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By EastStreet · Posted
Nah. In Watson's 4 years, he had 3 years of better QBR ratings than Luck ever had. Same with Passer Rating. Watson has a higher TD% and lower INT%. Better AVG and ANY/A too. And Watson's rushing TD avg/game is almost twice that of Luck's. Luck was good. Watson was just easily better. -
By NewColtsFan · Posted
I know you believe it is accurate. You wouldn’t have posted it otherwise. I’d explain the other point of view but someone would come along accusing me of trying to get everyone to think as I do. Nothing could be further from the truth, a difference of opinion is what makes the world go around. I’d simply say this... our difference of opinion is the gap of the Grand Canyon. It’s not a small difference, it’s a gigantic difference. So I’m fine with you believing what you do. There are others here who share the same opinion as you, so you’re not alone. So keep being Brash and Bold. You do you. Good luck! -
Brandon Graham is another good comp. Good all around player who gets a lot of pressures, but doesn't have the finishing ability of a great pass rusher. He's never had a double digit sack season, and even in the years when he's close, he still has an average PRP. I used Trey Flowers as a comp because of his three cone (Graham 7.01; Flowers 7.34; Lawson 7.46). And because he was the hot commodity when he was a free agent a couple years ago, and there was talk of his being able to produce more sacks in a different situation, and that hasn't been the case. I wanted Flowers, but I wouldn't sign a player with this profile for big money. Lawson might be the best edge on the roster, but that's more a reflection of the lack of good edges on the roster. He'd be a 7-8 sack guy. Just coming back to pressures/disruption, I think it's very dangerous to not account for the wide range of outcomes on plays where the QB is pressured. In general, QB performance drops when the QB is pressured, but the results are very scattered. Some games, the QB is under a lot of pressure, but is still very productive and makes a lot of plays. Look at all the plays Watson made against our defense, and his biggest plays came when he was pressured. We got a ton of pressure on him, and actually converted a good percentage into sacks, but in two games there were 30 plays on which he was pressured, but wasn't sacked. He completed 64% of his pressured attempts for 12 yards per, and passer rating of 89. Watson is a special playmaker, but it illustrates the point that not all pressures are negative plays for the offense. In fact, a pressure that doesn't get finished can easily hurt the defense. On the other hand, a player who has a lot of sacks but a relatively low amount of pressures is probably a fluke. No one is going to convert 40% of their pressures into sacks over an extended period of time, so if a guy has 25 pressures and 12 sacks, that's probably an outlier. Justin Houston and Denico Autry don't get enough pressures to expect them to be 8-9 sack players every year. If you could provide context on all 64 of Lawson's pressures in 2020, you'll probably see a good half of them were hits right after the QB released the ball, or he got a step on the blocker and maybe a hand on the QB, but the QB moved and Lawson couldn't bend/change direction enough to finish the play. Probably five are unblocked reps. And in general, when you have a guy with a lot of pressures, but low sacks, it's because he can't finish consistently. And that guy doesn't become a good finisher in Year 5. Maybe there's an outlier 10 or 11 sack season here or there -- Erik Walden had an 11 sack season at one point -- but he's not going to transform into a really dangerous pass rusher out of the blue. If you pay big money for that guy, you're going to be disappointed. -
Only about ten days from hearing from Wentz and Reich. I can’t wait. 7 days until the tampering period starts. -
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