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1st to 3rd round picks


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36 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Cause they win against mediocore teams. I never get excited about those. I said at beginning of season when they played this stretch we would c who they are. The D was ranked high and everyone drank the kool laid. Look it up. This stretch of games is showing us who the Colts are.

We’re in the key stretch of the season.   We’ve won two: Packers and Titans.   We’ve lost two:  Ravens and Titans.

 

So?    So what?

 

Did you think this was a Super Bowl team?   No.  Basically no one did. 

 

When all is said and done, we will likely finish around 10-6.   Maybe we win a playoff game and maybe not.    We will likely end up roughly the 10th best team in the NFL.   There will be roughly 20 worse teams than the Colts.   Coming off last year and the loss of Luck, as a fan, I’m good with that.

 

If you’re not, oh well.   If others are not, oh well for them too.   That’s life in the NFL. 

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Well I’ve been impressed overall. Throwing out Nelson as you wished.  marlon Mack- enough said  Braden Smith- stud at RT even though he was a Guard.  Darius Leonard- All-Pro. How often do you

This place is becoming unbearable after any loss.  No the Colts didn’t play well today.  It’s disappointing.  It’s the NFL it happens.  Let’s stop being stupid about it.  

I believe this is where u build your team is thru the 1st 3 rounds. What is your assessment of Ballard's ability to pick quality star players. Nelson excluded. Honestly, I am less than impressed so fa

1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

 

 That’s life. 

Exactly, a few weeks ago, people are here were saying if we split the games in the month of November, they’d be happy. Now, many of the Same are in here freaking out that we did. It’s honestly almost unbearable.

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2 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Exactly, a few weeks ago, people are here were saying if we split the games in the month of November, they’d be happy. Now, many of the Same are in here freaking out that we did. It’s honestly almost unbearable.

I was thinking that today, maybe that’s why I am not as upset the Colts still got the split I wanted.  Well now they have another set of hard games.  A split probably won’t get It done here so hopefully the Colts have saved their best ball for the end of the year.

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I could go through all the picks, but it's not necessary.

 

Key takeaways

  1. He turned what is normally 12 picks (1st-3rd rounds)  in 4 years, into 16 picks.
  2. He didn't really have his draft team in 2017
  3. 11/16 have been starter quality, if Turay and Lewis develop, that's 13/16.... So potentially 13 starters in what is normally 12 picks..... think about that. You can debate the quality of starters and all that, but all 11 started significant games and will continue to do so assuming good health.
  4. After the 3rd round, Ballard has found at least 5 starters, and many more key contributors as depth or STs. 
  5. IIRC, Only 5 or 6 players through all 4 years and all rounds are no longer with the team.
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2 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I believe this is where u build your team is thru the 1st 3 rounds. What is your assessment of Ballard's ability to pick quality star players. Nelson excluded. Honestly, I am less than impressed so far. Its been 4 drafts.

Hes been great,  no need to discuss.  Luck retired, colts set back 5 to 10 years.  No matter who Ballard drafts.   This d Is awesome, minus injury. Offense too, minus luck and barring injury, neither can be predicted.....the notion Ballard is less than top tier (everyone misses occassionally) is laughable.

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1 hour ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Shhhhh...dont say that. Ballard is the best GM in football even though routinely he misses on his high picks. But at least he is tranparent

Do you know who else routinely misses on high picks?  (Spoiler Alert:  You Don’t). The other 31 GMs.    You act as if Ballard has a unique problem.   He doesn’t.   It’s the same with all GM’s.

 

That’s why the draft is a crap shoot for so many.   It’s why Ballard is held in such high regard.   He has far fewer misses than most.  
 

You keep thinking you’re saying things that are big, meaningful and profound.   When the opposite is true.   Sorry. 

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2 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Lol. Tough decisions in the off season. I bleieve this team is farther away than most peole think.  I had them at 9 and 7. 

I don’t know who you’ve been reading that you believe they think this team is all that close?   
 

Most people thought this was roughly a 10-6 team.   Some 11-5, others like you, 9-7.    The only thing most (but not all) agreed on was that this team should be in the playoffs.   From there, views differed....

 

We will know soon enough. 

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3 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Killing it on D?  Have u seen this team perform against balanced offensive teams? Cleveland....Tennesse twice and Packers? Wait till they meet the Raiders and Steelers. This D is so over rated and I am not sure why people are so high on Ballards defensive picks. 

 

Like you say the Defense has issues with balanced offenses. It certainly capable of playing well at times, but considering all the resources Ballard put in it it would be a crying shame to be a bad unit. A problem is the scheme. Why put so much resources in Defense and then often play a soft, un-aggresive style? Totally opposite of what Polian did. Ballard has it totally backwards, most of resources in a soft Scheme D and stingy on Offense in a High Scoring passing league. 

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34 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Do you know who else routinely misses on high picks?  (Spoiler Alert:  You Don’t). The other 31 GMs.    You act as if Ballard has a unique problem.   He doesn’t.   It’s the same with all GM’s.

 

That’s why the draft is a crap shoot for so many.   It’s why Ballard is held in such high regard.   He has far fewer misses than most.  
 

You keep thinking you’re saying things that are big, meaningful and profound.   When the opposite is true.   Sorry. 

 

The poster you responded to is Canadian.

 

That's all I needed to know; after he posted that in a previous thread, I knew immediately why his knowledge of American football is lacking.

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13 minutes ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

 

Like you say the Defense has issues with balanced offenses. It certainly capable of playing well at times, but considering all the resources Ballard put in it it would be a crying shame to be a bad unit. A problem is the scheme. Why put so much resources in Defense and then often play a soft, un-aggresive style? Totally opposite of what Polian did. Ballard has it totally backwards, most of resources in a soft Scheme D and stingy on Offense in a High Scoring passing league. 

My real issue is with the Oline and the amount of resources in it. It is playing  very average

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49 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Do you know who else routinely misses on high picks?  (Spoiler Alert:  You Don’t). The other 31 GMs.    You act as if Ballard has a unique problem.   He doesn’t.   It’s the same with all GM’s.

 

That’s why the draft is a crap shoot for so many.   It’s why Ballard is held in such high regard.   He has far fewer misses than most.  
 

You keep thinking you’re saying things that are big, meaningful and profound.   When the opposite is true.   Sorry. 

He said u build in the trenches which he has done. The only problem is that neither the Oline or Dline can go up against elite lines in the NFL.

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17 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

He said u build in the trenches which he has done. The only problem is that neither the Oline or Dline can go up against elite lines in the NFL.

So...   as of this wacky, crazy, insane season, we're not a Super Bowl Caliber team.   At least, not yet.   Wow, that sure is Breaking News!   What’s next?   Water is wet?   Grass is green?    Thanks for the quality tip!    :thmup:

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Just now, NewColtsFan said:

Thanks,  I know....   Moosejaw was the easy giveaway.   I learned all I needed a few weeks ago when he posted and boasted that he loves posting things that upset people here. 
 

I mean, he thinks Leonard is over-rated and he doesn’t like the Nelson pick because he doesn’t want to pay him his big contract.    
 

He’s the very definition of a troll. 

 

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17 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

So...   as of this wacky, crazy, insane season, we're not a Super Bowl Caliber team.   At least, not yet.   Wow, that sure is Breaking News!   What’s next?   Water is wet?   Grass is green?    Thanks for the quality tip!    :thmup:

Hmmmmmm. So the future is bright as u c it??

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5 hours ago, csmopar said:

Well I’ve been impressed overall. Throwing out Nelson as you wished. 

marlon Mack- enough said
 Braden Smith- stud at RT even though he was a Guard. 
Darius Leonard- All-Pro. How often do you get a rookie All Pro in the Second round

Bobby O- looks to be coming on solidly. 

Rock Ya Sin- okay, I’ll give you this one. Not impressed. 
Jonathan Taylor- too early to call but looks serviceable down the road.

michael Pitman - Same as with Taylor except I think he’ll have a bigger impact sooner than Taylor.

julian Blackman-a front runner for DROY 

Paris Campbell, another disappointment thus far that I’ll give ya. 
Buckner- while technically not a draft selection, rarely does a trade like this work out like it has so far. Buckner is a HUGE WIN. 
 

 

 

You forgot Banogu and I don't even blame you 

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30 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Hmmmmmm. So the future is bright as u c it??

Where did I say that?

 

But,  as long as Ballard and Dodd have their team in place, I feel good about our chances to be highly competitive.   The only problems we’ve had have been when we’ve been without Andrew Luck, in 17 and 19.

 

When we’ve had Luck or Rivers we are a very competitive team.

 

Just look at some of the recent Super Bowl participants.  Only KC is really doing well.  The Pats are struggling.   So are the Rams and the Eagles.  Seattle has been hot and cold.   Same with SF.   My point is...   this game is really hard.  Staying at the top is hard.  Being elite year after year is hard.  
 

But not only do you casually dismiss achievement, but you write off players as busts who have been mostly injured or haven’t been with the team long enough to know.  You’re jumping to conclusions, and there’s a good chance some of those conclusions could be wrong.  
 

So yes, I like our future.  I like our GM and the front office he has.  I like his drafting and I mostly like his free agents.   As a fan, I’ll take our chances here....   I’m not predicting a Super Bowl, but I think we will have a good team moving forward.  

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8 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

My real issue is with the Oline and the amount of resources in it. It is playing  very average

It seems you have issues with everything, so why even watch them? Go watch the Steelers or the Chiefs. 

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12 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

U forgot Brasham...Wilson.....Hooker....Turay........and Lewis. Meh

people like Hooker, Turay, & Campbell cant be used against Ballard.. tho i wish he wouldve just drafted DK instead of PC, but you cant use player injuries against the GM. its football. you cant see into the future to know which players career is going to be blessed with no major injuries in a physical contact sport. Hooker was looking like a DROY candidate before he blew his knee out, was never the same again, plus the system change. Turay was 2nd in the league for pass rush grade last year before he got hurt, hes missed alot of time and will be rusty for a while now. Campbell when hes actually on the field looks electric and makes plays, but hes just made of glass, and how can you predict that? his only injury in college was an ankle sprain. anybody can know how to draft with hindsight. he drafts more hits than misses. he just needs a new franchise QB since his retired on him.

 

whens the last time youve ever seen the Colts have a #1 ranked defense? theyre all Ballards players.

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13 hours ago, csmopar said:

Well I’ve been impressed overall. Throwing out Nelson as you wished. 

marlon Mack- enough said
 Braden Smith- stud at RT even though he was a Guard. 
Darius Leonard- All-Pro. How often do you get a rookie All Pro in the Second round

Bobby O- looks to be coming on solidly. 

Rock Ya Sin- okay, I’ll give you this one. Not impressed. 
Jonathan Taylor- too early to call but looks serviceable down the road.

michael Pitman - Same as with Taylor except I think he’ll have a bigger impact sooner than Taylor.

julian Blackman-a front runner for DROY 

Paris Campbell, another disappointment thus far that I’ll give ya. 
Buckner- while technically not a draft selection, rarely does a trade like this work out like it has so far. Buckner is a HUGE WIN. 
 

 

You won this with this post.   Funny that he doesn't want to include the Nelson pick.  I would count that as Ballard pulled off a great trade and still got the player he wanted.  I would also count Buckner has he is who we got for our 1st round pick.

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11 hours ago, csmopar said:

Can someone point me to a GM that has hit on 100 percent of all their draft picks? By that I mean superstars at every pick?

That’s not what people are asking for. Their asking for him to hit more on his early picks which is reasonable. I mean from 2018-2019 he’s had a combined 7 second round draft picks and hit on 3 of them. And 3/7 wouldn’t be too bad if the the other guys were at least just average (and maybe Lewis is), but these guys are below average. And I’m giving him a pass on 2017 because those were 3-4 players fit for Pagano’s scheme.  But 3/7 in itself is pretty bad. If you have 7 picks in the 2nd round over a 2 year span, you have to be better than that. Your first pick in 2019 was a corner who looks absolutely awful up to this point...and he’s your STARTER! You took a super raw edge rusher who didn’t get taught how to rush the passer in college high in the 2nd round when AJ Brown was on the board and you knew you had an aging TY Hilton. Instead you go with the more raw receiver in Campbell who wasn’t even the best receiver on Ohio State.

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13 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

We’re in the key stretch of the season.   We’ve won two: Packers and Titans.   We’ve lost two:  Ravens and Titans.

 

So?    So what?

 

Did you think this was a Super Bowl team?   No.  Basically no one did. 

 

When all is said and done, we will likely finish around 10-6.   Maybe we win a playoff game and maybe not.    We will likely end up roughly the 10th best team in the NFL.   There will be roughly 20 worse teams than the Colts.   Coming off last year and the loss of Luck, as a fan, I’m good with that.

 

If you’re not, oh well.   If others are not, oh well for them too.   That’s life in the NFL. 

10th best team....hmmmm. So what does that mean for the future of our franchise? Will we move into elite status superbowl contenders in the next year or 2 or will they  regress and slide back to 20th best team?

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14 hours ago, DougDew said:

At the crux of this OP, IMO, is Ballard's evaluation and drafting of college talent. 

 

Guys like Buckner, Houston, and Rhodes ..and even Autry...have been great additions, but that's a different type of talent evaluation because those are known good NFL players before they got here.

 

Rounds 1 through 3 for four drafts equals 12 picks, and he traded out of pick 3 to take a G and got two more picks, and passed on Montez Sweat to get another second rounder.

 

That's 15 picks to choose college players in rounds 1 through 3.  Say 14 if you discard the Buckner pick.  Players: Nelson, Leonard, Smith, Blackmon, and Pittman are good players.  The rest are only average so far.  Five good players out of 14 picks.  Passing on AJ Brown and Sweat look to be bad decisions, especially since they were high value positions of need at the time.....expensive positions.

 

3 of the 5 good players are a G, a S, and an ILB...the lower valued positions...also the RT not a LT, all not expensive positions.

 

Please check my math and my player list.

 

And folks are right, including Venturi.  Leonard disappears too often.  He hasn't really lived up to his rookie year performance, IMO.

 

Even if you take the 2017 draft off the books for a different scheme, which is logical, it is hard to get past missing on Montez Sweat and A J Brown for me with little to show for with Banogu and Campbell. Thankfully, Lewis is starting to come along a bit. 

 

WR, LT, Pass Rusher - premium positions in the NFL have not been upgraded/stocked enough where Reich can run any style of offense and we can make plays on pass offense or defense to cause issues for elite teams. You can get by with slightly less defensive talent if you have premium players on pass offense and defense, IMO. Polian's tenure showed that.

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6 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Even if you take the 2017 draft off the books for a different scheme, which is logical, it is hard to get past missing on Montez Sweat and A J Brown for me with little to show for with Banogu and Campbell. Thankfully, Lewis is starting to come along a bit. 

 

WR, LT, Pass Rusher - premium positions in the NFL have not been upgraded/stocked enough where Reich can run any style of offense and we can make plays on pass offense or defense to cause issues for elite teams. You can get by with slightly less defensive talent if you have premium players on pass offense and defense, IMO. Polian's tenure showed that.

What makes the Sweat and Brown decisions worse is that those were two positions the Colts have needed for years......ever since Reggie and Mathis started slowing down.  And we probably still do.  

 

I know Sweat had some medical concerns but the dude was also ranked in the top 20 or top 15 players before the concern.  The Washington GM traded away a second round pick to go up and get him, so its not like Sweat was a guy who was picked as a flyer.

 

I don't understand what the team is trying to be.  A zone based defense means you value corners less and pass rush even more, so why pass on a DE for a CB at the same basic spot?  If the talent is even and you play a 43, you take the pass rusher.

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15 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I believe this is where u build your team is thru the 1st 3 rounds. What is your assessment of Ballard's ability to pick quality star players. Nelson excluded. Honestly, I am less than impressed so far. Its been 4 drafts.

 

Your post is going to get a lot of disagreement. But while I think Ballard has done a good job overall...I do think people deify him way too much. 

 

Nelson was a fine pick. He was a generational talent at G...possibly the safest pick in recent years. Leonard was a HR...no doubt about it. Smith was a very good pick...with a bit of luck thrown in (that he was able to play RT when he was drafted to play RG).

 

Because of those three picks in the same draft...it's probably not easy to have an objective debate...and I get it. But after that Smith pick...you have Turay, Lewis, Rock, Banogu, Campbell, Pittman, Taylor, Okereke and Blackmon. Objectively...some good and a lot of not-so-good (so far).

 

I think the big takeaway is the sheer number of picks Ballard has had in those rounds. TWELVE picks in the past 3 years without having a 1st round pick one of those years (Buckner trade)...that's pretty incredible. And that's a credit to Ballard for making that deal with NYJ...but it was also made possible by a terrible 2017 season...which included a very bad draft. 

 

If we look at the overall hit rate of those 12 picks...it will probably be 7/12 when it's all said and done...some of the recent picks will develop and some won't. I don't know how that compares to other GMs...but I am guessing pretty favorably. However, Ballard has (unsurprisingly) not replicated the success he had in 2018...and has missed out on some great players as well. Overall...I think he's been good that past 3 years...except for the first 2 rounds of 2019.

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14 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

I don’t know who you’ve been reading that you believe they think this team is all that close?   
 

Most people thought this was roughly a 10-6 team.   Some 11-5, others like you, 9-7.    The only thing most (but not all) agreed on was that this team should be in the playoffs.   From there, views differed....

 

We will know soon enough. 

I thought this was a 7-9 team so they are exceeding expectations. I’m very happy with the teams performance so far.  

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3 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

That’s not what people are asking for. Their asking for him to hit more on his early picks which is reasonable. I mean from 2018-2019 he’s had a combined 7 second round draft picks and hit on 3 of them. And 3/7 wouldn’t be too bad if the the other guys were at least just average (and maybe Lewis is), but these guys are below average. And I’m giving him a pass on 2017 because those were 3-4 players fit for Pagano’s scheme.  But 3/7 in itself is pretty bad. If you have 7 picks in the 2nd round over a 2 year span, you have to be better than that. Your first pick in 2019 was a corner who looks absolutely awful up to this point...and he’s your STARTER! You took a super raw edge rusher who didn’t get taught how to rush the passer in college high in the 2nd round when AJ Brown was on the board and you knew you had an aging TY Hilton. Instead you go with the more raw receiver in Campbell who wasn’t even the best receiver on Ohio State.

 

Yeah...these debates tend to devolve into strawman arguments and false choices. There's nothing wrong with objectively looking at the picks...and lamenting misses. 

 

The first two rounds of the 2019 draft were not good. Passing on Sweat to trade back...and then passing on Brown and Metcalf...3x (if you include the tradeback from #40 to #44). I think it implies they had Rock and  Banogu atop their boards. From what I read...they were even considering Rock at #27. So I think we can judge those evaluations (up to this point).

 

Getting the #34 pick out of that trade back was nice...but Pittman is going to have to be a Pro Bowler for that trade-back to not be a bad move IMO.

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Just for some perspective, here are the first four years' picks from Hall Of Fame GM Bill Polian.  Not every pick is a home run.  Even for the best GM's.

 

1998 Draft

1/1 QB Peyton Manning - hall of fame, multiple pro bowls

2/32 WR Jerome Pathon - meh, didn't last long

3/71 WR E. G. Green - better than meh, but nothing to shout about

4/93 G Steve McKinney - didn't last, injury issues i think

5/135 LB Antony Jordan - meh

7/190 G Aaron Taylor - nada

7/231 DB Corey Gaines - nada

1999 Draft

1/4 RB Edgerrin James - hall of fame, multiple pro bowls

2/36 LB Mike Peterson - pretty good, left via free agency

3/63 G Brandon Burlesworth - backup, meh

4/96 CB Paul Miranda - meh

5/139 DE Brad Scioli - started some games, but not amazing

7/210 P Hunter Smith - long time punter

7/250 LB Corey Terry - meh

2000 Draft

1/28 LB Rob Morris - multiple year starter, but did not fit into scheme

2/59 LB Marcus Washington - pro bowl one year, but did not last long

3/91 CB David Macklin - high hopes, but had injuries

4/122 DT Josh Williams - meh

5/138 C Matt Johnson - super meh

7/235 DT Rob Renes - meh

7/238 CB Rodregis Brooks - backup and meh

2001 Draft

1/30 WR Reggie Wayne - multiple pro bowls, potential hall of fame

2/37 S Idrees Bashir - multiple year starter

3/91 S Corey Bird - backup

4/118 T Ryan Diem - multiple year starter

5/152 CB Raymond Walls - meh

6/193 S Jason Doering - meh

7/220 G Rick DeMulling - started some games, but not memorable

 

Three absolute strikes.  Eight good players.  Obviously a better record than CB's first four years.  But CB isn't doing too badly by comparison.

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3 hours ago, Myles said:

You won this with this post.   Funny that he doesn't want to include the Nelson pick.  I would count that as Ballard pulled off a great trade and still got the player he wanted.  I would also count Buckner has he is who we got for our 1st round pick.

 

3 hours ago, Dingus McGirt said:

You're right, MJC.

 

Ballard sucks.  Irsay needs to dump him NOW and beg Grigson to come back.  

Beginning to wonder if MJC is Ryan Grigson himself....

3 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

That’s not what people are asking for. Their asking for him to hit more on his early picks which is reasonable. I mean from 2018-2019 he’s had a combined 7 second round draft picks and hit on 3 of them. And 3/7 wouldn’t be too bad if the the other guys were at least just average (and maybe Lewis is), but these guys are below average. And I’m giving him a pass on 2017 because those were 3-4 players fit for Pagano’s scheme.  But 3/7 in itself is pretty bad. If you have 7 picks in the 2nd round over a 2 year span, you have to be better than that. Your first pick in 2019 was a corner who looks absolutely awful up to this point...and he’s your STARTER! You took a super raw edge rusher who didn’t get taught how to rush the passer in college high in the 2nd round when AJ Brown was on the board and you knew you had an aging TY Hilton. Instead you go with the more raw receiver in Campbell who wasn’t even the best receiver on Ohio State.

He’s not been perfect and I’d like for him to be better and take less projects but compared to what we had with the prior regime, it’s a night and day difference. 

 

so I chose to do some research. This comes from Forbes, Bleacher Report and Walter Football as none of them had complete stats by themselves. 
 

The average career length in the NFL is 3.3 years. So since all the above defined draft success as the percentage of starters from each round starting for their team that chose them, I did the same and looked at data showing the percentages of starters that came from each round for the last 3 years. This includes all 3 phases, O and D, and Special Teams. 

Per the above sources: percentages of starts by players taken in each respective rounds combined since 2017. 
 

1st Round- 29.9 percent league wide.

2nd Round- 19.4 percent league wide

3rd Round - 11.6 percent league wide.

4-7- 26 percent combined

 Undrafted- 13.1 percent. League wide.

 

 

now for Ballard, taking ONLY his picks, not previous regime players that are still on the team. Special teams starters are NOT included in this. Just first string O and D. 

 

1st Round- Hooker,Nelson,Buckner(via trade): 2/3 currently starting, 1 on IR that was a starter but that is likely gone at the end of the year, so I’m counting that as a loss. 66.7 percent. 
 

2nd round: 10 picks: 7/10 have become starters. 70 percent. 
 

3rd round: 3 picks, 2/3 starters, that being Bobby O and Blackmon. 66.7%

 

4th thru 7 rounds: 5/24 or 20.8 percent(this number would jump a few points if I counted special teams.)

 

Yes, Ballard is above the league Average in getting starting results in rounds 1-3 but below average 4-7....

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

10th best team....hmmmm. So what does that mean for the future of our franchise? Will we move into elite status superbowl contenders in the next year or 2 or will they  regress and slide back to 20th best team?

Seriously doubt we will slide back.    And I remain hopeful we will get better.  As a fan, I sleep well knowing my favorite team has one of the best front offices.  That while they won’t be perfect, they will make mostly very good decisions.   I don’t fear more Grigson-like personnel decisions.   I don’t share your views on our draft picks. 
 

As a fan, I like the journey.  I look forward to the process being played out.  When we have success, I enjoy it.   When we don’t, I mostly chalk it up to the fact that the NFL is perhaps the most highly competitive sports league going.   I try to enjoy the ride.   That’s my view. 

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29 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

Yeah...these debates tend to devolve into strawman arguments and false choices. There's nothing wrong with objectively looking at the picks...and lamenting misses. 

 

The first two rounds of the 2019 draft were not good. Passing on Sweat to trade back...and then passing on Brown and Metcalf...3x (if you include the tradeback from #40 to #44). I think it implies they had Rock and  Banogu atop their boards. From what I read...they were even considering Rock at #27. So I think we can judge those evaluations (up to this point).

 

Getting the #34 pick out of that trade back was nice...but Pittman is going to have to be a Pro Bowler for that trade-back to not be a bad move IMO.

We didn’t pass on Sweat.   We did what almost every NFL team did....  we took him off our board because of his heart condition.   Those calls are typically made by the owner and team doctor,  much less by the general manager. 

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19 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:

 

1999 Draft

1/4 RB Edgerrin James - hall of fame, multiple pro bowls

2/36 LB Mike Peterson - pretty good, left via free agency

3/63 G Brandon Burlesworth - backup, meh

 

 

 

Brandon was killed in a car wreck before training camp his rookie year.

 

 

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2 hours ago, DougDew said:

What makes the Sweat and Brown decisions worse is that those were two positions the Colts have needed for years......ever since Reggie and Mathis started slowing down.  And we probably still do.  

 

I know Sweat had some medical concerns but the dude was also ranked in the top 20 or top 15 players before the concern.  The Washington GM traded away a second round pick to go up and get him, so its not like Sweat was a guy who was picked as a flyer.

 

I don't understand what the team is trying to be.  A zone based defense means you value corners less and pass rush even more, so why pass on a DE for a CB at the same basic spot?  If the talent is even and you play a 43, you take the pass rusher.

 

Passing on Sweat made little sense...and I don't think Ballard gets a pass. Could you imagine if he had picked Sweat...people here wouldn't shut up about how great he was for picking Sweat.

 

But he didn't pick Sweat. IF Sweat was off the board because of some misleading health info...then Ballard had bad info. Also...Ballard drafted Hooker at #13 (missed the Combine and had surgeries for a torn labrum in his hip and a sports hernia); Turay (missed half of his games in his sophomore and junior seasons); and Blackmon (was recovering from an ACL tear in December). Ballard has not shown himself to be averse to taking health risks in the draft...even as early Day 1 or Day 2...so I am not buying that. 

 

And IF Sweat was down their board...then it was poor evaluation. 

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2 hours ago, DougDew said:

What makes the Sweat and Brown decisions worse is that those were two positions the Colts have needed for years......ever since Reggie and Mathis started slowing down.  And we probably still do.  

 

I know Sweat had some medical concerns but the dude was also ranked in the top 20 or top 15 players before the concern.  The Washington GM traded away a second round pick to go up and get him, so its not like Sweat was a guy who was picked as a flyer.

 

I don't understand what the team is trying to be.  A zone based defense means you value corners less and pass rush even more, so why pass on a DE for a CB at the same basic spot?  If the talent is even and you play a 43, you take the pass rusher.

Sweat was not an option for the Colts.  Not almost every other team in the NFL.   He had a heart condition.  That’s why a top-10 pick fell to pick 26.   Typically the owner and team doctor decides on guys like that, not the general manager.   Almost every team bypassed Sweat.  Because he wasn’t on the boards for most every team.   

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21 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:

Just for some perspective, here are the first four years' picks from Hall Of Fame GM Bill Polian.  Not every pick is a home run.  Even for the best GM's.

 

1998 Draft

1/1 QB Peyton Manning - hall of fame, multiple pro bowls

2/32 WR Jerome Pathon - meh, didn't last long

3/71 WR E. G. Green - better than meh, but nothing to shout about

4/93 G Steve McKinney - didn't last, injury issues i think

5/135 LB Antony Jordan - meh

7/190 G Aaron Taylor - nada

7/231 DB Corey Gaines - nada

1999 Draft

1/4 RB Edgerrin James - hall of fame, multiple pro bowls

2/36 LB Mike Peterson - pretty good, left via free agency

3/63 G Brandon Burlesworth - backup, meh

4/96 CB Paul Miranda - meh

5/139 DE Brad Scioli - started some games, but not amazing

7/210 P Hunter Smith - long time punter

7/250 LB Corey Terry - meh

2000 Draft

1/28 LB Rob Morris - multiple year starter, but did not fit into scheme

2/59 LB Marcus Washington - pro bowl one year, but did not last long

3/91 CB David Macklin - high hopes, but had injuries

4/122 DT Josh Williams - meh

5/138 C Matt Johnson - super meh

7/235 DT Rob Renes - meh

7/238 CB Rodregis Brooks - backup and meh

2001 Draft

1/30 WR Reggie Wayne - multiple pro bowls, potential hall of fame

2/37 S Idrees Bashir - multiple year starter

3/91 S Corey Bird - backup

4/118 T Ryan Diem - multiple year starter

5/152 CB Raymond Walls - meh

6/193 S Jason Doering - meh

7/220 G Rick DeMulling - started some games, but not memorable

 

Three absolute strikes.  Eight good players.  Obviously a better record than CB's first four years.  But CB isn't doing too badly by comparison.

You're discounting Mike Petersen, who left for a big contract....Marcus Washington, who was a darn near pro-bowler with the Redskins...David Macklin was a decent zone corner....

 

Burlsworth was killed before pre season, but was thought of as a steal (but we won't count him.

 

Outside of round 3. McKinney was the first pick of the 4th round....the third day of the draft and was traded up to get.  He started immediately and left for a big contract via FA.  Ryan Ziem was a 4th rounder who has played as well as Smith, our second rounder and I believe earned two new contracts.

 

To me, you list shows that Polian had about 9 good players out of 12 picks.   Got a great G and RT in round 4....which is where you draft Gs and RTs.

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24 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:

Just for some perspective, here are the first four years' picks from Hall Of Fame GM Bill Polian.  Not every pick is a home run.  Even for the best GM's.

 

1998 Draft

1/1 QB Peyton Manning - hall of fame, multiple pro bowls

2/32 WR Jerome Pathon - meh, didn't last long

3/71 WR E. G. Green - better than meh, but nothing to shout about

4/93 G Steve McKinney - didn't last, injury issues i think

5/135 LB Antony Jordan - meh

7/190 G Aaron Taylor - nada

7/231 DB Corey Gaines - nada

1999 Draft

1/4 RB Edgerrin James - hall of fame, multiple pro bowls

2/36 LB Mike Peterson - pretty good, left via free agency

3/63 G Brandon Burlesworth - backup, meh

4/96 CB Paul Miranda - meh

5/139 DE Brad Scioli - started some games, but not amazing

7/210 P Hunter Smith - long time punter

7/250 LB Corey Terry - meh

2000 Draft

1/28 LB Rob Morris - multiple year starter, but did not fit into scheme

2/59 LB Marcus Washington - pro bowl one year, but did not last long

3/91 CB David Macklin - high hopes, but had injuries

4/122 DT Josh Williams - meh

5/138 C Matt Johnson - super meh

7/235 DT Rob Renes - meh

7/238 CB Rodregis Brooks - backup and meh

2001 Draft

1/30 WR Reggie Wayne - multiple pro bowls, potential hall of fame

2/37 S Idrees Bashir - multiple year starter

3/91 S Corey Bird - backup

4/118 T Ryan Diem - multiple year starter

5/152 CB Raymond Walls - meh

6/193 S Jason Doering - meh

7/220 G Rick DeMulling - started some games, but not memorable

 

Three absolute strikes.  Eight good players.  Obviously a better record than CB's first four years.  But CB isn't doing too badly by comparison.

 

Polian was a bit overrated as a drafter...if you look at his overall tenure. He hit enough HRs though...especially early on...that the Colts were a SB contender with the GOAT each year. But his final 5 drafts were awful and left the cupboard completely bare for his successor...who then did the same thing lol.

 

I actually think Ballard is better than Polian...at least on the defensive side. And he is definitely more daft at maneuvering around the draft. But Polian's legacy is defined by Manning...and Ballard's will be by a QB as well.

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    • https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/cornerback/   I get what you're saying and tend to agree.  There may be some cuts so the list in the link above may not be 100% complete... but we have a pretty good idea of who is available in FA (another factor is if any of those guys get franchise tagged).     On the list above Xavier Rhodes, most of the guys are 29 or older (the exceptions being Mike Hilton 27, Michael Davis 26 and Mackensie Alexander 28).  So, not exactly a lot of quality 'young' guys out there (as of now anyway).  Several of the guys above Rhodes who are 29 are older also missed time in 2020 to injury (Josh Norman, Richard Sherman, DJ Hayden, Hilton, Alexander, Kevin Johnson, Brian Poole).  Then, Patrick Peterson is same age as Xavier, but he made >$11 mil more than him last year.   Ballard definitely seems to prefer taller guys on the outside CB spots... Hilton at 5'9" doesn't really fit Ballard's prototype... Davis at 6'2" seems to, and Alexander at 5'10" is kind of border line.  Ronald Darby (27) right below Rhodes is 5'11" so another borderline guy.     Obviously, Rhodes will have some ability to test the market... but I doubt he's going to be getting any offers which are significantly more than what we paid him last year.     Rhodes has familiarity with our DB coach from prior to Indy.  He fits our scheme well.  He played well here in 2020 and we likely won't have to break the bank on him.  I don't know we'll find a better option in FA based on who is available now.   CB is definitely a position where we need help (especially if we lose Rhodes)... but we also need to do something to address the QB issue, the OT void left by AC's retirement, overall OL depth, and DL (especially with Houston and Autry both being FAs and both being on the wrong side of 30).  More likely than not, we need to do something to address the WR position and TE position (could be as easy as resigning MAC and Burton).  We only have so many draft picks, and my guess is we'll go OT early... plus, CB is one of the toughest positions to thrive at as a rookie.     Ideally, we'd get younger across the board.. but we probably won't be able to do that... I could be wrong, but my guess it that we'll bring Rhodes back on another short term deal (maybe 2 years this time).    
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