The Decision to go for it on 4th down

[ColtsLegacy]

8 minutes ago, ClaytonColt said:

I don't mind the aggressive decision but I don't love the play call.

 

Another angle though..... with Nelson and Kelly up there we have to be able to make a bit of a hole. Once Reich makes that decision the execution still needs to be better, especially at an area that is our strength.

 

All worked out in the end so can't be too critical but it's a learning point all around I think. 

 

Actually, Kelly took his man right and Nelson blocked his man left, leaving about an 8 foot hole. Unfortunately, about 5 defenders filled that hole and poor Burton was the only one there blocking no one.

 

PS... Burton was your pulling TE into the hole. Hines up the gut, with Burton as the lead block. Personnel... Woof.

[John Waylon]

I don’t mind the decision, that’s only a moderate risk versus a very high reward. 
 

What I do mind is the call. 
 

Running up the gut with Hines out of the jumbo set is so infuriating at this point. Defense absolutely have to know it’s coming, and it’s not a successful enough play for us that we should make it a point to run it a couple times every game. It was literally the worst play he could call in that situation. 
 

It’s just another example of how this team has to win in spite of it’s head coach’s efforts to blow it that we see all too often. 

[GoColts8818]

Just now, John Waylon said:

I don’t mind the decision, that’s only a moderate risk versus a very high reward. 
 

What I do mind is the call. 
 

Running up the gut with Hines out of the jumbo set is so infuriating at this point. Defense absolutely have to know it’s coming, and it’s not a successful enough play for us that we should make it a point to run it a couple times every game. It was literally the worst play he could call in that situation. 
 

It’s just another example of how this team has to win in spite of it’s head coach’s efforts to blow it that we see all too often. 

I disagree with the moderate risk.  If the Texans don’t fumble the snap that could have very well cost them the game.  You kick and go up seven and make the Texans score a TD to get you to overtime.  

[GoColts8818]

1 hour ago, ColtsLegacy said:

 

Actually, Kelly took his man right and Nelson blocked his man left, leaving about an 8 foot hole. Unfortunately, about 5 defenders filled that hole and poor Burton was the only one there blocking no one.

 

PS... Burton was your pulling TE into the hole. Hines up the gut, with Burton as the lead block. Personnel... Woof.

I am just so sick of Hines up the middle.  I groan everytime I see it.  It doesn’t work but Frank keeps forcing it.  

[John Waylon]

Just now, GoColts8818 said:

I disagree with the moderate risk.  If the Texans don’t fumble the snap that could have very well cost them the game.  You kick and go up seven and make the Texans score a TD to get you to overtime.  

Our defense against their ailing team offense needing to go 90+ yards to score a TD to move in front? That’s a moderate risk at best. Not many would take the Texans to win that series. 

[GoColts8818]

3 minutes ago, John Waylon said:

Our defense against their ailing team offense needing to go 90+ yards to score a TD to move in front? That’s a moderate risk at best. Not many would take the Texans to win that series. 

Passing on points to put you up a touchdown in a one score game that you need to win is much more than moderate risk sorry.  

[Sumo63]

1 minute ago, GoColts8818 said:

Passing on points to put you up a touchdown in a one score game that you need to win is much more than marginal risk sorry.  

Plus it shows a lack of faith in the defense, who have carried this anemic offense all season (when they're not in soft zone).  That call was totally tone deaf.  I'm a Reich supporter but that was a head scrather for me and I was 5 beers in.  Presumably frank was sober!

[John Hammonds]

My two cents -

 

It wasn't the call to go for it on 4th down that made me cringe.  (Although I would have preferred kicking the FG and making our worst case scenario being up by 7, and the best they could do is tie.)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but they gave the ball to Hines, who cannot force his own hole, with Trey Burton, who cannot block, to deliver the wham block to open the hole.  With Rivers behind center, not Brissett.

How I interpret this is that Reich believed it was more important to do a quick count hoping to catch the defense unprepared than it was to get the proper personnel on the field.  We were running a short yardage play with 3rd down spread personnel.  If you give the ball to Taylor behind a block by Doyle, that's a first down.  We had the wrong personnel on the field, by coach's decision.

 

Quite frankly (no pun intended), that play should have lost us the game.

 

I'm glad we won.  But I'm not satisfied in the manner in which we won.  That being, by an unforced error by the opponent.  I don't like winning by miracle.  I'd rather win because we did the right things to win.

 

 

[boo2202]

2 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

I keep reading the frustration over running up the middle with Hines.

 

Where was the room?   Where was the hole?   Hines was stopped two yards deep in the backfield.   There is no blocking. 

Correct!! Absolutely no run blocking. A strength of this team last year has turned into a weakness. Even with AC we can’t run the ball. Makes no sense. 

[Catloaf]

Weird plays all day.  TY going nuts first half, they they stop throwing to him.  JT running like a train, so they stop giving him the ball and give it to Hines who has never been good up the middle, or Wilkins who clearly did not have the hot hand today.  The 4th and 1 drove me INSANE.  You don't give it to Hines up the middle on 4th and 1, ever!!!!

[ColtStrong2013]

20 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

Passing on points to put you up a touchdown in a one score game that you need to win is much more than moderate risk sorry.  

I don’t consider this a must win. It was a game we couldn’t afford to lose, and this decision put the team at risk of losing with a Houston touchdown... 

 

I would have preferred to play in overtime to win or tie rather than lose on a last second touchdown there. We are VERY fortunate for a fumbled snap that in my opinion is a fluke.

[basketballsteve]

Hated it, Rivers started off the field and then was turned around and sent back out, the play seemed rushed and If they were going to do it I would have preferred a timeout to be sure of the play and start with a full play clock, try to get them to jump, run it only if you like what you see if you don't take another timeout and you kick the field goal.

[basketballsteve]

18 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:

My two cents -

 

It wasn't the call to go for it on 4th down that made me cringe.  (Although I would have preferred kicking the FG and making our worst case scenario being up by 7, and the best they could do is tie.)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but they gave the ball to Hines, who cannot force his own hole, with Trey Burton, who cannot block, to deliver the wham block to open the hole.  With Rivers behind center, not Brissett.

How I interpret this is that Reich believed it was more important to do a quick count hoping to catch the defense unprepared than it was to get the proper personnel on the field.  We were running a short yardage play with 3rd down spread personnel.  If you give the ball to Taylor behind a block by Doyle, that's a first down.  We had the wrong personnel on the field, by coach's decision.

 

Quite frankly (no pun intended), that play should have lost us the game.

 

I'm glad we won.  But I'm not satisfied in the manner in which we won.  That being, by an unforced error by the opponent.  I don't like winning by miracle.  I'd rather win because we did the right things to win.

 

 

Yes it was Burton that didn't get to his block let alone make it.

[GoColts8818]

Just now, ColtStrong2013 said:

I don’t consider this a must win. It was a game we couldn’t afford to lose, and this decision put the team at risk of losing with a Houston touchdown... 

 

I would have preferred to play in overtime to win or tie rather than lose on a last second touchdown there. We are VERY fortunate for a fumbled snap that in my opinion is a fluke.

Fully agree with it being a fluke at the end of the game.  About time for some luck to bounce the Colts way.  I’ll take the W but I didn’t like the call to go for it and hated the play call even more and hate that Frank is defending it like it was the right call when this is now the third time that play call has failed in key situations this season and I can’t think of a time that it has worked in a key situation.

[Moosejawcolt]

How bout instead of blaming Frank lets blame the Oline. How many times this year has Frank put it in the (elite as fans like to call it) Oline's hands and how many times have they failed to get a yard? I dont care if it is Hines, Taylor or my grandfather. This Oline has consistently failed on short yardage sutuations. The elite Olines of past open   those holes. This Oline is average at best 

[GoColts8818]

 

then don’t call that play Frank!

[GoColts8818]

 

I agree mike I agree.

[DougDew]

12 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

How bout instead of blaming Frank lets blame the Oline. How many times this year has Frank put it in the (elite as fans like to call it) Oline's hands and how many times have they failed to get a yard? I dont care if it is Hines, Taylor or my grandfather. This Oline has consistently failed on short yardage sutuations. The elite Olines of past open   those holes. This Oline is average at best 

Other teams seem to convert short yardage up the gut with better frequency than we do.  Our oline seems to have more problems getting any push in those situations.

[DougDew]

10 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

 

I agree mike I agree.

I guess that means our bigs aren't as good as other teams bigs.  Nobody seems to be pancaking this year.

[AZColt11]

I agree with most of you here but I have a serious question.  I don't know if it's just my short-term memory loss or what.  But when was the last time the Colts lined up in a short-yardage situation, in heavy personnel, and handed it off to a RB running straight up the gut for a 1st down?  I guess what I'm saying is when was the last time THAT particular play and personnel grouping was successful?  Has it happened and I just can't remember it?

 

The other thing is, is Frank just setting teams up for future positive plays maybe?  Like when other teams watch the Colts' tape all they are going to see is us getting stuffed at the goal-line and then,,,,,,,BAM.......he's gonna have Rivers fake that hand off and Doyle or Burton will be WIDE open on the corner because NOBODY is playing coverage?  I have to HOPE that is the case I guess.

[DougDew]

2 minutes ago, AZColt11 said:

I agree with most of you here but I have a serious question.  I don't know if it's just my short-term memory loss or what.  But when was the last time the Colts lined up in a short-yardage situation, in heavy personnel, and handed it off to a RB running straight up the gut for a 1st down?  I guess what I'm saying is when was the last time THAT particular play and personnel grouping was successful?  Has it happened and I just can't remember it?

 

We have not been very good at it.  But the jet sweep on third and short lost yardage too.  I think the oline has taken a step back, and the lack of a scrambling QB allows the dline to tee-off straight ahead, IMO

[AZColt11]

1 minute ago, DougDew said:

We have not been very good at it.  But the jet sweep on third and short lost yardage too.  I think the oline has taken a step back, and the lack of a scrambling QB allows the dline to tee-off straight ahead, IMO

Thanks Doug.  I was thinking the same thing, but you know when you have success at something you tend to forget it.  It's the ones where you fail that you remember most.  

 

So my question is would it be smart for them to run play-action off that a time or two?  Or would old Man Rivers get swallowed up to soon to make that work?  I mean it seemed nobody was playing coverage on that one.  Seems like if someone would have run a quick pattern it might have been open.  Or is it just me?

[DougDew]

4 minutes ago, AZColt11 said:

Thanks Doug.  I was thinking the same thing, but you know when you have success at something you tend to forget it.  It's the ones where you fail that you remember most.  

 

So my question is would it be smart for them to run play-action off that a time or two?  Or would old Man Rivers get swallowed up to soon to make that work?  I mean it seemed nobody was playing coverage on that one.  Seems like if someone would have run a quick pattern it might have been open.  Or is it just me?

PA, isn't that how JT scored on the swing pass on 4th and 4?  Maybe Frank thought HOU would sniff out PA this time.  Not sure how the oline lined up in both situations though.

[EastStreet]

11 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

 

I agree mike I agree.

Thanks for posting this. Several of us have said the same thing a few times. Aside from simply playing tight and clogging lanes, which pushes D's to stack boxes, you're pretty much telling your opponent what you're going to do. And then use your smallest guy.... oof.

[Dark Superman]

Dumb play calling. Brissett and Taylor should've been in the game if they planned on going for it. With how good the defense was playing, I would've taken the 3 points personally.

[rockywoj]

The other thing that bugs me, Reich’s “chart” that says going for it is a no brainer, it’s flawed, for it fails to consider the Colts ability in short yardage, as opposed to league wide analytics, and it fails to take into consideration of the in game scoreboard dynamic.  I also read an article last night that dove into the analytics, concluding that it was the wrong call because the win percentage if successful only ticked up marginally, but it ticked downward significantly if the play failed. The conclusion being that on the risk reward scale of the analytics, it was the incorrect call.  
 

I’m telling you, this blind faith in “analytics” in the name of aggressiveness is fools gold!

[Valpo2004]

18 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

I keep reading the frustration over running up the middle with Hines.

 

Where was the room?   Where was the hole?   Hines was stopped two yards deep in the backfield.   There is no blocking. 

 

QB sneak with Jacoby is the right playcall there.  

 

If you only need a yard, a QB sneak with Jacoby is the closest thing to a sure thing you will get.  No one has to open up a hole or anything. . . all they have to do is push their man so he takes one step backwards and Jacoby will have the first down.  

[Valpo2004]

16 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

How bout instead of blaming Frank lets blame the Oline. How many times this year has Frank put it in the (elite as fans like to call it) Oline's hands and how many times have they failed to get a yard? I dont care if it is Hines, Taylor or my grandfather. This Oline has consistently failed on short yardage sutuations. The elite Olines of past open   those holes. This Oline is average at best 

 

That's because Frank goes for overly risky calls on short yardage situations.  

 

Here he asked the OL to open a up a hole on 4th and 1.  If one guy misses his block trying to open up this hole (something that happens a lot when trying to open a hole) than it's all over.   If one Texans defender cheats down betting that you won't throw the ball in the situation. . . it's all over.  In this case it appears to me both of those things happened.  

 

Run the QB sneak with Jacoby.  No more trying to open up a hole, just push the man in front of you back one step.  

 

If you are trying to gain just one yard, run the most simple play in the entire freaking game of football.  Analytics have repeatedly shown it's the most likely play BY FAR to gain you one critical yard.  It's over 20% more likely to succeed than handing the ball to a back.  

 

https://sports.sites.yale.edu/success-short-yardage-play-types-fourth-down

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-just-fall-forward-nfl-teams-qb-sneak-underutilized

 

https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2019/01/30/the-qb-sneak-is-the-most-underutilized-play-in-football/

 

 

[hoosierhawk]

On 12/6/2020 at 4:29 PM, GoColts8818 said:

Taylor was probably tired as he had gotten the ball a lot on that drive to that point.  I had more issue with the play call there though.  Should have either screened to Hines or played action to Hilton to get you into field goal range.

They were on the Houston 5YD line. Think that is already FG range.

[Indyfan4life]

If they are going to continue running that play, then I at least want Taylor getting the run. Not Hines.

[GoColts8818]

2 minutes ago, hoosierhawk said:

They were on the Houston 5YD line. Think that is already FG range.

I was talking about the drive after that when they were running with Wilkins.

[Moosejawcolt]

11 hours ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

That's because Frank goes for overly risky calls on short yardage situations.  

 

Here he asked the OL to open a up a hole on 4th and 1.  If one guy misses his block trying to open up this hole (something that happens a lot when trying to open a hole) than it's all over.   If one Texans defender cheats down betting that you won't throw the ball in the situation. . . it's all over.  In this case it appears to me both of those things happened.  

 

Run the QB sneak with Jacoby.  No more trying to open up a hole, just push the man in front of you back one step.  

 

If you are trying to gain just one yard, run the most simple play in the entire freaking game of football.  Analytics have repeatedly shown it's the most likely play BY FAR to gain you one critical yard.  It's over 20% more likely to succeed than handing the ball to a back.  

 

https://sports.sites.yale.edu/success-short-yardage-play-types-fourth-down

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-just-fall-forward-nfl-teams-qb-sneak-underutilized

 

https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2019/01/30/the-qb-sneak-is-the-most-underutilized-play-in-football/

 

 

Watch the tape. The Oline missed blocks, they have all season. They r an average Oline with tons of assets invested. I went into the season questioning many things. The Oline was not one of them. Honestly, they r my biggest concern this late into the season

[IndySouthsider]

6 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Watch the tape. The Oline missed blocks, they have all season. They r an average Oline with tons of assets invested. I went into the season questioning many things. The Oline was not one of them. Honestly, they r my biggest concern this late into the season

DB is far more of a concern

[Moosejawcolt]

Just now, IndySouthsider said:

DB is far more of a concern

Put them both in a bowl and pick one. U wouldnt b wrong lol

[2006Coltsbestever]

37 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Watch the tape. The Oline missed blocks, they have all season. They r an average Oline with tons of assets invested. I went into the season questioning many things. The Oline was not one of them. Honestly, they r my biggest concern this late into the season

The secondary is my biggest concern, we give up way too many deep passes. We need a shutdown Corner.

[NewColtsFan]

If there’s anyone in this thread that is interested, you can listen to Frank explain his thought process in his news conference today. 
 

Frank has a number of regrets that he explains, but going for it is NOT one of them. 
 

Ge explained that having a 7-point lead was not enough.  He explained that in his judgement Watson was capable of taking the Texans down and scoring and that Watson us the best QB in two point situations.  So he went for it and said the charts all strongly indicate to go for it.   
 

It’s one thing to have an opinion about this.  But there’s a lot of thinking that goes into such calls.  I encourage people to listen to Frank explain himself.   I think you’ll be impressed. 
 

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

12 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

If there’s anyone in this thread that is interested, you can listen to Frank explain his thought process in his news conference today. 
 

Frank has a number of regrets that he explains, but going for it is NOT one of them. 
 

Ge explained that having a 7-point lead was not enough.  He explained that in his judgement Watson was capable of taking the Texans down and scoring and that Watson us the best QB in two point situations.  So he went for it and said the charts all strongly indicate to go for it.   
 

It’s one thing to have an opinion about this.  But there’s a lot of thinking that goes into such calls.  I encourage people to listen to Frank explain himself.   I think you’ll be impressed. 
 

 

I loved that we went for it, he knew Watson was hot and if we score there we are up 11 and game over. I just didn't like the call. I would've done a quick pass to TY or Pascal to get the yard or even brought in JB to do a sneak. I know it easy to second guess when something doesn't work but running Hines up the middle I would not have done. 

 

On my scale of bad, below average, average, above average, good, very good, great - I have Frank as an above average head coach at worse. I had Pagano as average so I think Frank is better. 

[ColtStrong2013]

10 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

If there’s anyone in this thread that is interested, you can listen to Frank explain his thought process in his news conference today. 
 

Frank has a number of regrets that he explains, but going for it is NOT one of them. 
 

Ge explained that having a 7-point lead was not enough.  He explained that in his judgement Watson was capable of taking the Texans down and scoring and that Watson us the best QB in two point situations.  So he went for it and said the charts all strongly indicate to go for it.   
 

It’s one thing to have an opinion about this.  But there’s a lot of thinking that goes into such calls.  I encourage people to listen to Frank explain himself.   I think you’ll be impressed. 
 

 

Clearly he doesn’t have regret or he wouldn’t go for it on 4th and short as often as he does. He would have stopped that after failing with Luck against Houston in year 1.

 

That argument that they feared defending a 7 point lead against Watson is asinine though. If they feared him with a 7 point lead, they must have been crapping their pants after failing there and watching him drive the field down 6... I know I was.

[ColtStrong2013]

10 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I loved that we went for it, he knew Watson was hot and if we score there we are up 11 and game over. I just didn't like the call. I would've done a quick pass to TY or Pascal to get the yard or even brought in JB to do a sneak. I know it easy to second guess when something doesn't work but running Hines up the middle I would not have done. 

 

On my scale of bad, below average, average, above average, good, very good, great - I have Frank as an above average head coach at worse. I had Pagano as average so I think Frank is better. 

I don’t love that he went for it, or else I wouldn’t have started this thread. But I like his overall aggressiveness compared to what the alternative could be. I think he doesn’t get the credit he deserves for some of his playcalling and play design. I’ve seen enough breakdowns through Twitter of some of the play designs he is responsible for and it’s brilliant. He’s a very intelligent coach. I just thought and still do this decision was poor and was full focused on winning, which I’m not in favor of when in a playoff chase. Get into the playoffs at any cost, including tying. And for him to say Watson could have been dangerous on a 2 point conversion at the end of the game against our defense over our offense running the ball on 4th and 1 (and still needing to score there after converting 1st down) is interesting to me. They likely would have taken their chances in overtime in that scenario. It almost seems he puts too much weight into what HE would do in that scenario versus what is likely to happen. I just think it was a bad decision that nearly cost us. Had we lost, you could specifically point to that play as the major deciding factor. Again, thank God we didn’t. Onto Las Vegas.

[DougDew]

11 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

If there’s anyone in this thread that is interested, you can listen to Frank explain his thought process in his news conference today. 
 

Frank has a number of regrets that he explains, but going for it is NOT one of them. 
 

Ge explained that having a 7-point lead was not enough.  He explained that in his judgement Watson was capable of taking the Texans down and scoring and that Watson us the best QB in two point situations.  So he went for it and said the charts all strongly indicate to go for it.   
 

It’s one thing to have an opinion about this.  But there’s a lot of thinking that goes into such calls.  I encourage people to listen to Frank explain himself.   I think you’ll be impressed. 
 

 

Thanks.  Yes, you seal the game with a FD and a TD there.  Kicking the FG simply means HOU has a chance to win with an ensuing 2 pt conversion, instead of a TD if we miss the FD, which is what folks are complaining about.

 

IOW, miss the FD, HOU can win with one score, a TD.  Make the FG, and HOU can still win with one score, a TD (and a 2pt conversion)

 

 OTOH, they have very very little chance if we go up by 11.

 

Debate the play call, yes, but the decision to go for it was not a bad decision at all.  JMO