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Opening Line Colts vs GB


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We could lose this game but I also think the Titans will lose to the Ravens. As long as we win our remaining division games we control things. Another win over Tennessee, sweep the Texans, and beat the Jags gets us 10 wins right there and division is ours just with that. If we lose to the Packers I am not going to cry about it or troll like some will, crap happens lmao . Losing to Rodgers wouldn't surprise me.

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8 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

We could lose this game but I also think the Titans will lose to the Ravens. As long as we win our remaining division games we control things. Another win over Tennessee, sweep the Texans, and beat the Jags gets us 10 wins right there and division is ours just with that. If we lose to the Packers I am not going to cry about it or troll like some will, crap happens lmao . Losing to Rodgers wouldn't surprise me.

Sweeping the rest of our divisional games is a tall order.  Its certainly possible but we still dont have the offensive identity or consistency to make it a certainty.

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7 minutes ago, Sumo63 said:

Sweeping the rest of our divisional games is a tall order.  Its certainly possible but we still dont have the offensive identity or consistency to make it a certainty.

I agree for the most part, I think at worse we split with the Texans. Beating the Titans again is a huge a key because we really control things then. 

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Indy minus - 1 on espn line opened Green Bay -2

1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I agree for the most part, I think at worse we split with the Texans. Beating the Titans again is a huge a key because we really control things then. 

Have to beat Texans twice they are real bad 

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Rewatching previous games where Xavier Rhodes covered Davonte Adams he did OK as long as you have Julian Blackmon cover over the top.  Xavier has played him many times and so its going to be a battle out there. 

 

I see the Colts winning this game. The Packers are not playing well as of late with an easy remaining schedule with a two game divisional lead. 

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1 hour ago, coltfaninnewyork said:

Indy minus - 1 on espn line opened Green Bay -2

Have to beat Texans twice they are real bad 

started last week at -3.

still minus 1.5 and 2.0 at several books.

most thought it would get heavy action on GB

the bet % has since moved to the Colts (54%). 

if that continues, the line will move back 

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2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

 

here's the one I first quoted . As you see GB opened 2.5 and is now mostly Ind -1.5. I figured it would move to even . Surprises me it moved this much...

 

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

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8 minutes ago, dw49 said:

 

 

here's the one I first quoted . As you see GB opened 2.5 and is now mostly Ind -1.5. I figured it would move to even . Surprises me it moved this much...

 

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

I posted the initial lines last week. It was IN -3 then. It's been all over the place since the others came out today. 

It'll likely end up Indy -2.5 to -3.5 IMO, but I would guess it continues to fluctuate with both early and late money. 

When it started at IN -3, the money went GB. Then went down and bet%  back to Indy. Currently bet % in IN at 54%

The bet % was high on Balt  this week, and I'm surprised the line barely moved. I guess the smart guys in Vegas felt NE was going to cover and let it ride. Either that or the money was more even that the bet %. Looks like they were right as NE is up 10.

 

 

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3 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Does this mean we are giving 3 points a d Colts have to win by 4 to pay out? I’m not much of a better at all

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17 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I posted the initial lines last week. It was IN -3 then. It's been all over the place since the others came out today. 

It'll likely end up Indy -2.5 to -3.5 IMO, but I would guess it continues to fluctuate with both early and late money. 

When it started at IN -3, the money went GB. Then went down and bet%  back to Indy. Currently bet % in IN at 54%

The bet % was high on Balt  this week, and I'm surprised the line barely moved. I guess the smart guys in Vegas felt NE was going to cover and let it ride. Either that or the money was more even that the bet %. Looks like they were right as NE is up 10.

 

 

 

The initial line when I posted the thread was GB-2.5. Went to Ind -2.5 and now around 1. 

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5 minutes ago, Jdubu said:

Does this mean we are giving 3 points a d Colts have to win by 4 to pay out? I’m not much of a better at all

Yep. You got it right. It's already moved though. It's anywhere between -1 and -2.5 depending on the book.

I don't bet anymore except when I go to Vegas or the horses, but I still follow the lines as they are a pretty good predictor.

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56 minutes ago, dw49 said:

 

 

here's the one I first quoted . As you see GB opened 2.5 and is now mostly Ind -1.5. I figured it would move to even . Surprises me it moved this much...

 

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/

I've followed all the books since last week and none ever had GB-2.5. The link you shared doesn't say who's book it was that had -2.5 for GB, but OK.

 

If you look on the same site you posted at the line histories, nothing shows GB-2.5 ??

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/packers-@-colts.cfm/date/11-22-20

 

VI doesn't show history prior to the Sunday a week before the game, so doesn't make much sense they would show GB-2.5 on their vanilla "open", and not have that at all for any of the book history.

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13 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I've followed all the books since last week and none ever had GB-2.5. The link you shared doesn't say who's book it was that had -2.5 for GB, but OK.

 

If you look on the same site you posted at the line histories, nothing shows GB-2.5 ??

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/packers-@-colts.cfm/date/11-22-20

 

VI doesn't show history prior to the Sunday a week before the game, so doesn't make much sense they would show GB-2.5 on their vanilla "open", and not have that at all for any of the book history.

 

Not to say it's impossible for that site to be posting bogus lines , but how could they give sources for what the line opened at in that format ? Anyway , not a big deal.

 

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5 minutes ago, dw49 said:

 

Not to say it's impossible for that site to be posting bogus lines , but how could they give sources for what the line opened at in that format ? Anyway , not a big deal.

I follow VI too. Not trying to argue, just telling you what I've seen the last week, and pointing out the inconsistency between different places on the same site. As far as the sources, you can normally find that info on the link I just posted, which is why I said it was strange (the inconsistency). So it's either 1) they made an error, 2) or the opening line they show on one page came from a source they don't follow the history on (which would be very odd).

 

It's the first time I've ever seen that on VI.

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One thing I'm going to say is that the GB/Jax game had terrible rain and wind. It really affected the game negatively, so don't take it as a positive for us that the Packers played down to the Jaguars level or whatever. It was strictly weather-related. Like our chances a lot to make the playoffs, but I don't trust the lines here. I know the Colts too well, and we haven't faced a passing QB like Rodgers yet. Most people here are going to be surprised when he puts up 300 yards and 3 tds Vs this defense and 30 points. The line is misleading, and the sharp bettors will figure this out before next Sunday.

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1 hour ago, Jared Cisneros said:

One thing I'm going to say is that the GB/Jax game had terrible rain and wind. It really affected the game negatively, so don't take it as a positive for us that the Packers played down to the Jaguars level or whatever. It was strictly weather-related. Like our chances a lot to make the playoffs, but I don't trust the lines here. I know the Colts too well, and we haven't faced a passing QB like Rodgers yet. Most people here are going to be surprised when he puts up 300 yards and 3 tds Vs this defense and 30 points. The line is misleading, and the sharp bettors will figure this out before next Sunday.

He put up 300 yesterday in that wind.  One was a LONG one to MVS but still.  I think Rodgers will get his.  That's a given.  But I think if we can hold Jones and Williams down, that will work in our favor.  Jags were also able to get a lot of pressure on him, so that will be key as well.  I also like that Rhodes knows Adams well.  On the other side of the ball, Jags' Robinson was able to run for 100 yds and averaged 4.7 ypc.   The running game would be our friend in this one.  

 

Pack are beatable if the Colts don't turn the ball over more than once IMHO.

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11 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I follow VI too. Not trying to argue, just telling you what I've seen the last week, and pointing out the inconsistency between different places on the same site. As far as the sources, you can normally find that info on the link I just posted, which is why I said it was strange (the inconsistency). So it's either 1) they made an error, 2) or the opening line they show on one page came from a source they don't follow the history on (which would be very odd).

 

It's the first time I've ever seen that on VI.

 

I'm thinking it could be the first line released and it changed in a matter of minutes. Sports books are super ... super  paranoid with that opening line as the "smart money  will "kill" any mistake they make. My son is a professional poker player and has many friends that are highly involved in sports betting. There are betting entities out there that give them 10% of the wagers they can get down with bookies that are "lax" in changing their opening lines. They absolutely kill the bets that are placed. Trouble is it's hard to find enough bookies that don't realize after a couple of weeks they are taking bets that significantly move against them. For sure these are brilliant minds with software that kills inaccurate lines. Could be that is the case ? Or maybe as you say , they made a mistake ? Seems weird they would just post a bad number there but anything is possible I guess. I'm pretty familiar with sports betting as I've been on both sides of that fence for decades but I never did that "line tracking" like you exhibited .. so I can't say that i've seen this happen before. What I can say is that I've seen some big very big moves from what this site gives as an "opening line" compared to the one they post from all the different betting sites. As much as 4 point swings in the matter of a few hours from when it was first posted. When I first check the site , it just gave the "opening lines" on most of the games ... no lines from the different sports books. Was like minutes after the late games ended .  

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16 hours ago, Sumo63 said:

Sweeping the rest of our divisional games is a tall order.  Its certainly possible but we still dont have the offensive identity or consistency to make it a certainty.

I agree. Houston can score, I think they are at least 90% as good as us or TN.  Remember, TN lost their punter and his mistakes led to 14 points for us.  Our division is much tighter talent than folks seem to think.  Additionally, 9 teams in the AFC have at least 6 wins.  One slip up and we could be 9th in a blink. We've lost 2 important tie breakers we can't make up. The next TN game is like a playoff game due to not only our division, but also the AFC tie breakers.  Our 3 AFC losses are a big problem.  Winning the division might be the only way in for us. 

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10 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

One thing I'm going to say is that the GB/Jax game had terrible rain and wind. It really affected the game negatively, so don't take it as a positive for us that the Packers played down to the Jaguars level or whatever. It was strictly weather-related. Like our chances a lot to make the playoffs, but I don't trust the lines here. I know the Colts too well, and we haven't faced a passing QB like Rodgers yet. Most people here are going to be surprised when he puts up 300 yards and 3 tds Vs this defense and 30 points. The line is misleading, and the sharp bettors will figure this out before next Sunday.

 

 

My hope is that the Colts come out fired up. Frank usually does well after bye weeks, so im curious to see if the team does better after long weeks as well. 

 

That, along with the fact the Colts haven't beaten a serious team yet this year, they might just be out to prove something. 

 

I like our chances vs GB.

 

The Colts are all about rhythm? They have an opportunity to build some momentum going into TN and into the playoffs. 

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I am going to play devil's advocate.

 

There seems to be some recency bias in that line...like they are angry about GB not covering the huge spread against JAC on Sunday. 

 

I think GB is better on defense than they get credit for...but this game is really about their offense vs. the Colts defense. So I will throw this stat out there...while Rodgers gets credit for playing well in rough weather...he has a career passer rating of 107 playing indoors...including 126 this year. He's amazing playing in a dome.

 

GB is also #4 in adjusted sack rate. But even if the Colts could get to Rodgers...he hardly ever turns the ball over. 

 

And GB's STs are far better than TEN's. So it's hard to see where the much-needed TOs will come from. It's going to be about getting GB off the field on 3rd down.

 

The one area where the Colts should have a big advantage that would allow them to dictate the game (their run game against GB's run defense)...is in a bit of flux right now and has been all year. So it will be difficult to take advantage of GB's biggest weakness.

 

I mean...objectively...I think GB has a big advantage in this game. And I think it's crazy that they aren't favored...even if it's only 1-2 points. But that's why they play them.

 

 

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2 hours ago, JPFolks said:

I agree. Houston can score, I think they are at least 90% as good as us or TN.  Remember, TN lost their punter and his mistakes led to 14 points for us.  Our division is much tighter talent than folks seem to think.  Additionally, 9 teams in the AFC have at least 6 wins.  One slip up and we could be 9th in a blink. We've lost 2 important tie breakers we can't make up. The next TN game is like a playoff game due to not only our division, but also the AFC tie breakers.  Our 3 AFC losses are a big problem.  Winning the division might be the only way in for us. 

We dominated Tennessee.  Total yds 430-290.  The shank helped, but that was right after a failed 1 yd TD.  The blocked put was great, but the only thing that kept Tenn in the game in the first half was penalties.  After their opening drive script, We DOMINATED that game as much as anybody was dominated last week.

 

I watch the Pack most weeks because my 12 year is a fan.  They aren't that good. They have Aaron Rodgers and a pretty average defense.  

 

I don't know how good we are, but I will say, we are better than I feared before the Baltimore game.

 

 

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14 hours ago, AustexColt said:

Davonte Adams has ankle issues and maybe an issue. If he does not play or he is limited that will help us tremendously. He is ARodgers go to guy.   Colts win this Sunday

Got to stop GB run game.

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the colts honestly need this game to prove themselves .   looking at the colts wins only titans have a winning record the bears are 5-5 now so the colts only beat one team with a winning record .  this is why people do not believe in the colts .  Colts need to prove they can beat a great team and beating green bay would prove it .

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2 hours ago, coming on strong said:

the colts honestly need this game to prove themselves .   looking at the colts wins only titans have a winning record the bears are 5-5 now so the colts only beat one team with a winning record .  this is why people do not believe in the colts .  Colts need to prove they can beat a great team and beating green bay would prove it .

I don't think the Packers are a great team, outside of Rivers driving that offense into top 3 range they are quite mediocre in fact.  Their run game is mediocre.  Their defense is mediocre.  They don't really scare me at all tbh.

 

The fan fear I'm seeing round these parts re: Rogers is due to the love fest offenses get in the media.  But defenses around this time of year start to really make themselves known.  One of my favorite stats for a quick reference of a defense is passer rating against and that metric the Colts are 1st in the league.  I realize they've faced some crappy offenses, granted, but they shut down Tannehill rather nicely and that team was playing with a lot of confidence going into that game.

 

If your metric is them beating a great team I am afraid you might have to wait for the Steelers game.  We might lose vs Green Bay but I think that game has plenty of indicators in Indy's favor.

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On 11/15/2020 at 9:27 PM, AustexColt said:

Rewatching previous games where Xavier Rhodes covered Davonte Adams he did OK as long as you have Julian Blackmon cover over the top.  Xavier has played him many times and so its going to be a battle out there. 

 

I see the Colts winning this game. The Packers are not playing well as of late with an easy remaining schedule with a two game divisional lead. 

Scantling is a solid deep threat and they will probably have Lazard back.  Not to mention Jones out of the backfield. They have lots of weapons and will be a real test for our defense

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16 hours ago, Boondoggle said:

I don't think the Packers are a great team, outside of Rivers driving that offense into top 3 range they are quite mediocre in fact.  Their run game is mediocre.  Their defense is mediocre.  They don't really scare me at all tbh.

 

The fan fear I'm seeing round these parts re: Rogers is due to the love fest offenses get in the media.  But defenses around this time of year start to really make themselves known.  One of my favorite stats for a quick reference of a defense is passer rating against and that metric the Colts are 1st in the league.  I realize they've faced some crappy offenses, granted, but they shut down Tannehill rather nicely and that team was playing with a lot of confidence going into that game.

 

If your metric is them beating a great team I am afraid you might have to wait for the Steelers game.  We might lose vs Green Bay but I think that game has plenty of indicators in Indy's favor.

Baltimore told us plenty. They are not scrubs. We did well against the run and the D overall played winning football.  The offense did not, led by bad play calling in large part and no utilizing of our complete weapons.  I do think GB is beatable as are all teams.  I don't see a complete team outside of KC whose overly dominant Offense is like the Borg and will assimilate you.  But even they got beat.  Pitt is quite flawed but the have our number mentally it seems so I see those two in a tier separate from the rest of the league. Somehow no one else is as good evaluating skill positions year in and out as those two teams. RBs, WRs, TEs for days with those two it seems. They've even ressurected Ebron to some extent.   The most dominant player in the league however is Travis Kelce. I think he's better than Gronk because he's way more durable. 

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On 11/16/2020 at 11:28 AM, NannyMcafee said:

 

 

My hope is that the Colts come out fired up. Frank usually does well after bye weeks, so im curious to see if the team does better after long weeks as well. 

 

That, along with the fact the Colts haven't beaten a serious team yet this year, they might just be out to prove something. 

 

I like our chances vs GB.

 

The Colts are all about rhythm? They have an opportunity to build some momentum going into TN and into the playoffs. 

Im ok losingcto greenbay.  The Steelers  are who I'd love to beat more.

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