Qb for next year/QB class of 2021 (merge)

[EastStreet]

23 minutes ago, csmopar said:

See here’s my thoughts. I do not want Wentz, period. 
 

that said, it would be intriguing if your math is right and things fall. 
 

we could have Wentz at a discounted rate, scoop up a high draft pick and basically cut him, and roll with Eason?

You really wouldn't be able to just cut him. You'd be throwing away cash. It would be similar to us just cutting JB this year, instead of rolling with it and trying to get some value.

19 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I need more than just the 38th pick or whatever it winds up being. Maybe if they give up Ertz and a future 3rd or something...

This is where I'm at. I'd be happy with Ertz or OL.

14 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I'm saying a big motivation for a team to trade for an expensive and possibly broken QB is buying a premium draft pick. Maybe not a top ten, but some kind of highly valuable draft compensation, because that's pretty much the only commodity the Eagles have to offer in exchange for cap relief. 

 

I also think they might need to look into trading Doug Peterson. 

15-25ish.

Pederson had them playing pretty well last year despite Wentz's struggles with throwing to anyone not a TE or RB.

6 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I disagree. Two thirds of the league will have no cap space in 2021. The Eagles are $80m in the red. Nick Foles was due $16m; Wentz is still guaranteed $47m. 

 

The circumstances are very different, the market is much tighter, and the Eagles money situation is way more desperate. 

I think most out there just don't get the impact to salary next year. Weird times when it comes to the cap. And should be a pretty wild trade and FA year.

[csmopar]

18 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I'm saying a big motivation for a team to trade for an expensive and possibly broken QB is buying a premium draft pick. Maybe not a top ten, but some kind of highly valuable draft compensation, because that's pretty much the only commodity the Eagles have to offer in exchange for cap relief. 

 

I also think they might need to look into trading Doug Peterson. 

Wow. I’d be more interested in a trade at that point but I think we roll with Rivers. 
 

eagles and Saints have a salary cap nightmare for sure. I’m really curious how that plays out

[csmopar]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

You really wouldn't be able to just cut him. You'd be throwing away cash. It would be similar to us just cutting JB this year, instead of rolling with it and trying to get some value.

This is where I'm at. I'd be happy with Ertz or OL.

15-25ish.

Pederson had them playing pretty well last year despite Wentz's struggles with throwing to anyone not a TE or RB.

I think most out there just don't get the impact to salary next year. Weird times when it comes to the cap. And should be a pretty wild trade and FA year.

I agree, there’s gonna be a LOT of one year contracts that are below normal levels by some solid to maybe stud players I think. I just don’t see how there won’t be with a 30 mil cut to the cap. 

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, Dogg63 said:

Completely agree, no way JB comes back at his current pay.

Like I mentioned earlier, I'd bet Ballard encourages JB to test the market. And when he does, he's going to find out he's in the 2M space, +/- 0.5M. And when he finds that out, I think staying in Indy will be very attractive to him. That's IF we're willing to carry 3. 

1 minute ago, Dogg63 said:

 

Disagree, with the exception of about 5 posters, this forum will lose it's collective mind if they retain JB for next season. Not sure about the fan base's reaction as a whole.

I think most of the anti JB element, is more just about anti JB as a starter, and anti JB big contract. I think most like him as a person, and see his value as a safe backup, and situational package guy (especially with Rivers starting). 

 

Just my opinion, but the divisiveness last year on the topic created some extremes, or the perception of extremes. If folks limited their view of JB to simply a backup with a much lower price tag, I think you'd be surprised.

1 minute ago, Dogg63 said:

Pretty sure they've been synched the entire time Ballard's been with the Colts. Ballard's been very up front and transparent.

Maybe. You also have the crowd that thinks Irsay stays out of the details, and Ballard has 100% autonomy. I'm of the camp that thinks Irsay is more involved than folks think, and very involved when it comes to key and high dollar positions like QB.

[EastStreet]

7 minutes ago, csmopar said:

I agree, there’s gonna be a LOT of one year contracts that are below normal levels by some solid to maybe stud players I think. I just don’t see how there won’t be with a 30 mil cut to the cap. 

That's why I think we may retain some of our FAs, because the ability of teams to poach is limited. We're in better position than most, so might be able to manage even a nice add or two. And let's be honest, our FAs likely want to stay. It's a good organization to play for, even if it means taking a little less.

[shasta519]

8 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

If they are vested in being patient with Eason, yet confident in his upside, it's not really kicking the can down the road. It's competing now with the future in mind. 

 

But if they are confident in Eason's upside...he's at least the QB2 next year. Wasting half of his really cheap rookie deal as the QB3 makes little sense...especially if it's to run it back with two guys who aren't even under contract until you re-sign them.

 

But more importantly, the QB2 practice snaps and prep are just too valuable...not only for development but for the coaches to truly know what they have. Not to mention any snaps he might get in the event of an in-season injury. 

 

In this scenario where it's Rivers and JB next year...the Colts basically find themselves in the same situation as the year before.

 

I can't really think of a somewhat recent scenario where a good young QB was QB3 for two straight years before taking over (and succeeding). Romo did that...but he was some obscure small-school UDFA that intrigued DAL...not some 4th round pick that they were grooming. Dak was that 4th round pick...and he was the backup by his 2nd season

 

Even Brady was the QB2 by his 2nd season (actually by the end of his first season).

 

 

[Dogg63]

11 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

You also have the crowd that thinks Irsay stays out of the details, and Ballard has 100% autonomy. I'm of the camp that thinks Irsay is more involved than folks think, and very involved when it comes to key and high dollar positions like QB.

Silliness! Irsay knows every single detail about his team. The Colts are an extension of his very being, but he's clearly not a Dan Snyder who rules like a king.

 

Irsay is definitely in the room, in the conversation, in the details of every meaningful decision for that organization. I think he's absolutely got a voice and wants to be in the discussion to put his finger on the scale one way or the other, but I also believe he gives great deference/autonomy to Ballard and the rest of the staff to actually make their own decisions.

 

I also believe Ballard and staff have great respect and deference for Irsay's extremely knowledgeable opinions. He truly cares for his team - it's health and success - and it shows. But in the end, I think they, after a healthy and intelligent conversation with the owner, make their own decisions.

[PRnum1]

40 minutes ago, csmopar said:

See here’s my thoughts. I do not want Wentz, period. 
 

that said, it would be intriguing if your math is right and things fall. 
 

we could have Wentz at a discounted rate, scoop up a high draft pick and basically cut him, and roll with Eason?

 

One thing not really mentioned about Wentz in this discussion is his injury history.

 

He's constantly hurt.  He got hurt during the superbowl run in which Nick Foles won the superbowl for the eagles.

 

The eagles also went to the playoffs last year at 8-8 I believe and Wentz got a concussion in the game where the eagles ended up losing.

 

I'm not sure why some would want to pay 25M + to a QB that just lost his job to a 3rd round pick.

 

Instead of Wentz I would take a look at a guy like Jaime Newman who had a great career at Wake Forest.  He could be a real diamond in the rough in the 3rd round.  He transferred to Georgia and opted out due to covid.

 

So how about this, keep your money, draft Newman and have him and Eason compete for the starting job ?

[pacolts56]

Cap issues or non-issues aside.... he’s had an ACL/LCL tear.... broken ribs... a Grade 1 concussion and a broken wrist (throwing hand).... and he’s missed considerable time as a result.

 

As far as I’m concerned he’s in 1 year “prove it” territory just by virtue of his injuries alone....setting aside his rotten play of late.

 

After what we experienced with Luck and his injuries I have no stomach for any trade for Wentz. If another team wants to grab him be my guest.

 

For me the ideal scenario for next season.... assuming we continue to finish strong.... would be....

 

Rivers @ 20m ish

Brissett @ 5m ish

Eason @ rookie contract 

 

This allows Ballard to fortify the rest of roster one more time, free of any big shakeups at QB. 
 

That’s my two cents and I owe you a penny’s change. 

[shasta519]

19 minutes ago, Dogg63 said:

Pretty sure they've been synched the entire time Ballard's been with the Colts. Ballard's been very up front and transparent.

 

 

Except when Irsay was stringing along the fanbase regarding Luck. I doubt that sat well with Ballard...at least it shouldn't have. But then again...they are all in the same club...and being dodgy or even flat-out misleading about injuries (especially to QBs) is kind of the standard...because they all seem to do it.

[Superman]

2 minutes ago, PRnum1 said:

I'm not sure why some would want to pay 25M + to a QB that just lost his job to a 3rd round pick.

 

Instead of Wentz I would take a look at a guy like Jaime Newman who had a great career at Wake Forest.  He could be a real diamond in the rough in the 3rd round.  He transferred to Georgia and opted out due to covid.

 

Because Wentz reached heights in his career that most QBs never will, and he did so with our current head coach. The connection is obvious. And he'll be 28 next season, so is viewed as redeemable.

 

Even then, for me, getting draft comp would be a critical part of a deal for Wentz. 

 

Set aside the money, picks, etc. If I have to choose between Wentz and a guy like Jamie Newman, I'm going with Wentz ten times out of ten. And I'm not even super excited about adding him. I'm tepid. But I'd rather have him than an unknown mid round draft pick. 

[BeanDiasucci]

2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I watch the Falcons a lot the last 20 years, and most of my local friends are Falcons fans. He's not been surrounded with talent all those years. His RBs have been hit or miss (they've been near bottom rushing the last couple years). His OL has been very up and down. He was the most sacked last year, and overall, probably one of the top 10 most sacked QBs the last 10 years. Only 2 years (his first two) of sub 20 sack years.

 

Not saying Ryan is elite, or even that I would want him in Indy, but you're off on your criticism of him. He's been the only constant for ATL and has never had a sub 60 QBR.

I'm not saying that you're entirely wrong, but here's a report on Ryan from just last Sunday. I'm not seeing how he'd be an upgrade for the Colts at this point in his career. 

Quote

 

Matt Ryan finished the afternoon against the Chargers completing 21-of-32 passing attempts for 224 yards and one touchdown to a season-high three interceptions. Those three interceptions- which all happened in the second half- led to the 10 points for the Chargers.

 

If the volume of interceptions weren’t bad enough, Ryan also threw his final one late in the fourth quarter and that set up the game-winning drive for the Chargers.

 

Anyone who has been keeping up with the league this year knows how bad the Chargers have been- especially defensively. Even with Julio Jones out, the expectation for the Falcons was that they were going to score some points. Unfortunately, those three interceptions were the difference in the outcome of the game and they led to yet another loss.

 

Matt Ryan Grade vs. Chargers: D-     

 

https://bloggingdirty.com/2020/12/14/matt-ryan-grade-falcons-losing-patience/

[Superman]

3 minutes ago, pacolts56 said:

Cap issues or non-issues aside.... he’s had an ACL/LCL tear.... broken ribs... a Grade 1 concussion and a broken wrist (throwing hand).... and he’s missed considerable time as a result.

 

As far as I’m concerned he’s in 1 year “prove it” territory just by virtue of his injuries alone....setting aside his rotten play of late.

 

After what we experienced with Luck and his injuries I have no stomach for any trade for Wentz. If another team wants to grab him be my guest.

 

For me the ideal scenario for next season.... assuming we continue to finish strong.... would be....

 

Rivers @ 20m ish

Brissett @ 5m ish

Eason @ rookie contract 

 

This allows Ballard to fortify the rest of roster one more time, free of any big shakeups at QB. 
 

That’s my two cents and I owe you a penny’s change. 

 

The most likely scenario for the Colts is Rivers coming back. I'm 50/50 on JB coming back, but since there won't be a lot of money out there for backup QBs, I'd bet right now that he stays at least one more year. But he's not really a priority for me. 

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

But if they are confident in Eason's upside...he's at least the QB2 next year. Wasting half of his really cheap rookie deal as the QB3 makes little sense...especially if it's to run it back with two guys who aren't even under contract until you re-sign them.

 

But more importantly, the QB2 practice snaps and prep are just too valuable...not only for development but for the coaches to truly know what they have. Not to mention any snaps he might get in the event of an in-season injury. 

 

In this scenario where it's Rivers and JB next year...the Colts basically find themselves in the same situation as the year before.

 

I can't really think of a somewhat recent scenario where a good young QB was QB3 for two straight years before taking over (and succeeding). Romo did that...but he was some obscure small-school UDFA that intrigued DAL...not some 4th round pick that they were grooming. Dak was that 4th round pick...and he was the backup by his 2nd season

 

Even Brady was the QB2 by his 2nd season (actually by the end of his first season).

Only thing that is unattractive to me is wasting cheap contract years. But honestly, that's not a major concern with me when it comes to QB (if they get it right). 

 

I think you're perhaps getting caught up to much in the #2 or #3 label. Eason could actually be #2A and JB #2B with some package responsibility. Eason is only on average a million a year. Let's say we can get JB back for under 2M. So 3M locked in two QBs isn't bad. And if you're going to start Rivers (and assumes he plays all year), Eason isn't really a value on short yardage situations. But JB is. Now if Rivers goes down with injury, the conversation changes. If a short term injury, you might go safe with JB for a game or two. If long term or for the year, you roll with Eason. At the end of the day, if you're bringing back Rivers, QB#2 isn't going to get much time on the field, so not really a big deal in the grand scheme of things, and not a big deal at all if you have both JB and Eason. IMO, it's only a decision about if you're willing to carry 3. 

 

Now if you want to play the conspiracy card, Irsay's comments might be a signal that Eason isn't progressing well. 

[EastStreet]

19 minutes ago, Dogg63 said:

Silliness! Irsay knows every single detail about his team. The Colts are an extension of his very being, but he's clearly not a Dan Snyder who rules like a king.

 

Irsay is definitely in the room, in the conversation, in the details of every meaningful decision for that organization. I think he's absolutely got a voice and wants to be in the discussion to put his finger on the scale one way or the other, but I also believe he gives great deference/autonomy to Ballard and the rest of the staff to actually make their own decisions.

 

I also believe Ballard and staff have great respect and deference for Irsay's extremely knowledgeable opinions. He truly cares for his team - it's health and success - and it shows. But in the end, I think they, after a healthy and intelligent conversation with the owner, make their own decisions.

I agree with the above 1000%. To me it's silly to think Irsay spends his days playing piano :-). He owns the business, and FB is in his blood. You can be a hands on owner without being Jerry Jones.

[w87r]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

Anyone who knows better, please correct me.

 

@stitches @EastStreet @chad72 @SteelCityColt @ColtsBlueFL @NewColtsFan  @csmopar @w87r 

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/philadelphia-eagles/carson-wentz-18950/

 

If I understand this correctly, the Eagles could trade Wentz at the start of the 2021 league year. His 2021 salary of $15.4m and his 2021 roster bonus of $10m are already guaranteed, but those would be paid by the team trading for him. The Eagles would have a total cap penalty of nearly $34m, but it would be split -- $9.3m in 2021, and the remaining $24.7m in 2022. 

 

Also, $15m of his $22m 2022 salary becomes guaranteed in 2021 (rolling guarantee structure). So the team trading for him would be committing for two years.

 

If that's right -- and I'm second guessing myself because of all the noise, but I'm pretty sure I have it right -- then there's a market for him in a trade. However, the Eagles would be giving up a premium pick to shed his contract.

 

So, do you want a former MVP level QB in his mid 20s + a potential first round pick? And are you willing to pay $25.4m in 2021 and potentially $22m in 2022 in exchange?

So after looking into it a little deeper. The Eagles are on the hook for the $6m option bonus as well.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/overthecap.com/the-eagles-options-with-carson-wentz/amp/

 

Making his traded contract to new team as the following:

 

2021: $25.4m

2022: $22m

2023: $25m

2024: $26m

 

 

Which is definitely more interesting, especially if they are willing to give up a pick to move him. They have to eat $34m on a trade or $59m on a release which they could make post June 1st cut to spread over 2 years.

 

 

Still not so sure that is the route I would like to take, but is more doable, especially future years hit. Could possibly even get him to restructure and get that 2021 cap hit down to around $12m for more guaranteed money later..

 

Good catch on the option bonus, still not sure why they would be on the hook(link doesn't go into very much detail) for it as it isnt the signing bonus, but according to that link, that is the case.

[EastStreet]

21 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Because Wentz reached heights in his career that most QBs never will, and he did so with our current head coach. The connection is obvious. And he'll be 28 next season, so is viewed as redeemable.

 

Even then, for me, getting draft comp would be a critical part of a deal for Wentz. 

 

Set aside the money, picks, etc. If I have to choose between Wentz and a guy like Jamie Newman, I'm going with Wentz ten times out of ten. And I'm not even super excited about adding him. I'm tepid. But I'd rather have him than an unknown mid round draft pick. 

I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but I just don't think Wentz is all that beautiful. He gets way too much credit for winning a SB in 2017, when it was Foles that played every game in the playoffs. The Eagles that year had a top 5 defense, #1 OL, good skill players, etc.. Don't get me wrong, he had a good year in the regular season, but he also was surrounded by a great team. Pederson's creativity in play calling that year was pretty impressive too. 

[Superman]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but I just don't think Wentz is all that beautiful. He gets way too much credit for winning a SB in 2017, when it was Foles that played every game in the playoffs. The Eagles that year had a top 5 defense, #1 OL, good skill players, etc.. Don't get me wrong, he had a good year in the regular season, but he also was surrounded by a great team. Pederson's creativity in play calling that year was pretty impressive too. 

 

How good/important Wentz is/was is debatable. And still, his play in 2017 is more than one should reasonably expect from any mid round pick. There are first rounders who will never play as well as Wentz has played in his career. 

 

So if I had to pick, it's an easy choice for me, just based on ability. Add in the money and other variables, and there's a lot to consider. But Wentz on ability and past performance is an intriguing prospect.

 

There may be something to the rumors about his injuries and whatnot. He may be broken. I think that's undetermined at this point.

[EastStreet]

27 minutes ago, BeanDiasucci said:

I'm not saying that you're entirely wrong, but here's a report on Ryan from just last Sunday. I'm not seeing how he'd be an upgrade for the Colts at this point in his career. 

https://bloggingdirty.com/2020/12/14/matt-ryan-grade-falcons-losing-patience/

IDK, it's one game, and on the road. And as the article said, Julio was out. Ridley has needed to become the #1 this year, and I can't even name their #3, or any of their TEs, can you? lol. Their OL is atrocious, and Gurly is averaging 3.5ish.... They've got issues on offense, and Ryan isn't really one of the top 5.

[w87r]

I do want to take this post out, to apologize to all I have been so hasty about the Wentz deal.

 

With this new info coming to light, it is definitely doable, and a little mode interesting to at least look a into a little more.

 

 

AndI consider myself pretty well versed on salary cap matters.

 

Again good catch Superman on Option bonus not going to new team. When I get home I am going to try and look a little deeper into why Philly is on the hook for it.

 

 

It might be that his option was picked IP with being on roster this year, and where new team might still be on the hook for it moving forward. However the dead cap figure says other wise.

[Superman]

21 minutes ago, w87r said:

So after looking into it a little deeper. The Eagles are on the hook for the $6m option bonus as well.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/overthecap.com/the-eagles-options-with-carson-wentz/amp/

 

Making his traded contract to new team as the following:

 

2021: $25.4m

2022: $22m

2023: $25m

2024: $26m

 

 

Which is definitely more interesting, especially if they are willing to give up a pick to move him. They have to eat $34m on a trade or $59m on a release which they could make post June 1st cut to spread over 2 years.

 

 

Still not so sure that is the route I would like to take, but is more doable, especially future years hit. Could possibly even get him to restructure and get that 2021 cap hit down to around $12m for more guaranteed money later..

 

Good catch on the option bonus, still not sure why they would be on the hook(link doesn't go into very much detail) for it as it isnt the signing bonus, but according to that link, that is the case.

 

I think that breakdown matches what I posted, right? 

 

The option bonus was guaranteed at signing, so it's a misnomer to call it an "option" bonus; in practice, it's just a second signing bonus. It was paid at the start of 2020. It's completely charged to the Eagles and prorated over five seasons, just like a signing bonus. It would be accelerated to the 2021 cap, or partially to 2021 with the remainder charged in 2022. 

 

I don't see a restructure being on the table for the trading team. He's guaranteed $40m over the next two seasons. So unless you want to add extra years, and push some of the cap hits into those future years, there's not a lot of benefit for the trading team. And the only real incentive for Wentz would be to make more guaranteed money; he's still due $100m over the next four seasons on his current contract. The scary part for the Eagles is that his "extension" really doesn't start until 2021.

 

It's basically a two year commitment, at least. If not for the cap shrinkage, the Eagles would be waiting at least one more season and hoping he gets back on track. But as it stands, I think they have to do something at the start of 2021.

 

Edit: The option bonus function is a big part of what forced the Colts hand with the Manning contract. Check this out, go down to "Prorated Bonus." https://overthecap.com/a-guide-to-the-nfl-salary-cap/

[shasta519]

3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Only thing that is unattractive to me is wasting cheap contract years. But honestly, that's not a major concern with me when it comes to QB (if they get it right). 

 

I think you're perhaps getting caught up to much in the #2 or #3 label. Eason could actually be #2A and JB #2B with some package responsibility. Eason is only on average a million a year. Let's say we can get JB back for under 2M. So 3M locked in two QBs isn't bad. And if you're going to start Rivers (and assumes he plays all year), Eason isn't really a value on short yardage situations. But JB is. Now if Rivers goes down with injury, the conversation changes. If a short term injury, you might go safe with JB for a game or two. If long term or for the year, you roll with Eason. At the end of the day, if you're bringing back Rivers, QB#2 isn't going to get much time on the field, so not really a big deal in the grand scheme of things, and not a big deal at all if you have both JB and Eason. IMO, it's only a decision about if you're willing to carry 3. 

 

Now if you want to play the conspiracy card, Irsay's comments might be a signal that Eason isn't progressing well. 

 

Except that the depth chart is a thing. As QB3...Eason gets less reps in practice and runs with the 3rd team (and scout team from what I have read). Repeating that process next year doesn't really help him develop...or help him build rapport with guys like Pittman and other pass catchers. And since the Colts are trying to contend right now...Eason's involvement as QB3 is tertiary to having your QB2 ready to take over in the case of an injury.

 

It's good that JB gets to be involved...but I think his short-yard usage should be low on the reasons to re-sign him and even lower on why he would be the backup QB. They have a stable of RBs and a good OL. And Reich can put any big skill position player back there and achieve the same result...which he has done with Burton (with almost identical success). Put MAC in at QB and he will fall forward for 1-2 yards. 

 

If they go with Rivers next year...the guy backing him up should be the guy that they plan to start in 2022 (no thanks to year 3 with Rivers either. Labels or not...QB3s don't really make the jump to starter. But if the plan is to have him be QB3 next year and then QB2 in 2022...then that is the definition of kicking the can down the road.

 

IF Eason isn't ready to step into a legit NFL backup QB job...then they will draft someone in April that they believe can. 

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

How good/important Wentz is/was is debatable. And still, his play in 2017 is more than one should reasonably expect from any mid round pick. There are first rounders who will never play as well as Wentz has played in his career. 

Not sure I understand. Wentz was the #2 overall pick, so why wouldn't we expect his play in 2017 to be good?

 

I agree, he's probably better than a newbie mid round rook, but that assumes he's not broke, and ultimately that a huge concern for me now. Add in the money, and it's scary. Add in a 1st round pick to pair with him, and a little less scary :-).

1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

So if I had to pick, it's an easy choice for me, just based on ability. Add in the money and other variables, and there's a lot to consider. But Wentz on ability and past performance is an intriguing prospect.

 

There may be something to the rumors about his injuries and whatnot. He may be broken. I think that's undetermined at this point.

I do agree he's intriguing. Could be a huge success, could be a total bust. It's almost like a high round drafted rookie to me (without the cheap contract). I am very open to it though if they would give a 1st rounder, either this draft or next. If it is a bust, you can at least use that pick to combo with your own to go get a QB, or trade for another.

[EastStreet]

8 minutes ago, w87r said:

I do want to take this post out, to apologize to all I have been so hasty about the Wentz deal.

 

With this new info coming to light, it is definitely doable, and a little mode interesting to at least look a into a little more.

 

 

AndI consider myself pretty well versed on salary cap matters.

 

Again good catch Superman on Option bonus not going to new team. When I get home I am going to try and look a little deeper into why Philly is on the hook for it.

 

 

It might be that his option was picked IP with being on roster this year, and where new team might still be on the hook for it moving forward. However the dead cap figure says other wise.

I think it's still a stretch though. I think I actually mentioned the 25ish real $ in your thread last week. That really isn't the factor to me though. It's all the other stuff.

[Superman]

2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Not sure I understand. Wentz was the #2 overall pick, so why wouldn't we expect his play in 2017 to be good?

 

I agree, he's probably better than a newbie mid round rook, but that assumes he's not broke, and ultimately that a huge concern for me now. Add in the money, and it's scary. Add in a 1st round pick to pair with him, and a little less scary :-).

I do agree he's intriguing. Could be a huge success, could be a total bust. It's almost like a high round drafted rookie to me (without the cheap contract). I am very open to it though if they would give a 1st rounder, either this draft or next. If it is a bust, you can at least use that pick to combo with your own to go get a QB, or trade for another.

 

Because first round QBs often never play to the level of their draft pick status. Blake Bortles (#3), Mitchell Trubisky (#2), Sam Darnold (#3), etc. Wentz was an MVP candidate in his second season. That's not typical of QBs.

 

Without Wentz's previous heights, this wouldn't be a conversation. It's all about how good he's been in the past.

[EastStreet]

4 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

Except that the depth chart is a thing. As QB3...Eason gets less reps in practice and runs with the 3rd team (and scout team from what I have read). Repeating that process next year doesn't really help him develop...or help him build rapport with guys like Pittman and other pass catchers. And since the Colts are trying to contend right now...Eason's involvement as QB3 is tertiary to having your QB2 ready to take over in the case of an injury.

You can give Eason QB2 reps, and limit JBs to short yardage / goal line.

4 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

It's good that JB gets to be involved...but I think his short-yard usage should be low on the reasons to re-sign him and even lower on why he would be the backup QB. They have a stable of RBs and a good OL. And Reich can put any big skill position player back there and achieve the same result...which he has done with Burton (with almost identical success). Put MAC in at QB and he will fall forward for 1-2 yards. 

It's not high on my typical reasons to sign a QB2, but with Rivers, there is a natural fit. 

 

I agree though, there are 20 ways to skin that cat (like I posted to @Chloe6124 )

 

Just saying, JB doesn't have to impact Eason all that much.

4 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

If they go with Rivers next year...the guy backing him up should be the guy that they plan to start in 2022 (no thanks to year 3 with Rivers either. Labels or not...QB3s don't really make the jump to starter. But if the plan is to have him be QB3 next year and then QB2 in 2022...then that is the definition of kicking the can down the road.

 

IF Eason isn't ready to step into a legit NFL backup QB job...then they will draft someone in April that they believe can. 

A lot of folks said no thanks to "Rivers in 2021 a month or so ago. What if Rivers continues his high level play throughout 21? If he's still playing like he is now, I'd be happy to bring him back another year. He's playing at a very high level, and he's only had a lower INT% twice in his career. Rough start to 2020, but very strong finish. An entire year like he's playing now, and it would be arguably his best season.

[shasta519]

14 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

How good/important Wentz is/was is debatable. And still, his play in 2017 is more than one should reasonably expect from any mid round pick. There are first rounders who will never play as well as Wentz has played in his career. 

 

So if I had to pick, it's an easy choice for me, just based on ability. Add in the money and other variables, and there's a lot to consider. But Wentz on ability and past performance is an intriguing prospect.

 

There may be something to the rumors about his injuries and whatnot. He may be broken. I think that's undetermined at this point.

 

You also have the Reich connection/factor.

 

Wentz burst onto the scene...but has been mired with injuries and his play has slipped dramatically...as has his pass protection this season. 

 

Darnold is similar in that way...except that he didn't have the initial breakout and has been plagued by really bad pass protection for two seasons. But Darnold was very much an ascending player at the end of last season.

 

When it comes to guys like Wentz and Darnold...you are gambling that they aren't broken...physically and mentally. I would probably take the risk...because the long-term upside is there (something that doesn't really exist with Rivers). Worked for NO...and worked for TEN...could work for the Colts.

 

 

[EastStreet]

Just now, Superman said:

 

Because first round QBs often never play to the level of their draft pick status. Blake Bortles (#3), Mitchell Trubisky (#2), Sam Darnold (#3), etc. Wentz was an MVP candidate in his second season. That's not typical of QBs.

 

Without Wentz's previous heights, this wouldn't be a conversation. It's all about how good he's been in the past.

I get that. Overall though, how many rook QBs have a top 5 D, #1 OL, and good skill players surrounding them? I agree 2017 was a "height", I'm just not sure how real it was. The numbers are truly nice. 

[Superman]

4 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I get that. Overall though, how many rook QBs have a top 5 D, #1 OL, and good skill players surrounding them? I agree 2017 was a "height", I'm just not sure how real it was. The numbers are truly nice. 

 

 

I haven't really talked about his numbers. I know I watched a lot of Eagles games in his first two years, and was impressed with his ability, from the ground up, especially his movement, quickness and playmaking. I saw the tools and the performance, and expected that he was the next big thing. Then he got hurt, and hasn't quite been the same since. His coaching staff has also changed dramatically, the receiving corps and even the TEs have taken a step back, the OL isn't as good, etc. 

 

So there's been a lot of change, some with his surrounding cast, some with him directly. And he might be past the point of no return, but the reason for intrigue seems pretty obvious, IMO. Especially in comparison with an unproven draft prospect. A player who has proven performance in the NFL, at 28 years old, at QB -- a position where the lifespan offers another ten years of potential -- is going to be more attractive to me than almost any rookie.

[stitches]

2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

IDK, they might have a lot of motivation to move him. 

 

On Wentz in general. Do me a favor and look at his yearly stats closely. Look at his pass catchers and TE use. Also, look at how some WRs who left Wentz, are doing other places (or how some regressed when joining Philly). IMO, he's a TE/RB dependent QB. It's just weird. Also, his completion % is not that great (never has been), and his ANYA, TD%, and QBR have all dropped since 2017. And if you look at his advanced stats, it's a very muddy collection of stats. I'm talking last year, not this year. IDK, just don't have a good vibe.

Overall I agree he's been on a steady decline ever since that injury. And the stats to some degree show that too. I still think he was good last year, when you consider what he had to deal with. He was almost single-handedly dragging that team to being competitive in most games. He's also been on a steady decline since Reich left. And since their roster has been getting hit by injuries more seriously than any other team in the NFL. There are for certain plenty of culprits to distribute the blame to, and he's not blameless either... especially this year. But yeah... this is where the pros(Ballard, Reich, Groh) have to earn their money and make the call of whether or not they can bring him back to his earlier self. 

 

For whatever it's worth, I'm not saying I'm certain we can get him back to his MVP level season. It's possible that whole season was a mirrage so I by no means think it's unreasonable to not want to touch him with 10-foot pole. I completely understand the people who have that view. If he was a no brainer he wouldn't be on the table or if he was there'd be tons and tons of potential suitors. I just feel like there is something there and that he was his best self when Reich and Groh were there. I think he's a good shot to take. Better than most QBs you will be able to get outside of the top 10-15(where we will be drafting for the foreseeable future). 

 

Something that makes me doubt him is all the rumors that are coming from Philly about him not being a good leader and seemingly his teammates not having his back. Just yesterday there was something in the media by an Eagles player saying something to the effect "Hurts provided good leadership to the team and spark that we were missing"... I don't know. Reich should know him much better than any of us, so... whatever they decide I will be good with it. 

[DontEverGiveUp]

Rivers is a better option than all of the QBs being discussed in this thread.

 

Some fans might not know that, but the team does.

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

I haven't really talked about his numbers. I know I watched a lot of Eagles games in his first two years, and was impressed with his ability, from the ground up, especially his movement, quickness and playmaking. I saw the tools and the performance, and expected that he was the next big thing. Then he got hurt, and hasn't quite been the same since. His coaching staff has also changed dramatically, the receiving corps and even the TEs have taken a step back, the OL isn't as good, etc. 

 

So there's been a lot of change, some with his surrounding cast, some with him directly. And he might be past the point of no return, but the reason for intrigue seems pretty obvious, IMO. Especially in comparison with an unproven draft prospect. A player who has proven performance in the NFL, at 28 years old, at QB -- a position where the lifespan offers another ten years of potential -- is going to be more attractive to me than almost any rookie.

 

Couple questions.

1) in your opinion, how much drop off is due to injuries? What does your eye/gut say?

2) how would you rank the below

1. Wentz along with the 12th pick in 2021 or unknown 1R in 22
2. Rivers for 1 year
3. Rivers for 2 years (assumes he closes 21 strong, and we make it to the AFC-C)
4. Trask in late 1st or before by mid 2nd
5. Our 2R pick for the final two years of Carr's contract (21ish /year)
6. Our 1R pick for the final two years of Carr

 

I purposefully did not include Eason since we know little about him, and he was a mid round pick.

[Superman]

4 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

Couple questions.

1) in your opinion, how much drop off is due to injuries? What does your eye/gut say?

2) how would you rank the below

1. Wentz along with the 12th pick in 2021 or unknown 1R in 22
2. Rivers for 1 year
3. Rivers for 2 years (assumes he closes 21 strong, and we make it to the AFC-C)
4. Trask in late 1st or before by mid 2nd
5. Our 2R pick for the final two years of Carr's contract (21ish /year)
6. Our 1R pick for the final two years of Carr

 

I purposefully did not include Eason since we know little about him, and he was a mid round pick.

 

1) I don't know, as I haven't watched him closely since the beginning of last season. I felt like it was all about injury the last time I paid attention. Since then, his supporting cast has kind of fallen apart, so there are some variables to consider. I'm not prepared to lay out a claim at this point. He would absolutely be a reclamation project, with a significant price tag. That's why the pick would be necessary.

 

2) None of those excite me, tbh. How about I go in order from safest to most risky?

1. Rivers for 1 year
2. Rivers for 2 years
3. Second rounder for Carr
4. First rounder for Carr
5. Wentz + a pick
6. Trask (and I'm not that familiar with Trask and don't have a feel for his standing as a prospect)

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

1) I don't know, as I haven't watched him closely since the beginning of last season. I felt like it was all about injury the last time I paid attention. Since then, his supporting cast has kind of fallen apart, so there are some variables to consider. I'm not prepared to lay out a claim at this point. He would absolutely be a reclamation project, with a significant price tag. That's why the pick would be necessary.

I'm feeling more and more open to him with a 1R pick... 

I expect more stuff to leak out about the situation in the weeks to come. 

Gonna be fun to follow.

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

2) None of those excite me, tbh. How about I go in order from safest to most risky?

1. Rivers for 1 year
2. Rivers for 2 years
3. Second rounder for Carr
4. First rounder for Carr
5. Wentz + a pick
6. Trask (and I'm not that familiar with Trask and don't have a feel for his standing as a prospect)

lol, Then what would excite you?

 

BTW, your stack is my order too. I might swap 2 for 3 though.

[Superman]

9 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I'm feeling more and more open to him with a 1R pick... 

I expect more stuff to leak out about the situation in the weeks to come. 

Gonna be fun to follow.

lol, Then what would excite you?

 

BTW, your stack is my order too. I might swap 2 for 3 though.

 

Meant to say, Stafford is another one, but probably on the same level as Carr. Maybe a little lower.

 

A hot shot prospect might get me going, but I haven't watched any of them at this point. Going back in time to get Herbert would be exciting on multiple levels...

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Meant to say, Stafford is another one, but probably on the same level as Carr. Maybe a little lower.

 

A hot shot prospect might get me going, but I haven't watched any of them at this point. Going back in time to get Herbert would be exciting on multiple levels...

I was a fan of Herbert last year. Oh well. 

Stafford would be after Carr, before Wentz, for me. 

[csmopar]

1 hour ago, w87r said:

So after looking into it a little deeper. The Eagles are on the hook for the $6m option bonus as well.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/overthecap.com/the-eagles-options-with-carson-wentz/amp/

 

Making his traded contract to new team as the following:

 

2021: $25.4m

2022: $22m

2023: $25m

2024: $26m

 

 

Which is definitely more interesting, especially if they are willing to give up a pick to move him. They have to eat $34m on a trade or $59m on a release which they could make post June 1st cut to spread over 2 years.

 

 

Still not so sure that is the route I would like to take, but is more doable, especially future years hit. Could possibly even get him to restructure and get that 2021 cap hit down to around $12m for more guaranteed money later..

 

Good catch on the option bonus, still not sure why they would be on the hook(link doesn't go into very much detail) for it as it isnt the signing bonus, but according to that link, that is the case.

Looking at the simulator on OTC dot com

 

Eagles cap space for 2021 is NEGATIVE 88.8 million OVER the cap.

 

If they trade Wentz before June 1, they'd have 33.8 million in dead money going into 2021, just with him.  They would lose an additional 852,000 on their cap, putting them even further over the cap.

 

If they cut him, they' lose the 59 as you mentions and suffer 24.5 million additional loss to their cap.  meaning they'd be 113.5 million OVER the cap.

 

If they designate him a Post June 1 cut, they'd have 34 million in dead money, but it doesn't affect their 2021 cap at all, it stays at 88.8 million over the cap. but it does save them 6 million on their 2022 cap. My guess is this would be the move they make. 

[EastStreet]

52 minutes ago, stitches said:

Overall I agree he's been on a steady decline ever since that injury. And the stats to some degree show that too. I still think he was good last year, when you consider what he had to deal with. He was almost single-handedly dragging that team to being competitive in most games. He's also been on a steady decline since Reich left. And since their roster has been getting hit by injuries more seriously than any other team in the NFL. There are for certain plenty of culprits to distribute the blame to, and he's not blameless either... especially this year. But yeah... this is where the pros(Ballard, Reich, Groh) have to earn their money and make the call of whether or not they can bring him back to his earlier self. 

He was good last year, I agree. It was just a weird good lol. His top 3 receivers were 2 TEs and a RB. And this is while having the #1 OL. He's a head scratcher to me.

 

Very good point about the pros earning their money here. And Reich should have a better feel than most. My gut says Reich prefers Rivers, so we'll see. 

52 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

For whatever it's worth, I'm not saying I'm certain we can get him back to his MVP level season. It's possible that whole season was a mirrage so I by no means think it's unreasonable to not want to touch him with 10-foot pole. I completely understand the people who have that view. If he was a no brainer he wouldn't be on the table or if he was there'd be tons and tons of potential suitors. I just feel like there is something there and that he was his best self when Reich and Groh were there. I think he's a good shot to take. Better than most QBs you will be able to get outside of the top 10-15(where we will be drafting for the foreseeable future). 

I'm not really putting much stock in the Reich/Wentz factor. Other than Reich knowing more about Wentz than most, not really sure how much Reich had to do with his success. My gut still thinks Philly's O success was more a factor of Pederson's scheme and play calling. I'm sure Reich contributed, I just think his contributions were more around management. IMO, the style/scheme/play calling by Philly, is just too different compared to the Colts.

52 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

Something that makes me doubt him is all the rumors that are coming from Philly about him not being a good leader and seemingly his teammates not having his back. Just yesterday there was something in the media by an Eagles player saying something to the effect "Hurts provided good leadership to the team and spark that we were missing"... I don't know. Reich should know him much better than any of us, so... whatever they decide I will be good with it. 

I've heard some rumblings here too. And some about WRs not being to happy with him. If Ballard goes that direction, which I doubt he does, I'll embrace it and hope for the best. At least as long as it works lol. If it worked, it would be very nice though.

[w87r]

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

I think it's still a stretch though. I think I actually mentioned the 25ish real $ in your thread last week. That really isn't the factor to me though. It's all the other stuff.

It definitely is still a stretch at $25m and like I said, still don't know if its the path I would want them to go.

 

 

At the end of the day, whatever Ballard decides I will support.

[EastStreet]

Just now, w87r said:

It definitely is still a stretch at $25m and like I said, still don't know if its the path I would want them to go.

 

At the end of the day, whatever Ballard decides I will support.

Yup. Ballard is shrewd, and I wouldn't doubt him too much in the FA space. Some of his draft picks are head scratchers to me at times, but I've liked most FA moves. And those I didn't like were more about the $ than the player. At the end of the day, I think it's River's job to turn down, and I think the likelihood of Wentz is very low. We'll see. I wouldn't be "mad" though.