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Colts 2021 Salary Cap Forecast/Discussion **Updated pg 6**


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44 minutes ago, w87r said:

you really ready to do that?

 

Its not a lot of money, hence the reason I really wanted to start a discussion about it. To show just how up against the cap we really are.

 

 

Unfortunately covid took a lot of money from the cap. Without the drop we would have closer to $100m ro spend and probably more because it would of went up next hear instead of dropping.

 

 

Again though, a lot of teams are in way worse shape than us. There will be a lot of Cap casualties on other teams. Teams that will be $30-$40m over the cap before they make any moves.

By the way, is the 175 million a fact or an assumption? I thought 175 was a minimum?  

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If you are going to do that you already have the QB to develop in Eason.  I don’t see the Colts trading for a vet AND drafting another QB.

Not necessarily. It's what they've already done to set the floor at $175m for 2021. They're borrowing cap space from previous seasons in an undetermined amount to prevent the cap from shrinking to the

Relly hoping for Stafford($20m), or Darnold($4.7m).     If not them, then Rookie to compete with Eason would be good with me.

7 minutes ago, JPFolks said:

Why would you need to get rid of Mack? We have other draft needs, he's a great team guy, when he's healthy he's a starting caliber back who can split time with our 3 headed monster. There are a HUGE number of top RBs going to be FAs this year meaning we can get Mack at a low low price. It makes zero sense not to bring him back on a one year deal that will be super cheap because there's a literal flood of top RBs hitting the market.  Hilton obviously would have to take a 1yr Farewell deal, and that is only if he stays healthy the rest of the year and starts to click with Rivers.  I still think Rivers and Reich are more to blame than TY.  If Rhodes and Carrie finish the season on par with where they are right now, why wouldn't we bring them back? Carrie would be a one year Vet minimum-ish deal, but Rhodes would likely have to be a two year deal.  Ya Sin is STILL not where he needs to be in my opinion.  The jury is still out.  If Rhodes finishes strong, he should be back.  And why do folks seem to forget we desperatrely need a LT? I don't get it.  Whether AC finishes his contract or not, we need to get a top notch LT more than anything else except QB.  

 

And IF Rivers is done or Eason shows no promise (even if Rivers finishes with us) we need a QB of the future which likely means trading up in the draft might be a thing and may cost us at least our 1 and 2 plus other stuff.  We have good players that we should sign.  If we're a playoff team (TBD) then we need to keep and reward those guys who got us there.  That is what Ballard say's he's all about, resigning our own guys rather than other people's guys.  

Its just not that easy JP. Its not that we wouldn't love to bring these guys back. We are juat literally not going to be able to bring some of them back.

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45 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I like Carrie a lot. Rhodes wont b cheap. Something bout Stallworth intrigues me. I see potential. I think they will try and get Houston and Autry signed. Turay is coming off injury and cant stay healthy. I would keep Walker as he can play all linebacker positions. Sign Burton to a friendly contract. The rest are expendable

Yeah, I don't get letting Walker go unless he gets a monster offer elsewhere we can't handle. People think Leonard runs the D but Walker is their leader. 

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40 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

His contract this year, and the impact to carryover for next year.

That is what I am not understanding... "carryover next season" is that salary that carries over or are you saying something else, please explain. 

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Just now, JPFolks said:

By the way, is the 175 million a fact or an assumption? I thought 175 was a minimum?  

$175m is the floor level od how far the cap can drop. 

 

Hopefully it comes in higher, but at this point it is an unknown and have to assume that will be the case.

 

Hopefully it comes im at $185-$190m. 

 

 

Im pretty sure it will be close to that number.

I think that it will probably stay low going into 2022 as well, bit that is to be seen.

 

The NFL and NFLPA just had to set a mark. Anything lower than that would be catastrophic to the league. More than it will be anyway.

 

 

What Im trying to say ia all the money lost wont be made up even at that $175m mark so there will most likely be a couple years to recoup it.

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11 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

The one thing I keep thinking about is how Covid is really going to effect the Cap.  We are not the only team that will have to cut players they would like to keep.  Those players cut will have to take less money if they want to remain in the league.  If I'm their agent I wouldn't want them signing long term deals with a reduced cap.  I can see a lot of one year deals going out maybe two if they view you as a contender.  Maybe that's why Grover signed now knowing we were his best chance at a good contract.  So the numbers required to sign a talented player should be dropping in the short term IMO.  That's why Kenny Stills intrigues me now.  He is only 27 and if he gets through waivers he would be an ideal player to take a chance on.  Sign him for the remainder of this year and next year as well.  Ballard has had great luck with Ebron and Burton.  Maybe the strategy could work for Stills.  At least we would have an experienced WR under contract in case TY falls through.  The bottom line for me is the players being cut are going to have to take less money to stay in the league.  And they will want a short deal so they can become free again when the cap goes up.  We have a lot more going for us than most teams.  I feel confident we are in good hands with Ballard running the show. 

This is correct, long term deals will be few and far between this offseason.

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3 minutes ago, w87r said:

You never know. Hopefully thats the case, but even if he came in at $15m, money is still tight.

 

Would leave us with $45m to sign 20+ players.

 

I want Rivers back as of now, as I think he gives us the best chance to compete this year and next.

 

 

 

A e that has been floated around for ua has been Sam Darnold. If we were to make a deal for him, he would only have a cap hit of around $4.7m for us next year. So IDK, if Rivers is gone that is definitely something to look into.

the good news is  14 of the players can be signed for one or two million a year .   its just gonna come down to cutting hilton then  picking between autry and houston .  also picking between rhodes and carrie   . plus walker .  if we lose walker hilton carrie and houston  it would suck but at linebacker we have depth and the draft can get us a pass rusher corner and wr in the first three rounds but that is wish full thinking .  without hitting on the draft the team next year is gonna be not as good unless young guys step up at those positions lost . if turray and ben take a step or patmon and cambell we could be okay .

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3 minutes ago, JPFolks said:

That is what I am not understanding... "carryover next season" is that salary that carries over or are you saying something else, please explain. 

carryover is how much cap space a team has remaining from the prior season.

 

Currently the Colts have close to $11m carrying over. Which is already figured into the $67m.

 

If we would of released Brissett, we would be careying over closer to $24m giving us $80m to spend.

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32 minutes ago, w87r said:

There is no money to sign a big name anything this offseason.

 

Although, like Ive said in a few post, we are in better shape than most teams.

 

I imagine a lot of players thay would be signing big long tern contracts will end up signing cheaper 1 yr deals and hit the market again in 2022, when hopefully the cap will jp back up.

That is interesting. If WE can't sign a big name, who the hell can? So these players will ALL be forced to take less and less money at the top of the market pushes down to even less money on the bottom. We should easily be able to get cheap contracts (compared to a normal year)  A guy like Hilton might sign for next to nothing unless he plans to retire. He's not going anywhere else. 

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33 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

It's not that simple. If we lose in the playoffs because our D plays like they have the last two games in the 1st half, that's not a QB issue. And if Eason isn't a no-brainer, the decision on Rivers is even harder. 

 

And it's really hard to gauge Eason this year. No preseason games, covid restrictions during practice, etc.. We don't even no how many reps he's getting in practice, or if he's even running most of the scout teams. Eason may well be our future, but none of know, and it's likely the FO has less of an understanding than they might in a typical year. 

 

JB should only factor is he's cheap AND if either Rivers or Eason isn't in the plans. And he probably shouldn't factor if they give up on Eason either. They'll need to find another young guy to develop.

That's just it, he WILL be dirt cheap by default because no one will have money.  If Eason has a shot to be something, he takes over, and they once again hedge their bets with a top 1/3rd back up who could win 9 games with our good defense and 7 playoff spots. I believe this year is an outlier and 9 wins usually gets into the playoffs over the long term. . 

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2 minutes ago, JPFolks said:

That is interesting. If WE can't sign a big name, who the hell can? So these players will ALL be forced to take less and less money at the top of the market pushes down to even less money on the bottom. We should easily be able to get cheap contracts (compared to a normal year)  A guy like Hilton might sign for next to nothing unless he plans to retire. He's not going anywhere else. 

I kinda circled my way back around at the end of that.

 

When I said big name I was really meaning big long term contracts, which you expect top FA to sign. Im sure the top of the top will still get some big offers but everyone else will have to settle.

 

Players will be signing 1yr deals for low deals, we have so many of our own guys to sign that our money will be low. So it will be tough, but again it is going to be tough in all teams.

 

 

There is 9 teams right now, that are already over the $175 cap number for next year.

 

ATL is $25m over.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/2021/

 

Colts figure there doesn't include Grover's extension

 

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34 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

While he is a 5th year guy, I'd bet they extend before given our track record. 

Normally I would agree, but with Covid (and lets be honest, there are leaders stepping in who are saying this won't be better until 2022 and they are also saying we'll NEVER go back to life before CV.  This is what they are saying, and with a long term lockdown of 6 more months that they want, the economy is going to be destroyed and the Salary cap may keep shrinking.  I don't think any money issue will be business as usual and I think many salaries are going to plummet.  

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37 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

let a couple of depth players go like carrie who tell and rogers can replace and a couple of small depth players .   the bottom line is colts are gonna have to replace houston in the draft and develop patmon and harris and other young guys and bank on cambell being healthy .  ballard is gonna have to draft a pass rusher corner and wr in the first three rounds this year .  then look for depth .  then in the draft after go tackle 1st round  and tight end .  its all gonna come down to ballards drafts , if he hits on at least two players a year being starters then the colts should be fine .

We need an LT before any of those guys and likely a TE before we draft a WR.  Not to mention QB issues. 

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11 minutes ago, JPFolks said:

That is interesting. If WE can't sign a big name, who the hell can? So these players will ALL be forced to take less and less money at the top of the market pushes down to even less money on the bottom. We should easily be able to get cheap contracts (compared to a normal year)  A guy like Hilton might sign for next to nothing unless he plans to retire. He's not going anywhere else. 

Also if you look at the link I posted above it shows how many players the teams have signed next year to go with their cap space.

 

So like the Pats they have $8m less going into next season , but they also have 5 more players signed. Couple that with some teams might have some guys they can cut lose and save some cap even more.

 

 

Colts really only have 2 playera that can get ua more cap and thats Doyle and Glowinski. Which would be about an additional $9m+.

 

 

A lot of factors.

 

Jags have $8m more cap space than us and have 5 more players signed.

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44 minutes ago, w87r said:

Valid point.

 

It isn't Rivers being selfish by not taking a huge pay cut.

 

Just at what point is he like Ive made enough money, I'll just hang em up and coach my kids.

There is precedent for Rivers taking a pay cut.   How many years did Tom Brady play at well below average money for an NFL quarterback?  If not below average, then certainly below what an elite QB makes.   Seems like there were many years.  But it has to be finessed. 
 

We’d have to reassure PR that if he gives up a little for the good of the team, that we’re going to reinvest that money into quality players.   We’ve got to be really close to the salary cap.  A place we’ve never been under Ballard.   We have to show that we’re pushing our chips in and going all in on a Super Bowl  run.   It can’t appear that we’re concerned about how much we’re spending or how much we’re profiting.

 

Should be a fascinating off-season. 

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https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/2021/

 

 

Here is this link again in case it gets caught in the shuffle.

 

 

It shows how many players each team has signed already for next season and cap space available.

 

Colts have 37 signed and $67m(Grover extension not included yet).

 

9 teams over the cap currently. Will be a lot of restructures and cap casualties.

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44 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

i only say mack because looking at the cap colts cannot afford to pay him more then 2 million . with his talent he deserves to make  more .  i think ballard is gonna move on from free agents over guys he drafted .  ballard not giving walker a deal now proves he is gone hilton and houston are likely gone , and carrie too.

Here's some of the FA RBs next year:

Kenyan Drake

Todd Gurley

Gus Edwards

TJ Yeldon

Mike Davis

Tarik Cohen

Samaje Perine

Phillip Lindsay

Adrian Peterson

Aaron Jones

Jamaal Williams

Chris Thompson

Malcolm Brown

Devonte Booker

Matt Breida

Ameer Abdullah

James White

Rex Burkhead

Ty Montgomery

Devonta Freeman

Dion Lewis

Wayne Gallman

Frank Gore

Boston Scott

James Conner

Carlos Hyde

Chris CarsonCoy

Jerick McKinnon

Tevin Coleman

Leonard Fournette

LeSean McCoy

Kyle Juszczyk

 

I like Mack a lot, but there's some heavy hitters seeking new contracts as well.  Beggars can't be choosers.  

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1 minute ago, JPFolks said:

I like Mack a lot, but there's some heavy hitters seeking new contracts as well.  Beggars can't be choosers

I like Mack as well, however I put the odds on him coming back and being a productive back after his Achilles injury at 20-25%.

 

We might sign him to a vet minimum deal but his days as a starting RB are more than likely behind him.

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37 minutes ago, w87r said:

carryover is how much cap space a team has remaining from the prior season.

 

Currently the Colts have close to $11m carrying over. Which is already figured into the $67m.

 

If we would of released Brissett, we would be careying over closer to $24m giving us $80m to spend.

Okay, duh.. my brain just wasn't connecting that. I should have known that was what you meant. Thanks!

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5 minutes ago, w87r said:

I like Mack as well, however I put the odds on him coming back and being a productive back after his Achilles injury at 20-25%.

 

We might sign him to a vet minimum deal but his days as a starting RB are more than likely behind him.

Yeah I like Mack too but I doubt we bring him back because we have Taylor now + even Hines.

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Delving a little deeper, Im sure Ballard is already on it, but we could restructure a couple guys and save some more money next year. It would tale money from future years which would potentially jeopardize Nelson, Leonard and Smith extensions.

 

Restructures:

Kelly(depending on health)

We could take his $10m base next year and turn it into $1m and spread other $9m over final 3 years of deal.

 

Which would create $9m in cap space

 

 

Saying this I know a few are worried about his health. He has no dead cap after next season so the rest of his contract is unguaranteed.

 

Ballard is a smart cookie. Locked him up but didn't put team at risk for the future.

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26 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

There is precedent for Rivers taking a pay cut.   How many years did Tom Brady play at well below average money for an NFL quarterback?  If not below average, then certainly below what an elite QB makes.   Seems like there were many years.  But it has to be finessed. 
 

We’d have to reassure PR that if he gives up a little for the good of the team, that we’re going to reinvest that money into quality players.   We’ve got to be really close to the salary cap.  A place we’ve never been under Ballard.   We have to show that we’re pushing our chips in and going all in on a Super Bowl  run.   It can’t appear that we’re concerned about how much we’re spending or how much we’re profiting.

 

Should be a fascinating off-season. 

I just read an article that said ERvers is known for maxing out his money. He seems to be way more into the Peyton Manning school of getting paid than the Brady school.  

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25 minutes ago, JPFolks said:

That is what I am not understanding... "carryover next season" is that salary that carries over or are you saying something else, please explain. 

 

19 minutes ago, JPFolks said:

That is interesting. If WE can't sign a big name, who the hell can? So these players will ALL be forced to take less and less money at the top of the market pushes down to even less money on the bottom. We should easily be able to get cheap contracts (compared to a normal year)  A guy like Hilton might sign for next to nothing unless he plans to retire. He's not going anywhere else. 

The issue is, we simply have a lot of FAs due to many reasons. I'd bet we have near the top of the league in that aspect. We could still sign a big name, but we'd have to cast off some big contributors, and sign a lot of low dollar guys.

14 minutes ago, JPFolks said:

That's just it, he WILL be dirt cheap by default because no one will have money.  If Eason has a shot to be something, he takes over, and they once again hedge their bets with a top 1/3rd back up who could win 9 games with our good defense and 7 playoff spots. I believe this year is an outlier and 9 wins usually gets into the playoffs over the long term. . 

doubt Ballard is just happy with making the playoffs.

 

I'm sure JB wants to go to a place where he can compete for a starters gig. Anyway, I don't see him back unless Eason takes over as starter, and at this point, I don't see that happening. 

9 minutes ago, JPFolks said:

Normally I would agree, but with Covid (and lets be honest, there are leaders stepping in who are saying this won't be better until 2022 and they are also saying we'll NEVER go back to life before CV.  This is what they are saying, and with a long term lockdown of 6 more months that they want, the economy is going to be destroyed and the Salary cap may keep shrinking.  I don't think any money issue will be business as usual and I think many salaries are going to plummet.  

Meh. fear mongering. We'll have meds starting in Dec. People right now aren't happy with lockdowns and are willing to risk things. When we get meds, they'll be even more resolute about being out. 

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1 hour ago, w87r said:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/2021/

 

 

Here is this link again in case it gets caught in the shuffle.

 

 

It shows how many players each team has signed already for next season and cap space available.

 

Colts have 37 signed and $67m(Grover extension not included yet).

 

9 teams over the cap currently. Will be a lot of restructures and cap casualties.

I'm surprised we towards the middle on this (37). Thought we'd be lower.

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5 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yeah I like Mack too but I doubt we bring him back because we have Taylor now + even Hines.

The plan all along was to not bring Mack back.  He would have to sign dirt cheap, which isn't likely.

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6 hours ago, JPFolks said:

We need an LT before any of those guys and likely a TE before we draft a WR.  Not to mention QB issues. 

next year we have AC still locked up it depends how far colts make it this year.   we have doyle locked up  next year and can get cox and burton back for 1 million each per season .   pass rusher makes our defense go , ballard loves corners also . i could see ballard going pass rusher, corner, tackle in what ever order is the best value  and just rolling with the young wrs maybe try and get a cheap one year veteran wr.  that is if rivers is coming back if he is not coming back colts will dump the older veterans and get younger .

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i havent had time to fully look over the salary cap but it seems odd to me that this year with jacoby taking up 20 milliion in cap space and luck taking up space as well that we have ten million cap left .  then next year losing almost 30 million with jacoby and luck we are in worse shape ?   even with grover you would think the colts would have plenty to resign every one and keep the same team in place . why are the colts worse ?

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5 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

The issue is, we simply have a lot of FAs due to many reasons. I'd bet we have near the top of the league in that aspect. We could still sign a big name, but we'd have to cast off some big contributors, and sign a lot of low dollar guys.

doubt Ballard is just happy with making the playoffs.

 

I'm sure JB wants to go to a place where he can compete for a starters gig. Anyway, I don't see him back unless Eason takes over as starter, and at this point, I don't see that happening. 

Meh. fear mongering. We'll have meds starting in Dec. People right now aren't happy with lockdowns and are willing to risk things. When we get meds, they'll be even more resolute about being out. 

at my job they said a covid vaccine will be ready in a couple weeks and offered us it.  well see how long it really takes and if it works . if it works covid will be done ,and we go back to normal.

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6 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

The issue is, we simply have a lot of FAs due to many reasons. I'd bet we have near the top of the league in that aspect. We could still sign a big name, but we'd have to cast off some big contributors, and sign a lot of low dollar guys.

doubt Ballard is just happy with making the playoffs.

 

I'm sure JB wants to go to a place where he can compete for a starters gig. Anyway, I don't see him back unless Eason takes over as starter, and at this point, I don't see that happening. 

Meh. fear mongering. We'll have meds starting in Dec. People right now aren't happy with lockdowns and are willing to risk things. When we get meds, they'll be even more resolute about being out. 

The point was that if your back up is good enough to make the playoffs if your new 2nd year QB flops, that's a guy you want. I can't see a team that would pay Brissett starter money.  We would need a backup, so why wouldn't we just hang on to Brissett as backup to Eason if he's ready?

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1 hour ago, coming on strong said:

i havent had time to fully look over the salary cap but it seems odd to me that this year with jacoby taking up 20 milliion in cap space and luck taking up space as well that we have ten million cap left .  then next year losing almost 30 million with jacoby and luck we are in worse shape ?   even with grover you would think the colts would have plenty to resign every one and keep the same team in place . why are the colts worse ?

Combination of things.

 

1. Cap is dropping $20m+

2. Buckner contract($21m)

3. Kelly extension($15m)

4. Grover extension($10m)

 

 

Thats $66m flip.

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6 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I'm surprised we towards the middle on this (37). Thought we'd be lower.

Yeah I agree.

 

 

Also though, like I said in a post above. A lot more plays into it.

 

Most of those teams have their QBs locked up in that cap space already. Some teams have some guys they can release and get more cap room. Colts only have Doyle and Glow, we could restructure Kelly to get an extra $9m but only if we feel good about his health as of now he has no guarantees money after next year.

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1 hour ago, w87r said:

Combination of things.

 

1. Cap is dropping $20m+

2. Buckner contract($21m)

3. Kelly extension($15m)

4. Grover extension($10m)

 

 

Thats $66m flip.

the cap is dropping 20 million ?  that ruins it for multiple teams , guys like rhodes and autry are not getting big offers from other teams .  this could make rivers value drop also and help us .  there is no other way around it guys have to take a pay cut .  covid ruined the nfl this year and next.

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14 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

the cap is dropping 20 million ?  that ruins it for multiple teams , guys like rhodes and autry are not getting big offers from other teams .  this could make rivers value drop also and help us .  there is no other way around it guys have to take a pay cut .  covid ruined the nfl this year and next.

There is still plenty of money to go around and like I said in post above. Most teams already have their QB situation taken care of.

 

Teams have players they can cut and secure more cap space. Colts only have 2 and a possible restructure of Kelly. 

 

If tou haven t checked the link, it is very nice in showing the landscape if the situation.

 

Jags need 11 players to fill out top 53 and have $84m in cap space. I imagine their next QB will be on rookie deal.

 

Colts have 16 players to fill out top 53 have $67m and no QB other than Eason.

 

If Rivers is not coming back next year, I think Darnold makes a lot of sense. Again as I posted somewhere in this thread.. A trade for him and he would only count for $4.7m against our cap.

 

 

We are not in good shape no matter which way you want to cut it. Things are tight.

 

Also as I've stated prior, even of Rivers were to take $15m things are still tight.

 

Some players will take lower 1 yr deals in hopes of cap going back up in 2022. Top gius will still have big 1 yr deals, as teams will want to secure them.

 

Also I think my numbers I placed on our guys was conservative numbers with this thought already in mind.

 

 

Appreciate the continued discussion on the topic Should be interesting to say the least this offseason.

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3 minutes ago, w87r said:

There is still plenty of money to go around and like I said in post above. Most teams already have their QB situation taken care of.

 

Teams have players they can cut and secure more cap space. Colts only have 2 and a possible restructure of Kelly. 

 

If tou haven t checked the link, it is very nice in showing the landscape if the situation.

 

Jags need 11 players to fill out top 53 and have $84m in cap space. I imagine their next QB will be on rookie deal.

 

Colts have 16 players to fill out top 53 have $67m and no QB other than Eason.

 

If Rivers is not coming back next year, I think Darnold makes a lot of sense. Again as I posted somewhere in this thread.. A trade for him and he would only count for $4.7m against our cap.

 

 

We are not in good shape no matter which way you want to cut it. Things are tight.

 

Also as I've stated prior, even of Rivers were to take $15m things are still tight.

 

Some players will take lower 1 yr deals in hopes of cap going back up in 2022. Top gius will still have big 1 yr deals, as teams will want to secure them.

 

Also I think my numbers I placed on our guys was conservative numbers with this thought already in mind.

 

 

Appreciate the continued discussion on the topic Should be interesting to say the least this offseason.

Hope you guys get a big W today. Love you all.

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11 hours ago, w87r said:

$175m is the floor level od how far the cap can drop. 

 

Hopefully it comes in higher, but at this point it is an unknown and have to assume that will be the case.

 

Hopefully it comes im at $185-$190m. 

 

 

Im pretty sure it will be close to that number.

I think that it will probably stay low going into 2022 as well, bit that is to be seen.

 

The NFL and NFLPA just had to set a mark. Anything lower than that would be catastrophic to the league. More than it will be anyway.

 

 

What Im trying to say ia all the money lost wont be made up even at that $175m mark so there will most likely be a couple years to recoup it.

I don’t disagree with any of this, but we also know that a vast majority of the Revenue comes from TV from commercials and is based on viewership. With attendance cut at stadiums, one would have to think/assume those fans are now watching from home. The big question is gonna be the subscriptions to things like NFL Sunday Ticket and such. Are those affected by the penny tightening caused by the shutdowns and layoffs?

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1 hour ago, w87r said:

There is still plenty of money to go around and like I said in post above. Most teams already have their QB situation taken care of.

 

Teams have players they can cut and secure more cap space. Colts only have 2 and a possible restructure of Kelly. 

 

If tou haven t checked the link, it is very nice in showing the landscape if the situation.

 

Jags need 11 players to fill out top 53 and have $84m in cap space. I imagine their next QB will be on rookie deal.

 

Colts have 16 players to fill out top 53 have $67m and no QB other than Eason.

 

If Rivers is not coming back next year, I think Darnold makes a lot of sense. Again as I posted somewhere in this thread.. A trade for him and he would only count for $4.7m against our cap.

 

 

We are not in good shape no matter which way you want to cut it. Things are tight.

 

Also as I've stated prior, even of Rivers were to take $15m things are still tight.

 

Some players will take lower 1 yr deals in hopes of cap going back up in 2022. Top gius will still have big 1 yr deals, as teams will want to secure them.

 

Also I think my numbers I placed on our guys was conservative numbers with this thought already in mind.

 

 

Appreciate the continued discussion on the topic Should be interesting to say the least this offseason.

And one other thing that may be in our benefit, there’s a BUNCH of teams that we’re going to be at or over the cap going into next year PRIOR to any drop

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1 minute ago, csmopar said:

I don’t disagree with any of this, but we also know that a vast majority of the Revenue comes from TV from commercials and is based on viewership. With attendance cut at stadiums, one would have to think/assume those fans are now watching from home. The big question is gonna be the subscriptions to things like NFL Sunday Ticket and such. Are those affected by the penny tightening caused by the shutdowns and layoffs?

Gameday tickets make up around 15% of NFL revenue.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/193364/percentage-of-ticketing-revenue-in-the-nfl-since-2006/#:~:text=In 2019%2C the revenue from,of the league's total revenue.

 

 

There is a lot that goes into it and Im not going to pretend I know it all.

 

I jist really think it will be around that $175m number.

 

I think it would of dropped more if they would've tried to recoup all this year.

 

 

I know NFLPA was pushing for losses to be spread over 10yrs to negate cap drop.

4 minutes ago, csmopar said:

And one other thing that may be in our benefit, there’s a BUNCH of teams that we’re going to be at or over the cap going into next year PRIOR to any drop

Yeah 9 teams are currently over the cap.

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4 minutes ago, w87r said:

Gameday tickets make up around 15% of NFL revenue.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/193364/percentage-of-ticketing-revenue-in-the-nfl-since-2006/#:~:text=In 2019%2C the revenue from,of the league's total revenue.

 

 

There is a lot that goes into it and Im not going to pretend I know it all.

 

I jist really think it will be around that $175m number.

 

I think it would of dropped more if they would've tried to recoup all this year.

 

 

I know NFLPA was pushing for losses to be spread over 10yrs to negate cap drop.

Yeah 9 teams are currently over the cap.

I agree. I’m just saying some of the losses *MAY* get offset to some degree via the TV ratings and revenue. Now how much, if any, remains to be seen. I don’t have any idea where the cap will fall, at one point, the number 30-35 million in a cut was being floated. I don’t think it’ll be near that much, but never know

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  • w87r changed the title to Colts 2021 Salary Cap Forecast/Discussion **Updated pg 6**
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