Unfortunately the colts may not make the playoffs

[adubb84]

3 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

When it comes to Luck, I would say we may be 11-3 (just a guess as nobody will ever know) but Rivers is 10-4 so it isn't that much of a difference and Rivers is 39 years old. Luck never beat Pitt so if Rivers does then that makes Rivers look pretty darn good.

I think he meant having lucky opportunities, not luck himself   

[Coltsman1788]

On 12/21/2020 at 4:56 PM, NewColtsFan said:

Reports everywhere show the Colts with a 90 percent chance of making the post season. 
 

Is it possible we don’t?    Sure.    But it’s not likely that we miss out.   Not at 90 percent odds. 
 

But if you look at this thread, it sure feels very 50-50, maybe a little better.   Sure doesn’t feel 90-10. 

I think that is because the Colts face the Steelers in Pittsburgh and we all know how that game usually goes for us.  Thus the panic scenarios.  But I agree that we have to focus on the task at hand...1-0. 

[crazycolt1]

2 hours ago, shasta519 said:

 

That's because IND and TEN don't turn the ball over.

 

But while that is an indicator of a fundamentally sound team (and likely one that has won more games than they have lost)...it doesn't really mean anything when we are talking about the randomness of game-ending fumbles. The probability of the Colts recovering a fumble at the end of a game (or to end a game) is basically the same as ATL or NYG (who have much lower TO ratios)...based on FFs and plays. Of course those two teams don't often have leads late...so the Colts would be more likely to be in those situations...but the probability of it happening in that situation is still similar for each team.

Well the fumbles against the Packers and the Texans (game 2) were forced fumbles, not random fumbles. 

Interceptions also count in that equation. 

I don't understand your comment about the Colts being the same as any other team when they are at the top of the league in takeaways. 

That is why they keep track of DIFF. 

[EastStreet]

3 hours ago, DontEverGiveUp said:

There's another scenario everyone has ruled out but is technically possible.

 

If PIT, BAL, MIA, and IND all finish 11-5 (which means we would have to beat PIT and lose to JAX), then BAL would be left out on the tiebreaker.

Yeah, several crazy scenarios. Supe and I mentioned this yesterday that it's a wild year with all the parity and different tie breakers, especially the AFCN. Pit could even get bounced after being undefeated and #1. Cleveland could win it lol. 

 

[Myles]

1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yeah I am not downplaying our D making plays but it is rare a team wins 3 games because of fumbles. 2 of 3 games we caused the fumbles, the other was a bad snap. I will take it.

Yep, no luck involved.   On 2 of the fumbles our players played better than the other teams.   On the fumbled snap, that was a Houston mistake which lead to the Colts being the better team that day.  The fumble was a mistake by the Texans and in the bundle of the game it lead to the Colts being better.  If a drive is extended because of a penalty, it is not luck, it is that the other team made a mistake.  

[Luck 4 president]

Who else hopes we lose to the jags so they don’t get Lawrence for the next 15 years??

[crazycolt1]

9 minutes ago, Luck 4 president said:

Who else hopes we lose to the jags so they don’t get Lawrence for the next 15 years??

[2006Coltsbestever]

14 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

[PrincetonTiger]

25 minutes ago, Luck 4 president said:

Who else hopes we lose to the jags so they don’t get Lawrence for the next 15 years??

[EastStreet]

39 minutes ago, Luck 4 president said:

Who else hopes we lose to the jags so they don’t get Lawrence for the next 15 years??

hope is a strong word. 

 

if we are locked into the playoffs, and can't improve position after beating Pitt, I hope we rest a lot of the starters that have played a ton of minutes or have lingering gimps.

 

if we happen to lose while doing that.... fine

 

that said, i don't see NYJ beating the Browns, who need to win. or the Pats in NE.

[chad72]

7 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

hope is a strong word. 

 

if we are locked into the playoffs, and can't improve position after beating Pitt, I hope we rest a lot of the starters that have played a ton of minutes or have lingering gimps.

 

if we happen to lose while doing that.... fine

 

that said, i don't see NYJ beating the Browns, who need to win. or the Pats in NE.

 

If we beat the Steelers, we clinch a playoff berth but still not the division till we beat the Jaguars, EVEN IF the Titans lose to the Packers. So there is your answer.  

 

Plus, the possibility of the Browns beating the Steelers and us moving as high as #3 seed would still be a possibility. We are playing 16 games, no resting of starters in our near future, IMO.

 

Chiefs are the only ones sitting pretty, IMO. Packers can clinch HFA since they have the head-to-head vs Saints, after beating the Titans, so they can rest in week 17 but then they will have a bye week as well.

[2006Coltsbestever]

10 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

hope is a strong word. 

 

if we are locked into the playoffs, and can't improve position after beating Pitt, I hope we rest a lot of the starters that have played a ton of minutes or have lingering gimps.

 

if we happen to lose while doing that.... fine

 

that said, i don't see NYJ beating the Browns, who need to win. or the Pats in NE.

We will beat Pitt and Miami will lose to the Raiders. We clinch a playoff spot at that point and lose to the Jags on purpose  . I am joking but that would be cute.

[Myles]

1 hour ago, Luck 4 president said:

Who else hopes we lose to the jags so they don’t get Lawrence for the next 15 years??

No because we wouldn't be locked into our spot.

 

But it would be a nice consolation prize.  

[Coltsman1788]

I like it when the Colts have something to play for and prove. They will need to bring it in Pittsburgh. 

[Myles]

1 minute ago, Coltsman1788 said:

I like it when the Colts have something to play for and prove. They will need to bring it in Pittsburgh. 

I agree.  Gotta watch out for that D because I think the Steelers will dedicate this game to Kevin Green.

[EastStreet]

46 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

If we beat the Steelers, we clinch a playoff berth but still not the division till we beat the Jaguars, EVEN IF the Titans lose to the Packers. So there is your answer.  

 

Plus, the possibility of the Browns beating the Steelers and us moving as high as #3 seed would still be a possibility. We are playing 16 games, no resting of starters in our near future, IMO.

 

Chiefs are the only ones sitting pretty, IMO. Packers can clinch HFA since they have the head-to-head vs Saints, after beating the Titans, so they can rest in week 17 but then they will have a bye week as well.

I can assure you, coaches (all) will have some analyst or assistant watching scores real time week 17, to take advantage of anything they can. Might not be until 3rd or even 4Q, but I'm sure we'll see some teams make those late changes to the lineups to take advantage of rest, etc (especially those playing right away), and perhaps even for draft reasons (not us). If for instance TN is up big, or down big, or Cleveland/Balt/Miami, etc. They'll have all the scenarios locked down tight. 

[shasta519]

23 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

Well the fumbles against the Packers and the Texans (game 2) were forced fumbles, not random fumbles. 

Interceptions also count in that equation. 

I don't understand your comment about the Colts being the same as any other team when they are at the top of the league in takeaways. 

That is why they keep track of DIFF. 

DIFF do include INTs...and the Colts have been terrific at getting INTs.
 

But we are talking about FFs. The chance of any team getting a FF on any play can be calculated at a surface level. For the Colts...it’s roughly the same as ATL and NYG...given how many FFs they have. They are rare...for any team...even with the vast majority of defensive players trying to force them.

 

If Next Gen Stats can get to the point where they can calculate the percentage chance of an individual ball carrier fumbling on a certain play (at the point of contact with a defensive player)...I bet the MVS fumble would have been an incredibly low percentage...while the Coutee would have been higher (given that he didn’t secure the football). 

 

But you would also have a ton of plays where this is a high percentage and the ball carrier doesn’t fumble...because they are just rare...no matter how good a defense is. It’s not an expected outcome. So to get 3 of them to win 3 different games is a statistical outlier.

 

Not to be rude...but that should be a pretty easy concept to grasp. But I think most people here take it as criticism for some reason. The only reason I am talking about is because someone was talking about a game/s they could/should have won (which means they wouldn’t be in a possible do or die situation with PIT).
 

I think if the Colts had lost 3 games this way...people would say the same thing I am saying.

 

[shasta519]

22 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

If we beat the Steelers, we clinch a playoff berth but still not the division till we beat the Jaguars, EVEN IF the Titans lose to the Packers. So there is your answer.  

 

Plus, the possibility of the Browns beating the Steelers and us moving as high as #3 seed would still be a possibility. We are playing 16 games, no resting of starters in our near future, IMO.

 

Chiefs are the only ones sitting pretty, IMO. Packers can clinch HFA since they have the head-to-head vs Saints, after beating the Titans, so they can rest in week 17 but then they will have a bye week as well.

Beating PIT won’t clinch a playoff spot...assuming MIA and BAL win. 

 

Beating PIT is huge...but they would still have to beat JAC to clinch in that scenario. 

 

Because 11-5 won’t get them a WC spot until BAL/MIA/CLE loses a 6th game. And TEN has tiebreaker on division...so they could lose to GB and beat HOU and  get to 11-5...and take the division.

 

I know 1-0 is the saying...but it’s really 2-0 to not be dependent upon other teams losing.

 

 

[shasta519]

21 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I can assure you, coaches (all) will have some analyst or assistant watching scores real time week 17, to take advantage of anything they can. Might not be until 3rd or even 4Q, but I'm sure we'll see some teams make those late changes to the lineups to take advantage of rest, etc (especially those playing right away), and perhaps even for draft reasons (not us). If for instance TN is up big, or down big, or Cleveland/Balt/Miami, etc. They'll have all the scenarios locked down tight. 

Colts play at 1:00...and so does MIA, CLE, BAL and TEN (assuming none get flexed...though PIT and CLE would in the event that CLE can win the division). 

But I don’t think any team can afford to assume anything based on 3Q scores. It wouldn’t be until well into Q4. And even then, it would require the Colts to be up huge and one of those teams down huge. 
 

The scenario in which they clinch this weekend (a win against PIT and a BAL or MIA loss) would change the calculus. At that point...they would be focused on TEN (with maybe an eye on BAL to see if they can improve from the 7th seed). 

[2006Coltsbestever]

11 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

Beating PIT won’t clinch a playoff spot...assuming MIA and BAL win. 

 

Beating PIT is huge...but they would still have to beat JAC to clinch in that scenario. 

 

Because 11-5 won’t get them a WC spot until BAL/MIA/CLE loses a 6th game. And TEN has tiebreaker on division...so they could lose to GB and beat HOU and  get to 11-5...and take the division.

 

I know 1-0 is the saying...but it’s really 2-0 to not be dependent upon other teams losing.

 

 

Depends on what Balt and Miami do this weekend as well. Our chances look good as of now on getting in.

[crazycolt1]

18 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

DIFF do include INTs...and the Colts have been terrific at getting INTs.
 

But we are talking about FFs. The chance of any team getting a FF on any play can be calculated at a surface level. For the Colts...it’s roughly the same as ATL and NYG...given how many FFs they have. They are rare...for any team...even with the vast majority of defensive players trying to force them.

 

If Next Gen Stats can get to the point where they can calculate the percentage chance of an individual ball carrier fumbling on a certain play (at the point of contact with a defensive player)...I bet the MVS fumble would have been an incredibly low percentage...while the Coutee would have been higher (given that he didn’t secure the football). 

 

But you would also have a ton of plays where this is a high percentage and the ball carrier doesn’t fumble...because they are just rare...no matter how good a defense is. It’s not an expected outcome. So to get 3 of them to win 3 different games is a statistical outlier.

 

Not to be rude...but that should be a pretty easy concept to grasp. But I think most people here take it as criticism for some reason. The only reason I am talking about is because someone was talking about a game/s they could/should have won (which means they wouldn’t be in a possible do or die situation with PIT).
 

I think if the Colts had lost 3 games this way...people would say the same thing I am saying.

 

I said interceptions counted in the equation.

You can explain it any way you like but the Colts are tied for the league lead in DIFF. 

The if's and but's can be said about every play that is snapped. 

[shasta519]

7 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Depends on what Balt and Miami do this weekend as well. Our chances look good as of now on getting in.

They are very good...because they are tied for the division lead and control their destiny in the WC race...since they are a game up against MIA (who also has LV and BUF left) and BAL. I am going to assume BAL wins out though.

But that probability will drop big time if they lose to PIT and MIA wins. Have to beat PIT or get lucky. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

3 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

They are very good...because they are tied for the division lead and control their destiny...since they are a game up against MIA (who also has LV and BUF left).

But that probability will drop big time if they lose to PIT and MIA wins. Have to beat PIT or get lucky. 

I don't see Miami beating Buffalo. I know anything can happen but I doubt that happens. I also can't seeing us getting swept by Jacks. If those 2 things happen than Miami deserves to be in.

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, shasta519 said:

Colts play at 1:00...and so does MIA, CLE, BAL and TEN (assuming none get flexed...though PIT and CLE would in the event that CLE can win the division). 

But I don’t think any team can afford to assume anything based on 3Q scores. It wouldn’t be until well into Q4. And even then, it would require the Colts to be up huge and one of those teams down huge. 
 

The scenario in which they clinch this weekend (a win against PIT and a BAL or MIA loss) would change the calculus. At that point...they would be focused on TEN (with maybe an eye on BAL to see if they can improve from the 7th seed). 

We don't know until after this weekend. A lot could change. 

Since we play Jax, we should..... be up huge anyway. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

We have to see what happens with Buffalo week 17. With no bye for the two seed it doesn’t really matter if your a 2 or 3 seed. I am just hoping raiders can win Saturday. Miami is getting a lot of players back from injury and covid.   I saw a quote from pouncy and he basically said we need to win so the media will shut up. They are going to be out for blood Sunday. I don’t have a good feeling about this game. 

[AwesomeAustin]

5 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

We have to see what happens with Buffalo week 17. With no bye for the two seed it doesn’t really matter if your a 2 or 3 seed. I am just hoping raiders can win Saturday. Miami is getting a lot of players back from injury and covid.   I saw a quote from pouncy and he basically said we need to win so the media will shut up. They are going to be out for blood Sunday. I don’t have a good feeling about this game. 

It most certainly does matter being the two seed.  Would mean playing at home the first two weeks of the playoffs.  I promise you the Bills would want to play the Steelers in Buffalo not Pittsburgh.  

[2006Coltsbestever]

5 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

We have to see what happens with Buffalo week 17. With no bye for the two seed it doesn’t really matter if your a 2 or 3 seed. I am just hoping raiders can win Saturday. Miami is getting a lot of players back from injury and covid.   I saw a quote from pouncy and he basically said we need to win so the media will shut up. They are going to be out for blood Sunday. I don’t have a good feeling about this game. 

Getting a 2 seed means 1st 2 playoff games at home, huge difference. If we beat Pitt it won't matter anyway but if Pitt wins that means Buffalo will have to go all out vs Miami. I already posted this the other day to you explaining why the 2 seed is important. 

[coltsorioles]

The colts are one step closer to missing the playoffs after the dolphins win.  So if all the favorites win tomorrow. Packers, ravens, browns, Steelers ( yes the Steelers are favorite now.)  The colts will be on the outside looking in. K.c. beats Atlanta they are the #1 seed.  Buffalo who has the #2 seed,  by beating Miami next week buffalo would most likely play Baltimore. Buffalo does not want to play Baltimore.  The colts only other chance is Tennessee looses both games. At green bay, at Houston. Then the colts are the #4 seed.  Bottom line if the Colts lose at Pittsburgh they will need help getting in

[coming on strong]

the jags game could end up ruining a good season . it stings really bad knowing with a win colts would be making the playoffs even with a loss tomorrow .

[Stephen]

5 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

the jags game could end up ruining a good season . it stings really bad knowing with a win colts would be making the playoffs even with a loss tomorrow .

Beat the Steelers  or sit at home.

[danlhart87]

Even if the Colts miss playoffs its not the end of the world 

 

Colts would be in prime spot to get solid talent in the draft at 18

 

[Stephen]

19 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

Even if the Colts miss playoffs its not the end of the world 

 

Colts would be in prime spot to get solid talent in the draft at 18

 

Rather pick 32

[danlhart87]

2 minutes ago, Stephen said:

Rather pick 32

wouldn't we all 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

With the Dolphins winning and AC & Smith out vs our nemesis, I would say that 90% chance of colts making playoffs has taken a hit.

[WoolMagnet]

I was excited that we could, at least, give them a good fame.

Then i heard about Smith.... now AC.  This affects passing and our ability to run.  Not good.

  I hope the staff is  up right now re-working the offensive gameplan cuz the line is gonna need some help.

  I am interested to see how this team responds.  They have surprised ne before.

  This could turn into a bloody one.  Two teams kinda desperate.  One trying to get/stay in the hunt and one team trying to right the ship.

This could be epic.  2 aging gunslingers goin at it one kast time.

[Stephen]

6 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

I was excited that we could, at least, give them a good fame.

Then i heard about Smith.... now AC.  This affects passing and our ability to run.  Not good.

  I hope the staff is  up right now re-working the offensive gameplan cuz the line is gonna need some help.

  I am interested to see how this team responds.  They have surprised ne before.

  This could turn into a bloody one.  Two teams kinda desperate.  One trying to get/stay in the hunt and one team trying to right the ship.

This could be epic.  2 aging gunslingers goin at it one kast time.

Yea was hoping  we vould face the Steelers  with no disadvantages  for once

[NewColtsFan]

For what it’s worth....

 

After Saturday’s games, even with the Miami win, the odds fir the Colts to make the playoffs only fall to 82%.   An 8 percent drop, that’s it.    This is according to ESPN.   And this kind of info typically gets confirmed by the NFL itself. 
 

The Colts were ranked 6th in the AFC
 

The odd team out right now appears to be..... Baltimore. 

[Stephen]

4 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

For what it’s worth....

 

After Saturday’s games, even with the Miami win, the odds fir the Colts to make the playoffs only fall to 82%.   An 8 percent drop, that’s it.    Thus is according to ESPN.   And this kind of info typically gets confirmed by the NFL itself. 
 

The Colts were ranked 6th in the AFC
 

The odd team out right now appears to be..... Baltimore. 

Colts lose and balimore takes our spot 

[NewColtsFan]

5 minutes ago, Stephen said:

Colts lose and balimore takes our spot 

Sorry, but No.   More things would have to happen.

 

Colts lose to Pitt and beat J’Ville and we’re 11-5.

 

Miami, which is 7th, has to beat the Bills in Buffalo in week 17. 
 

Baltimore has to win out.  
 

It’s more than just one Colts loss and one Baltimore win.  

[WoolMagnet]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

For what it’s worth....

 

After Saturday’s games, even with the Miami win, the odds fir the Colts to make the playoffs only fall to 82%.   An 8 percent drop, that’s it.    This is according to ESPN.   And this kind of info typically gets confirmed by the NFL itself. 
 

The Colts were ranked 6th in the AFC
 

The odd team out right now appears to be..... Baltimore. 

1.I see Baltimore winning out... theyhave tiebreaker over us.

2. I see cleveland beating nyg, and a real good chancebeating Pitt next week....theyhave tiebreaker.

3. My gut tells me Buffalo beats Mia, but all bets are off if Fitz comes in.

  I’m an optimistic kind of guy, but with Tenn winning at least one, we could sure use the Pitt win.  And i havent thrown in the towel, no no starting tackles presents problems against Pitt.

   My gut tells me if we go 1-1, it comes down to Miami vs Buffalo.  That seems the most likely scenario if i’m forced to put money down.