Colts vs Ravens Matchup Info: Stats, ranks, Covid, Injuries

[EastStreet]

Starting with the elephant in the room... Covid

 

Baltimore - specifics farther below in the injury area, but in short, Pro-Bowl LCB Humprey's looks to be out for Sunday which would be a huge loss for their pass D. 7 others, including 4 starters (all on D), and three #2s, were added to the list. Judon, starting Probowl SAM/OLB returned to practice yesterday after also being on the list. That's probably not a good sign for the remaining assuming all were tested at the same time. And if what I read was correct, all of the remaining 6 will be at minimum absent from all practices even if they can return to play on Sunday.

 

Indy - no confirmed player cases, and none added to the Covid/reserve list, but we know Nelson, Pittman, Lewis, and Day have all been held out of practice. Assume we should know something later today.

 

Line: Ravens -2 (this could change due to Covid)
O/U: 48

 

Colts Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total Yards - #17 vs #7
Passing Yards - #11 vs #10
Rushing Yards - #25 vs #7
Points - #10 vs #2

 

Colts Defense vs Ravens Offense
Total Yards - #2 vs #20
Passing Yards - #6 vs #31
Rushing Yards - #2 vs #1
Points - #5 vs #8

 

Colts sacks PG allowed vs Ravens sacks PG
#1 least (1.1) vs #4 (3.4)
Colts sacks PG vs vs Ravens sacks PG allowed
#11 (2.6) vs #20 (2.7)
Colts QB INTs vs Ravens Defensive INTs
#20 (0.9) vs #26 (0.4)
Colts Defensive INTs vs Ravens QB INTs
#1 (1.6) vs #14 (0.7)
Colts RZ O vs Ravens RZ D
#22 vs #31
Colts RZ D vs Ravens RZ O
#19 vs #14
Colts 3rd Down O vs Ravens 3rd Down D
#20 vs #4
Colts 3rd Down D vs Ravens 3rd Down O
#17 vs #12

General Notes
1. Our passing O is trending up in the last two games, so much we are now approaching top 10 status. That's a good thing as the Ravens pass D is less a threat than their run D, and they simply haven't got a lot of INTs (#26). Assuming they are without Probowl LCB, and given his backup might be out too, CB could be a huge problem for then. Add in starting FS also is on the list, and their secondary could be a huge weakness. 
2. Our passing D at the same time is trending down. IIRC, we were 2nd last week, and now 6th. The good news is, Jackson hasn't been a threat passing wise, so we may be able to move back up. 
3. Our rushing O has been trending down. Not sure the play calling has helped, and the rumors of JT's health seem more and more true. Raven's rush D is good, so likely even more important that our pass O do well. Ravens possibly being without starting MLB and WILL due to Covid could make things easier for us here and in pass pro. 
4. Ravens rush O is #1 in the league, but, but Jackson has been less of a threat than in the past. Our rush D is probably the most solid of all Colts units on both sides of the ball, so it will be interesting to see how the #1 vs #2 pans out.
5. We've seen "good Philip" the last two games, and the Ravens don't get a lot of INTs. Ravens are #4 in sacks, while our OL is #1 in not giving up sacks. Injuries/covid could factor here as well. 4 of their top 6 sackers are now on the Covid list. This along with point 4 above are probably the keys to the game for both teams.
6. Ravens are one of the worst in the league at RZ D, while our RZ O has been improving. Ravens 3rd down D however is top 5, so hard to get in the RZ in the first place. 
 

Injuries. 

Baltimore
Added to Covid Reserve List this week
Starters - LCB Humphrey, FS Elliot, MLB Queen, SAM Judon (returned yesterday), WLB Fort,
Depth - WLB2 Harrison, SAM2 Bowser, LCB2 Dorsey

General Injuries

LT - Stanley out. Brown will move from RT to LT. Fluker will start at RT.
RB - Ingram has an ankle issue, and DNP the last two days. They have two other very capable runners.
WR/RS - Moore has a thigh issue and DNP yesterday
NIR? (contact tracing?) - DE Campbell, DT Williams, CB Smith

 

Indy 
Held out - Nelson, Day, Lewis, Pittman
Rest - Blackmon, Burton, Houston, 
Dulin - Knee - DNP/DNP
Hilton - Groin - DNP/DNP
Alie-Cox - Knee - LP/DNP
Johnson - Knee - NA/DNP
Taylor - Ankle - LP/FP
Wilkins - Groin - LP/FP
Kelly - Knee - LP/FP

Prediction Colts O vs Ravens D
Again, not sure what to expect from our O. Will Reich continue to let Rivers be Rivers like we've seen the past two weeks? Or will we try to force the run vs one of the better run Ds. I'd think this is a game where Rivers has to set up the run, not vice versa. The Ravens blitz more than any team in the NFL, blitzing about 45% of the time. Can the OL hold the line? They've looked less than preseason #1 ranking so far this year, and their performance will be key. This is one of the times having low time to throw QB who is good at reading Ds, is a huge benefit. IMO, we'll need a fair amount of chunk plays given the Raven's 3rd down D. Those might be difficult if our OL is not holding up. If we're limited to short dink and dunk, I don't like our chances. Our chances are best if we can get up and force Baltimore away from their run heavy typical game plan, and that likely requires "good Rivers". Covid could change a lot, given their potential DB and LB losses. Pass D may end up being crippled, pass rush impacted, while the run D could also be impacted. Conversely, potentially losing a guy like Q could hurt big time as well.

 

Prediction Colts D vs Ravens O
Jackson doesn't appear to be near the threat this year he once was. Their O as a whole, after being ranked #2 last year, is now #20.  That's not saying we should take Jackson, or their O lightly. Their rush O is still #1, and Jackson can eat up a soft zone short to intermediate. Losing LT Stanley hurt big time. Orlando Brown, their starting RT will shift. He's capable, but there will be a drop off, not to mention playing a new spot. DJ Fluker, an OT/OG combo depth player, will  start at RT. Given Jackson's scramble abilities, probably more of an impact to their rush O than passing O. You have to think someone will be assigned to spy Jackson. He is still their leading rusher.

 

Keys to the game (for Indy)
1. "Good Rivers" will need to be unleashed. Don't force the run. A good first down mix, 2nd and short chunk plays. Take advantage of backup DBs.
2. When we do run it, run it to the right edge or over LG. If Balt has weak spots, those are the areas. They are strongest defending the runs over LT and left edge. Not sure yet how Covid LBers will impact this. We need Q to play well vs what is in front of him, and also pulling right.
3. On D, spy Jackson, and make him beat you with his arm. Assume we'll see more single high looks, and possibly more man.
4. If there was ever a team to sell out against the run, this is probably it. 
5. In a game like this, you have to win the ST's battle. No bad snaps, no missed kicks, don't allow big returns. Sanchez is #2 in the NFL punting punts inside the 20, need to keep that up.

 

Score Prediction - who knows till we know more about the Covid situations for both teams.
 

[chad72]

It seems like the middle of the Ravens pass defense is where you need to attack if their key LBs do not play. 

 

Ravens might hold back on their level of blitzing (more like 30% instead of 40% ) since we don't have guys that can take the top off and play coverage but when they do blitz, I feel Burton and Doyle underneath will have to play big roles by looking back for the ball quickly enough. MAC's routes typically take time and he is not the type who looks back as a hot read on a blitz, most likely he is the extra guy protecting the QB, IMO. Otherwise Rivers will be sacked plenty of times with coverage sacks. Cannot run 15-25 yard routes against that D, have to be more like 10-15 yard routes and quick comebacks. Once you see them squatting, you can take a shot. 

[Nickster]

Yeah, I drafted Jackson too early and he's been nothing short of pedestrian as a fantasy scorer.  It seems that that must reflect at least the Ravens output as a unit at the least, but it is probably also a function of Jackson's performance.

 

I'd be interested to know what is going on out there.  Is he not running as much purposefully?  Is he simply not as good?

 

Are defenses defending their gimmick offense better?  (History shows that in a year or so this would likely be the case.)

 

What is it?   any one got any ideas?

[EastStreet]

8 minutes ago, chad72 said:

It seems like the middle of the Ravens pass defense is where you need to attack if their key LBs do not play. 

 

Ravens might hold back on their level of blitzing (more like 30% instead of 40% ) since we don't have guys that can take the top off and play coverage but when they do blitz, I feel Burton and Doyle underneath will have to play big roles by looking back for the ball quickly enough. MAC's routes typically take time and he is not the type who looks back as a hot read on a blitz, most likely he is the extra guy protecting the QB, IMO. Otherwise Rivers will be sacked plenty of times with coverage sacks. Cannot run 15-25 yard routes against that D, have to be more like 10-15 yard routes and quick comebacks. Once you see them squatting, you can take a shot. 

If the LCB1, LCB2, and FS1 are all out, you have to attack deep. Not saying go deep a bunch, but you have to get more chunk plays than in games past. If we get into a slug fest with our dink and dunk vs their run game, I just don't like our chances.

 

I think we have plenty of guys who can take the top off. We just don't run those routes. Any 4.4s guy or better (TY, Johnson, Dulin, Harris, Hines) can run a nine route and get behind the DBs. Any 6-2+ guy low 4.5s (Pittman, Patmon) and decent "ups" can run a nine route for a 50/50 ball. We're talking about potentially a 3rd string DB playing, and 2nd string FS. If that happens, can't waste those gifts.

 

Mo's routes didn't take a long time. At least those intermediate sail routes didn't. If that were the call, he wouldn't be the hot read anyway. It's more likely you have a RB or X, or even another TE that's your safety valve. And just about every team they've played with a decent QB has put up a few chunk plays per game. If 4 of their top 6 sackers are out, doubt they blitz as much. And if they do, it won't be near as effective vs our OL (if they play up to their potential). If the short to intermediate stuff is wide open, then take it, but If they are missing 2 LBs and 2 DBs, all of whom are blitzers, not that worried.

[chad72]

13 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Yeah, I drafted Jackson too early and he's been nothing short of pedestrian as a fantasy scorer.  It seems that that must reflect at least the Ravens output as a unit at the least, but it is probably also a function of Jackson's performance.

 

I'd be interested to know what is going on out there.  Is he non running as much purposefully?  Are he simply not as good?

 

Are defenses defending their gimmick offense better?  (History shows that in a year or so this would likely be the case.)

 

What is it?   any one got any ideas?

 

Their OL play, once Yanda retired, has not been the same. They used to get a stalemate at the line of scrimmage with the extra X factor of Lamar making plays. Now Lamar is seeing more guys in his face and not getting clear passing or running lanes, not nearly as much as last year and his decision making has gotten rushed. So, now they are going back to their identity of more running lately but are forced to do so with more blockers.

[Nickster]

1 minute ago, chad72 said:

 

Their OL play, once Yanda retired, has not been the same. They used to get a stalemate at the line of scrimmage with the extra X factor of Lamar making plays. Now Lamar is seeing more guys in his face and not getting clear passing or running lanes, not nearly as much as last year and his decision making has gotten rushed. So, now they are going back to their identity lately but having to do with more blockers.

that sounds wonderful for Sunday

[EastStreet]

18 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Yeah, I drafted Jackson too early and he's been nothing short of pedestrian as a fantasy scorer.  It seems that that must reflect at least the Ravens output as a unit at the least, but it is probably also a function of Jackson's performance.

 

I'd be interested to know what is going on out there.  Is he non running as much purposefully?  Are he simply not as good?

 

Are defenses defending their gimmick offense better?  (History shows that in a year or so this would likely be the case.)

 

What is it?   any one got any ideas?

The majority of his core passing and running stats are simply not as good. His QBR has dropped off a ton too. His sack and INT % have increased while his TD% has decreased. Should only get tougher on him after losing his LT. 

[coming on strong]

5 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Starting with the elephant in the room... Covid

 

Baltimore - specifics farther below in the injury area, but in short, Pro-Bowl LCB Humprey's looks to be out for Sunday which would be a huge loss for their pass D. 7 others, including 4 starters (all on D), and three #2s, were added to the list. Judon, starting Probowl SAM/OLB returned to practice yesterday after also being on the list. That's probably not a good sign for the remaining assuming all were tested at the same time. And if what I read was correct, all of the remaining 6 will be at minimum absent from all practices even if they can return to play on Sunday.

 

Indy - no confirmed player cases, and none added to the Covid/reserve list, but we know Nelson, Pittman, Lewis, and Day have all been held out of practice. Assume we should know something later today.

 

Line: Ravens -2 (this could change due to Covid)
O/U: 48

 

Colts Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total Yards - #17 vs #7
Passing Yards - #11 vs #10
Rushing Yards - #25 vs #7
Points - #10 vs #2

 

Colts Defense vs Ravens Offense
Total Yards - #2 vs #20
Passing Yards - #6 vs #31
Rushing Yards - #2 vs #1
Points - #5 vs #8

 

Colts sacks PG allowed vs Ravens sacks PG
#1 least (1.1) vs #4 (3.4)
Colts sacks PG vs vs Ravens sacks PG allowed
#11 (2.6) vs #20 (2.7)
Colts QB INTs vs Ravens Defensive INTs
#20 (0.9) vs #26 (0.4)
Colts Defensive INTs vs Ravens QB INTs
#1 (1.6) vs #14 (0.7)
Colts RZ O vs Ravens RZ D
#22 vs #31
Colts RZ D vs Ravens RZ O
#19 vs #14
Colts 3rd Down O vs Ravens 3rd Down D
#20 vs #4
Colts 3rd Down D vs Ravens 3rd Down O
#17 vs #12

General Notes
1. Our passing O is trending up in the last two games, so much we are now approaching top 10 status. That's a good thing as the Ravens pass D is less a threat than their run D, and they simply haven't got a lot of INTs (#26). Assuming they are without Probowl LCB, and given his backup might be out too, CB could be a huge problem for then. Add in starting FS also is on the list, and their secondary could be a huge weakness. 
2. Our passing D at the same time is trending down. IIRC, we were 2nd last week, and now 6th. The good news is, Jackson hasn't been a threat passing wise, so we may be able to move back up. 
3. Our rushing O has been trending down. Not sure the play calling has helped, and the rumors of JT's health seem more and more true. Raven's rush D is good, so likely even more important that our pass O do well. Ravens possibly being without starting MLB and WILL due to Covid could make things easier for us here and in pass pro. 
4. Ravens rush O is #1 in the league, but, but Jackson has been less of a threat than in the past. Our rush D is probably the most solid of all Colts units on both sides of the ball, so it will be interesting to see how the #1 vs #2 pans out.
5. We've seen "good Philip" the last two games, and the Ravens don't get a lot of INTs. Ravens are #4 in sacks, while our OL is #1 in not giving up sacks. Injuries/covid could factor here as well. 4 of their top 6 sackers are now on the Covid list. This along with point 4 above are probably the keys to the game for both teams.
6. Ravens are one of the worst in the league at RZ D, while our RZ O has been improving. Ravens 3rd down D however is top 5, so hard to get in the RZ in the first place. 
 

Injuries. 

Baltimore
Added to Covid Reserve List this week
Starters - LCB Humphrey, FS Elliot, MLB Queen, SAM Judon (returned yesterday), WLB Fort,
Depth - WLB2 Harrison, SAM2 Bowser, LCB2 Dorsey

General Injuries

LT - Stanley out. Brown will move from RT to LT. Fluker will start at RT.
RB - Ingram has an ankle issue, and DNP the last two days. They have two other very capable runners.
WR/RS - Moore has a thigh issue and DNP yesterday
NIR? (contact tracing?) - DE Campbell, DT Williams, CB Smith

 

Indy 
Held out - Nelson, Day, Lewis, Pittman
Rest - Blackmon, Burton, Houston, 
Dulin - Knee - DNP/DNP
Hilton - Groin - DNP/DNP
Alie-Cox - Knee - LP/DNP
Johnson - Knee - NA/DNP
Taylor - Ankle - LP/FP
Wilkins - Groin - LP/FP
Kelly - Knee - LP/FP

Prediction Colts O vs Ravens D
Again, not sure what to expect from our O. Will Reich continue to let Rivers be Rivers like we've seen the past two weeks? Or will we try to force the run vs one of the better run Ds. I'd think this is a game where Rivers has to set up the run, not vice versa. The Ravens blitz more than any team in the NFL, blitzing about 45% of the time. Can the OL hold the line? They've looked less than preseason #1 ranking so far this year, and their performance will be key. This is one of the times having low time to throw QB who is good at reading Ds, is a huge benefit. IMO, we'll need a fair amount of chunk plays given the Raven's 3rd down D. Those might be difficult if our OL is not holding up. If we're limited to short dink and dunk, I don't like our chances. Our chances are best if we can get up and force Baltimore away from their run heavy typical game plan, and that likely requires "good Rivers". Covid could change a lot, given their potential DB and LB losses. Pass D may end up being crippled, pass rush impacted, while the run D could also be impacted. Conversely, potentially losing a guy like Q could hurt big time as well.

 

Prediction Colts D vs Ravens O
Jackson doesn't appear to be near the threat this year he once was. Their O as a whole, after being ranked #2 last year, is now #20.  That's not saying we should take Jackson, or their O lightly. Their rush O is still #1, and Jackson can eat up a soft zone short to intermediate. Losing LT Stanley hurt big time. Orlando Brown, their starting RT will shift. He's capable, but there will be a drop off, not to mention playing a new spot. DJ Fluker, an OT/OG combo depth player, will  start at RT. Given Jackson's scramble abilities, probably more of an impact to their rush O than passing O. You have to think someone will be assigned to spy Jackson. He is still their leading rusher.

 

Keys to the game (for Indy)
1. "Good Rivers" will need to be unleashed. Don't force the run. A good first down mix, 2nd and short chunk plays. Take advantage of backup DBs.
2. When we do run it, run it to the right edge or over LG. If Balt has weak spots, those are the areas. They are strongest defending the runs over LT and left edge. Not sure yet how Covid LBers will impact this. We need Q to play well vs what is in front of him, and also pulling right.
3. On D, spy Jackson, and make him beat you with his arm. Assume we'll see more single high looks, and possibly more man.
4. If there was ever a team to sell out against the run, this is probably it. 
5. In a game like this, you have to win the ST's battle. No bad snaps, no missed kicks, don't allow big returns. Sanchez is #2 in the NFL punting punts inside the 20, need to keep that up.

 

Score Prediction - who knows till we know more about the Covid situations for both teams.
 

Do you know if Turay is gonna be activated this week ?

[Nickster]

5 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

The majority of his core passing and running stats are simply not as good. His QBR has dropped off a ton too. His sack and INT % have increased while his TD% has decreased. Should only get tougher on him after losing his LT. 

One would think that would be the case.  This doesn't seem like a really great team to me right now.

 

They smoked the Browns in game 1 and that was there best win to date.  They struggled with Philly and beat Wash, Cinn, and Hous besides.  Not overly impressive from a wins standpoint.

 

They did compete well v. the two best teams in the NFL KC and Pitt losing by less than a TD.  Excellent losses I guesss.

 

[chad72]

Just now, Nickster said:

One would think that would be the case.  This doesn't seem like a really great team to me right now.

 

They smoked the Browns in game 1 and that was there best win to date.  They struggled with Philly and beat Wash, Cinn, and Hous besides.  Not overly impressive from a wins standpoint.

 

They did compete well v. the two best teams in the NFL KC and Pitt losing by less than a TD.  Excellent losses I guess.

 

 

Both of those were at home. They were trailing heavily in the KC game by 2 TDs and managed to cut down the deficit. Steelers game, they were ahead 17-7 but could not hold the lead due to Lamar's turnovers.

 

Objectively, we got one heck of a shot to win this game at home!!! Just wish we could have more crowd noise.  

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I am so excited for this game. Jackson is bad against the blitz so we need to blitz more often. 

[EastStreet]

39 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

Do you know if Turay is gonna be activated this week ?

Haven't see anything yet. Just heard he's at practice, looks good, and there's a chance.... 

[Nickster]

27 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I am so excited for this game. Jackson is bad against the blitz so we need to blitz more often. 

Yeah, last year he was the best in the league against the blitz.  This year he's terrible.  It must be a combo of teams figuring it out and poorer line play.  My guess would be an emphasis on the former.

[EastStreet]

41 minutes ago, Nickster said:

One would think that would be the case.  This doesn't seem like a really great team to me right now.

 

They smoked the Browns in game 1 and that was there best win to date.  They struggled with Philly and beat Wash, Cinn, and Hous besides.  Not overly impressive from a wins standpoint.

 

They did compete well v. the two best teams in the NFL KC and Pitt losing by less than a TD.  Excellent losses I guesss.

I think it's a combo of things. While it's technically his 3rd year, it's kind of a sophomore slump. Teams have adjusted to them. And their D, while still very good, is not as dominant as last year. 

[kboy24]

You'll get great Rivers if the O line keeps him upright he will burn any defense, Talking Smack all day long. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

TY is doubtful. Johnson has a gimpy knee and Dulin is out. Harris will probably get called up and maybe Patmon finally gets to play.

[Chrisaaron1023]

51 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

TY is doubtful. Johnson has a gimpy knee and Dulin is out. Harris will probably get called up and maybe Patmon finally gets to play.

Time for Pittman to Breakout.. But I feel like Phil favors TE's and RB's more he rarely looks at #11 lol

[krunk]

4 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

Their OL play, once Yanda retired, has not been the same. They used to get a stalemate at the line of scrimmage with the extra X factor of Lamar making plays. Now Lamar is seeing more guys in his face and not getting clear passing or running lanes, not nearly as much as last year and his decision making has gotten rushed. So, now they are going back to their identity of more running lately but are forced to do so with more blockers.

I noticed how much the Steelers were disrupting the pocket when i was looking at the film. Weve got the DL to do similar.

[Dogg63]

Baldy's take on the NFL's 2nd best rushing D going up against the best rushing O

 

 

[EastStreet]

8 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

TY is doubtful. Johnson has a gimpy knee and Dulin is out. Harris will probably get called up and maybe Patmon finally gets to play.

Pascal, Pittman, and Hines will all need to step up. 

Might be a game where Hines needs to line up at slot or one of the other spots.

 

I hate that Dulin is ruled out. This could have been a nice game for him.

TY, and Johnson gimpy really hurt on the outside.

 

I'd love to see Patmon get a shot, but this is not the game I'd hoped he get some snaps. This is why I wish they would have got him some experience earlier.

 

Haven't seen anything about Harris temping back up.

7 hours ago, Chrisaaron1023 said:

Time for Pittman to Breakout.. But I feel like Phil favors TE's and RB's more he rarely looks at #11 lol

TEs and RBs are just part of Reich's O. And also part of PR's game. PR does like Xs if you look back. Pittman just hasn't been available much. Give him time. Sounds like he'll be key this week simply due to the availability of others.

5 hours ago, krunk said:

I noticed how much the Steelers were disrupting the pocket when i was looking at the film. Weve got the DL to do similar.

Pitt (#3) and Ravens (#1) are both top blitzing teams in the league. We are 28th. 

5 hours ago, Dogg63 said:

Baldy's take on the NFL's 2nd best rushing D going up against the best rushing O

 

 

I like the matchup since early this season. Going to be fun.

[EastStreet]

Sounds like the Ravens are confident most if not all (except for Humphrey) will be fine, and back for the game. 

None practiced this week though.

 

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/ravens/nonsense-sp-ravens-john-harbaugh-reserve-covid-colts-20201106-ldhqffm37reyvdi2dlm37wmc6i-story.html

[krunk]

42 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Pascal, Pittman, and Hines will all need to step up. 

Might be a game where Hines needs to line up at slot or one of the other spots.

 

I hate that Dulin is ruled out. This could have been a nice game for him.

TY, and Johnson gimpy really hurt on the outside.

 

I'd love to see Patmon get a shot, but this is not the game I'd hoped he get some snaps. This is why I wish they would have got him some experience earlier.

 

Haven't seen anything about Harris temping back up.

TEs and RBs are just part of Reich's O. And also part of PR's game. PR does like Xs if you look back. Pittman just hasn't been available much. Give him time. Sounds like he'll be key this week simply due to the availability of others.

Pitt (#3) and Ravens (#1) are both top blitzing teams in the league. We are 28th. 

I like the matchup since early this season. Going to be fun.

It wasn't all blitz. Several times it was just 4 man pressure

[EastStreet]

41 minutes ago, krunk said:

It wasn't all blitz. Several times it was just 4 man pressure

When a team blitzes a lot (40+%), the opposing O is always out of their comfort zone, and always wondering what's going to come, and where it's coming from. They can't simply focus on the front four even when only 4 is coming. And if you're comparing to Pitt, who runs a 3-4, you never know which LB is coming as the 4th. 

 

When a team doesn't blitz a lot, the opposing O can focus and get in a rhythm. When they are playing a 4-3, and the team blitzes less than 20% like we do, it's just a lot easier.

 

It would be nice if we were at least middle of the pack (30ish%). 

[krunk]

2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

When a team blitzes a lot (40+%), the opposing O is always out of their comfort zone, and always wondering what's going to come, and where it's coming from. They can't simply focus on the front four even when only 4 is coming. And if you're comparing to Pitt, who runs a 3-4, you never know which LB is coming as the 4th. 

 

When a team doesn't blitz a lot, the opposing O can focus and get in a rhythm. When they are playing a 4-3, and the team blitzes less than 20% like we do, it's just a lot easier.

 

It would be nice if we were at least middle of the pack (30ish%). 

You think they are wondering that on 3rd and long out the shotgun formation?  That's a bit more obvious.

They were getting beat on line stunts and sometimes 3 man pressure with a late green dog.  It wan't all that

exotic to be honest.  I think they are a better run blocking team than they are pass blocking.  All that running

just masks some of it and keeps them out of those positions where they have to pass themselves out of it.

[krunk]

Personally I think we can get to them doing what we do and some zone defense.  Bucky Brooks was on NFLN

stating Jackson still struggles with that and has struggled with that all the way back to college. 

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, krunk said:

You think they are wondering that on 3rd and long out the shotgun formation?  That's a bit more obvious.

They were getting beat on line stunts and sometimes 3 man pressure with a late green dog.  It wan't all that

exotic to be honest.  I think they are a better run blocking team than they are pass blocking.  All that running

just masks some of it and keeps them out of those positions where they have to pass themselves out of it.

No, of course not. Everyone assumes a blitz on 3rd and long. My point is still the same. OLs can get into a groove when playing us, more so than against a team that blitzes at more than 2x the rate we do.

 

We're middle of the pack in sacks, which is good given how little we blitz. At the same time, we've played a lot of bad OLs. Only one good one, so even middle of the pack isn't great at all.

 

With Stanley being out, Brown sliding over, and Flukey now starting a RT, we should have an easier time. Not sure losing Philips at RG was that big of deal, as he was the weak link. Mekari might be better.

[EastStreet]

9 minutes ago, krunk said:

Personally I think we can get to them doing what we do and some zone defense.  Bucky Brooks was on NFLN

stating Jackson still struggles with that and has struggled with that all the way back to college. 

Yep, his improvement in passing last year looks to be perhaps flukish. He has been able to pick apart stuff underneath, so I hope our zone isn't too soft. Looking at his stats this year, looks like he's been trying for more chunk plays too. Underneath, I can see him trying to pick on a few specific folks. If he's going to go deep/chunk, I hope Blackmon learned from last week. You have to think they saw that during film day lol. 

[krunk]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

Yep, his improvement in passing last year looks to be perhaps flukish. He has been able to pick apart stuff underneath, so I hope our zone isn't too soft. Looking at his stats this year, looks like he's been trying for more chunk plays too. Underneath, I can see him trying to pick on a few specific folks. If he's going to go deep/chunk, I hope Blackmon learned from last week. You have to think they saw that during film day lol. 

They do have some pretty decent personnel if they want to try some chunks.  I'll give them that. 

[EastStreet]

16 minutes ago, krunk said:

They do have some pretty decent personnel if they want to try some chunks.  I'll give them that. 

Of course I'm a Boykin fan lol. 

Surprised Snead is still around and fighting. Not really fast, not big, but just seems to get it done.

I think Devin Duvernay is gimpy, so there goes one of their deep threats. Moore, and WR/Return guy is also doubtful.

[krunk]

6 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Of course I'm a Boykin fan lol. 

Surprised Snead is still around and fighting. Not really fast, not big, but just seems to get it done.

I think Devin Duvernay is gimpy, so there goes one of their deep threats. Moore, and WR/Return guy is also doubtful.

Boykin and Hollywood Brown

[jskinnz]

17 hours ago, EastStreet said:

The majority of his core passing and running stats are simply not as good. His QBR has dropped off a ton too. His sack and INT % have increased while his TD% has decreased. Should only get tougher on him after losing his LT. 

 

The Ravens starting RG got hurt last week and went on IR as well. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

We don’t blitz much but we have players that are good at it. After watching tape Eberflus has to know we need to do more this game. He can’t wait to the second half and figure it out. We won’t come back against the ravens. We also have a lot of int and Jackson struggled last game with that. Leonard and Moore should be blitzing a lot. Watch  for the strip fumbles with Leonard also.

[Dogg63]

So, basically trading one ST ace for another (Dulin out, Adams in), and I guess this means no Turay tomorrow.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Titans are struggling without Lewan and are playing a tough Bears defense. Such a huge opportunity to win this game and be first in our division. That would set us up nice going into Thursday night.  If we win and titans lose we may actually be sitting at the third or fjord of fourth seed.

[Dogg63]

 

[EastStreet]

11 hours ago, jskinnz said:

 

The Ravens starting RG got hurt last week and went on IR as well. 

I think the guy coming in might be better. He's a 2019 draft pick, and their RG has been their weak link I think.

33 minutes ago, Dogg63 said:

 

Wouldn't doubt if they are looking for a specific matchup advantage. I'm sure he's hungry.

[jskinnz]

13 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I think the guy coming in might be better. He's a 2019 draft pick, and their RG has been their weak link I think.

Wouldn't doubt if they are looking for a specific matchup advantage. I'm sure he's hungry.

Time will tell if the new guard is better - or hungrier whatever that means. 
 

But the fact is they have 40% new players from those that started the Steelers game last week. And they moved their RT to LT so in theory have a lesser line in 3 of the 5 spots. 
 

Their overall line is far weaker than last week. Does not mean they can’t or won’t play well today but they are not as good. 

[PRnum1]

On 11/6/2020 at 7:27 AM, EastStreet said:

Starting with the elephant in the room... Covid

 

Baltimore - specifics farther below in the injury area, but in short, Pro-Bowl LCB Humprey's looks to be out for Sunday which would be a huge loss for their pass D. 7 others, including 4 starters (all on D), and three #2s, were added to the list. Judon, starting Probowl SAM/OLB returned to practice yesterday after also being on the list. That's probably not a good sign for the remaining assuming all were tested at the same time. And if what I read was correct, all of the remaining 6 will be at minimum absent from all practices even if they can return to play on Sunday.

 

Indy - no confirmed player cases, and none added to the Covid/reserve list, but we know Nelson, Pittman, Lewis, and Day have all been held out of practice. Assume we should know something later today.

 

Line: Ravens -2 (this could change due to Covid)
O/U: 48

 

Colts Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total Yards - #17 vs #7
Passing Yards - #11 vs #10
Rushing Yards - #25 vs #7
Points - #10 vs #2

 

Colts Defense vs Ravens Offense
Total Yards - #2 vs #20
Passing Yards - #6 vs #31
Rushing Yards - #2 vs #1
Points - #5 vs #8

 

Colts sacks PG allowed vs Ravens sacks PG
#1 least (1.1) vs #4 (3.4)
Colts sacks PG vs vs Ravens sacks PG allowed
#11 (2.6) vs #20 (2.7)
Colts QB INTs vs Ravens Defensive INTs
#20 (0.9) vs #26 (0.4)
Colts Defensive INTs vs Ravens QB INTs
#1 (1.6) vs #14 (0.7)
Colts RZ O vs Ravens RZ D
#22 vs #31
Colts RZ D vs Ravens RZ O
#19 vs #14
Colts 3rd Down O vs Ravens 3rd Down D
#20 vs #4
Colts 3rd Down D vs Ravens 3rd Down O
#17 vs #12

General Notes
1. Our passing O is trending up in the last two games, so much we are now approaching top 10 status. That's a good thing as the Ravens pass D is less a threat than their run D, and they simply haven't got a lot of INTs (#26). Assuming they are without Probowl LCB, and given his backup might be out too, CB could be a huge problem for then. Add in starting FS also is on the list, and their secondary could be a huge weakness. 
2. Our passing D at the same time is trending down. IIRC, we were 2nd last week, and now 6th. The good news is, Jackson hasn't been a threat passing wise, so we may be able to move back up. 
3. Our rushing O has been trending down. Not sure the play calling has helped, and the rumors of JT's health seem more and more true. Raven's rush D is good, so likely even more important that our pass O do well. Ravens possibly being without starting MLB and WILL due to Covid could make things easier for us here and in pass pro. 
4. Ravens rush O is #1 in the league, but, but Jackson has been less of a threat than in the past. Our rush D is probably the most solid of all Colts units on both sides of the ball, so it will be interesting to see how the #1 vs #2 pans out.
5. We've seen "good Philip" the last two games, and the Ravens don't get a lot of INTs. Ravens are #4 in sacks, while our OL is #1 in not giving up sacks. Injuries/covid could factor here as well. 4 of their top 6 sackers are now on the Covid list. This along with point 4 above are probably the keys to the game for both teams.
6. Ravens are one of the worst in the league at RZ D, while our RZ O has been improving. Ravens 3rd down D however is top 5, so hard to get in the RZ in the first place. 
 

Injuries. 

Baltimore
Added to Covid Reserve List this week
Starters - LCB Humphrey, FS Elliot, MLB Queen, SAM Judon (returned yesterday), WLB Fort,
Depth - WLB2 Harrison, SAM2 Bowser, LCB2 Dorsey

General Injuries

LT - Stanley out. Brown will move from RT to LT. Fluker will start at RT.
RB - Ingram has an ankle issue, and DNP the last two days. They have two other very capable runners.
WR/RS - Moore has a thigh issue and DNP yesterday
NIR? (contact tracing?) - DE Campbell, DT Williams, CB Smith

 

Indy 
Held out - Nelson, Day, Lewis, Pittman
Rest - Blackmon, Burton, Houston, 
Dulin - Knee - DNP/DNP
Hilton - Groin - DNP/DNP
Alie-Cox - Knee - LP/DNP
Johnson - Knee - NA/DNP
Taylor - Ankle - LP/FP
Wilkins - Groin - LP/FP
Kelly - Knee - LP/FP

Prediction Colts O vs Ravens D
Again, not sure what to expect from our O. Will Reich continue to let Rivers be Rivers like we've seen the past two weeks? Or will we try to force the run vs one of the better run Ds. I'd think this is a game where Rivers has to set up the run, not vice versa. The Ravens blitz more than any team in the NFL, blitzing about 45% of the time. Can the OL hold the line? They've looked less than preseason #1 ranking so far this year, and their performance will be key. This is one of the times having low time to throw QB who is good at reading Ds, is a huge benefit. IMO, we'll need a fair amount of chunk plays given the Raven's 3rd down D. Those might be difficult if our OL is not holding up. If we're limited to short dink and dunk, I don't like our chances. Our chances are best if we can get up and force Baltimore away from their run heavy typical game plan, and that likely requires "good Rivers". Covid could change a lot, given their potential DB and LB losses. Pass D may end up being crippled, pass rush impacted, while the run D could also be impacted. Conversely, potentially losing a guy like Q could hurt big time as well.

 

Prediction Colts D vs Ravens O
Jackson doesn't appear to be near the threat this year he once was. Their O as a whole, after being ranked #2 last year, is now #20.  That's not saying we should take Jackson, or their O lightly. Their rush O is still #1, and Jackson can eat up a soft zone short to intermediate. Losing LT Stanley hurt big time. Orlando Brown, their starting RT will shift. He's capable, but there will be a drop off, not to mention playing a new spot. DJ Fluker, an OT/OG combo depth player, will  start at RT. Given Jackson's scramble abilities, probably more of an impact to their rush O than passing O. You have to think someone will be assigned to spy Jackson. He is still their leading rusher.

 

Keys to the game (for Indy)
1. "Good Rivers" will need to be unleashed. Don't force the run. A good first down mix, 2nd and short chunk plays. Take advantage of backup DBs.
2. When we do run it, run it to the right edge or over LG. If Balt has weak spots, those are the areas. They are strongest defending the runs over LT and left edge. Not sure yet how Covid LBers will impact this. We need Q to play well vs what is in front of him, and also pulling right.
3. On D, spy Jackson, and make him beat you with his arm. Assume we'll see more single high looks, and possibly more man.
4. If there was ever a team to sell out against the run, this is probably it. 
5. In a game like this, you have to win the ST's battle. No bad snaps, no missed kicks, don't allow big returns. Sanchez is #2 in the NFL punting punts inside the 20, need to keep that up.

 

Score Prediction - who knows till we know more about the Covid situations for both teams.
 

Great writeup eaststreet.

 

Nice job on writing about the matchups within the matchup.

 

I see this as a game where we need to shutdown the run and make Jackson a pocket passer.

 

We need to give Rivers decent protection like we have the past 2 games. We can't have a jailbreak like the Browns game although I suspect that was because AC was out.

 

On paper this looks like a very favorable match up for us.

[EastStreet]

6 hours ago, jskinnz said:

Time will tell if the new guard is better - or hungrier whatever that means. 
 

But the fact is they have 40% new players from those that started the Steelers game last week. And they moved their RT to LT so in theory have a lesser line in 3 of the 5 spots. 
 

Their overall line is far weaker than last week. Does not mean they can’t or won’t play well today but they are not as good. 

I agree on the OL being weaker. Just having Fluker in is big drop off. Orlando Brown was being groomed and is good, but even if good, 1st week of shifting certainly should mean a drop off.

 

The hungry comment was about Dez coming up.

[EastStreet]

5 hours ago, PrNum1 said:

Great writeup eaststreet.

 

Nice job on writing about the matchups within the matchup.

 

I see this as a game where we need to shutdown the run and make Jackson a pocket passer.

 

We need to give Rivers decent protection like we have the past 2 games. We can't have a jailbreak like the Browns game although I suspect that was because AC was out.

 

On paper this looks like a very favorable match up for us.

thanks my friend.

 

we're outrushing them so far. Balt only has 18 yards!

 

and yep, I've liked the matchup all year. even predicted a win before the season started. we'll see though. got a half to go