Ben Banogu

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, Moosejawcolt said:

U call it rare I call it consistent on Ballards part. Doug Dew was right. Look at his picks on D. His best players r by a trade

 

U get crusiiifed if u dare critisize Ballard. Where is the receiver talent?  Pittman is a #2 and doesnt wow me. Where is the secondary talent? Rock looks average and Moore is the best db and he was a free agent. We have a lot of aging but effective defensive players. Turay is over rated. Lewis is Meh and Banagou is looking like a bust. That is 3 2nd rounders down the toilet. How has Leonard looked as of late when playing balanced offences? He is great when an offense is one sided. This defence is not that good and I have been saying it all year.  I do not see a young and up and coming defense. I see an aging defense that ha not many young players ready to take over. The D line for the future has me very worried. We r 8 and 4 because of our free agent acquisitions and not the drafting of Ballard

No, you do not get crucified if you dare to criticize Chris Ballard.   You may get challenged, you may get push back.  But make better arguments. 

 

People don’t care about your views in this post because you have to live down your never ending assault on Quinton Nelson and Darius Leonard.   You hung yourself with your own views.    It’s not a surprise that you don’t like lesser players when you don’t like two of the three best players on the team, this 8-4 team.   
 

If you find you’re not warmly received it’s because you brought it on yourself.   A reminder, it was you who posted here not too long ago saying you enjoyed posting unpopular views and watching the angry reactions.   You brought it on yourself. 

[Myles]

9 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

U call it rare I call it consistent on Ballards part. Doug Dew was right. Look at his picks on D. His best players r by a trade

 

U get crusiiifed if u dare critisize Ballard. Where is the receiver talent?  Pittman is a #2 and doesnt wow me. Where is the secondary talent? Rock looks average and Moore is the best db and he was a free agent. We have a lot of aging but effective defensive players. Turay is over rated. Lewis is Meh and Banagou is looking like a bust. That is 3 2nd rounders down the toilet. How has Leonard looked as of late when playing balanced offences? He is great when an offense is one sided. This defence is not that good and I have been saying it all year.  I do not see a young and up and coming defense. I see an aging defense that ha not many young players ready to take over. The D line for the future has me very worried. We r 8 and 4 because of our free agent acquisitions and not the drafting of Ballard

Hmmm, I notice you didn't include Blackmon in your post.

 

Yeah, Leonard is horrible.  

[DougDew]

9 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

U call it rare I call it consistent on Ballards part. Doug Dew was right. Look at his picks on D. His best players r by a trade

 

U get crusiiifed if u dare critisize Ballard. Where is the receiver talent?  Pittman is a #2 and doesnt wow me. Where is the secondary talent? Rock looks average and Moore is the best db and he was a free agent. We have a lot of aging but effective defensive players. Turay is over rated. Lewis is Meh and Banagou is looking like a bust. That is 3 2nd rounders down the toilet. How has Leonard looked as of late when playing balanced offences? He is great when an offense is one sided. This defence is not that good and I have been saying it all year.  I do not see a young and up and coming defense. I see an aging defense that ha not many young players ready to take over. The D line for the future has me very worried. We are 8 and 4 because of our free agent acquisitions and not the drafting of Ballard.

I think the forum gets too caught up in trying to play NFL owner and evaluating GMs.  Lots of comments about draft picks or FA acquisitions get seen through the lens of an evaluation of the GM.

 

We don't know the series of influences they have to manage...accommodate a HC, influences from ownership, keeping the culture together.  Lots more goes into it than just looking at college and FA talent, although that is probably the most important part.  I've always stopped short of saying that either Ballard or Grigson or Polian are bad at their jobs.  Most of my comments about RG were not really in defense of him, but pointing out how some criticisms were baseless based upon what facts the critics were bringing to the table. 

 

And I don't place a judgement on Ballard because of anything said here.  I'm just interested in understanding where the Colts are and what is coming up through the pipeline and what will likely be rolling off soon.  If others want to bash or praise a GM for getting us to that point, or not, that's not a discussion I tend to have.

 

Draft picks are about getting better in the future, and that's why they are interesting to me.  

 

I monitor the chatter during draft days.  Interestingly, in the 4 drafts under Ballard, IMO, most of the comments that pointed to the fan base having confused or head scratching moments came during those second round dline picks that are looking most questionable today.  So the fan base is not without a good amount of knowledge, IMO.

 

We are 8 and 4 because of our free agent acquisitions and not the drafting of Ballard.

 

I think that's an overgeneralization, but probably more correct than incorrect, IMO.

[Moosejawcolt]

1 hour ago, Myles said:

Hmmm, I notice you didn't include Blackmon in your post.

 

Yeah, Leonard is horrible.  

Blackmon. Yes he has had some moments but people eant to forget bout Turay, Banagou, Lewis, Rock and Okereke has struggled. Thats a lot of high picks

[Moosejawcolt]

8 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I think you're being ultra hard on Pittman. He's playing well, very well for rook X, and very well for a rook X that has dealt with an injury. Xs generally take a little longer. I'd also say that Xs, while generally more of a #2 type WR, are critical to any team. We've been without a legit X for a while. Pascal has done well, but he's got a ceiling, and is more tweener than true X. 

 

You also can'* on Ballard for WR in general too much. His Campbell pick was a solid pick (he was graded a top 3 WR that year), and he didn't have an injury history before he got here. The last two years, Ballard has tried very hard (Funch, Campbell, Pittman) in terms of draft capital and $. The Fountain/Cain/Patmon were solid late round dice rolls as well. Cain IMO was used wrong. Fountain's development was stunted by a major injury. We still don't know what we have with Patmon, but he had good production in college, and good measurables. 

 

Biggest factor early in Ballard's days, is we just had so many holes to fill, and WR wasn't top the list. 

 

I do agree Banogu was a reach, and Ballard's choices of DEs are probably his weakest in terms of position. Too early though to say that Turay is overrated. He was highly rated late last year before the injury. Lewis is a tweener, and you need depth guys like that. Autry though has been solid, and the Houston pick up was extremely solid. 

 

In short, I think you're overeating in a lot of areas. Through the draft and FA, he's built strong lines on both sides, Sure we have questions at DE and LT the next couple years, but all teams have questions every year. To assume he won't solve for those issues is overeating at this point. We have 2 of 4 (the interior) DLs locked up, and it's likely we'll have at least one of the DEs back. 

 

And I agree, out D isn't really top 5, but they are still top 10ish, and very good. Much better than in the past. And aside from a few players, are well rounded in terms of age.  And I also agree folks overeat when Ballard is criticized (he's not perfect), but I do think you're also being a little too "sky is falling". Ballard definitely isn't the golden god folks make him out to be, but he has been very good so far.

Against good offensive teams...legit play off teams. The D has looked average at best 

 

[Myles]

27 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Blackmon. Yes he has had some moments but people eant to forget bout Turay, Banagou, Lewis, Rock and Okereke has struggled. Thats a lot of high picks

Blackmon has been great.   Okereke has been very good.  Lewis has been OK.    It seems you expect all draft picks to be pro bowl players.   

 

Ballard has taken a bottom 5 defense to a top 5 defense.  

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, Myles said:

Blackmon has been great.   Okereke has been very good.  Lewis has been OK.    It seems you expect all draft picks to be pro bowl players.   

 

Ballard has taken a bottom 5 defense to a top 5 defense.  

Some folks have unrealistic expectations. Personally, and in general, I expect 1st and 2nd rounders to be starters, 3rd and 4th to be early depth and maybe later starters, and later round guys are development dice rolls. Going by that, Ballard's done well.

 

Regrading the ones mentioned, Blackmon has shown several times he's still developing. He's been burnt several times this year. Now he's also made some huge plays. Just gotta hope he settles down on the coverage side of things. Oke did great last year as a passing downs MIKE, but taken a step back this year. Not sure what to think. I'd also toss out Willis. He's not perfect, but has been very solid for the most part the last two years. Very good value for the 4th.

[Myles]

2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

 

Regrading the ones mentioned, Blackmon has shown several times he's still developing. He's been burnt several times this year. Now he's also made some huge plays. Just gotta hope he settles down on the coverage side of things. 

As a rookie being thrust into the starting role in a year without preseason games, I think he has done great.  It's obvious he is the starter going forward.  That alone is great value for a 3rd round pick.

[DougDew]

16 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Some folks have unrealistic expectations. Personally, and in general, I expect 1st and 2nd rounders to be starters, 3rd and 4th to be early depth and maybe later starters, and later round guys are development dice rolls. Going by that, Ballard's done well.

 

Regrading the ones mentioned, Blackmon has shown several times he's still developing. He's been burnt several times this year. Now he's also made some huge plays. Just gotta hope he settles down on the coverage side of things. Oke did great last year as a passing downs MIKE, but taken a step back this year. Not sure what to think. I'd also toss out Willis. He's not perfect, but has been very solid for the most part the last two years. Very good value for the 4th.

Exactly, the idea that a team will be a SB contender in 3 to 4 years combined with the notion of "building through the draft" is a foolish expectation.  There are not enough 1st and 2nd round draft picks to build an oline and completely overhaul the defensive scheme without filling the holes with FAs.  The fact that Ballard signed defensive FAs then drafted younger players at nearly those exact positions during the same offseason says that he expects those second, third, and 4th rounders to be able to develop and take over.  

 

So if we are indeed looking to put together a winning team via the draft, BTW which can be done as Polian did it exclusively via the draft almost to a fault, the younger players need to show that they can take over, and, its going to take longer than 4 years.   JMO.

 

And it wont be a steady ascension to the SB.  It will be a rise and a fall and rise over time because good players will roll off and others who take their place may not be as good, while some other positions get better.

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, Myles said:

As a rookie being thrust into the starting role in a year without preseason games, I think he has done great.  It's obvious he is the starter going forward.  That alone is great value for a 3rd round pick.

IMO, he's playing exactly how he played at Utah last year. Huge monster hits vs what's in front of him, struggles in "true" single coverage situations. But I agree, good for 3rd round. If he can improve going backwards, he can be special. Too soon to say right now. Love the big hits though. Teams watching film will definitely start testing him more.

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Exactly, the idea that a team will be a SB contender in 3 to 4 years combined with the notion of "building through the draft" is a foolish expectation.  There are not enough 1st and 2nd round draft picks to build an oline and completely overhaul the defensive scheme without filling the holes with FAs.  The fact that Ballard signed defensive FAs then drafted younger players at nearly those exact positions during the same offseason says that he expects those second, third, and 4th rounders to be able to develop and take over. 

I'd say he expects a % to take over. Overall, FA is simply a big part of every team's roster. Always will be. Just need to balance things, and I think we've got good balance now and are trending. My only fear are a few big contracts coming due.

3 minutes ago, DougDew said:

So if we are indeed looking to put together a winning team via the draft, BTW which can be done as Polian did it exclusively via the draft almost to a fault, the younger players need to show that they can take over, and, its going to take longer than 4 years.  JMO.

IDK. IMO had Luck stayed, and Campbell not had horrible injury luck, I think we'd be competing right now. JMO, but I think we're only a few guys away. And to go further, I think we've got more potential this year than our record would suggest. I don't want to put it all on Reich, but I think our O is underutilized. And I think even with Rivers, we would have been right there had Campbell and Mack stayed healthy.

3 minutes ago, DougDew said:

 

And it wont be a steady ascension to the SB.  It will be a rise and a fall and rise over time because good players will roll off and others who take their place may not be as good.

Yup. Takes skill, luck, and timing.

[DougDew]

11 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

IDK. IMO had Luck stayed, and Campbell not had horrible injury luck, I think we'd be competing right now. JMO, but I think we're only a few guys away. And to go further, I think we've got more potential this year than our record would suggest. I don't want to put it all on Reich, but I think our O is underutilized. And I think even with Rivers, we would have been right there had Campbell and Mack stayed healthy.

Possibly.  I don't know if Luck's game would help our D much.  For as much as we might score more, stupid picks and quicker scoring would just give the ball back to the other O sooner.

 

Without TY at full strength, its hard to see how Rivers truly plays the deep game here.  And without TY at full strength, its hard to calibrate what that would have done to Luck.  Rivers has a quicker release and better short ball accuracy, IMO, but Luck had the better long game, could run for a first down, but took more sacks and picks.  We had more negative plays with Luck, but just a guess.

 

In the end, I think the difference between Luck and Rivers (given the same TY) is smaller than the difference between Rivers and JB. 

[EastStreet]

22 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Possibly.  I don't know if Luck's game would help our D much.  For as much as we might score more, stupid picks and quicker scoring would just give the ball back to the other O sooner.

huh? You're saying Luck's game would be a detriment? lol

22 minutes ago, DougDew said:

 

Without TY at full strength, its hard to see how Rivers truly plays the deep game here.  And without TY at full strength, its hard to calibrate what that would have done to Luck.  Rivers has a quicker release and better short ball accuracy, IMO, but Luck had the better long game, could run for a first down, but took more sacks and picks.  We had more negative plays with Luck, but just a guess.

I think Luck would have made good use of deep ball guys like Cain and Dulin.

22 minutes ago, DougDew said:

 

In the end, I think the difference between Luck and Rivers (given the same TY) is smaller than the difference between Rivers and JB. 

Both are distanced from JB, but Luck was more mobile, and stronger arm. Yes, Rivers has better short throw anticipation and accuracy, but Luck wasn't bad.

[PrideOfAthens17]

I try my best to not judge/rate individual players "in a vacuum", because that's not how the game is played, so it's a completely unrealistic and, to me, meaningless exercise. This is the ultimate T-E-A-M game. And the players, all of them, have to learn how to play and excel at it that way. While all team sports have a team component to each player's performance, football doesn't have anything close to the level of "individual" performance like basketball has in a "clear out" play, or much more so baseball has in the matchup between pitcher and hitter, as just two examples.

 

As such, and having watched this team now just this year, I'll just say this about the defensive personnel acquired on this team. I know of one team in particular, and I'm pretty confident in saying many teams overall, that would LOVE to have a roster with the following guys all on it, each one of whose performance so far this year I would rate in the good or better range within the team concepts of this defense.

 

Buckner

Houston

Stewart

Autry

Lewis

Muhammad

Leonard

Walker

Okereke

Moore II

Rhodes

Blackmon

Willis

Carrie

Wilson

 

as well as the following guys who have either been at least average or haven't played (barely any or at all)

 

Ya-Sin (mostly average)

Franklin (mostly average)

Turay (hasn't played nearly enough for me to tell, but is supposed to have the talent to be good to great)

Tell (hasn't played at all, but is supposed to have the talent to be at least good)

 

That's 19 players this year alone who almost all of which have been good or better within this defensive scheme, with a couple of guys having average seasons, and a couple of guys who have barely played or played none at all who are expected to be good to great.

 

As I said, I can tell you FOR A FACT that most teams in this league don't have that kind of defensive roster, and many aren't even close.

[DougDew]

2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

huh? You're saying Luck's game would be a detriment? lol

 

Not overall but it some ways it would.   The O would be statistically better, but I don't know how many more games we'd win or far into the playoffs.  While we would score more, Luck's play would also put more pressure on our D given the negative plays he would give up.  More short fields to defend, and more possessions for the other O during the entire 60 minutes. 

 

But I favor an O that focuses on ball control and time of possession rather than a lot of chunk plays.  Ball control TOP wasn't really Lucks game, IMO.   He would be an overall net gain over Rivers for sure, I'm just not sure how much.

[Myles]

2 hours ago, DougDew said:

Not overall but it some ways it would.   The O would be statistically better, but I don't know how many more games we'd win or far into the playoffs.  While we would score more, Luck's play would also put more pressure on our D given the negative plays he would give up.  More short fields to defend, and more possessions for the other O during the entire 60 minutes. 

 

But I favor an O that focuses on ball control and time of possession rather than a lot of chunk plays.  Ball control TOP wasn't really Lucks game, IMO.   He would be an overall net gain over Rivers for sure, I'm just not sure how much.

Luck would have more TD's and about the same INT's.  Lucks career INT % is 2.5, Rivers is 2.6.   

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, DougDew said:

Not overall but it some ways it would.   The O would be statistically better, but I don't know how many more games we'd win or far into the playoffs.  While we would score more, Luck's play would also put more pressure on our D given the negative plays he would give up.  More short fields to defend, and more possessions for the other O during the entire 60 minutes. 

 

But I favor an O that focuses on ball control and time of possession rather than a lot of chunk plays.  Ball control TOP wasn't really Lucks game, IMO.   He would be an overall net gain over Rivers for sure, I'm just not sure how much.

For what it’s worth, ball control, time of possession was Luck’s ENTIRE game in college.   Stanford wasn’t known for having explosive home run hitters.

 

At the pro level, Luck didn’t have a good offensive line or good running backs, OR a head coach or OC who liked the ball control, Time of Possession game.  Hard to excel at it when you don’t have the needed parts to run it.   But look at how different things were in 2018.   Better line, better backs, better running game, better overall offense. 

[NewColtsFan]

5 hours ago, DougDew said:

Possibly.  I don't know if Luck's game would help our D much.  For as much as we might score more, stupid picks and quicker scoring would just give the ball back to the other O sooner.

 

Without TY at full strength, its hard to see how Rivers truly plays the deep game here.  And without TY at full strength, its hard to calibrate what that would have done to Luck.  Rivers has a quicker release and better short ball accuracy, IMO, but Luck had the better long game, could run for a first down, but took more sacks and picks.  We had more negative plays with Luck, but just a guess.

 

In the end, I think the difference between Luck and Rivers (given the same TY) is smaller than the difference between Rivers and JB. 

You’re confusing, mixing the offense that the team ran with what Luck is able to do.  Luck can do anything.  Absolutely anything.  But he never had the players or coaches around him (until 2018) to run a more ball control, time of possession based offense. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

23 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

You’re confusing, mixing the offense that the team ran with what Luck is able to do.  Luck can do anything.  Absolutely anything.  But he never had the players or coaches around him (until 2018) to run a mire ball control, time if possession based offense. 

When you look back at 2018 we were so balanced. Luck didn’t have crazy numbers. We were so good in the pass/run balance. Luck did however have a huge deep play at least once a game. Still makes me cry thinking what this team would be with him. He would have such better weapons on offense too.  We played a ball control offense for the most part in 2018. Luck finally had a good team and coaching. So sad.

[EastStreet]

7 hours ago, DougDew said:

Not overall but it some ways it would.   The O would be statistically better, but I don't know how many more games we'd win or far into the playoffs.  While we would score more, Luck's play would also put more pressure on our D given the negative plays he would give up.  More short fields to defend, and more possessions for the other O during the entire 60 minutes. 

 

But I favor an O that focuses on ball control and time of possession rather than a lot of chunk plays.  Ball control TOP wasn't really Lucks game, IMO.   He would be an overall net gain over Rivers for sure, I'm just not sure how much.

I think Luck would still be running a lot of ball control stuff, just a few more shots. I don't see him as being a strain on the D at all. JB was a strain on the D last year, and we ran a ton of ball control. Converting and scoring, even quickly, is always better than a short drive and punt.

[Moosejawcolt]

On 12/11/2020 at 9:17 AM, Myles said:

Blackmon has been great.   Okereke has been very good.  Lewis has been OK.    It seems you expect all draft picks to be pro bowl players.   

 

Ballard has taken a bottom 5 defense to a top 5 defense.  

Lot of high pics. No, I dont expect all pro bowlers. However, thats a lot of misses with our 1st rounder and 2nd rounders on defense. Their best players on D are  Buckner (trade) and Moore (undrafted free agent).

[jvan1973]

55 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Lot of high pics. No, I dont expect all pro bowlers. However, thats a lot of misses with our 1st rounder and 2nd rounders on defense. Their best players on D are  Buckner (trade) and Moore (undrafted free agent).

You forgot a 2 time pro bowler and a first team all pro.    

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Lot of high pics. No, I dont expect all pro bowlers. However, thats a lot of misses with our 1st rounder and 2nd rounders on defense. Their best players on D are  Buckner (trade) and Moore (undrafted free agent).

Lots of misses? Your expectations are way too high and simply not reality in comparison to the rest of the league. In his 4 years, we should have had a total of 12 total 1-3R picks. We have 16 due to his moves. We have only 3 true misses (Banogu, Wilson, and Basham), and Basham is actually starting for the NYJs and is more a bad scheme fit for us, so really not a miss. 

 

So what are your expectations? Here's what most expect.

1st round - early starter - do we have 4? yes, check.

2nd round - good starter after a little development - do we have at least 4? yes, check

3rd round - depth or possibly a starter after some development - do we have at least 4? yes, check...

 

Out of what should have been 12 picks

11 starters

4 very good to stud level players (Buckner, Nelson, Smith, Leonard) 

3 current rooks that look very good (Pittman/Taylor/Blackmon)

2 2nd year players who have looked great, but injuries have stunted their development (Campbell/Turay)

1 player that is trending up after a couple years of development (Lewis)

2 2nd year players who have looked great at times but are struggling this year (Oke and RYS)

2 bad scheme fits (Hooker and Basham)

1 definite bust (Wilson)

1 probably bust (Banogu)

 

So, since Ballard has a lot of misses, name 10 teams that have done better in the last 4 years. PS, also look at the contributors pass the 3rd round...

 

1st Rounders
Buckner (not drafted, but capital used) - Stud
Nelson - Stud
Hooker - poor scheme fit after DC change, injury

 

2nd Rounders
Pittman - early, but looking pretty good
Taylor - early, and starting to come on
RYS - top 10 PFF 2nd half of 2019, struggling now
Banogu - trending towards bust
Campbell - Stud, but injury prone
Leonard - Stud
Smith - Stud
Turay - trending well, but injury
Lewis - finally trending well
Wilson - bust

 

3rd Rounders
Blackmon - early, but trending very well
Okereke - did well last year, but struggling this year
Basham - bust for us, but playing for NYJ still I think.

[NewColtsFan]

10 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Lots of misses? Your expectations are way too high and simply not reality in comparison to the rest of the league. In his 4 years, we should have had a total of 12 total 1-3R picks. We have 16 due to his moves. We have only 3 true misses (Banogu, Wilson, and Basham), and Basham is actually starting for the NYJs and is more a bad scheme fit for us, so really not a miss. 

 

So what are your expectations? Here's what most expect.

1st round - early starter - do we have 4? yes, check.

2nd round - good starter after a little development - do we have at least 4? yes, check

3rd round - depth or possibly a starter after some development - do we have at least 4? yes, check...

 

Out of what should have been 12 picks

11 starters

4 very good to stud level players (Buckner, Nelson, Smith, Leonard) 

3 current rooks that look very good (Pittman/Taylor/Blackmon)

2 2nd year players who have looked great, but injuries have stunted their development (Campbell/Turay)

1 player that is trending up after a couple years of development (Lewis)

2 2nd year players who have looked great at times but are struggling this year (Oke and RYS)

2 bad scheme fits (Hooker and Basham)

1 definite bust (Wilson)

1 probably bust (Banogu)

 

So, since Ballard has a lot of misses, name 10 teams that have done better in the last 4 years. PS, also look at the contributors pass the 3rd round...

 

1st Rounders
Buckner (not drafted, but capital used) - Stud
Nelson - Stud
Hooker - poor scheme fit after DC change, injury

 

2nd Rounders
Pittman - early, but looking pretty good
Taylor - early, and starting to come on
RYS - top 10 PFF 2nd half of 2019, struggling now
Banogu - trending towards bust
Campbell - Stud, but injury prone
Leonard - Stud
Smith - Stud
Turay - trending well, but injury
Lewis - finally trending well
Wilson - bust

 

3rd Rounders
Blackmon - early, but trending very well
Okereke - did well last year, but struggling this year
Basham - bust for us, but playing for NYJ still I think.

BOOM!!   This is a mic drop moment!!

 

Post of the day by far!          

 

Bravo!!

 

[Moosejawcolt]

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

Lots of misses? Your expectations are way too high and simply not reality in comparison to the rest of the league. In his 4 years, we should have had a total of 12 total 1-3R picks. We have 16 due to his moves. We have only 3 true misses (Banogu, Wilson, and Basham), and Basham is actually starting for the NYJs and is more a bad scheme fit for us, so really not a miss. 

 

So what are your expectations? Here's what most expect.

1st round - early starter - do we have 4? yes, check.

2nd round - good starter after a little development - do we have at least 4? yes, check

3rd round - depth or possibly a starter after some development - do we have at least 4? yes, check...

 

Out of what should have been 12 picks

11 starters

4 very good to stud level players (Buckner, Nelson, Smith, Leonard) 

3 current rooks that look very good (Pittman/Taylor/Blackmon)

2 2nd year players who have looked great, but injuries have stunted their development (Campbell/Turay)

1 player that is trending up after a couple years of development (Lewis)

2 2nd year players who have looked great at times but are struggling this year (Oke and RYS)

2 bad scheme fits (Hooker and Basham)

1 definite bust (Wilson)

1 probably bust (Banogu)

 

So, since Ballard has a lot of misses, name 10 teams that have done better in the last 4 years. PS, also look at the contributors pass the 3rd round...

 

1st Rounders
Buckner (not drafted, but capital used) - Stud
Nelson - Stud
Hooker - poor scheme fit after DC change, injury

 

2nd Rounders
Pittman - early, but looking pretty good
Taylor - early, and starting to come on
RYS - top 10 PFF 2nd half of 2019, struggling now
Banogu - trending towards bust
Campbell - Stud, but injury prone
Leonard - Stud
Smith - Stud
Turay - trending well, but injury
Lewis - finally trending well
Wilson - bust

 

3rd Rounders
Blackmon - early, but trending very well
Okereke - did well last year, but struggling this year
Basham - bust for us, but playing for NYJ still I think.

My biggest issue with Ballard is his picking in the 1st and 2nd round. I think he has had more misses than hits.

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, Moosejawcolt said:

My biggest issue with Ballard is his picking in the 1st and 2nd round. I think he has had more misses than hits.

What are your expectations of:

1. a first round pick?
2. a second round pick?
3. What % success rate do you expect from a GM on those two rounds?

 

[Moosejawcolt]

3 hours ago, EastStreet said:

What are your expectations of:

1. a first round pick?
2. a second round pick?
3. What % success rate do you expect from a GM on those two rounds?

 

I just think his 2nd rounders r kind of meh. Sure we can talk about Leonard and all that. However, there is Wilson, Turay, Lewis, Banagou, Sin and Smith I feel has some what regressed. Out of all those 2nd rounders they r just players and some misses. The Hooker miss was bad and Nelson was an easy pick. 1st and 2nd rounders are where u build your team. The qb is a free agent. The D line is built on free agency. The Oline is filled with a mass amount of assets and under performing. The best player in the secondary is a free agent and an undrafted free agent. Just my thoughts.

[EastStreet]

6 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I just think his 2nd rounders r kind of meh. Sure we can talk about Leonard and all that. However, there is Wilson, Turay, Lewis, Banagou, Sin and Smith I feel has some what regressed. Out of all those 2nd rounders they r just players and some misses. The Hooker miss was bad and Nelson was an easy pick. 1st and 2nd rounders are where u build your team. The qb is a free agent. The D line is built on free agency. The Oline is filled with a mass amount of assets and under performing. The best player in the secondary is a free agent and an undrafted free agent. Just my thoughts.

You avoided the 3 simple questions.. 

 

The O-line is not underperforming. They may have regressed from being #1, but they are still easily top 10 if not top 5. They are likely top 3 in pass pro.

 

Who cares if the DL is built on FAs. The OL is built on draft. You're trashing a top 10 OL for being built on draft capital, and bashing what is probably a top 10 DL for being FAs. It's like you're not happy either way lol. It all balances out. 

 

Second rounders are mostly just players anyway, or I should say medium to good starting players. We should only have 4 2nd rounders, but we have 10. Leonard just a player? Wut? Smith just a player, another Wut? Pittman and Taylor are coming on. Turay and Campbell are injury casualties thus far, but all teams have them.. Still, that's at least 4 good starters, plus others who are at least decent or good depth.

 

I wouldn't call Hooker a miss. I'd call him a cover 1 S who ended up playing for a team that played cover 2. 

 

I'm harder than most on the DBs, but a lot of teams would kill to have Moore. Willis is not a star, but he's above average. Blackmon is looking exceptional in one phase (in front of him), and is just a rook. RYS was top 10 last half of the season. Even if RYS flames out, we still have 3 pretty good players out of 5, and will likely bring back Rhodes back. It's like get mad if every great player is not a stud drafted guy, but also mad we use free agency to our advantage.

 

Again, name 10 teams that have drafted better the last 4 years. 

 

[NewColtsFan]

35 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I just think his 2nd rounders r kind of meh. Sure we can talk about Leonard and all that. However, there is Wilson, Turay, Lewis, Banagou, Sin and Smith I feel has some what regressed. Out of all those 2nd rounders they r just players and some misses. The Hooker miss was bad and Nelson was an easy pick. 1st and 2nd rounders are where u build your team. The qb is a free agent. The D line is built on free agency. The Oline is filled with a mass amount of assets and under performing. The best player in the secondary is a free agent and an undrafted free agent. Just my thoughts.

Now Smith has regressed too?

 

Keep throwing stuff against the wall.  See what sticks.   I’m sure for you, everything will stick.   But it won’t for the rest of the posters who clearly follow the team far closer than you do.

 

Good luck.

 

 

[crazycolt1]

4 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

My biggest issue with Ballard is his picking in the 1st and 2nd round. I think he has had more misses than hits.

I think this one of those comments you were referring to when you said you throw negative horse dung out just to get reactions.

[Yoshinator]

4 hours ago, EastStreet said:

What are your expectations of:

1. a first round pick?
2. a second round pick?
3. What % success rate do you expect from a GM on those two rounds?

 

I'll answer this with my personal opinions.

 

1.) A 1st round pick should be a pro-bowl player. He doesn't have to be an all-pro as that would be elite and we usually draft too low to get those types consistently, but Ballard has gotten Nelson, Buckner, and Leonard.

 

2.) A 2nd round pick should be an eventual starter and play in year 1 as either a starter, STs, or depth. We have had ten 2nd round picks with Ballard, and most have reached that expectation.

 

3.)1st round picks should have over a 50% success rate in the long term in a GMs tenure. 2nd round picks should be over 33% in a GMs tenure. We are looking positive on both fronts there so far. 

 

Ballard isn't perfect, but he has done very well so far as a GM. With Luck, we would be a dominant SB contender right now. That has undone a lot of what Ballard has done and set us back quite a bit. Luckily, Rivers has been a nice stopgap this year.

[AwesomeAustin]

Ballard is doing something right.  Colts have a coach with questionable play calling, a new QB that was fired from his last team and a handful of 2nd round picks with the jury still out on.  They are still 8-4.  Ive called this team average all year but the sum of all its parts say otherwise.  If the colts beat the Raiders they are almost a lock for the playoffs.  I figured they would be almost eliminated by now but Ballard has proved he knows more about building a team than this entire forum combined.  Last 4 games should be a lot of fun to watch. 

[DougDew]

On 12/11/2020 at 4:01 PM, NewColtsFan said:

For what it’s worth, ball control, time of possession was Luck’s ENTIRE game in college.   Stanford wasn’t known for having explosive home run hitters.

 

At the pro level, Luck didn’t have a good offensive line or good running backs, OR a head coach or OC who liked the ball control, Time of Possession game.  Hard to excel at it when you don’t have the needed parts to run it.   But look at how different things were in 2018.   Better line, better backs, better running game, better overall offense. 

I agree.  The Stanford offense was more of a power running O and play action.  Luck came into the NFL running Arians O, which isn't the same O at all.  Irsay picks Luck and says he wants a team that is stout with the running game, play action, then we hire Arians as OC.  Things were out of sync from the beginning for Luck, IMO.  Then we hired Pep and tried to do that three TE power stuff they run in colleges and got stuffed.  

 

You can't have a dominate Oline in the NFL like some college teams might have.  It won't last.

 

We can't run that stuff now either even with the oline we have.  It just doesn't work that consistently in the NFL unless a team has all of the pieces assembled for a few seasons.

 

And neither HC, Reich, or potentially McDaniels, is a running PA pass offense, so I don't think Luck would have ever gotten back to his college roots regardless of who our HC or GM was.

[EastStreet]

9 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I'll answer this with my personal opinions.

 

1.) A 1st round pick should be a pro-bowl player. He doesn't have to be an all-pro as that would be elite and we usually draft too low to get those types consistently, but Ballard has gotten Nelson, Buckner, and Leonard.

 

2.) A 2nd round pick should be an eventual starter and play in year 1 as either a starter, STs, or depth. We have had ten 2nd round picks with Ballard, and most have reached that expectation.

 

3.)1st round picks should have over a 50% success rate in the long term in a GMs tenure. 2nd round picks should be over 33% in a GMs tenure. We are looking positive on both fronts there so far. 

 

Ballard isn't perfect, but he has done very well so far as a GM. With Luck, we would be a dominant SB contender right now. That has undone a lot of what Ballard has done and set us back quite a bit. Luckily, Rivers has been a nice stopgap this year.

Good post. I look at it this way. 

 

1st round (early, top 10) - 25% bust rate. 35% pro bowl rate. 40% just a normal starter... 

1st round (11-32) - 35% bust rate, 25% pro bowl rate, 40% just a normal starter

2nd round - 45% bust rate, 10% pro bowl rate, 45% just a normal starter

3rd round - 55% bust rate, 5% pro bowl rate, 40% just a normal starter or depth

 

Disclaimer - varies widely by position, but the above is just my baseline.

 

Here's a decent study on 1st round bust, all pro, and pro bowl rates.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

 

[jbaron04]

On 12/9/2020 at 10:33 AM, Smonroe said:

Healthy scratch, the way you play in practice is how you get to play on gameday.

 

The only thing defending him that I heard was that it takes a couple years for pass rushers to have the light turn on.  

 

Remember, most people thought that Lewis was a bust, until this season.  Not that Grover was ever bad, but he's really improved this season.

The thought Jerry Hughes was a bust , just never gave him playing time then he goes to bill and multiple double digits sacks years 

[DougDew]

I think a lot of these Ballard discussions that get woven into just about every thread comes down to .....expectations.  It appears that the expectations for the Colts and Ballard has returned to earth somewhat from the comments I remember reading over the past four years.  The goal posts seem to be moving down.

 

Bill Polian said, the success rate of first round picks is about 50%.  Not sure how "success" is defined....immediate starter, pro bowler, all pro, or simply makes the team and bounces around the NFL with average contracts.  Ballard is has had 4 first round draft picks to work with, and is 2 for 4 by all accounts...thus far. (One of which via trade with a team who happened to have an abundance of talent at Dline coming into contracts at the same time....not sure where we'd be now if we had had to draft Kinlaw or Love.  Thank you GM of SF.) 

 

Not sure about the success of his second rounders (defense)....not sure how to define success there.  The mid level FAs are better players.  That's why we're 8 -4 and why we have a nicely ranked defense.  Not much of that ranking has to with Lewis, Turay, RYS, or Ben; all contributing like JAGS so far.

 

So we can say that Ballard is average....probably a little above...but not a genius, right?  Maybe the GM in TEN is the genius now.

 

But maybe he still a genius anyway because Luck up and quit on him, so we can pretend we'd be in the SB now and we can pretend he's still meeting genius expectations?

 

Lets look at Ballard's trades.  Two were obvious.  In 2018, the entire football world knows there are about 8 elite players, three of them are QBs.  You happen to be sitting with pick 3 in a year where there are three or four top flight QBs.  Trading down three spots seems like an easy thing, almost entirely based upon luck of the circumstances.  Which gave him some additional picks in the second round.

 

The other obvious trade was for Buckner, as explained above.  Lucky that SF wanted to move a player.  I assume that we were the team that was lucky enough to have the highest pick to offer.

 

Not so obvious, where the circumstances are not heavily leaning in your favor:  Trade out of 26 to 34, then take RYS and get Pittman later.  Trade up into the second round to take Lewis.  There were other minor shufflings around, but those are the trades that impact the second round.

 

I'd say his two biggest trades were substantially aided by circumstances.  The trades that seem more imaginative seem about 50/50;, the down to get RYS which netted Pittman last draft seems good (as long as RYS doesn't wash out and we only get one player out of it), and the trade up for Lewis.   He also trade up for JT, which is fine, we got a good player as a result.