sometime

[ColtsSouljah]

Assuming the Bills don't rest their starters, I really think it's Miami. I don't think they can win in Buffalo when the Bills have something to play for.

[w87r]

11 minutes ago, Myles said:

Yep, neither team will rest their players.

On top of that, I just find it risky to not try and eliminate a divisional rivalry from making the playoffs. Then potentially meeting them and losing to them in the playoffs.

 

 

Had this discussion with my son in fantasy football. He was playing his buddy last week of regular season and already clinched playoff berth. His buddy was win and in, I told him you better get him while you can because you would feel pretty stupid if you let him win then he beat you in the playoffs.

[WarGhost21]

Simply put:

 

Colts, Titans, Ravens Win

 

Brown, Dolphins Lose

 

Colts get 6th Seed (I think)

 

I see any other outcome as pretty unlikely!

[Lancer1]

13 minutes ago, Bert Johns said:

As of now the Colts need help getting into the playoffs in week 17. How many team that we need help from are going to rest players?. Steelers play the Browns. I can see the Steelers resting players. The Dolphins play the Bills. I also can see the Bills resting players. The Ravens play the Bengals and the Bengals won't rest players but they a playing a qb carousel with Joe Burrow out for the season. Last but not least Titans play the Texans. The Texans will be full go but are we resting our playoffs hope on the Texans. God I hope not. Teams already in get nothing for being the #2 seed this year so resting players will be like the#2 seed by week. Only the #1 seed get the by and that's the Chiefs in the AFC.

I don't think any team rests their players, especially not the Steelers & Bills who will both be competing for the #2 seed - although it doesn't come with a bye like in previous years, you still want it because it keeps you playing at home up until the Conference Championship Game, unless the #1 seed gets upset in which case, you would host that game so in reality if you have the #2 seed, you're guaranteed 2 home playoff games, but you might actually get 3.