Predict the odd team out (Merge)

[krunk]

3 hours ago, Myles said:

I'd have to say the Colts.  They need the most.   They must win and count on a team to lose.

Amazing how people's feelings about Pit have changed again.   Before the 2nd half of yesterdays game, everyone was talking about how they are trash, now people expect them to beat the Browns.  They may, but it is far from a sure thing.  

I think the Bills/Dolphins game is a 50/50 game.   The Dolphins have been playing very good.   They started 1-3 but have won 9 of their last 11 games.  They have allowed the fewest points in the NFL.   They are not the Dolphins we have come to know.  They are good.  Probably will be for years now.  They They have the Texans first and second round picks in the 2021 draft.  

I think the Ravens will pound the Bengals.  Hopefully the Texans can beat the Titans for us.   

Steelers damn near always beat the Browns. More than likely will happen if Ben plays a full game

[luv_pony_express]

Ironically, our best chance might end up being Houston beating Tennessee.

 

[dw49]

13 minutes ago, Lancer1 said:

The Bills & Steelers will be playing at the same time, and with the #2 seed on the line neither team will be "resting".

 

What advantage would Pittsburgh have by tanking, and letting a divisional rival advance? I think the Steelers would much rather go into the postseason on a 2 game winning streak, than having lost 4 of their previous 5!

 

NFL coaches do it all the time. 

[dw49]

Just now, luv_pony_express said:

Ironically, our best chance might end up being Houston beating Tennessee.

 

 

 

They are about void of DB's . Play action will kill them . I just can't see them staying in that game.

[Luck is Good]

Just now, dw49 said:

 

 

They are about void of DB's . Play action will kill them . I just can't see them staying in that game.

Only chance is Watson being a magician

[luv_pony_express]

7 minutes ago, Luck is Good said:

A home team knows its field better than a road team. Bills and Steelers should be fighting like crazy for that #2 seed. Would Pittsburgh really want to go to Buffalo again? Not a chance. Vice versa as well

 

Well, from your keyboard to God's ears.  I certainly hope you end up right about this.

 

But I do think it's accurate to say that HFA is not worth as much this season as it would be in a normal season.  Normally, teams would put a lot more on the table to secure it.  This year, I just think they're going to risk less.  That's not to say they aren't going to put any value on it.  But, heck, some teams are just struggling to get to 53 week in and week out with key contributors having to miss for COVID.

 

So I'd just say that it wouldn't surprise me if some of these teams opt to dial it in despite seeding being on the line -- or, at least, be more risk averse.

[The Fish]

10 minutes ago, Lancer1 said:

Unless that “beat writer” was Mike Tomlin or Art Rooney II, I wouldn’t give it much credence because he’s only speculating, but not responsible or held accountable for the performance of the team.  

Just letting you know this is out there. Steelers open as 6.5-point road underdogs to Browns (usatoday.com)   edit... no hyper link? 

[Narcosys]

Browns are out. Miami would be second out if the browns beat the Steelers, which is unlikely. 

[mirobi48]

Colts

 

[Luck is Good]

2 minutes ago, luv_pony_express said:

 

Well, from your keyboard to God's ears.  I certainly hope you end up right about this.

 

But I do think it's accurate to say that HFA is not worth as much this season as it would be in a normal season.  Normally, teams would put a lot more on the table to secure it.  This year, I just think they're going to risk less.  That's not to say they aren't going to put any value on it.  But, heck, some teams are just struggling to get to 53 week in and week out with key contributors having to miss for COVID.

 

So I'd just say that it wouldn't surprise me if some of these teams opt to dial it in despite seeding being on the line -- or, at least, be more risk averse.

Home field isn’t like normal this season. I agree with that. I just don’t see either of those teams intentionally losing with the possibility of a second home playoff game on the line. It’s much easier to win two home games to get to the conference championship rather than one home game and one road game

[Mr.Debonair]

23 minutes ago, dw49 said:

Maybe we deserve this ? Just thinking that we had huge games vs AFC teams and only won 1 out of 5. Losing to Pitt . Balt , Tenn and Cleveland and only beating Tenn really wasn't all that impressive. Plus we were a molecule away from losing twice to Houston in that group of games. We did beat GB but our record vs those playoff teams is the reason we are needing help Sunday. 

 

 

 

Yup nothing but truth here! We have not faired well against the playoff teams on our schedule. 

[luv_pony_express]

4 minutes ago, The Fish said:

Just letting you know this is out there. Steelers open as 6.5-point road underdogs to Browns (usatoday.com)   edit... no hyper link? 

 

Here you go.  Kind of depressing -- but not all that surprising.

 

They discuss Bills/Dolphins, too.  No early line on it yet.

[Lancer1]

6 minutes ago, The Fish said:

Just letting you know this is out there. NFL Week 17 early odds: Steelers open as biggest underdog they've been to the Browns in more than 30 years - CBSSports.com

That’ll make them roll over for certain, because betting odds are always indicative of exactly what’s going to happen on the field of play – actually, I think such disrespect of a team that just won it’s 12th game & divisional crown may fire them up to play even harder, and shut up their doubters.

[luv_pony_express]

2 minutes ago, Luck is Good said:

Home field isn’t like normal this season. I agree with that. I just don’t see either of those teams intentionally losing with the possibility of a second home playoff game on the line. It’s much easier to win two home games to get to the conference championship rather than one home game and one road game

 

Intentionally losing?

 

Well, I don't think any NFL team ever "intentionally" loses.  It's simply a question of how much risk they're willing to take in order to secure a win.  Like most things, it's a risk/reward thing -- and there's simply no question that Home Field means less than normal this year, and only one team gets a first round bye (and it's already locked up).

 

I think you're trying to talk yourself into a more pleasant reality than the one we're actually facing.  Vegas oddsmakers are no dummies -- and they seem to believe that the Steelers, at least, are going to rest their starters.  That doesn't mean they're going to "intentionally lose" -- but it does mean they would be making a strategic choice to increase their viability in the playoffs.

[Luck is Good]

1 minute ago, luv_pony_express said:

 

Intentionally losing?

 

Well, I don't think any NFL team ever "intentionally" loses.  It's simply a question of how much risk they're willing to take in order to secure a win.  Like most things, it's a risk/reward thing -- and there's simply no question that Home Field means less than normal this year, and only one team gets a first round bye (and it's already locked up).

 

I think you're trying to talk yourself into a more pleasant reality than the one we're actually facing.  Vegas oddsmakers are no dummies -- and they seem to believe that the Steelers, at least, are going to rest their starters.  That doesn't mean they're going to "intentionally lose" -- but it does mean they would be making a strategic choice to increase their viability in the playoffs.

We’ll just have to wait and see

[luv_pony_express]

6 minutes ago, Lancer1 said:

That’ll make them roll over for certain, because betting odds are always indicative of exactly what’s going to happen on the field of play – actually, I think such disrespect of a team that just won it’s 12th game & divisional crown may fire them up to play even harder, and shut up their doubters.

 

Betting odds are reflective of what lots of people with money on the line think is going to happen.  There is no "respect" or "disrespect"....there is just math.

 

That said, this is an opening line.  So, yeah, it's just based on what one book's oddsmakers expect to happen.  As news unfolds, the odds will adjust accordingly.  But I seriously doubt there are Steelers' players or coaches saying "Those jerks in Vegas are dissing us!  That's it...we're going to pull out all the stops now!"

 

You're just hoping they'll react that way.  And I get it.  But let's stay tethered to what is....not what we wish would be.

[Lancer1]

5 minutes ago, luv_pony_express said:

 

Betting odds are reflective of what lots of people with money on the line think is going to happen.  There is no "respect" or "disrespect"....there is just math.

 

That said, this is an opening line.  So, yeah, it's just based on what one book's oddsmakers expect to happen.  As news unfolds, the odds will adjust accordingly.  But I seriously doubt there are Steelers' players or coaches saying "Those jerks in Vegas are dissing us!  That's it...we're going to pull out all the stops now!"

 

You're just hoping they'll react that way.  And I get it.  But let's stay tethered to what is....not what we wish would be.

I’m not hoping anything, I just feel that the Steelers & Bills are both talented teams that should beat their weaker divisional rivals, with the added motivation of possibly securing the #2 seed and two home playoff games, which will likely prevent them from taking it easy or resting players in anything other than a massive blowout.

[John Waylon]

[John Waylon]

This is why losing games like we did to Jacksonville can turn out to be a real pesky misstep. 
 

Every game matters. 

[luv_pony_express]

8 minutes ago, Lancer1 said:

I’m not hoping anything, I just feel that the Steelers & Bills are both talented teams that should beat their weaker divisional rivals, with the added motivation of possibly securing the #2 seed and two home playoff games, which will likely prevent them from taking it easy or resting players in anything other than a massive blowout.

 

Well, I hope you're right.  I'm certainly not writing off the chances that either team will win their games.

 

But, as the opening odds suggest, there's at least some reason to believe that the Steelers aren't going to put the pedal to the floor to beat the Browns.  If HFA meant what it usually means, and/or if a Bye was on the table, then I'm sure both teams would go all out to win.  But HFA doesn't mean what it usually means and there isn't a Bye on the table.

 

One question I have right now is:  if it's true that the Steelers are going to rest some starters, does that make it more likely that the Bills will follow suit?

 

I don't want to talk myself into too pessimistic an outlook anymore than I want to talk myself into too optimistic one.  We're in some uncharted waters here, truth be told.

[holeymoley99]

ESPN just released their win % for next weekend

 

Colts 84%

Buff 67%

Pitt 63%

Texans 42%

Bengals 26%

[csmopar]

57 minutes ago, Luck is Good said:

A home team knows its field better than a road team. Bills and Steelers should be fighting like crazy for that #2 seed. Would Pittsburgh really want to go to Buffalo again? Not a chance. Vice versa as well

Well, I’d normally agree, but being that Pittsburgh is pretty beat up, and having not had a bye due to the Covid thing, I can see them resting the starters next week. The Bills likely won’t 

[Lancer1]

14 minutes ago, luv_pony_express said:

 

Well, I hope you're right.  I'm certainly not writing off the chances that either team will win their games.

 

But, as the opening odds suggest, there's at least some reason to believe that the Steelers aren't going to put the pedal to the floor to beat the Browns.  If HFA meant what it usually means, and/or if a Bye was on the table, then I'm sure both teams would go all out to win.  But HFA doesn't mean what it usually means and there isn't a Bye on the table.

 

One question I have right now is:  if it's true that the Steelers are going to rest some starters, does that make it more likely that the Bills will follow suit?

 

I don't want to talk myself into too pessimistic an outlook anymore than I want to talk myself into too optimistic one.  We're in some uncharted waters here, truth be told.

HFA still means you don’t travel, and the #2 seed guarantees you play at home up to and possibly through the Conference Championship game, which you’d host if the Chiefs get upset. Since the Bills & Steelers will be playing their games at the same time, their coaches will likely be fixated on  their own teams vice what the other is doing and unless Mike Tomlin announced beforehand that he was definitely resting players, Sean McDermott wouldn't really know if he did.

4 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Well, I’d normally agree, but being that Pittsburgh is pretty beat up, and having not had a bye due to the Covid thing, I can see them resting the starters next week. The Bills likely won’t 

I could see Tomlin resting some guys in the event of a blowout, but as long as Cleveland is within striking distance, I'm sure Pittsburgh's starters stay in unless the Bills blow out the Dolphins, denying the Steelers a shot at #2 in which case, Tomlin may pull some starters but likely not until late in the 2nd Half.

[Myles]

17 minutes ago, holeymoley99 said:

ESPN just released their win % for next weekend

 

Colts 84%

Buff 67%

Pitt 63%

Texans 42%

Bengals 26%

What were the Browns, Colts and Texans win probability % this week?

[aaron11]

4 minutes ago, Myles said:

What were the Browns, Colts and Texans win probability % this week?

espn had the steelers winning, i want to say it was 68% or so.  dont know the others.  the spread was steelers by one at kick off, it was a weird one because no one wanted to bet on them 

[luv_pony_express]

19 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Well, I’d normally agree, but being that Pittsburgh is pretty beat up, and having not had a bye due to the Covid thing, I can see them resting the starters next week. The Bills likely won’t 

 

I could see this happening.  It makes a lot of sense.  The Steelers and Bills aren't in equivalent situations.

 

All we can do is speculate what they're going to do.  As of now, anyway, oddsmakers are guessing the Steelers are going to rest starters....but haven't expressed any opinion on the Bills following suit.

[aaron11]

2 minutes ago, luv_pony_express said:

 

I could see this happening.  It makes a lot of sense.  The Steelers and Bills aren't in equivalent situations.

 

All we can do is speculate what they're going to do.  As of now, anyway, oddsmakers are guessing the Steelers are going to rest starters....but haven't expressed any opinion on the Bills following suit.

the bills will have something to play for no matter what happens tonight.  they could fall to 4 or get the 2 seed

[Lancer1]

2 minutes ago, luv_pony_express said:

 

I could see this happening.  It makes a lot of sense.  The Steelers and Bills aren't in equivalent situations.

 

All we can do is speculate what they're going to do.  As of now, anyway, oddsmakers are guessing the Steelers are going to rest starters....but haven't expressed any opinion on the Bills following suit.

I wonder if these oddsmakers are betting their own money, or simply "speculating".

[holeymoley99]

7 minutes ago, Myles said:

What were the Browns, Colts and Texans win probability % this week?

Not sure didnt catch it last week. I know they released before we lost both T and Clev all wr's though so probably higher then final vegas line which took those into account,

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

The Steelers and Browns hate each other. Don’t forget what happened last season.

[aaron11]

1 minute ago, Lancer1 said:

I wonder if these oddsmakers are betting their own money, or simply "speculating".

well espn does a win % for every game and they are obviously not a gambling book.  i dont think the casinos usually publish a win % but im sure they have one 

[Myles]

I fully expect both teams to be playing to win and not resting players.    HFA is too important in the playoffs.  

[holeymoley99]

Well most Casinos have a moneyline on games so can calculate win % they are thinking.

[holeymoley99]

Any smart bet would be Pitt right now plus the points because we dont even know if any browns wr will be cleared or who may have caught covid and be out, we also dont know for any of the teams who may be lost between now and next weekend with tests (I  can almost guarantee some team will lose a starter between now and then, hopefully isnt another one of ours).

[TheNextGM]

The Colts playing at 4 actually helps.. if either Dolphins or Browns lose (sorry, Ravens are gonna kill Cincy) then they’ll know win and get in.

 

If Colts can win to get in, they will.

 

[Lancer1]

3 minutes ago, TheNextGM said:

The Colts playing at 4 actually helps.. if either Dolphins or Browns lose (sorry, Ravens are gonna kill Cincy) then they’ll know win and get in.

 

If Colts can win to get in, they will.

 

That would be the case even if all those teams won, as long as Tennessee loses and they'll be playing the same time as us.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Would be great if Watson could deliver the AFC South title to the colts. 

 

I love how the NFL switches all these games up so teams can’t sit players. The NFL is the greatest game ever. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 minutes ago, Lancer1 said:

That would be the case even if all those teams won, as long as Tennessee loses and they'll be playing the same time as us.

Yeah but the chances of the Texans winning isn’t great. Most likely one of the teams loses in the early games. 

[Lancer1]

1 minute ago, Chloe6124 said:

Yeah but the chances of the Texans winning isn’t great. Most likely one of the teams loses in the early games. 

They almost beat us twice, losing both games on ill timed fumbles from our 2 yard line – with Watson under center and Watt on defense,  I give Houston a good chance to beat anyone they play, especially a divisional rival.

[dw49]

1 hour ago, Luck is Good said:

Only chance is Watson being a magician

 Totally agree and they will need a few lucky bounces