1st to 3rd round picks

[DougDew]

7 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

We didn’t pass on Sweat.   We did what almost every NFL team did....  we took him off our board because of his heart condition.   Those calls are typically made by the owner and team doctor,  much less by the general manager. 

Yes we did.

 

Not every team passed on him at pick 26.  Only we did.  Other teams passed on him before pick 26.

 

A team traded up with us to take him at 26.  Every other team may have traded up to 27 to get him, if the team who picked 27th wasn't going to take him.

[NewColtsFan]

4 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

That’s not what people are asking for. Their asking for him to hit more on his early picks which is reasonable. I mean from 2018-2019 he’s had a combined 7 second round draft picks and hit on 3 of them. And 3/7 wouldn’t be too bad if the the other guys were at least just average (and maybe Lewis is), but these guys are below average. And I’m giving him a pass on 2017 because those were 3-4 players fit for Pagano’s scheme.  But 3/7 in itself is pretty bad. If you have 7 picks in the 2nd round over a 2 year span, you have to be better than that. Your first pick in 2019 was a corner who looks absolutely awful up to this point...and he’s your STARTER! You took a super raw edge rusher who didn’t get taught how to rush the passer in college high in the 2nd round when AJ Brown was on the board and you knew you had an aging TY Hilton. Instead you go with the more raw receiver in Campbell who wasn’t even the best receiver on Ohio State.

This is more your rush to judgement which you often do.   You’ve already decided that guys are misses before it’s time.   You’ve already decided on Turay, Lewis, Ya-Sin,  Benagu, and Campbell.   Fortunately, Ballard hasn’t decided.   Most of these guys have been hurt.  Give them the time and the health to show what they can do.   You’ve already backed off on Lewis...   maybe you’ll back off on some of these other guys too?

[crazycolt1]

1 minute ago, shasta519 said:

 

Polian was a bit overrated as a drafter...if you look at his overall tenure. He hit enough HRs though...especially early on...that the Colts were a SB contender with the GOAT each year. But his final 5 drafts were awful and left the cupboard completely bare for his successor...who then did the same thing lol.

 

I actually think Ballard is better than Polian...at least on the defensive side. And he is definitely more daft at maneuvering around the draft. But Polian's legacy is defined by Manning...and Ballard's will be by a QB as well.

Every team that Polian left, he left the cupboards dry. 

He road on the backs of Kelly and Manning as far as he could. 

[NewColtsFan]

1 minute ago, DougDew said:

Yes we did.

 

Not every team passed on him at pick 26.  Only we did.  Other teams passed on him before pick 26.

 

A team traded up with us to take him at 26.  Every other team may have traded up to 27 to get him, if the team who picked 27th wasn't going to take him.

He was a top-10 kid.   Why do you think we passed on a valuable commodity like a pass rushing defensive end?   Because he had a highly publicized heart condition.  Look at who drafted him.   The badly dysfunctional Washington football team.   You know how much Ballard values pass rushers.  Why would he not take him?   Because he was removed from our board.  Just like he was removed from most every other board from all the other teams.  He was asked about the kid after his press conference and politely said he didn’t want to talk about it.  This isn’t hard to figure out. 

[John Hammonds]

7 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

Polian was a bit overrated as a drafter...if you look at his overall tenure. He hit enough HRs though...especially early on...that the Colts were a SB contender with the GOAT each year. But his final 5 drafts were awful and left the cupboard completely bare for his successor...who then did the same thing lol.

 

I actually think Ballard is better than Polian...at least on the defensive side. And he is definitely more daft at maneuvering around the draft. But Polian's legacy is defined by Manning...and Ballard's will be by a QB as well.

I also left out his fifth and sixth year drafts, since they weren't in the comparison.  In 2002, he drafted Dwight Freeney.  The 2003 draft is the one that truly set up the 2006 superbowl win.  Dallas Clark, Robert Mathis, and Cato June came out of that draft.

[DougDew]

9 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

Passing on Sweat made little sense...and I don't think Ballard gets a pass. Could you imagine if he had picked Sweat...people here wouldn't shut up about how great he was for picking Sweat.

 

But he didn't pick Sweat. IF Sweat was off the board because of some misleading health info...then Ballard had bad info. Also...Ballard drafted Hooker at #13 (missed the Combine and had surgeries for a torn labrum in his hip and a sports hernia); Turay (missed half of his games in his sophomore and junior seasons); and Blackmon (was recovering from an ACL tear in December). Ballard has not shown himself to be averse to taking health risks in the draft...even as early Day 1 or Day 2...so I am not buying that. 

 

And IF Sweat was down their board...then it was poor evaluation. 

IMO, movements around the draft board....GMs trading down...has the earmarks of having predetermined players in mind, its just a matter of getting them at the right spot in the draft.  So he had Rock likely targeted as a desirable player.

 

IIRC, the talent pool in that draft from picks about 25 to 40 was about the same.  No player stood out as better than the others.

 

IMO, it comes down to positional value and need.  Ballard passed on the pass rusher (offered another pick so the value not taking Sweat/Sweat himself increased) and passed on Brown.....to take the corner back of a zone schemed defense.  I've had questions about Ballard caring about positional value, by taking a one-note FS at 15 and a G at 6, , and now this Sweat/Brown vs Rock discussion being added to that question.

 

He must have thought that Rock was a superior player to overcome the choices at more important positions.

[NewColtsFan]

5 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Every team that Polian left, he left the cupboards dry. 

He road on the backs of Kelly and Manning as far as he could. 

Huh?

 

Buffalo?    Carolina?  
 

He hardly left the cupboard empty. 

[shasta519]

21 minutes ago, csmopar said:

 

Beginning to wonder if MJC is Ryan Grigson himself....

He’s not been perfect and I’d like for him to be better and take less projects but compared to what we had with the prior regime, it’s a night and day difference. 

 

so I chose to do some research. This comes from Forbes, Bleacher Report and Walter Football as none of them had complete stats by themselves. 
 

The average career length in the NFL is 3.3 years. So since all the above defined draft success as the percentage of starters from each round starting for their team that chose them, I did the same and looked at data showing the percentages of starters that came from each round for the last 3 years. This includes all 3 phases, O and D, and Special Teams. 

Per the above sources: percentages of starts by players taken in each respective rounds combined since 2017. 
 

1st Round- 29.9 percent league wide.

2nd Round- 19.4 percent league wide

3rd Round - 11.6 percent league wide.

4-7- 26 percent combined

 Undrafted- 13.1 percent. League wide.

 

 

now for Ballard, taking ONLY his picks, not previous regime players that are still on the team. Special teams starters are NOT included in this. Just first string O and D. 

 

1st Round- Hooker,Nelson,Buckner(via trade): 2/3 currently starting, 1 on IR that was a starter but that is likely gone at the end of the year, so I’m counting that as a loss. 66.7 percent. 
 

2nd round: 10 picks: 7/10 have become starters. 70 percent. 
 

3rd round: 3 picks, 2/3 starters, that being Bobby O and Blackmon. 66.7%

 

4th thru 7 rounds: 5/24 or 20.8 percent(this number would jump a few points if I counted special teams.)

 

Yes, Ballard is above the league Average in getting starting results in rounds 1-3 but below average 4-7....

 

 

 

 

I don't think becoming a starter necessarily signifies success. Guys like Thornton, Moncrief and Green were starters during the Grigs era at different points...I would not consider those to be hits. You should expect early picks to start because of the investment...and often times they get drafted into starting roles due to need...especially when the GM is very selective in FA. Beating out UDFAs and late picks for those roles doesn't mean they were good picks.

 

But this is also why you can't fully evaluate draft picks for several years. 

[DougDew]

1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:

He was a top-10 kid.   Why do you think we passed on a valuable commodity like a pass rushing defensive end?   Because he had a highly publicized heart condition.  Look at who drafted him.   The badly dysfunctional Washington football team.   You know how much Ballard values pass rushers.  Why would he not take him?   Because he was removed from our board.  Just like he was removed from most every other board from all the other teams.  He was asked about the kid after his press conference and politely said he didn’t want to talk about it.  This isn’t hard to figure out. 

I don't disagree with much of what you're saying, but to say that other teams passed on him too is what we say about a player who was drafted in the 3rd or 4th round.   Like Lael Collins was that one year when Dallas drafted him (remember the questionable murder association). 

 

 Its not what I would say when a team trades up to get that player in the first.

 

I think the reason the trade was made is because Ballard valued Rock more.  

[shasta519]

 

2 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:

I also left out his fifth and sixth year drafts, since they weren't in the comparison.  In 2002, he drafted Dwight Freeney.  The 2003 draft is the one that truly set up the 2006 superbowl win.  Dallas Clark, Robert Mathis, and Cato June came out of that draft.

 

Yeah...Polian proved that if you can hit HRs on certain positions...you can build a great team if you have a great QB. He just seemed to lose that touch after the SB win for some reason...and the team couldn't overcome injuries to some of those early picks...and the team fell off a cliff.

 

And Polian is definitely a HOFer. I loved that era of Colts football. But for a guy who would rarely use FA...he needed to hit a bit more than he did...especially after those first 5 years or so. 

[DougDew]

15 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Every team that Polian left, he left the cupboards dry. 

He road on the backs of Kelly and Manning as far as he could. 

Duh, that's why GMs get fired. 

 

Based on that measure, the only successful GM is the one who never gets fired.  What they do in their 25 years in the business is irrelevant once they get fired for having a bad stretch.

[shasta519]

7 minutes ago, DougDew said:

IMO, movements around the draft board....GMs trading down...has the earmarks of having predetermined players in mind, its just a matter of getting them at the right spot in the draft.  So he had Rock likely targeted as a desirable player.

 

IIRC, the talent pool in that draft from picks about 25 to 40 was about the same.  No player stood out as better than the others.

 

IMO, it comes down to positional value and need.  Ballard passed on the pass rusher (offered another pick so the value not taking Sweat/Sweat himself increased) and passed on Brown.....to take the corner back of a zone schemed defense.  I've had questions about Ballard caring about positional value, by taking a one-note FS at 15 and a G at 6, , and now this Sweat/Brown vs Rock discussion being added to that question.

 

He must have thought that Rock was a superior player to overcome the choices at more important positions.

 

Oh I think Rock and Banogu were absolutely predetermined...and at the very top of his draft board that year. From how I understand how they rank their board...there are several qualities they are looking for...and they use them to filter down the list to a handful of players. And Rock and Banogu both fit the "Ballard player" description to a T. Athletic, long arms, hard-working, possibly overcame something or worked their way up, showed out at Senior Bowl, etc.

 

I even remember one of the Stampede Blue writers had an article that correctly predicted both players as top targets...despite Banogu being a Day 3 prospect according to places like TDN. 

 

And in the "With the Next Pick" series...there is video of them discussing Pittman and Taylor that is time-stamped on Wednesday (two days before they would even make their first pick). If that wasn't just done for effect...then that's another example of predetermined players. You even have Ballard's comment about eating popcorn with his feet up on Day 1.

 

I am not saying there is anything wrong with their process...but I do think it can create tunnel vision...and that carries opportunity cost...like we saw in 2019.

[crazycolt1]

22 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Huh?

 

Buffalo?    Carolina?  
 

He hardly left the cupboard empty. 

Buffalo- 1993-2017 lost a super bowl and won one playoff game. 

Carolina- the three years after Polian left they went 7-9, 4-12 and then 1-15. 

[crazycolt1]

20 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Duh, that's why GMs get fired. 

 

Based on that measure, the only successful GM is the one who never gets fired.  What they do in their 25 years in the business is irrelevant once they get fired for having a bad stretch.

What are you even talking about? 

[shasta519]

26 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I don't disagree with much of what you're saying, but to say that other teams passed on him too is what we say about a player who was drafted in the 3rd or 4th round.   Like Lael Collins was that one year when Dallas drafted him (remember the questionable murder association). 

 

 Its not what I would say when a team trades up to get that player in the first.

 

I think the reason the trade was made is because Ballard valued Rock more.  

 

Yeah...the fact that WAS traded up from #40 (and included what they likely knew would be an early 2nd round pick)...would imply that not all of the teams were going to pass on him...at least not for very long.

 

IF WAS doesn't take Haskins...Sweat is probably off the board at #14. But I am guessing they were pretty surprised that he had fallen that far...and it was reasonably within their reach for a trade up at that point...so they pulled the trigger to make sure they got him.

 

In hindsight...a great move on their part...who wouldn't give up two 2nd round picks for a young, 10+ sack DE? The Colts have already given up 3 2nd round picks trying to do the same thing.

[DougDew]

Just now, crazycolt1 said:

What are you even talking about? 

I think you were criticizing Polian for leaving the cupboard bare, discounting the notion that he deserved the credit he got because he left the cupboard bare when he got fired.

 

I mean yeah, he had a bad three year stretch, but the guy deserved every credit he got for his 20-25 year career.

 

 

[DougDew]

19 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

Oh I think Rock and Banogu were absolutely predetermined...and at the very top of his draft board that year. From how I understand how they rank their board...there are several qualities they are looking for...and they use them to filter down the list to a handful of players. And Rock and Banogu both fit the "Ballard player" description to a T. Athletic, long arms, hard-working, possibly overcame something or worked their way up, showed out at Senior Bowl, etc.

 

I even remember one of the Stampede Blue writers had an article that correctly predicted both players as top targets...despite Banogu being a Day 3 prospect according to places like TDN. 

 

And in the "With the Next Pick" series...there is video of them discussing Pittman and Taylor that is time-stamped on Wednesday (two days before they would even make their first pick). If that wasn't just done for effect...then that's another example of predetermined players. You even have Ballard's comment about eating popcorn with his feet up on Day 1.

 

I am not saying there is anything wrong with their process...but I do think it can create tunnel vision...and that carries opportunity cost...like we saw in 2019.

Too modern.  Too much into the sign of the times. Traitsy.  Analytics.  "These characteristics fit well into what we want to do".  A bit too cerebral.  Not enough looking at the simple things, like are they a better overall football player than the other guys.

 

I mean, Ballard didn't do it, but its exactly the kind of reason a team drafts a TJ Green in round two.

[csmopar]

57 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

I don't think becoming a starter necessarily signifies success. Guys like Thornton, Moncrief and Green were starters during the Grigs era at different points...I would not consider those to be hits. You should expect early picks to start because of the investment...and often times they get drafted into starting roles due to need...especially when the GM is very selective in FA. Beating out UDFAs and late picks for those roles doesn't mean they were good picks.

 

But this is also why you can't fully evaluate draft picks for several years. 

Agreed, I just used the criteria they did. Figured that was best for comparison. 
 

For what it’s worth, 44 percent of those taken in the first round over the last 3 years, are out of the league

[Myles]

Here is a list of all of Ballards picks.  Except Buckner.  I count him at a first round pick as that's what we gave up for him.  

Some hits, some misses.  Probably better than league average.

 

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/gallery/indianapolis-colts-every-draft-pick-made-chris-ballard/

[shasta519]

42 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Too modern.  Too much into the sign of the times. Traitsy.  Analytics.  "These characteristics fit well into what we want to do".  A bit too cerebral.  Not enough looking at the simple things, like are they a better overall football player than the other guys.

 

I mean, Ballard didn't do it, but its exactly the kind of reason a team drafts a TJ Green in round two.

 

Yeah...Ballard wouldn't have taken Green in the 2nd round...but definitely by the 5th round...assuming Green was good in interviews...and then he would have tried to turn him into a CB. 

 

This stuff isn't easy...and I won't pretend to know more than these guys...but I still have trouble understanding a room full of execs/scouts (for a team that really needs a WR) discussing AJ Brown and watching his tape...where he is putting up huge numbers in the SEC (at age 20 and age 21)...and coming to a consensus that they would rather draft a guy like Rock or Banogu. Brown had the total package...except for top end speed. 

 

Maybe the Ole Miss tape got list in the mail...because they passed on Metcalf as well...so who knows. Just makes it so much worse that he went to TEN.

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, crazycolt1 said:

Buffalo- 1993-2017 lost a super bowl and won one playoff game. 

Carolina- the three years after Polian left they went 7-9, 4-12 and then 1-15. 

Hold on..     you’re holding Bill Polian responsible for Buffalo until 2017?   He took over the Colts roughly 20 years before that.

 

He took Buffalo to 4 straight Super Bowls and you’re blaming him for what happened when he left?

 

He built the Carolina SB team and you’re blaming him for what happened once he left?

 

Wow, tough critic for a first ballot Hall of Fame GM. 

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

I don't disagree with much of what you're saying, but to say that other teams passed on him too is what we say about a player who was drafted in the 3rd or 4th round.   Like Lael Collins was that one year when Dallas drafted him (remember the questionable murder association). 

 

 Its not what I would say when a team trades up to get that player in the first.

 

I think the reason the trade was made is because Ballard valued Rock more.  

Ballard didn’t target Rock specifically with the deal.  He knew Rock could be picked by the time the Colts pick came around.   Ballard said there were 8 players he would’ve been happy with.   There was no way to know Rock would be available. 

[crazycolt1]

2 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Hold on..     you’re holding Bill Polian responsible for Buffalo until 2017?   He took over the Colts roughly 20 years before that.

 

He took Buffalo to 4 straight Super Bowls and you’re blaming him for what happened when he left?

 

He built the Carolina SB team and you’re blaming him for what happened once he left?

 

Wow, tough critic for a first ballot Hall of Fame GM. 

The point was he left the cupboards bare. He did leave them bare. 

Are you remembering that the Carolina team was built with players from other NFL teams? He didn't build that team from scratch. 

[Defjamz26]

3 hours ago, shasta519 said:

 

Yeah...these debates tend to devolve into strawman arguments and false choices. There's nothing wrong with objectively looking at the picks...and lamenting misses. 

 

The first two rounds of the 2019 draft were not good. Passing on Sweat to trade back...and then passing on Brown and Metcalf...3x (if you include the tradeback from #40 to #44). I think it implies they had Rock and  Banogu atop their boards. From what I read...they were even considering Rock at #27. So I think we can judge those evaluations (up to this point).

 

Getting the #34 pick out of that trade back was nice...but Pittman is going to have to be a Pro Bowler for that trade-back to not be a bad move IMO.

Yeah that’s a good point too. I think Ballard and his staff need to start looking at their evaluation process. Why are they hitting on some players but missing on some picks that should be no brainers? Are they over-valuing certain traits and undervaluing others? Are they being to cautious or not cautious enough when it comes to medical? Why do they seem to keep striking out at corner and edge rusher? Because everyone misses sometimes but there’s more questions to be answered when you miss on the consensus players that most analysts have ranked high. Because while scheme does matter, players like AJ Brown should be a fit for anyone. Especially when a guy like Rock who was thought to purely be a press-man corner (although he’s bad either way) gets drafted to a Cover-2 zone team.

 

Another point to make is that when you miss with those first-third round picks, it makes it hard to build a complete team because you continuously fail to upgrade the areas that need to be upgraded. It prevents you from making “luxury” picks. Now credit Ballard because he has fixed the offensive line and the linebacker core, both of which were Achilles heels of this team for years, but corner and WR haven’t been fixed because of misses. Edge rusher also hasn’t been fixed. When you miss on corners, it prevents you from fixing WR. When you miss on WR, you can’t fix the pass rush. When you miss on pass rushers you can’t draft a TE high. Then to top it off, when you have holes at that many positions, it prevents you from packaging picks to move up for a QB if you needed to. And now you’ve got an injured left tackle (and the backup is garbage) who had already mulled retirement and had only another season left anyways. 
 

Sadly, the Colts never seem to truly progress because we (going back to Grigson era) keep missing on early draft picks and getting stuck in a cycle of always needing at least one good player at 3-4 position groups to truly contend. And we don’t need them all. For example, having elite pass rushers would make you be able to get away with sub-par corners (although the corners can’t rack up penalties either). But you gotta start somewhere. We should honestly be at the point where we’re looking to draft the best TE and replacement for Castonzo in the first 3 rounds but man we need two starting corners and depth, another WR or two, two young edge rushers, etc...

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, shasta519 said:

Yeah...Ballard wouldn't have taken Green in the 2nd round...but definitely by the 5th round...assuming Green was good in interviews...and then he would have tried to turn him into a CB. 

How do we know that?  Based upon being drafted on traits, can we say there has been much difference between Green and Benogu at this point?  I'll give you a third traitsy player drafted in the second round that did nothing, Jerry Hughes.  All that guy did in college was run around the college OT really fast to get to the QB.  Apparently Polian saw something that could be molded.  Never clicked until he got to Buffalo.  Hopefully, Ben turns into Hughes and not TJ Green.  As do Turay and Lewis.

 

 

1 hour ago, shasta519 said:

This stuff isn't easy...and I won't pretend to know more than these guys...but I still have trouble understanding a room full of execs/scouts (for a team that really needs a WR) discussing AJ Brown and watching his tape...where he is putting up huge numbers in the SEC (at age 20 and age 21)...and coming to a consensus that they would rather draft a guy like Rock or Banogu. Brown had the total package...except for top end speed. 

 But here's the deal that folks forget.  At that particular time, that spring, we didn't need a WR with AJ Brown's traits because we had just signed Funchess to start at $16M for one year.  We needed a slot, a WR with traits like Paris Campbell...and not even McLaurin, who was seen as similar to the Funchess/ Brown role. 

 

It was the only point in time during the preceding three years that we did not need the traits that AJ Brown showed, because we had them secured on the roster under a one year contract.

 

Draft for need.  Look at traits. Seems like there is a little too much tunnel vision, or a narrow view to some of these decisions.  But that's just my view from a fans perspective.

 

[shasta519]

2 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Yeah that’s a good point too. I think Ballard and his staff need to start looking at their evaluation process. Why are they hitting on some players but missing on some picks that should be no brainers? Are they over-valuing certain traits and undervaluing others? Are they being to cautious or not cautious enough when it comes to medical? Why do they seem to keep striking out at corner and edge rusher? Because everyone misses sometimes but there’s more questions to be answered when you miss on the consensus players that most analysts have ranked high. Because while scheme does matter, players like AJ Brown should be a fit for anyone. Especially when a guy like Rock who was thought to purely be a press-man corner (although he’s bad either way) gets drafted to a Cover-2 zone team.

 

Another point to make is that when you miss with those first-third round picks, it makes it hard to build a complete team because you continuously fail to upgrade the areas that need to be upgraded. It prevents you from making “luxury” picks. Now credit Ballard because he has fixed the offensive line and the linebacker core, both of which were Achilles heels of this team for years, but corner and WR haven’t been fixed because of misses. Edge rusher also hasn’t been fixed. When you miss on corners, it prevents you from fixing WR. When you miss on WR, you can’t fix the pass rush. When you miss on pass rushers you can’t draft a TE high. Then to top it off, when you have holes at that many positions, it prevents you from packaging picks to move up for a QB if you needed to. And now you’ve got an injured left tackle (and the backup is garbage) who had already mulled retirement and had only another season left anyways. 
 

Sadly, the Colts never seem to truly progress because we (going back to Grigson era) keep missing on early draft picks and getting stuck in a cycle of always needing at least one good player at 3-4 position groups to truly contend. And we don’t need them all. For example, having elite pass rushers would make you be able to get away with sub-par corners (although the corners can’t rack up penalties either). But you gotta start somewhere. We should honestly be at the point where we’re looking to draft the best TE and replacement for Castonzo in the first 3 rounds but man we need two starting corners and depth, another WR or two, two young edge rushers, etc...

 

Ballard has said from day one that wants to build a culture...and that has clearly been a focus in their evaluation process. It's a good thing...but are they putting too much emphasis on that one aspect that ultimately might have little to do with what happens on Sundays? Does the process weed out more talented players because of a perceived slightly better fit in the locker room? And does that "better fit" even matter?

 

It just seems like there would be plenty of hard-working college players that would fit a good locker room culture...and we have seen this throughout the NFL...as the vast majority don't seem to cause any issues. And how many teams actually have bad locker rooms? A few maybe...the teams that are losing and have bad coaching/management? Those teams start winning again...and those problems (mostly) go away. So is bad locker room culture really even that much of a prevalent issue?

 

And how does one prospect get a nod over another? What is the deciding factor if it's not talent? Just seems like some things could be missed with a process that places an importance on a possibly arbitrary aspect like how a player did at the Senior Bowl...or what type of background does this player have. I don't know...I would hope that Ballard and co. are constantly evaluating why they missed on a player or missed out on one.

[chad72]

2 hours ago, shasta519 said:

 

 

Yeah...Polian proved that if you can hit HRs on certain positions...you can build a great team if you have a great QB. He just seemed to lose that touch after the SB win for some reason...and the team couldn't overcome injuries to some of those early picks...and the team fell off a cliff.

 

And Polian is definitely a HOFer. I loved that era of Colts football. But for a guy who would rarely use FA...he needed to hit a bit more than he did...especially after those first 5 years or so. 

 

Polian let his son make more decisions on pulling the trigger on drafting, that cost both of them eventually.

[crazycolt1]

10 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Polian let his son make more decisions on pulling the trigger on drafting, that cost both of them eventually.

Irsay was not paying Polian to groom his son.  

 

[shasta519]

17 minutes ago, DougDew said:

How do we know that?  Based upon being drafted on traits, can we say there has been much difference between Green and Benogu at this point?  I'll give you a third traitsy player drafted in the second round that did nothing, Jerry Hughes.  All that guy did in college was run around the college OT really fast to get to the QB.  Apparently Polian saw something that could be molded.  Never clicked until he got to Buffalo.  Hopefully, Ben turns into Hughes and not TJ Green.  As do Turay and Lewis.

 

 

 But here's the deal that folks forget.  At that particular time, that spring, we didn't need a WR with AJ Brown's traits because we had just signed Funchess to start at $16M for one year.  We needed a slot, a WR with traits like Paris Campbell...and not even McLaurin, who was seen as similar to the Funchess/ Brown role. 

 

It was the only point in time during the preceding three years that we did not need the traits that AJ Brown showed, because we had them secured on the roster under a one year contract.

 

Draft for need.  Look at traits. Seems like there is a little too much tunnel vision, or a narrow view to some of these decisions.  But that's just my view from a fans perspective.

 

 

We can't really say there is a lot of difference between Green and Banogu. They are/were both high-upside projects who some pundits had as mid-Day 4 picks. Turay could probably fit that description as well.

 

It's a little different with Hughes though...as he was stuck behind two HOFers for his first two seasons. And as a prospect, his sack production dwarfed that of Banogu (or Turay)...even if he did just run around slower college OTs. Having 27 sacks in your junior and senior seasons, coupled with a fantastic Combine, is going to get you drafted very early. And I think most pundits saw him as a 1st or 2nd round player. Some even comp'd him to Mathis...who was going to turn 30 soon...so he was meant to be his (or Freeney's) replacement when the time came. And he did start to flash in his 3rd season...but then Grigs made a terrible decision to dump him for a slow run-stopping ILB.

 

But with Banogu...he's not playing behind HOFer DEs. His path to PT does include Justin Houston...but it also only includes guys like Autry, AQM and Lewis. And the fact that he's a healthy scratch in a pivotal matchup (when Autry is out) says a lot. Also...he wasn't really drafted for the purpose of replacing a DE...in fact...he wasn't even drafted to play DE...they saw him as a SAM (potentially in a Bruce Irvin type role). Basically, he was a toolsy project that they loved...but weren't sure how to use yet.

 

And that made, along with something else, made them value Banogu over a bonafide SEC WR who broke out at age 20.

 

Yes, they had signed Funchess...but it was a one-year deal for a post-hype WR who had yet to put it together. Passing on a WR like Brown because he might overlap with a guy like Funchess (and because you might possibly extend Funchess) would be really short-sighted if that was the case...but it wouldn't surprise me either. Not to mention WRs often take a year or two to fully develop...and having too many is a good problem to have. 

 

But if it was because of Funchess...and the need wasn't there...then why draft Banogu into an edge position that was largely full at the time? I think they just liked Campbell better...and were wrong about Brown.

 

And I think it goes back to the process and what they value. Banogu checked every box...he was athletic, had long arms, had played his way up from a small school to a large program (overcame adversity) and had wowed them at the Senior Bowl. The Banogu pick is almost cliche in a way...because he was the edge version of the Rock pick...who was the CB version of the Leonard and Turay picks.

 

 

[csmopar]

50 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Yeah that’s a good point too. I think Ballard and his staff need to start looking at their evaluation process. Why are they hitting on some players but missing on some picks that should be no brainers? Are they over-valuing certain traits and undervaluing others? Are they being to cautious or not cautious enough when it comes to medical? Why do they seem to keep striking out at corner and edge rusher? Because everyone misses sometimes but there’s more questions to be answered when you miss on the consensus players that most analysts have ranked high. Because while scheme does matter, players like AJ Brown should be a fit for anyone. Especially when a guy like Rock who was thought to purely be a press-man corner (although he’s bad either way) gets drafted to a Cover-2 zone team.

 

Another point to make is that when you miss with those first-third round picks, it makes it hard to build a complete team because you continuously fail to upgrade the areas that need to be upgraded. It prevents you from making “luxury” picks. Now credit Ballard because he has fixed the offensive line and the linebacker core, both of which were Achilles heels of this team for years, but corner and WR haven’t been fixed because of misses. Edge rusher also hasn’t been fixed. When you miss on corners, it prevents you from fixing WR. When you miss on WR, you can’t fix the pass rush. When you miss on pass rushers you can’t draft a TE high. Then to top it off, when you have holes at that many positions, it prevents you from packaging picks to move up for a QB if you needed to. And now you’ve got an injured left tackle (and the backup is garbage) who had already mulled retirement and had only another season left anyways. 
 

Sadly, the Colts never seem to truly progress because we (going back to Grigson era) keep missing on early draft picks and getting stuck in a cycle of always needing at least one good player at 3-4 position groups to truly contend. And we don’t need them all. For example, having elite pass rushers would make you be able to get away with sub-par corners (although the corners can’t rack up penalties either). But you gotta start somewhere. We should honestly be at the point where we’re looking to draft the best TE and replacement for Castonzo in the first 3 rounds but man we need two starting corners and depth, another WR or two, two young edge rushers, etc...

Besides Hooker, what “early” pick have we had bust? 
 

furthermoore, Everyone passed in Tom Brady for 5 rounds... Most of the league passed on MJD. Those are just two examples of stud players. That’s why the draft is what it is, a crap shoot.

[DougDew]

2 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, they had signed Funchess...but it was a one-year deal for a post-hype WR who had yet to put it together. Passing on a WR like Brown because he might overlap with a guy like Funchess (and because you might possibly extend Funchess) would be really short-sighted if that was the case...but it wouldn't surprise me either. Not to mention WRs often take a year or two to fully develop...and having too many is a good problem to have. 

 

But if it was because of Funchess...and the need wasn't there...then why draft Banogu into an edge position that was largely full at the time? I think they just liked Campbell better...and were wrong about Brown.

 

 

 

 

Could be.  Also, Deebo was available before the Sweat trade, and he wasn't really a slot either.  If they simply liked Campbell better than Deebo, Brown, Metcalf, and McLaurin, its because they wanted a slot guy more than the Reggie guy at the time.  Let your intuition tell you why that was.  

[GoColts8818]

11 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Besides Hooker, what “early” pick have we had bust? 
 

furthermoore, Everyone passed in Tom Brady for 5 rounds... Most of the league passed on MJD. Those are just two examples of stud players. That’s why the draft is what it is, a crap shoot.

I’d say Banogu is on bust watch.  I am not willing to write a pass rusher off until year three but it’s not looking good.  I also think Campbell’s injury history is something to be concerned about all be it that’s a bust for different reasons.  Also Wilson was a complete bust.  
 

With that said, NO GM hits on all his picks, even his early picks.  That’s why GMs love getting more picks because it gives you more chances to hit.  It’s like lottery tickets the more you have the better your odds are.  
 

That’s what bothers me some people are acting like the fact he isn’t perfect means he sucks.  That’s so not the case.  

[Defjamz26]

22 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

Ballard has said from day one that wants to build a culture...and that has clearly been a focus in their evaluation process. It's a good thing...but are they putting too much emphasis on that one aspect that ultimately might have little to do with what happens on Sundays? Does the process weed out more talented players because of a perceived slightly better fit in the locker room? And does that "better fit" even matter?

 

It just seems like there would be plenty of hard-working college players that would fit a good locker room culture...and we have seen this throughout the NFL...as the vast majority don't seem to cause any issues. And how many teams actually have bad locker rooms? A few maybe...the teams that are losing and have bad coaching/management? Those teams start winning again...and those problems (mostly) go away. So is bad locker room culture really even that much of a prevalent issue?

 

And how does one prospect get a nod over another? What is the deciding factor if it's not talent? Just seems like some things could be missed with a process that places an importance on a possibly arbitrary aspect like how a player did at the Senior Bowl...or what type of background does this player have. I don't know...I would hope that Ballard and co. are constantly evaluating why they missed on a player or missed out on one.

Yeah the character thing to me is starting to get out of hand. At some point just draft the most talented player. I understand he has his boxes that need to be checked, and character is a big one, but at some point you gotta compromise. I get it when you have a guy with multiple suspensions from the team, or an off the field arrest but, if it’s not something major you have to let it slide. Create the culture you want in the locker room and then let the guys handle the rest. 
 

Also I think scheme is important. In fact I agree with Chris Carter who said that roughly 90% of the players in the league are scheme players. But in the same token, they need to not over value scheme and realize what players can flourish anywhere. If you run a base 4-3 then Sweat is a scheme fit, and he should have been a fit here.

 

Man I just have a feeling that the guys we keep mentioning are going to be the new Xavier Rhodes/Landon Collins in terms of being guys that it’ll be hard to live down passing on.

[Defjamz26]

33 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Besides Hooker, what “early” pick have we had bust? 
 

furthermoore, Everyone passed in Tom Brady for 5 rounds... Most of the league passed on MJD. Those are just two examples of stud players. That’s why the draft is what it is, a crap shoot.

The Tom Brady thing is old dude. No one who actually knows football uses that analogy. It’s been established that that was a true anomaly. It’s like asking why no one predicted the Giants to get to and win the Super Bowl in 2008 against an undefeated Patriots team.

 

And I never said bust. I just said people we’ve missed on. Instead of asking who else besides Hooker has busted, the question should be who else that was drafted in the early rounds has played up to the level of Nelson, Leonard, and Smith?

[GoColts8818]

4 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

Every team that Polian left, he left the cupboards dry. 

He road on the backs of Kelly and Manning as far as he could. 

The Bills literally went to the Super Bowl the year after he left.  

[GoColts8818]

11 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

The Tom Brady thing is old dude. No one who actually knows football uses that analogy. It’s been established that that was a true anomaly. It’s like asking why no one predicted the Giants to get to and win the Super Bowl in 2008 against an undefeated Patriots team.

 

And I never said bust. I just said people we’ve missed on. Instead of asking who else besides Hooker has busted, the question should be who else that was drafted in the early rounds has played up to the level of Nelson, Leonard, and Smith?

Well Pittman and Blackmon this year and some would make a case for Taylor as well.  
 

Turey was starting to play at that level when he got hurt.  That’s not his fault and we haven’t really seen how he’s recovered yet.  While the line didn’t have their best game yesterday Lewis has been a big factor this year and Bobby O has played well.  
 

To me it’s more impressive with what he’s done with mid to late round picks with Grover, Mack, Hines, Willis, and, Wilkins all becoming key players on this team.  He’s also found some good undrafted free agents in Pascal, Rigo, and Hot Rod.

 

Hes had his misses but he’s also had his hits too.  No GM is perfect.  People should stop expecting Ballard to be.  

[crazycolt1]

6 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

The Bills literally went to the Super Bowl the year after he left.  

Yeah, Kelly was still there. 

The thing is with Polian you have to acknowledge the negatives along with the positives. 

His total disregard of the Colts future in regards to cap management is never brought up except by those who look at things like that. When he left and the cap space was addressed we have virtually had no offensive players.  How about paying Kerry Collins 4 million dollars for 3 games, 2 TD, 1 int. and a QB rating of 65.9. 

The worst thing he did to the Colts was not taken his son with him. 

One of Irsay's errors in judgment. 

 

[GoColts8818]

15 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Yeah, Kelly was still there. 

The thing is with Polian you have to acknowledge the negatives along with the positives. 

His total disregard of the Colts future in regards to cap management is never brought up except by those who look at things like that. When he left and the cap space was addressed we have virtually had no offensive players.  How about paying Kerry Collins 4 million dollars for 3 games, 2 TD, 1 int. and a QB rating of 65.9. 

The worst thing he did to the Colts was not taken his son with him. 

One of Irsay's errors in judgment. 

 

Because the Colts were in trying to win now mode at the end of Peyton’s career.  That’s what teams do they mortgage their future when their window is closing.  Look at what the Broncos did when they got Peyton.  
 

after watching how Painter played and them not knowing Peyton was going to be out until he had a second surgery I get the Collins move.  He had to try something.  Had he just rolled Painter out there people would be asking why didn’t he try to do something like go get Collins?  

[crazycolt1]

1 hour ago, GoColts8818 said:

Because the Colts were in trying to win now mode at the end of Peyton’s career.  That’s what teams do they mortgage their future when their window is closing.  Look at what the Broncos did when they got Peyton.  
 

after watching how Painter played and them not knowing Peyton was going to be out until he had a second surgery I get the Collins move.  He had to try something.  Had he just rolled Painter out there people would be asking why didn’t he try to do something like go get Collins?  

Since when did Polian give a rat's behind what people thought? 

If you are going to stick up for Polian you have to accept the negative without making excuses for it. 

[DougDew]

2 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

Yeah, Kelly was still there. 

The thing is with Polian you have to acknowledge the negatives along with the positives. 

His total disregard of the Colts future in regards to cap management is never brought up except by those who look at things like that. When he left and the cap space was addressed we have virtually had no offensive players.  How about paying Kerry Collins 4 million dollars for 3 games, 2 TD, 1 int. and a QB rating of 65.9. 

The worst thing he did to the Colts was not taken his son with him. 

One of Irsay's errors in judgment. 

 

Not to get in the middle of things, but just to point something out.  You're stating it like Polian was cramming everything into a short term like he was planning to win now and then parachute out of a falling plane and screwing everybody.  He didn't retire, he was fired.  The future he was supposedly screwing us on would have been his own or his kid's.

 

Obviously he was trying to hold the current team together for whatever window Peyton might have had given his age and rumors of his health ( I believe Peyton selfishly didn't even tell the Colts about the neck officially until that September, which prompted Polian to then go find a starting QB three weeks before the season started...but there were rumors about how serious the neck was before that....it was even in his recent contract he signed that spring or the year before, IIRC).